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At least 289 records · Page 16

Benchmarking Diagnostic Algorithms on an Electrical Power System Testbed

Diagnostic algorithms (DAs) are key to enabling automated health management. These algorithms are designed to detect and isolate anomalies of either a component or the whole system based on observations received from sensors. In recent years a wide range of algorithms, both model-based and data-driven, have been developed to increase autonomy and improve system reliability and affordability. However, the lack of support to perform systematic benchmarking of these algorithms continues to create barriers for effective development and deployment of diagnostic technologies. In this paper, we present our efforts to benchmark a set of DAs on a common platform using a framework that was developed to evaluate and compare various performance metrics for diagnostic technologies. The diagnosed system is an electrical power system, namely the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) developed and located at the NASA Ames Research Center. The paper presents the fundamentals of the benchmarking framework, the ADAPT system, description of faults and data sets, the metrics used for evaluation, and an in-depth analysis of benchmarking results obtained from testing ten diagnostic algorithms on the ADAPT electrical power system testbed.

Kurtoglu, Tolga↗

Developing an Air Quality Index for Space Vehicles and Habitats

The development of an adequate tool to help the layperson understand pollution levels in their environment is of high importance. This tool must be able to inform about the levels of pollution in a simple and understandable way but also can be used for decision-making and mitigation activities to protect the health of the exposed population. One of the most useful and up-to-date approaches for characterizing air pollution is the Air Quality Index (AQI). It is an easily-calculated, powerful, data-driven tool that summarizes a complex phenomenon, such as air pollution, in straightforward indicators. The AQI system has been developed in different countries around the world, mainly for outdoor environments, based on the results of risk assessments, epidemiological studies, and current local air pollution regulations and standards. There is a need for such a system in low gravity indoor environments where air quality is of fundamental importance to astronaut health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and particulate matter. Earth-based AQIs cannot be extrapolated to microgravity indoor environments due to different aerosol transport characteristics and altered lung deposition in low and partial gravity. The objectives of this work are to explore what areas of expertise, types of research, and data will be required to formulate a spacecraft-specific AQI. An initial dataset is available for this effort, combined from two aerosol sampling experiments, which have characterized airborne particulate matter on the International Space Station (ISS). We outline future research needs for formulating a narrowly focused version of a widely-used metric, namely, an indoor AQI for future space missions.

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗

Statistical Estimation of Orbital Debris Populations with a Spectrum of Object Size

Orbital debris is a real concern for the safe operations of satellites. In general, the hazard of debris impact is a function of the size and spatial distributions of the debris populations. To describe and characterize the debris environment as reliably as possible, the current NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2000) is being upgraded to a new version based on new and better quality data. The data-driven ORDEM model covers a wide range of object sizes from 10 microns to greater than 1 meter. This paper reviews the statistical process for the estimation of the debris populations in the new ORDEM upgrade, and discusses the representation of large-size (greater than or equal to 1 m and greater than or equal to 10 cm) populations by SSN catalog objects and the validation of the statistical approach. Also, it presents results for the populations with sizes of greater than or equal to 3.3 cm, greater than or equal to 1 cm, greater than or equal to 100 micrometers, and greater than or equal to 10 micrometers. The orbital debris populations used in the new version of ORDEM are inferred from data based upon appropriate reference (or benchmark) populations instead of the binning of the multi-dimensional orbital-element space. This paper describes all of the major steps used in the population-inference procedure for each size-range. Detailed discussions on data analysis, parameter definition, the correlation between parameters and data, and uncertainty assessment are included.

