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At least 289 records · Page 16

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗

Climatic Effects of 1950-2050 Changes in US Anthropogenic Aerosols: Aerosol Trends and Radiative Forcing - Part 1

We calculate decadal aerosol direct and indirect (warm cloud) radiative forcings from US anthropogenic sources over the 1950-2050 period. Past and future aerosol distributions are constructed using GEOS-Chem and historical emission inventories and future projections from the IPCC A1B scenario. Aerosol simulations are evaluated with observed spatial distributions and 1980-2010 trends of aerosol concentrations and wet deposition in the contiguous US. Direct and indirect radiative forcing is calculated using the GISS general circulation model and monthly mean aerosol distributions from GEOS-Chem. The radiative forcing from US anthropogenic aerosols is strongly localized over the eastern US. We find that its magnitude peaked in 1970-1990, with values over the eastern US (east of 100 deg W) of −2.0Wm(exp−2 for direct forcing including contributions from sulfate (−2.0Wm−2), nitrate (−0.2Wm(exp−2), organic carbon (−0.2Wm(exp−2), and black carbon (+0.4Wm(exp−2). The uncertainties in radiative forcing due to aerosol radiative properties are estimated to be about 50 %. The aerosol indirect effect is estimated to be of comparable magnitude to the direct forcing. We find that the magnitude of the forcing declined sharply from 1990 to 2010 (by 0.8Wm(exp−2) direct and 1.0Wm(exp−2 indirect), mainly reflecting decreases in SO2 emissions, and project that it will continue declining post-2010 but at a much slower rate since US SO2 emissions have already declined by almost 60% from their peak. This suggests that much of the warming effect of reducing US anthropogenic aerosol sources has already been realized. The small positive radiative forcing from US BC emissions (+0.3Wm(exp−2 over the eastern US in 2010; 5% of the global forcing from anthropogenic BC emissions worldwide) suggests that a US emission control strategy focused on BC would have only limited climate benefit.

climate change↗

Electron Pitch-Angle Distribution in Pressure Balance Structures Measured by Ulysses/SWOOPS

Pressure balance structures (PBSs) are a common feature in the high-latitude solar wind near solar minimum. From previous studies, PBSs are believed to be remnants of coronal plumes. Yamauchi et al [2002] investigated the magnetic structures of the PBSs, applying a minimum variance analysis to Ulysses/Magnetometer data. They found that PBSs contain structures like current sheets or plasmoids, and suggested that PBSs are associated with network activity such as magnetic reconnection in the photosphere at the base of polar plumes. We have investigated energetic electron data from Ulysses/SWOOPS to see whether bi-directional electron flow exists and we have found evidence supporting the earlier conclusions. We find that 45 ot of 53 PBSs show local bi-directional or isotopic electron flux or flux associated with current-sheet structure. Only five events show the pitch-angle distribution expected for Alfvenic fluctuations. We conclude that PBSs do contain magnetic structures such as current sheets or plasmoids that are expected as a result of network activity at the base of polar plumes.

Yamauchi, Yohei↗

Buckling response of laminates with spatially varying fiber orientations

The buckling response of a symmetrically laminated composite panel with a spatially varying fiber orientation has been analyzed. Variation of the fiber orientation angle as a function of the position in the panel results in a composite laminate with stiffness properties that are functions of the panel coordinates. The laminates are therefore termed variable stiffness panels. The fiber orientation is assumed to vary only in one spatial direction, although the analysis can be extended to fiber orientations that vary in two spatial directions. The Ritz Method has been used to find the buckling loads and buckling modes for the variable stiffness panels for two different cases. In one of the cases the fiber orientation is assumed to change in the direction of the applied load. The other case is the one in which the fiber orientation varies in a direction perpendicular to the loading direction. Improvements in the buckling load of up to 80 percent over straight fiber configurations were found. Results for three different panel aspect ratios are presented.

