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DOE OSTI2022

Achieving an 80% carbon-free electricity system in China by 2035

Dramatic reductions in solar, wind, and battery storage costs create new opportunities to reduce emissions and costs in China’s electricity sector, beyond current policy goals. This study examines the cost, reliability, emissions, public health, and employment implications of increasing the share of non-fossil fuel (“carbon free”) electricity generation in China to 80% by 2035. The analysis uses state-of-the-art modeling with high resolution load, wind, and solar inputs. The study finds that achieving an 80% carbon free electricity system in China by 2035 could reduce wholesale electricity costs, relative to a current policy baseline, while maintaining high levels of reliability, reducing deaths from air pollution, and increasing employment. In our 80% scenario, wind and solar generation capacity reach 3 TW and battery storage capacity reaches 0.4 TW by 2035, implying a rapid scale up in these resources that will require changes in policy targets, markets and regulation, and land use policies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1981

The application of simulation modeling to the cost and performance ranking of solar thermal power plants

A computer simulation code was employed to evaluate several generic types of solar power systems (up to 10 MWe). Details of the simulation methodology, and the solar plant concepts are given along with cost and performance results. The Solar Energy Simulation computer code (SESII) was used, which optimizes the size of the collector field and energy storage subsystem for given engine-generator and energy-transport characteristics. Nine plant types were examined which employed combinations of different technology options, such as: distributed or central receivers with one- or two-axis tracking or no tracking; point- or line-focusing concentrator; central or distributed power conversion; Rankin, Brayton, or Stirling thermodynamic cycles; and thermal or electrical storage. Optimal cost curves were plotted as a function of levelized busbar energy cost and annualized plant capacity. Point-focusing distributed receiver systems were found to be most efficient (17-26 percent).

Rosenberg, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Systems Analysis Of Advanced Coal-Based Power Plants

Report presents appraisal of integrated coal-gasification/fuel-cell power plants. Based on study comparing fuel-cell technologies with each other and with coal-based alternatives and recommends most promising ones for research and development. Evaluates capital cost, cost of electricity, fuel consumption, and conformance with environmental standards. Analyzes sensitivity of cost of electricity to changes in fuel cost, to economic assumptions, and to level of technology. Recommends further evaluation of integrated coal-gasification/fuel-cell integrated coal-gasification/combined-cycle, and pulverized-coal-fired plants. Concludes with appendixes detailing plant-performance models, subsystem-performance parameters, performance goals, cost bases, plant-cost data sheets, and plant sensitivity to fuel-cell performance.

Ferrall, Joseph F.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Local Power: Comparing County-Level Renewable Energy Potential to Consumption Using the SLOPE Platform

Wide-scale deployment of renewable energy technologies has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. Many communities have ambitious clean energy goals with targets for locally generated renewable energy. To inform state and local clean energy planning, analysts from the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) used data from NREL's State and Local Planning for Energy (SLOPE) platform to compare annual technical generation potential of renewable energy technologies to modeled electricity consumption in every county of the contiguous United States. Annual costs were calculated to produce a 20% share of electricity consumed annually from each technology to examine localized cost effectiveness of a diversified mix of generation sources. For example, combining distributed and utility-scale wind and solar generation can offset the need for storage and nonintermittent fossil resources to achieve high deployment of renewables. This county-level analysis provides insight into where localized renewable energy generation could cost-effectively match annual electricity consumption.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Component-Level Bottom-Up Cost Model for Pumped Storage Hydropower

Pumped Storage Hydropower (PSH) is currently the largest source of utility-scale electricity storage in the U.S. and worldwide. As the accelerating deployment of variable renewable technologies creates opportunity and value for energy storage, it has become increasingly important to characterize PSH costs to understand how it competes. Site-specific considerations and limited cost data in the public domain make it difficult to estimate capital costs for potential new PSH sites. This report documents a spreadsheet-based tool that addresses this challenge and creates a component-level bottom-up cost model for PSH that can be made publicly available for widespread use. It uses detailed site-level physical characteristics and design specifications to calculate key performance and cost parameters for individual components and the project as a whole. The model was developed in consultation with HDR, Inc. and Small Hydro Consulting to ensure it aligns with industry expectations. It enables PSH cost exploration across a wide range of system assumptions and could be customized or extended for the needs of a variety of users.

