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At least 289 records · Page 16

Mechanism Across Scales: A Holistic Modeling Framework Integrating Laboratory and Field Studies for Microbial Ecology

Over the last century, leaps in technology for imaging, sampling, detection, high-throughput sequencing, and -omics analyses have revolutionized microbial ecology to enable rapid acquisition of extensive datasets for microbial communities across the ever-increasing temporal and spatial scales. The present challenge is capitalizing on our enhanced abilities of observation and integrating diverse data types from different scales, resolutions, and disciplines to reach a causal and mechanistic understanding of how microbial communities transform and respond to perturbations in the environment. This type of causal and mechanistic understanding will make predictions of microbial community behavior more robust and actionable in addressing microbially mediated global problems. To discern drivers of microbial community assembly and function, we recognize the need for a conceptual, quantitative framework that connects measurements of genomic potential, the environment, and ecological and physical forces to rates of microbial growth at specific locations. We describe the Framework for Integrated, Conceptual, and Systematic Microbial Ecology (FICSME), an experimental design framework for conducting process-focused microbial ecology studies that incorporates biological, chemical, and physical drivers of a microbial system into a conceptual model. Through iterative cycles that advance our understanding of the coupling across scales and processes, we can reliably predict how perturbations to microbial systems impact ecosystem-scale processes or vice versa. We describe an approach and potential applications for using the FICSME to elucidate the mechanisms of globally important ecological and physical processes, toward attaining the goal of predicting the structure and function of microbial communities in chemically complex natural environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Whose Gas is it anyway? Differentiating the Source of a Large Soil Vapor Plume beneath Two Adjacent Waste Sites - 20487

DOE contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company is currently responsible for conducting groundwater contamination monitoring at several RCRA treatment, storage, and disposal units located on the Hanford Site in Richland, Washington State. The Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill treatment, storage, and disposal unit presents a distinct groundwater monitoring problem because of a large multi-contaminant soil vapor plume beneath it that is a likely source of low-level volatile organic compound groundwater contamination. Adjacent to Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill is the Solid Waste Landfill. Volatile organic compounds are inventory components of both the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and the Solid Waste Landfill. Therefore, it is possible that both sites could be contributing to the soil vapor plume. For regulatory purposes, it is important to differentiate which site is the primary contributor of volatile organic compounds to the plume. An approach was developed to identify the primary volatile organic compound source of the soil vapor plume beneath Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. The site conceptual model hypothesis of vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to the dissolved phase in groundwater was tested by a simple mathematical model of vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations at the groundwater/air interface. Once it was shown that vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater was a valid conceptual model for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill, spatial and statistical methods were used to determine the primary site contributing to the majority of volatile organic compounds to the soil vapor plume. Average groundwater chloroform, tetrachloroethene, and trichloroethene concentrations from Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring network wells were plotted on maps of the facilities and immediate vicinities and compared to soil vapor sampling probe locations. Principal component analysis and mixing ratios were used to identify source contributions of each treatment, storage, and disposal unit to the plume. Results of the vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations mathematical model showed that transport phenomena outweigh steady-state equilibria. Estimated vapor/liquid equilibrium concentrations were considerably lower than soil vapor measurements. The results indicate that dynamic vadose zone and groundwater factors such as decreased vapor concentrations with depth, vapor dilution from dispersion in the vadose zone, and advective and diffusional volatile organic compound dilution in groundwater result in groundwater volatile organic compound concentrations much less than would be measured under steady-state equilibrium conditions. Site source contribution differentiation by principal component analysis and mixing ratios was inconclusive using actual soil gas data because of the similarity in concentration values in both datasets for Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill. Similar data populations suggest mixing of the vapor contributions from both sites by dispersion through the soil matrix pore spaces. However, when groundwater volatile organic compound data were compared between the Nonradioactive Dangerous Waste Landfill and Solid Waste Landfill monitoring networks, Solid Waste Landfill mean concentrations were higher, suggesting more vapor-phase volatile organic compound transport to groundwater at those locations. Simulated volatile organic compound soil vapor and groundwater datasets created to test the methods developed for this study show that the method can be successful in source differentiation when significantly different datasets are compared. This paper will describe a method of testing a conceptual model for vapor-phase contaminant transport to groundwater and for differentiating site sources of contaminants comprising a mixed-constituent soil vapor plume. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Merefa Community Microgrid: Supporting Distributed Energy Resource Deployment in Ukraine

