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NASA NTRS2015

Projections of Rapidly Rising Temperatures over Africa Under Low Mitigation

An analysis of observed trends in African annual-average near-surface temperatures over the last five decades reveals drastic increases, particularly over parts of the subtropics and central tropical Africa. Over these regions, temperatures have been rising at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase. An ensemble of high-resolution downscalings, obtained using a single regional climate model forced with the sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of an ensemble of global circulation model (GCM) simulations, is shown to realistically represent the relatively strong temperature increases observed in subtropical southern and northern Africa. The amplitudes of warming are generally underestimated, however. Further warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with plausible increases of 4-6 C over the subtropics and 3-5 C over the tropics by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (a low mitigation) scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. High impact climate events such as heat-wave days and high fire-danger days are consistently projected to increase drastically in their frequency of occurrence. General decreases in soil-moisture availability are projected, even for regions where increases in rainfall are plausible, due to enhanced levels of evaporation. The regional downscalings presented here, and recent GCM projections obtained for Africa, indicate that African annual-averaged temperatures may plausibly rise at about 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the subtropics, and at a somewhat lower rate in the tropics. These projected increases although drastic, may be conservative given the model underestimations of observed temperature trends. The relatively strong rate of warming over Africa, in combination with the associated increases in extreme temperature events, may be key factors to consider when interpreting the suitability of global mitigation targets in terms of African climate change and climate change adaptation in Africa.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2018

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite Sea Surface Salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (National Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF ( Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) V4 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by the satellite at approximately 1 centimeter) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3 meters). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from the GMAO S2S reanalyses that assimilates/withholds along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the overestimated 2014 El Nino, the big 2015 El Nino, and the minor 2016 La Nina. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrades the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction.

Hackert, E.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Impact of Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO Seasonal Forecast System

El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would be of great benefit for society. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean density. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to identify ocean density changes and associated mixing near the ocean surface. We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean analyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S_v2.1) coupled forecast system (Molod et al. 2018 - i.e. NASA's contribution to the NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) project). For all initialization experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF (Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter) scheme similar to Penny et al., 2013. A separate reanalysis additionally assimilates Aquarius V5 (September 2011 to June 2015) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite) V4.1 (March 2015 to present) along-track data.We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing validation statistics of experiments that assimilate SSS versus our current prediction system that withholds SSS. We find that near-surface validation versus observed statistics for salinity are slightly degraded when assimilating SSS. This is an expected result due to known biases between SSS (measured by satellite at approximately 1-centimeter depth) and in situ measurements (typically measured by Argo floats at 3-meters depth). On the other hand, a very encouraging result is that both temperature, absolute dynamic topography, and mixed layer statistics are improved with SSS assimilation. Previous work has shown that correcting near-surface density structure via gridded SSS assimilation can improve coupled forecasts. Here we present results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from GMAO S2S spring reanalyses that assimilate/withhold along-track (L2) SSS. In particular, we contrast forecasts of the big 2015 El Nino, the 2017 La Nina and the 2018 weak El Nino. For each of these ENSO scenarios, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation. Improved SSS and density upgrade the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction. From March to June 2015, the availability of two overlapping satellite SSS instruments, Aquarius and SMAP, allows a unique opportunity to compare and contrast forecasts initialized with the benefit of these two satellite SSS observation types. We assess the impact of gridded satellite sea surface salinity observations on dynamical ENSO forecasts for the big 2015 El Nino.

Hackert, E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Observations Impact on El Niño/Southern Oscillation Predictions: Case Studies from the NASA GEOS Seasonal Forecast System

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has far reaching global climatic impacts and so extending useful ENSO forecasts would have great societal benefit. However, one key variable that has yet to be fully exploited within coupled forecast systems is accurate estimation of near-surface ocean salinity. Satellite sea surface salinity (SSS), combined with temperature, help to improve the estimates of ocean density changes and associated near-surface mixing. For the first time, we assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for improving near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these initializations impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using NASA’s coupled forecast system (GEOS-S2S-2). For all initialization experiments, all available sea level and in situ temperature and salinity observations are assimilated. Separate observing system experiments (OSE) additionally assimilate Aquarius, and SMAP, SMOS, and these datasets combined. We highlight the impact of satellite SSS on ocean reanalyses by comparing experiments with and without the application of SSS assimilation. Next, we compare case studies of coupled forecasts for the big 2015 El Niño, the 2017 La Niña, and the weak El Niño in 2018 that are initialized from GEOS-S2S-2 spring reanalyses that assimilate and withhold along-track SSS. For each of these ENSO-event case studies, assimilation of satellite SSS improves the forecast validation with respect to observed NINO3.4 anomalies (or at least reduces the forecast uncertainty). Satellite SSS assimilation improved characterization of the mixed layer depth leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts. These results further underline the value of satellite SSS assimilation into operational forecast systems.

