Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Decadal prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

A search for the radio counterpart to the 1994 March 1 gamma-ray burst

We report on the results of a search for the radio counterpart to the bright gamma-ray burst of 1994 March 1. Using the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory Synthesis Telescope sensitive, wide-field radio images at 1.4 GHz and 0.4 GHz were made of a region around GRB 940301. A total of 15 separate radio images were obtained at each frequency, sampling a near-continuous range of post-burst timescales between 3 and 15 days, as well as 26, 47, and 99 days. We place an upper limit of 3.5 mJy on a fading/flaring radio counterpart at 1.4 GHz and 55 mJy at 0.4 GHz. Unlike past efforts our counterpart search maintains high sensitivity over two decades of post-burst time durations. Time-variable radio emission after the initial gamma-ray burst is a prediction of all fireball models, currently the most popular model for gamma-ray bursts. Our observations allow us to put significant constraints on the fireball parameters for cosmological models of gamma-ray bursts.

Frail, D. A.↗

Flight Acoustics Measurement Techniques and Applications

Careful consideration must be given to data acquisition and analysis techniques in the design of experiments for the measurement of noise generated by flight vehicles. Although noise measurement locations and data reduction procedures are specified for aircraft certification by FAA and ICAO directives, for example, there are virtually no established procedures for aircraft noise measurement for other purposes. To optimize the quality and quantity of information obtained in a flight acoustics experiment, microphone layout, data acquisition, and analysis must be tailored to the specific test objective. This paper will review flight acoustics technology at NASA Langley Research Center developed over the past decade. In particular, the paper will focus on flight experiments performed for three diverse objectives: (1) research applications, such as noise prediction code validation, (2) noise impact modeling, and (3) noise abatement flight procedures. To best achieve these diverse objectives, different deployments of microphone systems on the ground are required, and different data analysis techniques are needed. In all cases, accurate positioning of the aircraft synchronized in time with the data recording is necessary. However, there are some restrictions on flight operations unique to each case for the methods to properly work.

Preisser, J. S.↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: A Measurement of the Primordial Power Spectrum

We present constraints on the primordial power spectrum of adiabatic fluctuations using data from the 2008 Southern Survey of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). The angular resolution of ACT provides sensitivity to scales beyond l = 1000 for resolution of multiple peaks in the primordial temperature power spectrum, which enables us to probe the primordial power spectrum of adiabatic scalar perturbations with wavenumbers up to k approx. = 0.2 Mp/c. We find no evidence for deviation from power-law fluctuations over two decades in scale. Matter fluctuations inferred from the primordial temperature power spectrum evolve over cosmic time and can be used to predict the matter power spectrum at late times; we illustrate the overlap of the matter power inferred from CMB measurements (which probe the power spectrum in thc linear regime) with existing probes of galaxy clustering, cluster abundances and weak lensing constraints on the primordial power. This highlights the range of scales probed by current measurement.s of the matter power spectrum.

Hlozek, Renee↗

20 years of Tm:Ho:YLF and LuLF Laser Development for Global Winds Measurements

NASA Langley Research Center has a long history of developing 2 micron lasers. From fundamental spectroscopy research, theoretical prediction of new materials, laser demonstration and engineering of lidar systems, it has been a very successful program spanning around two decades. This article covers the program development from the early research to the present instrumentation. A brief historical perspective of Tm:Ho work by early researchers is also given.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

Advances in High Energy Solid-State Pulsed 2-Micron Lidar Development for Ground and Airborne Wind, Water Vapor and CO2 Measurements

