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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The direct and indirect effects of copper on vector-borne disease dynamics

Metal pollution is a growing concern that affects the health of humans and animals globally. Copper is an essential insect micronutrient required for respiration, pigmentation and oxidative stress protection but can also act as a potentially toxic trace element. While several studies have focused on the negative fitness effects of copper on the aquatic larvae of mosquitoes, the effects of larval copper exposure on adult mosquito fitness (i.e., survival and fecundity) and their ability to transmit parasites (i.e., vector competence) remains unclear. Here, using a well-studied model vector-parasite system, the mosquito Aedes aegypti and parasite Dirofilaria immitis, we show that sublethal copper exposure in larval mosquitoes alters adult female fecundity and vector competence. Specifically, mosquitoes exposed to copper had a hormetic fecundity response and mosquitoes exposed to 600 μg/L of copper had significantly fewer infective parasite larvae than control mosquitoes not exposed to copper. Therefore, exposure of mosquito larvae to copper levels far below EPA-mandated safe drinking water limits (1300 μg/L) can impact vector-borne disease dynamics not only by reducing mosquito abundance (through increased larval mortality), but also by reducing parasite transmission risk. Our results also demonstrated that larval copper is retained through metamorphosis to adulthood in mosquitoes, indicating that these insects could transfer copper from aquatic to terrestrial foodwebs, especially in urban areas where they are abundant. To our knowledge this is the first study to directly link metal exposure with vector competence (i.e., ability to transmit parasites) in any vector-parasite system. Additionally, it also demonstrates unequivocally that mosquitoes can transfer contaminants from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems. These results have broad implications for public health because they directly linking contaminants and vector-borne disease dynamics, as well as linking mosquitoes and contaminant dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The geographies, typologies, and trends of community-based organizations for solar energy in the United States

Community-based organizations (CBOs)1 play an important role in developing solar energy in low- and moderate-income (LMI) communities. This article shares the perspectives of CBO leaders in LMI communities, identifies and addresses solar information gaps, and provides recommendations State Energy Agencies and other government leaders can use to better involve CBOs in solar program initiatives. Using semi-structured interviews and focus groups with CBOs from across the United States (US) we develop typologies of CBO structure and function, and determine the primary motivations, challenges, opportunities, and communication barriers CBOs face. We explore the correlation between key typologies such as tenure, staff capacity, population served, organizational structure, and region with the organizational activities performed by solar-related CBOs. CBOs operate in disparate regional political and economic ecologies. Our findings suggest strategies for states to support their engagement in solar-related endeavors, particularly with respect to the dissemination of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Inflation Reduction Act, and the EPA Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund: Solar for All. Developing policies that encourage CBOs to enter the solar training and installation domains, alongside targeted grants and capacity-building initiatives can help maximize community benefits. Furthermore, states can additionally contribute to the positive trajectory and collaboration between state agencies and CBOs in advancing solar energy adoption by fostering a supportive environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combustion dynamics of crude and upgraded Thermal DeOxygenation oils in a compression ignition engine

Thermal DeOxygenation (TDO) is a robust thermochemical conversion scheme to produce hydrocarbons from biomass feedstock. The process targets the carbohydrate fraction of biomass to yield a broad mixture of primarily aromatic hydrocarbons within a boiling point range of 348–798 K with low oxygen content (<4 wt%). The resulting materials are amenable to traditional hydrotreating and distillation processes with approximately 70% by mass in the distillate fuel range. The simple conversion scheme combined with commercially viable upgrading routes makes TDO oils a feasible alternative fuel for transportation applications. Here this paper is the first systematic treatment of fit-for-purpose testing of TDO oils in a compression ignition engine. Blends of partially upgraded TDO oils (e.g. whole oil, distilled oil, hydrotreated oil and hydrotreated-distilled oil) are prepared with certified ultra-low sulfur diesel at 5%, 10%, 15% and 20% by volume. The resulting fuels are analyzed for fuel characteristics and combustion dynamics in an instrumented single-cylinder compression ignition engine. All fuel blends at 10% blend level by volume exhibited adequate engine performance. Hydrotreating of the oils is a necessary step to meet cetane number and EPA soot emissions requirements at 20% blend volume. Combined distillation and hydrotreatment meet or exceed all fuel specification and engine performance benchmarks. Partially upgraded TDO oils are suitable fuel options for compression ignition applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The composition of gases from a diffusion flame above longleaf pine needle fuel beds

