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NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of Wing Load Calibration and Sensing Methods Using Conventional Strain Gages and a Fiber Optic Sensing System Installed on a Straight Tapered Wing

State-of-the-art instrumentation techniques have provided an opportunity to obtain greater insight into structural wing loads during flight. An investigation was undertaken to research new wing instrumentation and load sensing techniques for measuring accurate in-flight spanwise load distributions on wing structures. A straight tapered wing was instrumented with both conventional foil strain gages at five spanwise wing stations and fiber optic strain sensors at every half inch along the entire wing span. Thirty-nine unique load cases were applied to the wing lower surface using hydraulic actuators to obtain various shear, bending moment, and torque load distributions on the wing. This paper will highlight three load calibration approaches. Conventional linear regression calibration methods were applied to foil strain gages providing a single wing station vertical shear, bending moment, and torque load. Linear regression methods were applied to a fiber optic sensing system to provide bending moment and torque spanwise load distributions. A load sensing scheme using strain derived wing shape information derived from a single load case provided vertical shear and bending moment spanwise load distribution information. Aspects of the three different approaches will be compared and contrasted to inform the reader of the benefits or disadvantages of each. Instrument installation, sensor characteristics, test execution aspects, and recommended calibration techniques will be discussed.

structural mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2019

Operation of a Heat Pipe with Multiple Heat Loads Under Reflux Mode

"Heat pipes are being used on many spacecraft to acquire heat dissipated by the payload and transport the heat to a remote radiator. In instrument-level or spacecraft-level ground testing, many heat pipes are placed in a gravity-driven reflux mode where the condenser is well above the evaporator, resulting in the formation of a liquid pool at the bottom of the heat pipe. If a head load is applied to a site that is in contact with the liquid pool, the generated vapor will flow upward to the condenser and the condensate will fall back to the evaporator due the influence of gravity. Hence, the heat pipe can operate steadily under reflux mode because the heated site always has sufficient liquid supply to sustain the fluid flow. In contrast, when a heat load is applied to a site remote from the liquid pool, the heat pipe will be unable to transfer heat through liquid evaporation unless the heated site has a chance to be in contact with liquid. This can be accomplished by applying an additional heat load to the liquid pool to establish a reflux flow so that the remote site can capture the falling condensate. An experimental investigation was conducted to study the effect of gravity on the thermal performance of a heat pipe under reflux mode with multiple heat loads. An aluminum ammonia heat pipe with internal axial grooves was placed in a vertical position. Cooling was provided to the top of the heat pipe, and heat was applied to three sites below the condenser with various heat distributions. One of the heated sites was above the liquid pool, and two were in direct contact with the liquid pool. Test results showed that when a heat load was applied to either one or both of the lower sites, the heat pipe could run steadily under reflux mode. After a reflux flow had been established, a heat load could be applied to the upper site. If the upper site could capture sufficient liquid falling from the condenser to handle its heat load solely by liquid evaporation, the heat pipe could reach steady operation. Otherwise, the temperature of the upper site would oscillate due to its intermittent contact with the falling liquid. For a given heat load to the upper site, the amplitude of temperature oscillation decreased with an increasing heat load to the lower sites because there was more falling condensate available for the upper site to capture. Moreover, the temperature oscillation disappeared completely when the total heat loads to lower sites exceeded a threshold power, and the threshold power increased with an increasing heat load to the upper site."

Ku, Jentung↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improvements of the Load Schedule for the Machine Calibration of a Strain-Gage Balance

The load schedule for the calibration of a six-component force balance in a calibration machine was improved. Now, single-component loads are repeated in regular intervals during the calibration. This approach has several advantages. First, the number of single-component loads increases to about twenty-two percent of all loads and load combinations. Consequently, more accurate numerical estimates of the primary bridge sensitivities can be obtained if global regression is used for the analysis of the calibration data. In addition, single-component repeats make it possible to track the stability of the applied loads during the calibration process. Finally, interactions of single-component repeats can be compared with interactions that are observed during the application of manual loads to the balance. Machine calibration and manual data sets of two force balances are used to illustrate benefits of the new load schedule. It is shown in the examples how differences between the observed interactions of machine calibration and manual data can be quantified. The suggested improvements can also be implemented in the load schedule for the machine calibration of a moment or direct-read balance as long as single-component loads are included that are described in the design load format of the balance.