Olmedo, Reynaldo↗

The Prelude to and Aftermath of the Giant Flare of 2004 December 27: Persistent and Pulsed X-ray Properties of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005

We report on the evolution of key spectral and temporal parameters of SGR 1806-20 prior to and following the highly energetic giant flare of 2004 December 27. Using RXTE, we track the pulse frequency of the SGR and find that the spin-down rate varied erratically in the months before and after the flare. Contrary to the giant flare in SGR 1900+14, we find no evidence for a discrete jump in spin frequency at the time of the December 27th flare (Absolute value of (Delta * upsilon/upsilon) < 5 10 (exp -6)). In the months surrounding the flare, we find a strong correlation between pulsed flux and torque consistent with the model for magnetar magnetosphere electrodynamics proposed. As with the flare in SGR 1900+14, the pulse morphology of SGR 1806-20 changes drastically following the flare. Using Chandra and other publicly available imaging X-ray detector observations, we construct a spectral history of SGR 1806-20 from 1993 to 2005. The usual magnetar persistent emission spectral model of a power law plus a blackbody provides an excellent fit to the data. We confirm the earlier finding of increasing spectral hardness of SGR 1806-20 between 1993 and 2004. However, our results indicate significant differences in the temporal evolution of the spectral hardening. Rather than a direct correlation between torque and spectral hardness, we find evidence for a sudden torque change that preceded a gradual hardening of the energy spectrum on a timescale of years. Interestingly, the spectral hardness, spin-down rate, phase-averaged flux, and pulsed flux of SGR 1806-20 all peak months before the flare epoch.

Woods, Peter M.↗

Streaming Instability with Multiple Dust Species – I. Favourable Conditions for the Linear Growth

A recent study suggests that the streaming instability, one of the leading mechanisms for driving the formation of planetesimals, may not be as efficient as previously thought. Under some disc conditions, the growth time-scale of the instability can be longer than the disc lifetime when multiple dust species are considered. To further explore this finding, we use both linear analysis and direct numerical simulations with gas fluid and dust particles tomutually validate and study the unstablemodes of the instability in more detail.We extend the previously studied parameter space by one order of magnitude in both the range of the dust-size distribution [Ts, min, Ts, max] and the total solid-to-gas mass ratio ε and introduce a third dimension with the slope q of the size distribution. We find that the fast-growth regime and the slow-growth regime are distinctly separated in the ε–Ts, max space, while this boundary is not appreciably sensitive to q or Ts, min.With a wide range of dust sizes present in the disc (e.g. Ts, min  10−3), the growth rate in the slow-growth regime decreases as more dust species are considered.With a narrow range of dust sizes (e.g. Ts, max/Ts, min = 5), on the other hand, the growth rate in most of the ε–Ts, max space is converged with increasing dust species, but the fast and the slow growth regimes remain clearly separated. Moreover, it is not necessary that the largest dust species dominate the growth of the unstable modes, and the smaller dust species can affect the growth rate in a complicated way. In any case, we find that the fast-growth regime is bounded by ε  1 or Ts, max  1, which may represent the favourable conditions for planetesimal formation.

Zhaohuan Zhu↗

Effect of stromal-cell-derived factor 1 on stem-cell homing and tissue regeneration in ischaemic cardiomyopathy

BACKGROUND: Myocardial regeneration via stem-cell mobilisation at the time of myocardial infarction is known to occur, although the mechanism for stem-cell homing to infarcted tissue subsequently and whether this approach can be used for treatment of ischaemic cardiomyopathy are unknown. We investigated these issues in a Lewis rat model (ligation of the left anterior descending artery) of ischaemic cardiomyopathy. METHODS: We studied the effects of stem-cell mobilisation by use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (filgrastim) with or without transplantation of syngeneic cells. Shortening fraction and myocardial strain by tissue doppler imaging were quantified by echocardiography. FINDINGS: Stem-cell mobilisation with filgrastim alone did not lead to engraftment of bone-marrow-derived cells. Stromal-cell-derived factor 1 (SDF-1), required for stem-cell homing to bone marrow, was upregulated immediately after myocardial infarction and downregulated within 7 days. 8 weeks after myocardial infarction, transplantation into the peri-infarct zone of syngeneic cardiac fibroblasts stably transfected to express SDF-1 induced homing of CD117-positive stem cells to injured myocardium after filgrastim administration (control vs SDF-1-expressing cardiac fibroblasts mean 7.2 [SD 3.4] vs 33.2 [6.0] cells/mm2, n=4 per group, p<0.02) resulting in greater left-ventricular mass (1.24 [0.29] vs 1.57 [0.27] g) and better cardiac function (shortening fraction 9.2 [4.9] vs 17.2 [4.2]%, n=8 per group, p<0.05). INTERPRETATION: These findings show that SDF-1 is sufficient to induce therapeutic stem-cell homing to injured myocardium and suggest a strategy for directed stem-cell engraftment into injured tissues. Our findings also indicate that therapeutic strategies focused on stem-cell mobilisation for regeneration of myocardial tissue must be initiated within days of myocardial infarction unless signalling for stem-cell homing is re-established.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Unusual Polar Conditions in Solar Cycle 24 and Their Implications for Cycle 25