The gas and tar composition of a diffusion flame from longleaf pine needles is currently poorly understood and more data are needed to fill in the gap between pyrolysis data and smoke plume data, thus improving physical and chemical modeling of wildland smoke formation. A pilot experiment to measure light gas and tar composition of such a flame is described for three flame regions: persistent flame (flame base), intermittent flame, and smoke plume. Flame gases from 24 experimental fires were collected in canisters and analyzed using EPA method TO-14A for CO 2 , CO, H 2 , CH 4 , and C 2 to C 7 hydrocarbon gases. Condensed gas (tar) samples were collected and analyzed using GC/MS. Other light gases were measured using FTIR spectroscopy. Results from compositional data analysis suggest significant differences in (relative) concentration of compounds detected in the three regions of the flame. Statistical tests for differences in flame zones were performed using the canister data: Concentration of hydrocarbons relative to CO and CO 2 decreased from the persistent flame zone above the pyrolyzing needles through the intermittent flame region into the flame-free plume. This was likely due to both chemical reactions (oxidation) occurring in the flame as well as the introduction of air into the flame/plume by entrainment.

Biomass↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sea-level rise and arsenic-rich soils: A toxic relationship

In the United States, dangerously high arsenic (As) levels have been found in drinking water wells in more than 25 states, potentially exposing 2.1 million people to drinking water high in As; a known carcinogen. The anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) is expected to alter soil biogeochemical and hydrological conditions, potentially impacting their ability to sequester As. In our study of coastal Wilmington, DE, an area projected to experience a 1-meter SLR by 2100, we examined the spatial distribution, speciation, and release possibilities of As due to SLR. To understand the complex dynamics at play, we employed a comprehensive approach, including bulk and micro X-ray absorption spectroscopy measurements, hydrological pattern evaluation, and macroscopic stirred-flow experiments. Further, our results suggest that introducing reducing and saline conditions can increase As release in both river water and seawater inundation scenarios, most likely due to ionic competition and the dissolution of As-bearing Fe/Mn oxides. Regardless of the salinity source, the released As concentrations consistently exceeded the EPA threshold for drinking water. Our results provide valuable insights for developing appropriate remedial and management strategies for this site and numerous others facing similar environmental challenges.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

An expert-driven literature review of “negative” chemicals for developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) in vitro assay evaluation

To date, approximately 200 chemicals have been tested in US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) or Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) guideline studies, leaving thousands of chemicals without traditional animal information on DNT hazard potential. To address this data gap, a battery of in vitro DNT new approach methodologies (NAMs) has been proposed. Evaluation of the performance of this battery will increase the confidence in its use to determine DNT chemical hazards. One approach to evaluate DNT NAM performance is to use a set of chemicals to evaluate sensitivity and specificity. Since a list of chemicals with potential evidence of in vivo DNT has been established, this study aims to develop a curated list of “negative” chemicals for inclusion in a “DNT NAM evaluation set”. A workflow, including a literature search followed by an expert-driven literature review, was used to systematically screen 39 chemicals for lack of DNT effect. Expert panel members evaluated the scientific robustness of relevant studies to inform chemical categorizations. Following review, the panel discussed each chemical and made categorical determinations of “Favorable”, “Not Favorable”, or “Indeterminate” reflecting acceptance, lack of suitability, or uncertainty given specific limitations and considerations, respectively. Further, the panel determined that 10, 22, and 7 chemicals met the criteria for “Favorable”, “Not Favorable”, and “Indeterminate”, for use as negatives in a DNT NAM evaluation set. Ultimately, this approach not only supports DNT NAM performance evaluation but also highlights challenges in identifying large numbers of negative DNT chemicals.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hazard-Based Model of Activity Generation Using Vehicle Trajectory Data