cost model↗

DOE OSTI2020

Water and Wastewater Systems as Potential Distributed Energy Resources for California - High-level Feasibility Assessment

Water systems in California are a major electricity user, and electricity costs represent a significant portion of water utilities’ operating costs. Water and wastewater utilities have the capacity to shift demand in response to grid needs or price signals and can generate power through biogas, hydropower or onsite renewable energy systems like solar panels and wind turbines. This report points to some of the most promising opportunity areas for water and wastewater utilities to implement distributed energy resources while also carefully laying out practical considerations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1990

AEOSS design guide for system analysis on Advanced Earth-Orbital Spacecraft Systems

Advanced Earth Orbital Spacecraft System (AEOSS) enables users to project the requried power, weight, and cost for a generic earth-orbital spacecraft system. These variables are calculated on the component and subsystem levels, and then the system level. The included six subsystems are electric power, thermal control, structure, auxillary propulsion, attitude control, and communication, command, and data handling. The costs are computed using statistically determined models that were derived from the flown spacecraft in the past and were categorized into classes according to their functions and structural complexity. Selected design and performance analyses for essential components and subsystems are also provided. AEOSS has the feature permitting a user to enter known values of these parameters, totally and partially, at all levels. All information is of vital importance to project managers of subsystems or a spacecraft system. AEOSS is a specially tailored software coded from the relational database program of the Acius; 4th Dimension with a Macintosh version. Because of the licensing agreement, two versions of the AEOSS documents were prepared. This version AEOSS Design Guide, is for users to exploit the full capacity of the 4th Dimension. It is for a user who wants to alter or expand the program structures, the program statements, and the program procedures. The user has to possess a 4th Dimension first.

Lee, Hwa-Ping↗

NASA NTRS1990

AEOSS runtime manual for system analysis on Advanced Earth-Orbital Spacecraft Systems

Advanced earth orbital spacecraft system (AEOSS) enables users to project the required power, weight, and cost for a generic earth-orbital spacecraft system. These variables are calculated on the component and subsystem levels, and then the system level. The included six subsystems are electric power, thermal control, structure, auxiliary propulsion, attitude control, and communication, command, and data handling. The costs are computed using statistically determined models that were derived from the flown spacecraft in the past and were categorized into classes according to their functions and structural complexity. Selected design and performance analyses for essential components and subsystems are also provided. AEOSS has the feature permitting a user to enter known values of these parameters, totally and partially, at all levels. All information is of vital importance to project managers of subsystems or a spacecraft system. AEOSS is a specially tailored software coded from the relational database program of the Acius' 4th Dimension with a Macintosh version. Because of the licensing agreements, two versions of the AEOSS documents were prepared. This version, AEOSS Runtime Manual, is permitted to be distributed with a finite number of the restrictive 4D Runtime version. It can perform all contained applications without any programming alterations.

Lee, Hwa-Ping↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Wind Turbine Rotors of the Future: A Research Agenda from the Big Adaptive Rotor Project

This white paper outlines a roadmap to inform future research efforts around the wind turbine rotors of the future. The document is authored by researchers that have been working on the Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) and related initiatives at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. The Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy has been funding BAR since 2018. The learnings from BAR have been documented in dozens of publications. This new paper identifies unresolved critical challenges in wind turbine rotor technology and structures them in four large topic areas: 1. Predictive and validated numerical tools. 2. Design methods and standards. 3. Improvements in manufacturing. 4. Technological innovations. Although wind turbines have not changed in their core architecture, with the market almost entirely dominated by three-bladed upwind rotors, a vast amount of research has allowed to introduce technological innovations resulting in a reduction in levelized cost of energy that made wind competitive with all traditional sources of electricity. Focusing on the rotor, blades will keep following the trend of mass and stiffness reduction, will adopt segmentation, and will keep growing in length, both land-based and offshore. To support this continuous innovation, this white paper argues that research efforts in rotor technology at the national labs are best directed to the first three topic areas and to low technology-readiness-levels (1-3) innovations, leaving the task of implementing higher-TRL (4-9) technological innovations to industry stakeholders. This research roadmap is also well aligned with the upcoming roadmap defined during the International Energy Agency 109th Topical Expert Meeting on the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Potential Availability of and Supply Curves for Low-Cost, Dispatch-Constrained Electricity