A conceptual design is described for a community microgrid in Ukraine. Microgrid resources include solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage, and conventional natural gas fueled reciprocating engine generators. The conceptual architecture was informed by the microgrid developer, NREL subject matter experts, and the application of REopt, an NREL-developed software tool created for identification of least-cost combination of resources for achieving cost savings, resilience, and renewable energy goals. This fact sheet is a summary of a previously published technical report; see NREL/TP-7A40-89527, which includes conceptual architecture, estimates of key summary financial metrics, and sequence of operations.

battery storage↗

A Comprehensive Calibration Framework for the Northwest River Forecast Center

We present a comprehensive framework developed by the Northwest River Forecast Center for calibrating hydrologically diverse basins. The framework includes models for snow, soil moisture, routing, channel loss, and consumptive use. Data inputs include a wide range of open-access datasets for meteorology, land use, topography, and land cover. The framework uses conceptual hydrologic models to handle basins with various hydrologic regimes including rain-driven and snowmelt-dominated basins. We also develop a flexible automatic calibration system that can handle numerous unobservable model parameters in a computationally efficient manner. A single-basin automatic calibration run can typically be completed on a modern laptop in under 10 min. We found that model performance metrics for this new approach match the quality of the NWRFC's previous labor-intensive manual calibrations. The model performance also rivals that of a state-of-the-art deep learning model at a fraction of the computational cost. This framework presents a new standard for the quality of calibrations possible with lumped conceptual hydrologic models, combining careful data curation, an objective calibration framework, and expert local knowledge. In addition, we have made software packages available for the entire suite of National Weather Service River Forecast System models, including SAC-SMA, SNOW-17, and Lag-K. These modern interfaces are intended to increase accessibility and facilitate future research.

Forecasting↗

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thermal insulation versus capacitance: A simulation experiment comparing effects of shade and hyporheic exchange on daily and seasonal stream temperature cycles

In streams where water temperatures stress native biota, management of riparian shade or hyporheic exchange are both considered viable management strategies for reducing the peaks of daily and seasonal stream channel temperature cycles. Although shade and hyporheic exchange may have similar effects on stream temperatures, their mechanisms differ. Improved understanding of the heat-exchange mechanisms influenced by shade and hyporheic exchange will aid in the appropriate application of either stream temperature management strategy. To illustrate a conceptual model highlighting shade as ‘thermal insulation’ and hyporheic exchange imparting ‘thermal capacitance’ to a stream reach, we conducted an in-silico simulation modelling experiment increasing shade or hyporheic exchange parameters on an idealized, hypothetical stream. We assessed the potential effects of increasing shade or hyporheic exchange on a stream reach using an established process-based heat-energy budget model of stream-atmosphere heat exchange and incorporated an advection-driven hyporheic heat exchange routine. The model tracked heat transport through the hyporheic zone and exchange with the stream channel, while including the effects of hyporheic water age distribution on upwelling hyporheic temperatures. Results showed that shade and hyporheic exchange similarly damped diurnal temperature cycles and differentially altered seasonal cycles of our theoretical stream. In winter, hyporheic exchange warmed simulated channel temperatures whereas shade had little effect. In summer, both shade and hyporheic exchange cooled channel temperatures, though the effects of shade were more pronounced. Our simple-to-grasp analogies of ‘thermal insulation’ for shade effects and ‘thermal capacitance’ for hyporheic exchange effects on stream temperature encourage more accurate conceptualization of complex, dynamic heat exchange processes among the atmosphere, stream channel, and alluvial aquifer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Entanglement between valence and sea quarks in hadrons of 1+1 dimensional QCD

