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At least 289 records · Page 16

Quantifying the Impacts of Land-Cover Change on the Hydrologic Response to Hurricane Ida in the Lower Mississippi River Basin

Abstract The Lower Mississippi River basin (LMRB) has experienced significant changes in land cover and is one of the most vulnerable regions to hurricanes in the United States. Here, we study the impacts of land-cover change on the hydrologic response to Hurricane Ida in LMRB. By using an integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model, Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model coupled with the three-dimensional ParFlow subsurface flow model (ELM-ParFlow), we simulate the effects of land-cover change on the flood volume and peak timing induced by rainfall from Hurricane Ida. The results show that land-cover changes from 1850 to 2015, which resulted in a smoother surface and less vegetation, exacerbated both flood peak time and volume induced by Hurricane Ida. The effects of land-cover changes can be decomposed into two mechanisms: a smoother surface routes more water faster to a watershed outlet and less vegetation allows more water to contribute to surface runoff. By comparing scenarios in which the two mechanisms were isolated, we found that changes in soil moisture due to vegetation cover change have more dominant effects on floods in the southern part and changes in Manning’s coefficient have the largest effect on floods in the northern part of the LMRB. The study provides important insights into the complex relationship between land-use, land-cover, and hydrologic processes in coastal regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Energy Exascale Earth System Model v2.0

First release of version 2 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. The atmosphere component remains EAM. Major changes since version 1 include: all column-physics parameterizations are computed on a separate grid that has approximately half the number of points of the dynamics grid, a new nonhydrostatic dynamical core (running in hydrostatic mode) with semi-Lagrangian tracer transport, CLUBB updated from v1 to v2, a new convective trigger (dCAPE/ULL) based on the dynamic Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) (dCAPE) and the Unrestricted Launch Level (ULL) concepts is used in ZM. minimum cloud droplet number changed, gravity wave drag energy conservation fixed and new tunings used, dust emission size distribution changed to emit more coarse dust particles The land component is still ELM. Major changes since version 1 include: using SNICAR-AD for radiation in snow to match the sea-ice model and fixing bugs in snow compaction and water state calculation. The ocean component remains MPAS-ocean. Major change since version 1 include: Redi isopycnal mixing has been updated, tested, and tuned in combination with the Gent-McWilliams parameterization, a sign error was fixed in the 3rd-order flux routines, the mesh used in low-resolution coupled cases was modified and the time steps adjusted, new regionally refined meshes were created, one focused on North America and another on the Southern Ocean, including ice shelf cavities. The sea-ice component remains MPAS-seaice. Major changes since version 1 include: A new heat- and freshwater-conserving coupling of frazil ice, turning off of SSH filtering, addition of SNICAR-AD and snow grain aging. The land-ice component remains MPAS-Albany-landIce (MALI) and is a static ice sheet. There is more out-of-the-box support for cryosphere configurations including the new regionally refined configuration around Antarctica with ice shelf cavities. The river model is MOSART. The half-degree river mesh was redone so it no longer treats Black and Caspian seas as ocean. The coupler remains cpl7/MCT. Major changes since version 1 include handling of ice shelf melt fluxes (heat / freshwater exchange with the ocean), and data icebergs. All components allow regional refinement of their meshes and two separate example of refinement, one in and around North America and one around Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, are provided.

E3SM Project, DOE↗

Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate Multi-Sectoral Urban Interactions: Fundamental Science Needs to Inform Pathways to More Resilient Communities in a Changing Climate

Urban areas and the supply networks that support their resource use are inherently multisectoral systems composed of infrastructural, environmental, and socio-institutional components. These systems are vulnerable to accelerating and interacting stresses from climate change, population growth, resource scarcity, and land-use pressure at the same time as they have a major influence on regional and global systems. For instance, a majority of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, food consumption, and economic activity can be attributed to urban areas. Urban areas are highly heterogenous, both across and within cities in terms of their socio-demographic, environmental, and infrastructural characteristics. This heterogeneity shapes how urban systems interact and co-evolve and contributes to different economic, environmental, and health outcomes for communities within urban areas. Urban heterogeneity also generates differential vulnerabilities to stressors and differential capacity for adapting to change. The evolution of urban space is thus critical in shaping how human societies respond to global change as they seek to improve resilience to stressors, support prosperous and equitable communities, and use natural resources in a sustainable manner. Developing fundamental scientific understanding of urban heterogeneity and system interactions across sectors and scales is critical for mapping the resilience, sustainability, and equity implications of alternative future pathways. On July 2021 the MSD Urban Systems Working Group organized this workshop to provide a venue for coordination and identification of shared objectives, research themes, and major knowledge gaps, as well as developing a shared strategy for addressing these gaps. This report summarizes the outcomes of this workshop.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The implications of uncertain renewable resource potentials for global wind and solar electricity projections