NASA Langley Research Center has a long history of developing 2-micron lasers. From fundamental spectroscopy research, theoretical prediction of new materials, laser demonstration and engineering of lidar systems, it has been a very successful program spanning around two decades. Successful development of 2-micron lasers has led to development of a state-of-the-art compact lidar transceiver for a pulsed coherent Doppler lidar system for wind measurement with an unprecedented laser pulse energy of 250 millijoules in a rugged package. This high pulse energy is produced by a Ho:Tm:LuLiF laser with an optical amplifier. While the lidar is meant for use as an airborne instrument, ground-based tests were carried out to characterize performance of the lidar. Atmospheric measurements will be presented, showing the lidar's capability for wind measurement in the atmospheric boundary layer and free troposphere. Lidar wind measurements are compared to a balloon sonde, showing good agreement between the two sensors. Similar architecture has been used to develop a high energy, Ho:Tm:YLF double-pulsed 2-micron Integrated Differential Absorption Lidar (IPDA) instrument based on direct detection technique that provides atmospheric column CO2 measurements. This instrument has been successfully used to measure atmospheric CO2 column density initially from a ground mobile lidar trailer, and then it was integrated on B-200 plane and 20 hours of flight measurement were made from an altitude ranging 1500 meters to 8000 meters. These measurements were compared to in-situ measurements and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) airborne flask measurement to derive the dry mixing ratio of the column CO2 by reflecting the signal by various reflecting surfaces such as land, vegetation, ocean surface, snow and sand. The lidar measurements when compared showed a very agreement with in-situ and airborne flask measurement. NASA Langley Research Center is currently developing a triple-pulsed 2-micron Integrated Differential Absorption Lidar (IPDA) instrument for simultaneous measurement of water vapor and carbon-dioxide column density measurement from an air-borne platform. This presentation will give an overview of the 2 decades of 2-micron coherent and direction detection of laser/lidar development at NASA Langley Research Center and will present the ground and airborne wind and column CO2 measurement intercomparison with in-situ, balloon and flask measurements.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

K2 Precision Lightcurve: Twelve Days in the Pluto-Charon System

The Kepler spacecraft's imaging photometer monitored the Pluto system from October-December 2015 during Campaign 7 of the K2 extended mission. Kepler obtained an unprecedented and fortuitous nearly continuous 12-Pluto day lightcurve from measurements acquired every 30 min using long cadence sampling. This 3-month-long baseline anchors the Pluto+Charon lightcurve near the time of the New Horizons July 2015 encounter, observing at solar phase angles between 1.16° and 1.74°. Long-term modeling of Pluto's lightcurve will ultimately reveal its long-term seasonal variation. K2's combined Pluto+Charon lightcurves measured at this epoch have an average total amplitude of 0.120+/- 0.006, 0.07 magnitudes smaller than the amplitude predicted by a static frost model (Buie and Tholen, 1989) projected from Hubble Space Telescope surface maps (Buie et al., 1992). Subtracting a static Charon lightcurve from the Pluto+Charon K2 lightcurve produces the same results. Likewise, we subtract each rotation model from the model for the first full rotation and find that the average difference of all variations is 0.017 +/- 0.008 magnitudes. Moreover, the difference between the first and last K2 rotation is 0.005 magnitudes, implying that there are no significant changes in the lightcurve during the 3 months of K2 observations. These results are consistent with seasonal transport on Pluto's surface and the predictions of Buratti et al. (2015a). However, a detailed understanding of the surface-atmosphere interactions associated with these phenomena requires decades of monitoring.

Benecchi, S. D.↗

Thermal Protection System Materials for Sample Return Missions

This white paper from the Thermal Protection System (TPS) community to the NRC Decadal Survey Sub-Panels provides an overview of TPS materials needed for future Sample Return (SR) missions. We consider the capability of heritage TPS material used by recent SR missions and identify appropriate materials for future SR missions. A prime conclusion is that the current TPS materials, if properly maintained, offer good low-density solutions for lower velocity (<13.5 km/s) sample return missions without planetary protection back-protection concerns. Furthermore, missions that have a larger capsule, a higher entry speed (>13.5 km/s), or back-protection concerns will leverage recently developed mid-density TPS materials. To maintain NASA’s Sample Return capabilities in the coming decade, we recommend that NASA continue to invest in sustainment of relevant TPS materials, as well as ground-test facilities, predictive entry modeling, and flight instrumentation.

