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At least 289 records · Page 16

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NASA NTRS1999

On the Dome Effect of Flux Radiometers to Radiative Forcing

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 micrometers) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 micrometers) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate forcing. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 10-20 W m (exp -2)). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NE delta T) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measurements can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. For example, we show a method to determine the "dome factor" (the longwave emission divided by the longwave transmission of a pyrgeometer dome) from field measurements. The results show, and are verified independently by the QWIP, that our dome factors of 0.59 and 0.90 are much smaller than the value of 4.0 assumed by the WMO (World Meteorological Organization). Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

On the Dome Effect of Flux Radiometers to Radiative Forcing

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 microns) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 microns) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate forcing. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 10-20 W/square Meter). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWIP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NE delta T) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measurements can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. For example, we show a method to determine the "dome factor" (the longwave emission divided by the longwave transmission of a pyrgeometer dome) from field measurements. The results show, and are verified independently by the QWIP, that our dome factors of 0.59 and 0.90 are much smaller than the value of 4.0 assumed by the WMO. Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Characterization of Thermal Parameters for Improving Pyranometer and Pyrgeometer Measurements

Since the introduction of thermopile, pyranometers (solar, e.g., 0.3-3.0 micrometers) and pyrgeometers (terrestrial, e.g., 4-50 micrometers) have become instruments commonly used for measuring the broadband hemispherical irradiances at the surface in a long-term, monitoring mode for decades. These commercially available radiometers have been manufactured in several countries such as from the United States, Asia, and Europe, and are generally reliable and economical. These worldwide distributions of surface measurements become even more important in the era of Earth remote sensing in studying climate change. However, recent studies from field campaigns have pointed out that erroneous factors (e.g., temperature gradients between the filter dome and detector, emissivity of the thermopile) are responsible for the unacceptable level of uncertainty (e.g., 20 W m(exp -2)). Using a newly developed instrument of Quantum Well Infrared Photodetector (QWTP), we have characterized the brightness temperature fields of pyranometers and pyrgeometers under various sky conditions. The QWIP is based on the superlattice (GaAs/AlGaAs) technology and has a noise equivalent temperature (NEAT) less than 0.1 K. The quality of pyranometer and pyrgeometer measure- ments can be improved largely by applying proper knowledge of the thermal parameters affecting the operation of the thermopile systems. Data correction procedure and algorithm will be presented and discussed.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

NASA NTRS2000

Thermal Characteristics of Pyranometers and Pyrgeometers in Atmosphere-Surface Energetic Measurements

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

NASA NTRS2003

Electrical Breakdown in a Martian Gas Mixture

The high probability for dust interactions during Martian dust storms and dust devils combined with the cold, dry climate of Mars most likely result in airborne dust that is highly charged. On Earth, potential gradients up to 5 kV/m have been recorded and in some cases resulted in lightning. Although the Martian atmosphere is not conducive to lightning generation, it is widely believed that electrical discharge in the form of a corona occurs. In order to understand the breakdown of gases, Paschen measurements are taken which relate the minimum potential required to spark across a gap between two electrodes. The minimum potential is plotted versus the pressure-distance value for electrodes of a given geometry. For most gases, the potential decreases as the pressure decreases. For CO2, the minimum in the curve happens to be at Mars atmospheric pressures (5-7 mm Hg) for many distances and geometries. However, a very small amount (<0.1%) of mixing gases radically changes the curve, as noted by Leach. Here, we present the first experimental results of a Paschen curve for a Mars gas mixture compared with 100% pure CO2.

Buhler, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forest Age Rivals Climate to Explain Reproductive Allocation Patterns in Forest Ecosystems Globally

ABSTRACT Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction (carbon required for flowers, fruits, and seeds) is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well‐supported trade‐off with allocation to growth. Here, we present the first global synthesis of a biometric proxy for forest reproductive allocation (RA) across environmental and stand age gradients from a compiled dataset of 824 observations across 393 sites. We find that ecosystem‐scale RA increases ~60% from boreal to tropical forests. Climate shows important non‐linear relationships with RA, but is not the sole predictor. Forest age effects are comparable to climate in magnitude (MAT: ß = 0.24,p = 0.021; old growth forest: ß = 0.22,p < 0.001), while metrics of soil fertility show small but significant relationships with RA (soil pH: ß = 0.07,p = 0.001; soil N: ß = −0.07,p = 0.001). These results provide strong evidence that ecosystem‐scale RA is mediated by climate, forest age, and soil conditions, and is not a globally fixed fraction of positive NPP as assumed by most vegetation and ecosystem models. Our dataset and findings can be used by modellers to improve predictions of forest regeneration and carbon cycling.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2019

