Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Deep uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Hybrid Guidance Control for a Hypervelocity Small Size Asteroid Interceptor Vehicle

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are comets and/or asteroids that have orbits in proximity with Earth's own orbit. NEOs have collided with the Earth in the past, which can be seen at such places as Chicxulub crater, Barringer crater, and Manson crater, and will continue in the future with potentially significant and devastating results. Fortunately such NEO collisions with Earth are infrequent, but can happen at any time. Therefore it is necessary to develop and validate techniques as well as technologies necessary to prevent them. One approach to mitigate future NEO impacts is the concept of high-speed interceptor. This concept is to alter the NEO's trajectory via momentum exchange by using kinetic impactors as well as nuclear penetration devices. The interceptor has to hit a target NEO at relative velocity which imparts a sufficient change in NEO velocity. NASA's Deep Impact mission has demonstrated this scenario by intercepting Comet Temple 1, 5 km in diameter, with an impact relative speed of approximately 10 km/s. This paper focuses on the development of hybrid guidance navigation and control (GNC) algorithms for precision hypervelocity intercept of small sized NEOs. The spacecraft's hypervelocity and the NEO's small size are critical challenges for a successful mission as the NEO will not fill the field of view until a few seconds before intercept. The investigation needs to consider the error sources modeled in the navigation simulation such as spacecraft initial state uncertainties in position and velocity. Furthermore, the paper presents three selected spacecraft guidance algorithms for asteroid intercept and rendezvous missions. The selected algorithms are classical Proportional Navigation (PN) based guidance that use a first order difference to compute the derivatives, Three Plane Proportional Navigation (TPPN), and the Kinematic Impulse (KI). A manipulated Bennu orbit that has been changed to impact Earth will be used as a demonstrative example to compare the three methods. In addition, a hybrid approach that is a combination between proportional navigation and kinematic impulse will be investigated to find an effective, error tolerant, and power saving approach. A 3-dimension mission scenario for both the asteroid and the interceptor spacecraft software simulator is developed for testing of the controllers. The current result demonstrates that a miss distance magnitude of less than 10m is found using the PN and TPPN guidance laws for small asteroid in the presence of error in the spacecraft states. Moreover, the paper presents these results and also the hybrid control approach simulation results.

asteroid↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were ~3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar MariaRadarLunar Studies↗
NASA NTRS1995

Long-wavelength Radar Studies of the Lunar Maria

Radar measurements at 70 cm and 7.5 m wavelengths provide insight into the structure and chemical properties of the upper 5-100 m of the lunar regolith and crust. Past work has identified a number of anomalous regions and changes in echo strength, some attributed to differences in titanium content. There has been little opportunity, however, to compare calibrated long-wavelength backscatter among different units or to theoretical model results. We combine recent high-resolution (3-5 km) 70-cm radar data for the nearside with earlier calibrated full-disk observations to provide a reasonable estimate of the true lunar backscatter coefficient. These data are tested against models for quasi-specular scattering from the surface, echoes from a buried substrate, and Mie scattering from surface and buried rocks. We find that 70 cm echoes likely arise from Mie scattering by distributed rocks within the soil, consistent with earlier hypotheses. Returns from a buried substrate would provide a plausible fit to the observations only if the regolith depth were approx.3 m or less and varied little across the maria. Depolarized echoes are due to some combination of single and multiple scattering events, but it appears that single scattering alone could account for the observed echo power, based on comparisons with terrestrial rocky surfaces. Backscatter strength from the regolith is most strongly affected by the loss tangent, whose variation with mineral content is still poorly defined. We compared the backscatter values for the mare deposits to the oxide contents inferred from spectral ratio methods, and found that in general the unit boundaries evident in radar images closely follow those seen in color difference images. The 70-cm data are not well correlated with TiO2 values found using the Charette relationship nor with Fe abundances derived from Clementine observations. The lack of a relationship between radar echo and Fe content is reasonable given the distribution of iron among various mineral phases, but ilmenite content (FeTiO3) has typically been cited as the dominant cause of changes in loss tangent (and thus the radar absorption). The lack of correlation between the radar data and TiO2 estimates may arise from uncertainties in the Charette technique, subtle differences in the upper surface and bulk properties of the regolith, mineralogic effects on the radar not linked to titanium content, or to some combination of these factors. Dark crater haloes in the mare and highlands, and low radar returns from apparent cryptomare regions, are used to illustrate the role radar data can play in identifying changes in regolith composition; low-return haloes around craters such as Petavius may indicate 5-25% contamination of the highlands soil by excavated mare material or a layer of rock-poor ejecta at least several meters deep. The 7.5-m data were shown to correlate to a reasonable degree with estimates of Fe abundance, suggesting that this component of the mare basalts is primarily responsible for attenuation losses at very long wavelengths. The different sensitivities of the two radar wavelengths and multispectral data offers the potential for future deep mapping of the mare lava flows and regolith.