We report on the prolonged solar-maximum conditions until late 2015 at the north-polar region of the Sun indicated by the occurrence of high-latitude prominence eruptions (PEs) and microwave brightness temperature close to the quiet-Sun level. These two aspects of solar activity indicate that the polarity reversal was completed by mid-2014 in the south and late 2015 in the north. The microwave brightness in the south-polar region has increased to a level exceeding the level of the Cycle 23/24 minimum, but just started to increase in the north. The northsouth asymmetry in the polarity reversal has switched from that in Cycle 23. These observations lead us to the hypothesis that the onset of Cycle 25 in the northern hemisphere is likely to be delayed with respect to that in the southern hemisphere. We find that the unusual condition in the north is a direct consequence of the arrival of poleward surges of opposite polarity from the active region belt. We also find that multiple rush-to-the-pole episodes were indicated by the PE locations that lined up at the boundary between opposite-polarity surges. The high-latitude PEs occurred in the boundary between the incumbent polar flux and the insurgent flux of opposite polarity.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗

Deconvolution of SNPP VIIRS Solar Diffuser Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function On-orbit Change Factor

The Earth-observing Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite regularly calibrates its reflective solar bands (RSBs), primarily through observing an onboard sunlit solar diffuser (SD). The on-orbit change of the value of the SD bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) is quantified by a numerical factor, called the H-factor, and is determined by the onboard SD stability monitor (SDSM). Because the spectral response function of an SDSM detector spreads in wavelength, the directly measured H-factor is the true H-factor convolved with the spectral response function. To find the true H-factor, we use the traditional direct method and an innovative iterative approach to separately deconvolve the measured H-factor. Our iterative approach relies on two properties of the SDSM detector spectral response function: the central peak width is narrow enough so that the H-factor does not change much over the peak width, and the dominance of the spectral response function’s integral with respect to the wavelength over the width. The iterative approach is more accurate, of a smaller noise impact, much more flexible in terms of interpolation and extrapolation of function values, and faster. We have used deconvolved H-factors to calibrate the NASA SNPP VIIRS RSB Collections 1 and 2 Level-1B products.

SNPP VIIRS↗

Direct analysis of gain-guided phase-locked semiconductor laser arrays

A method for analyzing arbitrary one-dimensional waveguides is described and applied to find the lateral modes of gain-guided laser arrays directly, without the need for a coupled-mode approximation. Detailed results are given for a four-element array for which experimental results are available, and the effect of varying device parameters on the relative gains of the modes is considered. The results show differences between gain-guided and real-index guided arrays which are not evident in prior analyses.

Marshall, W. K.↗

The Distribution of Radioactive Ti-44 in Cassiopeia A

The distribution of elements produced in the innermost layers of a supernova explosion is a key diagnostic for studying the collapse of massive stars. Here we present the results of a 2.4 Ms NuSTAR observing campaign aimed at studying the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A (Cas A). We perform spatially resolved spectroscopic analysis of the Ti-44 ejecta, which we use to determine the Doppler shift and thus the three-dimensional (3D) velocities of the Ti-44 ejecta. We find an initial Ti-44 mass of (1.54 +/- 0.21) x 10(exp. -4) Solar Mass, which has a present-day average momentum direction of 340 degrees +/- 15 degrees projected onto the plane of the sky (measured clockwise from celestial North) and is tilted by 58 degrees +/- 20 degrees into the plane of the sky away from the observer, roughly opposite to the inferred direction of motion of the central compact object. We find some Ti-44 ejecta that are clearly interior to the reverse shock and some that are clearly exterior to it. Where we observe Ti-44 ejecta exterior to the reverse shock we also see shock-heated iron; however, there are regions where we see iron but do not observe Ti-44. This suggests that the local conditions of the supernova shock during explosive nucleosynthesis varied enough to suppress the production of Ti-44 by at least a factor of two in some regions, even in regions that are assumed to be the result of processes like Alpha-rich freezeout that should produce both iron and titanium.

rays: general – ISM: supernova remnants – nucl↗

A dynamic measure of controllability and observability for the placement of actuators and sensors on large space structures

The degree of controllability of a large space structure is found by a four step procedure: (1) finding the minimum control energy for driving the system from a given initial state to the origin in the prescribed time; (2) finding the region of initial state which can be driven to the origin with constrained control energy and time using optimal control strategy; (3) scaling the axes so that a unit displacement in every direction is equally important to control; and (4) finding the linear measurement of the weighted "volume" of the ellipsoid in the equicontrol space. For observability, the error covariance must be reduced toward zero using measurements optimally, and the criterion must be standardized by the magnitude of tolerable errors. The results obtained using these methods are applied to the vibration modes of a free-free beam.

