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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16

Tetratricopeptide Repeat 2 Is a Quantitative Trait Locus That Controls Seed Size

Seed size is a key trait affecting evolution and agronomic performance by influencing seedling establishment in natural populations and crop yields. The Arabidopsis thaliana Seed Size QTL1 (SSQ1) locus explains 10–15% of the variation in seed size. We report here that the causal gene for this locus is Tetratricopeptide Repeat Protein 2 (TPR2), which encodes a co-chaperone. Expressing TPR2 across ecotypes and genotypes showed consistent dosage effects. Each additional TPR2Col-0 allele increased seed mass and volume by 10–14% with high reliability in Col-0, Sha, Tsu-1, and tsu2 genetic backgrounds. Reciprocal genetic crosses indicated that this locus acts maternally, consistent with female sporophytic or female gametophytic mutations. To elucidate how TPR2 regulates seed size, the biomass composition of seeds was measured. While oil content remained unchanged, sucrose levels were markedly elevated in TPR2Col-0 transformant lines and reduced in tpr2 mutants. Interestingly, heterologous expression of TPR2Col-0 across genetic backgrounds increased seed protein accumulation by 18% on average. Based on these changes in sucrose and protein levels, potential modes of action for TPR2 are discussed.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Acidity-Governed Rules in the Electrochemical Performance of Fluorinated Benzenes for High-Voltage Lithium Metal Batteries

Judicious selection of the optimal fluorobenzene (FB) as a nonsolvating cosolvent for lithium metal batteries (LMBs) is reported. For this work, we found the key correlation between FB structures and cycling stabilities of cells: increased fluorine substitution of FBs results in higher anodic stability but at the expense of reduced reductive stability, and FBs containing three or more fluorine atoms exhibit insufficient anodic stability in the electrolyte system comprised of fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC) and ethyl methyl carbonate (EMC). More importantly, FBs with higher acidity (lower pK a ) due to protons located between two adjacent fluorine atoms tend to be more susceptible to side reactions during cycling. Our results indicate that difluorobenzenes with no “acidic” proton (DFB2 and DFB4) have emerged as the optimal choice with the desired redox stability in high-voltage LMBs. Nuclear magnetic resonance and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy confirmed these findings, providing guidance for selecting the most suitable FB variants as nonsolvating cosolvents for high-voltage LMBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Numerical studies of collinear laser-assisted injection from a foil for plasma wakefield accelerators

We present a laser-assisted electron injection scheme for beam-driven plasma wakefield acceleration. The laser is collinear with the driver and triggers the injection of hot electrons into the plasma wake by interaction with a thin solid target. We present a baseline case using the AWAKE Run 2 parameters and then perform variations on key parameters to explore the scheme. It is found that the trapped witness electron charge may be tuned by altering laser parameters, with a strong dependence on the phase of the wake upon injection. Normalized emittance settles at the order of micrometres and varies with witness charge. The scheme is robust to misalignment, with a 1/10th plasma skin-depth offset ( 20 μ m for the AWAKE case) having a negligible effect on the final beam. The final beam quality is better than similar existing schemes, and several avenues for further optimization are indicated. The constraints on the AWAKE experiment are very specific, but the general principles of this mechanism can be applied to future beam-driven plasma wakefield accelerator experiments. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗

Agentic AI vs ML-Based Autotuning: A Comparative Study for Loop Reordering Optimization