Lunar Studies↗
NASA NTRS2007

Effects of Nuclear Cross Sections at Different Energies on Space Radiation Exposure from Galactic Cosmic Rays

Space radiation from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) is a major hazard to space crews, especially in long duration human space explorations. For this reason, they will be protected by radiation shielding that fragments the GCR heavy ions. Here we investigate how sensitive the crew's radiation exposure is to nuclear fragmentation cross sections at different energies. We find that in deep space cross sections between about 0.2 and 1.2 GeV/u have the strongest effect on dose equivalent behind shielding in solar minimum GCR environments, and cross sections between about 0.6 and 1.7 GeV/u are the most important at solar maximum'. On the other hand, at the location of the International Space Station, cross sections at_higher -energies, between about 0.6 and 1.7 GeV /u at solar minimum and between about 1.7 and 3.4 GeV/u'at,solar maximum, are the most important This is. due-to the average geomagnetic cutoff for the ISS orbit. We also show the effect of uncertainties in the fragmentation cross sections on the elemental energy spectra behind shielding. These results help to focus the studies of fragmentation cross sections on the proper energy range in order to improve our predictions of crew exposures.

Li, Zi-Wei↗
NASA NTRS2013

Absorption Properties of Mediterranean Aerosols Obtained from Multi-year Ground-based and Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

Aerosol absorption properties are of high importance to assess aerosol impact on regional climate. This study presents an analysis of aerosol absorption products obtained over the Mediterranean Basin or land stations in the region from multi-year ground-based AERONET and satellite observations with a focus on the Absorbing Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and their spectral dependence. The AAOD and Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE) data set is composed of daily averaged AERONET level 2 data from a total of 22 Mediterranean stations having long time series, mainly under the influence of urban-industrial aerosols and/or soil dust. This data set covers the 17 yr period 1996-2012 with most data being from 2003-2011 (approximately 89 percent of level-2 AAOD data). Since AERONET level-2 absorption products require a high aerosol load (AOD at 440 nm greater than 0.4), which is most often related to the presence of desert dust, we also consider level-1.5 SSA data, despite their higher uncertainty, and filter out data with an Angstrom exponent less than 1.0 in order to study absorption by carbonaceous aerosols. The SSA data set includes both AERONET level-2 and satellite level-3 products. Satellite-derived SSA data considered are monthly level 3 products mapped at the regional scale for the spring and summer seasons that exhibit the largest aerosol loads. The satellite SSA dataset includes the following products: (i) Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) over 2000-2011, (ii) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) near-UV algorithm over 2004-2010, and (iii) MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep-Blue algorithm over 2005-2011, derived only over land in dusty conditions. Sun-photometer observations show that values of AAOD at 440 nm vary between 0.024 +/- 0.01 (resp. 0.040 +/- 0.01) and 0.050 +/- 0.01 (0.055 +/- 0.01) for urban (dusty) sites. Analysis shows that the Mediterranean urban-industrial aerosols appear "moderately" absorbing with values of SSA close to approximately 0.94-0.95 +/- 0.04 (at 440 nm) in most cases except over the large cities of Rome and Athens, where aerosol appears more absorbing (SSA approximately 0.89-0.90 +/- 0.04). The aerosol Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE, estimated using 440 and 870 nm) is found to be larger than 1 for most sites over the Mediterranean, a manifestation of mineral dust (iron) and/or brown carbon producing the observed absorption. AERONET level-2 sun-photometer data indicate the existence of a moderate East-West gradient, with higher values over the eastern basin (AAEEast. = 1.39/AAEWest. = 1.33) due to the influence of desert dust. The North-South AAE gradient is more pronounced, especially over the western basin. Our additional analysis of AERONET level-1.5 data also shows that organic absorbing aerosols significantly affect some Mediterranean sites. These results indicate that current climate models treating organics as nonabsorbing over the Mediterranean certainly underestimate the warming effect due to carbonaceous aerosols. A~comparative analysis of the regional SSA variability has been attempted using satellite data. OMI and MODIS data show an absorbing zone (SSA approximately 0.90 at 470-500 nm) over Northeastern Africa that does not appear in the MISR retrievals. In contrast, MISR seems able to observe the East-West SSA gradient during summer, as also detected by AERONET. Also, the analysis of SSA provided by satellites indicates that the aerosol over the Mediterranean Sea appears less absorbing during spring (MAM) than summer (JJA).

