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DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1991

The Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) at the Ames Research Center manages aircraft data in collaboration with an ecosystem research project

The Pilot Land Data System (PLDS) is a data and information system serving NASA-supported investigators in the land science community. The three nodes of the PLDS, one each at the Ames Research Center (ARC), the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), cooperate in providing consistent information describing the various data holding in the hardware and software (accessible via network and modem) that provide information about and access to PLDS-held data, which is available for distribution. A major new activity of the PLDS node at the Ames Research Center involves the interaction of the PLDS with an active NASA ecosystem science project, the Oregon Transect Ecosystems Research involves the management of, access to, and distribution of the large volume of widely-varying aircraft data collected by OTTER. The OTTER project, is managed by researchers at the Ames Research Center and Oregon State University. Its principal objective is to estimate major fluxes of carbon, nitrogen, and water of forest ecosystems using an ecosystem process model driven by remote sensing data. Ten researchers at NASA centers and universities are analyzing data for six sites along a temperature-moisture gradient across the western half of central Oregon (called the Oregon Transect). Sensors mounted on six different aircraft have acquired data over the Oregon Transect in support of the OTTER project.

Angelici, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1996

Durability and Damage Tolerance of High Temperature Polymeric Composites

Modern durability and damage tolerance predictions for composite material systems rely on accurate estimates of the local stress and material states for each of the constituents, as well as the manner in which the constituents interact. In this work, an number of approaches to estimating the stress states and interactions are developed. First, an elasticity solution is presented for the problem of a penny-shaped crack in an N-phase composite material system opened by a prescribed normal pressure. The stress state around such a crack is then used to estimate the stress concentrations due to adjacent fiber fractures in composite materials. The resulting stress concentrations are then used to estimate the tensile strength of the composite. The predicted results are compared with experimental values. In addition, a cumulative damage model for fatigue is presented. Modifications to the model are made to include the effects of variable amplitude loading. These modifications are based upon the use of remaining strength as a damage metric and the definition of an equivalent generalized time. The model is initially validated using results from the literature. Also, experimental data from APC-2 laminates and IM7/K3B laminates are used in the model. The use of such data for notched laminates requires the use of an effective hole size, which is calculated based upon strain distribution measurements. Measured remaining strengths after fatigue loading are compared with the predicted values for specimens fatigued at room temperature and 350 F (177 C).

Case, Scott W.↗

NASA NTRS2025

Localization of Ad-Hoc Lunar Constellations in Communication Failure Modes for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

As Lunar missions increase in complexity, inspired by NASA’s Artemis Program, they will require reliable and sufficient Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capability to support the upcoming Lunar users. The navigation service should also be compatible with the smaller platforms, like CubeSats, being sent by the public and private sectors. A non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation can provide PNT services on-demand using the non-dedicated swarm assets. Swarm members cooperatively and autonomously localize themselves with minimal interaction from Earth, freeing up valuable bandwidth and ground segment resources. The autonomous localization of Lunar constellations utilizes neighbor two-way intersatellite link (ISL) measurements in a distributed extended Kalman filter (DEKF) system to minimize operating costs. Because the decentralized Lunar PNT system relies on relay communication amongst the agents, network failures or loss of assets among ad-hoc Lunar constellations may impact localization performance. This study presents an evaluation of localization performance under increasing levels of network degradation. A simulation of an ad-hoc Lunar PNT swarm is augmented to include system faults and the impacts of intermittent and permanent failures on localization performance are evaluated. We investigate three potential causes of network degradation: single spacecraft loss, multiple spacecraft loss, and antenna failure. The numerical assessments from the simulation show that the LPNT system under study, based on an autonomous decentralized concept of operation, is highly robust and resilient to communication failures. Minor faults, such as single spacecraft loss, solar interference, technical malfunctions, message delays, and antenna outages, have minimal impact on state estimation, with only a 4.47% and 3.75% degradation in median position error for assets and a representative ground user, respectively, compared to an ideal communication scenario. However, major faults, such as hardware failures or meteor strikes leading to the loss of multiple spacecrafts, are more concerning. The permanent loss of three spacecraft results in a more severe performance degradation, with median position error increasing by 23.3% for assets and 11.7% for a representative ground user, despite the Lunar PNT system remaining functional.

