The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Energy↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Energy prediction”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Wave Data Assimilation In Support Of Wave Energy Converter Power Prediction: Yakutat Alaska Case Study.
Abstract not provided.
Dallman, Ann Renee↗
MFIX-Exa: Performance prediction of multiphase energy conversion devices
MFIX-Exa targets the high-fidelity CFD-DEM model in which particles are unresolved by the fluid grid (typically using a fluid mesh approximately twice the particle diameter) but discrete particle dynamics including collisions are resolved with a simple linear-spring dashpot model. The fluid field is solved with a modern low Mach number formation of a cell-centered, nodal-pressure approximate projection method using a Godunov scheme . Physics capabilities include: complex geometries via embedded boundaries (EBs), open and closed system ideal gas equations of state, species transport and heterogeneous chemi- cal reactions. MFIX-Exa is built on the AMReX software framework, the ECP Block-Structured Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR) Co-Design Center, which allows the code to be portable and performant.Further integration into the ECP ecosystem includes HYPRE linear solvers and Ascent for in situ visualization. Current project efforts focus on scaling up realistic simulations to the KPP of the challenge problem: NETs 50kW chemical looping reactor, shakedown and scaling on JSLE and OLCF TDS systems and reaching for any remaining performance improvements.
Musser, Jordan↗
Data-driven Porosity Prediction for Directed Energy Deposition
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Kaufman, Georgia Elizabeth↗
Comparative analysis of internal energy excitation and dissociation of nitrogen predicted by independently developed ab initio potential energy surfaces
In this article we present a comparative atomic level study analyzing the vibrational excitation and dissociation of molecular nitrogen due to N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N( 4 S u ) and N 2 ( 1 Σ g + )+N 2 ( 1 Σ g + ) interactions governed by independently developed potential energy surfaces at the University of Minnesota and NASA Ames Research Center. Further, vibrational excitation was studied for N 2 +N 2 interactions from T=10000 to 25000 K and for N 2 +N from T=5000 to 30000 K. Nonequilibrium dissociation is studied from T=10000 to 30000 K under the quasi-steady-state condition for N 2 +N 2 and N 2 +N interactions. Finally, an inviscid Mach 20 dissociating nitrogen flow over a cylinder with a Knudsen number of 0.015 is carried out to study the impact of molecular interactions predicted by independently developed potential energy surfaces on a canonical hypersonic flow.
74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
A control oriented comprehensive degradation model for battery energy storage system life prediction
In order to ensure that stationary battery energy storage systems (BESSs) provide reliable energy buffering, both for power quality and economic purposes, the degradation must be considered. Cell degradation involves various side reactions and is highly dependent on its operating conditions. To accurately track cell degradation and predict its impact on battery behavior, a comprehensive physics-based degradation model based on an electrolyte phase-enhanced single particle (SP) model is developed. Key degradation physics, namely solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) layer formation and growth, Li plating on the graphite anode, and Mn dissolution on cathode of nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide (NMC622) are considered. The model is validated against experimental capacity data. The results reveal that the deposition rate of both SEI layer and Li metal increase as the charge voltage increases. At the cathode side, the solvent oxidation rate determines the Mn dissolution rate. As a result, the volume fraction of NMC622 in the cathode continually decreases at a gradually increasing rate.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Revenue prediction for integrated renewable energy and energy storage system using machine learning techniques
Revenue estimation for integrated renewable energy and energy storage systems is important to support plant owners or operators’ decisions in battery sizing selection that leads to maximized financial performances. A common approach to optimizing revenues of a hybrid hydro and energy storage system is using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). Although MILP models can provide accurate production cost estimations, they are typically very computationally expensive. To provide a fast yet accurate first-step information to hydropower plant owners or operators who consider integrating energy storage systems, we propose an innovative approach to predicting optimal revenues of an integrated energy generation and storage system. In this study, we examined the performance of two prediction techniques: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and machine learning (ML) models developed based on artificial neural networks (ANN). Predictive equations and models are generated based on optimized solutions from a market participation optimization model, the Conventional Hydropower Energy and Environmental Resource System (CHEERS) model. The two predicting techniques reduce the computational time to evaluate annual revenue for one set of battery configurations from 3 h to 1 to 4 min per run while also being implementable with significantly less data. The model validation prediction errors of developed GAMs and ML models are generally below 5%; for model testing predictions, the ML models consistently outperform the regression equations in terms of root mean square errors. This new approach allows plant owners, operators, or potential investors to quickly access multiple battery configurations under different energy generation and market scenarios. This new revenue prediction method will therefore help reduce the barriers, and thereby promoting the deployment of battery hybridization with existing renewable energy sources.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Prediction of the energy-absorption capability of composite tubes
A method of predicting the crack-related energy-absorption capability of composite tubes is presented. The method is based upon a phenomenological model of the crushing process exhibited by continuous-fiber-reinforced tubes. A finite element method is used to model the crushing process. The analysis is compared with experiments on Kevlar-epoxy and graphite-epoxy tubes. Reasonable agreement is obtained between the analysis and experiment.