satellite remote sensing observations↗
NASA NTRS2015

Multiplying Mars Lander Opportunities with Marsdrop Microlanders

From canyons to glaciers, from geology to astrobiology, the amount of exciting surface science awaiting us at Mars greatly outstrips available mission opportunities. Based on the thrice -flown Aerospace Corporation Earth Reentry Breakup Recorder (REBR), we present a method for accurate landing of small instrument payloads on Mars, utilizing excess cruise -stage mass on larger missions. One to a few such microlanders might add 1-5% to the cost of a primary mission with inconsequential risk. Using the REBR and JPL Deep Space 2 starting points for a passively stable entry vehicle provides a low mass and low ballistic coefficient, enabling subsonic d employment of a steerable parawing glider, capable of 10+ km of guided flight at a 3:1 glide ratio. Originally developed for the Gemini human space program, the parawing is attractive for a volume -limited microprobe, minimizing descent velocity, and providing sufficient remaining volume for a useful scientific payload. The ability to steer the parawing during descent opens unique opportunities, including terrain- relative navigation for landing within tens of meters of one of several specified targets within a given uncertainty ellipse. In addition to scientific value, some Mars human exploration Strategic Knowledge Gaps could be addressed with deployment of focused instruments at multiple locations.

Staehle, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of Vertical Patterns in Chlorophyll-A Derived From A Data Assimilating Model of Satellite-Based Ocean Color

Satellite-based sensors of ocean color have become the primary tool to infer changes in surface chlorophyll, while BGC-Argo floats are now filling the information gap at depth. Here we use BGC-Argo data to assess depth-resolved information on chlorophyll-a derived from an ocean biogeochemical model constrained by the assimilation of surface ocean color remote sensing. The data-assimilating model replicates well the general seasonality and meridional gradients in surface and depth-resolved chlorophyll-a inferred from the float array in the Southern Ocean. On average, the model tends to overestimate float-based chlorophyll, particularly at times and locations of high productivity such as the beginning of the spring bloom, subtropical deep chlorophyll maxima, and non-iron limited regions of the Southern Ocean. The highest model RMSE in the upper 50 m with respect to the float array is of 0.6 mg Chl m −3 , which should allow the detection of seasonal changes in float-based biomass (varying between 0.01 and >1 mg Chl m −3 ) but might hinder the identification of subtle changes in chlorophyll at narrow local scales. Both model and float profiling data show good agreement with in situ data from station ALOHA, with model estimates showing a slight accuracy edge in inferring depth-resolved observations. Uncertainties in float bio-optical estimates impede their use as a reliable benchmark for validation, but the general qualitative agreement between model and float data provides confidence in the ability of model to replicate biogeochemical features below the surface, where data is not directly constrained by the assimilation of satellite ocean color.

Lionel A Quintero↗
NASA NTRS1993

Targeting an asteroid: The DSPSE encounter with asteroid 1620 Geographos

Accurate targeting of the Deep Space Program Science Experiment (DSPSE) spacecraft to achieve a 100 km sunward flyby of asteroid 1620 Geographos will require that the ground-based ephemeris of Geographos be well known in advance of the encounter. Efforts are underway to ensure that precision optical and radar observations are available for the final asteroid orbit update that takes place several hours prior to the DSPSE flyby. Because the asteroid passes very close to the Earth six days prior to the DSPSE encounter, precision ground-based optical and radar observations should be available. These ground-based data could reduce the asteroid's position uncertainties (1-sigma) to about 10 km. This ground-based target ephemeris error estimate is far lower than for any previous comet or asteroid that has been under consideration as a mission target.