Xu, Y. -l↗

A Knowledge Graph Framework for Organizing Heterogeneous Datasets for Utilization in Classical and Quantum Computing: Current Challenges and Future Directions

"The escalating impact of climate change induced extreme weather events in urban, suburban, and rural environments demands a rethink of how we have been using the single event-based or use-case-based knowledge graph models. The lack of representation in interaction within environmental variables found in literature led to the development of a novel framework that reflects the true nature of the interconnectedness in our environment. We propose an Environmental Interaction Knowledge Graph (EIKG) framework. This general EIKG framework works as the basis for interconnected environmental events by knitting interrelated events such as hurricanes leading to storm surges, which lead to flood events that could cause mudslides, landslides, etc., The cascading nature of one event leading to another related event in the environment requires an adequate understanding of each event using contextual information before conducting any data-driven analytics. This vision paper showcases how the EIKG:floods, EIKG:wildfire EIKG:landslides, etc, can be derived from a base case framework of EIKG as those individual events are interconnected with some common denominator variables. As an example, the precipitation variable is used in the flood case study as well as in the wildfire case study, as excessive precipitation levels lead to floods, and lack of precipitation leads to droughts and wildfires. We identify the precipitation variable as a “common-denominator-variable” in extreme weather events that play a key role in modeling the environment leading to different extreme weather events based on the variability of that variable (varying values where low precipitation leads to drought, and high values lead to floods). We use the insights gained from EIKG to conduct classical and Quantum Machine Learning (QML) based data analysis on the research questions developed. Our preliminary study shows how the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) and Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) are used along with the classical machine learning models to compare the model accuracies. Our study elaborates on how a quantitative analysis uses state-of-the-art machine learning techniques that include implementing both classical and quantum machine learning models and developing the knowledge graph. The EIKG is used to organize heterogeneous datasets and integrate the relations to case-specific extreme weather events such as floods. The study uses datasets such as county-to-country residential mobility data, socioeconomic datasets from the US Census Bureau, climate and weather-related Earth Observational data from NASA, and critical infrastructure data from the Homeland Infrastructure datasets."

Knowledge Graphs, Quantum Computing, Heterogenous ↗

Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.

Uncertainty↗

Clustering Approach To Identifying Low Lunar Frozen Orbits In A High-Fidelity Model

Low lunar frozen orbits are of continued interest in the astrodynamics community for trajectory design and space domain awareness. This paper presents a data-driven approach to analyzing a wide variety of numerically-generated lunar trajectories in a 100 × 100 lunar gravity model with the point mass gravity of the Earth and Sun. First, clustering is used to extract a summary of these trajectories: within each cluster, trajectories possess a geometrically similar evolution of perilune but varying drift and lifetimes. Within some clusters, trajectories with a bounded perilune evolution are also identified to produce candidates for lunar frozen orbits of distinct geometries.

lunar frozen orbit gravity model data clustering↗

Multisensor Machine Learning to Retrieve High Spatiotemporal Resolution Land Surface Temperature

Climate change is making heat waves more frequent, long-lasting, and severe. While multiple satellite types provide data to monitor surface temperature, geostationary (GEO) sensors provide near-continuous, continental-scale observations which can better capture the diurnal variability of land surface temperature (LST) than intermittent observations from low-earth orbit (LEO) sensors. However, standard products from GEO satellites are available at coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions compared to the native sensor resolution. Using datasets from the NASA Earth Exchange, we leveraged co-located, co-temporal observations from LEO and GEO satellites to learn a data-driven mapping using a convolutional neural network. The resulting NASA Earth eXchange Artificial Intelligence LST (NEXAI-LST) achieved a mean absolute error of 1.73 K relative to the target LEO product and improves on both spatial and temporal resolution [2 km, 10 minute] compared to the GEO full disk standard product [10 km, hourly]. In validation against measurements from a ground-based sensor network, NEXAI-LST achieves similar or better fit than both LEO and GEO standard products, while depending none of the prior knowledge of land surface and atmospheric states required by physical-statistical models. Further, application of the model to unseen LEO and GEO satellites demonstrates robust generalization of the model across spatial region, time of day, and sensor. In support of NASA’s open-source science initiative, we make our NEXAI-LST product, model, and codes available to facilitate data exploration and further studies.

