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A New ENSO Index Derived from Satellite Measurements of Column Ozone

Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their difference. This differencing yields a self-calibrating ENSO index which is independent of individual instrument calibration offsets and drifts in measurements over the long record. The combined Aura OMI and MLS ozone data confirm that zonal variability in total column ozone in the tropics caused by ENSO events lies almost entirely in the troposphere. As a result, the OEI can be derived directly from total column ozone instead of tropospheric column ozone. For clear-sky ozone measurements a +1K change in Nino 3.4 index corresponds to +2.9 Dobson Unit (DU) change in the OEI, while a +1 hPa change in SOI coincides with a -1.7DU change in the OEI. For ozone measurements under all cloud conditions these numbers are +2.4DU and -1.4 DU, respectively. As an ENSO index based upon ozone, it is potentially useful in evaluating climate models predicting long term changes in ozone and other trace gases.

Ziemke, J. R.↗

Tropical Cyclogenesis in a Tropical Wave Critical Layer: Easterly Waves

The development of tropical depressions within tropical waves over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific is usually preceded by a "surface low along the wave" as if to suggest a hybrid wave-vortex structure in which flow streamlines not only undulate with the waves, but form a closed circulation in the lower troposphere surrounding the low. This structure, equatorward of the easterly jet axis, is identified herein as the familiar critical layer of waves in shear flow, a flow configuration which arguably provides the simplest conceptual framework for tropical cyclogenesis resulting from tropical waves, their interaction with the mean flow, and with diabatic processes associated with deep moist convection. The recirculating Kelvin cat's eye within the critical layer represents a sweet spot for tropical cyclogenesis in which a proto-vortex may form and grow within its parent wave. A common location for storm development is given by the intersection of the wave's critical latitude and trough axis at the center of the cat's eye, with analyzed vorticity centroid nearby. The wave and vortex live together for a time, and initially propagate at approximately the same speed. In most cases this coupled propagation continues for a few days after a tropical depression is identified. For easterly waves, as the name suggests, the propagation is westward. It is shown that in order to visualize optimally the associated Lagrangian motions, one should view the flow streamlines, or stream function, in a frame of reference translating horizontally with the phase propagation of the parent wave. In this co-moving frame, streamlines are approximately equivalent to particle trajectories. The closed circulation is quasi-stationary, and a dividing streamline separates air within the cat's eye from air outside.

Dunkerton, T. J.↗

Coarse, Intermediate and High Resolution Numerical Simulations of the Transition of a Tropical Wave Critical Layer to a Tropical Storm

Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

Montgomery, M. T.↗

Upper-Ocean Heat Balance Processes and the Walker Circulation in CMIP5 Model Projections

Considerable uncertainty remains as to the importance of mechanisms governing decadal and longer variability of the Walker Circulation, its connection to the tropical climate system, and prospects for tropical climate change in the face of anthropogenic forcing. Most contemporary climate models suggest that in response to elevated CO2 and a warmer but more stratified atmosphere, the required upward mass flux in tropical convection will diminish along with the Walker component of the tropical mean circulation as well. Alternatively, there is also evidence to suggest that the shoaling and increased vertical stratification of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific will enable a muted SST increase there-- preserving or even enhancing some of the dynamical forcing for the Walker cell flow. Over the past decade there have been observational indications of an acceleration in near-surface easterlies, a strengthened Pacific zonal SST gradient, and globally-teleconnected dislocations in precipitation. But is this evidence in support of an ocean dynamical thermostat process posited to accompany anthropogenic forcing, or just residual decadal fluctuations associated with variations in warm and cold ENSO events and other stochastic forcing? From a modeling perspective we try to make headway on this question by examining zonal variations in surface energy fluxes and dynamics governing tropical upper ocean heat content evolution in the WCRP CMIP5 model projections. There is some diversity among model simulations; for example, the CCSM4 indicates net ocean warming over the IndoPacific region while the CSIRO model concentrates separate warming responses over the central Pacific and Indian Ocean regions. The models, as with observations, demonstrate strong local coupling between variations in column water vapor, downward surface longwave radiation and SST; but the spatial patterns of changes in the sign of this relationship differ among models and, for models as a whole, with observations. Our analysis focuses initially on probing the inter-model differences in energy fluxes / transports and Walker Circulation response to forcing. We then attempt to identify statistically the El Nino- / La Nina-related ocean heat content variability unique to each model and regress out the associated energy flux, ocean heat transport and Walker response on these shorter time scales for comparison to that of the anthropogenic signals.