Travel behavior modeling suffers from lack of longitudinal data due to the high cost of procurement and difficulty with ensuring data quality. In the recent years ubiquitous data intercepted from social media, cell detail record, GPS traces are increasingly being explored to analyze human mobility. However, these data lack key demographic information which limits their use for developing causal models of traveler behavior. The primary contribution of the paper lies in using vehicle trajectory data from Ann Arbor along with multiple other data sources for developing a hazard-based activity generation model. The different category of data used in the analysis include (i) vehicle trajectory data (VTD), (ii) American Census Survey (ACS), (iii) land use data, (iv) household travel survey (HTS) data, and (v) smart location data from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Home and work are identified as the two most frequently visited locations from the VTD and validated against land use categories of the region. Next a random utility-based model is developed using HTS data to identify other activity purposes as a function of the polynomials of distance from home, activity duration and departure time. The developed model is then applied to identify the non-home activity purposes in the VTD. Demographic and accessibility information are appended to the VTD from ACS and smart location databases respectively. The fmal database is then used to develop a hazard-based activity generation model. (C) 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

activity generation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Waste management strategies for military-generated waste in the United States

Sustainable and energy efficient municipal solid waste (MSW) management is vital for the health and performance of deployed soldiers, as they play an important role in the safety and dignity of a country. As the United States targets net-zero carbon-free emission goals, research and development are essential to surpassing current practices for management of MSW at military installations, both at home and abroad. To achieve this, it is important to act upon and implement the policies and instructions set by government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Department of Defense (DoD). Understanding the composition of waste and disposal methods that are in use at military installations is a crucial step to success. Here, the authors show this through analyzed data from trusted sources, such as government agencies, reports, magazines, journals, and other publications on MSW management techniques. By defining these challenges, possible solutions can be better understood for improved management of MSW at military installations in the United States. Finally, an integrated approach with deployable units capable of waste-to-energy technology using waste reduction, diversion, and recycling strategies shows to be an effective pathway for MSW conversion into energy and other useful products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Environmental life cycle assessment of treatment and management strategies for food waste and sewage sludge

A consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) was utilized to compare the environmental impacts of food waste and sewage sludge management strategies. The strategies included a novel two-phase anaerobic digestion (AD) system and alternatives including landfill, waste-to-energy, composting, anaerobic membrane bioreactor, and conventional AD (wet continuous stirred-tank reactor [CSTR]). The co-management of food waste with sewage sludge was also considered for the two-phase AD system and for a conventional AD reactor. Further, a multidimensional LCA approach was taken, considering the five-midpoint impact categories of global warming, smog, human health particulate, acidification, and eutrophication estimated using the U.S. EPA Tool for the Reduction and Assessment of Chemical and Other Environmental Impacts. Co-management of food waste and sewage sludge using the novel two-phase AD system was shown to maximize energy recovery and had a net global warming benefit while reducing other environmental impacts compared with the alternative management strategies. It had similar relative environmental advantages across all categories as conventional AD, with the advantage of a smaller physical footprint. However, both approaches featured net environmental burdens when the background electric grid intensity fell below 0.25 kg CO 2 -eq kWh -1 , as could be expected in a decarbonized electric future. Upgrading the biogas produced from AD to renewable natural gas can displace the use of fossil natural gas for other non-electricity energy requirements that are difficult to decarbonize and may extend the time period of significant environmental benefits of utilizing AD for organic waste management. Treatment of the nutrient-rich supernatant generated by the novel two-phase AD system could be an obstacle for utilities with stringent nutrient discharge limits. Future research and full-scale implementation are needed to demonstrate the benefits of the two-phase AD system predicted through this analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selective Sorbent Design: CaS Aerogel for Rapid Remediation of Aqueous Pb (II)