wind tunnel test↗

DOE OSTI2021

Coupling system for reducing fatigue and dynamic amplification of loads in objects

A coupling system can include an energy transfer device and a load mitigation system. The energy transfer device can include a shaft, gear, chain or piston-cylinder arrangement to transfer the energy from a power supply to an object to be moved. The load mitigation system can be used to limit or prevent the transfer of forces from the object to the drive unit as a result of external loads being applied to the object. The load mitigation system can be pre-loaded such that external loads on the object having an excessive impulsive or resonant cyclic force greater than the pre-load force on the load mitigation system are reduced and only partially transferred to the energy transfer device and power supply. The load mitigation system can dampen both resonant loads and impulsive impact loads occurring at the object thereby preventing damage and extending life.

Blackmon, James B.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling system for reducing fatigue and dynamic amplification of loads in objects

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing patterns and variability of building electric load profiles in time and frequency domains

The rapid development of advanced metering infrastructure provides a new data source—building electrical load profiles with high temporal resolution. Electric load profile characterization can generate useful information to enhance building energy modeling and provide metrics to represent patterns and variability of load profiles. Such characterizations can be used to identify changes to building electricity demand due to operations or faulty equipment and controls. In this study, we proposed a two-path approach to analyze high temporal resolution building electrical load profiles: (1) time-domain analysis and (2) frequency-domain analysis. Furthermore, the commonly adopted time-domain analysis can extract and quantify the distribution of key parameters characterizing load shape such as peak-base load ratio and morning rise time, while a frequency-domain analysis can identify major periodic fluctuations and quantify load variability. We implemented and evaluated both paths using whole-year 15-minute interval smart meter data of 188 commercial office building in Northern California. The results from these two paths are consistent with each other and complementary to represent full dynamics of load profiles. The time- and frequency-domain analyses can be used to enhance building energy modeling by: (1) providing more realistic assumptions about building operation schedules, and (2) validating the simulated electric load profiles using the developed variability metrics against the real building load data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of sampling frequency and estimation method on phosphorus load uncertainty in the Western Lake Erie Basin, Ohio, USA

Accurate estimates of nutrient loads are necessary to identify critical source areas and quantify the impact of management practices on pollutant export. Previous studies have investigated nutrient load estimate uncertainty, but they often focus on nutrient loads estimated using an interpolation method for large-scale watersheds with short-term datasets. The study objective was to quantify uncertainty in soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), total phosphorus (TP), and suspended solids (SS) load estimates from two small (<10 3 km 2 ) agricultural watersheds in the western Lake Erie Basin resulting from different sampling frequencies. Each watershed had high temporal resolution datasets of discharge (15 min) and nutrient concentration (1 to 3 samples per day) collected over a 30-year period (1990–2020). Firstly, SRP, TP, and SS loads were calculated using the high temporal resolution datasets, which was assumed as “true loads”. Secondly, the high temporal concentration data were decomposed to semiweekly, weekly, biweekly, and monthly sampling and annual loads were estimated using four common load estimation methods to assess the effect of sampling frequency and load estimation method on load estimate error. Across the four different methods, the composite method had the lowest relative root mean square and absolute bias, but the rectangular interpolation method was the most precise. Furthermore, even with semiweekly sampling, the composite method resulted in an unacceptable level of precision (average imprecision = 39 %), while the interpolation method resulted in an unacceptable bias (average absolute bias = 16 %). Because neither method could provide acceptable accuracy and precision at the lowest decrease in sampling (e.t. semiweekly sampling), continued daily sampling is recommended in these watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Load Analysis Methods for NASAs GIII Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge Project

The Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC), and FlexSys Inc. (Ann Arbor, Michigan) have collaborated to flight test the Adaptive Compliant Trailing Edge (ACTE) flaps. These flaps were installed on a Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (GAC) GIII aircraft and tested at AFRC at various deflection angles over a range of flight conditions. External aerodynamic and inertial load analyses were conducted with the intention to ensure that the change in wing loads due to the deployed ACTE flap did not overload the existing baseline GIII wing box structure. The objective of this paper was to substantiate the analysis tools used for predicting wing loads at AFRC. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models and distributed mass inertial models were developed for predicting the loads on the wing. The analysis tools included TRANAIR (full potential) and CMARC (panel) models. Aerodynamic pressure data from the analysis codes were validated against static pressure port data collected in-flight. Combined results from the CFD predictions and the inertial load analysis were used to predict the normal force, bending moment, and torque loads on the wing. Wing loads obtained from calibrated strain gages installed on the wing were used for substantiation of the load prediction tools. The load predictions exhibited good agreement compared to the flight load results obtained from calibrated strain gage measurements.

Aerodynamic Loads↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence on Structural Loading of a Wave Energy Converter by Controlling Variable-Geometry Components and the Power Take-Off

Oceans are harsh environments and can impose significant loads on deployed structures. The deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) faces a design challenge with apparently contradictory goals. A WEC should be designed to maximize the energy absorbed while ensuring the operating wave condition does not exceed the failure limits of the device itself. Therefore, the loads endured by the support structure are a design constraint for the system. Adaptability to different sea states is, therefore, highly desirable. This work uses a WEC-Sim model of a variable-geometry oscillating wave energy converter (VGOSWEC) mounted on a support structure simulated under different wave scenarios. A VGOSWEC resembles a paddle pitching about a fixed hinge perpendicular to the incoming wave fronts. Therefore, the hinge experiences loads perpendicular to its axis as it maintains its position. The geometry of the VGOSWEC is varied by opening a series of controllable flaps on the pitching paddle when the structure experiences threshold loads. Because opening the flaps lets the waves transmit through the paddle, it is hypothesized that opening the flaps should result in load shedding at the base of the support structure. The load shedding is achieved by reducing the moments about the hinge axis. This work compares the hydrodynamic coefficients, natural periods, and response amplitude operators from completely closed to completely open configurations of the controllable flaps. The comparisons quantify the effects of letting the waves transmit through the VGOSWEC. This work shows that the completely open configuration can reduce the pitch and surge loads on the base of the support structure by as much as 80%. It was observed that at the paddle's resonance frequency, the loads on the structure increased substantially. This increase in loads can be mitigated by a rotational power take-off damping about the hinge axis. Changing the rotational power take-off damping was identified as an additional design parameter that can be used to control the loads experienced by the WEC's support structure.

fixed and floating structures↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Plug Load Energy Use and Savings Potential in Army Buildings

The Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy and Environment) tasked the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to examine plug loads in typical Army buildings. Plug loads (also known as miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)) represent the electricity used by appliances and devices that are plugged in or hardwired and serve functions outside of a building’s core end uses. Common plug loads include computers, printers, copiers, networking devices, refrigerators, and vending machines. They also include personal electronic devices such as televisions, smart phones, tablets, and gaming systems. Examples of hardwired MELs include elevators, air compressors, and fire and security systems. The findings from this study confirm that significant energy is consumed within Army buildings by plug load devices and hardwired MEL equipment. A number of opportunities are identified for reducing unnecessary energy use that could save the Army over $5 million per year when broadly applied. Army regulations clearly spell out expectations for the purchase and operation of information technology equipment (computers, laptops, monitors, printers, and multi-function devices). However, the policies regarding the shutdown or activation of sleep and other lower power modes after 30 minutes of inactivity (15 minutes for monitors) do not appear to be consistently followed. There are many effective approaches and pathways for impacting change as it relates to improving awareness, implementing measures, and adjusting behaviors to identify and reduce plug load energy use. The Army should prioritize and consider deploying all of these to better understand and manage plug load equipment to save energy and enhance resilience across their facilities. Engaging the building occupants who use these devices daily via outreach and education should be a strong component of the strategy. The focus should be on reducing waste without sacrificing productivity or the benefits that many of these devices provide. Continued evaluation of plug loads beyond that performed here is important to gather lessons from additional building and equipment types, and to stay aware of evolving device technology and management options. This will highlight additional needs for policies, best practices, control technologies, and education of personnel to achieve real reductions in energy waste from plug load equipment. It is recommended that this study may serve as the foundation for a broader and sustained focus on plug loads and MELs, towards simultaneously enhancing the productivity, readiness, and resilience of the Army while reducing energy use and demand, and freeing up resources to better support the mission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Limits on the Range and Rate of Change in Power Take-Off Load in Ocean Wave Energy Conversion: A Study Using Model Predictive Control