Robertson, F. R.↗

Relationships between the Raindrop Size Distribution and Properties of the Environment and Clouds Inferred from TRMM

Variability in the raindrop sized distribution (DSD) has long been recognized as a source of uncertainty in relationships between radar reflectivity Z and rain rate R. In this study, we analyze DSD retrievals from two years of data gathered by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and processed with a combined radar-radiometer retrieval algorithm over the global oceans equatorward of 35◦. Numerous variables describing properties of each reflectivity profile, large-scale organization, and the background environment are examined for relationships to the reflectivity-normalized median drop diameter, epsilonDSD. In general, we find that higher freezing levels and relative humidities are associated with smaller epsilonDSD. Within a given environment, the mesoscale organization of precipitation and the vertical profile of reflectivity are associated with DSD characteristics. In the tropics, the smallest epsilonDSD values are found in large but shallow convective systems, where warm rain formation processes are thought to be predominant, whereas larger sizes are found in the stratiform regions of organized deep convection. In the extratropics, the largest epsilonDSD values are found in the scattered convection that occurs when cold, dry continental air moves over the much warmer ocean after the passage of a cold front. The geographical distribution of the retrieved DSDs is consistent with many of the observed regional Z−R relationships found in the literature as well as discrepancies between the TRMM radar-only and radiometer-only precipitation products. In particular, mid-latitude and tropical regions near land tend to have larger drops for a given reflectivity, whereas the smallest drops are found in the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone.

raindrop size distribution↗

Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) Ozone Climatology (2005-2009): Tropospheric and Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) Profiles with Comparisons to Omi-based Ozone Products

We present a regional and seasonal climatology of SHADOZ ozone profiles in the troposphere and tropical tropopause layer (TTL) based on measurements taken during the first five years of Aura, 2005-2009, when new stations joined the network at Hanoi, Vietnam; Hilo, Hawaii; Alajuela Heredia, Costa Rica; Cotonou, Benin. In all, 15 stations operated during that period. A west-to-east progression of decreasing convective influence and increasing pollution leads to distinct tropospheric ozone profiles in three regions: (1) western Pacific eastern Indian Ocean; (2) equatorial Americas (San Cristobal, Alajuela, Paramaribo); (3) Atlantic and Africa. Comparisons in total ozone column from soundings, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI, on Aura, 2004-) satellite and ground-based instrumentation are presented. Most stations show better agreement with OMI than they did for EPTOMS comparisons (1998-2004; Earth-ProbeTotal Ozone Mapping Spectrometer), partly due to a revised above-burst ozone climatology. Possible station biases in the stratospheric segment of the ozone measurement noted in the first 7 years of SHADOZ ozone profiles are re-examined. High stratospheric bias observed during the TOMS period appears to persist at one station. Comparisons of SHADOZ tropospheric ozone and the daily Trajectory-enhanced Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TTOR) product (based on OMIMLS) show that the satellite-derived column amount averages 25 low. Correlations between TTOR and the SHADOZ sondes are quite good (typical r2 0.5-0.8), however, which may account for why some published residual-based OMI products capture tropospheric interannual variability fairly realistically. On the other hand, no clear explanations emerge for why TTOR-sonde discrepancies vary over a wide range at most SHADOZ sites.

gravity waves↗

Estimating Climatological Bias Errors for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