Yeomans, Donald K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Assessment of holographic microscopy for quantifying marine particle size and concentration

Holographic microscopy has emerged as a tool for in situ imaging of microscopic organisms and other particles in the marine environment: appealing because of the relatively larger sampling volume and simpler optical configuration compared to other imaging systems. However, its quantitative capabilities have so far remained uncertain, in part because hologram reconstruction and image recognition have required manual operation. Here, we assess the quantitative skill of our automated hologram processing pipeline (CCV Pipeline), to evaluate the size and concentration measurements of environmental and cultured assemblages of marine plankton particles, and microspheres. Over 1 million particles, ranging from 10 to 200 μm in equivalent spherical diameter, imaged by the 4‐Deep HoloSea digital inline holographic microscope (DIHM) are analyzed. These measurements were collected in parallel with a FlowCam (FC), Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), and manual microscope identification. Once corrections for particle location and nonuniform illumination were developed and applied, the DIHM showed an underestimate in ESD of about 3% to 10%, but successfully reproduced the size spectral slope from environmental samples, and the size distribution of cultures (Dunaliella tertiolecta, Heterosigma akashiwo, and Prorocentrum micans) and microspheres. DIHM concentrations (order 1 to 1000 particles ml(exp −1)) showed a linear agreement (r(exp 2) = 0.73) with the other instruments, but individual comparisons at times had large uncertainty. Overall, we found the DIHM and the CCV Pipeline required extensive manual correction, but once corrected, provided concentration and size estimates comparable to the other imaging systems assessed in this study. Holographic cameras are mechanically simple, autonomous, can operate at very high pressures, and provide a larger sampling volume than comparable lens‐based tools. Thus, we anticipate that these characterization efforts will be rewarded with novel discovery in new oceanic environments.

Noah L. Walcutt↗
NASA NTRS2024

Transfer-AE: A novel autoencoder-based impact detection model for structural digital twin

Accurately detecting the location and intensity of impacts is crucial for ensuring structural safety. Currently, AI-based structural impact detection methods are widely used for their excellent detection accuracy. However, their generalization capability is limited by the scenarios present in the training data. Many complex and dangerous impact scenarios are difficult to conduct real-world experiments on to collect sufficient samples. To capture all impact scenarios and fully leverage the advantages of AI-based detection technologies, advanced methods involve combining real-world structural monitoring data with corresponding numerical models to construct digital twins. These methods continuously refine the created numerical models with limited real-world data and provide diverse impact scenarios through numerical model simulations. However, there are inevitable differences between digital models and physical models that are challenging to correct through mechanical means. This discrepancy in data distribution between the two models significantly hinders the application of digital twin technology in impact/event identification tasks. To address this challenge, this study proposes a novel model based on autoencoders, named Transfer-AE. Transfer-AE encodes the common features of digital twins in the latent space to bridge the uncertainty gap at a macro scale between numerical models and physical models and synchronously fits the magnitude and location of the impact load in the decoder. This enables consistent detection results for the same impact event, whether the sample comes from the numerical model or the physical model. Transfer-AE includes two operating modes: Mode 1 has a fixed computational complexity with stable inference speed, but the training cost and difficulty increase with data distribution. Mode 2's computational complexity increases with data distribution, but it has a fixed training cost and speed. In both cases involving the geodesic dome structure simulating a deep space habitat and the IASC-ASCE benchmark structure, Transfer-AE demonstrated the best performance in impact localization and quantification tasks compared to mainstream domain-adaptive transfer models.

Chengjia Han↗
NASA NTRS2006

Reliability of Radioisotope Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator

Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA s deep-space missions would require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 years. Critical components and materials of Stirling convertors have been undergoing extensive testing and evaluation in support of a reliable performance for the specified life span. Of significant importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor is the design of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. Alternator performance could vary due to small deviations in the permanent magnet properties, operating temperature, and component geometries. Durability prediction and reliability of the alternator may be affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in predicting the reliability of the linear alternator performance. This paper presents a study in which a reliability-based methodology is used to assess alternator performance. The response surface characterizing the induced open-circuit voltage performance is constructed using 3-D finite element magnetic analysis. Fast probability integration method is used to determine the probability of the desired performance and its sensitivity to the alternator design parameters.