Yeji Kim↗

NASA NTRS2011

Dynamical Model for the Zodiacal Cloud and Sporadic Meteors

The solar system is dusty, and would become dustier over time as asteroids collide and comets disintegrate, except that small debris particles in interplanetary space do not last long. They can be ejected from the solar system by Jupiter, thermally destroyed near the Sun, or physically disrupted by collisions. Also, some are swept by the Earth (and other planets), producing meteors. Here we develop a dynamical model for the solar system meteoroids and use it to explain meteor radar observations. We find that the Jupiter Family Comets (JFCs) are the main source of the prominent concentrations of meteors arriving to the Earth from the helion and antihelion directions. To match the radiant and orbit distributions, as measured by the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) and Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR), our model implies that comets, and JFCs in particular, must frequently disintegrate when reaching orbits with low perihelion distance. Also, the collisional lifetimes of millimeter particles may be longer (approx. > 10(exp 5) yr at 1 AU) than postulated in the standard collisional models (approx 10(exp 4) yr at 1 AU), perhaps because these chondrule-sized meteoroids are stronger than thought before. Using observations of the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) to calibrate the model, we find that the total cross section and mass of small meteoroids in the inner solar system are (1.7-3.5) 10(exp 11) sq km and approx. 4 10(exp 19) g, respectively, in a good agreement with previous studies. The mass input required to keep the Zodiacal Cloud (ZC) in a steady state is estimated to be approx. 10(exp 4)-10(exp 5) kg/s. The input is up to approx 10 times larger than found previously, mainly because particles released closer to the Sun have shorter collisional lifetimes, and need to be supplied at a faster rate. The total mass accreted by the Earth in particles between diameters D = 5 micron and 1 cm is found to be approx 15,000 tons/yr (factor of 2 uncertainty), which is a large share of the accretion flux measured by the Long Term Duration Facility (LDEF). Majority of JFC particles plunge into the upper atmosphere at <15 km/s speeds, should survive the atmospheric entry, and can produce micrometeorite falls. This could explain the compositional similarity of samples collected in the Antarctic ice and stratosphere, and those brought from comet Wild 2 by the Stardust spacecraft. Meteor radars such as CMOR and AMOR see only a fraction of the accretion flux (approx 1- 10% and approx 10-50%, respectively), because small particles impacting at low speeds produce ionization levels that are below these radars detection capabilities.

Nesvorny, David↗

DOE OSTI2025

Single-shot in-line x-ray phase-contrast imaging of void-shockwave interactions in fusion energy materials

Recent breakthroughs in nuclear fusion, specifically the report of reactions exceeding scientific breakeven at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), highlight the potential of inertial fusion energy (IFE) as a sustainable and virtually limitless energy source. However, further progress in IFE requires characterization of defects in ablator materials and how they affect fuel capsule compression. Voids within the ablator can degrade energy yield, but their impact on the density distribution has primarily been studied through simulations, with limited high-resolution experimental validation. To address this, we used the x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) at the matter in extreme conditions (MECs) instrument at the Linac coherent light source (LCLS) to capture 2D x-ray phase-contrast (XPC) images of a void-bearing sample with a composition similar to inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablators. By driving a compressive shockwave through the sample using MEC's long-pulse laser system, we analyzed how voids influence shockwave propagation and density distribution during compression. To quantify this impact, we extracted phase information using two phase retrieval algorithms. First, we applied the contrast transfer function (CTF) method, paired with Tikhonov regularization and a fast optimization approach to generate an initial phase estimate. We then refined the result using a projected gradient descent (PGD) method that works directly with the sample's refractive index. Comparing these results with radiation adaptive grid Eulerian (xRAGE) radiation hydrodynamic simulations enables identification of model validation needs or improvements. By calculating phase maps in situ, it becomes possible to reconstruct areal density maps, improving understanding of laser-capsule interactions and advancing IFE research.

