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At least 289 records · Page 16

Southern California Health & Air Quality: Using Remote Sensing to Detect the Frequency and Drivers of Red Tide Blooms in California to Assist in the Management of Human and Marine Exposure to Algal Toxins

In 2020, the dinoflagellate species Lingulodinium polyedra was measured at unprecedented levels off the southern California coast, raising concern for local communities. At high levels, L. polyedra can cause marine life mortality, food-borne illness, and respiratory-related health risks in humans. In partnership with the California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Southwest Fisheries Science Center, the California Department of Public Health, and the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography, this project utilized satellite imagery to visualize and analyze spatiotemporal trends of historical red tide events associated with L. polyedra. Using the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership’s (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), Aqua’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Global Change Observation Mission – Climate (GCOM-C) Second Generation Global Imager (SGLI), the team assessed the validity of using multiple sensors in detecting chlorophyll-a as a proxy for dinoflagellate dominated-algal blooms. The results suggest that VIIRS imagery processed using the Color Index algorithm from Hu et al. (2013), amongst all other algorithms and Earth observations assessed, shows the most promise in identifying L. polyedra blooms. The end products included an ArcGIS Dashboard and Google Earth Engine tool that when combined, provided users with spatial and temporal trends, interactive interfaces to analyze the effectiveness of various sensors and algorithms, and an overall contribution to aid in the management of human health and the economy impacted by harmful algal blooms.

Harmful algal bloom↗

Cosmic ray interactions in the ground: Temporal variations in cosmic ray intensities and geophysical studies

Temporal variations in cosmic ray intensity have been deduced from observations of products of interactions of cosmic ray particles in the Moon, meteorites, and the Earth. Of particular interest is a comparison between the information based on Earth and that based on other samples. Differences are expected at least due to: (1) differences in the extent of cosmic ray modulation, and (2) changes in the geomagnetic dipole field. Any information on the global changes in the terrestrial cosmic ray intensity is therefore of importance. In this paper a possible technique for detecting changes in cosmic ray intensity is presented. The method involves human intervention and is applicable for the past 10,000 yrs. Studies of changes over longer periods of time are possible if supplementary data on age and history of the sample are available using other methods. Also discussed are the possibilities of studying certain geophysical processes, e.g., erosion, weathering, tectonic events based on studies of certain cosmic ray-produced isotopes for the past several million years.

Lal, D.↗

Development of the Double Etalon Fabry-Perot Interferometer for Determining Total and Tropospheric Ozone Concentrations

Measuring and understanding the distribution of ozone through the lower levels of Earth's atmosphere are high priorities in global change and climate research. Of particular interest now is the global distribution of ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Global coverage of the stratospheric ozone is feasible only via remote sensing instruments on a space-based platform. And though extensive monitoring tropospheric ozone is possible using instruments flown aboard conventional aircraft, a space-based system would be significantly less costly and provide information over a much broader area and produce more uniform coverage. Here we describe the prototype of an instrument being developed to monitor, from an orbiting spacecraft, the ozone found in Earth's upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Our new spectrometer is an infrared Fabry-Perot interferometer which uses two synchrounously tuned etalons: a high resolution narrow band device and a lower resolution broader band filtering etalon. The prototype is a scanning device making use of nearly collimated input radiation and a single element detector. As presently configured, it is capable of providing a resolution better than 0.07/cm with a spectral band width approximately 5/cm wide and centered at 1054.7/cm. For the future space-based emission device a modification of the the prototype was to be made to employ innovative circle-to-line detector optics, those developed or in development at UM/SPRL, and a focal plane array detector. These enhancements would enable a simultaneous recording of the entire spectral range of interest, but with simple detection electronics and a significant gain in signal-to-noise over that of the scanning version.

Cook, William↗

(abstract) The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on EOS

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a facility instrument on the Earth Observing System (EOS) P.M. platform. It will be launched into a 705 km high polar orbit in the year 2000. On the platform with AIRS are the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). The three instruments are designed to meet NASA's global change research objectives and NOAA's operational sounding requirements for global weather predictions. AIRS, AMSU, and MHS will provide global tempeature profiles with 1 k rms accuracy in 1 km thick layers in the troposphere and water burden with 10 % accuracy. This is more than a factor of two better than the current operational sounding system, TOVS, and is expected to result in a significant improvement in the medium range forecast accuracy.

remote sensing satellite temperature sounding mois↗

Human and Natural Influences on the Changing Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere

Since the late 1970s, satellite-based instruments have monitored global changes in atmospheric temperature. These measurements reveal multidecadal tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, punctuated by short-term volcanic signals of reverse sign. Similar long- and short-term temperature signals occur in model simulations driven by human-caused changes in atmospheric composition and natural variations in volcanic aerosols. Most previous comparisons of modeled and observed atmospheric temperature changes have used results from individual models and individual observational records. In contrast, we rely on a large multimodel archive and multiple observational datasets. We show that a human-caused latitude/altitude pattern of atmospheric temperature change can be identified with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Results are robust to current uncertainties in models and observations. Virtually all previous research in this area has attempted to discriminate an anthropogenic signal from internal variability. Here, we present evidence that a human-caused signal can also be identified relative to the larger "total" natural variability arising from sources internal to the climate system, solar irradiance changes, and volcanic forcing. Consistent signal identification occurs because both internal and total natural variability (as simulated by state-of-the-art models) cannot produce sustained global-scale tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. Our results provide clear evidence for a discernible human influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗

Global Surface Temperature Change and Uncertainties Since 1861

The objective of this talk is to analyze the warming trend and its uncertainties of the global and hemi-spheric surface temperatures. By the method of statistical optimal averaging scheme, the land surface air temperature and sea surface temperature observational data are used to compute the spatial average annual mean surface air temperature. The optimal averaging method is derived from the minimization of the mean square error between the true and estimated averages and uses the empirical orthogonal functions. The method can accurately estimate the errors of the spatial average due to observational gaps and random measurement errors. In addition, quantified are three independent uncertainty factors: urbanization, change of the in situ observational practices and sea surface temperature data corrections. Based on these uncertainties, the best linear fit to annual global surface temperature gives an increase of 0.61 +/- 0.16 C between 1861 and 2000. This lecture will also touch the topics on the impact of global change on nature and environment. as well as the latest assessment methods for the attributions of global change.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗

Tree Density and Species Decline in the African Sahel Attributable to Climate

Increased aridity and human population have reduced tree cover in parts of the African Sahel and degraded resources for local people. Yet, tree cover trends and the relative importance of climate and population remain unresolved. From field measurements, aerial photos, and Ikonos satellite images, we detected significant 1954-2002 tree density declines in the western Sahel of 18 +/- 14% (P = 0.014, n = 204) and 17 +/- 13% (P = 0.0009, n = 187). From field observations, we detected a significant 1960-2000 species richness decline of 21 +/- 11% (P = 0.0028, n = 14) across the Sahel and a southward shift of the Sahel, Sudan, and Guinea zones. Multivariate analyses of climate, soil, and population showed that temperature most significantly (P < 0.001) explained tree cover changes. Multivariate and bivariate tests and field observations indicated the dominance of temperature and precipitation, supporting attribution of tree cover changes to climate variability. Climate change forcing of Sahel climate variability, particularly the significant (P < 0.05) 1901-2002 temperature increases and precipitation decreases in the research areas, connects Sahel tree cover changes to global climate change. This suggests roles for global action and local adaptation to address ecological change in the Sahel.

tree density declines↗

Linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere

The primary research issue in understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems in global change is analyzing the coupling between processes with vastly differing rates of change, from photosynthesis to community change. Representing this coupling in models is the central challenge to modeling the terrestrial biosphere as part of the earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems participate in climate and in the biogeochemical cycles on several temporal scales. Some of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis is incorporated into plant tissue and is delayed from returning to the atmosphere until it is oxidized by decomposition or fire. This slower (i.e., days to months) carbon loop through the terrestrial component of the carbon cycle, which is matched by cycles of nutrients required by plants and decomposers, affects the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration and imposes a seasonal cycle on that trend. Moreover, this cycle includes key controls over biogenic trace gas production. The structure of terrestrial ecosystems, which responds on even longer time scales (annual to century), is the integrated response to the biogeochemical and environmental constraints that develop over the intermediate time scale. The loop is closed back to the climate system since it is the structure of ecosystems, including species composition, that sets the terrestrial boundary condition in the climate system through modification of surface roughness, albedo, and, to a great extent, latent heat exchange. These separate temporal scales contain explicit feedback loops which may modify ecosystem dynamics and linkages between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The long-term change in climate, resulting from increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (e.g., CO2, CH4, and nitrous oxide (N2O)) will further modify the global environment and potentially induce further ecosystem change. Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models that describe the exchange of water, energy, and biogenic trace gases between the vegetation and the atmosphere at fine time scales. There does not appear to be any obvious way to allow direct reciprocal coupling of atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's), which inherently run with fine time steps, to ecosystem or successional models, which have coarse temporal resolution, without the interposition of physiological canopy models. This is equally true for biogeochemical models of the exchange of carbon dioxide and trace gases. This coupling across time scales is nontrivial and sets the focus for the modeling strategy.