Eric Hackert↗

DOE OSTI2025

A multi-model assessment of global freshwater temperature and thermoelectric power supply under climate change

Water temperature is a key abiotic factor influencing aquatic ecosystem health and the services provided to both nature and humans. Global water temperature models offer possibilities to improve our understanding of water temperature regimes, which is increasingly important against the backdrop of climate change. Yet, existing studies have predominantly relied on a single model, which can lead to an incomplete representation of uncertainty and potential biases, in addition to limited insight into the range of possible future conditions, which ultimately reduces the robustness of climate impact assessments. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment of surface freshwater temperature changes from various river and lake models for both past conditions and under future scenarios of climate change. Global models consistently simulate that surface water temperatures are currently 0.5 °C–0.8 °C higher than at the turn of the century (i.e. 1981–2000), and that warming will extend and intensify with future global change throughout the 21st century. While the strength of warming is highly sensitive to the different water temperature models, emissions scenarios and global climate models, our multi-model ensemble shows a global average annual water temperature rise of between +1.3 °C and +4.1 °C by the end of the century. To illustrate a potential societal impact of our results, we evaluate how future changes in discharge and water temperature may affect existing thermoelectric power plants, estimating average annual reductions of 1.5%–6% in global usable capacity by the end of the century. However, with river water temperatures projected to exhibit more pronounced seasonal patterns in the future—especially under the more extreme climate change scenarios and during summer months in the Northern Hemisphere—intra-annual reductions in usable capacity can be much more severe. Given the challenges associated with (large-scale) adaptation to control water temperature regimes, strong climate change mitigation is crucial for minimising water temperature rises and its associated negative impacts on humankind and ecosystems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Multi-model Comparison of the Volcanic Sulfate Deposition from the 1815 Eruption of Mt. Tambora

The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 "year without a summer", and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyze both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kgkm-2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kgkm-2, as compared to the mean ice-core derived estimates of roughly 50 kgkm-2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.

Marshall, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS2016

Aerosol Complexity and Implications for Predictability and Short-Term Forecasting

There are clear NWP and climate impacts from including aerosol radiative and cloud interactions. Changes in dynamics and cloud fields affect aerosol lifecycle, plume height, long-range transport, overall forcing of the climate system, etc. Inclusion of aerosols in NWP systems has benefit to surface field biases (e.g., T2m, U10m). Including aerosol affects has impact on analysis increments and can have statistically significant impacts on, e.g., tropical cyclogenesis. Above points are made especially with respect to aerosol radiative interactions, but aerosol-cloud interaction is a bigger signal on the global system. Many of these impacts are realized even in models with relatively simple (bulk) aerosol schemes (approx.10 -20 tracers). Simple schemes though imply simple representation of aerosol absorption and importantly for aerosol-cloud interaction particle-size distribution. Even so, more complex schemes exhibit a lot of diversity between different models, with issues such as size selection both for emitted particles and for modes. Prospects for complex sectional schemes to tune modal (and even bulk) schemes toward better selection of size representation. I think this is a ripe topic for more research -Systematic documentation of benefits of no vs. climatological vs. interactive (direct and then direct+indirect) aerosols. Document aerosol impact on analysis increments, inclusion in NWP data assimilation operator -Further refinement of baseline assumptions in model design (e.g., absorption, particle size distribution). Did not get into model resolution and interplay of other physical processes with aerosols (e.g., moist physics, obviously important), chemistry

Predictability↗

NASA NTRS1999

Assessing the Impact of Aircraft Emissions on the Stratosphere

For the past decade, the NASA Atmospheric Effects of Aviation Project (AEAP) has been the U.S. focal point for research on aircraft effects. In conjunction with U.S. basic research programs, AEAP and concurrent European research programs have driven remarkable progress reports released in 1999 [IPCC, 1999; Kawa et al., 1999]. The former report primarily focuses on aircraft effects in the upper troposphere, with some discussion on stratospheric impacts. The latter report focuses entirely on the stratosphere. The current status of research regarding aviation effects on stratospheric ozone and climate, as embodied by the findings of these reports, is reviewed. The following topics are addressed: Aircraft Emissions, Pollution Transport, Atmospheric Chemistry, Polar Processes, Climate Impacts of Supersonic Aircraft, Subsonic Aircraft Effect on the Stratosphere, Calculations of the Supersonic Impact on Ozone and Sensitivity to Input Conditions.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Convolutional Neural Network for Removing GOES-17 Image Anomalies to Improve CERES Broadband Flux Measurement