Previous work comparing power take-off (PTO) architectures for ocean wave-powered reverse osmosis suggests that variable displacement in the wave energy converter (WEC)-driven pump does not offer a significant performance advantage. A limitation of that study is that the WEC was subject to a constant load within a given sea state (“Coulomb damping”) and did not account for controlled, moment-to-moment variation of the PTO load enabled by a variable displacement pump. This study explores the potential performance advantage of a variable PTO load over Coulomb damping. Model predictive control is used to provide optimal load control with constraints on the PTO load. The constraints include minimum and maximum loads and a limit on the rate of load adjustment. Parameter studies on these constraints enable conclusions about PTO design requirements in addition to providing an estimated performance advantage over Coulomb damping. Numerical simulation of the Oyster 1 WEC is carried out with performance weighted by historical sea state data from Humboldt Bay, CA. The results show a performance advantage of up to 20% higher yearly-average power absorption over Coulomb damping. Additionally, the parameter studies suggest that the PTO load should be adjustable down to at least 25% of the maximum load and should be adjustable between the minimum and maximum loads within a few seconds.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind and wake characteristics on wind turbine loads in a small wind farm

Abstract. Wind turbines are designed using a set of simulations to determine the fatigue and ultimate loads, which are typically focused solely on unwaked wind turbine operation. These structural loads can be significantly influenced by the wind inflow conditions. Turbines experience altered inflow conditions when placed in the wake of upstream turbines, which can additionally influence the fatigue and ultimate loads. It is important to understand the impact of uncertainty on the resulting loads of both unwaked and waked turbines. The goal of this work is to assess which wind-inflow-related and wake-related parameters have the greatest influence on fatigue and ultimate loads during normal operation for turbines in a three-turbine wind farm. Twenty-eight wind inflow and wake parameters are screened using an elementary effects sensitivity analysis approach to identify the parameters that lead to the largest variation in the fatigue and ultimate loads of each turbine. This study uses the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine, simulated with OpenFAST and synthetically generated inflow based on the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum with the IEC exponential coherence model using the NREL tool TurbSim. The focus is on sensitivity to individual parameters, though interactions between parameters are considered, and how sensitivity differs between waked and unwaked turbines. The results of this work show that for both waked and unwaked turbines, ambient turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine fatigue and ultimate loads. Secondary parameters of importance for all turbines are identified as yaw misalignment, streamwise integral length, and the exponent and streamwise components of the IEC coherence model. The tertiary parameters of importance differ between waked and unwaked turbines. Tertiary effects account for up to 9.0 % of the significant events for waked turbine ultimate loads and include veer, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, air density, and several wake calibration parameters. For fatigue loads, tertiary effects account for up to 5.4 % of the significant events and include vertical turbulence standard deviation, lateral and vertical wind integral lengths, non-streamwise components of the IEC coherence model, Reynolds stresses, wind direction, and all wake calibration parameters. This information shows the increased importance of non-streamwise wind components and wake parameters in the fatigue and ultimate load sensitivity of downstream turbines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1946

Tank tests to determine the effect of varying design parameters of planing-tail hulls II : effect of varying depth of step, angle of after- body keel, length of afterbody chine, and gross load

