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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Design of a Three-Layer Impactor for Material Strength Measurements at Multi-Megabar Pressures

Off-Hugoniot loading methods for dynamic compression have been a topic of interest for many years as a means of accessing high pressures without melting a material. Simulations and an initial test experiment of a three-layer gas-gun impactor suitable for use in measuring dynamic material strength at multi-megabar pressures are described. As shown through ARES hydrocode simulations, an impactor consisting of a low-, medium-, and high-impedance material, such as TPX, Al, and Ta or Pt, can produce a quasi-isentropic loading path up to 4.6 Mbar pressure with a low homologous temperature (T/T melt = 0.1–0.25). These impactors can also be tailored to create a pressure drive suitable for a Lagrangian sound speed experiment. Simulated in-situ velocities were analyzed to determine the change in calculated strength due to non-uniformity in the impactor, which provides a measure of error sensitivity. An initial test of a three-layer projectile onto a flat target at 4.4 km/s impact velocity is reported. Finally, while the impactor incurred some delamination during firing, the measured sample/window interface velocity generally agrees with the simulated peak velocity and subsequent release, indicating the feasibility of this approach for measuring material strength.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon–Cerrado border

Abstract. Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest–savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon–Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961–1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948–2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. Furthermore, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon–Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Variation in Morphology and Kinetics of Granular Bainite with Welding Thermal Cycles in High-Nb Fire-Resistant Steel: Experiments and Theoretical Calculations

The microstructure and kinetics of granular bainite (GB) were investigated in novel fire-resistant steel containing high niobium and subjected to simulated welding thermal cycles. The dilatometric data were analyzed to determine the activation energy and Avrami exponents. It was observed that austenite transformed to GB over a wide range cooling rates of 0.5-100 K/s. Theoretical calculations indicated that Avrami exponent (n) decreased with increased transformed volume fraction (f{sub b}) and cooling rate. At a moderate cooling rate of 20-6 K/s, bainitic ferrite as sheaves formed from austenite and the corresponding Avrami exponent was 2 < n < 3. Martensite in martensite/austenite constituent formed with Avrami exponent n ~ 1. At the fastest cooling rate of 50 K/s, lath bainitic ferrite and film-like retained austenite (RA) were obtained with the corresponding Avrami exponent n ~ 1. At lower cooling of 1 and 0.5 K/s, plate-like bainitic ferrite and block-like microphase composed of lamellar RA and ferrite were obtained with Avrami exponent n > 3. The local activation energy for austenite transformation to bainitic ferrite decreased from ~ 198 to ~ 182 kJ/mol with increasing f{sub b} from 0.05 to 0.95, while the local activation energy for austenite transformation to martensite decreased from ~ 80 to ~ 71 kJ/mol with increasing f{sub b} from 0.05 to 0.95.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Testing the Recovery of Intrinsic Galaxy Sizes and Masses of z ∼ 2 Massive Galaxies Using Cosmological Simulations

Accurate measurements of galaxy masses and sizes are key to tracing galaxy evolution over time. Cosmological zoom-in simulations provide an ideal test bed for assessing the recovery of galaxy properties from observations. Here, we utilize galaxies with M{sub ∗}∼10{sup 10}--10{sup 11.5} M{sub ⊙} at z ∼ 1.7–2 from the MassiveFIRE cosmological simulation suite, part of the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project. Using mock multi-band images, we compare intrinsic galaxy masses and sizes to observational estimates. We find that observations accurately recover stellar masses, with a slight average underestimate of ∼0.06 dex and a∼0.15 dex scatter. Recovered half-light radii agree well with intrinsic half-mass radii when averaged over all viewing angles, with a systematic offset of ∼0.1 dex (with the half-light radii being larger) and a scatter of ∼0.2 dex. When using color gradients to account for mass-to-light variations, recovered half-mass radii also exceed the intrinsic half-mass radii by ∼0.1 dex. However, if not properly accounted for, aperture effects can bias size estimates by ∼0.1 dex. No differences are found between the mass and size offsets for star-forming and quiescent galaxies. Variations in viewing angle are responsible for ∼25% of the scatter in the recovered masses and sizes. Our results thus suggest that the intrinsic scatter in the mass–size relation may have previously been overestimated by ∼25%. Moreover, orientation-driven scatter causes the number density of very massive galaxies to be overestimated by ∼0.5 dex at M{sub ∗}∼10{sup 11.5} M{sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mercury Stable Isotope Fractionation During Coal Combustion in Coal-Fired Boilers: Reconciling Atmospheric Hg Isotope Observations with Hg Isotope Fractionation Theory