A procedure is described to estimate bias errors for mean precipitation by using multiple estimates from different algorithms, satellite sources, and merged products. The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly product is used as a base precipitation estimate, with other input products included when they are within +/- 50% of the GPCP estimates on a zonal-mean basis (ocean and land separately). The standard deviation s of the included products is then taken to be the estimated systematic, or bias, error. The results allow one to examine monthly climatologies and the annual climatology, producing maps of estimated bias errors, zonal-mean errors, and estimated errors over large areas such as ocean and land for both the tropics and the globe. For ocean areas, where there is the largest question as to absolute magnitude of precipitation, the analysis shows spatial variations in the estimated bias errors, indicating areas where one should have more or less confidence in the mean precipitation estimates. In the tropics, relative bias error estimates (s/m, where m is the mean precipitation) over the eastern Pacific Ocean are as large as 20%, as compared with 10%-15% in the western Pacific part of the ITCZ. An examination of latitudinal differences over ocean clearly shows an increase in estimated bias error at higher latitudes, reaching up to 50%. Over land, the error estimates also locate regions of potential problems in the tropics and larger cold-season errors at high latitudes that are due to snow. An empirical technique to area average the gridded errors (s) is described that allows one to make error estimates for arbitrary areas and for the tropics and the globe (land and ocean separately, and combined). Over the tropics this calculation leads to a relative error estimate for tropical land and ocean combined of 7%, which is considered to be an upper bound because of the lack of sign-of-the-error canceling when integrating over different areas with a different number of input products. For the globe the calculated relative error estimate from this study is about 9%, which is also probably a slight overestimate. These tropical and global estimated bias errors provide one estimate of the current state of knowledge of the planet's mean precipitation.

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)↗

How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

Tropical Cyclones↗

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are a continuation of nearly two decades of previous tropical cyclone-related investigations.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

An Assessment of the Skill of GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecasts

The seasonal forecast skill of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office coupled global climate model (CGCM) is evaluated based on an ensemble of 9-month lead forecasts for the period 1993 to 2010. The results from the current version (V2) of the CGCM consisting of the GEOS-5 AGM coupled to the MOM4 ocean model are compared with those from an earlier version (V1) in which the AGCM (the NSIPP model) was coupled to the Poseidon Ocean Model. It was found that the correlation skill of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts is generally better in V2, especially over the sub-tropical and tropical central and eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the improvement in skill in V2 mainly comes from better forecasts of the developing phase of ENSO from boreal spring to summer. The skill of ENSO forecasts initiated during the boreal winter season, however, shows no improvement in terms of correlation skill, and is in fact slightly worse in terms of root mean square error (RMSE). The degradation of skill is found to be due to an excessive ENSO amplitude. For V1, the ENSO amplitude is too strong in forecasts starting in boreal spring and summer, which causes large RMSE in the forecast. For V2, the ENSO amplitude is slightly stronger than that in observations and V1 for forecasts starting in boreal winter season. An analysis of the terms in the SST tendency equation, shows that this is mainly due to an excessive zonal advective feedback. In addition, V2 forecasts that are initiated during boreal winter season, exhibit a slower phase transition of El Nino, which is consistent with larger amplitude of ENSO after the ENSO peak season. It is found that this is due to weak discharge of equatorial Warm Water Volume (WWV). In both observations and V1, the discharge of equatorial WWV leads the equatorial geostrophic easterly current so as to damp the El Nino starting in January. This process is delayed by about 2 months in V2 due to the slower phase transition of the equatorial zonal current from westerly to easterly.

GMAO↗

Aircraft Measurements of BrO, IO, Glyoxal, NO2, H2O, O2-O2 and Aerosol Extinction Profiles in the Tropics: Comparison with Aircraft-/Ship-Based in Situ and Lidar Measurements

