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At least 289 records · Page 16

Discordant Clinical and Microbiological Outcomes Are Associated With Late Clinical Relapse in Clinical Trials for Complicated Urinary Tract Infections

Abstract Background Current US Food and Drug Administration guidance recommends that the primary endpoint for complicated urinary tract infection clinical trials be a composite of the clinical and microbiological responses, assessed at a fixed point after therapy. Although some participants meet the criteria for clinical success, they do not meet the criteria for microbiological eradication and are classified as treatment failures. These discordant outcomes have raised questions about the utility of the microbiological endpoint. Methods We analyzed participant data from 13 phase 3 clinical trials submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration (N = 4842). Outcomes were determined at the test of cure (TOC) visit, recommended to occur at least 5 days after therapy and at the late follow-up visit, recommended to occur 21 to 28 days after randomization. Clinical and microbiological success were defined as the resolution of complicated urinary tract infection symptoms present at study entry, with no new symptoms (clinical cure), and a reduction in density of the original pathogen to <103 CFU/mL on urine culture (microbiological eradication). Results Among included participants, 70.7% were concordant successes at the TOC visit, 18.0% were discordant failures (clinical cure/microbiological persistence), and 6.7% were concordant failures (clinical failure/microbiological persistence). Discordant participants were at an increased risk for clinical failure at the late follow-up visit, and the risk of late clinical failure increased with time. Conclusions Discordant clinical and microbiological outcomes at the TOC visit were associated with an increased risk of late clinical failure. Microbiological outcomes appear to be an important component of the endpoint.

Immunology↗

Symptoms and Systemic Drug Reactions in Persons Receiving Weekly Rifapentine Plus Isoniazid (3HP) Treatment for Latent Tuberculosis Infection

Abstract Background Three months of weekly rifapentine plus isoniazid (3HP) therapy for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is recommended worldwide. The development of symptoms and systemic drug reactions (SDRs) on 3HP have not been fully characterized. We aimed to determine the patterns of symptom development and identify SDRs and associated factors in patients taking 3HP. Methods We analyzed symptoms data in participants receiving 3HP in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium's iAdhere study (Study 33). We examined the patterns of symptom reporting across participants from baseline and 4 monthly visits. Bivariate analyses and multivariable regression models were used to identify factors associated with SDRs. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results Among 1002 participants receiving 3HP, 768 (77%) reported at least 1 symptom; 97% of these symptoms were grade 1 (79%) or grade 2 (18%). Most symptoms developed in the first month and resolved. A total of 111 (11%) participants had symptoms that met criteria for SDRs; however, 53 (48%) of these participants completed therapy. Factors associated with SDRs and discontinuation included female sex (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.19–3.54), age ≥45 years (RR: 1.99; 95% CI: 1.19–3.31), and use of concomitant medications (RR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.15–4.42). Conclusions Although most patients receiving 3HP reported symptoms, most were mild, occurred early, and resolved without stopping treatment. Among patients experiencing SDRs, nearly half were able to complete therapy. Patient and provider education should focus on differentiating severe reactions where 3HP should be stopped from minor symptoms that will resolve. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT01582711.

Immunology↗

Use of nucleic acid amplification testing for rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex among U.S. tuberculosis patients from 2011–2017

Background: Nucleic acid amplification (NAA) tests rapidly detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex directly from clinical specimens, providing valuable results for those evaluated for tuberculosis. Methods: We analyzed characteristics of cases with NAA testing performed, compared cases with positive and negative NAA test results, and calculated turnaround time and time to treatment for all verified cases reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System in the United States during 2011–2017. Results: Among 67082 verified tuberculosis cases with NAA testing information, 30820 (45.9%) were reported as not having an NAA test performed; the proportion without NAA testing declined annually, from 60.5% in 2011 to 33.6% in 2017. Of 67082 verified cases, 27912 (41.6%) had positive, 8215 (12.2%) had negative, and 135 (0.2%) had indeterminate NAA test results. Among the 33937 cases with an acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear-positive result, 24093 (70.9%) had an NAA test performed; 11490 of the 30244 (38.0%) with an AFB smear-negative result had an NAA test performed. Although sputum was the most common specimen type tested, 79.8% (7023/8804) of nonsputum specimen types had a positive NAA test result. Overall, 63.7% of cases with laboratory testing had NAA test results reported <6 days following specimen collection; for 13891 cases not yet on treatment, median time to treatment after the laboratory report date was 2 days. Conclusions: Our analyses demonstrate increased NAA test utilization between 2011 and 2017. However, a large proportion of cases did not have an NAA test performed, reflecting challenges in broader uptake, suggesting an opportunity to expand use of this diagnostic methodology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measured influence of overhead HVAC on exposure to airborne contaminants from simulated speaking in a meeting and a classroom

