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DOE OSTI2021

Effects of overlapping sources on cosmic shear estimation: Statistical sensitivity and pixel-noise bias

The next generation of dark-energy imaging surveys — so called “Stage-IV” surveys, such as that of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) — will cross a threshold in the number density of detected sources on the sky that requires qualitatively different image analysis and measurement techniques compared to the current generation of Stage-III surveys. In Stage-IV surveys, a significant amount of the cosmologically useful information is due to sources whose images overlap with those of other sources on the sky. Here, we focus on the weak gravitational lensing probe, for which we expect the largest impact since the cosmic shear signal is primarily encoded in the estimated shapes of observed galaxies and thus directly impacted by overlaps. We introduce a framework based on the Fisher formalism to analyze the effect of the overlapping sources (“blending”) on the estimation of cosmic shear. This method gives concrete predictions for the minimum loss of information due to noise and blending for any choice of “deblending” scheme and shape-measurement algorithm. Our studies account for undetected sources but do not address their full effects and biases they may introduce. We use simulated images and predict this impact of blending for three surveys: the Dark Energy Survey (DES), the Hyper-Suprime Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-SSP), and the Rubin LSST. Our methodology successfully estimates the statistical sensitivity to weak lensing for DES and HSC early results. For LSST, we present the expected loss in statistical sensitivity for the ten-year survey due to blending. We find that for approximately 62% of galaxies that are likely to be detected in full-depth LSST images, at least 1% of the flux in their pixels is from overlapping sources. We also find that the statistical correlations between measures of overlapping galaxies and, to a much lesser extent (0.2%) the higher shot noise level due to their presence, decrease the effective number density of galaxies, N eff , by ~ 18%. We calculate an upper limit on N eff of 39.4 galaxies per arcmin 2 in r band. We study the impact of stars on as a function of stellar density and illustrate the diminishing returns of extending the survey into lower Galactic latitudes. We extend the simulation-based Fisher formalism to predict the expected increase in pixel-noise bias due to blending for maximum-likelihood (ML) shape estimators. We find that noise bias depends sensitively on the particular shape estimator and measure of ensemble-average shape that is used, and properties of the galaxy that include redshift-dependent quantities such as size and luminosity. The source code for these studies is available online.[The documented software developed for the catalog-level studies are available in the open-source LSST DESC github repository https://github.com/LSSTDESC/WeakLensingDeblending. The software for analyzing one or two galaxies with user-defined parameters is in the open-source github repository https://github.com/ismael-mendoza/ShapeMeasurementFisherFormalism.]

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI DR1 Ly α 1D power spectrum: the Fast Fourier Transform estimator measurement

Here, we present the one-dimensional Lyman-α forest power spectrum measurement derived from the data release 1 (DR1) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). The measurement of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum along the line of sight from high-redshift quasar spectra provides information on the shape of the linear matter power spectrum, neutrino masses, and the properties of dark matter. In this work, we use a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)-based estimator, which is validated on synthetic data in a companion paper. Compared to the FFT measurement performed on the DESI early data release, we improve the noise characterization with a cross-exposure estimator and test the robustness of our measurement using various data splits. We also refine the estimation of the uncertainties and now present an estimator for the covariance matrix of the measurement. Furthermore, we compare our results to previous high-resolution and eBOSS measurements. In another companion paper, we present the same DR1 measurement using the Quadratic Maximum Likelihood Estimator (QMLE). These two measurements are consistent with each other and constitute the most precise one-dimensional power spectrum measurement to date, while being in good agreement with results from the DESI early data release.