Hodge, D. S. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, ↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing degraded visual environments with scanning lenses to improve contrast recovery

Atmospheric aerosols, such as fog and smoke, degrade optical signals via the scattering and absorption of light, making it difficult to recover information from the surrounding environment. Here, we present a technique that measures the angular distribution of light in scattering environments to help recover these degraded optical signals. This is done by passing a collimated beam through the aerosol environment and collecting the scattered and unscattered light with an f-theta scan lens. The lens transforms the angular distribution of the scattered light into the linear domain, mapping the collected light onto a detector. The measured angular scattering distribution is then used to estimate the point spread function of the environment at an arbitrary stand-off distance. This point spread function can be used to deconvolve images blurred by the aerosol environment in which the angular scattering distribution was initially measured. With this approach, we demonstrate improvements in the effective resolution of deblurred images up to 26% over a 120-cm stand-off distance. Experimentation was performed in the Sandia National Laboratories tabletop fog chamber, a platform that generates aerosol environments analogous to real-world fogs. We intend to leverage this technique in future work to develop a low-SWaP system for the in situ characterization of aerosol environments.

Aerosols↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on 25 August 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on 29 August 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 in. (150 cm) of rain over a 5-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar dataset to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period 25–29 August2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared with the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed drop size distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value ofa50.015 andb50.600 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David Billings Wolff↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Dual-Polarization Radar Estimates of Extreme Rainfall During Hurricane Harvey

Hurricane Harvey hit the Texas Gulf Coast as a major hurricane on August 25, 2017 before exiting the state as a tropical storm on August 29, 2017. Left in its wake was historic flooding, with some locations measuring more than 60 inches of rain over a five-day period. The WSR-88D radar (KHGX) maintained operations for the entirety of the event. Rain gauge data from the Harris County Flood Warning System (HCFWS) was used for validation with the full radar data set to retrieve daily and event-total precipitation estimates for the period August 25-29, 2017. The KHGX precipitation estimates were then compared to the HCFWS gauges. Three different hybrid polarimetric rainfall retrievals were used, along with attenuation-based retrieval that employs the radar-observed differential propagation. An advantage of using a attenuation-based retrieval is its immunity to partial beam blockage and calibration errors in reflectivity and differential reflectivity. All of the retrievals are susceptible to changes in the observed Drop Size Distribution (DSD). No in situ DSD data were available over the study area, so changes in the DSD were interpreted by examining the observed radar data. We examined the parameter space of two key values in the attenuation retrieval to test the sensitivity of the rain retrieval. Selecting a value of α=0.015 and β=0.600 and β=0.625 provided the best overall results, relative to the gauges, but more work needs to be done to develop an automated technique to account for changes in the ambient DSD.

David B Wolff↗

NASA NTRS2013

The GLAS Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Precision Orbit Determination (POD)

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) was the sole instrument for NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) laser altimetry mission. The primary purpose of the ICESat mission was to make ice sheet elevation measurements of the polar regions. Additional goals were to measure the global distribution of clouds and aerosols and to map sea ice, land topography and vegetation. ICESat was the benchmark Earth Observing System (EOS) mission to be used to determine the mass balance of the ice sheets, as well as for providing cloud property information, especially for stratospheric clouds common over polar areas. The GLAS instrument operated from 2003 to 2009 and provided multi-year elevation data needed to determine changes in sea ice freeboard, land topography and vegetation around the globe, in addition to elevation changes of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This document describes the Precision Orbit Determination (POD) algorithm for the ICESat mission. The problem of determining an accurate ephemeris for an orbiting satellite involves estimating the position and velocity of the satellite from a sequence of observations. The ICESatGLAS elevation measurements must be very accurately geolocated, combining precise orbit information with precision pointing information. The ICESat mission POD requirement states that the position of the instrument should be determined with an accuracy of 5 and 20 cm (1-s) in radial and horizontal components, respectively, to meet the science requirements for determining elevation change.

