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At least 289 records · Page 16

South Asian Monsoon Response to Regional Aerosol Emission Reductions: Insights From RAMIP

Anthropogenic aerosol and associated precursor gas emissions are already declining in many regions and are likely to decline significantly by 2050, with major implications for regional climate. Unlike greenhouse gases, aerosol impacts are spatially heterogeneous and can influence climate both near emission sources and through remote teleconnections. This is particularly important for the South Asian monsoon system, where both local and remote aerosol changes can significantly affect precipitation patterns. Using simulations from the Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project, we examine how local and remote aerosol emission reductions influence South Asian climate across both pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, including weakening of the elevated heat pump (EHP) mechanism during pre-monsoon months. Our analysis employs 10-member ensembles from 10 CMIP6-era models to compare three experiments with global, South Asian, and East Asian aerosol reductions relative to a high-emission baseline (SSP3-7.0). This experimental design allows us to isolate and quantify the distinct impacts of regional emission changes. Results reveal that global aerosol reductions produce a larger all-India precipitation increase (+0.28 mm day −1 ) than South Asian reductions alone (+0.19 mm day −1 ), with the strongest regional responses over the northern Bay of Bengal, the Western Ghats and Indo-Gangetic Plains. East Asian reductions show uncertain but modest precipitation reductions of 0.2-0.6 mm day −1 over parts of west-central and eastern Indian regions. Pre-monsoon carbonaceous aerosol reductions systematically weaken the EHP, cooling the mid-troposphere over the Himalayan foothills by up to 0.4 K and producing localised anomalous descent that opposes the climatological pre-monsoon ascent. Substantial inter-model diversity exists in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of these responses, highlighting key uncertainties in aerosol–monsoon interactions. The South Asian precipitation response is driven by enhanced land–sea thermal contrast, while the pre-monsoon EHP weakening is attributable exclusively to local South Asian carbonaceous aerosol forcing rather than remote teleconnections. These findings have direct implications for air quality and climate adaptation planning across South Asia as regional aerosol emissions diverge under different development pathways.

cmip6↗

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗

Global net climate effects of anthropogenic reactive nitrogen

Anthropogenic activities have substantially enhanced the loadings of reactive nitrogen (Nr) in the Earth system since pre-industrial times, contributing to widespread eutrophication and air pollution. Increased Nr can also influence global climate through a variety of effects on atmospheric and land processes but the cumulative net climate effect is yet to be unravelled. Here we show that anthropogenic Nr causes a net negative direct radiative forcing of –0.34 [–0.20, –0.50] W m –2 in the year 2019 relative to the year 1850. This net cooling effect is the result of increased aerosol loading, reduced methane lifetime and increased terrestrial carbon sequestration associated with increases in anthropogenic Nr, which are not offset by the warming effects of enhanced atmospheric nitrous oxide and ozone. Future predictions using three representative scenarios show that this cooling effect may be weakened primarily as a result of reduced aerosol loading and increased lifetime of methane, whereas in particular N 2 O-induced warming will probably continue to increase under all scenarios. Our results indicate that future reductions in anthropogenic Nr to achieve environmental protection goals need to be accompanied by enhanced efforts to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to achieve climate change mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opportunities for Clean Energy in Natural Gas Well Operations: Preprint

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce both costs and emissions. Currently, oil and gas directly and indirectly contributes forty-two percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, with over twenty percent of the industry’s emissions coming from operations. Given the opportunity for emissions reductions, this study describes techno-economic analysis evaluating opportunities for distributed energy generation and storage technologies – including solar photovoltaics (PV), distributed wind energy, and battery energy storage – to support companies’ energy cost savings targets, clean energy goals, and energy resiliency needs at hypothetical upstream well sites in the Marcellus Shale in Pennsylvania, both grid-connected and off-grid. These technologies reduce the site’s consumption of grid electricity and natural gas and thus help reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions associated with electricity and natural gas. For each scenario, a cost of avoided emissions was calculated; these values can be compared to internal organizational value placed on emissions reductions, compared to other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, and direct carbon capture and sequestration, and compared to existing (albeit limited) U.S. carbon markets such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard. The study also explores the ability of these electric clean energy technologies to support site resiliency against utility outages.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Selective Electrocatalytic Reduction of Nitrous Oxide to Dinitrogen with an Iron Porphyrin Complex

