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DOE OSTI2021

Recent Advances in Machine Learning for Fiber Optic Sensor Applications

Over the last three decades, fiber optic sensors (FOS) have gained a lot of attention for their wide range of monitoring applications across many industries, including aerospace, defense, security, civil engineering, and energy. FOS technologies hold great promise to form the backbone for next‐generation intelligent sensing platforms that offer long‐distance, high‐accuracy, distributed measurement capabilities and multiparametric monitoring with resilience to harsh environmental conditions. The major limitations posed by FOS are 1) cross‐sensitivity, 2) enormous volume and large data generation, 3) low data processing speed, 4) degradation of signal‐to‐noise ratio over the fiber length, and 5) overall cost of sensor and interrogator systems. These challenges can be overcome by building advanced data analytics engines enabled by recent breakthroughs in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI). This article presents a comprehensive review of recent studies that integrate ML and AI algorithms with FOS technologies. This review also highlights several FOS technology development directions that promise a significant impact on widespread use for several industrial applications, with an emphasis on energy systems monitoring. A perspective on future directions for further research development is also provided.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

DiffLense: a conditional diffusion model for super-resolution of gravitational lensing data

Abstract Gravitational lensing data is frequently collected at low resolution due to instrumental limitations and observing conditions. Machine learning-based super-resolution techniques offer a method to enhance the resolution of these images, enabling more precise measurements of lensing effects and a better understanding of the matter distribution in the lensing system. This enhancement can significantly improve our knowledge of the distribution of mass within the lensing galaxy and its environment, as well as the properties of the background source being lensed. Traditional super-resolution techniques typically learn a mapping function from lower-resolution to higher-resolution samples. However, these methods are often constrained by their dependence on optimizing a fixed distance function, which can result in the loss of intricate details crucial for astrophysical analysis. In this work, we introduce DiffLense , a novel super-resolution pipeline based on a conditional diffusion model specifically designed to enhance the resolution of gravitational lensing images obtained from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP). Our approach adopts a generative model, leveraging the detailed structural information present in Hubble space telescope (HST) counterparts. The diffusion model, trained to generate HST data, is conditioned on HSC data pre-processed with denoising techniques and thresholding to significantly reduce noise and background interference. This process leads to a more distinct and less overlapping conditional distribution during the model’s training phase. We demonstrate that DiffLense outperforms existing state-of-the-art single-image super-resolution techniques, particularly in retaining the fine details necessary for astrophysical analyses.

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2019

Data Locality Enhancement of Dynamic Simulations for Exascale Computing (Final Report)