High Performance Computing (HPC) applications rely heavily on code optimizations to achieve good performance on modern CPU and GPU architectures. Traditional Machine Learning auto-tuning approaches have demonstrated success in exploring high-dimensional spaces, but they often require expensive compile-run evaluations and lack adaptability for large HPC applications. The recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) and Agentic AI systems raise intriguing questions about the potential of these approaches to address specific optimization methodologies. This work aims to answer an essential question for the HPC community: “How Agentic AI Systems Compare to Traditional ML Autotuning Techniques?” To address this question, we present a comparative analysis between a traditional ML-based optimization approach and an Agentic AI system, evaluating their respective capabilities and limitations for loop-level optimization. In addition, we introduced a new Agentic AI system named LoopGen-AI using three different Large Language Models: GPT-4.1, Claude 4.0, and Gemini 2.5. A key finding is that LoopGen-AI achieves competitive per-formance with only a few program runs, the reasoning logs from the agents revealed that their decisions rely heavily on the combination of semantic understanding of the target kernel with dynamic feedback from the environment, highlighting a promising new dimension in performance tuning. In contrast, ML-based autotuners focus on statistical exploration, and require orders of magnitude more runs to reach peak performance. Additionally, our analysis shows that prompt engineering, particularly using Persona + Context Manager patterns, significantly impacts the effectiveness of Agentic AI. Our results indicate that while Agentic AI systems are not yet a complete replacement for ML-based autotuners, it can effectively complement traditional methods.

Rosas, Miguel Romero↗

Measurements of low-mode asymmetries in the areal density of laser-direct-drive deuterium–tritium cryogenic implosions on OMEGA using neutron spectroscopy

Areal density is one of the key parameters that determines the confinement time in inertial confinement fusion experiments, and low-mode asymmetries in the compressed fuel are detrimental to the implosion performance. The energy spectra from the scattering of the primary deuterium–tritium (DT) neutrons off the compressed cold fuel assembly are used to investigate low-mode nonuniformities in direct-drive cryogenic DT implosions at the Omega Laser Facility. For spherically symmetric implosions, the shape of the energy spectrum is primarily determined by the elastic and inelastic scattering cross sections for both neutron-deuterium and neutron-tritium kinematic interactions. Two highly collimated lines of sight, which are positioned at nearly orthogonal locations around the OMEGA target chamber, record the neutron time-of-flight signal in the current mode. An evolutionary algorithm is being used to extract a model-independent energy spectrum of the scattered neutrons from the experimental neutron time-of-flight data and is used to infer the modal spatial variations (l = 1) in the areal density. Experimental observations of the low-mode variations of the cold-fuel assembly (ρL 0 + ρL 1 ) show good agreement with a recently developed model, indicating a departure from the spherical symmetry of the compressed DT fuel assembly. As a result, another key signature that has been observed in the presence of a low-mode variation is the broadening of the kinematic end-point due to the anisotropy of the dense fuel conditions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Toward a high-voltage fast-charging pouch cell with TiO 2 cathode coating and enhanced battery safety

Nickel-rich layered lithium transition metal oxides, LiNi x Co y Mn 1-x-y O 2 , are key cathode materials for high-energy lithium-ion batteries owing to their high specific capacity. However, the commercial deployment of nickel-rich oxides has been hampered by their poor thermostability and insufficient cycle life. In this work full batteries with uncoated and TiO 2 -coated LiNi 0.5 Co 0.2 Mn 0.3 O 2 cathodes and graphite anodes are compared in terms of electrochemical performance and safety behavior. The battery using a TiO 2 -coated LiNi 0.5 Co 0.2 Mn 0.3 O 2 cathode exhibited better cyclic performance at high cutoff voltage. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy analysis indicated that the TiO 2 -coated LiNi 0.5 Co 0.2 Mn 0.3 O 2 cathode gave the battery a more stable charge transfer resistance. Transmission electron microscopy demonstrated that TiO 2 coating reduced accumulation of the cathode electrolyte interface layer on the particle surface. Time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry demonstrated that TiO 2 coating markedly enhanced the interface stability of the cathode particle and protected the particle from serious etching by the electrolyte. Accelerating rate calorimetry revealed that the trigger temperature of thermal runaway for the battery using TiO 2 -coated LiNi 0.5 Co 0.2 Mn 0.3 O 2 as cathode material was 257 °C, which was higher than that of the battery with the uncoated LiNi 0.5 Co 0.2 Mn 0.3 O 2 cathode (251 °C). In situ X-ray diffraction during heating demonstrated that this enhanced safety can be attributed to the suppressed phase evolution of the coated cathode material.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Gamma radiation sterilization of N95 respirators leads to decreased respirator performance