Differentiating spatial from environmental effects on foliar fungal communities of Populus trichocarpa

Abstract Aim Foliar fungi – pathogens, endophytes, epiphytes – form taxonomically diverse communities that affect plant health and productivity. The composition of foliar fungal communities is variable at spatial scales both small (e.g. individual plants) and large (e.g. continents), yet few studies have attempted to tease apart spatial from climatic factors influencing these communities. Moreover, few studies have sampled in more than 1 year to gauge interannual variation in community structure. Location The Pacific Northwest of western North America. Taxon Foliar fungi associated with the deciduous tree Populus trichocarpa . Methods In two consecutive years, we used DNA metabarcoding to characterize foliar fungal communities of Populus trichocarpa across its geographic range, which encompasses a sharp climatic transition as it crosses the Cascade Mountain Range. We used multivariate analyses to (a) test for and differentiate spatial and environmental factors affecting community composition and (b) test for temporal variation in community composition across spatial and environmental gradients. Results In both study years, we found that foliar fungal community composition varied among sites and between regions (east vs. west of the Cascades). We found that climate explained more variation in community composition than geographic distance, although the majority of variation explained by each was shared. We also found that interannual variation in community composition depended on environmental context: communities located in the dry, eastern portion of the tree's geographic range varied more between study years than those located in the wet, western portion of the tree's range. Main conclusions Our results suggest that the environment plays a greater role in structuring foliar fungal communities than dispersal limitation.

Barge, Edward G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Escarpment evolution on high-elevation rifted margins: Insights derived from a surface processes model that combines diffusion, advection and reaction

Experiments with a surface processes model of large-scale (1-1000 km) long-term (1-100 m.y.) erosional denudation are used to establish the controls on the evolution of a model escarpment that is related to the rifting of a continent. The mdoel describes changes in topographic form as a result of sumultaneous short- and long-range mass transport representing hillslope (diffusive) processes and fluvial transport (advection), repsectively. Fluvial entrainment is modeled as a first-order kinetic reaction which reflects the erodibility of the substrate, and therefore the fluvial system is not necessarily carrying at capacity. One dimensional and planform models demonstrate that the principal controls on the evolution of an initially steep model escarpment are (1) antecedent topography/drainage; (2) the timesale (or equivalently a length scale) in the fluvial entrainment reaction; (3) the flexural response of the lithosphere to denudation; and (4) the relative efficiencies of the short- and long-range transport processes. When rainfall and substrate lithology are uniform, a significant amount of discharge draining over the escarpment top causes it to degrade. Only when the top of the model escarpment coincides with a drainage divide can escarpment retreat occur for these conditions. An additional requirement for retreat of a model escarpment without decline is a long reaction time scale for fluvial entrainment. This corresponds to a substrate that is hard to detach by flucial erosion, and therefore to fluvial erosion that is not transport limited. Coninuous backtilting of an escarpment due ot flexural isostatic uplift in response to denudational unloading helps maintain the scarp top as a divide. It is essntial if the escarpment gradient is to be preserved during retreat in a uniform lithology. Low flexural rigidieties propote steep and slowly retreating escarpments. For given rainfall and substrate conditions, the morphology of a retraeating model escarpment is determined by the ratio of hte short-range diffusive and long range advective transport efficiencies. A low ration (which is interpreted to correspond to a more humid, temperate climate) produces a convex upper slope, and concave lower slope morphology and only major escarpments are predicted to preserve a high scarp gradient. Lithological contrasts in hte model produce more complex morphologies and predict the formation of scarps crowned by an erosionaly resistant caprock. However, resistant caprocks are not an essential requirement for model scarps to retreat. We conclude that the inferred controls and model behavior are both consistent with the present-day morphology of rifted continental margins and with modern conceptual models of landscape evolution.