Among other changes, variable renewable energy (VRE) - primarily wind and solar photovoltaics - is achieving a growing share of total generation. High VRE penetrations may result in an increased level of curtailment and thus suppress the value of additional VRE. This VRE, that either would not be built due to price suppression or would be curtailed, can be considered a resource that we define as low-cost, dispatch-constrained electricity (LDE). LDE could be used for various applications which value low-cost electricity and can operate at reduced capacity factors. Examples include electrolytic hydrogen production and carbon capture. This report provides initial estimates of the quantity and availability of the potential LDE resource in the U.S. under scenarios with high VRE penetrations. It also provides supply curves that can be used in subsequent analysis of the opportunity to use the LDE. We modeled several scenarios using capacity expansion and production cost models for LDE prices ranging from $\$ $0/MWh to $\$ $30/MWh. These LDE prices, coupled with low renewable energy cost assumptions, resulted in VRE penetrations ranging from 48-66% in 2050. The resulting LDE supplies range from 100 - 300 TWh/yr at a price of $\$ $0/MWh to 3,500 - 4,200 TWh/yr at $\$ $30/MWh. Increasing LDE prices increases wind and photovoltaics deployment; however, other generation technology capacities do not decrease equivalently in our models. Thus, additional generation is available but the capacity of traditional dispatchable generation is only reduced slightly. The available LDE is concentrated in the central and southwest U.S. regions because of their high wind and solar resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Regional Analysis for an Economically and Environmentally Viable Transition to Heavy-Duty Vehicles with Alternative Powertrains

The transportation sector is responsible for a significant portion of greenhouse gas emissions. Within the sector, truck freight is responsible for a third of the associated emissions. Alternative powertrains are seen as a viable approach to significantly reduce these emissions. Prior to making a large-scale transition, it is important to consider the following questions: will the power grid support a transition to alternative powertrains?; will the transition truly reduce carbon emissions?; and will the transition impose an unnecessary economic burden on companies within the industry? The answer to these questions, however, can vary by geography, maturity/capacity of the energy distribution network or predicted vehicle load. We focus on the latter two questions, investigating the variation in estimated total cost of ownership and carbon emissions across the United States at the zip code level for both heavy-duty battery electric vehicles and heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicles. As a benchmark, we compare estimated emissions and costs of alternative powertrain vehicles to that of conventional heavy-duty vehicles powered by diesel internal combustion engines. This work highlights areas with electric grids primed for a transition to alternative powertrain vehicles, such as the Pacific Northwest, and areas that require further infrastructure investment in renewables, such as many of the Mountain states, Missouri, and Florida. Additionally, this work illustrates the current advantages in carbon emissions of battery electric vehicles compared to fuel-cell electric vehicles, while providing insights into required regional investments for narrowing the gap.

Goulet, Nate [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000237314965)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long Duration Energy Storage Viability Survey

Energy storage technologies that can economically store and provide electricity over multi-day and seasonal timescales are likely to be a critical component of a sustainable and resilient energy system. This analysis performs a broad survey of energy storage technologies to find storage media that are promising for these long-duration energy storage applications.

levelized cost of storage↗

DOE OSTI2023

How Today's Hydropower Impacts Tomorrow's Grid: Counterfactual Scenarios Showing Grid Impacts if Hydropower Goes Away