Farley, Gary L.↗
Advancing energy storage through solubility prediction: leveraging the potential of deep learning
Solubility prediction plays a crucial role in energy storage applications, such as redox flow batteries, because it directly affects the efficiency and reliability. Researchers have developed various methods that utilize quantum calculations and descriptors to predict the aqueous solubilities of organic molecules. Notably, machine learning models based on descriptors have shown promise for solubility prediction. As deep learning tools, graph neural networks (GNNs) have emerged to capture complex structure–property relationships for material property prediction. Specifically, MolGAT, a type of GNN model, was designed to incorporate n-dimensional edge attributes, enabling the modeling of intricacies in molecular graphs and enhancing the prediction capabilities. In a previous study, MolGAT successfully screened 23 467 promising redox-active molecules from a database of over 500 000 compounds, based on redox potential predictions. This study focused on applying the MolGAT model to predict the aqueous solubility (log S) of a broad range of organic compounds, including those previously screened for redox activity. The model was trained on a diverse sample of 8494 organic molecules from AqSolDB and benchmarked against literature data, demonstrating superior accuracy compared with other state of the art graph-based and descriptor-based models. Subsequently, the trained MolGAT model was employed to screen redox-active organic compounds identified in the first phase of high-throughput virtual screening, targeting favorable solubility in energy storage applications. The second round of screening, which considered solubility, yielded 12 332 promising redox-active and soluble organic molecules suitable for use in aqueous redox flow batteries. Thus, the two-phase high-throughput virtual screening approach utilizing MolGAT, specifically trained for redox potential and solubility, is an effective strategy for selecting suitable intrinsically soluble redox-active molecules from extensive databases, potentially advancing energy storage through reliable material development. This indicates that the model is reliable for predicting the solubility of various molecules and provides valuable insights for energy storage, pharmaceutical, environmental, and chemical applications.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Prediction of physical workload in reduced gravity environments
The background, development, and application of a methodology to predict human energy expenditure and physical workload in low gravity environments, such as a Lunar or Martian base, is described. Based on a validated model to predict energy expenditures in Earth-based industrial jobs, the model relies on an elemental analysis of the proposed job. Because the job itself need not physically exist, many alternative job designs may be compared in their physical workload. The feasibility of using the model for prediction of low gravity work was evaluated by lowering body and load weights, while maintaining basal energy expenditure. Comparison of model results was made both with simulated low gravity energy expenditure studies and with reported Apollo 14 Lunar EVA expenditure. Prediction accuracy was very good for walking and for cart pulling on slopes less than 15 deg, but the model underpredicted the most difficult work conditions. This model was applied to example core sampling and facility construction jobs, as presently conceptualized for a Lunar or Martian base. Resultant energy expenditures and suggested work-rest cycles were well within the range of moderate work difficulty. Future model development requirements were also discussed.
Goldberg, Joseph H.↗
Prediction of physical workload in reduced gravity
The background, development, and application of a methodology to predict human energy expenditure and physical workload in low gravity environments, such as a Lunar or Martian base, is described. Based on a validated model to predict energy expenditures in earth-based industrial jobs, the model relies on an elemental analysis of the proposed job. Because the job itself need not physically exist, many alternative job designs may be compared in their physical workload. The feasibility of using the model for prediction of low gravity work was evaluated by lowering body and load weights, while maintaining basal energy expenditure. Comparison of model results was made both with simulated low gravity energy expendiure studies and with reported Apollo 14 Lunar EVA expenditure. Prediction accuracy was very good for walking and for cart pulling on slopes less than 15 deg, but the model underpredicted the most difficult work conditions. This model was applied to example core sampling and facility construction jobs, as presently conceptualized for a Lunar or Martian base. Resultant energy expenditures and suggested work-rest cycles were well within the range of moderate work difficulty. Future model development requirements were also discussed.
Goldberg, Joseph H.↗
Data for: A hybrid biophysical-machine learning framework for diurnal surface energy flux estimation using proximal sensing
Thermal-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal datasets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for specific surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of an ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81-0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46-0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical – machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.
Agricultural Sciences↗
A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing
Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.
evapotranspiration↗
Augmenting machine learning of energy landscapes with local structural information
We present a machine learning approach for accurately predicting formation energies of binary compounds in the context of crystal structure predictions. The success of any machine learning model depends significantly on the choice of representation used to encode the relevant physical information into machine-learnable data. We test different representation schemes based on partial radial and angular distribution functions (RDF+ADF) on Al–Ni and Cd–Te structures generated using our genetic algorithm for structure prediction. We observe a remarkable improvement in predictive accuracy upon transitioning from global to atom-centered representations, resulting in a threefold decrease in prediction errors. We show that a support vector regression model using a combination of atomic radial and angular distribution functions performs best at the formation energy prediction task, providing small root mean squared errors of 3.9 meV/atom and 10.9 meV/atom for Al–Ni and Cd–Te, respectively. We test the performance of our models against common traditional descriptors and find that RDF- and ADF-based representations significantly outperform many of those in the prediction of formation energies. The high accuracy of predictions makes our machine learning models great candidates for the exploration of energy landscapes.
