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Ellicott City Disasters III: Building a Real-Time Statistical Flood Model for Improving Early Warning Systems in Ellicott City, Maryland

As flood events in the United States grow in frequency and intensity, the uses of applied remote sensing analyses are increasingly necessary for effective flood monitoring and warning systems. The NASA DEVELOP Ellicott City Disasters III project investigated the use of machine learning for applications in flood risk detection to support the improvement of early warning systems in Ellicott City, Maryland. To strengthen the efforts of the Howard County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in building a more robust flood monitoring system, this term built on the predictive capability of the long-short term memory (LSTM) model created by the second term of this DEVELOP project to create a Sequentially Trained Real-time EstimAted Model (STREAM). Enhancements to the model included the integration of both real-time and predicted weather products from the National Weather Service to increase predictive capacity. These weather products were supplemented by stream gauge data from the OEM as well as real-time radar products. The resultant flood risk model was trained to evaluate input variables and predict stage height in Ellicott City in real time. The model, upgraded to predict stage height up to 8 hours in advance, was incorporated into an online dashboard in a user-friendly interface. The project demonstrated the potential for integration of open data and NASA Earth observations into a flood risk forecasting tool capable of informing real-time decision-making.

Erika Munshi↗

Climate Extremes and Risks: Links Between Climate Science and Decision-Making

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts. The link between climate science and decision-making has strengthened in recent years, partly owing to undeniable impacts arising from disastrous weather extremes. Enhancing decision-relevant understanding involves utilizing lessons from past extreme events and implementing impact-based early warning systems to improve resilience. Integrated risk assessment and management require a comprehensive approach that encompasses good knowledge about possible impacts, hazard identification, monitoring, and communication of risks while acknowledging uncertainties inherent in climate predictions and projections, but not letting the uncertainty lead to decision paralysis. The importance of data accessibility, especially in the Global South, underscores the need for better coordination and resource allocation. Strategic frameworks should aim to enhance impact-related and open-access climate services around the world. Continuous improvements in predictive modeling and observational data are critical, as is ensuring that climate science remains relevant to decision makers locally and globally. Ultimately, fostering stronger collaborations and dedicated investments to process and tailor climate data will enhance societal preparedness, enabling communities to navigate the complexities of a changing climate effectively.

climate extremes↗

Software Defined Radio Architecture Contributions to Next Generation Space Communications

Space communications architecture concepts, comprising the elements of the system, the interactions among them, and the principles that govern their development, are essential factors in developing National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) future exploration and science missions. Accordingly, vital architectural attributes encompass flexibility, the extensibility to insert future capabilities, and to enable evolution to provide interoperability with other current and future systems. Space communications architectures and technologies for this century must satisfy a growing set of requirements, including those for Earth sensing, collaborative observation missions, robotic scientific missions, human missions for exploration of the Moon and Mars where surface activities require supporting communications, and in-space observatories for observing the earth, as well as other star systems and the universe. An advanced, integrated, communications infrastructure will enable the reliable, multipoint, high-data-rate capabilities needed on demand to provide continuous, maximum coverage for areas of concentrated activity. Importantly, the cost/value proposition of the future architecture must be an integral part of its design; an affordable and sustainable architecture is indispensable within anticipated future budget environments. Effective architecture design informs decision makers with insight into the capabilities needed to efficiently satisfy the demanding space-communication requirements of future missions and formulate appropriate requirements. A driving requirement for the architecture is the extensibility to address new requirements and provide low-cost on-ramps for new capabilities insertion, ensuring graceful growth as new functionality and new technologies are infused into the network infrastructure. In addition to extensibility, another key architectural attribute of the space communication equipment's interoperability with other NASA communications systems, as well as those communications and navigation systems operated by international space agencies and civilian and government agencies. In this paper, we review the philosophies, technologies, architectural attributes, mission services, and communications capabilities that form the structure of candidate next-generation integrated communication architectures for space communications and navigation. A key area that this paper explores is from the development and operation of the software defined radio for the NASA Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed currently on the International Space Station (ISS). Evaluating the lessons learned from development and operation feed back into the communications architecture. Leveraging the reconfigurability provides a change in the way that operations are done and must be considered. Quantifying the impact on the NASA Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) software defined radio architecture provides feedback to keep the standard useful and up to date. NASA is not the only customer of these radios. Software defined radios are developed for other applications, and taking advantage of these developments promotes an architecture that is cost effective and sustainable. Developments in the following areas such as an updated operating environment, higher data rates, networking and security can be leveraged. The ability to sustain an architecture that uses radios for multiple markets can lower costs and keep new technology infused.

