Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Cost prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

Boron-aluminum structural component for Shuttle.

A boron-aluminum structural component, representative of Space Shuttle fuselage structure, has been fabricated and tested as part of a program to demonstrate boron-aluminum feasibility for Shuttle applications. The 4- by 5-foot component consists of eleven 24-ply Z section stringers and a +45 degree 8-ply skin. It was tested at room temperature and at 500 F under combined compressive and shear loadings. The components for this program were fabricated in order to encounter and solve scale-up problems, and to obtain test data representative of production hardware. The data from this program are expected to allow more accurate prediction of weights and costs of boron-aluminum structures for the Space Shuttle.

Brown, E. P.↗

Conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions and recommendations are presented for an analysis of the total energy situation; the effect of the energy problem on air transportation; and hydrogen fuel for aircraft. Properties and production costs of fuels, future prediction for energy and transportation, and economic aspects of hydrogen production are appended.

Source record↗

Operation of a single-channel, sequential Navstar GPS receiver in a helicopter mission environment

It is pointed out that the future utilization of the Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) by civil helicopters will provide an enhanced performance not obtainable with current navigations systems. GPS will supply properly equipped users with extremely accurate three-dimensional position and velocity information anywhere in the world. Preliminary studies have been conducted to investigate differential GPS concept mechanizations and cost, and to theoretically predict navigation performance and the impact of degradation of the GPS C/A code for national security considerations. The obtained results are encouraging, but certain improvements are needed. As a second step in the program, a single-channel sequential GPS navigator was installed and operated in the NASA SH-3G helicopter. A series of flight tests were conducted. It is found that performance of the Navstar GPS Z-set is quite acceptable to support area navigation and nonprecision approach operations.

Edwards, F. G.↗

A System Concept for Facilitating User Preferences in En Route Airspace

The Federal Aviation Administration is trying to make its air traffic management system more responsive to the needs of the aviation community by exploring the concept of 'free flight' for aircraft flying under instrument flight rules. A logical first step toward free flight could be made without significantly altering current air traffic control (ATC) procedures or requiring new airborne equipment by designing a ground-based system to be highly responsive to 'user preference' in en route airspace while providing for an orderly transition to the terminal area. To facilitate user preference in all en route environments, a system based on an extension of the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) is proposed in this document. The new system would consist of two integrated components. An airspace tool (AT) focuses on unconstrained en route aircraft (e.g., not transitioning to the terminal airspace), taking advantage of the relatively unconstrained nature of their flights and using long-range trajectory prediction to provide cost-effective conflict resolution advisories to sector controllers. A sector tool (ST) generates efficient advisories for all aircraft, with a focus on supporting controllers in analyzing and resolving complex, highly constrained traffic situations. When combined, the integrated AT/ST system supports user preference in any air route traffic control center sector. The system should also be useful in evaluating advanced free-flight concepts by serving as a test bed for future research. This document provides an overview of the design concept, explains its anticipated benefits, and recommends a development strategy that leads to a deployable system.

Vivona, R. A.↗

Fiber Pulling Apparatus

The fiber optics industry has grown into a multi-billion marketplace that will continue to grow into the 21st century. Optical fiber communications is currently dominated by silica glass technology. Successful efforts to improve upon the low loss transmission characteristics of silica fibers have propelled the technology into the forefront of the communications industry. However, reaching the theoretical transmission capability of silica fiber through improved processing has still left a few application areas in which other fiber systems can provide an influential role due to specific characteristics of high theoretical transmission in the 2 - 3 micron wavelength region. One of the other major materials used for optical fibers is the systems based upon Heavy Metal Fluoride Glass (HMFG). Commercial interest is driven primarily by the potential for low loss repeaterless infrared fibers. An example of the major communications marketplace which would benefit from the long distance repeaterless capability of infrared fibers is the submarine cables which link the continents. When considering commercial interests, optical fiber systems provide a healthy industrial position which continues to expand. Major investments in the systems used for optical fiber communications have continued to increase each year and are predicted to continue well into the next century. Estimates of 8.5% compounded annually are predicted through 1999 for the North American market and 1 1 % worldwide. The growth for the optical fiber cable itself is expected to continue between 44 and 50 per cent of the optical fiber communications budget through 1999. The total budget in 1999 world-wide is expected to be in the neighborhood of $9 billion. Another survey predicts that long haul telecommunications represents 15% of a world-wide fiber optics market in 1998. The actual amount allotted to cable was not specified. However, another market research had predicted that the cable costs alone represents more than 50% of the total budget each year through 1998. A newly emerging activity is the commercial development of doped optical fibers which can be pumped by laser diodes to provide amplification of the communication signals. This technology is newly emerging and will be developed for commercial interests in the United States by Galileo Electro-optical Incorporated in Sturbridge, MA on a license from British Telecom. Long repeaterless communication links provide the biggest stimulus for this technology. As an example of the of the revenues involved in the optical fiber communications 3 industry, the current trade journal lists that for the fiscal years, 1991 - 1994, 185 separate undersea links were established. In addition, another 105 links are planned through 1998. The distribution of revenues involved in the undersea installations is roughly $8.5 billion through 1993 and another $13 billion planned through 1998. A large portion of the future activity (34%) is planned for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Region. Other examples of the commercial utility of optical fiber networks is given in a recent scientific symposium in which the outlook for HMFG infrared fiber was determined to be very bright.Another area of interest lies in the use of fiber optics for laser surgery delivery systems.