The development of modern processors exhibits two trends that complicate the optimizations of modern software. The first is the increasing sensitivity of processors' throughput to irregularities in computation. With more processors produced through a massive integration of simple cores, future systems will increasingly favor regular data-level parallel computations, but deviate from the needs of applications with complex patterns. Some evidences are already shown on Graphic Processing Units (GPU): Irregular data accesses (e.g., indirect references A[D[i]]) and conditional branches are limiting many GPU applications' performance at a level an order of magnitude lower than the peak of GPU. The second hardware trend is the growing gap between memory bandwidth and the aggregate speed—that is, the sum of all cores' computing power—of a Chip Multiprocessor (CMP). Despite the capped growth of the peak CPU speed, the aggregate speed of a CMP keeps increasing as more cores get into a single chip. It is expected that by 2018, node concurrency in an exascale system will increase by hundreds of times, whereas, memory bandwidth will expand by only 10 to 20 times. Consequently, data movement and storage is expected to consume more than 70% of the total system power. Bridging this gap is difficult; the complexities of modern CMP memory hierarchy make it even harder: Data cache becomes shared among computing units, and the sharing is often non-uniform—whether two computing units share a cache depends on their proximity and the level of the cache. On the recent IBM Power7 architecture, for instance, four hardware contexts (or SMT threads) in a core share the entire memory hierarchy, all cores in one chip share an on-chip L3 cache, and cores across chips share L3 and main memory through off-chip connections. These two trends complicate the translation of computing power into performance, especially for a program with either intensive data accesses or complex patterns in data accesses or control flow paths. Unfortunately, both attributes present and will persist in a class of important applications. For instance, many scientific simulations deal with a large volume of data. And meanwhile, as most real-world processes are non-uniform and evolving (e.g., the evolution of a galaxy or the process of a drug injection), both the computations and data accesses of these programs tend to be irregular and dynamically changing. Currently, the lack of support to these applications on modern CMP severely limits their performance. On GPU, as our recent study shows and other studies echo, performance enhancement of a factor of integers is possible when memory accesses or control flows are streamlined for a set of GPU applications. On multicore CPU, our studies show that traditional locality enhancement, for being oblivious to the new features of multicore memory hierarchy, may even cause large slowdown to data-intensive dynamic applications. The severity of the issues is expected to worsen as the two hardware trends continue. Some recent studies try to match software with the trends, but in a limited scope or manner. For irregularities on GPU, most studies focus on irregularities analyzable through static analysis (e.g., data accesses in regular loops). Dynamic irregularities are harder to address because the needed analysis and transformations typically have to happen at run time. Some other research resorts to hardware extensions, an actual adoption of which is unclear for the entailed space cost and complexity. For data locality, recent years have seen some exploitations of the new memory hierarchy on multicore for performance, but most of them are on process or thread scheduling, rather than program transformations. Our recent study reveals that program-level transformations may magnify the scheduling benefits by a factor of seven, concluding that program-level transformation should play a central role for data locality enhancement on modern CMP. But research in this direction has been sparse, and most have focused on data layout or cache performance modeling, rather than program transformations to match with the new memory hierarchy features. Overall, it is still an open question how to bridge the gap between dynamic computations and the two prominent properties of modern processors. The goal of this project is to develop a set of techniques and software tools to enhance the matching between memory accesses in dynamic simulations and the prominent features of modern and future CMP, alleviating the memory performance issues for petascale and exascale computing. This report summarizes the discoveries and products produced throughout this project. It includes free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods; coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution; algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Supporting dynamic parallelism is important for GPU to benefit a broad range of applications. There are currently two fundamental ways for programs to exploit dynamic parallelism on GPU: a software-based approach with software-managed worklists, and a hardware-based approach through dynamic subkernel launches. Neither is satisfactory. The former is complicated to program and is often subject to some load imbalance; the latter suffers large runtime overhead. In this work, we propose free launch, a new software approach to overcoming the shortcomings of both methods. It allows programmers to use subkernel launches to express dynamic parallelism. It employs a novel compiler-based code transformation named subkernel launch removal to replace the subkernel launches with the reuse of parent threads. Coupled with an adaptive task assignment mechanism, the transformation reassigns the tasks in the subkernels to the parent threads with a good load balance. The technique requires no hardware extensions, immediately deployable on existing GPUs. It keeps the programming convenience of the subkernel launch-based approach while avoiding its large runtime overhead. Meanwhile, its superior load balancing makes it outperform manual worklist-based techniques by 3X on average. The work was published at the 48th Annual IEEE/ACM International Symposium on Microarchitecture (Micro'2015). A Graphic Processing Unit (GPU) system is typically equipped with many types of memory (e.g., global, constant, texture, shared, cache). Data placement determines what data are placed on which type of memory, essential for GPU memory performance. Prior optimizations of data placement always require a single view of a data object on memory, which limits the optimization effectiveness. In this work, we propose coherence-free multiview, an approach that allows multiple views of a single data object to co-exist on GPU memory during a GPU kernel execution. We demonstrate that under certain conditions, the multiple views can remain incoherent while facilitating enhanced data placement. We present a theorem and some compiler support to ensure the soundness of the usage of coherence-free multiview. We further develop reference-discerning data placement, a new way to enhance data placements on GPU. It enables more flexible data placements by using coherence-free multiview to leverage the slack in coherence requirement of some GPU programs. Experiments on three types of GPU systems show that, with less than 200KB space cost, the new data placement technique can provide a 1.6X average (up to 4.27X) speedup. In addition, we have examined algorithmic optimizations to data analytics problems, especially those that involve lots of distance calculations. Computing distances among data points is an essential part of many important algorithms in data analytics, graph analysis, and other domains. In each of these domains, developers have spent significant manual effort optimizing algorithms, often through novel applications of the triangle equality, in order to minimize the number of distance computations in the algorithms. In this work, we observe that many algorithms across these domains can be generalized as an instance of a generic distance-related abstraction. Based on this abstraction, we derive seven principles for correctly applying the triangular inequality to optimize distance-related algorithms. Guided by the findings, we develop Triangular OPtimizer (TOP), the first software framework that is able to automatically produce optimized algorithms that either matches or outperforms manually designed algorithms for solving distance-related problems. TOP achieves up to 237x speedups and 2.5X on average. The work has been published at the 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML'15) and the 41st International Conference on Very Large Data Bases (VLDB'15).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Process Optimization of Carbon Electrode Materials Manufacturing by Experimental Study and Machine Learning Techniques