Vandervelde, W. E.↗

Boundary layer receptivity and control

Receptivity processes initiate natural instabilities in a boundary layer. The instabilities grow and eventually break down to turbulence. Consequently, receptivity questions are a critical element of the analysis of the transition process. Success in modeling the physics of receptivity processes thus has a direct bearing on technological issues of drag reduction. The means by which transitional flows can be controlled is also a major concern: questions of control are tied inevitably to those of receptivity. Adjoint systems provide a highly effective mathematical method for approaching many of the questions associated with both receptivity and control. The long term objective is to develop adjoint methods to handle increasingly complex receptivity questions, and to find systematic procedures for deducing effective control strategies. The most elementary receptivity problem is that in which a parallel boundary layer is forced by time-harmonic sources of various types. The characteristics of the response to such forcing form the building blocks for more complex receptivity mechanisms. The first objective of this year's research effort was to investigate how a parallel Blasius boundary layer responds to general direct forcing. Acoustic disturbances in the freestream can be scattered by flow non-uniformities to produce Tollmien-Schlichting waves. For example, scattering by surface roughness is known to provide an efficient receptivity path. The present effort is directed towards finding a solution by a simple adjoint analysis, because adjoint methods can be extended to more complex problems. In practice, flows are non-parallel and often three-dimensional. Compressibility may also be significant in some cases. Recent developments in the use of Parabolized Stability Equations (PSE) offer a promising possibility. By formulating and solving a set of adjoint parabolized equations, a method for mapping the efficiency with which external forcing excites the three-dimensional motions of a non-parallel boundary layer was developed. The method makes use of the same computationally efficient formulation that makes the PSE currently so appealing. In the area of flow control, adjoint systems offer a powerful insight into the effect of control forces. One of the simplest control strategies for boundary layers involves the application of localized mean wall suction.

Hill, D. C.↗

Prediction of Active-Region CME Productivity from Magnetograms

We report results of an expanded evaluation of whole-active-region magnetic measures as predictors of active-region coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity. Previously, in a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions observed by the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph, from each magnetogram we extracted a measure of the size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux a) and four measures of the nonpotentiality of the active region: the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the net vertical electric current I(sub N), and the net-current magnetic twist parameter alpha (sub IN). This sample size allowed us to show that each of the four nonpotentiality measures was statistically significantly correlated with active-region CME productivity in time windows of a few days centered on the day of the magnetogram. We have now added a fifth measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the best-constant-alpha magnetic twist parameter (alpha sub BC)), and have expanded the sample to 36 MSFC vector magnetograms of 31 bipolar active regions. This larger sample allows us to demonstrate statistically significant correlations of each of the five nonpotentiality measures with future CME productivity, in time windows of a few days starting from the day of the magnetogram. The two magnetic twist parameters (alpha (sub 1N) and alpha (sub BC)) are normalized measures of an active region s nonpotentially in that they do not depend directly on the size of the active region, while the other three nonpotentiality measures (L(sub SS), L(sub SG), and I(sub N)) are non-normalized measures in that they do depend directly on active-region size. We find (1) Each of the five nonpotentiality measures is statistically significantly correlated (correlation confidence level greater than 95%) with future CME productivity and has a CME prediction success rate of approximately 80%. (2) None of the nonpotentiality measures is a significantly better CME predictor than the others. (3) The active-region phi shows some correlation with CME productivity, but well below a statistically significant level (correlation confidence level less than approximately 80%; CME prediction success rate less than approximately 65%). (4) In addition to depending on magnetic twist, CME productivity appears to have some direct dependence on active-region size (rather than only an indirect dependence through a correlation of magnetic twist with active-region size), but it will take a still larger sample of active regions (50 or more) to certify this. (5) Of the five nonpotentiality measures, L(sub SG) appears to be the best for operational CME forecasting because it is as good or better a CME predictor than the others and it alone does not require a vector magnetogram; L(sub SG) can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram such as from the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Falconer, D. A.↗

Reduction of obesity, as induced by leptin, reverses endothelial dysfunction in obese (Lep(ob)) mice

