Results for “Error Rate Predictions” — Page 16

NASA NTRS1989

Predicting The Propagation Of Cracks

Advanced Crack Propagation Predictive Analysis Program, FLAGR04, developed as aid in predicting growth of preexisting flaws and cracks in structural components. Provides fracture-mechanics analyst with computerized method of evaluation of "safe crack-growth life" capabilities of structural components. Also used to evaluate tolerance-to-damage aspects of given structural design. Predicts growth of crack by use of two-dimensional model independently predicting growth of flaw in two directions based on calculation of stress-intensity factors. Input to FLAGR04 consists of initial definition of crack, type of rate solution, type and geometry of flaw, properties of material, data on load spectrum, load-stress functions, and design-limit stress levels. Output includes echo of input with any error or warning message and history of propagation of crack. Written in FORTRAN IV.

Tianlai, HU↗

NASA NTRS1989

Dynamical predictability in a simple general circulation model - Average error growth

Average predictability and error growth in a simple realistic two-level general circulation model (GCM) were investigated using a series of Monte Carlo experiments for fixed external forcing (perpetual winter in the Northern Hemisphere). It was found that, for realistic initial errors, the dependence of the limit of dynamic predictability on total wavenumber was similar to that found for the ECMWF model for the 1980/1981 winter conditions, with the lowest wavenumbers showing significant skill for forecast ranges of more than 1 month. On the other hand, for very small amplitude errors distributed according to the climate spectrum, the total error growth was superexponential, reaching a maximum growth rate (2-day doubling time) in about 1 week. A simple empirical model of error variance, which involved two broad wavenumber bands and incorporating a 3/2 power saturation term, was found to provide an excellent fit to the GCM error growth behavior.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of classical statistics on thermal conductivity predictions of BAs and diamond using machine learning molecular dynamics

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have greatly enhanced molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, achieving near-first-principles accuracy in thermal conductivity studies. In this work, we reveal that this accuracy, observed in BAs and diamond at sub-Debye temperatures, stems from an accidental error cancelation: classical statistics overestimates specific heat while underestimating phonon lifetimes, balancing out in thermal conductivity predictions. However, this balance is disrupted when isotopes are introduced, leading MLIP-based MD to significantly underpredict thermal conductivity compared to experiments and quantum statistics-based Boltzmann transport equation. This discrepancy arises not from classical statistics affecting phonon–isotope scattering rates but from its impact on the interplay between phonon–isotope and phonon–phonon scattering in the normal scattering-dominated BAs and diamond. In conclusion, this work underscores the limitations of MLIP-based MD for thermal conductivity studies at sub-Debye temperatures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1989

Pulse Vector-Excitation Speech Encoder

Proposed pulse vector-excitation speech encoder (PVXC) encodes analog speech signals into digital representation for transmission or storage at rates below 5 kilobits per second. Produces high quality of reconstructed speech, but with less computation than required by comparable speech-encoding systems. Has some characteristics of multipulse linear predictive coding (MPLPC) and of code-excited linear prediction (CELP). System uses mathematical model of vocal tract in conjunction with set of excitation vectors and perceptually-based error criterion to synthesize natural-sounding speech.

Davidson, Grant↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the prediction of free turbulent jets with swirl using a quadratic pressure-strain model

Data from free turbulent jets both with and without swirl are used to assess the performance of the pressure-strain model of Speziale, Sarkar and Gatski which is quadratic in the Reynolds stresses. Comparative predictions are also obtained with the two versions of the Launder, Reece and Rodi model which are linear in the same terms. All models are used as part of a complete second-order closure based on the solution of differential transport equations for each non-zero component of the Reynolds stress tensor together with an equation for the scalar energy dissipation rate. For non-swirling jets, the quadratic model underestimates the measured spreading rate of the plane jet but yields a better prediction for the axisymmetric case without resolving the plane jet/round jet anomaly. For the swirling axisymmetric jet, the same model accurately reproduces the effects of swirl on both the mean flow and the turbulence structure in sharp contrast with the linear models which yield results that are in serious error. The reasons for these differences are discussed.

