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DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

MCS+: An Efficient Algorithm for Crawling the Community Structure in Multiplex Networks

In this article, we consider the problem of crawling a multiplex network to identify the community structure of a layer-of-interest. A multiplex network is one where there are multiple types of relationships between the nodes. In many multiplex networks, some layers might be easier to explore (in terms of time, money etc.). We propose MCS+, an algorithm that can use the information from the easier to explore layers to help in the exploration of a layer-of-interest that is expensive to explore. We consider the goal of exploration to be generating a sample that is representative of the communities in the complete layer-of-interest. This work has practical applications in areas such as exploration of dark (e.g., criminal) networks, online social networks, biological networks, and so on. For example, in a terrorist network, relationships such as phone records, e-mail records, and so on are easier to collect; in contrast, data on the face-to-face communications are much harder to collect, but also potentially more valuable. We perform extensive experimental evaluations on real-world networks, and we observe that MCS+ consistently outperforms the best baseline—the similarity of the sample that MCS+ generates to the real network is up to three times that of the best baseline in some networks. We also perform theoretical and experimental evaluations on the scalability of MCS+ to network properties, and find that it scales well with the budget, number of layers in the multiplex network, and the average degree in the original network.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

A standards perspective on genomic data reusability and reproducibility

Genomic and metagenomic sequence data provides an unprecedented ability to re-examine findings, offering a transformative potential for advancing research, developing computational tools, enhancing clinical applications, and fostering scientific collaboration. However, effective and ethical reuse of genomics data is hampered by numerous technical and social challenges. The International Microbiome and Multi’Omics Standards Alliance (IMMSA, https://www.microbialstandards.org/) and the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC, https://gensc.org) hosted a 5-part seminar series “A Year of Data Reuse” in 2024 to explore challenges and opportunities of data reuse and reproducibility across disparate domains of the genomic sciences. Addressing these challenges will require a multifaceted approach, including common metadata reporting, clear communication, standardized protocols, improved data management infrastructure, ethical guidelines, and collaborative policies that prioritize transparency and accessibility. We offer strategies to enable responsible and technically feasible data reuse, recognition of data reproducibility challenges, and emphasizing the importance of cross-disciplinary efforts in the pursuit of open science and data-driven innovation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Home energy management (HEM) database: A list with coded attributes of 308 devices commercially available in the US

Policymakers worldwide are currently discussing whether to include home energy management (HEM) products in their portfolio of technologies to reduce carbon emissions and improve grid reliability. However, very little data is available about these products. Here we present the results of an extensive review including 308 HEM products available on the US market in 2015–2016. We gathered these data from publicly available sources such as vendor websites, online marketplaces and other vendor documents. A coding guide was developed iteratively during the data collection and utilized to classify the devices. Each product was coded based on 96 distinct attributes, grouped into 11 categories: Identifying information, Product components, Hardware, Communication, Software, Information - feedback, Information - feedforward, Control, Utility interaction, Additional benefits and Usability. The codes describe product features and functionalities, user interaction and interoperability with other devices. A mix of binary attributes and more descriptive codes allow to sort and group data without losing important qualitative information. The information is stored in a large spreadsheet included with this article, along with an explanatory coding guide. This dataset is analyzed and described in a research article entitled “Categories and functionality of smart home technology for energy management” (Ford et al., 2017) [1].

Home automation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hungary 908 Event - Risk Based Graded Approach to ITM

This presentation, Risk-Based, Graded Approach to Insider Threat Mitigation: Human Measures, introduces a structured framework for managing insider threat risk using internationally recognized guidance from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Nuclear Security Series No. 8-G (Rev. 1) and the Joint Statement on Mitigating Insider Threats (INFCIRC/908). The presentation emphasizes that effective insider threat mitigation (ITM) depends on both positional controls, which manage inherent risk based on access, authority, and knowledge, and human measures, which address residual risk reflected in behavior, motivation, and reliability. Using a risk-informed and graded approach, the presentation outlines methods for identifying and prioritizing high-risk positions, applying layered organizational controls, and integrating human reliability mechanisms such as the Behavior Observation Program (BOP), Fitness-for-Duty (FFD) evaluations, Employee Assistance Programs (EAP), and Nuclear Security Culture (NSC). The human-focused portion examines behavioral and organizational indicators of opportunity, vulnerability, motivation, and crisis, demonstrating how early detection, deterrence, and response can prevent insider events. The session concludes with a case review of the Millstone Nuclear Power Station incident involving engineer George Galatis. The case illustrates how weak leadership and a poor safety culture can create conditions for failure and how a comprehensive ITM framework could have altered the outcome. The objective of this presentation is to help practitioners apply a risk-based, graded philosophy to human factors and promote a culture of accountability, communication, and resilience within nuclear organizations.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