Tracer gas experiments were conducted in a 158 m 3 room with overhead supply diffusers to study dispersion of contaminants from simulated speaking in physically distanced meeting and classroom configurations. The room was contained within a 237 m 3 cell with open plenum return to the HVAC system. Heated manikins at desks and a researcher operating the tracer release apparatus presented 8-9 thermal plumes. Experiments were conducted under conditions of no forced air and neutral, cooled, or heated air supplied at 980-1100 cmh, and with/out 20% outdoor air. CO 2 was released at the head of one manikin in each experiment to simulate small (< 5 µm diameter) respiratory aerosols. The metric of exposure relative to perfectly mixed (ERM) is introduced to quantify impacts, based on measurements at manikin heads and at three heights in the center and corners of the room. Chilled or neutral supply air provided good mixing with ERMs close to one. Thermal stratification during heating produced higher ERMs at most manikins: 25% were ≥ 2.5 and the highest were > 5× perfectly mixed conditions. Operation of two within-zone air cleaners together moving ≥400 cmh vertically in the room provided enough mixing to mitigate elevated exposure variations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Proteomic characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis subjected to carbon starvation

ABSTRACT Mycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb) is the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), the leading cause of infectious disease-related deaths worldwide. TB infections present on a spectrum from active to latent disease. In the human host,Mtbfaces hostile environments, such as nutrient deprivation, hypoxia, and low pH. Under these conditions,Mtbcan enter a dormant, but viable, state characterized by a lack of cell replication and increased resistance to antibiotics. DormantMtbposes a major challenge to curing infections and eradicating TB globally. We subjectedMtbmc 2 6020 (ΔlysAand ΔpanCD), a double auxotrophic strain, to carbon starvation (CS), a culture condition that induces growth stasis and mimics environmental conditions associated with dormancyin vivo. We provide a detailed analysis of the proteome in CS compared to replicating samples. We observed extensive proteomic reprogramming, with 36% of identified proteins significantly altered in CS. Many enzymes involved in oxidative phosphorylation and lipid metabolism were retained or more abundant in CS. The cell wall biosynthetic machinery was present in CS, although numerous changes in the abundance of peptidoglycan, arabinogalactan, and mycolic acid biosynthetic enzymes likely result in pronounced remodeling of the cell wall. Many clinically approved anti-TB drugs target cell wall biosynthesis, and we found that these enzymes were largely retained in CS. Lastly, we compared our results to those of other dormancy models and propose that CS produces a physiologically distinct state of stasis compared to hypoxia inMtb. IMPORTANCE Tuberculosis is a devastating human disease that kills over 1.2 million people a year. This disease is caused by the bacterial pathogenMycobacterium tuberculosis(Mtb).Mtbexcels at surviving in the human host by entering a non-replicating, dormant state. The current work investigated the proteomic changes thatMtbundergoes in response to carbon starvation, a culture condition that models dormancy. The authors found broad effects of carbon starvation on the proteome, with the relative abundance of 37% of proteins significantly altered. Protein changes related to cell wall biosynthesis, metabolism, and drug susceptibility are discussed. Proteins associated with a carbon starvation phenotype are identified, and results are compared to other dormancy models, including hypoxia.

Microbiology↗

High-quality Acinetobacter genomes recovered from combat wounds via metagenomic sequencing resemble cultured isolate genomes

The ability to accurately characterize wound pathogens is critical to informing clinical decisions for wound infections with complex treatment requirements. Acinetobacter baumannii is an impactful nosocomial pathogen in combat wounds and civilian hospital-acquired infections. An informed understanding of the phylogenetics and epidemiology of A. baumannii infections in military and civilian environments could guide approaches that improve antibiotic treatment regimens for both military and civilian patients. Whole-genome data for bacterial strains can be difficult to obtain due to challenges in culturing isolates from preserved military specimens. Metagenomic sequencing and assembly create opportunities for genomic analysis of pathogens directly from clinical specimens. The ability to perform comparative analyses between metagenome-derived genomes and culture-derived genomes would support a range of comparative bacterial genomic studies. Wound tissue biopsy and effluent samples from combat injuries were subjected to metagenomic sequencing and assembly. In total, 42 microbial metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) were obtained directly from metagenomic sequence data, 36 of which were designated “high” quality. Thirty of these genomes corresponded to Acinetobacter, with 29 mapping specifically to A. baumannii. Other observed genera included Bordetella, Citrobacter, Escherichia, and Pseudomonas. Single-copy and multi-copy orthologs were identified across Acinetobacter MAGs and publicly available isolate genomes derived from military and civilian sources. Both MAG and military isolate genomes were annotated with antimicrobial resistance data, and MAG genomes were statistically comparable to genomes obtained from isolates. Our results highlight the potential of de novo metagenome assembly for enabling high-resolution characterization directly from clinical specimens, thereby improving diagnostic precision, guiding antimicrobial stewardship, and enhancing understanding of pathogen evolution across diverse healthcare and battlefield environments.