Amidst ongoing discussions about hydropower removals, retirements, and reduced availability due to drought and other environmental considerations, it is important to understand the long-term effects of reduced hydropower resources on the U.S. electric grid. This analysis uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS™) grid planning model to compare several representative scenarios of retiring hydropower and pumped storage hydropower (PSH) capacity over time and explore the overall implications on the U.S. grid from present day through 2050. Reduced hydropower capacity and generation is replaced by a mix of both fossil and non-fossil resources, including natural gas, wind, solar, and battery technologies. Additional natural gas usage leads to an increase in cumulative national electric sector carbon dioxide and criteria pollutant operating emissions of less than 1% in many scenarios but up to 4-5.3% in some cases. Total electric sector costs also increase by <1% in many scenarios but up to 3.6% in the most extreme scenarios where nearly all the hydropower and PSH fleet retires, equating to $\$$340 billion in undiscounted costs. National results indicate that absent additional interventions, retiring hydropower and PSH capacity could increase electric sector emissions and direct capital and operating costs. However, more focused analysis is required to evaluate specific asset-level, local, and regional implications, and a broader scope is necessary to weigh these electric sector impacts alongside economic, ecological, water management, and other cross-sectoral effects that could be either negative or positive.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design Exploration of a Mild Hybrid Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Concept

NASA has performed in-depth research and analysis into hybrid-electric aircraft concepts featuring high levels of electrification. Many of these concepts were found to be infeasible, whereas feasible designs were significantly heavier and more costly compared to conventional concepts. This study presents the development and analysis of an alternative mild hybrid concept that uses relatively low levels of stored electric energy applied strategically throughout the mission. The team researched several mild hybrid technologies, developed integrated aircraft models, and then evaluated the effects of these technologies on vehicle level performance metrics. Technologies explored in this study include the Turbine Electrified Energy Management system, electric taxi, electric climb assist, and replacing the auxiliary power unit with on-board electric energy storage. Key enabling technologies were energy storage devices that prioritized high power output over energy capacity and integrating electric motors with the shafts of the gas turbine engines. Significant performance improvements were observed when applying multiple technologies separately and in combination, with the most promising configuration incorporating all of them at once. Results for the mild hybrid configuration indicate an 8.2% reduction in block fuel, a 7.7% reduction in equivalent CO2 emissions, and a 3.5% increase in gross takeoff weight compared to a conventional baseline. Results of a cost analysis suggest the mild hybrid slightly reduces direct operating cost plus interest, which demonstrates that aircraft emissions can be significantly reduced without the cost increases associated with highly electrified concepts.

Turbine Electrified Energy Managment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost and Life Cycle Analysis for Deep CO 2 Emissions Reduction for Steel Making: Direct Reduced Iron Technologies

Among heavy industrial sectors worldwide, the steel industry ranks first in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Technologies that produce direct reduced iron (DRI) enable the industry to reduce emissions or even approach net‐zero CO 2 emissions for steel production. Herein, comprehensive cradle‐to‐gate (CTG) life cycle analysis (LCA) and techno‐economic analysis (TEA) are used to evaluate the CO 2 emissions of three DRI technologies. Compared to the baseline of blast furnace and basic oxygen furnace (BF–BOF) technology for steel making, using natural gas (NG) to produce DRI has the potential to reduce CTG CO 2 emissions by 33%. When 83% or 100% renewable H 2 is used for DRI production, DRI technologies can potentially reduce CO 2 emissions by 57% and 67%, respectively, compared to baseline BF–BOF technology. However, the renewable H 2 application for DRI increases the levelized cost of steel (LCOS). When renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean electricity are used for steel production, the CTG CO 2 emissions of all the DRI technologies can potentially be reduced by more than 90% compared to the baseline BF–BOF technology, although the LCOS depends largely on the cost of RNG and clean electricity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Characterization of Thin Film Solar Cells