In response to personal protective equipment (PPE) shortages in the United States due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019, two models of N95 respirators were evaluated for reuse after gamma radiation sterilization. Gamma sterilization is attractive for PPE reuse because it can sterilize large quantities of material through hermetically sealed packaging, providing safety and logistic benefits. The Gamma Irradiation Facility at Sandia National Laboratories was used to irradiate N95 filtering facepiece respirators to a sterilization dose of 25 kGy(tissue). Aerosol particle filtration performance testing and electrostatic field measurements were used to determine the efficacy of the respirators after irradiation. Both respirator models exhibited statistically significant decreases in particle filtering efficiencies and electrostatic potential after irradiation. The largest decrease in capture efficiency was 40–50% and peaked near the 200 nm particle size. The key contribution of this effort is correlating the electrostatic potential change of individual filtration layer of the respirator with the decrease filtration efficiency after irradiation. This observation occurred in both variations of N95 respirator that we tested. Electrostatic potential measurement of the filtration layer is a key indicator for predicting filtration efficiency loss.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Laser powder bed fusion parameter estimation with k-NN

Abstract Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is a technique within additive manufacturing that uses a high power density laser to build parts from fused powdered metal alloy. This technology is well equipped to produce complex parts with otherwise impossible features, such as hidden voids or lattice structures. Alongside capability, reliability and quality are key characteristics considered when choosing a manufacturing method, and these are gaining attention as this method becomes more prevalent in industry. One main indicator of a stable L-PBF process is consistent melt pool geometry, and the properties of which are likely to determine the quality of the part produced. As computing power and sensing technologies become more advanced, this melt pool geometry could be studied in real time. This work addresses the challenge by leveraging a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) model to identify key features within melt pool imagery and predict the energy density. The k-NN model was trained on data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Data preprocessing was performed on the images to extract features that were used in the k-NN model. This approach was used to accurately infer the energy density of unseen layers within the same part. The algorithm was subsequently tested with unique scan strategies and found to reasonably estimate the energy density of different parts. A fivefold cross validation found the algorithm to be consistently predicting the class of 91.4% of the in situ melt pool images.

Jung, Patrick (ORCID:0000000267890859)↗

Sequential Selection for Minimizing the Variance with Application to Crystallization Experiments

For many crystal-based products (e.g., pharmaceuticals, energy storage), the size uniformity is not only a key quality attribute, but sometimes also an indicator of other attributes such as solid purity. This article proposes a sequential selection approach to find a proper experimental setting that leads to high uniformity, or equivalently, small variance for crystal sizes, from the advanced slug flow reaction crystallization process of a model crystal, called manganese oxalate hydrate. The proposed sequential selection approach contains a Bayesian adaptive method to incorporate new uniformity measurements in each step and two design acquisition functions to improve the selection of the most promising experimental setting in terms of minimizing the variance. We study the performance of the proposed approach through multiple synthetic numerical studies, as well as a case study based on data from slug flow crystallization experiments. Throughout these studies, the proposed approach shows competitive performance in identifying the best experimental setting.

Expected improvement↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity.Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the American Innovation and Manufacturing (AIM) Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Environmentally Sound One-Step Solar Silicon From Natural Quartzite

This project aimed to demonstrate a new molten salt electrodeposition process to go straight from low-cost silica at $200/tonne ($40¢/kg Si basis) to polysilicon in a single step using less than 30 kWh/kg. This would eliminate the carbothermic reduction step and all direct greenhouse emissions, along with 90% of the energy. It would also eliminate the chemical hazards of chlorosilane handling which have resulted in multiple fatalities in the polysilicon industry – in Japan, the US and China. This project had the following major accomplishments: Stakeholder engagement indicated that the solar silicon market is very sensitive to price, provided quality is sufficient. The most important measure of silicon quality is not purity but carrier lifetime, as many impurities can reduce performance at concentrations too small to measure; Experiments set a baseline of current efficiency which is too low for commercial application (~3%), with electronic current ruled out as a mechanism for reduced current efficiency; A scale-up plant narrative narrative described a potential plant and formed the basis for the TEA components; TEA showed that current efficiency, large cell size, and zirconia membrane lifetime are key factors which determine capital and operating costs for the process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Novel, Low-Cost, Portable Device for Counterfeit and Noncompliant Refrigerant Detection