Kate Marie Duffy↗

Development of a Safety Hazards Risk Assessment Tool for Uncrewed Aircraft System Traffic Management during Preflight Planning

Tremendous growth in the uncrewed and remotely piloted vehicle market is expected in low-altitude, uncontrolled airspace, resulting in potential decreases in safety without systems that support monitoring, assessing, and mitigating risk. At NASA, the System-Wide Safety (SWS) project has been developing a suite of data-driven tools to predict hazards so that the potential risks that these hazards pose can be mitigated. Services to predict various hazards have been developed, including battery capacity, proximity to static obstacles, population risks, global positioning system signal strength, radio frequency spectrum interference risk, and vertiport congestion. These services can monitor hazards along a flight path and if any risks posed by these hazards exceed a threshold, the uncrewed aircraft system (UAS) fleet manager can be alerted to mitigate the risk by modifying the flight path, changing the scheduled departure or arrival times, and/or diverting the vehicle to an alternate vertiport. These services were originally developed to monitor and assess risks during flight, but they have been adapted to assess hazard risks prior to departure so that a fleet manager can evaluate the potential risks for a fleet of UAS along their planned flight paths. These services have been integrated into a prototype tool called the Supplemental Data Service Provider-Consolidated Dashboard (SDSP-CD), developed at NASA Ames Research Center. The tool consists of a dashboard which provides a comprehensive overview for a number of risks and a map display that shows the details of the hazards along each flight’s path. Based on the findings from three previous studies, the SDSP-CD has been updated with new design elements and functions. In this paper, we describe lessons learned from the previous studies, changes made to the interface, and the feedback received during a follow-up usability study. Overall, participants reported that there is a substantial benefit of having a fleet manager use a consolidated dashboard to assess hazards for the vehicles in their fleet and to provide situational awareness to potential risks so that they can be mitigated prior to flight. Once the SDSP-CD matures, it will need to be integrated into flight and mission planning tools. Some initial thoughts on how this integration should be accomplished are shared in this paper. Finally, the functional differences between preflight vs. in-flight risk assessment and the differences in fleet manager vs. UAS pilot roles that may require different information and user interactions are discussed.

preflight↗

Handling Qualities Assessment of Manual Lunar Landing with Display Augmentation

Research and development is being conducted to support data-driven design decisions for manual control and human involvement in the lunar landing task under the Human Landing System (HLS) program within the Artemis campaign. A human-in-the-loop simulator evaluation of the manual control of a lunar landing vehicle in the final approach and landing phase was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center in the Lunar Flight Deck simulator using the Altair Design and Analysis Cycle (DAC)-2 government reference vehicle. The objective was to perform a direct comparison of control law types with display aiding for various rotational control powers being considered under HLS. Ten subjects (four NASA test pilots and six current pilot astronauts) provided Cooper-Harper ratings, NASA Task Load Index workload ratings, and qualitative comments. The piloting task was to assume manual control of the vehicle (including vertical descent rate) at 150 m above the landing zone, fly to a redesignated landing target (which was up to 75 m radially from the center of the landing zone) and to touch down within a position accuracy of 5m. The data showed that the display augmentation in the form of a “hover cue” significantly improved the pilot’s ability to control translation and create satisfactory handling qualities for otherwise sluggish configurations; however, the investigation also showed that display augmentation is not a panacea. Handling qualities problems, including pilot-induced oscillations, and higher workload for the lowest control powers can still be evident.

Lynda J. Kramer↗

Handling Qualities Assessment of Manual Lunar Landing with Display Augmentation

Research and development is being conducted to support data-driven design decisions for manual control and human involvement in the lunar landing task under the Human Landing System (HLS) program within the Artemis campaign. A human-in-the-loop simulator evaluation of the manual control of a lunar landing vehicle in the final approach and landing phase was conducted at NASA Langley Research Center in the Lunar Flight Deck simulator using the Altair Design and Analysis Cycle (DAC)-2 government reference vehicle. The objective was to perform a direct comparison of control law types with display aiding for various rotational control powers being considered under HLS. Ten subjects (four NASA test pilots and six current pilot astronauts) provided Cooper-Harper ratings, NASA Task Load Index workload ratings, and qualitative comments. The piloting task was to assume manual control of the vehicle (including vertical descent rate) at 150 m above the landing zone, fly to a redesignated landing target (which was up to 75 m radially from the center of the landing zone) and to touch down within a position accuracy of 5m. The data showed that the display augmentation in the form of a “hover cue” significantly improved the pilot’s ability to control translation and create satisfactory handling qualities for otherwise sluggish configurations; however, the investigation also showed that display augmentation is not a panacea. Handling qualities problems, including pilot-induced oscillations, and higher workload for the lowest control powers can still be evident.