Acinetobacter baumannii↗

Exploring phage–host interactions in Burkholderia cepacia complex bacterium to reveal host factors and phage resistance genes using CRISPRi functional genomics and transcriptomics

Complex interactions of bacteriophages with their bacterial hosts determine phage host range and infectivity. While phage defense systems and host factors have been identified in model bacteria, they remain challenging to predict in non-model bacteria. In this paper, we integrate functional genomics and transcriptomics to investigate phage–host interactions, revealing active phage resistance and host factor genes in Burkholderia cenocepacia K56-2. Burkholderia cepacia complex species are commonly found in soil and are opportunistic pathogens in immunocompromised patients. We studied infection of B. cenocepacia K56-2 with Bcep176, a temperate phage isolated from Burkholderia multivorans. A genome-wide dCas9 knockdown library targeting B. cenocepacia K56-2 was constructed, and a pooled infection experiment identified 63 novel genes or operons coding for candidate host factors or phage resistance genes. The activities of a subset of candidate host factor and resistance genes were validated via single-gene knockdowns. Transcriptomics of B. cenocepacia K56-2 during Bcep176 infection revealed that expression of genes coding for host factor and resistance candidates identified in this screen was significantly altered during infection by 4 h post-infection. Identifying which bacterial genes are involved in phage infection is important to understand the ecological niches of B. cenocepacia and its phages, and for designing phage therapies.

Bacterial Pathogenesis↗

A Structural Perspective on the Alphavirus Life Cycle

Alphaviruses are mosquito-borne, enveloped viruses with a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA genome. Alphaviruses enter host cells via receptor-mediated endocytosis, using various cellular surface receptors such as matrix remodeling-associated protein 8 (MXRA8), low-density lipoprotein receptor class A domain-containing 3 (LDLRAD3), and very low-density lipoprotein receptor (VLDLR), which facilitate binding to the viral glycoproteins. Following entry, viral proteins are expressed and nonstructural proteins assemble into replication complexes in host cells, driving RNA synthesis and genome replication. Viral assembly occurs at the plasma membrane, where nascent virions bud from the host cell in a process driven by capsid and spike proteins. Recent combinatorial structural studies have provided detailed molecular insights into various steps of the alphavirus life cycle. These structural insights into the alphavirus life cycle enhance our understanding of viral replication and assembly, with significant implications for antiviral strategies and the development of alphavirus-based vaccine vectors.

RNA virus↗

Single hepatocytes show persistence and transcriptional inactivity of hepatitis B

There is no cure for the more than 270 million people chronically infected with HBV. Nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs), the mainstay of anti-HBV treatment, block HBV reverse transcription. NUCs do not eliminate the intranuclear covalently closed circular DNA (cccDNA), from which viral RNAs, including pregenomic RNA (pgRNA), are transcribed. A key gap in designing a cure is understanding how NUCs affect HBV replication and transcription because serum markers yield an incomplete view of intrahepatic HBV. We applied single-cell laser capture microdissection and droplet digital PCR to paired liver biopsies collected from 5 HBV/HIV-coinfected persons who took NUCs over 2–4 years. From biopsy 1 to 2, proportions of HBV-infected hepatocytes declined with adherence to NUC treatment (P < 0.05); we extrapolated that eradication of HBV will take over 10 decades with NUCs in these participants. In individual hepatocytes, pgRNA levels diminished 28- to 73-fold during NUC treatment, corresponding with decreased tissue HBV core antigen staining (P < 0.01). In 4 out of 5 participants, hepatocytes with cccDNA but undetectable pgRNA (transcriptionally inactive) were present, and these were enriched in 3 participants during NUC treatment. Further work to unravel mechanisms of cccDNA transcriptional inactivation may lead to therapies that can achieve this in all hepatocytes, resulting in a functional cure.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000–15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were 400,000 USD per case, and the annual average total cost was 3.9 billion USD per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost 620,000 USD per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change–attributable damages in the United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reproductive intentions among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis pilot study, 2014–2016