The increasing prevalence of counterfeit refrigerants presents significant risks to Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration (HVACR) systems, including compromised equipment performance, safety hazards, and environmental non-compliance. This report details the development of a novel, cost-effective, and portable detection device designed to accurately identify counterfeit refrigerants. The device utilizes a controlled gas sampling and analysis system within a sealed chamber, ensuring precise measurements while maintaining safety through a purging mechanism. The system features a high-sensitivity sensor integrated with an onboard control module that analyzes gas composition in real-time, providing users with clear visual indicators for refrigerant authenticity. Laboratory validation demonstrated the device’s high accuracy (exceeding 95%) in detecting unauthorized refrigerant blends. Key advantages include affordability, ease of use, rapid response time, and compatibility with a wide range of refrigerants. This solution supports compliance with regulatory frameworks such as the AIM Act, enhances safety in HVACR operations, and mitigates the risks associated with counterfeit refrigerants. Future developments will focus on expanding refrigerant detection capabilities, integrating machine learning for enhanced accuracy, implementing cost-reduction strategies to improve accessibility and market adoption, and optimizing system packaging for enhanced field portability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Postirradiation Examination of WIRE-21 Experiment Irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Westinghouse Electric Company is developing wireless sensors to monitor the centerline temperature and internal pressure of commercial light-water reactor fuel rods during irradiation. Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Westinghouse Electric Company developed the Wireless Instrumented RB Experiment 2021 (WIRE-21) to test wireless temperature and pressure sensor technologies in a removable beryllium position in the High Flux Isotope Reactor. The experiment was irradiated for a total of 75 days, at temperatures ranging from approximately 150°C to 400°C, resulting in a peak fast (energy > 0.1 MeV) neutron fluence of about 3 × 10 21 n/cm 2 . The temperature was intentionally cycled multiple times to compare the response of the wireless temperature sensor to collocated thermocouples. Similarly, the pressure sensor was actuated in multiple steps to compare the response of the wireless measurement to excore pressure transducers (Petrie et al., 2023). After irradiation, the experiment was disassembled in the Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory (IFEL) hot cell at Oak Ridge National Laboratory with the intent to recover sensor and dosimetry components, document the as-irradiated condition of the hardware, and investigate possible causes of the sensor behavior observed during irradiation. The postirradiation examination successfully recovered and preserved key WIRE-21 components. After the housing was removed using a milling machine, the internal experiment sections were examined. All eight fiber-optic sensors were recovered, cut, and stored. The silicon carbide thermometry, temperature sensor, pressure sensor, lower spacer, and selected pressure and temperature cable sections were also removed and stored. The metal bellows of the pressure sensor was found to be plastically deformed, indicating that it had been properly pressurized during irradiation and generally behaved as expected. X-ray diffraction analysis of a section of one of the irradiated inductor cores within the pressure sensor was performed and confirmed the presence of phase-pure alpha ferrite (i.e., no unexpected phase transformations). Inductance testing was performed on the irradiated pressure sensor cores using an unirradiated test coil, and DC resistance measurements of the transceiver coils were also performed. The measurements with irradiated inductor cores assembled inside unirradiated coils showed slightly reduced inductance compared to measurements made with unirradiated cores, but the difference was not sufficient to explain the more significant reductions in inductance that were observed in-pile. Therefore, it is suspected that degradation of the inductor coils (specifically the wire wrapping) is responsible for the reduced inductance observed in-pile.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Dissecting Critical Factors for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction on Atomically Precise Au Nanoclusters