The conceptual interpretation of valence- and sea-quark separation, which is a key aspect of the parton model and of an intuitive picture of hadron structure, becomes obscured by quantum effects in QCD. This suggests that there may be measures of entanglement between quark degrees of freedom that are present in QCD, but absent in the intuitive picture with a clear valence-sea (VS) separation. In this paper, we define the first rigorous measure of VS entanglement in QCD in an attempt to bring conceptual clarity to this issue, and, potentially, to find a measure of the applicability of the parton model to QCD bound states. This VS entanglement vanishes in the large-N c limit, and it remains low when finite-N c states resemble their large-N c counterparts. We perform a numerical study of VS entanglement in 1 + 1 dimensional discrete light-cone quantized QCD, and in the process develop a method for building the color-singlet basis of 1 + 1d QCD that is manifestly complete and orthogonal by construction. We calculate this VS entanglement entropy for the first time and find that it is relatively low for the first few excited states of both mesons and baryons compared to all other states in the spectrum, with the VS entropy of ground state hadrons providing a minimum. We also see that for ground state mesons the entropy is well described in the 1/N c approximation. These results suggest that low energy hadrons may be the only QCD bound states for which the large-N c expansion, and perhaps the parton model, provide an accurate description. This work also provides the first evidence that the VS entanglement entropy of QCD in 3 + 1d, which would likely serve as an order parameter for the transition between quark and hadron degrees of freedom, may be perturbatively accessible through a large-N c expansion.

1+1 dimensional QCD↗

What can the GRACE seasonal cycle tell us about lake-aquifer interactions?

Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Benchmark study of a new simplified DFN model for shearing of intersecting fractures and faults

It is challenging to quantitatively predict shearing of intersecting fractures/faults because of dynamic frictional contacts accompanied by possible nonlinear rock deformation. To address such challenges, a new conceptual model—the simplified DFN model—was proposed and validated by Hu et al. 46 to use major paths (MPs) to represent complicated DFNs for calculation of shearing. In this work, we conducted a benchmark study for three examples that involve different levels of complexity of intersecting fractures, and correspondingly different numbers of MPs. The codes and software that were used in the benchmark cover a range of continuum, discontinuum and hybrid numerical methods: NMM (LBNL), FLAC3D (LBNL), GBDEM (KIGAM), FRACOD (DynaFrax), and CASRock (CAS). The general consistency between DFN and MP cases as predicted by all the codes/software demonstrates that major paths can be used to simplify the geometry of DFNs in a wide range of software. Disagreement in results made by some software and potential future improvements are discussed. We show that (1) shearing of one or multiple major fractures can be reduced if there are multiple smaller intersecting fractures in that area, which is a useful basis for understanding and controlling induced seismicity and merits further analysis, and (2) the agreement achieved in the benchmark examples provide confidence that the simplified DFN model is a promising conceptual model that can be used for different types of numerical approaches and software for simplifying the analysis of the shearing of intersecting fractures and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Chronostratigraphy of talus flatirons and piedmont alluvium along the Book Cliffs, Utah – Testing models of dryland escarpment evolution

Research on the evolution of dryland escarpments and what drives and controls their erosional retreat have been limited by a lack of chronologically constrained records. Prior investigations of escarpments in the southwestern U.S. and globally garner two endmember conceptual models -- one focused on bottom-up baselevel drivers and autogenic variations in piedmont and toeslope erosion processes, the other focused on the role of climate as a top-down forcing mechanism on sediment production and transport from cliffs. In this work, we test these conceptual models along a section of the Book Cliffs in central Utah, where climate has varied strongly and baselevel has fallen significantly over the late Quaternary. Four generations of talus flatirons and piedmont terraces are preserved in the study area we date them by optically stimulated luminescence and 10Be-exposure techniques. OSL depositional ages cluster into four generations of deposits with mean ages and mean standard errors of 117.8 ± 6.7 ka, 83.4 ± 3.3 ka, 52.4 ± 1.8 ka, and 5.6 ± 0.3 ka. 10Be-exposure results from talus boulders protruding from flatirons confirm that the youngest generation of talus is Holocene, with recent rock-fall boulders still being received on the landform top. Older flatiron generations produce incoherent, minimum exposure ages reflecting an increasing dominance of in situ boulder weathering and a steady-state denudation rate of ~45 mm/ky after tens of thousands of years. Based on the chronostratgraphy and correlation of talus and piedmont deposits, we interpret climate as the primary control on escarpment evolution. Depositional ages do not correspond to glacial epochs as historically presumed, but instead to episodes of intermediate and unstable or variable Pleistocene climate during Marine Isotope Stage-3 and 5 a/b. Results support the significance of high climate variability at millennial timescales in driving both sediment production by mass wasting from the cliff as well as sediment storage and reworking along the piedmont. In contrast, wetter climates of glacial epochs apparently caused greater erosion and sediment transport to trunk drainages. Our chronology also reveals a systematic decrease in deposit age with increasing distance up the piedmont from the regional baselevel of the Price River, consistent with transient fluvial incision and terrace abandonment. The Book Cliffs record notably does not correlate with similarly constrained records in Spain or the contrasting record from the Negev, yet they all share the feature of enhanced talus deposition and cliff retreat corresponding to climate instability rather than in response to steady glacial-climate conditions. Thus, we outline a model of escarpment evolution and retreat governed largely by top-down climate-forcing of sediment production and transport during climate variability, with local changes in baselevel and erosional processes on the piedmont being a modifying, secondary factor.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impacts of photovoltaic solar energy on soil carbon: A global systematic review and framework