Obesity is a major health care problem and is associated with significant cardiovascular morbidity. Leptin, a neuroendocrine hormone released by adipose tissue, is important in modulating obesity by signaling satiety and increasing metabolism. Moreover, leptin receptors are expressed on vascular endothelial cells (ECs) and mediate angiogenesis. We hypothesized that leptin may also play an important role in vasoregulation. We investigated vasoregulatory mechanisms in the leptin-deficient obese (ob/ob) mouse model and determined the influence of leptin replacement on endothelial-dependent vasorelaxant responses. The direct effect of leptin on EC nitric oxide (NO) production was also tested by using 4, 5-diaminofluorescein-2 diacetate staining and measurement of nitrate and nitrite concentrations. Vasoconstrictor responses to phenylephrine, norepinephrine, and U-46619 were markedly enhanced in aortic rings from ob/ob mice and were modulated by NO synthase inhibition. Vasorelaxant responses to ACh were markedly attenuated in mesenteric microvessels from ob/ob mice. Leptin replacement resulted in significant weight loss and reversal of the impaired endothelial-dependent vasorelaxant responses observed in ob/ob mice. Preincubation of ECs with leptin enhanced the release of NO production. Thus leptin-deficient ob/ob mice demonstrate marked abnormalities in vasoregulation, including impaired endothelial-dependent vasodilation, which is reversed by leptin replacement. These findings may be partially explained by the direct effect of leptin on endothelial NO production. These vascular abnormalities are similar to those observed in obese, diabetic, leptin-resistant humans. The ob/ob mouse may, therefore, be an excellent new model for the study of the cardiovascular effects of obesity.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

Attempted nonenzymatic template-directed oligomerizations on a polyadenylic acid template: implications for the nature of the first genetic material

Previous attempts to produce nonenzymatic template-directed oligomerizations of activated pyrimidines on polypurine templates have been unsuccessful. The only efficient reactions are those where the template is composed primarily of pyrimidines, especially cytosine. Because molecular evolution requires that a synthesized daughter polynucleotide be capable of acting as a template for the synthesis of the original polynucleotide, the one-way replication achieved thus far is inadequate to initiate an evolving system. Several uracil analogs were used in this investigation in order to search for possible replacements for uracil. The monomers used in this investigation were the imidazolides of UMP, xanthosine 5'-monophosphate, the bis-monophosphates of the acyclic nucleosides of uracil, and 2,4-quinazolinedione. The concentrations of various salts, buffers, pH, and temperature were among the different variables investigated in attempts to find conditions that would permit template-directed oligomerizations. Although the different monomers in this study demonstrated varying abilities to form very short oligomers, we were unable to detect any enhancement of this oligomerization that could be attributed to the poly(A) template. Although special conditions might be found that would allow purine-rich templates to work, these reactions cannot be considered robust. The results of our experiments suggest that pyrimidines were not part of the original replicating system on the primitive Earth. It has already been shown that ribose is an unlikely component of the first replicating systems, and we now suggest that phosphate was absent as well. This is due to the low solubility of phosphate in the present ocean (3 x 10(-6) M), as well as the difficulty of prebiotic activation of phosphates.

Non-NASA Center↗

Dynamics of the Impacts

The SL9 impacts are best known by their plumes, several of which were imaged towering 3000 km above Jupiter's limb. The heat released when they fen back on the atmosphere produced the famous infrared main events. The reentry shock was observed directly in CO emission and indirectly through thermally glowing dust. The relatively low color temperature of the latter implies that most of the energy released on reentry was radiated. If so, the R impact released some 3 x 10(exp 26) ergs, and the larger L, K, and G impacts as much as 3 x 10(exp 27) ergs. These estimates agree well with impact energies deduced from tidal disruption computations. The duration of the infrared events measures time aloft and hence provides a second measure of plume height. These indicate that plume height was only weakly dependent on impact energy. Evidently all the plumes were launched at roughly 10-13 km/s. Using a semi-analytic model for the deceleration, disintegration, and destruction of intruding bodies by an ever-vigilant atmosphere, we find that similar plume heights is a direct consequence of smaller impactors exploding at higher altitudes, in such a way that the different explosions were geometrically similar. We then compare the predictions of our model to the Venerian cratering record, which provides a good statistical test of impact deceleration by a thick atmosphere. Chemistry should have provided an independent measure of explosion altitude: abundant shock-generated CS, CS2 and HCN indicates a source in dry jovian air, above the putative water clouds. However, the Galileo Probe results seem to imply that we should expect no more. Observed water and S2 are consistent with a somewhat oxidized gas (presumably the comet itself), but the absence of SO2 and CO2 shows that conditions were neither too oxidizing nor the shocks too hot.

Zahnle, Kevin↗