Mercury (Hg) stable isotope is a useful tool to understand the transformation of atmospheric Hg. The observation on the enrichment of heavier isotopes in gaseous elemental Hg (GEM) relative to oxidized Hg{sup II} species in atmosphere cannot be convincingly explained by isotope fractionation of Hg redox processes. This review shows that the large Hg isotope mass dependent fractionation (MDF) in coal-fired boilers is one of the underlying reasons. The reported Hg isotope data of feed coals and their combustion products are first summarized to give a general overview of how Hg isotopes fractionate before Hg discharge from coal-fired boilers. Then, predictive MDF models are discussed to simulate δ{sup 202}Hg values of different Hg species in coal combustion flue gases. The discharged GEM is predicted to have the highest δ{sup 202}Hg followed by gaseous Hg{sup II} and particulate-bound Hg{sup II}, which is in consistent with the observed MDF pattern of atmospheric Hg species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of Equation-of-States on Supercritical CO2 Combustion Mixtures

Abstract Fossil fuel based direct-fired supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles are gaining the attention of industry, academia, and government due to their remarkable efficiency and carbon capture at high-source temperatures. Modeling plays an important role in the development of sCO2 combustors because experiments are very expensive at the designed operating conditions of these direct-fired cycles. Inaccurate density estimates are detrimental to the simulation output. Hence, this work focuses on comprehensive evaluation of the influence and applicability of various equation-of-states (EOS) which are being used in the supercritical combustion modeling literature. A state-of-the-art supercritical combustion modeling methodology is used to simulate counter-flow supercritical CO2 flames by using various equation-of-states. The results show that using the corresponding state principle to evaluate compressibility factor is not accurate. Also, van der Waal type EOSs predictions can be as accurate as complex Benedict–Webb–Rubin EOSs; hence van der Waal EOSs are more suitable to simulate sCO2 combustor simulations. Non-ideal effects are significant under the operating conditions considered in this work. The choice of EOS significantly influences the flame structure and heat release rate. Also, assuming the binary interaction parameter as zero is reasonable in sCO2 combustion simulations.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2016

Wildland Fire Induced Heating of Dome 375 Perma-Con®

AET-1 was tasked by ADEM with determining the temperature rise in the drum contents of drums stored in the Dome 375 Perma-Con® at TA-54 given a wildland fire. The wildland fire causes radiative and convective heating on the Perma-Con® exterior. The wildland fire time histories for the radiative and convective heating environment were provided to AET-1 by EES-16. If the calculated temperature rise results in a drum content temperature over 40 °C, then ADEM desires a design solution to ensure the peak temperature remains below 40 °C. An axi-symmetric FE simulation was completed to determine the peak temperature of the contents of a drum stored in the Dome 375 Perma-Con® during a wildland fire event. Three wildland fire time histories for the radiative and convective heat transfer were provided by EES-16 and were inputs for the FE simulation. The maximum drum content temperature reached was found to be 110 °C while using inputs from the SiteG_2ms_4ign_wind_from_west.xlsx time history input and not including the SWB in the model. Including the SWB in the results in a peak drum content temperature of 61 °C for the SiteG_2ms_4ign_wind_from_west.xlsx inputs. EES-16 decided that by using fuel mitigation efforts, such as mowing the grass and shrubs near the Perma-Con® they could reduce the shrub/grass fuel loading near the Perma-Con® from 1.46 kg/m 2 to 0.146 kg/m 2 and by using a less conservative fuel loading for the debris field inside the Dome 375 perimeter, reducing it from 0.58 kg/m2 to 0.058 kg/m 2 in their model. They also greatly increased the resolution of their radiation model and increased the accuracy of their model’s required convergence value. Using this refined input the maximum drum content temperature was found to be 28 °C with no SWB present in the model. Additionally, this refined input model was modified to include worst case emissivity values for the concrete, drum and Perma-Con® interior, along with adding a 91 second long residual radiative heat flux of 2,000 W/m2 to the end of the refined wildland fire input. For this case the maximum drum content temperature was found to be 32 °C. For Rev. 2 of this calculation and additional simulation was run that included a cable fire heat flux on the exterior of the Perma-Con® that was calculated by FP-DO. Including the cable fire heat flux in the model without the SWB resulted in a peak drum content temperature over time of 43 °C. Including the SWB in the simulation with the cable fire heat flux resulted in a peak drum content temperature over time of 35 °C.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Temporal effects of disturbance on community composition in simulated stage‐structured plant communities