Workman, Gary L.↗

CFD - Mature Technology?

Over the past 30 years, numerical methods and simulation tools for fluid dynamic problems have advanced as a new discipline, namely, computational fluid dynamics (CFD). Although a wide spectrum of flow regimes are encountered in many areas of science and engineering, simulation of compressible flow has been the major driver for developing computational algorithms and tools. This is probably due to a large demand for predicting the aerodynamic performance characteristics of flight vehicles, such as commercial, military, and space vehicles. As flow analysis is required to be more accurate and computationally efficient for both commercial and mission-oriented applications (such as those encountered in meteorology, aerospace vehicle development, general fluid engineering and biofluid analysis) CFD tools for engineering become increasingly important for predicting safety, performance and cost. This paper presents the author's perspective on the maturity of CFD, especially from an aerospace engineering point of view.

Kwak, Dochan↗

Lightning Protection and Instrumentation at Kennedy Space Center

Lightning is a natural phenomenon, but can be dangerous. Prevention of lightning is a physical impossibility and total protection requires compromises on costs and effects, therefore prediction and measurements of the effects that might be produced by iightn:ing is a most at locat:ions where people or sensitive systems and equipment are exposed. This is the case of the launching pads for the Space Shuttle at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. This report summarizes lightring phenomena with a brief explanation of lightning generation and lightning activity as related to KSC. An analysis of the instrumentation used at the launching pads for measurements of lightning effects with alternatives to improve the protection system and up-grade the actual instrumentation system is indicated.

Colon, Jose L.↗

Analysis of Phoenix Anomalies and IV and V Findings Applied to the GRAIL Mission

Analysis of patterns in IV&V findings and their correlation with post-launch anomalies allowed GRAIL to make more efficient use of IV&V services . Fewer issues. . Higher fix rate. . Better communication. . Increased volume of potential issues vetted, at lower cost. . Hard to make predictions of post-launch performance based on IV&V findings . Phoenix made sound fix/use as-is decisions . Things that were fixed eliminated some problems, but hard to quantify. . Broad predictive success in one area, but inverse relationship in others.

Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL)↗

Virtual Fit Assessment: Validation using Historical Spacesuit Fit Data

Virtual fit tests using 3D body scans have provided a cost-effective means to predictively assess spacesuit fit for the current and future astronaut population. However, fit is a complex issue influenced by physical interferences, subjective preference, and many other factors. Fit can substantially differ between the type of hardware, environmental conditions, and tasks being performed. Namely, fit changes across different contexts, such as 3D printed mockup evaluations, pressurized one-g suited test events, neutral buoyancy and other training events, and flight extravehicular activities (EVA). These challenges make it difficult to validate virtual fit frameworks to physical suit sizing. This study proposes a new method of validation using the wealth of historically archived suit fit data. Physically Assessed Fit (PAF) data was assessed from astronauts and test volunteers who wore the legacy Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). The data was collected during the past decades at NASA and considered to be most reliable and dependable. Each participant was 3D scanned for body shape and spacesuit-critical dimensions were measured per NASA guidelines. The participants’ size preference for hard upper torso (HUT) assembly was retrieved from their pressurized suit fit check records. Fit assessments were also updated after one-g EVA training, neutral buoyancy training, and EVA flights. Virtually Assessed Fit (VAF) was done by overlaying the CAD model of a HUT with the 3D body scans of the PAF participants. Each body scan was iteratively adjusted for the position inside the HUT to minimize the suit-to-body contact interference while satisfying a set of prescribed requirements. Then the residual contact area, depth, and volume were quantified as VAF metrics. This process was repeated for the different HUT sizes, including medium, large, and extra-large. Statistical modeling is currently in progress and will be presented at the conference. A statistical classifier will be developed to predict a fit probability for different HUT sizes as a function of the corresponding person’s VAF metrics. The HUT size with the highest fit probability will constitute the most likely size selection for the person, and the prediction will be compared against the corresponding PAF data. The participant data will be randomly pre-grouped into either a model development or validation subset. While the model development subset will be used to build the probability model, the validation subset will be used to assess the model accuracy. Also, the locations and magnitudes of suit-body-contacts will be estimated from VAF. This information can identify the critical suit geometry and body shape features that influence suit fit. The variations found in PAF size selections by subjects with similar VAF metrics will allow for investigations into subjective preferences, for example, tight versus loose fit. Overall, this study is expected to provide a structured validation of a virtual suit fit framework, which has not been possible in the past. The outcome can also provide useful insights and potential limitations for interpreting virtual fit tests for future spacesuit designs and population accommodation.