Bretherton, Francis↗

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

Science plan for the Alaska SAR facility program. Phase 1: Data from the first European sensing satellite, ERS-1

Science objectives, opportunities and requirements are discussed for the utilization of data from the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on the European First Remote Sensing Satellite, to be flown by the European Space Agency in the early 1990s. The principal applications of the imaging data are in studies of geophysical processes taking place within the direct-reception area of the Alaska SAR Facility in Fairbanks, Alaska, essentially the area within 2000 km of the receiver. The primary research that will be supported by these data include studies of the oceanography and sea ice phenomena of Alaskan and adjacent polar waters and the geology, glaciology, hydrology, and ecology of the region. These studies focus on the area within the reception mask of ASF, and numerous connections are made to global processes and thus to the observation and understanding of global change. Processes within the station reception area both affect and are affected by global phenomena, in some cases quite critically. Requirements for data processing and archiving systems, prelaunch research, and image processing for geophysical product generation are discussed.

Carsey, Frank D.↗

A toy terrestrial carbon flow model

A generalized carbon flow model for the major terrestrial ecosystems of the world is reported. The model is a simplification of the Century model and the Forest-Biogeochemical model. Topics covered include plant production, decomposition and nutrient cycling, biomes, the utility of the carbon flow model for predicting carbon dynamics under global change, and possible applications to state-and-transition models and environmentally driven global vegetation models.

Parton, William J.↗

Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions over Indo-Gangetic Basin

About 60% of world population reside in Asia, in term of which sheer population density presents a major environmental stress. Economic expansion in this region is, in fact, accompanied by increases in bio-fuel burning, industrial pollution, and land cover and land use changes. With a growth rate of approx. 8%/yr for Indian economy, more than 600 million people from Lahore, Pakistan to Calcutta, India over the Indo-Gangetic Basin have particularly witnessed increased frequencies of floods and droughts as well as a dramatic increase in atmospheric loading of aerosols (i.e., anthropogenic and natural aerosol) in recent decades. This regional change (e.g., aerosol, cloud, precipitation, etc.) will constitute a vital part of the global change in the 21st century. Better understanding of the impacts of aerosols in affecting monsoon climate and water cycles is crucial in providing the physical basis to improve monsoon climate prediction and for disaster mitigation. Based on climate model simulations, absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) play a critical role in affecting interannual and intraseasonal variability of the Indian monsoon. An initiative on the integrated (aerosols, clouds, and precipitation) measurements approach over the Indo-Gangetic Basin will be discussed. An array of ground-based (e.g., AERONET, MPLNET, SMART-COMMIT, etc.) and satellite (e.g., Terra, A-Train, etc.) sensors will be utilized to acquire aerosol characteristics, sources/sinks, and transport processes during the pre-monsoon (April-May, aerosol forcing) season, and to obtain cloud and precipitation properties during the monsoon (May-June, water cycle response) season. Close collaboration with other international programs, such as ABC, CLIVAR, GEWEX, and CEOP in the region is anticipated.

Tsay, S.-C.↗

Radiative Impacts of Cloud Heterogeneity and Overlap in an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

The radiative impacts of introducing horizontal heterogeneity of layer cloud condensate, and vertical overlap of condensate and cloud fraction are examined with the aid of a new radiation package operating in the GEOS-5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model. The impacts are examined in terms of diagnostic top-of-the-atmosphere shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) cloud radiative effect (CRE) calculations for a range of assumptions and parameter specifications about the overlap. The investigation is conducted for two distinct cloud schemes, the one that comes with the standard GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced GEOS-5 distribution, and another which has been recently used experimentally for its enhanced cloud microphysical capabilities; both are coupled to a cloud generator allowing arbitrary cloud overlap specification. We find that cloud overlap radiative impacts are significantly stronger for the operational cloud scheme for which a change of cloud fraction overlap from maximum-random to generalized results to global changes of SW and LW CRE of approximately 4 Watts per square meter, and zonal changes of up to approximately 10 Watts per square meter. This is because of fewer occurrences compared to the other scheme of large layer cloud fractions and of multi-layer situations with large numbers of atmospheric being simultaneously cloudy, conditions that make overlap details more important. The impact on CRE of the details of condensate distribution overlap is much weaker. Once generalized overlap is adopted, both cloud schemes are only modestly sensitive to the exact values of the overlap parameters. We also find that if one of the CRE components is overestimated and the other underestimated, both cannot be driven towards observed values by adjustments to cloud condensate heterogeneity and overlap alone.