Lynda Kramer↗

Developing an Air Quality Index for Microgravity Indoor Environments/Space Missions

Indoor pollution sources (on Earth) that release gases or particles into the air are the primary cause of air quality problems in indoor environments. The development of an adequate tool to understand pollution levels in a certain location is of high importance. This tool must be able to inform about the levels of pollution in a simple and understandable way but also, used to take a series of predetermined measures to protect the health of the exposed population. One of the most useful and up to date approaches for characterizing air pollution is the Air Quality Index (AQI). It is an easily-calculated powerful data-driven tool, that summarizes a complex phenomenon, such as air pollution, in straightforward indicators. The AQI system has been developed in different countries around the world, mainly for outdoor environments, based on the results of risk assessments, epidemiology studies, and current local air pollution regulations and standards.Air quality in microgravity indoor environments is of fundamental importance to crew health, with concerns encompassing both gaseous contaminants and particulate matter. Although the concentration of gases in the microgravity indoor environment is well studied, aerosols remain one of the major pollutants that affect air quality and has reported adverse health effects and hasn't been reported under these unique conditions. Earth-based AQIs can't be extrapolated to microgravity indoor environments due to different aerosol characteristics and altered lung deposition in low gravity.Concurrent with the aerosol-focused AQI effort, we assess and document how the process would apply for combining particles & gases into a composite index, with the ability to query each AQI independently. All this information can be combined in a spacecraft-specific AQI for future space missions and habitats. The objective of this work are to determine what areas of expertise will contribute, what research and data will be required, and explore the scope of effort needed to formulate a spacecraft AQI in addition to analyzing ISS aerosol sampling data and incorporate results from both aerosol Sampling experiments (the only relevant data available from space).

Sorek-Hamer, Meytar↗

Mapping Global Forest Age from Forest Inventories, Biomass and Climate Data

Forest age can determine the capacity of a forest to uptake carbon from the atmosphere. However, a lack of global diagnostics that reflect the forest stage and associated disturbance regimes hampers the quantification of age-related differences in forest carbon dynamics. This study provides a new global distribution of forest age circa 2010, estimated using a machine learning approach trained with more than 40 000 plots using forest inventory, biomass and climate data. First, an evaluation against the plot-level measurements of forest age reveals that the data-driven method has a relatively good predictive capacity of classifying old-growth vs. non-old-growth (precision = 0.81 and 0.99 for old-growth and non-old-growth, respectively) forests and estimating corresponding forest age estimates (NSE = 0.6 – Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency – and RMSE = 50 years – root-mean-square error). However, there are systematic biases of overestimation in young- and underestimation in old-forest stands, respectively. Globally, we find a large variability in forest age with the old-growth forests in the tropical regions of Amazon and Congo, young forests in China, and intermediate stands in Europe. Furthermore, we find that the regions with high rates of deforestation or forest degradation (e.g. the arc of deforestation in the Amazon) are composed mainly of younger stands. Assessment of forest age in the climate space shows that the old forests are either in cold and dry regions or warm and wet regions, while young–intermediate forests span a large climatic gradient. Finally, comparing the presented forest age estimates with a series of regional products reveals differences rooted in different approaches and different in situ observations and global-scale products. Despite showing robustness in cross-validation results, additional methodological insights on further developments should as much as possible harmonize data across the different approaches. The forest age dataset presented here provides additional insights into the global distribution of forest age to better understand the global dynamics in the forest water and carbon cycles. The forest age datasets are openly available at https://doi.org/10.17871/ForestAgeBGI.2021 (Besnard et al., 2021).