Younis, Bassam A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A Simulation System for Validating the Analytical Prediction of Performance of the Convolutional Encoded and Symbol Interleaved TDRSS S-band Return Link Service in a Pulsed RFI Environment

A hardware integrated convolutional coding/symbol interleaving and integrated symbol deinterleaving/Viterbi decoding simulation system is described. Validation on the system of the performance of the TDRSS S-band return link with BPSK modulation, operating in a pulsed RFI environment is included. The system consists of three components, the Fast Linkabit Error Rate Tester (FLERT), the Transition Probability Generator (TPG), and a modified LV7017B which includes rate 1/3 capability as well as a periodic interleaver/deinterleaver. Operating and maintenance manuals for each of these units are included.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transcribing Air Traffic Control System Command Center Planning Telecons Using Cloud-Based Automatic Speech Recognition

This paper addresses the challenge of using Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) technology to transcribe regular teleconferences that happen between FAA Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) planners, stakeholders and air users. These planning teleconferences (aka telecons or planning webinars) are an integral part of managing air traffic in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). In particular, the meetings facilitate the creation and modification of various traffic management initiatives (TMIs), that are used to regulate the flow of air traffic. This is typically a human intensive process, requiring specialists to listen to the entire meeting audio (10-20 minutes duration) and inferring the state of the NAS (e.g., weather phenomenon) that was discussed. It would be advantageous to have digital transcripts of the audio and have useful information (e.g., related to TMIs) automatically extracted from the transcripts. In this regard, we are exploring the adoption of state-of-the-art speech to text and Natural Language Processing (NLP) tools that will achieve our objective of digitizing the webinar audio. Unfortunately, the highly technical phraseology present in the audio and limited data availability for model building make ASR difficult. To overcome this challenge, we have taken the critical first step in creating a human transcription dataset from ~20 hours of speech in the ATCSCC audio with the help of subject matter experts. A novelty of our work is the creation of a ground truth transcription dataset for ATCSCC teleconference webinars, which is particularly important for Aviation domain-specific NLP tasks. Using Microsoft Speech Studio, a cloud-based ASR platform, we have fine-tuned the English pre-trained ASR models (available in speech studio) and achieved an average word error rate (WER) of 6.81%. The baseline ASR also provides a digital version of each planning webinar, making it accessible and text-searchable for future references. Additionally, the transcriptions can serve as a bridge between raw audio data and a range of text-based NLP tasks, such as named entity recognition (NER) and intent classification, potentially enhancing the digital footprint of the webinars and other connected data sources. Our work has several potential applications. Firstly, the transcriptions can be analyzed to understand the complex decision process of creating, implementing and modifying TMIs and may also contribute to TMI prediction services. Secondly, our dataset and model can be used to develop more accurate ASR systems for aviation-specific language, which can bring about digital communication in the aviation industry (and aid current “voice only” communications, which are inherently error-prone). Lastly, the transcriptions themselves can be used as a valuable resource for training other NLP models.

Stephen S. B. Clarke↗

NASA NTRS1973

Multimegabit Operation Multiplexer System

The Multimegabit Operation Multiplexer System (MOMS) is a high-data-rate PCM telemetry unit capable of sampling and encoding 60 scanning radiometer and four vidicon channels at 250 kilosamples/second and 5 megasamples/second, respectively. This sampling capacity plus the seven-bit quantization requires a total throughput rate of 40 megasamples/second and 280 megabits/second. To produce these rates efficiently, the system was divided into a pair of identical 140-megabit blocks. A low-power 20-MHz analog multiplexer and analog-to-digital converter were developed together with a video sample-and-hold that features an aperture time error of less than 50 psec. Breadboard testing of these basic building blocks confirmed the design prediction that the total system would consume 27 watts of power. Two 140-megabit output parts are suitable for quadriphase modulation.

Giri, R. R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Teal Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Human-in-the-Loop Ground Evaluation for Long-Duration Spaceflight