Lessons Learned↗

Science and Technology (S and T) Roadmap Collaboration between SMC, NASA, and Government Partners

National Security Space (NSS) presents multi-faceted S and T challenges. We must continually innovate enterprise and information management; provide decision support; develop advanced materials; enhance sensor technology; transform communication technology; develop advanced propulsion and resilient space architectures and capabilities; and enhance multiple additional S and T domains. These challenges are best met by leveraging advanced S and T research and technology development from a number of DoD agencies and civil agencies such as NASA. The authors of this paper have engaged in these activities since 2006 and over the past decade developed multiple strategic S and T relationships. This paper highlights the Office of the Space Missile Systems Center (SMC) Chief Scientist (SMC/ST) collaboration with the NASA Office of Chief Technologist (NASA OCT), which has multiple S and T activities that are relevant to NSS. In particular we discuss the development of the Technology Roadmaps that benefit both Civil Space and NSS. Our collaboration with NASA OCT has been of mutual benefit to multiple participants. Some of the other DoD components include the Defense Advanced Research Projects agency (DARPA), Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Naval Research Laboratory (NRL), The USAF Office of Chief Scientist, the USAF Science Advisory Board (SAB), Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR), and a number of other services and agencies. In addition, the human talent is a key enabler of advanced S and T activities; it is absolutely critical to have a strong supply of talent in the fields of Science Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Consequently, we continually collaborate with the USAF Institute of Technology (AFIT), other service academies and graduate schools, and other universities and colleges. This paper highlights the benefits that result from such strategic S and T partnerships and recommends a way forward that will continually build upon these achievements into the future.

Science Technology Collaboration↗

Astronomical Software Directory Service

With the support of NASA's Astrophysics Data Program (NRA 92-OSSA-15), we have developed the Astronomical Software Directory Service (ASDS): a distributed, searchable, WWW-based database of software packages and their related documentation. ASDS provides integrated access to 56 astronomical software packages, with more than 16,000 URLs indexed for full-text searching. Users are performing about 400 searches per month. A new aspect of our service is the inclusion of telescope and instrumentation manuals, which prompted us to change the name to the Astronomical Software and Documentation Service. ASDS was originally conceived to serve two purposes: to provide a useful Internet service in an area of expertise of the investigators (astronomical software), and as a research project to investigate various architectures for searching through a set of documents distributed across the Internet. Two of the co-investigators were then installing and maintaining astronomical software as their primary job responsibility. We felt that a service which incorporated our experience in this area would be more useful than a straightforward listing of software packages. The original concept was for a service based on the client/server model, which would function as a directory/referral service rather than as an archive. For performing the searches, we began our investigation with a decision to evaluate the Isite software from the Center for Networked Information Discovery and Retrieval (CNIDR). This software was intended as a replacement for Wide-Area Information Service (WAIS), a client/server technology for performing full-text searches through a set of documents. Isite had some additional features that we considered attractive, and we enjoyed the cooperation of the Isite developers, who were happy to have ASDS as a demonstration project. We ended up staying with the software throughout the project, making modifications to take advantage of new features as they came along, as well as influencing the software development. The Web interface to the search engine is provided by a gateway program written in C++ by a consultant to the project (A. Warnock).