Globally, solar energy is anticipated to be the primary source of electricity as early as 2050, and the greatest additions in capacity are currently in the form of large, ground-mounted photovoltaic solar energy facilities (GPVs). Growing interest lies in understanding and anticipating opportunities to increase soil carbon sequestration across the footprint and perimeter of both conventional and multi-use GPVs (e.g., ecovoltaics, agrivoltaics, and rangevolatics), especially as operators increasingly deputize as land managers. To date, studies on the relationship between soils and PV solar energy are limited to unique, localized sites. This study employed a systematic review to (i) identify a global corpus of 18 studies on interactions between GPVs and soils, (ii) collect and characterize 113 soil and soil-related experimental variables interacting with GPVs from this corpus, and (iii) synthesize trends among these experimental variables. Next, this study combined data from the systematic review with an iterative, knowledge co-production approach to produce a conceptual model for the study of soil and GPV interactions that applies to multiple installation types, scales, and contexts where GPVs are deployed, and identified research opportunities, threats, and priorities. This study's baseline understanding, conceptual model, and co-produced knowledge confer unique insight into the feasibility of combining soil carbon sequestration with the climate change mitigation potential of PV solar energy.

agrivoltaics↗

Solving gyrokinetic systems with higher-order time dependence

We discuss theoretical and numerical aspects of gyrokinetics as a Lagrangian field theory when the field perturbation is introduced into the symplectic part. A consequence is that the field equations and particle equations of motion in general depend on the time derivatives of the field. The most well-known example is when the parallel vector potential is introduced as a perturbation, where a time derivative of the field arises only in the equations of motion, so an explicit equation for the fields may still be written. We will consider the conceptually more problematic case where the time-dependent fields appear in both the field equations and equations of motion, but where the additional term in the field equations is formally small. The conceptual issues were described by Burby (J. Plasma Phys., vol. 82 (3), 2016, 905820304): these terms lead to apparent additional degrees of freedom to the problem, so that the electric field now requires an initial condition, which is not required in low-frequency (Darwin) Vlasov–Maxwell equations. Also, the small terms in the Euler–Lagrange equations are a singular perturbation, and these two issues are interlinked. For well-behaved problems the apparent additional degrees of freedom are spurious, and the physically relevant solution may be directly identified. Because we needed to assume that the system is well behaved for small perturbations when deriving gyrokinetic theory, we must continue to assume that when solving it, and the physical solutions are thus the regular ones. The spurious nature of the singular degrees of freedom may also be seen by changing coordinate systems so the varying field appears only in the Hamiltonian. We then describe how methods appropriate for singular perturbation theory may be used to solve these asymptotic equations numerically. We then describe a proof-of-principle implementation of these methods for an electrostatic strong-flow gyrokinetic system; two basic test cases are presented to illustrate code functionality.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geoscientific Hypotheses with Geophysical Data: Application to Electrical Resistivity Imaging of a Fractured Bedrock Zone