UPC++ v1.0 Specification, Revision 2021.9.0

UPC++ is a C++ library providing classes and functions that support Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) programming. The key communication facilities in UPC++ are one-sided Remote Memory Access (RMA) and Remote Procedure Call (RPC). All communication operations are syntactically explicit and default to non-blocking; asynchrony is managed through the use of futures, promises and continuation callbacks, enabling the programmer to construct a graph of operations to execute asynchronously as high-latency dependencies are satisfied. A global pointer abstraction provides system-wide addressability of shared memory, including host and accelerator memories. The parallelism model is primarily process-based, but the interface is thread-safe and designed to allow efficient and expressive use in multi-threaded applications. The interface is designed for extreme scalability throughout, and deliberately avoids design features that could inhibit scalability.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time-Based CAN IDS Paper Results Code

Modern vehicles are complex cyber-physical systems made of hundreds of electronic control units (ECUs) that communicate over controller area networks (CANs). This inherited complexity has expanded the CAN attack surface which is vulnerable to message injection attacks. These injections change the overall timing characteristics of messages on the bus, and thus, to detect these malicious messages, time-based intrusion detection systems (IDSs) have been proposed. However, time-based IDSs are usually trained and tested on low-fidelity datasets with unrealistic, labeled attacks. This makes difficult the task of evaluating, comparing, and validating IDSs. Here we detail and benchmark four time-based IDSs against the newly published ROAD dataset, the first open CAN IDS dataset with real (non-simulated) stealthy attacks with physically verified effects. We found that methods that perform hypothesis testing by explicitly estimating message timing distributions have lower performance than methods that seek anomalies in a distribution related statistic. In particular, these “distribution-agnostic” based methods outperform “distribution-based” methods by at least 55% in area under the precision-recall curve (AUC-PR). Our results expand the body of knowledge of CAN time-based IDSs by providing details of these methods and reporting their results when tested on datasets with real advanced attacks. Finally, we develop an after-market plug-in detector using lightweight hardware, which can be used to deploy the best performing IDS method on nearly any vehicle.

Moriano, Pablo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oa↗

DOE OSTI2021

Summer 2021 Internship Report

The Library Research and Prototyping team (Proto Team) under the research library explores aspects of scholarly communication, covering aspects of infrastructure, interoperability, and persistence. One of the key contributions of the team is the contribution in standardizing and forming the infrastructure for Mementos in web archiving. The Memento framework in web archiving enables access to digital resources in prior versions serving both persistence and the interoperability of the information. During the internship program, I worked on improving the Memento infrastructure by updating the memento validator. The Memento validator provides the functionality of testing the compliance of the web resources to the Memento specification. The application is intended to be used by the community at large such as web archives, researchers, librarians, and general users, with different levels of technical expertise.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoBridge: Connecting Communities to Geothermal Information and Opportunities: Preprint

The geothermal community is well established with long-standing events, organizations, and tools that are known across the geothermal community. But many of these tools and resources are located behind pay walls, require memberships, or are otherwise difficult to find, especially for people looking to join the geothermal community. These barriers to access can prevent outsiders from discovering valuable geothermal resources, limiting the geothermal community's potential for collaboration with other communities, such as clean energy entrepreneurs looking to expand into geothermal energy. The Department of Energy's (DOE) GeoBridge serves to bring these communities together by acting as a single, publicly accessible, searchable portal that facilitates easy access to available geothermal knowledge and information. It works to expand and diversify the pool of geothermal stakeholders by providing in-roads to geothermal information and community resources. It helps build a stronger geothermal community; one inclusive of individuals and groups from a variety of different backgrounds, including potential investors and start-up companies looking to accelerate innovation in geothermal technologies. By linking communities to geothermal information, analysis and expertise, GeoBridge serves as a launch point, directing interested parties to existing data and tools, events, educational resources, STEM programs, permitting and regulatory information, and other resources that can be used to evaluate, promote, and discover geothermal opportunities.