Hanisch, Robert J.↗

Study and Simulation of Enhancements for TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) Performance Over Noisy, High-Latency Links

The designers of the TCP/IP protocol suite explicitly included support of satellites in their design goals. The goal of the Internet Project was to design a protocol which could be layered over different networking technologies to allow them to be concatenated into an internet. The results of this project included two protocols, IP and TCP. IP is the protocol used by all elements in the network and it defines the standard packet format for IP datagrams. TCP is the end-to-end transport protocol commonly used between end systems on the Internet to derive a reliable bi-directional byte-pipe service from the underlying unreliable IP datagram service. Satellite links are explicitly mentioned in Vint Cerf's 2-page article which appeared in 1980 in CCR [2] to introduce the specifications for IP and TCP. In the past fifteen years, TCP has been demonstrated to work over many differing networking technologies, including over paths including satellites links. So if satellite links were in the minds of the designers from the beginning, what is the problem? The problem is that the performance of TCP has in some cases been disappointing. A goal of the authors of the original specification of TCP was to specify only enough behavior to ensure interoperability. The specification left a number of important decisions, in particular how much data is to be sent when, to the implementor. This was deliberately' done. By leaving performance-related decisions to the implementor, this would allow the protocol TCP to be tuned and adapted to different networks and situations in the future without the need to revise the specification of the protocol, or break interoperability. Interoperability would continue while future implementations would be allowed flexibility to adapt to needs which could not be anticipated at the time of the original protocol design.

Shepard, Timothy J.↗

Jefferson County Ecological Conservation: Quantifying the Effects of Hydrologic Restoration in the Camas National Wildlife Refuge and Mud Lake Wildlife Management Area

Wetlands in the Camas National Wildlife Refuge and Mud Lake Wildlife Management Area, a rare landscape feature in the Intermountain West, are crucial for migratory birds along the Pacific Flyway, yet these wetlands have experienced a noticeable decline in extent and inundation over the last 40+ years. Partners at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and Idaho Department of Fish and Game have ongoing restoration efforts that are yet to be quantified. To assist these partners, we used NASA Earth observations to quantify change in wetland extent and determine if the restoration projects met the intended impact. The QA_PIXEL band from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) was used to identify water. Landsat 8 OLI imagery was also used for classifying landcover in ArcGIS Pro for 2016 and 2020 and to forecast landcover in 2060 using TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler. We also compared lidar data from 2011 and 2019 to detect changes in vegetation height, ground elevation, and surface water levels, and Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery to detect changes in vegetation health. Classification results indicated overall accuracies over 84% and Kappa indices above 0.80, well surpassing random classification performance. From 2016 to 2020 our classifications showed an 825 acre increase in wetland extent, and our forecasted 2060 model showed a 2795 acre decrease. Combining our partners’ knowledge of the area with our analyses, we created a remote sensing workflow to enhance future monitoring and decision-making. This study demonstrated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations in quantifying wetlands, informing restoration projects, and supporting avian conservation.

Cassidy Bromka↗

Principles to Products: Toward Realizing MOS 2.0

This is a report on the Operations Revitalization Initiative, part of the ongoing NASA-funded Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) program. We are implementing products that significantly improve efficiency and effectiveness of Mission Operations Systems (MOS) for deep-space missions. We take a multi-mission approach, in keeping with our organization's charter to "provide multi-mission tools and services that enable mission customers to operate at a lower total cost to NASA." Focusing first on architectural fundamentals of the MOS, we review the effort's progress. In particular, we note the use of stakeholder interactions and consideration of past lessons learned to motivate a set of Principles that guide the evolution of the AMMOS. Thus guided, we have created essential patterns and connections (detailed in companion papers) that are explicitly modeled and support elaboration at multiple levels of detail (system, sub-system, element...) throughout a MOS. This architecture is realized in design and implementation products that provide lifecycle support to a Mission at the system and subsystem level. The products include adaptable multi-mission engineering documentation that describes essentials such as operational concepts and scenarios, requirements, interfaces and agreements, information models, and mission operations processes. Because we have adopted a model-based system engineering method, these documents and their contents are meaningfully related to one another and to the system model. This means they are both more rigorous and reusable (from mission to mission) than standard system engineering products. The use of models also enables detailed, early (e.g., formulation phase) insight into the impact of changes (e.g., to interfaces or to software) that is rigorous and complete, allowing better decisions on cost or technical trades. Finally, our work provides clear and rigorous specification of operations needs to software developers, further enabling significant gains in productivity.