Introduction We assessed reproductive intentions and associated characteristics among men enrolled in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) Pilot (SHIPP) Study. Methods We analyzed baseline data from 1275 men who self-identified as gay or bisexual and participated in the SHIPP study. SHIPP was a cohort study of PrEP implementation in five community health centers in Chicago, Jackson, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. conducted from 2014 to 2016. Participants completed audio computer-assisted self-interviews querying intentions to have a child in the future. We estimated the association between participants’ reproductive intentions and their characteristics using Poisson regression models. Results Approximately 47% of participants indicated their intentions to have a child. Black/non-Hispanic (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.10–1.78) and other/non-Hispanic participants (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.01–1.93) were more likely to report intentions to have a child than white/non-Hispanic participants. Participants were less likely to report intentions to have children as age increased (18–29 years, reference group; 30–39 years, aPR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64–0.99; 40–49 years, aPR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.33–0.72; 50+ years, aPR = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.02–0.21). Conclusions Clinicians offering PrEP to black and other/non-Hispanic gay and bisexual men should assess their reproductive intentions as family-planning counseling may be an opportunity to introduce PrEP to HIV-negative gay and bisexual men.

Immunology↗

Purification of native histidine-rich protein 2 (nHRP2) from Plasmodium falciparum culture supernatant, infected RBCs, and parasite lysate

Background: Despite the widespread use of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), purified native HRP2 antigen is not standardly used in research applications or assessment of RDTs used in the field. Methods: This report describes the purification of native HRP2 (nHRP2) from the HB3 Plasmodium falciparum culture strain. As this culture strain lacks pfhrp3 from its genome, it is an excellent source of HRP2 protein only and does not produce the closely-related HRP3. The nHRP2 protein was isolated from culture supernatant, infected red blood cells (iRBCs), and whole parasite lysate using nickel-metal chelate chromatography. Biochemical characterization of nHRP2 from HB3 culture was conducted by SDS-PAGE and western blotting, and nHRP2 was assayed by RDT, ELISA, and bead-based immunoassay. Results: Purified nHRP2 was identified by SDS-PAGE and western blot as a –60 kDa protein that bound anti-HRP-2 monoclonal antibodies. Mouse anti-HRP2 monoclonal antibody was found to produce high optical density readings between dilutions of 1:100 and 1:3,200 by ELISA with assay signal observed up to a 1:200,000 dilution. nHRP2 yield from HB3 culture by bead-based immunoassay revealed that both culture supernatant and iRBC lysate were practical sources of large quantities of this antigen, producing a total yield of 292.4 µg of nHRP2 from two pooled culture preparations. Assessment of nHRP2 recognition by RDTs revealed that Carestart Pf HRP2 and HRP2/pLDH RDTs detected purified nHRP2 when applied at concentrations between 20.6 and 2060 ng/mL, performing within a log-fold dilution of commercially-available recombinant HRP2. The band intensity observed for the nHRP2 dilutions was equivalent to that observed for P. falciparum culture strain dilutions of 3D7 and US06 F Nigeria XII between 12.5 and 1000 parasites/µL. Conclusions: Purified nHRP2 could be a valuable reagent for laboratory applications as well as assessment of new and existing RDTs prior to their use in clinical settings. These results establish that it is possible to extract microgram quantities of the native HRP2 antigen from HB3 culture and that this purified protein is well recognized by existing monoclonal antibody lines and RDTs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions and performance of a rapid diagnostic test for identifying asymptomatic malaria infection in northern Ethiopia, 2015