mission design↗

Interrogating Solar Flare Loop Models with IRIS Observations 2: Plasma Properties, Energy Transport, and Future Directions

During solar flares a tremendous amount of magnetic energy is released and transported through the Sun’s atmosphere and out into the heliosphere. Despite over a century of study, many unresolved questions surrounding solar flares are still present. Among those are how does the solar plasma respond to flare energy deposition, and what are the important physical processes that transport that energy from the release site in the corona through the transition region and chromosphere? Attacking these questions requires the concert of advanced numerical simulations and high spatial-, temporal-, and spectral-resolution observations. While flares are 3D phenomenon, simulating the NLTE flaring chromosphere in 3D and performing parameter studies of 3D models is largely outwith our current computational capabilities. We instead rely on state-of-the-art 1D field-aligned simulations to study the physical processes that govern flares. Over the last decade, data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) have provided the crucial observations with which we can critically interrogate the predictions of those flare loop models. Here in Paper 2 of a two-part review of IRIS and flare loop models, I discuss how forward modelling flares can help us understand the observations from IRIS, and how IRIS can reveal where our models do well and where we are likely missing important processes, focussing in particular on the plasma properties, energy transport mechanisms, and future directions of flare modelling.

solar flares↗

Remote sensing techniques for prediction of watershed runoff

Hydrologic parameters of watersheds for use in mathematical models and as design criteria for flood detention structures are sometimes difficult to quantify using conventional measuring systems. The advent of remote sensing devices developed in the past decade offers the possibility that watershed characteristics such as vegetative cover, soils, soil moisture, etc., may be quantified rapidly and economically. Experiments with visible and near infrared data from the LANDSAT-1 multispectral scanner indicate a simple technique for calibration of runoff equation coefficients is feasible. The technique was tested on 10 watersheds in the Chickasha area and test results show more accurate runoff coefficients were obtained than with conventional methods. The technique worked equally as well using a dry fall scene. The runoff equation coefficients were then predicted for 22 subwatersheds with flood detention structures. Predicted values were again more accurate than coefficients produced by conventional methods.

Blanchard, B. J.↗

Constraining Gamma-Ray Pulsar Gap Models with a Simulated Pulsar Population

With the large sample of young gamma-ray pulsars discovered by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT), population synthesis has become a powerful tool for comparing their collective properties with model predictions. We synthesised a pulsar population based on a radio emission model and four gamma-ray gap models (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One Pole Caustic). Applying gamma-ray and radio visibility criteria, we normalise the simulation to the number of detected radio pulsars by a select group of ten radio surveys. The luminosity and the wide beams from the outer gaps can easily account for the number of Fermi detections in 2 years of observations. The wide slot-gap beam requires an increase by a factor of 10 of the predicted luminosity to produce a reasonable number of gamma-ray pulsars. Such large increases in the luminosity may be accommodated by implementing offset polar caps. The narrow polar-cap beams contribute at most only a handful of LAT pulsars. Using standard distributions in birth location and pulsar spin-down power (E), we skew the initial magnetic field and period distributions in a an attempt to account for the high E Fermi pulsars. While we compromise the agreement between simulated and detected distributions of radio pulsars, the simulations fail to reproduce the LAT findings: all models under-predict the number of LAT pulsars with high E , and they cannot explain the high probability of detecting both the radio and gamma-ray beams at high E. The beaming factor remains close to 1.0 over 4 decades in E evolution for the slot gap whereas it significantly decreases with increasing age for the outer gaps. The evolution of the enhanced slot-gap luminosity with E is compatible with the large dispersion of gamma-ray luminosity seen in the LAT data. The stronger evolution predicted for the outer gap, which is linked to the polar cap heating by the return current, is apparently not supported by the LAT data. The LAT sample of gamma-ray pulsars therefore provides a fresh perspective on the early evolution of the luminosity and beam width of the gamma-ray emission from young pulsars, calling for thin and more luminous gaps.