Simon Besnard↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Global SO 2 Data Record from OMPS Instruments on the JPSS Constellation

NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) SO 2 climate data record (CDR) started in 2004, with the launch of the Aura/Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and is now being continued with the SNPP/Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) launched in 2011. Both OMI and SNPP/OMPS SO 2 CDRs are produced with the Goddard principal component analysis (PCA) spectral fitting algorithm. An advantage of the data-driven PCA retrieval technique is that it enables highly consistent retrievals from different instruments, by inherently accounting for various instrumental factors. To further extend the EOS SO 2 CDR, we are implementing the PCA SO 2 retrieval algorithm with the L1B measurements from OMPS instruments flying on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) constellation. In this presentation, we will provide an update on our progress in NOAA-20 (launched in 2017) and NOAA-21 (launched in 2022) PCA SO2 retrievals. We will focus on our new NOAA-20/OMPS PCA SO 2 EOS continuity product, to be publicly released in fall of 2023. We will present statistical analyses on the quality of NOAA-20 PCA SO 2 product, including retrieval noise, biases over background areas, and long-term stability. We will compare our PCA SO 2 retrievals from NOAA-20 with those from OMI, SNPP/OMPS, and S5P/TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) for anthropogenic sources as well as large volcanic plumes. We will also discuss the application of a new machine learning technique that helps to further reduce the noise of NOAA-20 SO 2 retrievals. In addition, we will present preliminary PCA SO 2 retrievals from NOAA-21/OMPS, including those from direct readout implementation for aviation disaster avoidance. Finally, we will share some first results applying the PCA algorithm to NASA’s geostationary TEMPO (Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution) instrument to obtain hourly, high resolution SO 2 data over North America.

SO2↗

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗

Development of a Ground Test and Analysis Protocol for NASA's NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts

The NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program is a public-private partnership model that seeks commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities to support human spaceflight missions around and beyond cislunar space. NASA first issued the Phase 1 NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement to U.S. industries in 2014, which called for innovative cislunar habitation concepts that leveraged commercialization plans for low-Earth orbit. These habitats will be part of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG), the cislunar space station planned by NASA for construction in the 2020s. In 2016, Phase 2 of the NextSTEP program selected five commercial partners to develop ground prototypes. A team of NASA research engineers and subject matter experts (SMEs) have been tasked with developing the ground-test protocol that will serve as the primary means by which these Phase 2 prototypes will be evaluated. Since 2008, this core test team has successfully conducted multiple spaceflight analog mission evaluations utilizing a consistent set of operational tools, methods, and metrics to enable the iterative development, testing, analysis, and validation of evolving exploration architectures, operations concepts, and vehicle designs. The purpose of implementing a similar evaluation process for the Phase 2 Habitation Concepts is to consistently evaluate different commercial partner ground prototypes to provide data-driven, actionable recommendations for Phase 3. This paper describes the process by which the ground test protocol was developed and the objectives, methods, and metrics by which the NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts will be rigorously and systematically evaluated. The protocol has been developed using both a top-down and bottom-up approach. Top-down development began with the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) exploration objectives and ISS Exploration Capability Study Team (IECST) candidate flight objectives. Strategic questions and associated rationales, derived from these candidate architectural objectives, provide the framework by which the ground-test protocol will address the DSG stack elements and configurations, systems and subsystems, and habitation, science, and EVA functions. From these strategic questions, high-level functional requirements for the DSG were drafted and associated ground-test objectives and analysis protocols were established. Bottom-up development incorporated objectives from NASA SMEs in autonomy, avionics and software, communication, environmental control and life support systems, exercise, extravehicular activity, exploration medical operations, guidance navigation and control, human factors and behavioral performance, human factors and habitability, logistics, Mission Control Center operations, power, radiation, robotics, safety and mission assurance, science, simulation, structures, thermal, trash management, and vehicle health. Top-down and bottom-up objectives were integrated to form overall functional requirements - ground-test objectives and analysis mapping. From this mapping, ground-test objectives were organized into those that will be evaluated through inspection, demonstration, analysis, subsystem standalone testing, and human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing. For the HITL tests, mission-like timelines, procedures, and flight rules have been developed to directly meet ground test objectives and evaluate specific functional requirements. Data collected from these assessments will be analyzed to determine the acceptability of habitation element configurations and the combinations of capabilities that will result in the best habitation platform to be recommended by the test team for Phase 3.

Gernhardt, Michael L.↗