AMMOS↗

Reducing Barriers in Space Weather Research and Operations with Next-Generation Simulation Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

Space weather forecasting capabilities are becoming increasingly important to the health of advanced technological infrastructure. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a key liaison in the US space weather program between the research and operations communities by providing a wide range of tools and capabilities that help to evaluate, compare, exercise, and archive the results of simulations of a growing list of space weather models. With its unique toolset, CCMC supports space weather research and model development that advances our understanding of space weather phenomena and improves forecasting skill, while also facilitating development of space weather applications and deployment of operational capabilities. Guided by experience from over 20 years of providing simulation services, feedback from its research, operational and educational users world-wide, recommendations from CCMC Advisory Group and Programmatic Review Panel, the CCMC has begun work on the next generation system for its simulation services and model output archives. The new system has been envisioned to employ state-of-the-art technologies and standards to provide a user-oriented experience while improving ease of access, transparency, interoperability with partner systems, and enhancing reliability by incorporating advanced automation for performance monitoring and intelligent failover. In the presentation, we will give an overview of the current CCMC ecosystem and discuss updates to some of the key services of the system, including Runs-on-Request, Instant Runs, and Continuous Runs. We will also describe how a planned expansion and standardization of data archival activities will enhance the role of CCMC as a world-class provider of heliophysics information for the research and analysis of space weather. It is our hope that this evolution of the services can further reduce the barriers and burdens on researchers, forecasters and decision makers who rely on CCMC for their daily research and operations.

Space Weather↗

Past and Future Operations Concepts of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System

NASA committed to support the collection and distribution of Earth science data to study global change in the 1990's. A series of Earth science remote sensing satellites, the Earth Observing System (EOS), was to be the centerpiece. The concept for the science data system, the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), created new challenges in the data processing of multiple satellite instrument observations for climate research and in the distribution of global-coverage remote sensor products to a large and growing science research community. EOSDIS was conceived to facilitate easy access to EOS science data for a wide heterogeneous national and international community of users. EOSDIS was to provide a spectrum of services designed for research scientists working on NASA focus areas but open to the general public and international science community. EOSDIS would give researchers tools and assistance in searching, selecting and acquiring data, allowing them to focus on Earth science climate research rather than complex product generation. Goals were to promote exchange of data and research results and expedite development of new geophysical algorithms. The system architecture had to accommodate a diversity of data types, data acquisition and product generation operations, data access requirements and different centers of science discipline expertise. Steps were taken early to make EOSDIS flexible by distributing responsibility for basic services. Many of the system operations concept decisions made in the 90s continued to this day. Once implemented, concepts such as the EOSDIS data model played a critical role developing effective data services, now a hallmark of EOSDIS. In other cases, EOSDIS architecture has evolved to enable more efficient operations, taking advantage of new technology and thereby shifting more resources on data services and less on operating and maintaining infrastructure. In looking to the future, EOSDIS may be able to take advantage of commercial compute environments for infrastructure and further enable large scale climate research. In this presentation, we will discuss key EOSDIS operations concepts from the 1990's, how they were implemented and evolved in the architecture, and look at concepts and architectural challenges for EOSDIS operations utilizing commercial cloud services.

Moses, John F.↗

Hubble Space Telescope Crew Rescue Analysis

In the aftermath of the 2003 Columbia accident, NASA removed the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Servicing Mission 4 (SM4) from the Space Shuttle manifest. Reasons cited included concerns that the risk of flying the mission would be too high. The HST SM4 was subsequently reinstated and flown as Space Transportation System (STS)-125 because of improvements in the ascent debris environment, the development of techniques for astronauts to perform on orbit repairs to damaged thermal protection, and the development of a strategy to provide a viable crew rescue capability. However, leading up to the launch of STS-125, the viability of the HST crew rescue capability was a recurring topic. For STS-125, there was a limited amount of time available to perform a crew rescue due to limited consumables (power, oxygen, etc.) available on the Orbiter. The success of crew rescue depended upon several factors, including when a problem was identified; when and what actions, such as powering down, were begun to conserve consumables; and where the Launch on Need (LON) vehicle was in its ground processing cycle. Crew rescue success also needed to be weighed against preserving the Orbiter s ability to have a landing option in case there was a problem with the LON vehicle. This paper focuses on quantifying the HST mission loss of crew rescue capability using Shuttle historical data and various power down strategies. Results from this effort supported NASA s decision to proceed with STS-125, which was successfully completed on May 24th 2009.