Pierbattista, Marco↗

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

The Final Merger of Black-Hole Binaries

Recent breakthroughs in the field of numerical relativity have led to dramatic progress in understanding the predictions of General Relativity for the dynamical interactions of two black holes in the regime of very strong gravitational fields. Such black-hole binaries are important astrophysical systems and are a key target of current and developing gravitational-wave detectors. The waveform signature of strong gravitational radiation emitted as the black holes fall together and merge provides a clear observable record of the process. After decades of slow progress / these mergers and the gravitational-wave signals they generate can now be routinely calculated using the methods of numerical relativity. We review recent advances in understanding the predicted physics of events and the consequent radiation, and discuss some of the impacts this new knowledge is having in various areas of astrophysics

Kelly, Bernard J.↗

Surface Salinity Variability in the North Atlantic During Recent Decades

The sea surface salinity (SSS) variability in the North Atlantic is investigated using numerical model simulations for the last 50 years based on atmospheric forcing variability from Comprehensive Atmosphere Ocean Data Set (COADS) and National Center for Environmental Prediction / National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) Reanalysis. The largest interannual and longer term variability occurs in two regions: the Labrador Sea and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) region. In both regions the seasonality of the surface salinity variability is prominent with the maximum standard deviation occurring in the summer/fall period. In the Labrador Sea the summer SSS anomalies far exceed those of wintertime in amplitude. The interannual SSS variability in the subpolar gyre can be attributed to two factors: excess ice melt and heat flux (i.e. deep mixing) variations. On the other hand, heat flux variability can also lead to meridional overturning changes on decadal time scales such that weak overturning is manifested in fresh surface conditions in the subpolar gyre. The overturning changes also influence the NECC region SSS variability. Moreover, the subpolar freshening events are expected to occur during the negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation which is associated with a weak wintertime surface heat loss in the subpolar gyre. No excess sea ice melt or precipitation is necessary for the formation of the fresh anomalies, because with the lack of wide-spread deep mixing, the fresh water that would be expected based on climatology, would accumulate at the surface. Thus, the fresh water 'conveyor' in the Atlantic operates via the overturning circulation such that deep mixing inserts fresh water while removing heat from the water column.

Haekkinen, Sirpa↗

Recent trends in ozone in the upper stratosphere: Implications for chlorine chemistry

We have studied the implications of recent trends in the annual mean and the amplitude of the annual harmonic of ozone in the upper stratosphere from the 15 years of the combined data from the Nimbus-7 SBUV and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 instruments. This was done in the context of the GSFC 2D model predictions of these trends which are based on plausible scenarios of anthropogenic Cly increase in the atmosphere. The comparison of the observed and model-estimated annual mean ozone trends show some similarity in their latitude and altitude characteristics. Both the model and data show a maximum ozone decrease of -6 to -10 % per decade at high latitudes in the upper stratosphere. However, there are also significant differences between the observed and computed trends which may be related to both the model uncertainty and the uncertainty in correcting for the long term instrument drift. The observations also suggest a decrease of 10-25 % per decade in the annual amplitude of ozone at 2 mb between 40 deg - 60 deg in both hemispheres, with a relatively larger interannual variability in the northern hemisphere. These values are in general agreement with the model predictions and thus provide additional support in favor of the chlorine induced changes in ozone in the upper stratosphere.