Tropospheric chemistry of halogens and organic carbon over tropical oceans modifies ozone and atmospheric aerosols, yet atmospheric models remain largely untested for lack of vertically resolved measurements of bromine monoxide (BrO), iodine monoxide (IO) and small oxygenated hydrocarbons like glyoxal (CHOCHO) in the tropical troposphere. BrO, IO, glyoxal, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), water vapor (H2O) and O2-O2 collision complexes (O4/ were measured by the University of Colorado Airborne Multi-AXis Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (CU AMAXDOAS) instrument, aerosol extinction by high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL), in situ aerosol size distributions by an ultra high sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS) and in situ H2O by vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) hygrometer. Data are presented from two research flights (RF12, RF17) aboard the National Science Foundation/ National Center for Atmospheric Research Gulfstream V aircraft over the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean (tEPO) as part of the "Tropical Ocean tRoposphere Exchange of Reactive halogens and Oxygenated hydrocarbons" (TORERO) project (January/February 2012). We assess the accuracy of O4 slant column density (SCD) measurements in the presence and absence of aerosols. Our O4-inferred aerosol extinction profiles at 477 nm agree within 6% with HSRL in the boundary layer and closely resemble the renormalized profile shape of Mie calculations constrained by UHSAS at low (sub-Rayleigh) aerosol extinction in the free troposphere. CU AMAX-DOAS provides a flexible choice of geometry, which we exploit to minimize the SCD in the reference spectrum (SCDREF, maximize signal-to-noise ratio) and to test the robustness of BrO, IO and glyoxal differential SCDs. The RF12 case study was conducted in pristine marine and free tropospheric air. The RF17 case study was conducted above the NOAA RV Ka'imimoana (TORERO cruise, KA-12-01) and provides independent validation data from ship-based in situ cavity-enhanced DOAS and MAX-DOAS. Inside the marine boundary layer (MBL) no BrO was detected (smaller than 0.5 pptv), and 0.2-0.55 pptv IO and 32-36 pptv glyoxal were observed. The near-surface concentrations agree within 30% (IO) and 10% (glyoxal) between ship and air-craft. The BrO concentration strongly increased with altitude to 3.0 pptv at 14.5 km (RF12, 9.1 to 8.6 deg N; 101.2 to 97.4 deg W). At 14.5 km, 5-10 pptv NO2 agree with model predictions and demonstrate good control over separating tropospheric from stratospheric absorbers (NO2 and BrO). Our profile retrievals have 12-20 degrees of freedom (DoF) and up to 500m vertical resolution. The tropospheric BrO vertical column density (VCD) was 1.5 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2) (RF12) and at least 0.5 x 10(exp 13) molec cm(exp -2) (RF17, 0- 10 km, lower limit). Tropospheric IO VCDs correspond to 2.1 x 10(exp 12) molec cm(exp -2) (RF12) and 2.5 x 10(exp 12) molec cm(exp -2) (RF17) and glyoxal VCDs of 2.6 x 10(exp 14) molec cm(exp -2) (RF12) and 2.7 x 10(exp 14) molec cm(exp -2) (RF17). Surprisingly, essentially all BrO as well as the dominant IO and glyoxal VCD fraction was located above 2 km (IO: 58 plus or minus 5 %, 0.1-0.2 pptv; glyoxal: 52 plus or minus 5 %, 3-20 pptv). To our knowledge there are no previous vertically resolved measurements of BrO and glyoxal from aircraft in the tropical free troposphere. The atmospheric implications are briefly discussed. Future studies are necessary to better understand the sources and impacts of free tropospheric halogens and oxygenated hydrocarbons on tropospheric ozone, aerosols, mercury oxidation and the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere.

Volkamer, R.↗

Impact of Source Region on the delta18 O signal in snow: A case study from Mount Wrangell Alaska

The stable isotopic composition of water in ice cores is an important source of information on past climate variability. At its simplest level, the underlying assumption is that there is an empirical relationship between the normalized difference in the concentration for these stable isotopes and a specified local temperature at the ice core site. There are, however, nonlocal processes, such as a change in source region or a change in the atmospheric pathway, which can impact the stable isotope signal, thereby complicating its use as a proxy for temperature. In this paper, the importance of these nonlocal processes are investigated through the analysis of the synoptic-scale circulation during a snowfall event at the summit of Mount Wrangell (62 deg N, 144 deg W; 4300 m MSL) in south-central Alaska. During this event there was, over a 1-day period in which the local temperature was approximately constant, a change in delta18 O that exceeded half that normally seen to occur in the region between summer and winter. As shall be shown, this arose from a change in the source region, from the subtropical eastern Pacific to northeastern Asia, for the snow that fell on Mount Wrangell during the event.