access↗

DOE OSTI2025

GeoBridge: Connecting Communities to Geothermal Information and Opportunities

access↗

DOE OSTI2020

A map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings worldwide

Formulation of targets and establishing which factors in different contexts will achieve these targets are critical to successful decarbonization of the building sector. To contribute to this, we have performed an evidence map of roadmaps for zero and low energy and carbon buildings (ZLECB) worldwide, including a list and classification of documents in an on-line geographical map, a description of gaps, and a narrative review of the knowledge gluts. We have retrieved 1219 scientific documents from Scopus, extracted metadata from 274 documents, and identified 117 roadmaps, policies or plans from 27 countries worldwide. We find that there is a coverage bias towards more developed regions. The identified scientific studies are mostly recommendations to policy makers, different types of case studies, and demonstration projects. The geographical inequalities found in the coverage of the scientific literature are even more extreme in the coverage of the roadmaps. These underexplored world regions represent an area for further investigation and increased research/policy attention. Our review of the more substantial amount of literature and roadmaps for developed regions shows differences in target metrics and enforcement mechanisms but that all regions dedicate some efforts at national and local levels. Roadmaps generally focus more on new and public buildings than existing buildings, despite the fact that the latter are naturally larger in number and total floor area, and perform less energy efficiently. A combination of efficiency, technical upgrades, and renewable generation is generally proposed in the roadmaps, with behavioral measures only reflected in the use of information and communication technologies, and minimal focus being placed on lifecycle perspectives. We conclude that insufficient progress is being made in the implementation of ZLECB. More work is needed to couple the existing climate goals, with realistic, enforceable policies to make the carbon savings a reality for different contexts and stakeholders worldwide.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inert Gas Element as Active Infrared‐Absorption Source and Donor in Silicon for Forbidden‐Wavelength Sensing

Intrinsic silicon (Si) is forbidden for infrared (IR) sensing at the communication wavelength like 1.31 or 1.55 µm due to the well‐known bandgap limitation. In this work, an unexpected physical picture of using argon (Ar) is identified, which is usually inert to the surrounding chemical environment and used as a protective agent in semiconductor processing, to overcome the IR‐sensing‐forbidden problem in Si. Here, in this work, it is shown by an analysis of a dynamic secondary ion mass spectrometer that such a Si, when exposed to laser pulse in Ar gas, can contain a very high dose of Ar up to 10 20 cm −3 even after 1300 days. First‐principles calculations, molecular dynamics, and Hall effect measurements reveal that, due to both steric and dynamic repulsions by Ar orbitals to Si dangling bonds, the Ar‐filled‐vacancy produces a much wider defect band inside the gap, which is not only responsible for strong infrared absorption, but also causes a significant increase in n‐type conductivity, both in line with experiments. The study proves that originally inert elements in fact can act as active impurities in semiconductors for advanced applications, which updates the current knowledge of defect physics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

A small secreted protein serves as a plant-derived effector mediating symbiosis between Populus and Laccaria bicolor

Beneficial symbiotic fungi colonize plant tissues, delivering crucial ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and plant fertilization. Specifically, trees that form a nutrient-acquiring symbiosis with mutualistic ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi gain advantages from these associations by experiencing enhanced growth rates and increased resilience to both biotic and abiotic stresses. Despite the vital role ECM fungi play in the nutrition and well-being of trees, identifying key regulators participating in the molecular communication between plant and fungal cells is still in its early stages. The mutualistic relationship between Laccaria bicolor and Populus spp. has been utilized as a model system for investigating ECM symbiosis at the molecular level. It has been demonstrated that the fungus L. bicolor secretes Mycorrhiza-induced Small Secreted Proteins (MiSSPs) required for ECM development. Meanwhile, we have previously shown that P. trichocarpa small, secreted proteins (PtSSPs) are highly induced during mutualistic symbiosis and some of them can enter, via in-vitro feeding, L. bicolor hyphae affecting their growth and morphology. However, the exact role and mode of action of PtSSPs in mutualistic symbiosis remain unknown. Because previous study showed that PtSSP1 is taking up by fungal cell and then localize in fungal cells, we decide to dig further on its putative role in fungal cells and also by overexpressing it in poplar because it is not technically possible yet to overexpress poplar protein in Laccaria bicolor hyphae. Here, we further characterized the function of PtSSP1(Potri.009G063200) in ectomycorrhization, which accumulates in the nucleus of L. bicolor in an in-vitro feeding experiment. Our results provide new knowledge for the genetic engineering of plants to control associated microbes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Advanced Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence System for Demonstrating Radiation Regulatory Compliance in DOE Accelerator Facilities