Studies exploring long-term energy system transitions rely on resource cost-supply curves derived from estimates of renewable energy (RE) potentials to generate wind and solar power projections. However, estimates of RE potentials are characterized by large uncertainties stemming from methodological assumptions that vary across studies, including factors such as the suitability of land and the performance and configuration of technology. Based on a synthesis of modeling approaches and parameter values used in prior studies, we explore the implications of these uncertain assumptions for onshore wind and solar photovoltaic electricity generation projections globally using the Global Change Analysis Model. We show that variability in parametric assumptions related to land use (e.g. land suitability) are responsible for the most substantial uncertainty in both wind and solar generation projections. Additionally, assumptions about the average turbine installation density and turbine technology are responsible for substantial uncertainty in wind generation projections. Under scenarios that account for climate impacts on wind and solar energy, we find that these parametric uncertainties are far more significant than those emerging from differences in climate models and scenarios in a global assessment, but uncertainty surrounding climate impacts (across models and scenarios) have significant effects regionally, especially for wind. Our analysis suggests the need for studies focusing on long-term energy system transitions to account for this uncertainty.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

VIC-Global Parameter Dataset Sensitivity with the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model: Evaluating the importance of dynamic land surface parameters when using the VIC-Global parameter dataset

Accurate prediction of runoff is essential to water resources management, flood risk assessment, and ecosystem protection. However, many hydrological models still have relatively substantial limitations when representing the influence of land use and land cover (LULC) on runoff generation and routing. Changes in LULC, such as deforestation, urban expansion, agricultural intensification, and wetland loss, have been shown to alter the water balance at the land surface through fundamental hydrologic processes (e.g., interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, and soil storage). However, it remains an open question what the exact magnitude and timing of these impacts are for the spatial and temporal scales commonly used in engineering applications. In this analysis we focus on one aspect of recent LULC change for assessing human impacts, which is urbanization. Specifically we seek to determine the impacts of urbanization on the magnitude and timing of surface runoff and baseflow in HUC-12 basins in Clark County, Nevada which has experienced rapid urbanization. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model with a widely used off-the-shelf dataset of land surface parameters, VIC-Global, both of which have been commonly used in the past for water and energy balance modeling for large scale hydrologic studies. We examine two scenarios where the first scenario removes all urbanized land cover and parameterizes those areas of the basins as barren or open shrubland. The second scenario tests the opposite case where all areas of the basins are classified as urban regardless of their present classification. The results from the VIC model show there is a low sensitivity for daily surface runoff between scenarios. The daily baseflow values indicate similar low sensitivity to the classification change during specific periods, but then have substantial differences during other period when large precipitation events are occurring. This is likely due to the assumed parameter values for the urban land cover classification made by the VIC-Global dataset. Using a static land cover parameterization is reasonable for large domain hydrology models that are being used for near-term planning horizons (<30 years). However, longer planning horizons where feedbacks between the atmosphere and land surface are important, especially in transient climate situations, considerations for how to update land surface parameters should be incorporated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Increased nitrogen use efficiency in crop production can provide economic and environmental benefits