Han Kim↗

A Universal Refrigerant Charge Fault Detection and Diagnostics Method Based on Pump Down Operation

The performance of the heat pump system varies greatly depending on the refrigerant charge amount. Improving the refrigerant charge fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) method of vapor compression systems have the potential for increasing energy efficiency and reducing service cost. Previous studies to predict refrigerant charge amount are mostly empirical methods which require significant amount of experimental data for high accuracy. The primary goal of this research is to develop a universal charge fault detection method which requires only a few experimental data with high prediction accuracy.Currently, pump down operations are typical practices by HVAC technicians when they need to open the refrigerant circuit to make a repairment. In addition, compressors have a built-in low-pressure cut-off protection function, and the compressor performance maps are commonly available from manufacturers. The proposed method innovatively utilizes the typical pump down operation, the compressor low-pressure cut-off protection, and the compressor performance map. It does not require any geometry information of heat exchangers, refrigerant lines, or charge buffers.The new charge prediction method is firstly formulated through theoretical analysis, then verified and calibrated by a quasi-steady-state simulation of the pump down process for a residential heat pump system. The quasi steady-state simulation uses an HVAC system simulation framework driven by DOE/ORNL Heat Pump Design Model (HPDM). Preliminary experiment validations with heat pump refrigerant leakage tests demonstrate the deviation of the proposed charge prediction method compared with measurement is within 8%. This technology makes refrigerant charge amount available at the technician’s fingertips and leads to shorter maintenance time and fewer site visits.

Li, Zhenning↗

Predicting chatter using machine learning and acoustic signals from low-cost microphones

Machining chatter is a phenomenon resulting from self-oscillation between a machining tool and workpiece. This self-oscillation results in variation on the machined product that reduces the ability to meet desired specifications. Chatter is a widely studied topic as it directly relates to the quality of machined products. Here, this study details the application of a Random Forest (RF) classifier with Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to machining audio collected by a single microphone during down-milling operations. This approach allows straightforward feature elimination that results in an easily understood set of analyzed dimensions. Stability is predicted solely based on the classification output of the RF classifier. Our approach proves highly predictive with consistent machining setup and a small sample set. We also review transferability between machining setups and present key findings. Our RF approach demonstrates the ability to analyze and classify chatter through a low-cost approach with limited training data required. The motivation for using a single microphone is to enable detection on machines without other sensors, such as accelerometers, present in the machining setup. The value of the in-process sensor and chatter classifier is highlighted because the machining setup included asymmetric dynamics that reduced the accuracy of the traditional analytical stability solution. We see a natural progression to deploying this audio-only methodology with real-time processing and classification using either a laptop or smartphone. This progression will allow visual indicators during the machining process that can alert machinists of progression into unstable machining processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The determination of operational and support requirements and costs during the conceptual design of space systems

The first year of research to provide NASA support in predicting operational and support parameters and costs of proposed space systems is reported. Some of the specific research objectives were (1) to develop a methodology for deriving reliability and maintainability parameters and, based upon their estimates, determine the operational capability and support costs, and (2) to identify data sources and establish an initial data base to implement the methodology. Implementation of the methodology is accomplished through the development of a comprehensive computer model. While the model appears to work reasonably well when applied to aircraft systems, it was not accurate when used for space systems. The model is dynamic and should be updated as new data become available. It is particularly important to integrate the current aircraft data base with data obtained from the Space Shuttle and other space systems since subsystems unique to a space vehicle require data not available from aircraft. This research only addressed the major subsystems on the vehicle.