Kooi, Henk↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate warming threatens the persistence of a community of disturbance-adapted native annual plants

With ongoing climate change, populations are expected to exhibit shifts in demographic performance that will alter where a species can persist. This presents unique challenges for managing plant populations and may require ongoing interventions, including in situ management or introduction into new locations. However, few studies have examined how climate change may affect plant demographic performance for a suite of species, or how effective management actions could be in mitigating climate change effects. Over the course of two experiments spanning 6 yr and four sites across a latitudinal gradient in the Pacific Northwest, United States, here we manipulated temperature, precipitation, and disturbance intensity, and quantified effects on the demography of eight native annual prairie species. Each year we planted seeds and monitored germination, survival, and reproduction. We found that disturbance strongly influenced demographic performance and that seven of the eight species had increasingly poor performance with warmer conditions. Across species and sites, we observed 11% recruitment (the proportion of seeds planted that survived to reproduction) following high disturbance, but just 3.9% and 2.3% under intermediate and low disturbance, respectively. Moreover, mean seed production following high disturbance was often more than tenfold greater than under intermediate and low disturbance. Importantly, most species exhibited precipitous declines in their population growth rates (λ) under warmer-than-ambient experimental conditions and may require more frequent disturbance intervention to sustain populations. Aristida oligantha, a C4 grass, was the only species to have λ increase with warmer conditions. These results suggest that rising temperatures may cause many native annual plant species to decline, highlighting the urgency for adaptive management practices that facilitate their restoration or introduction to newly suitable locations. Frequent and intense disturbances are critical to reduce competitors and promote native annuals’ persistence, but even such efforts may prove futile under future climate regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Validation and Application of Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Temperature Gradients in the Bering Strait and Bering Sea

The Arctic is one of the most important regions in the world’s oceans for understanding the impacts of a changing climate. Yet, it is also difficult to measure because of extreme weather and ice conditions. In this work, we directly compare four datasets from the Group for High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature (GHRSST) with a NASA Saildrone deployment along the Alaskan Coast and the Bering Sea and Bering Strait. The four datasets used are the Remote Sensing Systems Microwave Infrared Optimally Interpolated (MWIR) product, the Canadian Meteorological Center (CMC) product, the Daily Optimally Interpolated Product (DOISST), and the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product. Spatial sea surface temperature (SST) gradients were derived for both the Saildrone deployment and GHRSST products, with the GHRSST products collocated with the Saildrone deployment. Overall, statistics indicate that the OSTIA product had a correlation of 0.79 and a root mean square difference of 0.11 °C/km when compared with Saildrone. CMC had the highest correlation of 0.81. Scatter plots indicate that OSTIA had the slope closest to one, thus best reproducing the magnitudes of the Saildrone gradients. Differences increased at latitudes > 65°N where sea ice would have a greater impact. A trend analysis was then performed on the gradient fields. Overall, positive trends in gradients occurred in areas along the coastal regions. A negative trend occurred at approximately 60°N. A major finding of this study is that future work needs to revolve around the impact of changing ice conditions on SST gradients. Another major finding is that a northward shift in the southern ice edge occurred after 2010 with a maxima at approximately 2019. This indicates that the shift of the southern ice edge is not gradual but has dramatically increased over the last decade. Future work needs to revolve around examining the possible causes for this northward shift.

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of the vertical gradients of photosynthetic parameters on the CO 2 assimilation and transpiration of a Panamanian tropical forest

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) include the representation of vertical gradients in leaf traits associated with modeling photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal conductance. However, model assumptions associated with these gradients have not been tested in complex tropical forest canopies. Here we compared TBM representation of the vertical gradients of key leaf traits with measurements made in a tropical forest in Panama, and then quantified the impact of the observed gradients on simulated canopy scale CO 2 and water fluxes. Comparison between observed and TBM trait gradients showed divergence that impacted canopy scale simulations of water vapor and CO 2 exchange. Notably, the ratio between the dark respiration rate and the maximum carboxylation rate was lower near the ground than at the top-of-canopy, leaf-level water-use efficiency was markedly higher at the top-of-canopy, and the decrease in maximum carboxylation rate from the top-of-canopy to the ground was less than TBM assumptions. The representation of the gradients of leaf traits in TBMs is typically derived from measurements made within-individual plants, or, for some traits, assumed constant due to a lack of experimental data. Our work shows that these assumptions are not representative of the trait gradients observed in species-rich, complex tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observed Increase in Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Sea Surface Cooling Near the U.S. Southeast Coast