Snow↗

Active and Widespread Halogen Chemistry in the Tropical and Subtropical Free Troposphere

Halogens in the troposphere are increasingly recognized as playing an important role for atmospheric chemistry, and possibly climate. Bromine and iodine react catalytically to destroy ozone (O3), oxidize mercury, and modify oxidative capacity that is relevant for the lifetime of greenhouse gases. Most of the tropospheric O3 and methane (CH4) loss occurs at tropical latitudes. Here we report simultaneous measurements of vertical profiles of bromine oxide (BrO) and iodine oxide (IO) in the tropical and subtropical free troposphere (10degN to 40degS), and show that these halogens are responsible for 34% of the column-integrated loss of tropospheric O3. The observed BrO concentrations increase strongly with altitude (approx.3.4 pptv at 13.5 km), and are 2-4 times higher than predicted in the tropical free troposphere. BrO resembles model predictions more closely in stratospheric air. The largest model low bias is observed in the lower tropical transition layer (TTL) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, and may reflect a missing inorganic bromine source supplying an additional 2.5-6.4 pptv total inorganic bromine (Bry), or model overestimated Bry wet scavenging. Our results highlight the importance of heterogeneous chemistry on ice clouds, and imply an additional Bry source from the debromination of sea salt residue in the lower TTL. The observed levels of bromine oxidize mercury up to 3.5 times faster than models predict, possibly increasing mercury deposition to the ocean. The halogen-catalyzed loss of tropospheric O3 needs to be considered when estimating past and future ozone radiative effects.

Wang, Siyuan↗

Global Measurements of Optically Thin Ice Clouds Using CALIOP

Optically thin ice clouds have been shown to have a net warming effect on the globe but, because passive instruments are not sensitive to optically thin clouds, the occurrence frequency of this class of clouds is greatly underestimated in historical passive sensor cloud climatology. One major strength of CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization), onboard the CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) spacecraft, is its ability to detect these thin clouds, thus filling an important missing piece in the historical data record. This poster examines the full mission of CALIPSO Level 2 data, focusing on those CALIOP retrievals identified as thin ice clouds according to the definition shown to the right. Using this definition, thin ice clouds are identified and counted globally and vertically for each season. By examining the spatial and seasonal distributions of these thin clouds we hope to gain a better understanding these thin ice clouds and how their global distribution has changed over the mission. This poster showcases when and where CALIOP detects thin ice clouds and examines a case study of the eastern pacific and the effects seen from the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Ryan, R.↗

Connecting Indonesian Fires and Drought With the Type of El Niño and Phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole During 1979-2016

This study advances the previous understanding of the role of climate variability on Indonesian fire activity, by considering (i) the presence of different types of El Niño and (ii) the interaction between El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). We classify 12 El Niño events during 1979-2016 into Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) types (four and eight El Niño events, respectively) and analyze observational data of sea surface temperature, precipitation, drought code, biomass burning carbon emission, visibility, and aerosol optical depth accordingly. We find that more intense and prolonged Indonesian drought and fires occur in the EP type, during which the emitted carbon amounts almost double those in the CP type. By further separating the CP type El Niño according to the phase of the IOD, that is, positive and negative, we show that fire seasons with less burning intensity and shorter duration are predominantly associated with weakly positive or even negative phase of the IOD phenomena. Moreover, fire intensity exhibits geographic diversity: fires are always more intensive in southern Kalimantan than in southern Sumatra in all El Niño events, although it is less dry in the former region. The outcome of this study can be applied to drought early warning, fire management, and air quality forecast in Indonesia and adjacent areas by identifying the type of El Niño and the phase of the IOD in advance.