Electrospun carbon fibers from coal have been investigated as electrodes for batteries and supercapacitors. Despite the excellent properties of coal-derived carbon fibers (CCNF) for energy storage devices, there still lacks systematic understanding on how various process parameters affect final electrode performances, which poses challenges to scale from pilot to high volume manufacturing. The goals of this project are twofold. First, we focuse on process optimization for converting a new precursor from powder river basin (PRB) coal, referred to as coal-based polyurethane (CPU) to CCNF using electrospinning. Second, different machine learning techniques will be examined using experimental data from this work and open literature. Specifically, for CPU the following process parameters need to be characterized and optimized in order to produce CCNFs with desirable mechanical integrity and physiochemical properties: precursor composition and viscosity, operating voltage and distance, oxidation and carbonization temperature and duration. Consequently, physiochemical properties of the fibers were characterized to correlate these process parameters with desirable electrochemical performance. Given the complex nature of the fiber production process, ML models are assessed for their ability to capture the nonlinear relationship between process parameters and the electrochemical properties in applications including supercapacitors. As such, we applied various machine learning techniques, to determine which technique produces a model that best predicts device function.

Cincotta, Robert E.F.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Jet charge and machine learning

Modern machine learning techniques, such as convolutional, recurrent and recursive neural networks, have shown promise for jet substructure at the Large Hadron Collider. For example, they have demonstrated effectiveness at boosted top or W boson identification or for quark/gluon discrimination. We explore these methods for the purpose of classifying jets according to their electric charge. We find that both neural networks that incorporate distance within the jet as an input and boosted decision trees including radial distance information can provide significant improvement in jet charge extraction over current methods. Specifically, convolutional, recurrent, and recursive networks can provide the largest improvement over traditional methods, in part by effectively utilizing distance within the jet or clustering history. Furthermore, the advantages of using a fixed-size input representation (as with the CNN) or a small input representation (as with the RNN) suggest that both convolutional and recurrent networks will be essential to the future of modern machine learning at colliders.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Q-Cluster: Quantum Error Mitigation Through Noise-Aware Unsupervised Learning

Quantum error mitigation (QEM) is critical in reducing the impact of noise in the pre-fault-tolerant era, and is expected to complement error correction in fault-tolerant quantum computing (FTQC). In this work, we propose a novel QEM approach, Q-Cluster, that uses unsupervised learning (clustering) to reshape the measured bit-string distribution. Our approach starts with a simplified bit-flip noise model. It first performs clustering on noisy measurement results, i.e., bit-strings, based on the Hamming distance. The centroid of each cluster is calculated using a qubit-wise majority vote. Next, the noisy distribution is adjusted with the clustering outcomes and the bitflip error rates using Bayesian inference. Our simulation results show that Q-Cluster can mitigate high noise rates (up to 40% per qubit) with the simple bit-flip noise model. However, real quantum computers do not fit such a simple noise model. To address the problem, we (a) apply Pauli twirling to tailor the complex noise channels to Pauli errors, and (b) employ a machine learning model, ExtraTrees regressor, to estimate an effective bit-flip error rate using a feature vector consisting of machine calibration data (gate & measurement error rates), circuit features (number of qubits, numbers of different types of gates, etc.) and the shape of the noisy distribution (entropy). Our experimental results show that our proposed Q-Cluster scheme improves the fidelity by a factor of 1.46x, on average, compared to the unmitigated output distribution, for a set of low-entropy benchmarks on five different IBM quantum machines. Our approach outperforms the state-of-art QEM approaches RZNE [28], M3 [24], Hammer [35], and QBEEP [33] by 1.26x,1.29x,1.47x, and 2.65 x, respectively.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning inversion from scattering for mechanically driven polymers