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is the third largest contributor to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and plays a detrimental role in the depletion of ozone. Despite the contribution of N 2 O as an atmospheric pollutant, there are currently only a few examples of electrochemical N 2 O remediation to N 2 . Herein we report the electrocatalytic deoxygenation of N 2 O by iron tetraphenylporphyrin (FeTPP) to form N 2 with quantitative Faradaic efficiency and an observed rate of 1.91 s –1 . No degradation was observed after controlled potential electrolysis. Mechanistic investigation of the proposed catalytic steps determined that hydrogen-bond donors are critical for accelerating N 2 O activation and that proton transfer is involved in the rate-determining step.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying air quality co-benefits to industrial decarbonization: the local Air Emissions Tracking Atlas

Many decarbonization technologies have the added co-benefit of reducing short-lived climate pollutants, such as particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), creating a unique opportunity for identifying strategies that promote both climate change solutions and opportunities for air quality improvement. However, stakeholders and decision-makers may struggle to quantify how these co-benefits will impact public health for the communities most affected by industrial air pollution. To address this problem, the LOCal Air Emissions Tracking Atlas (LOCAETA) fills a data availability and analysis gap by providing estimated air quality benefits from industrial decarbonization options, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). These co-benefits are calculated using an algorithm that connects disparate datasets that separately report greenhouse gas emissions and other pollutants at U.S. industrial facilities. Version 1.0 of LOCAETA displays the estimated primary PM 2.5 emission reduction co-benefits from additional pretreatment equipment for CCS on industrial and power facilities across the state of Louisiana, as well as the potential for VOC and NH 3 generation. The emission reductions are presented in the tool alongside facility pollutant emissions information and relevant air quality, environmental, demographic, and public health datasets, such as air toxics cancer risk, satellite and in situ pollutant measurements, and population vulnerability metrics. LOCAETA enables regulators, policymakers, environmental justice communities, and industrial and commercial users to compare and contrast quantifiable public health benefits due to air quality impacts from various climate change mitigation strategies using a free and publicly-available tool. Additional pollutant reductions can be calculated using the same methodology and will be available in future versions of the tool.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Influence of the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara on South American Climate

Paleoclimatic data from pollen, speleothem and sedimentary records indicate a weakening of the South American Monsoon in the mid-Holocene (MH: 6,000 years BP), which occurred coevally with the intensification of the West African Monsoon. The reduction in precipitation over South America is also simulated by various models which account for changes in orbital forcings and greenhouse gas concentrations between the present day and the mid-Holocene. However, most model studies do not account for vegetation changes, which precludes realistic simulations, especially due to the presence and far-afield impacts of the Green Sahara. In this study, we evaluate precipitation over South America during the mid-Holocene from four models, namely – EC-Earth 3.1, iCESM 1.2, CCSM4-Toronto and GISS Model E2.1-G. Two scenarios are considered for each model – an MHPMIP scenario simulated with the mid-Holocene orbital parameters and greenhouse gas concentrations with vegetation prescribed to pre-industrial conditions, as well as an MHGS (Green Sahara) scenario which additionally considers factors such as enhanced vegetation, reduced dust, presence of lakes, and land and soil feedbacks. Incorporating the Green Sahara leads to an amplification of the drying signal over South America and brings it more in line with the proxy reconstructions. We also present a semi-quantitative assessment of the proxy-model agreement. Our work indicates that it is important to consider changes over northern Africa while studying South American climate of the mid-Holocene.