The second part of a series of tests made in Langley tank no. 2 to determine the effect of varying design parameters of planing-tail hulls is presented. Results are given to show the effects on resistance characteristics of varying angle of afterbody keel, depth of step, and length of afterbody chine. The effect of varying the gross load is shown for one configuration. The resistance characteristics of planing-tail hulls are compared with those of a conventional flying-boat hull. The forces on the forebody and afterbody of one configuration are compared with the forces on a conventional hull. Increasing the angle of afterbody keel had small effect on hump resistance and no effect on high-speed resistance but increased free-to-trim resistance at intermediate speeds. Increasing the depth of step increased hump resistance, had little effect on high-speed resistance, and increased free-to-trim resistance at intermediate speeds. Omitting the chines on the forward 25 percent of the afterbody had no appreciable effect on resistance. Omitting 70 percent of the chine length had almost no effect on maximum resistance but broadened the hump and increased spray around the afterbody. Load-resistance ratio at the hump decreased more rapidly with increasing load coefficient for the planing-tail hull than for the representative conventional hull, although the load-resistance ratio at the hump was greater for the planing-tail hull than for the conventional hull throughout the range of loads tested. At speeds higher than hump speed, load-resistance ratio for the planing-tail hull was a maximum at a particular gross load and was slightly less at heavier and lighter gross loads. The planing-tail hull was found to have lower resistance than the conventional hull at both the hump and at high speeds, but at intermediate speeds there was little difference. The lower hump resistance of the planing-tail hull was attributed to the ability of the afterbody to carry a greater percentage of the total load while maintaining a higher value of load-resistance ratio.

HULLS - RESISTANCE - TANK TESTS (NACA-#2)↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of the 2nd Gen 3.7m HIAD Static Load Test

To support NASAs long term goal of landing humans on Mars, technologies which enable the landing of heavy payloads are being developed. Current entry, decent, and landing technologies are not practical for human class payloads due to geometric constraints dictated by current launch vehicle fairing limitations. Therefore, past and present technologies are now being explored to provide a mass and volume efficient solution to atmospheric entry, including Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIADs). In October of 2014, a 3.7m HIAD inflatable structure with an integrated flexible thermal protection sys-tem (F-TPS) was subjected to a static load test series to verify the designs structural performance. The 3.7m HIAD structure was constructed in a 70 deg sphere-cone stacked-toroid configuration using eight inflatable tori, which were joined together using adhesives and high strength textile webbing to help distribute the loads throughout the inflatable structure. The inflatable structure was fabricated using 2nd generation structural materials that permit an increase in use temperature to 400 C+ as compared to the 250 C limitation of the 1st generation materials. In addition to the temperature benefit, these materials also offer a 40 reduction in structure mass. The 3.7m F-TPS was fabricated using high performance materials to protect the inflatable structure from heat loads that would be seen during atmospheric entry. The F-TPS was constructed of 2nd generation TPS materials increasing its heating capability from 35W sq cm to over 100W sq cm. This test article is the first stacked-torus HIAD to be fabricated and tested with a 70 deg sphere-cone. All previous stacked-torus HIADs have employed a 60o sphere-cone. To perform the static load test series, a custom test fixture was constructed. The fixture consisted of a structural tub rim with enough height to allow for dis-placement of the inflatable structure as loads were applied. The tub rim was attached to the floor to provide an airtight seal. The center body of the inflatable structure was attached to a pedestal mount as seen in Figure 1. Using an impermeable membrane seal draped over the test article, partial vacuum was pulled beneath the HIAD, resulting in a uniform static pressure load applied to the outer surface. During the test series an extensive amount of instrumentation was used to characterize deformed shape, shoulder deflection, strap loads, and cord loads as a function of structural configuration and applied static load. In this overview, the 3.7m HIAD static load test series will be discussed in detail, including the 3.7m HIAD inflatable structure and flexible TPS design, test setup and execution, and finally results and conclusions from the test series.