Potential economic and environmental benefits of increasing nitrogen-use efficiency (NUE) are widely recognized but scarcely quantified. This study quantifies the effects of increased NUE on 1) the national agricultural economy using a simulation model of US agriculture and 2) regional water quality effects using a biogeochemical model for the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Here, national economic effects are reported for NUE improvement scenarios of 10%, 20%, 50%, and 100%, whereas regional water quality effects are estimated for a 20% NUE improvement scenario in the Arkansas-White-Red river basin. Simulating a 20% increase in NUE in row crops is shown to reduce N requirements by 1.4 million tonnes y-1 and increase farmer net profits by 1.6% ($743 million) per year by 2026 over the baseline simulation for the same period. For each 10% increase in NUE, annual farm revenues for commodity crops increased over the baseline by approximately $350 million per year by 2026. Changes in crop prices and land-use relative to the baseline were less than 2%. This suggests a net benefit even though fertilizer cost savings can result in increased cultivation of land, i.e., ‘Jevon's paradox’. Results from the biogeochemical model of the Arkansas-White-Red river basin suggest that a 20% increase in NUE corresponds to a 5.72% reduction in nitrate loadings to freshwaters, with higher reductions in agricultural watersheds. The value of these reductions was estimated as $43 ha-1, for a total of $15.3 to 136.7 million yr-1 in avoided water treatment costs. After estimating the social value of increased NUE, we conclude with a discussion of potential strategies to increase efficiency and the research needed to achieve this goal. These include perennialization of the agricultural landscape, genetic crop improvement, targeted fertilizer application, and manipulation of the plant-root microbiome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global monthly sectoral water use for 2010–2100 at 0.5° resolution across alternative futures

Water usage is closely linked with societal goals that are both local and global in scale, such as sustainable development and economic growth. It is therefore of value, particularly for long-term planning, to understand how future sectoral water usage could evolve on a global scale at fine resolution. Additionally, future water usage could be strongly shaped by global forces, such as socioeconomic and climate change, and the multi-sector dynamic interactions those forces create. We generate a novel global gridded monthly sectoral water withdrawal and consumption dataset at 0.5° resolution for 2010–2100 for a diverse range of 75 scenarios. The scenarios are harmonized with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios to support its usage in studies evaluating the implications of uncertain human and earth system change for future global and regional dynamics. To generate the data, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with a land use spatial downscaling model (Demeter), a global hydrologic framework (Xanthos), and a water withdrawal downscaling model (Tethys).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate cooling benefits of cellulosic bioenergy crops from elevated albedo

Abstract Changes in land surface albedo can alter ecosystem energy balance and potentially influence climate. We examined the albedo of six bioenergy cropping systems in southwest Michigan USA: monocultures of energy sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor ), switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.), and giant miscanthus ( Miscanthus × giganteus) , and polycultures of native grasses, early successional vegetation, and restored prairie. Direct field measurements of surface albedo ( α s ) from May 2018 through December 2020 at half‐hourly intervals in each system quantified the magnitudes and seasonal differences in albedo (∆ α ) and albedo‐induced radiative forcing (RF ∆ α ). We used a nearby forest as a historical native cover type to estimate reference albedo and RF ∆ α change upon original land use conversion, and a continuous no‐till maize ( Zea mays L .) system as a contemporary reference to estimate change upon conversion from annual row crops. Annually, α s differed significantly ( p < 0.05) among crops in the order: early successional (0.288 ± 0.012SE) >> miscanthus (0.271 ± 0.009) ≈ energy sorghum (0.270 ± 0.010) ≥ switchgrass (0.265 ± 0.009) ≈ restored prairie (0.264 ± 0.012) > native grasses (0.259 ± 0.010) > maize (0.247 ± 0.010). Reference forest had the lowest annual α s (0.134 ± 0.003). Albedo differences among crops during the growing season were also statistically significant, with growing season α s in perennial crops and energy sorghum on average ~20% higher (0.206 ± 0.003) than in no‐till maize (0.184 ± 0.002). Average non‐growing season (NGS) α s (0.370 ± 0.020) was much higher than growing season α s (0.203 ± 0.003) but these NGS differences were not significant. Overall, the original conversion of reference forest and maize landscapes to perennials provided a cooling effect on the local climate (RF αMAIZE : −3.83 ± 1.00 W m −2 ; RF αFOREST : −16.75 ± 3.01 W m −2 ). Significant differences among cropping systems suggest an additional management intervention for maximizing the positive climate benefit of bioenergy crops, with cellulosic crops on average ~9.1% more reflective than no‐till maize, which itself was about twice as reflective as the reference forest.