GISS-E2-1 model↗

The effects of acid deposition on sulfate reduction and methane production in peatlands

Peatlands, as fens and bods, make up a large percentage of northern latitude terrestrial environments. They are organic rich and support an active community of anaerobic bacteria, such as methanogenic and sulfate-reducing bacteria. The end products of these microbial activities, methane and hydrogen sulfide, are important components in the global biogeochemical cycles of carbon and sulfur. Since these two bacterial groups compete for nutritional substrates, increases in sulfate deposition due to acid rain potentially can disrupt the balance between these processes leading to a decrease in methane production and emission. This is significant because methane is a potent greenhouse gas that effects the global heat balance. A section of Mire 239 in the Experimental Lakes Area, in Northwestern Ontario, was artificially acidified and rates of sulfate reduction and methane production were measured with depth. Preliminary results suggested that methane production was not affected immediately after acidification. However, concentrations of dissolved methane decreased and dissolved sulfide increased greatly after acidification and both took several days to recover. The exact mechanism for the decrease in methane was not determined. Analyses are under way which will be used to determine rates of sulfate reduction. These results will be available by Spring and will be discussed.

Murray, Georgia L.↗

Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000 years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Role of non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions in limiting global warming

Unfortunately, current climate pledges are insufficient to achieve the aspirational goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Here, we discuss the critical role that non-CO 2 greenhouse gas emissions might play in global climate change stabilization and challenges and opportunities to pivot research and policy focus toward accelerated reductions of non-CO 2 gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technology Case Study: Economic, Sustainability, and Deployment Considerations for Sustainable Aviation Fuels Produced via Lignocellulosic Sugar Catalysis

This report presents a technology case study reflecting one exemplary representative pathway for the conversion of lignocellulosic sugars to sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) via aqueous phase reforming (APR) catalysis, considered within a broader integrated biorefinery framework based on biochemical processing operations. While far from the only option for converting sugars to SAF, this pathway was selected as a case study here based on its relatively high technology maturity and simplistic processing approach (avoiding complex separations or other equipment scalability challenges), coupled with the potential for high fuel yields and favorable costs/carbon intensities with opportunities for further near-term optimization. The report considers key process integration and engineering design considerations for a modeled hypothetical, nth-plant commercial biorefinery, reflecting a number of processing options and parameters envisioned to be achievable as future goals. Resultant outputs from Aspen Plus process simulations are evaluated through techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA and LCA), including implications for marginal cost of CO2 abatement and inclusion of currently-applicable policy incentives. Moving beyond base case configurations, a number of alternative scenarios are also evaluated for their ability to further improve economics, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and marginal cost of abatement, highlighting a path to achieve deep decarbonization goals of more than 70% GHG reduction for SAF (with the potential to reach net-negative carbon intensities in some cases) under reasonable fuel production costs. The report also highlights future opportunities and gaps for further research on this technology pathway.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Recyclable Thermoset Polymers From Lignin Derived Phenols

Spero Renewables has successfully developed bio-based thermoset polymers that can be decomposed and recycled under mild conditions while maintaining physical properties comparable to traditional BPA-based thermosets. Key accomplishments include the optimization of thermoset synthesis with over 50% bio-based content, the establishment of recycling conditions for both thermosets and carbon fiber-reinforced composites, and the demonstration of CFRC recyclability. The project also included a techno-economic analysis (TEA), which revealed significant cost reductions through carbon fiber recycling, and a lifecycle analysis (LCA), which showed that Spero's bio-based CFRCs could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 74% compared to conventional fossil-based CFRCs. This work positions Spero Renewables at the forefront of sustainable thermoset and composite material technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Life Cycle Decarbonization of Modular Building Solutions: Preprint

Off-site construction methods offer the opportunity to compress costs of net zero energy housing using the advantages of mass production. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder, wanted to know how the learning curves of mass production would help them decarbonize their existing modular housing prototype at a relative cost advantage. The method developed for this question looked at the life cycle assessment of an individual apartment and used learning curve efficiencies to approximate the relative advantage of construction-at-scale. Greenhouse gas emissions were quantified by a learning-affected, whole life carbon emissions model and demonstrated a path to a 60% reduction of whole life CO2-equivalent in the 2030 production year. The resultant roadmap considers a best-first approach to decarbonizing a modular building product line, and the method can be replicated for other modular builders.