Here, this work investigates the critical factors impacting electrochemical CO 2 reduction reaction (CO 2 RR) using atomically precise Au nanoclusters (NCs) as electrocatalysts. First, the influence of size on CO 2 RR is studied by precisely controlling NC size in the 1–2.5 nm regime. We find that the electrocatalytic CO partial current density increases for smaller NCs, but the CO Faradaic efficiency (FE) is not directly associated with the NC size. This indicates that the surface-to-volume ratio, i.e. the population of active sites, is the dominant factor for determining the catalytic activity, but the selectivity is not directly impacted by size. Second, we compare the CO 2 RR performance of Au 38 isomers (Au 38 Q and Au 38 T) to reveal that structural rearrangement of identical size NCs can lead to significant changes in both CO 2 RR activity and selectivity. Au 38 Q shows higher activity and selectivity towards CO than Au 38 T, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that the average formation energy of the key *COOH intermediate on the proposed active sites is significantly lower on Au 38 Q than Au 38 T. These results demonstrate how the structural isomerism can impact stabilization of reaction intermediates as well as the overall CO 2 RR performance of identical size Au NCs. Overall, this work provides important structure–property relationships for tailoring the NCs for CO 2 RR.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Energy Intensity Baselining and Tracking Guidance

Each company joining the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) commits to establishing an energy consumption and energy intensity (EI) baseline and to tracking its energy performance over a 10-year period against that baseline. The baseline must reflect a company’s energy consumption over a 12-month period, covering all its U.S.-based operations. Energy consumption is calculated by fuel type in terms of primary energy (also known as source energy). EI is broadly defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of output produced. For this guidance document and for the program, the term energy performance represents an evaluation of a facility’s capacity to use energy efficiently. Metrics used to assess a facility’s energy performance can include EI, energy consumption, improvements in EI, etc. Establishing an energy baseline and tracking system is a critical first step in effectively managing energy use. Developing a baseline can help a company understand energy use within the corporation and give it a point of comparison to evaluate future efforts to improve energy performance. It can also support efforts to validate a company’s energy management activities, improve comparative analyses when using benchmarks, and help in predicting future energy needs. In addition, a company that normalizes its performance data can determine highly defensible measures of energy savings generated through implemented energy efficiency projects. Establishing a baseline and tracking energy performance is also a requirement for ISO 50001 certification. Although basic energy data can be collected through utility bills, most manufacturers will have to perform additional analyses to develop accurate and robust energy baselines and tracking systems. Energy is consumed in many ways within the manufacturing sector and can come from multiple sources. Energy is sometimes generated and sold to other parties or captured and reused on-site. External events can exert a significant impact on a facility or company’s energy use independent of any purposeful efforts to improve energy efficiency. Operational changes, such as production shifts—which may be inevitable for some companies over the 10-year period covered by the program—can also make a big difference in energy use. Since Better Plants asks companies to account for all their U.S.-based operations, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures can also have significant implications for a company’s energy metrics. This document aims to demystify the sometimes complex baselining process. It devotes special attention to the task of normalizing and adjusting energy consumption to account for external factors, such as weather and production changes. A key recommendation is that companies use regression analysis to normalize their energy consumption data whenever possible. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that estimates the dependence of a variable (i.e., energy use in the context of Better Plants) on one or more independent variables such as ambient temperature, while controlling for the influence of other variables at the same time. A properly developed regression analysis can provide a reliable estimate of energy savings resulting from energy improvement strategies and projects by accounting for the effects of variables such as annual production levels and weather. DOE has developed a companion Energy Performance Indicator software tool (EnPI) to simplify the baselining process. This tool can run regression models, calculate changes in EI at the facility level, and automatically compile facility-level data into a corporate-wide metric. Note that although the relevant equations used to calculate EI are provided in this document, the EnPI tool will automatically perform most calculations for the user. Additionally, Better Plants Partners (Partners) can call on their Technical Account Manager (TAM) to help them establish a baseline and assist with the necessary calculations to track progress.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Feedstock/Pretreatment Screening for Bioconversion of Sugars and Lignin Residues