In this Phase II proposal, Applied Research LLC (ARLLC), Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab), and Old Dominion University (ODU) propose the combination of domain knowledge (beam characteristics, fixed structural shielding, earthen burden (the soil and foliage added to the dome of the experimental halls as additional shielding), etc.), machine learning (ML) and/or artificial intelligence (AI) to correlate a variety of multi-modal onsite signals and the radiation fields seen in accessible areas of the accelerator site and the site boundary. The ML/AI will consider the complex influence of environmental parameters affecting the radon contribution of the measurements, focusing on actual data obtained from Jefferson Lab. In Phase I, the coded beam and location data were fed into a deep learning model to predict doses at several designated locations in Jefferson Lab’s facility. Moreover, a dense radiation map was generated using only a sparse collection of the samples in a facility. In Phase II, we will develop a software prototype containing a radiation prediction algorithm, dense radiation map algorithms, and background noise prediction algorithms, with actual data used to evaluate the prototype. This work will provide a framework for evaluation of radiation measurement results around the site based on learned responses. In addition, the proposed approach allows more granular mapping of radiation levels. Better understanding and communication of these levels is related to the overall approach in keeping doses to personnel ALARA.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Statistical inference of empirical constituents in partitioned analysis from integral-effect experiments: An application in thermo-mechanical coupling

Rapid advancements in parallel computing over the last two decades have enabled simulations of complex, coupled systems through partitioning. In partitioned analysis, independently developed constituent models communicate, representing dependencies between multiple physical phenomena that occur in the full system. Figure 1 schematically demonstrates a coupled system with two constituent models, each resolving different physical behavior. In this figure, the constituent model, denoted as the “consumer,” relies upon some input parameter that is being provided by the constituent model acting as a “feeder”. The role of the feeder model is to map operating conditions (i.e. those that are stimulating the process) to consumer inputs, thus providing functional inputs to the consumer model*. Problems arise if the feeder model cannot be built–a challenge that is prevalent for highly complex systems in extreme operational conditions that push the limits of our understanding of underlying physical behavior. Often, these are also the situations where separate-effect experiments isolating the physical phenomena are not available; meaning that experimentally determining the unknown constituent behavior is not possible (Bauer and Holland, 1995; Unal et al., 2013), and that integral-effect experiments that reflect the behavior of the complete system tend to be the only available observations. In this paper, the authors advocate for the usefulness of integral-effect experiments in furthering a model developer’s knowledge of the physics principles governing the system behavior of interest.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Ensemble Federated Machine Learning‐Based Cybersecurity Situational Awareness in Microgrid Network

Cyber-physical microgrids are vulnerable to stealthy cybersecurity threats that disguise their actions through the exploitation of system knowledge. Such actions can severely impacts microgrids deployed in defense bases, slowing the response time of military forces during national emergencies. Several machine-learning algorithms have been proposed to detect intrusions in the grid networks; however, these traditional machine-learning algorithms lack data privacy and are subject to several adversarial machine-learning threats. This paper proposes a novel federated machine learning (FML)-based three-model framework to detect and identify stealthy data-integrity attacks while ensuring data privacy in microgrid networks. The proposed architecture uses a variational mode decomposition technique to extract derived features from incoming measurement and control datasets. The extraction of these derived features allows FML models to learn minute variations in data patterns that allow them to perform significantly better than the models trained with generic datasets consisting of raw features. Our experimental results show the efficient performance of the proposed methodology against different types of data integrity attacks while considering primary and secondary controllers in microgrids. Further, the applied FML-integrated random forest ensemble algorithm outperforms the existing generic FML algorithms during noisy and noise-free datasets with prediction latencies of only 91–134 µs per sample within the 0.1 s sampling interval and requires communication bandwidth of around ∼8.25 KB/s at the control center and ∼2.7 KB/s per edge client for communication.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

Graphics to facilitate informative discussion and team decision making

Everyone knows the expression “A picture is worth a thousand words,” and this effectively summarizes the ability of graphical summaries to convey information and persuade. However, in many cases, the goal for the right visualization is to encourage and guide discussion while helping focus a team to make carefully considered, defensible, and data-driven decisions. The aims of graphics differ if we are trying to communicate the merits of a single choice versus outlining several contending alternatives for further comparison and discussion. These choices each have their own strengths and weaknesses depending on how we value different criteria. They also serve different purposes at various stages of decision making. Often the role of statisticians is not to provide a single answer but to provide rich information and summaries in a manageable and compact form to enable productive discussion among team members. Through a series of diverse examples, this work present principles and strategies for encouraging discussion and informed decision making and discuss how they can be integrated with versatile use of graphical tools for examining multiple objectives, framing trade-offs between alternatives, and examining the impact of subjective priorities and uncertainty on the final decision.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