Background: Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are widely used for malaria diagnosis of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. Although RDTs are a reliable and practical diagnostic tool, the sensitivity of histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based RDTs can be reduced if pfhrp2 or pfhrp3 (pfhrp2/3) gene deletions exist in the Plasmodium falciparum parasite population. This study evaluated dried blood spot (DBS) samples collected from a national household survey to investigate the presence of pfhrp2/3 deletions and the performance of the RDT used in the cross-sectional survey in a low transmission setting. Methods: The 2015 Ethiopia Malaria Indicator Survey tested household members by RDT and collected DBS samples. DBS (n = 2648) from three regions in northern Ethiopia were tested by multiplex bead-based antigen detection assay after completion of the survey. The multiplex assay detected pan-Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), pAldolase, and HRP2 antigens in samples. Samples suspected for pfhrp2/3 gene deletions (pLDH and/or pAldolase positive but low or absent HRP2) were further investigated by molecular assays for gene deletions. Antigen results were also compared to each individual’s RDT results. Dose–response logistic regression models were fit to estimate RDT level of detection (LOD) antigen concentrations at which 50, 75, 90, and 95% of the RDTs returned a positive result during this survey. Results: Out of 2,648 samples assayed, 29 were positive for pLDH or pAldolase antigens but low or absent for HRP2 signal, and 15 of these samples (51.7%) were successfully genotyped for pfhrp2/3. Of these 15 P. falciparum infections, eight showed single deletions in pfhrp3, one showed a single pfhrp2 deletion, and six were pfhrp2/3 double-deletions. Six pfhrp2 deletions were observed in Tigray and one in Amhara. Twenty-five were positive for HRP2 by the survey RDT while the more sensitive bead assay detected 30 HRP2-positive samples. A lower concentration of HRP2 antigen generated a positive test result by RDT compared to pLDH (95% LOD: 16.9 ng/mL vs. 319.2 ng/mL, respectively). Conclusions: There is evidence of dual pfhrp2/3 gene deletions in the Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia in 2015. As the prevalence of malaria was very low (< 2%), it is difficult to make strong conclusions on RDT performance, but these results challenge the utility of biomarkers in household surveys in very low transmission settings.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

In vitro activity and in vivo efficacy of omadacycline against Plasmodium species

Abstract Background Doxycycline is currently the only tetracycline-class antibiotic recommended for malaria prophylaxis. Omadacycline, a semisynthetic aminomethylcycline approved for treatment of adults with community-acquired bacterial pneumonia and acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections, has a well-established safety profile. This study evaluated the in vitro activity of omadacycline againstPlasmodium falciparumandPlasmodium cynomolgiand its in vivo efficacy againstPlasmodium bergheiin experimental malaria models to assess its potential as an antimalarial drug. Methods Fluorescence-based assays were used to assess the in vitro blood and liver stage activity of omadacycline and doxycycline againstP. falciparumandP. cynomolgilaboratory clones. In vivo liver and early-stage blood stage efficacy were evaluated in a murine model ofP. bergheiinfection, utilizing in vivo imaging of luciferase-expressingP. berghei(ANKA strain) sporozoites in female albino C57Bl/6 mice. Parasitaemia was monitored by flow cytometry for up to 30 days post-infection. Results Omadacycline demonstrated comparable in vitro activity to doxycycline against both drug-sensitive and drug-resistantP. falciparumclones, while doxycycline showed reduced activity against two drug-resistant clones. Notably, omadacycline exhibited superior anti-schizont activity in theP. cynomolgiliver stage assay. In theP. bergheimurine model, omadacycline was efficacious in both liver and early blood stages compared to the untreated control group, and demonstrated improved survival compared to doxycycline. Conclusions Omadacycline demonstrated enhanced antimalarial efficacy over doxycycline in vitro in liver stage activity and in overcoming resistance in the blood stage, and in survival in an in vivo model ofP. bergheiinfection. These findings support further investigation of omadacycline as a potential candidate for malaria prophylaxis and treatment.

Infectious Diseases↗

CpG ODN D35 improves the response to abbreviated low-dose pentavalent antimonial treatment in non-human primate model of cutaneous leishmaniasis

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) affects the lives of 0.7–1 million people every year causing lesions that take months to heal. These lesions can result in disfiguring scars with psychological, social and economic consequences. Antimonials are the first line of therapy for CL, however the treatment is lengthy and linked to significant toxicities; further, its efficacy is variable and resistant parasites are emerging. Shorter or lower dose antimonial treatment regimens, which would decrease the risk of adverse events and improve patient compliance, have shown reduced efficacy and further increase the risk emergence of antimonial-resistant strains. The progression of lesions in CL is partly determined by the immune response it elicits, and previous studies showed that administration of immunomodulatory type D CpG ODNs, magnifies the immune response to Leishmania and reduces lesion severity in nonhuman primates (NHP) challenged with Leishmania major or Leishmania amazonensis. Here we explored whether the addition of a single dose of immunomodulating CpG ODN D35 augments the efficacy of a short-course, low-dose pentavalent antimonial treatment regimen. Results show that macaques treated with D35 plus 5mg/kg sodium stibogluconate (SbV ) for 10 days had smaller lesions and reduced time to re-epithelization after infection with Leishmania major. No toxicities were evident during the studies, even at doses of D35 10 times higher than those used in treatment. Critically, pentavalent antimonial treatment did not modify the ability of D35 to induce type I IFNs. The findings support the efficacy of D35 as adjuvant therapy for shorter, low dose pentavalent antimonial treatment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