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Mediterranean grassland soil C–N compound turnover is dependent on rainfall and depth, and is mediated by genomically divergent microorganisms

Soil microbial activity drives the carbon and nitrogen cycles and is an important determinant of atmospheric trace gas turnover, yet most soils are dominated by microorganisms with unknown metabolic capacities. Even Acidobacteria, among the most abundant bacteria in soil, remain poorly characterized, and functions across groups such as Verrucomicrobia, Gemmatimonadetes, Chloroflexi and Rokubacteria are understudied. Here, we have resolved 60 metagenomic and 20 proteomic data sets from a Mediterranean grassland soil ecosystem and recovered 793 near-complete microbial genomes from 18 phyla, representing around one-third of all microorganisms detected. Importantly, this enabled extensive genomics-based metabolic predictions for these communities. Acidobacteria from multiple previously unstudied classes have genomes that encode large enzyme complements for complex carbohydrate degradation. In contrast, most microorganisms encode carbohydrate esterases that strip readily accessible methyl and acetyl groups from polymers like pectin and xylan, forming methanol and acetate, the availability of which could explain the high prevalence of C 1 metabolism and acetate utilization in genomes. Microorganism abundances among samples collected at three soil depths and under natural and amended rainfall regimes indicate statistically higher associations of inorganic nitrogen metabolism and carbon degradation in deep and shallow soils, respectively. This partitioning decreased in samples under extended spring rainfall, indicating that long-term climate alteration can affect both carbon and nitrogen cycling. As a whole, by leveraging natural and experimental gradients with genome-resolved metabolic profiles, we link microorganisms lacking prior genomic characterization to specific roles in complex carbon, C 1 , nitrate and ammonia transformations, and constrain factors that impact their distributions in soil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Infectious Disease Forecasting Methods across Locations, Diseases, and Time

Accurate infectious disease forecasting can inform efforts to prevent outbreaks and mitigate adverse impacts. This study compares the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML), and deep learning (DL) approaches in forecasting infectious disease incidences across different countries and time intervals. We forecasted three diverse diseases: campylobacteriosis, typhoid, and Q-fever, using a wide variety of features (n = 46) from public datasets, e.g., landscape, climate, and socioeconomic factors. We compared autoregressive statistical models to two tree-based ML models (extreme gradient boosted trees [XGB] and random forest [RF]) and two DL models (multi-layer perceptron and encoder–decoder model). The disease models were trained on data from seven different countries at the region-level between 2009–2017. Forecasting performance of all models was assessed using mean absolute error, root mean square error, and Poisson deviance across Australia, Israel, and the United States for the months of January through August of 2018. The overall model results were compared across diseases as well as various data splits, including country, regions with highest and lowest cases, and the forecasted months out (i.e., nowcasting, short-term, and long-term forecasting). Overall, the XGB models performed the best for all diseases and, in general, tree-based ML models performed the best when looking at data splits. There were a few instances where the statistical or DL models had minutely smaller error metrics for specific subsets of typhoid, which is a disease with very low case counts. Feature importance per disease was measured by using four tree-based ML models (i.e., XGB and RF with and without region name as a feature). The most important feature groups included previous case counts, region name, population counts and density, mortality causes of neonatal to under 5 years of age, sanitation factors, and elevation. This study demonstrates the power of ML approaches to incorporate a wide range of factors to forecast various diseases, regardless of location, more accurately than traditional statistical approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Dynamics of planetary atmospheres

The overall goal is to illuminate the mechanisms that control weather and climate on the Earth and other planets. Each planet presents its own puzzling behavior - the stability of jets and vortices in Jupiter's otherwise turbulent atmosphere, the superrotation of the Venus atmosphere, the interplay of dust, polar volatiles, and climate change in Mars, the supersonic meteorology of Io, and the counterintuitive equator-to-pole temperature gradients on the outer planets. The data sets are generally those obtained from spacecraft - cloud-tracked winds, radiometrically inferred temperatures, and the results of in situ observations where appropriate. The approach includes both data analysis and modeling, ranging from analytic modeling to time-dependent numerical modeling of atmospheric dynamics. The latter approach involves the use of supercomputers such as the San Diego Cray. Progress is generally made when a model with a small number of free parameters either fits a data set that has a large number of independent observations or applies to several planets at once.