Hamlin, Teri L.↗

ISAIA: Interoperable Systems for Archival Information Access

The ISAIA project was originally proposed in 1999 as a successor to the informal AstroBrowse project. AstroBrowse, which provided a data location service for astronomical archives and catalogs, was a first step toward data system integration and interoperability. The goals of ISAIA were ambitious: '...To develop an interdisciplinary data location and integration service for space science. Building upon existing data services and communications protocols, this service will allow users to transparently query hundreds or thousands of WWW-based resources (catalogs, data, computational resources, bibliographic references, etc.) from a single interface. The service will collect responses from various resources and integrate them in a seamless fashion for display and manipulation by the user.' Funding was approved only for a one-year pilot study, a decision that in retrospect was wise given the rapid changes in information technology in the past few years and the emergence of the Virtual Observatory initiatives in the US and worldwide. Indeed, the ISAIA pilot study was influential in shaping the science goals, system design, metadata standards, and technology choices for the virtual observatory. The ISAIA pilot project also helped to cement working relationships among the NASA data centers, US ground-based observatories, and international data centers. The ISAIA project was formed as a collaborative effort between thirteen institutions that provided data to astronomers, space physicists, and planetary scientists. Among the fruits we ultimately hoped would come from this project would be a central site on the Web that any space scientist could use to efficiently locate existing data relevant to a particular scientific question. Furthermore, we hoped that the needed technology would be general enough to allow smaller, more-focused community within space science could use the same technologies and standards to provide more specialized services. A major challenge to searching for data across a broad community is that information that describe some data products are either not relevant to other data or not applicable in the same way. Some previous metadata standard development efforts (e.g., in the earth science and library communities) have produced standards that are very large and difficult to support. To address this problem, we studied how a standard may be divided into separable pieces. Data providers that wish to participate in interoperable searches can support only those parts of the standard that are relevant to them. We prototyped a top-level metadata standard that was small and applicable to all space science data.

Hanisch, Robert J.↗

A Landsat-Based Assessment of Mobile Bay Land Use and Land Cover Change from 1974 to 2008

The Mobile Bay region has experienced noteworthy land use and land cover (LULC) change in the latter half of the 20th century. Accompanying this change has been urban expansion and a reduction of rural land uses. Much of this LULC change has reportedly occurred since the landfall of Hurricane Frederic in 1979. The Mobile Bay region provides great economic and ecologic benefits to the Nation, including important coastal habitat for a broad diversity of fisheries and wildlife. Regional urbanization threatens the estuary s water quality and aquatic-habitat dependent biota, including commercial fisheries and avian wildlife. Coastal conservation and urban land use planners require additional information on historical LULC change to support coastal habitat restoration and resiliency management efforts. This presentation discusses results of a Gulf of Mexico Application Pilot project that was conducted in 2008 to quantify and assess LULC change from 1974 to 2008. This project was led by NASA Stennis Space Center and involved multiple Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) partners, including the Mobile Bay National Estuary Program (NEP), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA s) National Coastal Data Development Center (NCDDC), and the NOAA Coastal Services Center. Nine Landsat images were employed to compute LULC products because of their availability and suitability for the application. The project also used Landsat-based national LULC products, including coastal LULC products from NOAA s Coastal Change & Analysis Program (C-CAP), available at 5-year intervals since 1995. Our study was initiated in part because C-CAP LULC products were not available to assess the region s urbanization prior to 1995 and subsequent to post Hurricane Katrina in 2006. This project assessed LULC change across the 34-year time frame and at decadal and middecadal scales. The study area included the majority of Mobile and Baldwin counties that encompass Mobile Bay. In doing so, each date of Landsat data was classified using an end-user defined modified Anderson level 1 classification scheme. LULC classifications were refined using a decision rule approach in conjunction with available C-CAP products. Individual dates of LULC classifications were validated by image interpretation of stratified random locations on raw Landsat color composite imagery in combination with higher resolution remote sensing and in-situ reference data. The results indicate that during the 34-year study period, urban areas increased from 96,688 to 150,227 acres, representing a 55.37% increase, or 1.63% per annum. Most of the identified urban expansion results from conversion of rural forest and agriculture to urban cover types. Final LULC mapping and metadata products were produced for the entire study area as well as watersheds of concern within the study area. Final project products, including LULC trend information, were incorporated into the Mobile Bay NEP State of the Bay report. Products and metadata were transferred to NOAA NCDDC to allow free online accessibility and use by GOMA partners and by the public.