IOD phenomena↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-33231-DND

It is well established that clouds have a profound influence on Earth's energy budget and that cloud feedbacks are responsible for much of the uncertainty in climate model projections of global warming in response to radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. While most model evaluation efforts focus on model representation of the observed mean state. For example, the regional mean climatology of key climate variables there is also tremendous value in testing how a model represents observed internal variations of the climate system. Here we use CERES observations during and after the so-called global warming hiatus to evaluate a subset of CMIP6 climate models. The CERES data show a marked 0.83 Wm-2 reduction in global mean reflected SW TOA flux during the three years following the hiatus that results in an increase in net energy into the climate system. The primary driver of the decrease in SW TOA flux is a reduction in low cloud cover over the eastern Pacific Ocean that occurs in response to an unprecedented increase in SSTs in that region following the hiatus. The CMIP6 simulations consist of AMIP-style experiments in which SSTs and sea-ice boundary conditions are constrained by observations. For each model, the AMIP runs were extended through the end of 2017 from the official CMIP6 AMIP end period in 2014. Results show that the models do a good job at capturing the pattern of observed changes in TOA flux observed by CERES, but tend to underestimate the magnitude.

Norman G Loeb↗

Assessing the Radiative Impact of the 2019 – 2020 Australian Bushfires using Trajectory-Mapped CALIPSO Observations.

During the 2019/2020 fire season, Australian bushfires burned 46 million acres, killed 39 people and billions of animals, and became the costlier fire season in Australian history. Between the end of December and early January, a series of pyrocumulonimbus injected thick smoke layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere which were observed over the Tasmanian Sea and New Zealand by the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO). The smoke plume crossed the tropopause and was further dispersed across the Eastern Pacific Ocean rising up to 30 km height after two weeks. . In this study, we use CALIPSO and the NASA Langley Trajectory Model (LaTM), driven by Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) meteorological data, to track the dispersion of Australian fire smoke plumes in both the troposphere and the stratosphere. Trajectory mapping is used to re-construct the 3-dimension structure of the smoke plumes. Results are compared with independent observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III on the International Space Station (ISS) to understand the complex transport of the plume into the stratosphere and its lifetime. Using trajectory maps, the impact of the Australian bushfires on the Earth’s radiative energy budget is assessed with the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES).

Australian Bushfires↗

An Overview of the NASA ADM-Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight Campaign

Lidars are uniquely capable of collecting high precision and high spatio-temporal observations that have been used for atmospheric process studies from the ground, aircraft, and space for over 30 years. The Atmospheric Dynamics Mission Aeolus (ADM-Aeolus), the first-ever spaceborne Doppler wind lidar, was developed by the European Space Agency and launched in August 2018. The ADM-Aeolus Atmospheric Laser Doppler Instrument (ALADIN) observes profiles of the component of the wind vector and aerosol optical properties along the instrument’s line-of-sight direction on a global scale. Two airborne lidar systems have been developed at NASA Langley Research Center in recent years that collect measurements in support of several NASA Earth Science Division focus areas. The Doppler Aerosol WiNd (DAWN) lidar measures vertical profiles of horizontal wind speed and direction. The High Altitude Lidar Observatory (HALO) measure high resolution profiles of atmospheric water vapor (WV) and aerosol and cloud optical properties. Though new space-based missions with advanced capabilities such as Aeolus are continuously being conceived and developed, there are limitations in terms of spatial and vertical detail and measurement precision that can be accomplished from space, thus airborne remote sensing observations like those from DAWN and HALO are required to fill these observational gaps as well as to calibrate and validate space-based measurements. Over a two-week period in April 2019 during their Aeolus Cal/Val Test Flight campaign, NASA conducted five research flights over the Eastern Pacific Ocean with the DC-8 aircraft to 1) demonstrate the DAWN Doppler wind lidar, HALO high spectral resolution lidar aerosol/cloud measurement and differential absorption lidar WV measurement capabilities across a range of atmospheric conditions, 2) demonstrate Aeolus Cal/Val flight strategies and compare DAWN and HALO measurements with Aeolus to gain an initial perspective of Aeolus performance, and 3) demonstrate how atmospheric dynamic processes can be resolved and better understood through simultaneous observations of wind, WV, and aerosol profile observations, coupled with numerical model and other remote sensing observations. This paper provides a brief description of the DAWN and HALO instruments, discusses the synergistic observations collected across a wide range of atmospheric conditions sampled during the DC-8 flights, and a summary of the validation of DAWN, HALO, and Aeolus observations and comparisons.

Kristopher M. Bedka↗