Lei, Cheyenne↗

Coupled Biotic-Abiotic Processes Control Biogeochemical Cycling of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Columbia River Hyporheic Zone

A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed ecosystems involves understanding the role that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays in driving whole ecosystem metabolism. The hyporheic zone—a biogeochemical control point where ground water and river water mix—is characterized by high DOM turnover and microbial activity and is responsible for a large fraction of lotic respiration. Yet, the dynamic nature of this ecotone provides a challenging but important environment to parse out different DOM influences on watershed function and net carbon and nutrient fluxes. We used high-resolution Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to provide a detailed molecular characterization of DOM and its transformation pathways in the Columbia river watershed. Samples were collected from ground water (adjacent unconfined aquifer underlying the Hanford 300 Area), Columbia river water, and its hyporheic zone. The hyporheic zone was sampled at five locations to capture spatial heterogeneity within the hyporheic zone. Our results revealed that abiotic transformation pathways (e.g., carboxylation), potentially driven by abiotic factors such as sunlight, in both the ground water and river water are likely influencing DOM availability to the hyporheic zone, which could then be coupled with biotic processes for enhanced microbial activity. The ground water profile revealed high rates of N and S transformations via abiotic reactions. The river profile showed enhanced abiotic photodegradation of lignin-like molecules that subsequently entered the hyporheic zone as low molecular weight, more degraded compounds. While the compounds in river water were in part bio-unavailable, some were further shown to increase rates of microbial respiration. Together, river water and ground water enhance microbial activity within the hyporheic zone, regardless of river stage, as shown by elevated putative amino-acid transformations and the abundance of amino-sugar and protein-like compounds. This enhanced microbial activity is further dependent on the composition of ground water and river water inputs. Our results further suggest that abiotic controls on DOM should be incorporated into predictive modeling for understanding watershed dynamics, especially as climate variability and land use could affect light exposure and changes to ground water essential elements, both shown to impact the Columbia river hyporheic zone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Effects of spatial variability in vegetation phenology, climate, landcover, biodiversity, topography, and soil property on soil respiration across a coastal ecosystem

Coastal terrestrial-aquatic interfaces (TAIs) are crucial contributors to global biogeochemical cycles and carbon exchange. A systematic evaluation of the interaction between coastal catchment properties and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission by soil respiration is significant for assessing carbon dynamics and predicting the future trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in coastal TAIs. The soil CO2 efflux in these transition zones is however poorly understood due to the high spatiotemporal dynamics of TAIs, as various sub-ecosystems in this region are compressed and expanded by complex influences of tides, changes in river levels, climate, and land use. We focus on the Chesapeake Bay region to (i) investigate the spatial heterogeneity of the coastal ecosystem and identify spatial zones with similar environmental characteristics based on the spatial data layers, including vegetation index (kNDVI), climate, landcover, diversity, topography, soil property, and relative tidal elevation; (ii) understand the primary driving factors affecting soil respiration within sub-ecosystems of the coastal ecosystem. Specifically, we employed hierarchical clustering analysis to identify spatial regions with distinct environmental characteristics, followed by the determination of main driving factors using Random Forest regression and SHapley Additive exPlanations. Maximum and minimum temperature are the main drivers common to all sub-ecosystems, while each region also has additional unique major drivers that differentiate them from one another. Precipitation exerts an influence on vegetated lands, while soil pH value holds importance specifically in forested lands. In croplands characterized by high clay content and low sand content, the significant role is attributed to bulk density. Wetlands demonstrate the importance of both elevation and sand content, with clay content being more relevant in non-inundated wetlands than in inundated wetlands. The topographic wetness index significantly contributes to the mixed vegetation areas, including shrub, grass, pasture, and forest. Additionally, our research reveals that dense vegetation land covers and urban/developed areas exhibit distinct soil property drivers. Overall, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to modeling carbon fluxes in coastal TAIs, and our study highlights the importance of further research and monitoring practices to improve our understanding of carbon dynamics and promote the sustainable management of coastal TAIs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inundation and Sediment Supply Predict Annual but Not Centennial Carbon Accumulation in Tidal Wetlands Across Land‐Use Types