Spruce, Joseph↗

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS): An iRODS-Based, Cloud-Enabled Decision Support System for Invasive Species Habitat Suitability Modeling

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) is an online decision support system that allows users to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of interest, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. Target customers for ISFS are natural resource managers and decision makers who have a need for scientifically valid, model- based predictions of the habitat suitability of plant species of management concern. In a joint project involving NASA and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, ISFS has been used to model the potential distribution of Wavyleaf Basketgrass in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Maximum entropy techniques are used to generate predictive maps using predictor datasets derived from remotely sensed data and climate simulation outputs. The workflow to run a model is implemented in an iRODS microservice using a custom ISFS file driver that clips and re-projects data to geographic regions of interest, then shells out to perform MaxEnt processing on the input data. When the model completes, all output files and maps from the model run are registered in iRODS and made accessible to the user. The ISFS user interface is a web browser that uses the iRODS PHP client to interact with the ISFS/iRODS- server. ISFS is designed to reside in a VMware virtual machine running SLES 11 and iRODS 3.0. The ISFS virtual machine is hosted in a VMware vSphere private cloud infrastructure to deliver the online service.

Gill, Roger↗

Workstation-Based Real-Time Mesoscale Modeling Designed for Weather Support to Operations at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

This paper describes the capabilities and operational utility of a version of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS) that has been developed to support operational weather forecasting at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS). The implementation of local, mesoscale modeling systems at KSC/CCAS is designed to provide detailed short-range (less than 24 h) forecasts of winds, clouds, and hazardous weather such as thunderstorms. Short-range forecasting is a challenge for daily operations, and manned and unmanned launches since KSC/CCAS is located in central Florida where the weather during the warm season is dominated by mesoscale circulations like the sea breeze. For this application, MASS has been modified to run on a Stardent 3000 workstation. Workstation-based, real-time numerical modeling requires a compromise between the requirement to run the system fast enough so that the output can be used before expiration balanced against the desire to improve the simulations by increasing resolution and using more detailed physical parameterizations. It is now feasible to run high-resolution mesoscale models such as MASS on local workstations to provide timely forecasts at a fraction of the cost required to run these models on mainframe supercomputers. MASS has been running in the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) at KSC/CCAS since January 1994 for the purpose of system evaluation. In March 1995, the AMU began sending real-time MASS output to the forecasters and meteorologists at CCAS, Spaceflight Meteorology Group (Johnson Space Center, Houston, Texas), and the National Weather Service (Melbourne, Florida). However, MASS is not yet an operational system. The final decision whether to transition MASS for operational use will depend on a combination of forecaster feedback, the AMU's final evaluation results, and the life-cycle costs of the operational system.