This project will conduct biomass deconstruction (pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification) on two representative biomass feedstocks and four different pretreatment processes, including three high temperature steam/chemical pretreatments and one low temperature chemical/mechanical pretreatment. A third biomass feedstock will undergo biomass deconstruction with three different pretreatment processes, including two high temperature chemical pretreatments and one low temperature chemical/mechanical pretreatment. Several pretreatment conditions will be performed in a screening study using NLR pilot-scale pretreatment equipment to generate a range of pretreated biomass substrates. A selected number of these substrates will be chosen for enzymatic saccharification evaluation, based on standard compositional analysis of the pretreated substrates as a primary indicator of pretreatment efficacy. Resulting enzymatic hydrolysis slurries will be analyzed to determine overall biomass sugar yields. Additional compositional analysis will be performed to determine oligomeric sugar composition and structure, to analyze structural characteristics of solids fractions on native, pretreated, and enzymatically saccharified biomass residues for one of the biomass feedstocks, corn stover. The enzymatically saccharified materials will undergo 2,3-butanediol fermentation in a shaker flask as bench scale. Using relevant process performance data collected in these various conversion steps, technoeconomic analysis activities will be performed to compare the economic potential of the various biomass feedstock and pretreatment processes and to identify key economic drivers and sustainability metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Selenium Migration and Local Structures in Cu‐Doped CdSeTe Solar Cells after Aging

Selenium grading plays a critical role in state-of-the-art Cadmium Telluride photovoltaic cells by enhancing long-wavelength absorption and extending minority carrier lifetimes —key to enabling the current performance record of 23.08%. However, very little is understood about selenium motion. In this study, a comprehensive, multimodal, and multiscale approach is employed to investigate Se migration and local structural changes in copper (Cu)-doped CdSeTe solar cells subjected to accelerated stress. X-ray fluorescence (XRF) microscopy shows unexpected levels of Se diffusion after 500 h under heat (75°C) and light (0.8 suns, 80 mW/cm 2 ), suggesting the coexistence of fast and slow diffusion channels even at low temperatures, with unexpectedly low activation energies (<0.85 eV). X-ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) analysis indicates a preferential migration of Se atoms to anionic lattice sites and a reduction in Se-Cl co-passivation at Te-terminated dislocation cores. Furthermore, these findings point to a reconfiguration of Se local environments and highlight the potential role of extended structural defects in enabling Se transport at low temperatures. Additionally, XANES results suggest that the presence of metallic Cu across the absorber layer may contribute to back-contact degradation and reduced hole density in both fresh and aged devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Unveiling the drivers contributing to global wheat yield shocks through quantile regression

Sudden reductions in crop yield (i.e., yield shocks) severely disrupt the food supply, intensify food insecurity, depress farmers' welfare, and worsen a country's economic conditions. Here, we study the spatiotemporal patterns of wheat yield shocks, quantified by the lower quantiles of yield fluctuations, in 86 countries over 30 years. Furthermore, we assess the relationships between shocks and their key ecological and socioeconomic drivers using quantile regression based on statistical (linear quantile mixed model) and machine learning (quantile random forest) models. Using a panel dataset that captures spatiotemporal patterns of yield shocks and possible drivers in 86 countries, we find that the severity of yield shocks has been increasing globally since 1997. Moreover, our cross-validation exercise shows that quantile random forest outperforms the linear quantile regression model. Despite this performance difference, both models consistently reveal that the severity of shocks is associated with higher weather stress, nitrogen fertilizer application rate, and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (a typical indicator for economic and technological advancement in a country). While the unexpected negative association between more severe wheat yield shocks and higher fertilizer application rate and GDP per capita does not imply a direct causal effect, they indicate that the advancement in wheat production has been primarily on achieving higher yields and less on lowering the possibility and magnitude of sharp yield reductions. Hence, in the context of growing extreme weather stress, there is a critical need to enhance the technology and management practices that mitigate yield shocks to improve the resilience of the world food systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