decarbonization↗

PCOR Partnership: A Catalyst for Commercial CCUS Deployment

Conference paper presented at 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies (GHGT-17), Calgary, Alberta, Canada, October 20–24, 2024. This paper presents an overview of the Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership Initiative and the current commercial carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) activity in the region, discusses challenges facing CCUS in the region, and highlights important challenges that have recently been overcome to enable CCUS deployment in the region.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Decarbonization During Predevelopment of Modular Building Solutions

Off-site construction methods offer the opportunity to compress costs of net-zero energy (NZE) housing using the advantages of mass production. There has been limited investigation on trade-offs between site-built and industrialized construction from the perspective of reducing the incremental cost of NZE strategies and reducing greenhouse gas emissions during embodied and operational stages. Blokable, LLC, a vertically integrated modular builder, wanted to know how the learning curves of mass production would help them decarbonize their existing modular housing prototype at a relative cost advantage. The method developed for this question looked at the life cycle assessment of an individual apartment and used learning-curve efficiencies to approximate the relative advantage of construction-at-scale. Greenhouse gas emissions were quantified by a learning-affected, whole-life carbon emissions model and demonstrated a path to a 60% reduction of whole-life CO2-equivalent in the 2030 production year. The resultant roadmap considers a best-first approach to decarbonizing a modular building product line, and the method can be replicated for other modular builders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH4) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH4 emissions and CH4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top-down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model-based) and bottom-up (BU) (inventory- and process model-based) CH4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH4 yr−1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

Global Carbon Project (GCP)↗

Editorial: Microbial C1 Metabolism and Biotechnology

Archaea and bacteria with the capacity to utilize one-carbon (C1) molecules as carbon and energy sources are widespread across the planet and are important players in many biogeochemical processes. As such, they occupy an array of diverse anaerobic and aerobic niches and perform unique metabolisms that enable the utilization of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), formate (HCOOH), methanol (CH 3 OH), and methane (CH 4 ) for growth. Several industrial processes have been developed that leverage these microbes for the targeted conversion of anthropogenic waste gases that contain C1 molecules, including natural gas (CH 4 ), anaerobic digestion-derived biogas (CH 4 and CO 2 ), industrial flue gas (CO 2 and CO), and syngas (CO 2 , CO, and H 2 ) (Figure 1). Further, there is increasing interest in electrochemical reduction of CO 2 to CO, CH 4 , and intermediates with increased solubility compared to gaseous C1 molecules (formate and methanol) using electrons derived from renewable sources like wind, solar, or hydrothermal systems to mitigate atmospheric greenhouse gas. Thus, C1-utilizing microbes will likely play an integral role in biotechnologies that are part of a sustainable, circular bioeconomy. However, fundamental knowledge gaps into the metabolism and physiology of these microbes exist that limit their utility as biocatalysts for carbon-efficient biomanufacturing. This special topic presents studies focused on the fundamental aspects of C1 metabolism in diverse microbial systems with the ability to convert anthropogenic greenhouse gases into valuable products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Technoeconomic and Emissions Analysis of the Hybrid Redox Process for the Production of Acetic Acid with CO 2 Utilization

The production of oxygenated hydrocarbons, such as acetic acid, using captured CO 2 is a promising pathway to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the chemical industry. The use of a chemical looping‐based hybrid redox process (HRP) is proposed to convert CO 2 and natural gas into separate CO and syngas streams that can be used to produce various commodity oxygenates, while allowing the beneficial utilization of captured CO 2 . Here, a detailed technoeconomic analysis of HRP applied to the production of acetic acid is presented. Emissions and energy analyses show the ability of HRP to lower the CO 2 emissions for acetic acid synthesis by 74% compared to a conventional steam and autothermal reforming route. HRP also offers a potential 34% reduction in capital costs. Compared to a dry reforming based acetic acid production route, HRP has the potential for significantly lower costs. If integrated with a low carbon energy source, HRP has the potential to achieve a negative emission of greenhouse gas (‐0.50 kg CO 2 per kg acetic acid).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