Purpose: To counter the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the cardiopulmonary system, astronauts living on the International Space Station exercise on a variety of countermeasure equipment including the Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS). Operational since 2001, the onboard CEVIS will be replaced by a new model, known as Teal CEVIS (TC). As a part of ground evaluation, TC hardware underwent human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing to verify the TC hardware produces workloads that elicit physiologic responses comparable to a laboratory cycle ergometer (LAB). Methods: Seven subjects (5 M/2 F) performed submaximal cycle ergometer testing with indirect calorimetry measures on TC and LAB on separate test days. Testing consisted of graded 30 watt increases in workload until subjects reached 85% of age-predicted max heart rate (HR). Exercise outcomes included rate of oxygen uptake (VO2; liters/min), rate of energy expenditure (REE; kcal/min), and HR (beats/min). Linear mixed models (LMM) were fitted to compare VO2, REE, and HR responses between devices across power outputs with fixed effects for power (P) and device (D) and with random effects for subject. LMM effect coefficients (β), std errors (SE), pseudo-partial R2 of effects (pR2), and model likelihood ratio statistics (χ2, Pr(> chisq); α<.05) are provided. Results: LMM main effects for P and D were observed for VO2 (βp=.0107, SE = .0002, pR2=0.97; βd = -0.075, SE = 0.019, pR2=0.14; χ2(1)= 13.57, p<.001), such that VO2 was higher across stages on TC. Main effects of P and D were observed for REE (βp= .0586, SE = 0.001, pR2= 0.97; βd = -0.33208, SE = 0.099, pR2= 0.056; χ2(1)=10.481, p < .01), such that REE was higher across power outputs on TC. A P x D interaction was observed for HR, along with main effects for P and D (βp x d =-0.048, SE = 0.02, pR2=0.048; βp= 0.42, SE = 0.016, pR2=0.87; χ2(1) = 5.398, p = 0.02), such that higher workloads elicited a greater difference in HR between devices. Conclusions: HITL results show, TC elicits greater physiologic responses across power outputs compared to LAB. However, pR2 for device effects show small differences between devices. Therefore, TC can be expected to provide appropriate physiological stimulus across workloads and be considered a reliable tool to mitigate the effects of weightlessness.

Cycle Ergometer Vibration and Isolation System↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Error Sources and Mitigation Strategies for Thermocouples Integrated in Flexible Thermal Protection System Materials

Brief Presenter Biography:Ruth Miller is an aer-ospace systems engineer in the Entry Systems and Ve-hicle Development Branch at NASA Ames Research Center.Introduction:The flexible thermal protection sys-tem (FTPS) on NASA’s Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) vehicle will be in-strumented with thermocouples (TCs) to measure the in-depth thermal response during entry into Earth’s atmos-phere[1, 2]. Accurate flight temperature measurements are critical for verifying vehicle performance during the flight test and reducing uncertainties in the thermal models.However,the deployable nature of inflatable decelerator technology presents challengesfor integrat-ing TCs, specifically the TCsneed to be compactableand cannot damage the FTPSnor the inflatable structure(IS).Unlike traditional rigid aeroshells, routing TCsthrough the thickness of the FTPS could cause signifi-cant damage during packing of the deployable aeroshellbecause the different layers may shift small amounts in relation to each other imparting strain on the TCsand FTPS materials. The LOFTID TCleads are routed from the measurement location back to the data acquisition system in the vehicle centerbody within the same FTPS layer that they are monitoring the temperature. This ap-proach eliminates the need to put holes in the FTPS lay-ers,butas a consequence,the insulated TCleads travel for an appreciable distance through a region that will expose them to high temperaturesand large thermal gra-dients.LOFTID’s TCswere baselined to be commercially available Type K TCswith a binder impregnated glass braid insulation. These TCswere chosen because they had been used successfully on IRVE-3 and in ground-based arc jet testing. Additionally, these TCsdid notdamage the FTPS nor IS during packing and deploy-ment testing. However, the glass braid insulation is only rated to a maximum continuous use temperature of 482ºC. For reference, the duration of the heat pulse on the LOFTID vehicle is on the order of minutes and themaximum predicted temperaturebeneaththe outermost FTPS layersis 1350ºC.Ground-based testing in a tube furnace at NASA Ames Research Centerwas conducted to determine if the baseline TCsrouted through FTPS samples would survive and provide accurate temperature measure-mentsat LOFTID flight-relevant temperatures[3].The test results showed large measurement errors occurred beginning at approximately 400°C due to conductive deposits on the TCinsulation electrically shorting the TCleads.The conductive deposits and thus electrical shorting weredetermined to be caused by twoerror sources:1.The organic binder on the TCinsulation carbon-izingin a high temperature, low oxygen envi-ronment2.Decomposition products from the FTPSperme-atingthe braided TC insulationFurther testing in the tube furnace demonstrated that heat cleaning the TCinsulation effectivelyremovedthe organic binder andeliminatedthe first error source.The second error sourcewas shown to be mitigated by the addition of amica wraparound each individual TCleadtoact as an impermeable barrier.To understand the applicability of theground-based tube furnace test results to flight,anarc jet testseriesat Boeing’s Large Core Arc Tunnel (LCAT) facilitywas conducted[4].The error sourcesand mitigation strate-giesidentified in the tube furnace testing were substan-tiatedin the arc jet testing.However, the arc jet testing also revealed three new error sources:1.Glass TCinsulation meltingwhich resultsin electrical shorting of the TCeither through di-rect contact between the two leads or through the electrically conductive FTPS materials2.TCwire meltingwhich results in a noisy and/or open-loop TCresponse3.Type K TCwire green-rotwhich results in large calibration errors Scope of the Presentation:This presentation will include a brief discussion onthe effect of electrical shorting on the output of a TC(i.e. how to identify elec-trical shorting in TCdataand what the associated erroris).The tube furnace and arc jet test resultswill be dis-cussedand the solutions LOFTID is implementing to mitigate the error sourcesidentified in the tube furnace and arc jet testingwill be presented.Additionally, futureresearch and development work to eliminateTCerror sourcesfor future missionswill be recommended.