Lyman alpha forest↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

DOE OSTI2022

Robust and scalable uncertainty estimation with conformal prediction for machine-learned interatomic potentials

Abstract Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is important to machine learning (ML) force fields to assess the level of confidence during prediction, as ML models are not inherently physical and can therefore yield catastrophically incorrect predictions. Established a-posteriori UQ methods, including ensemble methods, the dropout method, the delta method, and various heuristic distance metrics, have limitations such as being computationally challenging for large models due to model re-training. In addition, the uncertainty estimates are often not rigorously calibrated. In this work, we propose combining the distribution-free UQ method, known as conformal prediction (CP), with the distances in the neural network’s latent space to estimate the uncertainty of energies predicted by neural network force fields. We evaluate this method (CP+latent) along with other UQ methods on two essential aspects, calibration, and sharpness, and find this method to be both calibrated and sharp under the assumption of independent and identically-distributed (i.i.d.) data. We show that the method is relatively insensitive to hyperparameters selected, and test the limitations of the method when the i.i.d. assumption is violated. Finally, we demonstrate that this method can be readily applied to trained neural network force fields with traditional and graph neural network architectures to obtain estimates of uncertainty with low computational costs on a training dataset of 1 million images to showcase its scalability and portability. Incorporating the CP method with latent distances offers a calibrated, sharp and efficient strategy to estimate the uncertainty of neural network force fields. In addition, the CP approach can also function as a promising strategy for calibrating uncertainty estimated by other approaches.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

A differentiable perturbation-based weak lensing shear estimator

Upcoming imaging surveys will use weak gravitational lensing to study the large-scale structure of the Universe, demanding sub-per cent accuracy for precise cosmic shear measurements. We present a new differentiable implementation of our perturbation-based shear estimator (fpfs), using jax, which is publicly available as part of a new suite of analytic shear algorithms called anacal. This code can analytically calibrate the shear response of any non-linear observable constructed with the fpfs shapelets and detection modes utilizing autodifferentiation (ad), generalizing the formalism to include a family of shear estimators with corrections for detection and selection biases. Using the ad capability of jax, it calculates the full Hessian matrix of the non-linear observables, which improves the previously presented second-order noise bias correction in the shear estimation. As an illustration of the power of the new anacal framework, we optimize the effective galaxy number density in the space of the generalized shear estimators using an LSST-like galaxy image simulation for the 10 yr LSST. For the generic shear estimator, the magnitude of the multiplicative bias |m| is below 3 × 10 –3 (99.7 per cent confidence interval), and the effective galaxy number density is improved by 5 per cent. We also discuss some planned future additions to the anacal software suite to extend its applicability beyond the fpfs measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increasing the power of weak lensing data with multipole-based intrinsic alignment estimators

ABSTRACT It has long been known that galaxy shapes align coherently with the large-scale density field. Characterizing this effect is essential to interpreting measurements of weak gravitational lensing, the deflection of light from distant galaxies by matter overdensities along the line of sight, as it also produces coherent galaxy alignments that we wish to interpret in terms of a cosmological model. Existing direct measurements of intrinsic alignments using galaxy samples with high-quality shape and redshift measurements typically use well-understood but sub-optimal projected estimators, which do not make good use of the information in the data when comparing those estimators to theoretical models. We demonstrate a more optimal estimator, based on a multipole expansion of the correlation functions or power spectra, for direct measurements of galaxy intrinsic alignments. We show that even using the lowest order multipole alone increases the significance of inferred model parameters using simulated and real data, without any additional modelling complexity. We apply this estimator to measurements of parameters of the non-linear alignment model using data from the Sloan Digital Sky survey, demonstrating consistent results with a factor of ∼2 greater precision in parameter fits to intrinsic alignments models. This result is functionally equivalent to quadrupling the survey area, but without the attendant costs – thereby demonstrating the value in using this new estimator in current and future intrinsic alignments measurements using spectroscopic galaxy samples.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical estimates of the binary properties of rotational variables

ABSTRACT We present a model to estimate the average primary masses, companion mass ranges, the inclination limit for recognizing a rotational variable, and the primary mass spreads for populations of binary stars. The model fits a population’s binary mass function distribution and allows for a probability that some mass functions are incorrectly estimated. Using tests with synthetic data, we assess the model’s sensitivity to each parameter, finding that we are most sensitive to the average primary mass and the minimum companion mass, with less sensitivity to the inclination limit and little to no sensitivity to the primary mass spread. We apply the model to five populations of binary spotted rotational variables identified in ASAS-SN, computing their binary mass functions using RV data from APOGEE. Their average primary mass estimates are consistent with our expectations based on their CMD locations ($\sim 0.75 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for lower main sequence primaries and $\sim 0.9$–$1.2 \, {\rm M}_{\odot }$ for RS CVn and sub-subgiants). Their companion mass range estimates allow companion masses down to $M_2/M_1\simeq 0.1$, although the main sequence population may have a higher minimum mass fraction ($\sim 0.4$). We see weak evidence of an inclination limit $\gtrsim 50^{\circ }$ for the main sequence and sub-subgiant groups and no evidence of an inclination limit in the other groups. No groups show strong evidence for a preferred primary mass spread. We conclude by demonstrating that the approach will provide significantly better estimates of the primary mass and the minimum mass ratio and reasonable sensitivity to the inclination limit with 10 times as many systems.