Heavy metals are a persistent environmental problem due to their high toxicity, even at very low concentrations (parts per billion, ppb). The removal of such diluted heavy metals is challenging because of the competition the counterions (Ca 2+ , Na + , Mg 2+ , etc.) present in natural water bodies. The design of sorbents capable of removing ions below the action limit (15 ppb for Pb 2+ ) requires a strong driving force for selective uptake and rapid removal. In this work, we report the synthesis of porous CaS aerogels (surface area = 143.6 m 2 /g) by oxidative assembly of CaS nanoparticles and describe their use in selective Pb 2+ ion remediation from water. Despite the presence of amorphous CaCO 3 (up to 50 wt %) in the gel network, the gels demonstrated a capacity of 17.1 mmol Pb/g aerogel (3543 mg/g), and this could be augmented to 22.5 mmol Pb/g aerogel (4593 mg/g) by modifying the synthesis to reduce CaCO 3 content to ca. 15 wt %. Moreover, the selectivity of CaS aerogels toward Pb 2+ ions is high, as evidenced by little-to-no change in the distribution constant (K d ∼ 10 4 ) in the presence of competing ions (1 M) such as Na + , Mg 2+ , and Ca 2+ . During remediation with low concentrations (100 ppb) of Pb 2+ with CaS aerogels, the level of Pb 2+ dropped to 5.4 ppb (below the 15 ppb EPA limit) within 1 h with a 95.4% removal efficiency. In contrast to the CO 2 supercritically dried aerogels, lower surface area ambient dried gels (xerogels) only remove 40% of the lead ions from a 100 ppb solution, saturating within 1 h. The efficiency and rapidity of selective Pb 2+ uptake using CdS aerogels arise from a combination of a strong thermodynamic driving force for cation exchange (K eq = 2.5 × 10 27 ) and chemisorption along with favorable kinetics associated with the high surface area porous architecture. These results show that formation of high surface area metal chalcogenide aerogels by oxidative assembly to form nanocrystalline architectures, as previously demonstrated for II−VI and IV−VI semiconductors, can be extended to the more highly ionic alkaline earth sulfides.

Aerogels↗
DOE OSTI2022

In-Use Passenger Vessel Emission Rates of Black Carbon and Nitrogen Oxides

This study quantified emission factors of black carbon (BC) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ) from 21 engines on in-use excursion vessels and ferries operating in California's San Francisco Bay, including EPA uncertified and Tier 1-4 engines and across engine operating modes. On average, ~60 fuel-based emission factors per engine were measured using a novel combination of exhaust plume capture combined with GPS location and speed data that can be more readily deployed than common portable emissions measurement systems. Here, BC and NO x emission factors (g kg -1 ) were lowest and least variable during fast cruising and highest during maneuvering and docked operation. Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) reduced NO x emissions by ~80% when functional. However, elevated NO x emissions that exceeded corresponding exhaust standards were measured on most Tier 3 and Tier 4 engines sampled, which can be attributed to inactive SCR during frequent low engine load operation. In contrast, BC emissions exceeded the PM emission standard for only one engine, and SCR systems employed as a NO x reduction technology also reduced emitted BC. Using these measured emission factors to compare commuting options, we show that the CO 2 -equivalent emissions per passenger-kilometer are comparable when commuting by car and ferry, but BC and NO x emissions can be several to more than ten times larger when commuting by ferry.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Load-Shifting Strategies for Cost-Effective Emission Reductions at Wastewater Facilities