R A Miller↗

DOE OSTI2025

Rapid SACR Observations of Convection at Bankhead National Forest (RAPID) Field Campaign Report

Improving our representation of convective cell processes requires better quantification of convective clouds throughout their entire life cycle. This includes gaining a clearer understanding of the controls on key convective cloud properties, such as updraft intensity, particle size distributions, rainfall rates, and hydrometeor species. Our inability to improve convective cloud process modeling stems, in part, from a limited understanding of convective cell properties, particularly given how rapidly these storms evolve. This lack of detailed observations in the most intense and organized convective storms is especially significant, as large errors remain in representing these clouds, which are critical for severe weather prediction and Earth system model performance. Cloud and precipitation radars are essential tools for studying cloud microphysics and dynamics, particularly in deeper convective clouds. The recent U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s third Mobile Facility (AMF3) Bankhead National Forest (BNF) deployment provides a unique opportunity to investigate important land–atmosphere interactions, as well as the environmental controls on deep convective cloud processes, in a location favorable for frequent convection. We operate the X/Ka-band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (X/Ka SACR) using a scan strategy optimized to capture these rapidly evolving clouds and their properties, thereby improving studies of deep convective cloud processes. This effort is strengthened by a complementary and coordinated partnership with ongoing university and multi-agency radar activities collocated in north Alabama—a unique opportunity to examine clouds and precipitation from a lifetime-centric perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme

The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector. *************************************** AUTHOR = Slater, Bethany University of Liverpool b.slater2@liverpool.ac.uk TITLE = Enhancing Sterile Neutrino Oscillation Sensitivities using SBND-PRISM at the Short-Baseline Neutrino Programme PAGES = 218 NOTE = Ph.D. University of Liverpool March 2026 ABSTRACT = The Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) Programme at Fermilab is comprised of two detectors, SBND and ICARUS, placed at $110$\,m and $600$\,m along the Booster Neutrino Beam at Fermilab. The key physics aim of the programme is to definitively test the sterile neutrino hypothesis, a proposed fourth flavour of neutrino that may explain certain experimental anomalies seen regarding standard model neutrino oscillations. To be able to detect the existence of sterile neutrinos, the uncertainties of the programme must be well constrained. To enable this, a robust analysis must be constructed that can consistently identify the correct values of systematic parameters and generate accurate predictions of what the neutrino energy spectrum at ICARUS should look like. SBND's design allows for the introduction of a technique called PRISM. In PRISM, the detector is divided into regions of different off axis angles from the beam, forming different samples where systematics impact each one in a distinct way. This allows any fits performed to obtain a better understanding of the correct value of the systematic parameters. The first analysis included in this thesis focuses on the improvements seen to the sensitivity of SBN to sterile oscillation parameters when using a PRISM configuration instead of treating SBND as a single whole. Focusing on the $5\sigma$ exclusion contour from the $\numu$ disappearance channel using three PRISM samples, an improvement on the order of $30$\,\% is seen, extending the parameter space for which the null hypothesis can be excluded. This thesis also presents a series of mock data studies comparing the abilities of SBND and PRISM analyses, concluding that in the case of simple changes between Monte Carlo (MC) and data, PRISM produces predictions of the ICARUS event rate spectrum that are more accurate and have smaller uncertainties. When moving to more realistic mock data, using different models to create the mock data than were used for the MC, the postfit predictions at ICARUS had a smaller difference between the postfit and mock data reconstructed energy spectra across all mock data samples tested. Finally, a covariance matrix defined by the maximum discrepancy between the postfit and mock data spectra at ICARUS from each of the SBND and PRISM fits across all the samples was constructed. The resultant $1\sigma$ fractional error induced by this bias systematic on the postfit spectrum has a smaller magnitude for PRISM than SBND, with the improvements ranging from $2.21$\,\% to $6.26$\,\% depending on the mock data samples. This summarises the reduction in systematic error when using PRISM instead of treating SBND as a single detector.