Phillips, Anya (ORCID:000900051914974X)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Latent bone modelling for estimation of plutonium concentration in skeleton of former nuclear workers

Abstract The skeleton is a major plutonium retention site in the human body. Estimation of the total plutonium activity in the skeleton is a challenging problem. For most tissue donors at the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries, a limited number of bone samples is available. The skeleton activity is calculated using plutonium activity concentration (Cskel) and skeleton weight. In this study, latent bone modelling was used to estimate Cskel from the limited number of analysed bone samples. Data from 13 non-osteoporotic whole-body donors were used to develop latent bone model (LBM) to estimate Cskel for seven cases with four to eight analysed bone samples. LBM predictions were compared to Cskel estimated using an arithmetic mean in terms of accuracy and precision. For the studied cases, LBM offered a significant reduction of uncertainty of Cskel estimate.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bias-hardened estimators of patchy screening profiles

Detecting anisotropic screening of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) holds the promise of revealing the distribution of gas in the Universe, characterizing the complex processes of galaxy formation and feedback, and studying the epoch of reionization. Estimators for inhomogeneous screening, including some recently proposed small-scale (stacked) estimators, are quadratic or higher order in the CMB temperature or polarization fields and are therefore subject to contamination from CMB lensing. We review the origin of this lensing bias and show that, when stacking on unWISE galaxies, the expected lensing bias dominates the signal if left unmitigated. Hardening techniques that null the lensing bias have been proposed for standard quadratic estimators, whereas only approximate methods have been proposed for stacked estimators. In conclusion, we review these techniques and apply the former to stacked estimators, presenting several strategies (including the optimal strategy) to null lensing contamination when stacking on any large-scale structure tracer.

Cosmic microwave background↗

DOE OSTI2021

Consistency testing for robust phase estimation

In this work, we present an extension to the robust phase estimation protocol, which can identify incorrect results that would otherwise lie outside the expected statistical range. Robust phase estimation is increasingly a method of choice for applications such as estimating the effective process parameters of noisy hardware, but its robustness is dependent on the noise satisfying certain threshold assumptions. We provide consistency checks that can indicate when those thresholds have been violated, which can be difficult or impossible to test directly. We test these consistency checks for several common noise models, and identify two possible checks with high accuracy in locating the point in a robust phase estimation run at which further estimates should not be trusted. One of these checks may be chosen based on resource availability, or they can be used together in order to provide additional verification.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lower bias, lower noise CMB lensing with foreground-hardened estimators

Extragalactic foregrounds in temperature maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) severely limit the ability of standard estimators to reconstruct the weak lensing potential. These foregrounds are not fully removable by multifrequency cleaning or masking and can lead to large biases if not properly accounted for. For foregrounds made of a number of unclustered point sources, an estimator for the source amplitude can be derived and deprojected, removing any bias to the lensing reconstruction. We show with simulations that all of the extragalactic foregrounds in temperature can be approximated by a collection of sources with identical profiles, and that a simple bias hardening technique is effective at reducing any bias to lensing, at a minimal noise cost. In this work, we compare the performance and bias to other methods such as "shear-only" reconstruction, and discuss how to jointly deproject any arbitrary number of foregrounds, each with an arbitrary profile. In particular, for a Simons Observatory-like experiment foreground-hardened estimators allow us to extend the maximum multipole used in the reconstruction, increasing the overall statistical power by ~50% over the standard quadratic estimator, both in auto and cross-correlation. We conclude that source hardening outperforms the standard lensing quadratic estimator both in auto- A nd cross-correlation, and in terms of lensing signal-to-noise and foreground bias.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining gravity with a new precision 𝐸 𝐺 estimator using Planck + SDSS BOSS data