A machine learning inversion method is developed for analyzing scattering functions of mechanically driven polymers and extracting the corresponding feature parameters, which include energy parameters and conformation variables. The polymer is modeled as a chain of fixed-length bonds constrained by bending energy, and it is subject to external forces such as stretching and shear. We generate a data set consisting of random combinations of energy parameters, including bending modulus, stretching and shear force, along with Monte Carlo-calculated scattering functions and conformation variables such as end-to-end distance, radius of gyration and off-diagonal component of the gyration tensor. The effects of the energy parameters on the polymer are captured by the scattering function, and principal component analysis ensures the feasibility of the machine learning inversion. Finally, we train a Gaussian process regressor using part of the data set as a training set and validate the trained regressor for inversion using the rest of the data. The regressor successfully extracts the feature parameters.

Gaussian process regressors↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Production on Past and Future NASA Missions

Data return is a metric that is commonly publicized for all space science missions. In the early days of the Space Program, this figure was small, and could be described in bits or maybe even megabits. But now, missions are capable of returning data volumes two or three orders of magnitude larger. For example, Voyager 1 and 2 combined produced a little over 5 Terabits of data in 39 years of operation. In contrast, the Cassini mission, launched two decades after Voyager, produced about one and a half times those data volumes in half the time. NISAR, an Earth Science Mission currently in implementation, plans to produce over 28 Petabits of raw data in just 3 years. This means that NISAR will produce about as many data in 30 days as the combined data production of nearly all planetary missions to date. These increases in capability are a result of technology enhancements in two main areas: telecommunications architecture (both space and ground segments) and data storage technology. This paper describes the progression of these two technologies over the course of more than three decades of space missions and provides additional insight into the design of the end-to-end NISAR Data System Architecture. Trends in the data are briefly explored and compared to Moore’s Law which provides only a qualitative model for memory growth but not for data production. In summary, early missions are found to be driven by unrefined processes while later missions, having utilized earlier lessons learned, focus more on improvements to flight and ground capabilities. Data return seems to fall into three categories. First, deep space missions are driven by the large distances that limit data return to the Earth. Next, the orbiter infrastructure around Mars helps these missions generate more data than other deep space spacecraft. Finally, near-Earth missions have the greatest capabilities for the studied metrics due to their close proximity to Earth and the ground network availability.

Xaypraseuth, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Generative Adversarial Network for Synthetic Time Series Data Generation in Smart Grids

The availability of fine grained time series data is a pre-requisite for research in smart-grids. While data for transmission systems is relatively easily obtainable, issues related to data collection, security and privacy hinder the widespread public availability/accessibility of such datasets at the distribution system level. This has prevented the larger research community from effectively applying sophisticated machine learning algorithms to significantly improve the distribution-level accuracy of predictions and increase the efficiency of grid operations. Synthetic dataset generation has proven to be a promising solution for addressing data availability issues in various domains such as computer vision, natural language processing and medicine. However, its exploration in the smart grid context remains unsatisfactory. Previous works have tried to generate synthetic datasets by modeling the underlying system dynamics: an approach which is difficult, time consuming, error prone and often times infeasible in many problems. In this work, we propose a novel data-driven approach to synthetic dataset generation by utilizing deep generative adversarial networks (GAN) to learn the conditional probability distribution of essential features in the real dataset and generate samples based on the learned distribution. To evaluate our synthetically generated dataset, we measure the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) between real and synthetic datasets as probability distributions, and show that their sampling distance converges. To further validate our synthetic dataset, we perform common smart grid tasks such as k-means clustering and short-term prediction on both datasets. Experimental results show the efficacy of our synthetic dataset approach: the real and synthetic datasets are indistinguishable by solely examining the output of these tasks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Learning the factors controlling mineral dissolution in three-dimensional fracture networks: applications in geologic carbon sequestration