Ebeling, Charles↗

Verification and validation of developed short-term forecasting models

Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies provide an opportunity for leveraging data-driven algorithms to predict future nuclear power plant (NPP) operating conditions by using recorded plant process data. Successfully implementing these models can lead to cost-reducing, conditioned-based predictive maintenance through optimized maintenance schedules and a reduction of unnecessary maintenance activities. This report discusses the verification and validation of short-term forecasting processes (i.e., data cleaning, feature selection, model optimization, and forecasting) developed in previous reports. The verification and validation (V&V) process demonstrates the expected precision and accuracy when the ML model encounters new datasets from different systems. Shapley additive explanations were used as the primary means of feature selection across these different data set. Individual models were trained for each data set, then validated through a cross-validation procedure. In this report, two different ML models were tasked to predict variables from three different plant process data sets with varying prediction horizons. The results indicate that support vector regression (SVR) outperformed long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks in regard to each data set and each prediction horizon in this study, but further tuning and optimization could improve long short-term memory results. However, each forecasting model showed reduced performance as the prediction horizon was extended from 1 hour to 1 day ahead. Research is ongoing to evaluate the optimal input variable space, which is based on a given set of process parameters, to further improve forecasting accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Spatial impacts of technological innovations on the levelized cost of energy for offshore wind power plants in the United States

Recent studies predict significant decreases in the future levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of offshore wind energy, much of which is attributed to anticipated cost reductions from technological innovation. This study evaluates the spatial variability of LCOE caused by technology-induced decreases in a range of capital, operational, and financial cost categories. A spatial cost model of fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind plants is used to model the impact across thousands of potential United States sites. A specified change in an individual turbine subsystem cost produces a range of LCOE outcomes due to the varying geospatial characteristics of the considered sites and the nonlinear, interactive dependency on these input parameters; for example, a 10.8% improvement in net capacity factor can reduce LCOE by between 6% and 20% at different sites. This work expands upon the existing offshore wind literature, which typically evaluates cost sensitivities at a single site and does not consider the spatial variance in LCOE. The results suggest that the impact of technological innovations can be considerable and should be considered on a spatial as well as temporal basis when prioritizing technology innovation research or funding decisions to advance offshore wind technologies in the United States.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗

A-Priori Tuning of Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for that particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor simulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗

Tuning Process for the Modified Magnussen Combustion Model

In the application of CFD to turbulent reacting flows, one of the main limitations to predictive accuracy is the chemistry model. Using a full or skeletal kinetics model may provide good predictive ability, however, at considerable computational cost. Adding the ability to account for the interaction between turbulence and chemistry improves the overall fidelity of a simulation but adds to this cost. An alternative is the use of simple models, such as the Magnussen model, which has negligible computational overhead, but lacks general predictive ability except for cases that can be tuned to the flow being solved. In this paper, a technique will be described that allows the tuning of the Magnussen model for an arbitrary fuel and flow geometry without the need to have experimental data for a particular case. The tuning is based on comparing the results of the Magnussen model and full finite-rate chemistry when applied to perfectly and partially stirred reactor sim- ulations. In addition, a modification to the Magnussen model is proposed that allows the upper kinetic limit for the reaction rate to be set, giving better physical agreement with full kinetic mechanisms. In order to improve the agreement with flame temperatures, the thermal properties of the product species is adjusted to better match the mixture proper- ties of the full mechanism. The combustion model is then applied to the simulation of a representative scramjet flowpath, and the results compared to experimental data and other kinetic models. This procedure allows a simple reacting model to be used in a predictive manner, and affords significant savings in computational costs for CFD simulations.

Norris, A. T.↗

Marine Energy Environmental Permitting and Compliance Costs

Costs to permit Marine Energy projects are poorly understood. In this paper we examine environmental compliance and permitting costs for 19 projects in the U.S., covering the last 2 decades. Guided discussions were conducted with developers over a 3-year period to obtain historical and ongoing project cost data relative to environmental studies (e.g., baseline or pre-project site characterization as well as post-installation effects monitoring), stakeholder outreach, and mitigation, as well as qualitative experience of the permitting process. Data are organized in categories of technology type, permitted capacity, pre- and post-installation, geographic location, and funding types. We also compare our findings with earlier logic models created for the Department of Energy (i.e., Reference Models). Environmental studies most commonly performed were for Fish and Fisheries, Noise, Marine Habitat/Benthic Studies and Marine Mammals. Studies for tidal projects were more expensive than those performed for wave projects and the range of reported project costs tended to be wider than ranges predicted by logic models. For eight projects reporting full project costs, from project start to FERC or USACE permit, the average amount for environmental permitting compliance was 14.6%.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