The 𝐸 𝐺 statistic is a discriminating probe of gravity developed to test the prediction of general relativity (GR) for the relation between gravitational potential and clustering on the largest scales in the observable Universe. We present a novel high-precision estimator for the 𝐸 𝐺 statistic using CMB lensing and galaxy clustering correlations that carefully matches the effective redshifts across the different measurement components to minimize corrections. A suite of detailed tests is performed to characterize the estimator’s accuracy, its sensitivity to assumptions and analysis choices, and the non-Gaussianity of the estimator’s uncertainty is characterized. After finalization of the estimator, it is applied to Planck CMB lensing and SDSS CMASS and LOWZ galaxy data. We report the first harmonic space measurement of 𝐸 𝐺 using the LOWZ sample and CMB lensing and also updated constraints using the final CMASS sample and the latest Planck CMB lensing map. We find $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+CMASS}_{𝐺}$ = 0.3⁢6$^{+0.06}_{−0.05}$⁢(68.27%) and $\hat{𝐸}$$^{Planck+LOWZ}_{𝐺}$ = 0.4⁢0$^{+0.11}_{−0.09}$⁢(68.27%), with additional subdominant systematic error budget estimates of 2% and 3%, respectively. Using Ω m,0 constraints from Planck and SDSS BAO observations, Λ⁢CDM-GR predicts 𝐸$^{GR}_ {𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.555) = 0.401 ± 0.005 and 𝐸$^{GR}_{𝐺}$⁡(𝑧 =0.316) = 0.452 ± 0.005 at the effective redshifts of the CMASS and LOWZ based measurements. We report the measurement to be in good statistical agreement with the Λ⁢CDM-GR prediction and report that the measurement is also consistent with the more general GR prediction of scale independence for 𝐸 𝐺 . Furthermore, this work provides a carefully constructed and calibrated statistic with which 𝐸 𝐺 measurements can be confidently and accurately obtained with upcoming survey data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improving neutrino energy estimation of charged-current interaction events with recurrent neural networks in MicroBooNE

We present a deep learning-based method for estimating the neutrino energy of charged-current neutrino-argon interactions. We employ a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture for neutrino energy estimation in the MicroBooNE experiment, utilizing liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) detector technology. Traditional energy estimation approaches in LArTPCs, which largely rely on reconstructing and summing visible energies, often experience sizable biases and resolution smearing because of the complex nature of neutrino interactions and the detector response. The estimation of neutrino energy can be improved after considering the kinematics information of reconstructed final-state particles. Utilizing kinematic information of reconstructed particles, the deep learning-based approach shows improved resolution and reduced bias for the muon neutrino Monte Carlo simulation sample compared to the traditional approach. In order to address the common concern about the effectiveness of this method on experimental data, the RNN-based energy estimator is further examined and validated with dedicated data-simulation consistency tests using MicroBooNE data. We also assess its potential impact on a neutrino oscillation study after accounting for all statistical and systematic uncertainties and show that it enhances physics sensitivity. This method has good potential to improve the performance of other physics analyses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

On Projection of Safe Operation for Grid-Following Inverters - Grid Parameter Estimation

This work investigates the projection of safe operation for grid-following inverters using a reference model. This work applies recursive-least square and model reference adaptive estimation techniques to estimate the unknown grid parameters. The estimated grid parameters are used in a dynamic reference model to project the safe operation of the inverter. This work also demonstrates that the controller nonlinearity and parameter variations can cause unsafe operations, such as unexpected instability at low power levels, namely hidden mode of instability. This instability issue in the nominal operating range may occur for given control parameters in a weak-grid condition. The dynamic reference model for PQ-controlled inverters is applied to analyze this instability issue using the estimated grid parameters. Both adaptive identification techniques can estimate the unknown parameters accurately, and the dynamic reference model can safeguard inverters from an unsafe operation, i.e., hidden instability, by examining the incoming new power setpoints before engaging them to the local controller. The findings are experimentally verified using a small-scale two-level 208 V, 5 kVA inverter feeding a 12 kW NHR 9410 power grid emulator.