Chandra, Sushil↗

Simulation of Unique Pressure Changing Steps and Situations in Psa Processes

A more rigorous cyclic adsorption process simulator is being developed for use in the development and understanding of new and existing PSA processes. Unique features of this new version of the simulator that Ritter and co-workers have been developing for the past decade or so include: multiple absorbent layers in each bed, pressure drop in the column, valves for entering and exiting flows and predicting real-time pressurization and depressurization rates, ability to account for choked flow conditions, ability to pressurize and depressurize simultaneously from both ends of the columns, ability to equalize between multiple pairs of columns, ability to equalize simultaneously from both ends of pairs of columns, and ability to handle very large pressure ratios and hence velocities associated with deep vacuum systems. These changes to the simulator now provide for unique opportunities to study the effects of novel pressure changing steps and extreme process conditions on the performance of virtually any commercial or developmental PSA process. This presentation will provide an overview of the cyclic adsorption process simulator equations and algorithms used in the new adaptation. It will focus primarily on the novel pressure changing steps and their effects on the performance of a PSA system that epitomizes the extremes of PSA process design and operation. This PSA process is a sorbent-based atmosphere revitalization (SBAR) system that NASA is developing for new manned exploration vehicles. This SBAR system consists of a 2-bed 3-step 3-layer system that operates between atmospheric pressure and the vacuum of space, evacuates from both ends of the column simultaneously, experiences choked flow conditions during pressure changing steps, and experiences a continuously changing feed composition, as it removes metabolic CO2 and H20 from a closed and fixed volume, i.e., the spacecraft cabin. Important process performance indicators of this SBAR system are size, and the corresponding CO2 and H20 removal efficiencies, and N2 and O2 loss rates. Results of the fundamental behavior of this PSA process during extreme operating conditions will be presented and discussed.

Ebner, Armin D.↗

Review of the Theoretical and Experimental Status of Dark Matter Identification with Cosmic-Ray Antideuterons

Recent years have seen increased theoretical and experimental effort towards the first-ever detection of cosmic-ray antideuterons, in particular as an indirect signature of dark matter annihilation or decay. In contrast to indirect dark matter searches using positrons, antiprotons, or gamma-rays, which suffer from relatively high and uncertain astrophysical backgrounds, searches with antideuterons benefit from very suppressed conventional backgrounds, offering a potential breakthrough in unexplored phase space for dark matter. This article is based on the first dedicated cosmic-ray antideuteron workshop, which was held at UCLA in June 2014. It reviews broad classes of dark matter candidates that result in detectable cosmic-ray antideuteron fluxes, as well as the status and prospects of current experimental searches. The coalescence model of antideuteron production and the influence of antideuteron measurements at particle colliders are discussed. This is followed by a review of the modeling of antideuteron propagation through the magnetic fields, plasma currents, and molecular material of our Galaxy, the solar system, the Earth's geomagnetic field, and the atmosphere. Finally, the three ongoing or planned experiments that are sensitive to cosmic-ray antideuterons, BESS, AMS-02, and GAPS, are detailed. As cosmic-ray antideuteron detection is a rare event search, multiple experiments with orthogonal techniques and backgrounds are essential. Therefore, the combination of AMS-02 and GAPS antideuteron searches is highly desirable. Many theoretical and experimental groups have contributed to these studies over the last decade, this review aims to provide the first coherent discussion of the relevant dark matter theories that antideuterons probe, the challenges to predictions and interpretations of antideuteron signals, and the experimental efforts toward cosmic antideuteron detection.

Antideuteron Cosmic ray Dark matter↗

Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.

asteroid↗

Control of the NASA Langley 16-Foot Transonic Tunnel with the Self-Organizing Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed based on an ensemble of local linear models of the nonlinear system dynamics for a transonic wind tunnel. The local linear models are estimated directly from the weights of a self-organizing map (SOM). Multiple self-organizing maps collectively model the global response of the wind tunnel to a finite set of representative prototype controls. These prototype controls partition the control space and incorporate experiential knowledge gained from decades of operation. Each SOM models the combination of the tunnel with one of the representative controls, over the entire range of operation. The SOM based linear models are used to predict the tunnel response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal.

Mark A. Motter↗