Rim, Hyung Jin↗

NASA NTRS2015

Coupled Inertial Navigation and Flush Air Data Sensing Algorithm for Atmosphere Estimation

This paper describes an algorithm for atmospheric state estimation that is based on a coupling between inertial navigation and flush air data sensing pressure measurements. In this approach, the full navigation state is used in the atmospheric estimation algorithm along with the pressure measurements and a model of the surface pressure distribution to directly estimate atmospheric winds and density using a nonlinear weighted least-squares algorithm. The approach uses a high fidelity model of atmosphere stored in table-look-up form, along with simplified models of that are propagated along the trajectory within the algorithm to provide prior estimates and covariances to aid the air data state solution. Thus, the method is essentially a reduced-order Kalman filter in which the inertial states are taken from the navigation solution and atmospheric states are estimated in the filter. The algorithm is applied to data from the Mars Science Laboratory entry, descent, and landing from August 2012. Reasonable estimates of the atmosphere and winds are produced by the algorithm. The observability of winds along the trajectory are examined using an index based on the discrete-time observability Gramian and the pressure measurement sensitivity matrix. The results indicate that bank reversals are responsible for adding information content to the system. The algorithm is then applied to the design of the pressure measurement system for the Mars 2020 mission. The pressure port layout is optimized to maximize the observability of atmospheric states along the trajectory. Linear covariance analysis is performed to assess estimator performance for a given pressure measurement uncertainty. The results indicate that the new tightly-coupled estimator can produce enhanced estimates of atmospheric states when compared with existing algorithms.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Transient Thermal Analyses of Passive Systems on SCEPTOR X-57

As efficiency, emissions, and noise become increasingly prominent considerations in aircraft design, turning to an electric propulsion system is a desirable solution. Achieving the intended benefits of distributed electric propulsion (DEP) requires thermally demanding high power systems, presenting a different set of challenges compared to traditional aircraft propulsion. The embedded nature of these heat sources often preclude the use of traditional thermal management systems in order to maximize performance, with less opportunity to exhaust waste heat to the surrounding environment. This paper summarizes the thermal analyses of X-57 vehicle subsystems that don't employ externally air-cooled heat sinks. The high-power battery, wires, high-lift motors, and aircraft outer surface are subjected to heat loads with stringent thermal constraints. The temperature of these components are tracked transiently, since they never reach a steady-state equilibrium. Through analysis and testing, this report demonstrates that properly characterizing the material properties is key to accurately modeling peak temperature of these systems, with less concern for spatial thermal gradients. Experimentally validated results show the thermal profile of these systems can be sufficiently estimated using reduced order approximations.

Thermal Analyses↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Powered By ERAD [Slides]

Energy Resilience Analysis for Distribution Power System (ERAD) is a free, open-source Python toolkit for estimating the energy and service impacts of hazards like earthquakes and flooding. It uses a graph-based approach to capture high resolution connectivity among the grid, critical services, and customers and rapidly compute household level metrics and aggregated statistics across large distribution systems. It uses asset fragility curves that relate hazard severity to survival probability for power system equipment including cables, transformers, substations, etc. The tool is designed to be modular and extensible, allowing it to interface with third-party hazard simulators and integrate into broader resilience analysis workflows. ERAD enables researchers, students, communities, distribution utilities, and other stakeholders to understand hazard impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different programs to improve energy resilience. The webinar was hosted by NLR researcher Aadil Latif.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling for Inverse Uncertainty Quantification of system thermal-hydraulics code using critical flow experimental data