Background - CERES provides satellite-based global climate data record of Earth's radiation budget and clouds - CERES = Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System - Measurement anomalies impact cloud retrieval - Incorrect Cloud Phase = Incorrect Flux - Unmitigated bad scanlines will impact climate data records - GOES-17 ABI cooling system anomaly = many bad scanlines at night (~10:30 - 16:30 UTC) - Cleaning imagery of bad scanlines is laborious but necessary - A convolution neural network (CNN) can identify and clean bad scanlines as effectively as a human

Benjamin Scarino↗

NASA NTRS2012

Constraining Middle Atmospheric Moisture in GEOS-5 Using EOS-MLS Observations

Middle atmospheric water vapor plays an important role in climate and atmospheric chemistry. In the middle atmosphere, water vapor, after ozone and carbon dioxide, is an important radiatively active gas that impacts climate forcing and the energy balance. It is also the source of the hydroxyl radical (OH) whose abundances affect ozone and other constituents. The abundance of water vapor in the middle atmosphere is determined by upward transport of dehydrated air through the tropical tropopause layer, by the middle atmospheric circulation, production by the photolysis of methane (CH4), and other physical and chemical processes in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis with GEOS-5 did not assimilate any moisture observations in the middle atmosphere. The plan is to use such observations, available sporadically from research satellites, in future GEOS-5 reanalyses. An overview will be provided of the progress to date with assimilating the EOS-Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) moisture retrievals, alongside ozone and temperature, into GEOS-5. Initial results demonstrate that the MLS observations can significantly improve the middle atmospheric moisture field in GEOS-5, although this result depends on introducing a physically meaningful representation of background error covariances for middle atmospheric moisture into the system. High-resolution features in the new moisture field will be examined, and their relationships with ozone, in a two-year assimilation experiment with GEOS-5. Discussion will focus on how Aura MLS moisture observations benefit the analyses.

Jin, Jianjun↗

NASA NTRS1990

The Space Shuttle's impact on the stratosphere

Launch of spacecraft using solid rocket motors leads to release of gaseous and particular matter in the stratosphere. Concern over these emissions, particularly chlorine, goes back to the Climatic Impact Assessment Program. The buildup of these exhaust products and their perturbation to stratospheric ozone are followed with two- and three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport models. Chlorine enhancements due to the current rate of shuttle launches is small, on average less than 0.6 percent above the current background. Other gases emitted from the solid rockets appear to have even smaller global effects, although the impact of particulate alumina remains uncertain.

Prather, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Application of a coupled aerosol formation: Radiative transfer model to climatic studies of aerosols

A sophisticated one dimensional physical-chemical model of the formation and evolution of stratospheric aerosols was used to predict the size and number concentration of the stratospheric aerosols as functions of time and altitude following: a large volcanic eruption; increased addition of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) or sulfur dioxide (SO2) to the troposphere; increased supersonic aircraft (SST) flights in the stratosphere; and, large numbers of space shuttle (SS) flights through the stratosphere. A radiative-convective one dimensional climate sensitivity study, using the results of the aerosol formation model, was performed to assess the ground level climatic significance of these perturbations to the stratospheric aerosol layer. Volcanic eruptions and large OCS or SO2 increases could cause significant climatic changes. Currently projected SS launches and moderate fleets of SST's are unlikely to upset the stratospheric aerosol layer enough to significantly impact climate.

Toon, O. B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decisionmakers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs (observational datasets) and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Vulnerability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Indian Ocean drives Hadley circulation change in a warming climate

ABSTRACT The weakening and poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation (HC) are considered robust responses of atmospheric meridional circulation to anthropogenic warming. Climate impacts arising from these changes enhance drought conditions and reduce food production in the affected regions. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of HC changes is critical to anticipating the resultant climate risks. First, we demonstrate that robust future HC changes in boreal winter, and the uncertainty in their future projections, are both largely related to sea surface temperature (SST) warming. Next, we investigate the impact of anthropogenic regional ocean warming on the future HC. Accordingly, we conduct a large ensemble of individual ocean basin perturbation experiments at 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warming thresholds (as in the Paris Agreement). These experiments highlight (i) the leading role of tropical Indian Ocean warming in HC changes and (ii) inter-model differences in tropical Pacific warming as a source of uncertainty in HC projections.