Honrao, Shreyas J. (ORCID:0000000166155257)↗
Anomaly Attribution with Likelihood Compensation
This paper addresses the task of explaining anomalous predictions of a black-box regression model. When using a black-box model, such as one to predict building energy consumption from many sensor measurements, we often have a situation where some observed samples may significantly deviate from their prediction. It may be due to a sub-optimal black-box model, or simply because those samples are outliers. In either case, one would ideally want to compute a responsibility score indicative of the extent to which an input variable is responsible for the anomalous output. In this work, we formalize this task as a statistical inverse problem: Given model deviation from the expected value, infer the responsibility score of each of the input variables. We propose a new method called likelihood compensation (LC), which is founded on the likelihood principle and computes a correction to each input variable. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first principled framework that computes a responsibility score for real valued anomalous model deviations. We apply our approach to a real-world building energy prediction task and confirm its utility based on expert feedback.
Idé, Tsuyoshi↗
What it Takes to Compute Highly Accurate Rovibrational Line Lists for Use in Astrochemistry
We review the Best Theory + Reliable High-resolution Experiment (BTRHE) strategy for obtaining highly accurate molecular rovibrational line lists with InfraRed (IR) intensities. The need for highly accurate molecular rovibrational line lists is two-fold: a) assignment of the many rovibrational lines for common stable molecules especially those that exhibit a large amplitude motion, such as NH3, or have a high density of states such as SO2; and b) characterization of the atmospheres of exoplanets which will be one of the main areas of research in astronomy in the coming decades. The first motivation arises due to the need to eliminate lines due to common molecules in an astronomical observation in order to identify lines from new molecules, while the second motivation arises due to the need to obtain accurate molecular opacities in order to characterize the atmosphere of an exoplanet. The BTRHE strategy first consists of using high quality ab initio quantum chemical methods to obtain a global potential energy surface (PES) and dipole moment surface (DMS) that contains the proper physics. The global PES is then refined using a subset of the reliable high-resolution experimental data. The refined PES then gives energy level predictions to an accuracy similar to the reproduction accuracy of the experimental data used in the refinement step in the interpolation region (i.e., within the range of the experimental data used in the refinement step). The accuracy of the energy levels will slowly degrade as they are extrapolated to spectral regions beyond the high-resolution experimental data used in the refinement step. However, because the degradation is slow, the predicted energy levels can be used to assign new high-resolution experiments, and the data from these can then be used in a subsequent refinement step. In this way, the global PES eventually can yield highly accurate energy levels for all desired spectral regions including to very high energies and high J values. We show that IR intensities computed with the BTRHE rovibrational wavefunctions and the DMS can be very accurate provided one has minimized the fitting error of the DMS and tested the completeness of the DMS. Some examples of our work on NH3, CO2, and SO2 are given to highlight the usefulness of the BTRHE strategy and to provide ideas on how to further improve its predictive power in the future. In particular, it is shown how successive refinement steps, once new high-resolution data is available, can lead to PESs that yield highly accurate transition energies to larger spectral regions. The importance of including non-adiabatic corrections to reduce the J-dependence of errors for H-containing molecules is shown with work on NH3. Another very important aspect of the BTRHE approach is the consistency across isotopologues, which allows for highly accurate line lists for any isotopologue once one is obtained for the main isotopologue (which has more high-resolution data available for refinement).
Xinchuan Huang↗
An Advanced Microscopic Energy Consumption Model for Automated Vehicle:Development, Calibration, Verification
The automated vehicle (AV) equipped with the Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) system is expected to reduce the fuel consumption for the intelligent transportation system. This paper presents the Advanced ACC-Micro (AA-Micro) model, a new energy consumption model based on micro trajectory data, calibrated and verified by empirical data. Utilizing a commercial AV equipped with the ACC system as the test platform, experiments were conducted at the Columbus 151 Speedway, capturing data from multiple ACC and Human-Driven (HV) test runs. The calibrated AA-Micro model integrates features from traditional energy consumption models and demonstrates superior goodness of fit, achieving an impressive 90% accuracy in predicting ACC system energy consumption without overfitting. A comprehensive statistical evaluation of the AA-Micro model's applicability and adaptability in predicting energy consumption and vehicle trajectories indicated strong model consistency and reliability for ACC vehicles, evidenced by minimal variance in RMSE values and uniform RSS distributions. Conversely, significant discrepancies were observed when applying the model to HV data, underscoring the necessity for specialized models to accurately predict energy consumption for HV and ACC systems, potentially due to their distinct energy consumption characteristics.
Ma, Ke↗
Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction
Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.
AMI data↗