Abstract In an era of global environmental change, understanding how disturbance affects the dynamics of ecological communities is crucial. However, few studies have theoretically explored the potential influence of disturbance including both intensity and frequency on compositional change over time in communities with stage structure. A spatially explicit, individual‐based model was constructed incorporating the various demographic responses to disturbance of plants at two different growth stages: seedlings and adults. In the model, we assumed that individuals within each stage were demographically equivalent (neutral) but differed between stages. We simulated a common phenomenon that seedlings suffered more from disturbance such as grazing and fire than adults. We showed how stage‐structured communities of seedlings and adults responded to disturbance with various levels of disturbance frequency and intensity. In “undisturbed” simulations, the relationship between average species abundance (defined here as the total number of individuals divided by species richness) and community composition turnover (measured by the Bray–Curtis similarity index) was asymptotic. However, in strongly “disturbed” simulations with the between‐disturbance intervals greater than one, this relationship became unimodal. Stage‐dependent response to disturbance underlay the above discrepancy between undisturbed and disturbed communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Science in 60 – Simulating Flames Helps Tame Future Wildfires

FIRETEC presents a new way of studying fire and learning how to better manage and cope with it. The model provides additional scientific input for decisions by policymakers working in land management, water resources and energy. The team hopes it will eventually assist fire and fuel management operations. This research is done in partnership with the USDA Forest Service, Air Force Wildland Fire Center, INRA and Canadian Forest Service.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NFPA Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) For Emergency Responders

The National Fire Protection Association, with support from the Department of Energy, executed a multi-year initiative to develop, enhance, and disseminate Distributed Energy Resources Safety Training (DERST) tools for U.S. emergency responders. As Distributed Energy Resources (DER)—such as solar photovoltaics, battery energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs), and associated infrastructure—become increasingly prevalent, the NFPA identified a critical need for up-to-date standardized, accessible, and effective safety training tailored for the fire service and related public safety professionals. The project delivered a comprehensive suite of educational resources to improve responders’ abilities to safely manage DER-related incidents. This included: • Revised Modular Training Courses: Updated classroom-based DER safety courses, now modular and accessible nationwide through fire academies and the North American Fire Training Directors (NAFTD) network. • Live Burn Testing & Research: A full-scale controlled burn of a DER-equipped residential structure provided real-world data and insights, forming the basis for updated best practices. • A Gamified Simulation Tool – Firefighters Incident Response Simulation Tool (FIRST): A first-of-its-kind, multiplayer, scenario-based simulation using the Unreal Engine 5.0 to train responders in a realistic virtual, multi-DER incident environment. • Field Familiarization Software Tools & Prop Guide: Digital DER field familiarization evolutions software guide and a prop development manual to support field-based DER training exercises, enhancing responders' hands-on familiarity with DER infrastructure and collaboration on virtual incident responses. • National Dissemination Strategy: Strategic partnerships with NAFTD, Vector Solutions, and others enabled wide-scale distribution, with over 5,000 departments accessing resources and 1,100+ departments adopting the simulator in the first seven months. Also provided a web portal for easy access to all training and simulation programs developed under this grant for the U.S. responder community. Key findings from the project—particularly from the burn test—led to paradigm shifts in fire response tactics. For example, traditional approaches to garage fires may be hazardous if DERs are present, due to explosive off gassing and thermal runaway risks. The new training emphasizes scene assessment, stand-off approaches, thermal imaging verification, and careful post-incident cooling of DER components to prevent reignition. This initiative has had a significant national impact, raising awareness, enhancing preparedness, and supporting safer DER incident response practices. Significant engagement from the media, public safety organizations, and PBS coverage has further amplified the reach and adoption of NFPA’s DER safety training, tools, and simulations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Biomass burning aerosols and the low-visibility events in Southeast Asia