Sun, Yong (ORCID:0000000210876060)↗

NASA NTRS2004

Scientific Objectives, measurement needs, and challenges motivating the PARAGON Aerosol Initiative

A systematic, comprehensive aerosol research framework needs to replace the current, fragmented approach. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept (Diner et al. 2004) envisions a coordinated and systematic approach for dramatically improving our understanding of aerosol climate impacts and environmental interactions. Among its scientific motivations is the need to establish, with great confidence, the magnitude of direct anthropogenic aerosol influences on climate and the magnitude and sign of indirect aerosol–cloud effects. Modeling of the industrial era temperature record indicates that net aerosol forcing is slightly less, but opposite in sign, than forcing from anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the uncertainties in aerosol direct and indirect anthropogenic forcing are of the same magnitude as the effects themselves (Penner et al. 2001; Ramaswamy et al. 2001), and are the dominant sources of uncertainty in current estimates of total anthropogenic climate forcing. A major cause of uncertainty is the tremendous tropospheric aerosol variability in space and time. On regional scales, aerosols can have a much greater effect than GHGs, especially at the earth’s surface.

Wielicki, Bruce A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

From IMPEL to Impact: Lessons Learned in Accelerating Innovative Building Technologies

The built environment is a complex ecosystem of social institutions and physical infrastructures. Innovation and entrepreneurship in the building industry are critical levers for market transformation toward equitable climate action. However, climate tech innovation for the built environment is not moving fast enough for global needs, and it lacks fundamental diversity, leading to inequitable outcomes. IMPEL (Incubating Market-propelled Entrepreneurial-mindset at the Labs and Beyond) - a U.S. Department of Energy incubator–addresses these critical issues. Over five years, IMPEL has enabled 250 innovators, including 55% women and diverse founders, to accelerate their buildings and clean energy technologies towards market and climate impact. IMPEL provides access to strategic mentoring and coaching, carbon tools training, testbeds, and powerful public-private pipelines, including industry demonstrations, non-dilutive grants, and venture capital networks. The IMPEL innovation ecosystem has accelerated the pace of innovation and market adoption of building decarbonization technologies. In this paper, leverage the IMPEL stakeholder ecosystem - from innovators to investors and product industry to policymakers - to analyze the critical barriers to decarbonization still encountered in the building industry. We study the IMPEL approach and highlight lessons learned that benefit young businesses pursuing innovative building and building-edge energy technologies to develop new ideas and products. Finally, we propose a ‘market forming’ framework to improve the quality and efficiency of the entrepreneurial ecosystem in the building industry. This framework could scale vetted technologies and the participation of diverse founders to de-risk the climate tech

Singh, Reshma↗

NASA NTRS1982

The formulation of Lamb's Dust Veil Index

A catalog of the major explosive volcanic eruptions since 1500 AD and formulated the Dust Veil Index (DVI) is presented. The DVI quantifies the impact on the Earth's energy balance of changes in atmospheric composition due to explosive volcanic eruptions. The DVI for a particular eruption quantifies the climatic impact of the dust and aerosol injection from the eruption integrated over the years following the event. The formulation of the DVI is described. All references are to Lamb (1970). A distinction is made between the catalog of volcanic activity, and the tabulation of the northern hemisphere DVI apportioned over the years. The DVI data are updated to 1975 for any particular eruption, the catalog gives three DVI values: global, Southern Hemisphere, and Northern Hemisphere. The global DVI given in the catalog is considered. The other two DVIs relate to the impact on the hemispheres considered separately and their estimation involves an additional factor apportioning the dust veil between the hemispheres on the basis of the latitude of injection.

Kelly, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Workshop on Sustainable Infrastructure with NASA Science Mission Directorate and NASA's Office of Infrastructure Representatives

NASA conducted a workshop in July 2009 to bring together their experts in the climate science and climate impacts domains with their institutional stewards. The workshop serves as a pilot for how a federal agency can start to: a) understand current and future climate change risks, b) develop a list of vulnerable institutional capabilities and assets, and c) develop next steps so flexible adaptation strategies can be developed and implemented. 63 attendees (26 scientists and over 30 institutional stewards) participated in the workshop, which extended across all or part of three days.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