Slater, Bethany [Liverpool U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reduced-order CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusion for pellet fueling

This study presents a reduced-order model (ROM) for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of cryogenic hydrogen isotope extrusions, focusing on protium (H₂) and deuterium (D₂) piston extruders. Using a 2D axisymmetric ROM in ANSYS-Polyflow, significant computational savings were achieved (runtime reduced from 9∼24 h to 3∼5 min), with extrusion force discrepancies between the 2D ROM and 3D models being on the order of 1%. Parametric studies identified optimal cutoff shear rates in the viscosity model (0.01/s for H₂ and 0.001/s for D₂), providing recommendations for future simulations. Finally, a comprehensive comparison of ROM results with experimental data was performed across varying geometries, cryogenic materials, temperatures, extrusion lengths, and piston velocities. Predictions at low extrusion temperatures met the objective of providing quick and efficient solutions with an acceptable extrusion force error of approximately 10% or less, validating the effectiveness of the 2D ROM approach. However, at high temperatures closer to the triple point, extrusion force error grows, which necessitates developing an improved model that accounts for temperature effects, e.g. melting. Nevertheless, the findings still represent a significant improvement in efficiency of CFD modeling of cryogenic hydrogenic extrusion. The ROM framework can also be extended to tritium (T2) and screw extruders, which will ultimately provide a fast and effective tool for optimizing pellet injector design for ITER and future reactor systems.

Fan, Joy [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000229751735)↗

NASA NTRS1983

Stellar coronae - What can be predicted with minimum flux models?

In order to determine the possible errors of various minimum flux corona (MFC) predictions, MFC models are compared with a grid of detailed coronal models covering a range of two orders of magnitude in coronal heating and damping length values. The MFC concept is totally unreliable in the prediction of mass loss and the relative importance of various kinds of energy losses, and MFC predictions for the mass loss rate and energy losses due to stellar wind can be wrong by many orders of magnitude. It is suggested that for future applications, the unreliable MFC formulas should be replaced by a grid of related models accounting for the coronal dependence on damping length, such as the models underlying the present study.

Hammer, R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Stagnation-point heat-transfer rate predictions at aeroassist flight conditions

The results are presented for the stagnation-point heat-transfer rates used in the design process of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) vehicle over its entire aeropass trajectory. The prediction methods used in this investigation demonstrate the application of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques to a wide range of flight conditions and their usefulness in a design process. The heating rates were computed by a viscous-shock-layer (VSL) code at the lower altitudes and by a Navier-Stokes (N-S) code for the higher altitude cases. For both methods, finite-rate chemically reacting gas was considered, and a temperature-dependent wall-catalysis model was used. The wall temperature for each case was assumed to be radiative equilibrium temperature, based on total heating. The radiative heating was estimated by using a correlation equation. Wall slip was included in the N-S calculation method, and this method implicitly accounts for shock slip. The N-S/VSL combination of projection methods was established by comparison with the published benchmark flow-field code LAURA results at lower altitudes, and the direct simulation Monte Carlo results at higher altitude cases. To obtain the design heating rate over the entire forward face of the vehicle, a boundary-layer method (BLIMP code) that employs reacting chemistry and surface catalysis was used. The ratio of the VSL or N-S method prediction to that obtained from the boundary-layer method code at the stagnation point is used to define an adjustment factor, which accounts for the errors involved in using the boundary-layer method.

Gupta, Roop N.↗

NASA NTRS2025

CFD Validation and Scaling of a Condenser Used in an ISRU Propellant Production System

This work develops a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model of a Commercial-Off-The-Shelf (COTS) condenser used for ground-based testing of an In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) propellant production system. STAR-CCM+ was used to simulate water condensing through the condenser downstream of a methanation reactor. The computational data of the digital model is validated with test cases using nitrogen and water in ambient conditions. After validation with the test data, the digital model can be used to predict scale at higher production targets. The StarCCM+ simulation of the digital model shows good agreement with the test data provided. From the simulation, the condensation rate calculated was 18.3 g/hr and the process gas mass flow rate was 709.2 g/hr. The test data measured an average 16.9 g/hr condensation rate and 693.6 g/hr process gas mass flow rate. The simulation shows a 7.3% error in the water condensation and 2.2% error in the process gas at the outlet.

Condenser↗