Abstract. Fires including peatland burning in Southeast Asia have become a major concern to the general public as well as governments in the region. This is because aerosols emitted from such fires can cause persistent haze events under certain weather conditions in downwind locations, degrading visibility and causing human health issues. In order to improve our understanding of the spatiotemporal coverage and influence of biomass burning aerosols in Southeast Asia, we have used surface visibility and particulate matter concentration observations, supplemented by decade-long (2003 to 2014) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a fire aerosol module, driven by high-resolution biomass burning emission inventories. We find that in the past decade, fire aerosols are responsible for nearly all events with very low visibility (< 7 km). Fire aerosols alone are also responsible for a substantial fraction of low-visibility events (visibility < 10 km) in the major metropolitan areas of Southeast Asia: up to 39 % in Bangkok, 36 % in Kuala Lumpur, and 34 % in Singapore. Biomass burning in mainland Southeast Asia accounts for the largest contribution to total fire-produced PM2.5 in Bangkok (99 %), while biomass burning in Sumatra is a major contributor to fire-produced PM2.5 in Kuala Lumpur (50 %) and Singapore (41 %). To examine the general situation across the region, we have further defined and derived a new integrated metric for 50 cities of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): the haze exposure day (HED), which measures the annual exposure days of these cities to low visibility (< 10 km) caused by particulate matter pollution. It is shown that HEDs have increased steadily in the past decade across cities with both high and low populations. Fire events alone are found to be responsible for up to about half of the total HEDs. Our results suggest that in order to improve the overall air quality in Southeast Asia, mitigation policies targeting both biomass burning and fossil fuel burning sources need to be implemented.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing carbon storage through proactively managing fire-prone coniferous mountain forests

Mountain ecosystems typically serve as carbon (C) sinks. However, studies also suggest that they could be C sources due to climate warming, drought and insect-related mortality, wildfires, and management actions. We applied the Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), a process-based dynamic vegetation-ecosystem model, to investigate the role of ecosystem management in C storage under Mediterranean climate over the 21 st century. We modified LPJ-GUESS to include implementing mechanical thinning by vegetation size classes, components, and types along with a new mechanistic fire-occurrence model that accounts for wind speed and lightning ignition. Simulations show that mechanical thinning or prescribed fire performed 5-20 years in advance of a high-severity wildfire reduced direct wildfire C emissions by 38-66 %. Our results also show that long-term management actions repeated every 5-20 years, including thinning relatively small trees (diameters up to 7 inches or ∼178 mm), can maintain stable C levels in the forest and lower dead-fuel amounts. We found that, although prescribed fire mitigated wildfire severity, ecosystem C storage from reduced wildfire emissions can be outweighed by the added emissions from the prescribed fire themselves. Thinning plus removing and sequestering the thinned biomass can ensure that forests act as net C sinks through the end of the 21 st century. However, addition of prescribed fire is needed to reduce understory and lower the projected extent of high-severity wildfire. Achieving the competing goals of reducing wildfire and making the Sierra Nevada long-term C sink can be advanced through carefully coordinated thinning, sequestration of thinned biomass, and prescribed fire.

Climate solutions↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating the Acute Health Impacts of Fire-Originated PM 2.5 Exposure During the 2017 California Wildfires: Sensitivity to Choices of Inputs

Exposure to wildfire smoke increases the risk of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Health impact assessments, used to inform decision-making processes, characterize the health impacts of environmental exposures by combining preexisting epidemiological concentration–response functions (CRFs) with estimates of exposure. These two key inputs influence the magnitude and uncertainty of the health impacts estimated, but for wildfire-related impact assessments the extent of their impact is largely unknown. We first estimated the number of respiratory, cardiovascular, and asthma hospital admissions attributable to fire-originated PM 2.5 exposure in central California during the October 2017 wildfires, using Monte Carlo simulations to quantify uncertainty with respect to the exposure and epidemiological inputs. We next conducted sensitivity analyses, comparing four estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 and two CRFs, wildfire and nonwildfire specific, to understand their impact on the estimation of excess admissions and sources of uncertainty. We estimate the fires accounted for an excess 240 (95% CI: 114, 404) respiratory, 68 (95% CI: -10, 159) cardiovascular, and 45 (95% CI: 18, 81) asthma hospital admissions, with 56% of admissions occurring in the Bay Area. Although differences between impact assessment methods are not statistically significant, the admissions estimates' magnitude is particularly sensitive to the CRF specified while the uncertainty is most sensitive to estimates of fire-originated PM 2.5 . Not accounting for the exposure surface's uncertainty leads to an underestimation of the uncertainty of the health impacts estimated. Employing context-specific CRFs and using accurate exposure estimates that combine multiple data sets generates more certain estimates of the acute health impacts of wildfires.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Gaia Reveals a Metal-rich, in situ Component of the Local Stellar Halo