Significant hourly variation in the carbon intensity of electricity supplied to wastewater facilities introduces an opportunity to lower emissions by shifting the timing of their energy demand. This shift could be accomplished by storing wastewater, biogas from sludge digestion, or electricity from on-site biogas generation. However, the life cycle emissions and cost implications of these options are not clear. Here, we present a multiobjective optimization framework for comparing cost- and emission-minimizing load-shifting strategies at a California case study facility with a relatively low carbon intensity grid and high spread in peak and off-peak electricity prices. We evaluate cost and emission trade-offs from the optimal flexible operation of both existing infrastructure and optimally sized energy flexibility upgrades. We estimate energy-related emission reductions of up to 9.0% with flexible operation of existing infrastructure and up to 16.8% with optimally sized storage upgrades. Only a fraction of these potential savings are realized under actual industrial energy tariffs and the EPA’s recommended social cost of carbon. Energy flexibility may hold promise as a short-term emission-saving solution for the wastewater sector, but the extent of savings is heavily dependent on the cost of carbon, electricity tariffs, and emission intensity of the regional electricity grid.

climate↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chespa: Streamlining Expansive Chemical Space Evaluation of Molecular Sets

Thousands of chemical properties can be calculated for small molecules, which can be used to place the molecules within the context of a broader “chemical space.” These definitions vary based on compounds of interest and the goals for the given chemical space definition. Here, we introduce a customizable (i.e., modular) Python module, chespa, built to easily assess different chemical space definitions through cluster-ing of compounds in these spaces and visualize trends of these clusters. To demonstrate this, chespa currently streamlines prediction of vari-ous molecule descriptors (predicted chemical properties, molecular substructures, AI-based chemical space, and chemical class ontology) in order to test 6 different chemical space definitions. Furthermore, we investigated how these varying definitions trend with mass spectrometry (MS)-based observability, i.e., the ability of a molecule to be observed with MS (e.g., as a function of the molecule ionizability), using an example data set from the U.S. EPA's Non-Targeted Analysis Collaborative Trial (ENTACT), where blinded samples had been analyzed previously, providing 1,398 data points. Improved understanding of observability would offer many advantages in small molecule identifica-tion, such as (i) a priori selection of experimental conditions based on suspected sample composition, (ii) the ability to reduce the number of candidate structures during compound identification by removing those less likely to ionize, and, in turn, (iii) a reduced false discovery rate and increased confidence in identifications. Factors controlling observability are not fully understood, making prediction of this property non-trivial and a prime candidate for chemical space analysis. Chespa is available at github.com/pnnl/chespa.

Nunez, Jamie↗
DOE OSTI2021

Templated Mesoporous Silica Outer Shell for Controlled Silver Release of a Magnetically Recoverable and Reusable Nanocomposite for Water Disinfection

Here, we encapsulated Fe 3 O 4 @SiO 2 @Ag (MS-Ag), a bifunctional magnetic silver core–shell structure, with an outer mesoporous silica (mS) shell to form an Fe 3 O 4 @SiO 2 @ 2 Ag@mSiO 2 (MS-Ag-mS) nanocomposite using a cationic CTAB (cetyltrimethylammonium bromide) micelle templating strategy. The mS shell acts as protection to slow down the oxidation and detachment of the AgNPs and incorporates channels to control the release of antimicrobial Ag + ions. Results of TEM, STEM, HRSEM, EDS, BET, and FTIR showed the successful formation of the mS shells on MS-Ag aggregates 50–400 nm in size with highly uniform pores ~4 nm in diameter that were separated by silica walls ~2 nm thick. Additionally, the mS shell thickness was tuned to demonstrate controlled Ag + release; an increase in shell thickness resulted in an increased path length required for Ag + ions to travel out of the shell, reducing MS-Ag-mS’ ability to inhibit E. coli growth as illustrated by the inhibition zone results. Through a shaking test, the MS-Ag-mS nanocomposite was shown to eradicate 99.99+% of a suspension of E. coli at 1 × 10 6 CFU/mL with a silver release of less than 0.1 ppb, well under the EPA recommendation of 0.1 ppm. This high biocidal efficiency with minimal silver leach is ascribed to the nanocomposite’s mS shell surface characteristics, including having hydroxyl groups and possessing a high degree of structural periodicity at the nanoscale or “smoothness” that encourages association with bacteria and retains high Ag + concentration on its surface and in its close proximity. Furthermore, the nanocomposite demonstrated consistent antimicrobial performance and silver release levels over multiple repeated uses (after being recovered magnetically because of the oxidation-resistant silica-coated magnetic Fe 3 O 4 core). It also proved effective at killing all microbes from Long Island Sound surface water. The described MS-Ag-mS nanocomposite is highly synergistic, easy to prepare, and readily recoverable and reusable and offers structural tunability affecting the bioavailability of Ag + , making it excellent for water disinfection that will find wide applications.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