HIAD↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence on Structural Loading of a Wave Energy Converter by Controlling Variable-Geometry Components and the Power Take-Off: Preprint

Oceans are a harsh environment and can impose significant loads on deployed structures. Deployment of wave energy converters (WECs) faces a design challenge with apparently contradictory goals. A WEC should be designed to maximize the energy absorbed while ensuring the operating wave condition does not exceed the failure limits of the device itself. Therefore, the loads endured by the support structure are a design constraint for the system. Adaptability to different sea states is, therefore, highly desirable. This work uses a WEC-Sim model of a Variable Geometry Oscillating Wave Energy Converter (VGOSWEC) mounted on a support structure simulated under different wave scenarios. A VGOSWEC resembles a paddle pitching about a fixed hinge perpendicular to the incoming waves-fronts. Therefore, the hinge experiences loads perpendicular to its axis as it maintains its position. The geometry of the VGOSWEC was varied by opening a series of controllable flaps on the pitching paddle when the structure experiences threshold loads. Since opening the flaps lets the waves transmit through the paddle, it is hypothesized that opening the flaps should result in load shedding at the base of the support structure. This load shedding is achieved by reducing the moments about the hinge axis. This work compares the hydrodynamic coefficients, natural periods, and Response Amplitude Operators (RAOs) from completely closed to completely open configurations of the controllable flaps. These comparisons quantify the effects of letting the waves transmit through the VGOSWEC. This work shows that the completely open configuration can reduce the pitch and surge loads on the base of the support structure by as much as 80%. It was observed that at the paddle's resonance frequency, the loads on the structure increased substantially. This increase in loads can be mitigated by a rotational Power Take-off (PTO) damping about the hinge axis. Changing the rotational PTO damping was identified as an additional design parameter that can be used to control the loads experienced by the WEC's support structure.

fixed and floating structures↗

DOE OSTI2019

Device-level plug load disaggregation in a zero energy office building and opportunities for energy savings

Along with heating, cooling, ventilation, and lighting, plug loads are one of the principal consumers of energy in commercial buildings. Managing ever-changing plug loads is a great challenge given the quantity and variety of devices in commercial buildings and the cost of monitoring equipment. To address this issue, we propose a method for developing a disaggregated model of an office building's plug loads that utilizes power data from a small portion of monitored devices and a device inventory. Using data from metering and control devices in the Research Support Facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we compared our model to the building's plug load submeters. We found that the model was effective in predicting the shape of the building's average plug loads; however, it did not account for the entire magnitude of the load. With the disaggregated breakdown, we identified devices that contributed significantly to the building's unoccupied load, such as the audio visual equipment as well as devices that contributed significantly at specific times of the day, such as the microwaves at noon. This disaggregated information enables building owners to make more informed decisions with respect to plug load controls and energy efficiency upgrades. Furthermore, we highlight how the plug loads in the Research Support Facility have changed over time and offer recommendations for implementing this disaggregation method in other buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mechanical Response of Castlegate Sandstone under Hydrostatic Cyclic Loading

The stress history of rocks in the subsurface affects their mechanical and petrophysical properties. Rocks can often experience repeated cycles of loading and unloading due to fluid pressure fluctuations, which will lead to different mechanical behavior from static conditions. This is of importance for several geophysical and industrial applications, for example, wastewater injection and reservoir storage wells, which generate repeated stress perturbations. Laboratory experiments were conducted with Castlegate sandstone to observe the effects of different cyclic pressure loading conditions on a common reservoir analogue. Each sample was hydrostatically loaded in a triaxial cell to a low effective confining pressure, and either pore pressure or confining pressure was cycled at different rates over the course of a few weeks. Fluid permeability was measured during initial loading and periodically between stress cycles. Samples that undergo cyclic loading experience significantly more inelastic (nonrecoverable) strain compared to samples tested without cyclic hydrostatic loading. Permeability decreases rapidly for all tests during the first few days of testing, but the decrease and variability of permeability after this depend upon the loading conditions of each test. Cycling conditions do affect the mechanical behavior; the elastic moduli decrease with the increasing loading rate and stress cycling. The degree of volumetric strain induced by stress cycles is the major control on permeability change in the sandstones, with less compaction leading to more variation from measurement to measurement. The data indicate that cyclic loading degrades permeability and porosity more than static conditions over a similar period, but the petrophysical properties are dictated more by the hydrostatic loading rate rather than the total length of time stress cycling is imposed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