Ingersoll, Andrew P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Hydrological Variations in Australia Recovered by GRACE High-Resolution Mascons Solutions

Australia represents a challenging region in which to study hydrological variations as recovered by the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) mission data. Much of Australia is characterized by relatively small hydrological signals, with large precipitation gradients between the North and the South. These signals are better recovered using innovative GRACE processing techniques such as high-resolution mascon solutions, which may help overcome the deficiencies in the standard GRACE data processing and filtering methods. We will show the power of using regional and global mas con solutions to recover hydrological variations from 2003 to 2011, as well as the oceanic mass variations in the surrounding regions. We will compare the GRACE signals with state of the art hydrology and ocean general circulation models, precipitation, soil moisture and groundwater data sets. We especially emphasize the gravity signatures observed during the decadal drought in the Murray-Darling river basin and the early 2011 floods in North-Western Australia.

Carabajal, Claudia C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Advances and Limitations of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations with GPS Occultation over Southeast Pacific Ocean

The typical atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the southeast (SE) Pacific Ocean is featured with a strong temperature inversion and a sharp moisture gradient across the ABL top. The strong moisture and temperature gradients result in a sharp refractivity gradient that can be precisely detected by the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) measurements. In this paper, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere & Climate (COSMIC) GPS RO soundings, radiosondes and the high-resolution ECMWF analysis over the SE Pacific are analyzed. COSMIC RO is able to detect a wide range of ABL height variations (1-2 kilometer) as observed from the radiosondes. However, the ECMWF analysis systematically underestimates the ABL heights. The sharp refractivity gradient at the ABL top frequently exceeds the critical refraction (e.g., −157 N-unit per kilometer) and becomes the so-called ducting condition, which results in a systematic RO refractivity bias (or called N-bias) inside the ABL. Simulation study based on radiosonde profiles reveals the magnitudes of the N-biases are vertical resolution dependent. The N-bias is also the primary cause of the systematically smaller refractivity gradient (rarely exceeding −110 N-unit per kilometer) at the ABL top from RO measurement. However, the N-bias seems not affect the ABL height detection. Instead, the very large RO bending angle and the sharp refractivity gradient due to ducting allow reliable detection of the ABL height from GPS RO. The seasonal mean climatology of ABL heights derived from a nine-month composite of COSMIC RO soundings over the SE Pacific reveals significant differences from the ECMWF analysis. Both show an increase of ABL height from the shallow stratocumulus near the coast to a much higher trade wind inversion further off the coast. However, COSMIC RO shows an overall deeper ABL and reveals different locations of the minimum and maximum ABL heights as compared to the ECMWF analysis. At low latitudes, despite the decreasing number of COSMIC RO soundings and the lower percentage of soundings that penetrate into the lowest 500-m above the mean-sea-level, there are small sampling errors in the mean ABL height climatology. The difference of ABL height climatology between COSMIC RO and ECMWF analysis over SE Pacific is significant and requires further studies.

COSMIC RO↗

NASA NTRS1993

The role of the geothermal gradient in the emplacement and replenishment of ground ice on Mars

Knowledge of the mechanisms by which ground ice is emplaced, removed, and potentially replenished, are critical to understanding the climatic and hydrologic behavior of water on Mars, as well as the morphologic evolution of its surface. Because of the strong temperature dependence of the saturated vapor pressure of H2O, the atmospheric emplacement or replenishment of ground ice is prohibited below the depth at which crustal temperatures begin to monotonically increase due to geothermal heating. In contrast, the emplacement and replenishment of ground ice from reservoirs of H2O residing deep within the crust can occur by at least three different thermally-driven processes, involving all three phases of water. In this regard, Clifford has discussed how the presence of a geothermal gradient as small as 15 K/km can give rise to a corresponding vapor pressure gradient sufficient to drive the vertical transport of 1 km of water from a reservoir of ground water at depth to the base of the cryosphere every 10(exp 6) - 10(exp 7) years. This abstract expands on this earlier treatment by considering the influence of thermal gradients on the transport of H2O at temperatures below the freezing point.

Clifford, Stephen M.↗