Despite growing interest in the contributions of tidal wetlands to natural climate solutions, data remain scarce on how land use affects their carbon accumulation rates (CAR). Additionally, environmental factors driving the large observed variability in CAR among sites are poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured short-term (∼1 year) and long-term (∼100 years) CAR using feldspar marker horizons, 210 Pb profiles, and surface elevation tables from 39 sites in seven estuaries in Oregon and Washington, USA. Sites varied in wetland type (tidal marsh, tidal swamp, nontidal pasture), land-use history (reference, restored, and disturbed), and salinity (fresh to polyhaline). Across both timescales, CAR was lowest in disturbed pastures and highest in restored marshes, reflecting patterns in sediment accretion rates. Short-term CAR exceeded long-term CAR by approximately 50% on average and was only weakly correlated with long-term CAR, with differences among hydrogeomorphic setting. Short-term CAR was well predicted by summer inundation frequency and relative sediment load, together explaining 60% of variance, whereas long-term CAR was poorly predicted by contemporary environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of aligning predictor and response timescales when modeling blue carbon dynamics, and reinforce the climate mitigation potential of tidal wetland restoration.

land use and land cover change↗

Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change

Fire behaviour is changing in many regions worldwide. However, nonlinear interactions between fire weather, fuel, land use, management and ignitions have impeded formal attribution of global burned area changes. Here, in this work, we demonstrate that climate change increasingly explains regional burned area patterns, using an ensemble of global fire models. The simulations show that climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) [13.1–18.7]) for 2003–2019 and increased the probability of experiencing months with above-average global burned area by 22% (95% CI [18–26]). In contrast, other human forcings contributed to lowering burned area by 19.1% (95% CI [21.9–15.8]) over the same period. Moreover, the contribution of climate change to burned area increased by 0.22% (95% CI [0.22–0.24]) per year globally, with the largest increase in central Australia. Our results highlight the importance of immediate, drastic and sustained GHG emission reductions along with landscape and fire management strategies to stabilize fire impacts on lives, livelihoods and ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Soil disturbance and invasion magnify CO 2 effects on grassland productivity, reducing diversity

Climate change, disturbance, and plant invasion threaten grassland ecosystems, but their combined and interactive effects are poorly understood. Here, in this study, we examine how the combination of disturbance and plant invasion influences the sensitivity of mixed-grass prairie to elevated carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) and warming. We established subplots of intact prairie and disturbed/invaded prairie within a free-air CO 2 enrichment (to 600 ppmv) by infrared warming (+1.5°C day, 3°C night) experiment and followed plant and soil responses for 5 years. Elevated CO 2 initially led to moderate increases in biomass and plant diversity in both intact and disturbed/invaded prairie, but these effects shifted due to strong eCO 2 responses of the invasive forb Centaurea diffusa. In the final 3 years, biomass responses to eCO 2 in disturbed/invaded prairie were 10 times as large as those in intact prairie (+186% vs. +18%), resulting in reduced rather than increased plant diversity (-17% vs. +10%). At the same time, warming interacted with disturbance/invasion and year, reducing the rate of topsoil carbon recovery following disturbance. The strength of these interactions demonstrates the need to incorporate disturbance into predictions of climate change effects. In contrast to expectations from studies in intact ecosystems, eCO 2 may threaten plant diversity in ecosystems subject to soil disturbance and invasion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARB Attawapiskat River Bog produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-ARF Attawapiskat River Fen produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Todd, Aaron↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB2 Polar Bear 2 - Fen. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-PB1 Polar Bear 1 - Peat Plateau. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗

AmeriFlux CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-KLP Kinoje Lake Peatland. Site Description - Ontario Ministry of Environment and Climate Change's Environmental Monitoring and Reporting Branch has established five carbon flux monitoring towers in Ontario’s Far North as part of its Climate Change Modelling and Monitoring program. These long term monitoring stations measure carbon exchange and a suite of soil and meteorological parameters over peatland ecosystems to better understand carbon cycling in Ontario’s Far North. Information produced by these monitoring stations will assist the province in land use planning and the development of climate change adaptation strategies.

Humphreys, Elyn [Carleton University]↗