We perform a set of high-fidelity simulations of geochemical reactions within three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFN) and use various machine learning techniques to determine the primary factors controlling mineral dissolution. The DFN are partially filled with quartz that gradually dissolves until quasi-steady state conditions are reached. At this point, we measure the quartz remaining in each fracture within the domain as our primary quantity of interest. We observe that a primary sub-network of fractures exists, where the quartz has been fully dissolved out. This reduction in resistance to flow leads to increased flow channelization and reduced solute travel times. However, depending on the DFN topology and the rate of dissolution, we observe substantial variability in the volume of quartz remaining within fractures outside of the primary subnetwork. This variability indicates an interplay between the fracture network structure and geochemical reactions. We characterize the features controlling these processes by developing a machine learning framework to extract their relevant impact. Specifically, we use a combination of high-fidelity simulations with a graph-based approach to study geochemical reactive transport in a complex fracture network to determine the key features that control dissolution. We consider topological, geometric and hydrological features of the fracture network to predict the remaining quartz in quasi-steady state. We found that the dissolution reaction rate constant of quartz and the distance to the primary sub-network in the fracture network are the two most important features controlling the amount of quartz remaining. This study is a first step towards characterizing the parameters that control carbon mineralization using an approach with integrates computational physics and machine learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A versatile machine learning workflow for high-throughput analysis of supported metal catalyst particles

Accurate and efficient characterization of nanoparticles (NPs), particularly regarding particle size distribution, is essential for advancing our understanding of their structure-property relationship and facilitating their design for various applications. In this study, we introduce a novel two-stage artificial intelligence (AI)-driven workflow for NP analysis that leverages prompt engineering techniques from state-of-the-art single-stage object detection and large-scale vision transformer (ViT) architectures. This methodology is applied to transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and scanning TEM (STEM) images of heterogeneous catalysts, enabling high-resolution, high-throughput analysis of particle size distributions for supported metal catalyst NPs. The model's performance in detecting and segmenting NPs is validated across diverse heterogeneous catalyst systems, including various metals (Ru, Cu, PtCo, and Pt), supports (silica (SiO 2 ), γ-alumina (γ-Al 2 O 3 ), and carbon black), and particle diameter size distributions with mean and standard deviations ranging from 1.6 ± 0.2 nm to 9.7 ± 4.6 nm. The proposed machine learning (ML) methodology achieved an average F1 overlap score of 0.91 ± 0.01 and demonstrated the ability to disentangle overlapping NPs anchored on catalytic support materials. The segmentation accuracy is further validated using the Hausdorff distance and robust Hausdorff distance metrics, with the 90th percent of the robust Hausdorff distance showing errors within 0.4 ± 0.1 nm to 1.4 ± 0.6 nm. In conclusion, our AI-assisted NP analysis workflow demonstrates robust generalization across diverse datasets and can be readily applied to similar NP segmentation tasks without requiring costly model retraining.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models

Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

From observation to replication: machine-learning-driven quantification and replication of fine-scale fish kinematics and behavior

Long-term quantification of fish behavior is essential for aquatic ecology, wildlife telemetry, and biomechanical device development. However, the observation duration required to obtain reliable behavioral and kinematic metrics remains unclear, and few tools exist to physically reproduce natural swimming motion for controlled experimentation. We address these challenges by developing a generalizable framework that models behavioral reliability (Spearman–Brown reliability index) as a function of observation duration and derives metric-specific monitoring thresholds. Using juvenile white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) as a case study, we demonstrate that the minimum duration needed for reliable estimates varies substantially across kinematic features: to exceed a reliability of 0.8, total distance traveled requires 12 days, average curvature (mm?¹) 15 days, tail-beat frequency (Hz) 8 days, and average speed (body length/s) 17 days. We further bridge digital analysis and physical testing by developing a hardware-in-the-loop simulator that reconstructs machine-learning-derived swimming kinematics with high fidelity (correlation coefficient 0.98–0.99, RMSE 1.22–1.27 mm over a 5-minute segment). This platform enables realistic, repeatable motion stimuli for evaluating aquatic sensing technologies and bio-integrated devices under controlled conditions. Together, these contributions provide a scalable approach for designing long-term behavioral studies and a data-driven connection between ecological observation and robotic experimentation.

Hwang, SungJoo↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