We use the first Gaia data release, combined with the RAVE and APOGEE spectroscopic surveys, to investigate the origin of halo stars within ≲3 kpc from the Sun. We identify halo stars kinematically as moving at a relative speed of at least 220 km s{sup −1} with respect to the local standard of rest. These stars are generally less metal-rich than the disk, but surprisingly, half of our halo sample is comprised of stars with [Fe/H]>−1. The orbital directions of these metal-rich halo stars are preferentially aligned with the disk rotation, in sharp contrast with the intrinsically isotropic orbital distribution of the metal-poor halo stars. We find similar properties in the Latte cosmological zoom-in simulation of a Milky Way-like galaxy from the FIRE project. In Latte, metal-rich halo stars formed primarily inside of the solar circle, whereas lower-metallicity halo stars preferentially formed at larger distances (extending beyond the virial radius). This suggests that metal-rich halo stars in the solar neighborhood actually formed in situ within the Galactic disk, rather than having been accreted from satellite systems. These stars, currently on halo-like orbits, therefore have likely undergone substantial radial migration/heating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Accuracy Simulations to Model Pyrometallurgical Processes in a Secondary Lead Reverberatory Furnace

The US manufacturing industry produces about 1.3 million tons of refined lead each year using secondary sources consisting mainly of lead batteries. ORNL is partnering with Gopher resource, the second largest lead recycling company in the United States, and GTI, to develop a high-fidelity CFD model of a directly fired, reverberatory-style, secondary lead furnace. These High Performance Computing (HPC) simulations are aimed to use first principles modeling for combustion and melting processes of the secondary lead feed while accounting for complex interphase interactions between the gas, solid charge (lead) material, slag, and metal phases. Through validation against operating plant data, this effort will enable significant improvements in design, operational parameters, and energy efficiency, thus improving productivity and refractory lifetime of secondary lead melting furnaces. Estimated savings/reduction of, at least, 1 trillion BTU, 1 million ton/year of greenhouse gas emissions, and $\$50$ million/year to the US lead industry can be expected. ORNL resources and expertise in high-performance computing and multicomponent, multiphase flows were utilized to realize this goal while advancing the understanding of the smelting and melting processes occurring within the furnace.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

Stacked Star Formation Rate Profiles of Bursty Galaxies Exhibit “Coherent” Star Formation

In a recent work based on 3200 stacked Hα maps of galaxies at z∼1, Nelson et al. find evidence for “coherent star formation”: the stacked star formation rate (SFR) profiles of galaxies above (below) the “star formation main sequence” (MS) are above (below) that of galaxies on the MS at all radii. One might interpret this result as inconsistent with highly bursty star formation and evidence that galaxies evolve smoothly along the MS rather than crossing it many times. We analyze six simulated galaxies at z∼1 from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) project in a manner analogous to the observations to test whether the above interpretations are correct. The trends in stacked SFR profiles are qualitatively consistent with those observed. However, SFR profiles of individual galaxies are much more complex than the stacked profiles: the former can be flat or even peak at large radii because of the highly clustered nature of star formation in the simulations. Moreover, the SFR profiles of individual galaxies above (below) the MS are not systematically above (below) those of MS galaxies at all radii. We conclude that the time-averaged coherent star formation evident stacks of observed galaxies is consistent with highly bursty, clumpy star formation of individual galaxies and is not evidence that galaxies evolve smoothly along the MS.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems

Here, the occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterraneantype ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits and compound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrubland formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire-drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire-drought (synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence-as opposed to chronic dryness-can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the longterm coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrubland expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire-drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