DeSelenator: A Se-Removal Process for Environmental Decontamination of Wastewaters from Coal-Burning Power Plants

Selenium may become a toxic contaminant of freshwater systems when released into the environment through industrial wastewaters from mining, coal-burning power plants, or oil refining. Efficient and cost-effective Se-removal technologies are therefore necessary to reduce Se concentrations in these wastewaters to below the regulatory discharge limits. In this study, we have demonstrated an effective process that removes Se, mostly as selenate anions, from wastewaters generated by coal-burning power plants. This process, dubbed DeSelenator, leverages the high concentration of sulfate relative to selenate in the wastewater and the propensity of these oxyanions to cocrystallize with benzene-bis-iminoguanidinium (BBIG) cations into extremely insoluble salts (on par with BaSO 4 ). The SO 4 2− /SeO 4 2− cocrystallization with BBIG removes over 90% of S and Se from the wastewater. Following removal of the precipitate by filtration, the filtrate is passed over an anion-exchange resin that further reduces selenium concentration to 5 ppb, the EPA’s regulatory limit for freshwater systems. Finally, the effluent is passed over an activated carbon column, which removes 99.8% of the residual BBIG ligand remaining after crystallization, allowing for the safe discharge of the treated water into the environment. The Se-removal process was first optimized in the lab at the bench scale and then tested in the field at the Tennessee Valley Authority’s Bull Run coal-burning power plant. A technoeconomic assessment found the cost of water treatment with DeSelenator is on par with that of the active biological method, which is currently considered a state-of-the-art Se-removal technology.

anions↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2026

Source-Resolved Inversion of Elemental Carbon Emissions in California Using Log-Space Bayesian Inference

Elemental carbon (EC), operationally quantified by thermal-optical analysis, is widely used as a proxy for black carbon (BC) relevant to short-term climate forcing and public health. Current EC emission inventories remain highly uncertain, with persistent discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down estimates. In this study, we develop a source-resolved, log-space Bayesian inversion framework applied to estimate California’s statewide EC emissions in 2019. By integrating surface EC measurements from the EPA’s Air Quality System network with high-resolution source contributions simulated by a chemical transport model, we identify a one-third underestimation in the existing statewide EC inventory, requiring an increase of the total from a prior of 8.58 [5.49–13.75] Gg year–1 to a posterior estimate of 12.78 [10.71–15.37] Gg year–1. This discrepancy is primarily driven by substantial underestimations in the power and industrial and off-road mobile sectors. Furthermore, population-weighted exposure analysis reveals a marked sectoral divergence between emission mass and health burden: off-road mobile sources dominate both emissions and exposure, accounting for 31% of statewide exposure, while residential wood combustion contributes 26% of total exposure despite comprising only 19% of total emissions, due to its source proximity to population. These findings underscore the need to update sector-specific EC speciation profiles and demonstrate that mitigation strategies targeting off-road mobile sources and residential wood combustion are critical for reducing EC-related health impacts in California.

Zhang, Jie↗