Polycrystalline thin-film solar cells have reached a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with all other sources of electricity. The technology has significantly improved in recent years, with laboratory cell efficiencies for cadmium telluride (CdTe), perovskites, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) each exceeding 22 percent. Both CdTe and CIGS solar panels are now produced at the gigawatt scale. However, there are ongoing challenges, including the continued need to improve performance and stability while reducing cost. Advancing polycrystalline solar cell technology demands an in-depth understanding of efficiency, scaling, and degradation mechanisms, which requires sophisticated characterization methods. These methods will enable reseachers and manufacturers to improve future solar modules and systems. This work provides researchers with a concise overview of the status of thin-film solar cell technology and characterization. Chapters describe material systems and their properties and then provide an in-depth look at relevant characterization methods and the learning facilitated by each of these. Following an introductory chapter, the book provides systematic and thorough coverage of the following topics: trends to improve CdTe solar cell performance; Cu(In,Ga)Se2 and related materials; perovskite solar cells; photovoltaic device modelling; luminescence and thermal imaging of thin-film photovoltaic materials, devices, and modules; application of spatially resolved spectroscopy characterization techniques on Cu2ZnSnSe4 solar cells; time-resolved photoluminescence characterization of polycrystalline thin-film solar cells; fundamentals of electrical material and device spectroscopies applied to thin-film polycrystalline chalcogenide solar cells; nanometer-scale characterization of thin-film solar cells by atomic force microscopy-based electrical probes; scanning transmission electron microscopy characterization of solar cells; photoelectron spectroscopy methods in solar cell research; time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography; and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance characterization for photovoltaic applications. The final chapter provides an overview and describes future prospects.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deployment Readiness Framework Subtask 1.1 (Literature Review)

Island and remote coastal communities face some of the most challenging environments for building, operating, and maintaining energy infrastructure, as well as the highest costs for electricity, fuels, and other essential energy sources. As sea-levels rise and storms become more intense and frequent, these communities and the energy infrastructure that supports coastal lives and livelihoods are also at increasing risk from natural hazards. To address these challenges, many coastal communities are envisioning energy solutions that will support the triple bottom line goals of the blue economy: economic growth, environmental sustainability, and social equity. Yet, island and remote coastal communities often face limited resources and capacity to tackle complex energy and coastal resilience issues. To support community-driven energy transitions in island and remote communities, and to better understand relationships between energy, community, and ecosystem resilience, the Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has initiated the development of a Deployment Readiness Framework (DRF). The objective of the work is to co-produce and test practical tools and approaches that assess the readiness of coastal communities for marine energy demonstration, deployment, and operation. The DRF aims to build on and support the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Program (ETIPP) and other community-oriented energy transition programs. This project is jointly led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The development of the DRF includes three main phases: 1) a learning phase involving stakeholder engagement and literature review to synthesize metrics of community readiness to advance through an energy transition and to understand the state of the research and practice of participatory science-policy processes in various sectors, 2) a design phase to define readiness approaches and tools that will be developed as part of the DRF, and 3) an implementation phase to create the applications and interfaces for WPTO and the national laboratories to interact with the DRF. All three phases include close collaboration with communities and end-users of the framework, first to identify gaps in the science and tools needed to achieve community-driven energy transition goals and second, to test and improve the framework iteratively. Through technical assistance programs like ETIPP and utilizing the completed DRF to understand the influencing factors which motivate or deter energy transitions, WPTO hopes to engage a number of near-term marine energy demonstration opportunities. Here we report on the results from the literature review (Subtask 1.1) to inform the stakeholder engagement (Subtask 1.2) and design phase (Task 2) of the project.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

2022 System Optimization Awardee: XFlow Energy Company

Vertical-axis wind turbines offer several cost-saving advantages over traditional horizontal-axis wind turbines, including lower blade manufacturing costs and a simpler mechanical design. Unfortunately, until now, vertical configurations have not been able to match the power production and durability of more conventional horizontal-axis models. XFlow Energy Company (XFlow Energy) plans to improve the design and reduce the production costs of its 25-kilowatt (kW) vertical-axis wind turbine, delivering a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with that of U.S. retail electricity generated by coal-fired power plants. XFlow Energy's efficient turbine also is designed to maximize power production and longevity. Two previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards funded XFlow Energy's development of a 10-meter vertical-axis turbine prototype.

CIP↗