The best estimate plus uncertainty methodology in nuclear system thermal-hydraulic studies necessitates a comprehensive understanding of uncertainties in system code predictions. The forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) process involves the propagation of input uncertainties through the computational models to obtain uncertainties in the outputs. To this end, achieving an accurate estimation of input uncertainties is important, which is the focus of inverse UQ (IUQ). Traditionally, research in Bayesian IUQ within the nuclear engineering domain has largely relied on single-level Bayesian inference. While being effective for relatively small datasets, this approach encounters limitations for cases with large datasets. The use of a single-level model may prove inefficient, as the resultant posterior distributions can significantly differ when distinct subsets of data are employed. To address this issue, we employ an hierarchical Bayesian model for IUQ. Furthermore, this approach involves organizing observations into different groups based on the test conditions, thereby accommodating varying calibration parameters across these distinct groups. In this study, we developed and implemented a hierarchical Bayesian IUQ method to consider the grouping effect of critical flow measurement data from various geometries. Comparing the outcomes of IUQ under different selections of test data using hierarchical Bayesian IUQ against those obtained from single-level Bayesian IUQ, the forward propagation of hierarchical Bayesian IUQ results demonstrates a notably improved agreement with the experimental data.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

3-D Geological Modeling for Numerical Flow Simulation Studies of Gas Hydrate Reservoirs at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 Pad in the Prudhoe Bay Unit on the Alaska North Slope

Accurate reservoir evaluation requires reliable three-dimensional (3-D) geological models. Here, this study conducted 3-D geological modeling for numerical flow simulation of the B1 sand gas hydrate reservoir at the Kuparuk State 7-11-12 pad, Prudhoe Bay Unit, Alaska North Slope. The model integrates well logs, core, and seismic data to address spatial heterogeneity in geological structures and reservoir properties. Two modeling types were performed: structural framework modeling and petrophysical property modeling. For structural framework modeling, seismic data and well log markers were used to reproduce subsurface structures characterized by a normal fault system. A volume-based modeling algorithm and stair-stepping grid were applied. The resulting 3-D model comprised 2,640,000 grid cells across 264 layers, including seven fault grids. For petrophysical property modeling, total porosity was initially modeled using sequential Gaussian simulation with collocated cokriging. To reproduce the upward coarsening of the B1 sand, upscaled log-derived total porosity and a three-dimensional (3-D) trend depicting total porosity variation were used as primary and secondary data, respectively. Gas hydrate saturation distribution was modeled similarly, with secondary data from estimated porosity distribution and seismic-derived acoustic impedance map enhancing accuracy. Results indicate higher gas hydrate saturation in the upper part of the B1 sand and areas with higher acoustic impedance. Intrinsic permeability was modeled from the total porosity and clay-bound water volume, and effective permeability was derived from the gas hydrate saturation and intrinsic permeability distributions based on the “Tokyo model”. Effective permeability distributions were influenced by the total porosity, gas hydrate saturation, and intrinsic permeability. Within the same layer, higher gas hydrate saturation leads to decreased effective permeability. In total, 100 sets of multiple scenarios were prepared, providing input data for dynamic flow simulations to evaluate the effects of lateral heterogeneity in reservoir properties and the hydraulic characteristics of faults on production behavior for preassessment before the long-term production test.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

The X-56A aircraft is a remotely-piloted aircraft with flutter modes intentionally designed into the flight envelope. The X-56A program must demonstrate flight control while suppressing all unstable modes. A previous X-56A model study demonstrated a distributed-sensing-based active shape and active flutter suppression controller. The controller relies on an estimator which is sensitive to bias. This estimator is improved herein, and a real-time robust estimator is derived and demonstrated on 1530 fiber optic sensors. It is shown in simulation that the estimator can simultaneously reject 230 worst-case fiber optic sensor failures automatically. These sensor failures include locations with high leverage (or importance). To reduce the impact of leverage outliers, concentration based on a Mahalanobis trim criterion is introduced. A redescending M-estimator with Tukey bisquare weights is used to improve location and dispersion estimates within each concentration step in the presence of asymmetry (or leverage). A dynamic simulation is used to compare the concentrated robust estimator to a state-of-the-art real-time robust multivariate estimator. The estimators support a previously-derived mu-optimal shape controller. It is found that during the failure scenario, the concentrated modal estimator keeps the system stable.

Modal Filtering↗

NASA NTRS2016

Robust Modal Filtering and Control of the X-56A Model with Simulated Fiber Optic Sensor Failures

Modal Filtering↗