As climate changes and populations grow, groundwater sustainability is becoming increasingly important. Groundwater models, based on a conceptual understanding of the subsurface structure, are crucial tools for making sustainable management decisions. Conceptual models of the subsurface are based on knowledge of geological processes, and, frequently, observations from geophysical data. A frequent problem in groundwater model development occurs when multiple geological phenomena could explain a single subsurface observation. Uncertainty in geophysical data makes it even more difficult to discern which explanations are consistent with the geophysics. Here, we present a framework for testing geological when a geological feature is observed in geophysical data, but its physical characteristics are uncertain. The framework builds on Popper-Bayes methods developed in previous work, and is applied to study a fractured bedrock zone in a mountainous watershed in southwest Colorado. First, we outline six hypotheses based on the geological history of the watershed. Then, using the proposed Popper-Bayes approach, we demonstrate that three of the six hypotheses are inconsistent with measured electrical resistivity data, even after accounting for uncertainty. Finally, we discuss the importance of the prior model, and how this framework for handling geophysical uncertainty can be applied in other settings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development of an ERT‐Based Framework for Bentonite Buffers Monitoring From Laboratory Tests: 2. Quantitative Moisture Dynamics Estimation Model

Abstract The long‐term containment of high‐level radioactive waste in geological disposal repositories relies on Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS), with bentonite clay emerging as a candidate material due to its unique properties. Understanding moisture dynamics within bentonite buffers is crucial for EBS performance, as it directly influences the material's swelling capacity, thermal and hydraulic conductivity, mechanical properties, and long‐term evolution under complex thermal‐hydrological‐mechanical (THM) processes. This study develops an advanced Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT)‐based framework to quantitatively monitor moisture dynamics under THM conditions. Our framework extends the Waxman‐Smits model to incorporate the coupled effects of temperature, water content, fluid chemistry, and mechanical changes on bentonite's electrical properties. Utilizing HotBENT‐Lab data from our companion paper, which includes electrical conductivity, CT density, and thermocouple measurements, this study offers a novel methodological framework bridging different scales of the model. Our results show that the extended model can estimate water content from ERT data, capturing spatial and temporal variations in moisture distribution within bentonite columns. However, the model tends to overestimate water content compared to CT density‐derived measurements. We address this discrepancy by incorporating a simplified swelling effect model, which improves agreement between ERT and CT density‐based water content estimates. We also discuss model limitations, including simplified treatment of swelling and micropore effects, and propose a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, addressing challenges such as parameter scalability, field validation methods, and integration of diverse data sources. This ERT‐based framework can potentially advance real‐world moisture monitoring of bentonite‐based EBS in nuclear waste repositories. Plain Language Summary Safely containing high‐level radioactive waste depends on barriers made from materials like bentonite clay, which is effective because it swells and seals in the waste. To ensure these barriers work well over time, it's important to understand how moisture moves through the clay. Our study developed a new method using ERT to monitor moisture levels in bentonite under conditions that mimic those in actual storage sites, including changes in temperature, water content, and mechanical stress. This study improved an existing model to better account for how these factors affect the clay, allowing us to create more accurate moisture maps. Initially, the proposed model overestimated the amount of water in the clay, but its accuracy was improved by factoring in how the clay swells when wet. This study also identified some limitations of the model and suggested ways to adapt it for use in real‐world waste storage sites. This new approach could lead to better monitoring and safety checks for nuclear waste storage systems, helping to ensure long‐term containment. Key Points This work develops an ERT‐based framework extending the Waxman‐Smits model to monitor bentonite moisture dynamics during coupled THM processes The extended model accurately estimates water content from Electrical Resistivity Tomography data, incorporating swelling effects to improve precision This work proposes a conceptual framework for transitioning from laboratory to field applications, advancing EBS monitoring in nuclear waste repositories

Chen, Hang↗

Persistence of soil organic carbon caused by functional complexity

Soil organic carbon management has the potential to aid climate change mitigation through drawdown of atmospheric carbon dioxide. To be effective, such management must account for processes influencing carbon storage and re-emission at different space and time scales. Achieving this requires a conceptual advance in our understanding to link carbon dynamics from the scales at which processes occur to the scales at which decisions are made. Here, we propose that soil carbon persistence can be understood through the lens of decomposers as a result of functional complexity derived from the interplay between spatial and temporal variation of molecular diversity and composition. For example, co-location alone can determine whether a molecule is decomposed, with rapid changes in moisture leading to transport of organic matter and constraining the fitness of the microbial community, while greater molecular diversity may increase the metabolic demand of, and thus potentially limit, decomposition. This conceptual shift accounts for emergent behaviour of the microbial community and would enable soil carbon changes to be predicted without invoking recalcitrant carbon forms that have not been observed experimentally. Finally, functional complexity as a driver of soil carbon persistence suggests soil management should be based on constant care rather than one-time action to lock away carbon in soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