Shah, Ashwin↗
NASA NTRS2022

Vertical Structure in Phytoplankton Growth and Productivity Inferred From Biogeochemical-Argo Floats and the Carbon-Based Productivity Model

Estimates of marine net primary production (NPP) commonly rely on limited in situ 14C incubations or satellite-based algorithms mainly constrained to the surface ocean. Here we combine data from biogeochemical Argo floats with a carbon-based productivity model (CbPM) to compute vertically-resolved estimates of NPP. Inferred NPP profiles derived by informing the CbPM with float-based, depth-resolved, bio-optical data are able to qualitatively reproduce the vertical structure in NPP inferred from in situ 14C incubations at various ocean regions. At station ALOHA, float-based estimates agree within uncertainty with productivity observations at depth, but underestimate surface NPP. We test the ability of the CbPM to infer the depth-resolved structure in NPP from bio-optical properties in the mixed layer, in similar fashion as how remote sensing algorithms of ocean productivity operate. In Southern Ocean waters, the depth-reconstructing implementation of the CbPM overestimates phytoplankton division rates and Chl:C below the mixed layer, resulting in artificially high subsurface NPP when compared with the fully float-informed implementation of the model. The CbPM subsurface extrapolation of phytoplankton Chl, Chl:C division rates, and NPP improves by accounting for deep nutrient (iron) stress impacts on photoacclimation in the Southern Ocean. This improvement is also observed in vertically- integrated NPP, where the mean bias between model implementations in depth-integrated productivity south of 30◦S is reduced by 62 % when account for deep iron limitation. Our results demonstrate that profiling data from biogeochemical Argo floats can serve to inform regional adjustments that lead to the improvement of marine productivity algorithms.

NPP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monitoring the Calibration of the DSCOVR EPIC Instrument’s Visible Cchannels Using MODIS and VIIRS as a Reference

The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) instrument aboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) satellite has a constant unique view of the sunlit disk of the Earth from the Lagrange-1 (L1) point nearly a million miles away from the Earth. Due to EPIC not having any on-board calibration systems, the ten spectral channels of EPIC must be inter-calibrated using vicarious on-orbit methods, such as ray-matching with well-calibrated low Earth orbiting satellites like the Aqua-MODIS and SNPP-VIIRS radiometers. The recently released EPIC version 3 L1B data has greatly enhanced the residual navigation errors found in prior versions, thereby decreasing the calibration uncertainty in the aforementioned ray-matching calibration techniques. The automated navigation correction used by these ray-matching methods for further improving the EPIC geolocation will be compared with a new navigation correction method utilizing optical flow between the EPIC and MODIS/VIIRS images. The DSCOVR satellite went into safe mode on June 27, 2019 due to an anomaly with the satellite’s attitude control system, but operations recommenced on March 2, 2020. The calibration of the EPIC instrument before it went into safe mode and after it resumed will be analyzed in order to investigate any potential calibration shifts or discontinuities caused by the spacecraft anomaly.

Conor Haney↗
NASA NTRS1980

Geodetic measurements with a mobile VLBI system

The Project ARIES 9 meter transportable antenna was used as one element of very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) to begin monitoring locations of six sites in California relative to large diameter fixed antennas at the NASA Deep Space Network, Goldstone, California, and at the Caltech Owens Valley Radio Observatory, Big Pine, California. An accuracy of about 6 cm in the horizontal components was demonstrated by comparison with measurements of the National Geodetic Survey. The root of mean square scatter of the lengths of the baselines between any pair of antennas was about 3 cm except for the Goldstone-JPL (Pasadena) baseline. In the period August 1974 to August 1977 the length of this baseline increased by 15 + or - 5 cm as JPL moved westward relative to Goldstone at the rate of 6 + or - 2 cm/year. The baseline lengths were unaffected by the uncertainties of UT1, polar motion, and tropospheric water vapor, which are the limitations to present three dimensional vector accuracies.

Niell, A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Planning as an Iterative Process

Activity planning for missions such as the Mars Exploration Rover mission presents many technical challenges, including oversubscription, consideration of time, concurrency, resources, preferences, and uncertainty. These challenges have all been addressed by the research community to varying degrees, but significant technical hurdles still remain. In addition, the integration of these capabilities into a single planning engine remains largely unaddressed. However, I argue that there is a deeper set of issues that needs to be considered namely the integration of planning into an iterative process that begins before the goals, objectives, and preferences are fully defined. This introduces a number of technical challenges for planning, including the ability to more naturally specify and utilize constraints on the planning process, the ability to generate multiple qualitatively different plans, and the ability to provide deep explanation of plans.