Manobianco, John↗

Mangrove Carbon Stocks in Pongara National Park, Gabon

Mangroves are recognized for their valued ecosystem services to coastal areas, and the functional linkages between those services and ecosystem carbon stocks have been established. However, spatially explicit inventories are necessary to facilitate management and protection of mangroves, as well as providing a foundation for payment for ecosystem service programs such as REDD+. We conducted an inventory of carbon stocks in mangroves within Pongara National Park (PNP), Gabon using a stratified random sampling design based on forest canopy height derived from TanDEM-X remote sensing data. Ecosystem carbon pools, including aboveground and belowground biomass and necromass, and soil carbon to a depth of 2 m were assessed using measurements and samples from plots distributed among three canopy height classes within the park. There were two mangrove species within the inventory area in PNP, Rhizophora racemosa and R. harrisonii. R. harrisonii was predominant in the sparse, low-stature stands that dominated the west side of the park. In the east side of the park, both species occurred in tall-stature stands, with tree height often exceeding 30 m. Canopy height was an effective means to stratify the inventory area, as biomass was significantly different among the height classes. Despite those differences in aboveground biomass, the soil carbon density was not significantly different among height classes. Soils were the main component of the ecosystem carbon stock, accounting for over 84% of the total. The ecosystem carbon density ranged from 644 to 943 Mg C ha−1 among the three height classes. The ecosystem carbon stock within PNP is estimated to be 40,588 Gg C. The combination of pre-inventory information about stand conditions and their spatial distribution within the assessment area obtained from remote sensing data and a spatial decision support system were fundamental to implementing this relatively large-scale field inventory. This work exemplifies how mangrove carbon stocks can be quantified to augment national C reporting statistics, provide a baseline for projects involving monitoring, reporting and verification (i.e., MRV), and provide data on the forest composition and structure for sustainable management and conservation practices.

Carl C Trettin↗

A Vision and Roadmap for Increasing User Autonomy in Flight Operations in the National Airspace

The purpose of Air Transportation is to move people and cargo safely, efficiently and swiftly to their destinations. The companies and individuals who use aircraft for this purpose, the airspace users, desire to operate their aircraft according to a dynamically optimized business trajectory for their specific mission and operational business model. In current operations, the dynamic optimization of business trajectories is limited by constraints built into operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) for reasons of safety and operational needs of the air navigation service providers. NASA has been developing and testing means to overcome many of these constraints and permit operations to be conducted closer to the airspace user's changing business trajectory as conditions unfold before and during the flight. A roadmap of logical steps progressing toward increased user autonomy is proposed, beginning with NASA's Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR) concept that enables flight crews to make informed, deconflicted flight-optimization requests to air traffic control. These steps include the use of data communications for route change requests and approvals, integration with time-based arrival flow management processes under development by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), increased user authority for defining and modifying downstream, strategic portions of the trajectory, and ultimately application of self-separation. This progression takes advantage of existing FAA NextGen programs and RTCA standards development, and it is designed to minimize the number of hardware upgrades required of airspace users to take advantage of these advanced capabilities to achieve dynamically optimized business trajectories in NAS operations. The roadmap is designed to provide operational benefits to first adopters so that investment decisions do not depend upon a large segment of the user community becoming equipped before benefits can be realized. The issues of equipment certification and operational approval of new procedures are addressed in a way that minimizes their impact on the transition by deferring a change in the assignment of separation responsibility until a large body of operational data is available to support the safety case for this change in the last roadmap step.This paper will relate the roadmap steps to ongoing activities to clarify the economics-based transition to these technologies for operational use.

Cotton, William B.↗

Ikhana: Unmanned Aircraft System Western States Fire Missions. Monographs in Aerospace History, Number 44

In 2006, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, Edwards, Calif., obtained a civil version of the General Atomics MQ-9 unmanned aircraft system and modified it for research purposes. Proposed missions included support of Earth science research, development of advanced aeronautical technology, and improving the utility of unmanned aerial systems in general. The project team named the aircraft Ikhana a Native American Choctaw word meaning intelligent, conscious, or aware in order to best represent NASA research goals. Building on experience with these and other unmanned aircraft, NASA scientists developed plans to use the Ikhana for a series of missions to map wildfires in the western United States and supply the resulting data to firefighters in near-real time. A team at NASA Ames Research Center, Mountain View, Calif., developed a multispectral scanner that was key to the success of what became known as the Western States Fire Missions. Carried out by team members from NASA, the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, National Interagency Fire Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Federal Aviation Administration, and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Inc., these flights represented an historic achievement in the field of unmanned aircraft technology.

Western States fire missions↗