Hossen, Tareq↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cycle-by-cycle Delay Estimation at Signalized Intersections by using Machine Learning and Simulated Video Detection Data

Accurate estimation of delay is crucial for efficient traffic signal operations. Estimation of delay in the real-time manner using traditional loop detectors requires advanced detectors (in addition to stop-bar detection). In cases when this detection layout is not in place, delay estimates are approximated with a lower accuracy. Video detection is one of the most frequently deployed detection systems at signalized intersections in recent years. In most cases video detection operates in the same way as traditional inductive loops. However, when coupled with computer vision algorithms, video detection systems could be used to retrieve additional information (e.g., vehicular arrivals and departures) that cannot be taken out from the conventional systems (e.g., long stop-bar loop detectors). Although present for several decades, video detection data were not frequently examined for delay estimation purposes. In this study, we proposed a novel delay estimation model which can be developed with only data from stop-bar video detectors. Relevant data were collected from a simulation model of 11 signalized intersections at downtown Chattanooga, TN and processed to create needed inputs for model development. With the use of multigene genetic programming the authors developed a delay model that outperforms accuracy of multi regression model. Furthermore, authors evaluated the developed model by comparison with the other benchmark delay models, such as HCM and approach delay model. It was found that the developed MGGP delay model outperforms benchmark models for a wide range of traffic and signal operation conditions.

Erdagi, Ismet Goksad↗

DOE OSTI2023

Towards Smart Grids Enhanced Situation Awareness: A Bi-Level Quasi-Static State Estimation Model

Smart Grid situational awareness is provided by Energy Management Systems. A core process of these systems is State Estimation. The great majority of state estimators model the Smart Grid through a set of nonlinear algebraic equations, named the measurement model. Problem formulation considers the Gauss solution. Several model improvements have been presented regarding the Gauss solution, aiming between others to provide measurement noise robustness to the state estimation process. While considerable effort has been focused on such developments, state estimation is still constrained by the implicit modelling error, and thus inevitably vulnerable to cyber-threats. In this work, a state estimation bi-level formal model is presented towards Smart Grids enhanced situational awareness considering the concepts of synthetic measurements and innovation. Comparative test results with the state-of-the-art on the IEEE 14-bus system are presented highlighting improved situational awareness to bad data. Easy-to-implement model, without hard-to-derive parameters, built-on the classic weighted least squares solution, highlight potential aspects for real-life implementation.

cyber security↗

DOE OSTI2024

Distribution System State Estimation Using a Multiple Iteration Extended Kalman Filter Approach

To support the operation of modern distribution systems, operators require real-time visibility into system states. Due to a lack of measurements and unbalanced operation, the state estimation in distribution systems is challenging as compared to transmission systems. This paper proposes the utilization of a Multiple Iteration - Extended Kalman Filter based approach for the distribution system state estimation. This modified version of the baseline extended Kalman filter iterates over the update step multiple times thereby reducing the estimation error. The proposed algorithm along with the auxiliary algorithms such as bad data detection is integrated into a co-simulation environment. Case studies show that the proposed state estimation method can result in a lesser estimation error as compared to the baseline approach.

Bhatti, Bilal Ahmad↗

DOE OSTI2020

Joint Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation in a Community

Distribution grid planning, control, and optimization require accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation and electric load in the system. Most of the small residential solar PV systems are installed behind-the-meter making only the net load readings available to the utilities. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for joint disaggregation of the net load readings of a group of customers into the solar PV generation and electric load. Our algorithm synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model for individual solar PV generation estimation with a statistical model for joint load estimation. The electric loads for a group of customers are estimated jointly by a mixed hidden Markov model (MHMM) which enables modeling the general load consumption behavior present in all customers while acknowledging the individual differences. At the same time, the model can capture the change in load patterns over a time period by the hidden Markov states. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is evaluated using the net load, electric load, and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. Testing results show that our proposed method reduces the mean squared error of state-of-the-art net-load disaggregation algorithms by 67%.

behind-the-meter solar generation↗