Smith, David E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Systematic Differences between Satellite-Based Presipitation Climatologies over the Tropical Oceans

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. It is clear however that there still remain significant uncertainties with satellite precipitation retrievals which limit their usefulness for many purposes. Systematic differences i'A tropical precipitation estimates have been brought to light in comparison activities such as the GPCP Algorithm Intercomparison Project and more recent Wetnet Precipitation Intercomparison Project 3. These uncertainties are assuming more importance because of the demands for validation associated with global climate modeling and data assimilation methodologies. The objective of the present study is to determine the physical basis for systematic differences in spatial structure of tropical precipitation as portrayed by several different satellite-based data sets. The study is limited to oceanic regions only and deals primarily with aspects of spatial variability. We are specifically interested in why MSU channel 1 and GPI precipitation differences are so striking over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ and why they both differ from other microwave emission-based precipitation estimates from SSM/I and a scattering-based deep convective ice index from MSU channel 2. Our results to date have shown that MSU channel I precipitation estimates are biased high over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ because of two factors: (1) the hypersensitivity of this frequency to cloud water in contrast to falling rain drops, and (2) unaccounted for scattering effects by precipitation-size ice which depresses the signal of the liquid water emission. Likewise, cold cloud top climatologies such as the GPI show an excess (a deficit) in estimated rainfall over the E. Pacific ITCZ (Warm Pool region). We show that these algorithms need to account for regionally varying heights (or temperatures) at which tropical convection detrains to form cirrus shields. A second objective we pursue is to identify variations in the macroscale cloud physical and thermodynamic properties of precipitation regimes" and relate these differences to tropical dynamical mechanisms of tropical heat and moisture balance. Finally, we interpret the algorithm differences and their associations with tropical dynamics in terms of WCRP GPCP goals for constructing precipitation climatologies.

Robertson, Frankin R.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impact of Dust Radiative Forcing upon Climate

Dust aerosols perturb the atmospheric radiative flux at both solar and thermal wavelengths, altering the energy and water cycles. The climate adjusts by redistributing energy and moisture, so that local temperature perturbations, for example, depend upon the forcing over the entire extent of the perturbed circulation. Within regions frequently mixed by deep convection, including the deep tropics, dust particles perturb the surface air temperature primarily through radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). Many models predict that dust reduces global precipitation. This reduction is typically attributed to the decrease of surface evaporation in response to dimming of the surface. A counterexample is presented, where greater shortwave absorption by dust increases evaporation and precipitation despite greater dimming of the surface. This is attributed to the dependence of surface evaporation upon TOA forcing through its influence upon surface temperature and humidity. Perturbations by dust to the surface wind speed and vegetation (through precipitation anomalies) feed back upon the dust aerosol concentration. The current uncertainty of radiative forcing attributed to dust and the resulting range of climate perturbations calculated by models remain a useful test of our understanding of the mechanisms relating dust radiative forcing to the climate response.

Feedback upon dust mobilization↗
NASA NTRS2006

Stirling Convertor Fasteners Reliability Quantification

Onboard Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) being developed for NASA s deep-space science and exploration missions require reliable operation for up to 14 years and beyond. Stirling power conversion is a candidate for use in an RPS because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced inventory of radioactive material. Structural fasteners are responsible to maintain structural integrity of the Stirling power convertor, which is critical to ensure reliable performance during the entire mission. Design of fasteners involve variables related to the fabrication, manufacturing, behavior of fasteners and joining parts material, structural geometry of the joining components, size and spacing of fasteners, mission loads, boundary conditions, etc. These variables have inherent uncertainties, which need to be accounted for in the reliability assessment. This paper describes these uncertainties along with a methodology to quantify the reliability, and provides results of the analysis in terms of quantified reliability and sensitivity of Stirling power conversion reliability to the design variables. Quantification of the reliability includes both structural and functional aspects of the joining components. Based on the results, the paper also describes guidelines to improve the reliability and verification testing.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