Oreopoulos, L.↗

Reports to the nation on our changing planet. Fall 1992, no. 2: Our ozone shield

This document is the second in a series of publications on climate and global change intended for public education. They are a joint effort of the UCAR Office for Interdisciplinary Earth Studies and the NOAA Office of Global Programs. The various roles of atmospheric ozone are described and the mechanisms and consequences of stratospheric ozone depletion are discussed.

Source record↗

Global Distribution and 14-Year Changes in Erythemal Irradiance, UV Atmospheric Transmission, and Total Column Ozone 2005 – 2018 Estimated from OMI and EPIC Observations

Satellite data from the Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) are used to study changes and global distribution of UV erythemal irradiance in mW/m(exp 2) E(ζ,φ,z,t) and the dimensionless UV index (E/25 mWm(exp 2)) over the Earth’s surface as a function of latitude ζ, longitude φ, altitude z, and time t. OMI time series data starting in January 2005 to December 2018 are used to estimate 14-year changes in erythemal irradiance, total column ozone TCO3, scene reflectivity LER, and aerosol absorption τA at specific land sites in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using publicly available OMI data. Estimates of changes in atmospheric transmission ΔCτ(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from OMI measured cloud and haze reflectivity show an increase between 60°S to 45°S almost no average 14-year change from 55°S to 30°N but show an increase from 35°N to 55°N. This implies increased solar insolation at higher latitudes that suggests positive feedback for global warming. Changes in aerosol absorption of UV irradiance ΔCA(ζ,φ,z,t) derived from changes in τA are mostly in the equatorial region and at higher southern latitudes resulting in correlated changes in E. TCO3 derived from OMI data has increased at a rate of 2% per decade for the latitudes between 60°S to 10°N changing to a decrease of 1% per decade between 40°N to 60°N. The result is an average decrease in E(ζ,φ,z,t) at a rate of 2% per decade in the Southern Hemisphere and an increase between 40°N to 60°N. For some specific sites (latitudes from 55°S to 45°N) there has been little or no change in E(ζ,φ,z,t) for the period 2005 – 2018. Nearly half the sites show strong correlation effects of both short- and long-term cloud and absorbing aerosol change as well as anticorrelation with total column ozone change ΔTCO3. Synoptic EPIC data from the sunlit Earth are used to derive ozone and reflectivity needed for global images of the distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from sunrise to sunset centered on the Americas, Europe-Africa, and Asia. EPIC data are used to show the latitudinal distribution of E(ζ,φ,z,t) from the equator to 75° for specific longitudes. Dangerously high amounts of erythemal irradiance (12 < UV index < 18) are found for many low latitude and high-altitude sites (e.g., San Pedro, Chile (2.45 km), La Paz, Bolivia (3.78 km). Lower UV indices at some equatorial or high-altitude sites (e.g., Quito, Ecuador) are moderated by the presence of persistent cloud effects. High UVI levels (UVI > 6) are also found at most mid-latitude sites during the summer months.

Ozone Measuring Instrument (OMI) and Earth Polychr↗

Diversity Buffers Winegrowing Regions from Climate Change Losses

Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Wood et al., Trends Ecol. Evol. 30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjar et al., Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantly Vitis vinifera subspecies vinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.

Morales-Castilla, Ignacio↗

Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) on Aqua substantially reduced forecast track errors. Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. SA is also bringing several state of the art instruments in recent field campaigns to peer under the clouds and study the inner workings of the tropical storms. With the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth science field experiment in 2010 that includes the Global Hawk Unmanned Airborne System (UAS) configured with a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments that are observing and characterizing the lifecycle of hurricanes, we expect significant improvement in our understanding of the track and intensification processes with the assimilation of the satellite and field campaign observations of meteorological parameters in the numerical prediction models.

Putman, William M.↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