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NASA NTRS2003

Airport Pricing Strategies

Conventional economic wisdom suggests that congestion pricing would be an appropriate response to cope with the growing congestion levels currently experienced at many airports. Several characteristics of aviation markets, however, may make naive congestion prices equal to the value of marginal travel delays a non-optimal response. This paper has developed a model of airport pricing that captures a number of these features. The model in particular reflects that airlines typically have market power and are engaged in oligopolistic competition at different sub-markets; that part of external travel delays that aircraft impose are internal to an operator and hence should not be accounted for in congestion tolls. We presented an analytical treatment for a simple bi-nodal symmetric network, which through the use of 'hyper-networks' would be readily applicable to dynamic problems (in discrete time) such as peak - off-peak differences, and some numerical exercises for the same symmetric network, which was only designed to illustrate the possible comparative static impacts of tolling, in addition to marginal equilibrium conditions as could be derived for the general model specification. Some main conclusions are that second-best optimal tolls are typically lower than what would be suggested by congestion costs alone and may even be negative, and that the toll as derived by Brueckner (2002) may not lead to an increase in total welfare. While Brueckner (2002) has made clear that congestion tolls on airports may be smaller than expected when congestion costs among aircraft are internal for a firm, our analysis adds to this that a further downward adjustment may be in order due to market power. The presence of market power (which causes prices to exceed marginal costs) may cause the pure congestion toll to be suboptimal, because the resulting decrease in demand is too high (the pure congestion tall does not take into account the decrease in consumer surplus). The various downward adjustments in welfare maximizing tolls may well cause the optimal values of these to be negative. Insofar as subsidization is considered unacceptable for whichever reason, our results warn that the most efficient among the non-negative tolls may actually be a zero toll; the pure congestion toll may actually decrease welfare compared to the base case. The model in this paper contains a few simplifying assumptions that may be relaxed in future work. Load factors and aircraft capacity are fixed in this model for simplicity. In a more advanced version of this model, load factors and aircraft capacity can be endogenized. This makes the derivation of the optimality conditions far more complicated, but it should be feasible in a numerical experiment. One can also add a fourth layer to the model, describing the airport's optimization problem. For example, the airport can maximize profits under a cost recovery constraint. The model then deals with interactions between four types of agents. No distinction is made between peak and off-peak traffic in this paper. Finally, the results of the numerical exercise in this paper need to be checked against an asymmetric equilibrium.

Pels, Eric↗

NASA NTRS2006

Earth Observations and the Role of UAVs: A Capabilities Assessment

This document provides an assessment of the civil UAV missions and technologies and is intended to parallel the Office of the Secretary of Defense UAV Roadmap. The intent of this document is four-fold: 1. Determine and document desired future missions of Earth observation UAVs based on user-defined needs 2. Determine and document the technologies necessary to support those missions 3. Discuss the present state of the platform capabilities and required technologies, identifying those in progress, those planned, and those for which no current plans exist 4. Provide the foundations for development of a comprehensive civil UAV roadmap to complement the Department of Defense (DoD) effort (http://www.acq.osd.mil/uas/). Two aspects of the President's Management Agenda (refer to the document located at: www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2002/mgmt.pdf ) are supported by this undertaking. First, it is one that will engage multiple Agencies in the effort as stakeholders and benefactors of the systems. In that sense, the market will be driven by the user requirements and applications. The second aspect is one of supporting economic development in the commercial sector. Market forecasts for the civil use of UAVs have indicated an infant market stage at present with a sustained forecasted growth. There is some difficulty in quantifying the value of the market since the typical estimate excludes system components other than the aerial platforms. Section 2.4 addresses the civil UAV market forecast and lists several independent forecasts. One conclusion that can be drawn from these forecasts is that all show a sustained growth for the duration of each long-term forecast.

Cox, Timothy H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Application of the Hilbert-Huang Transform to Financial Data

A paper discusses the application of the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method to time-series financial-market data. The method was described, variously without and with the HHT name, in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles and supporting documents. To recapitulate: The method is especially suitable for analyzing time-series data that represent nonstationary and nonlinear phenomena including physical phenomena and, in the present case, financial-market processes. The method involves the empirical mode decomposition (EMD), in which a complicated signal is decomposed into a finite number of functions, called "intrinsic mode functions" (IMFs), that admit well-behaved Hilbert transforms. The HHT consists of the combination of EMD and Hilbert spectral analysis. The local energies and the instantaneous frequencies derived from the IMFs through Hilbert transforms can be used to construct an energy-frequency-time distribution, denoted a Hilbert spectrum. The instant paper begins with a discussion of prior approaches to quantification of market volatility, summarizes the HHT method, then describes the application of the method in performing time-frequency analysis of mortgage-market data from the years 1972 through 2000. Filtering by use of the EMD is shown to be useful for quantifying market volatility.

Huang, Norden↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Aeronautics Sustainable Aviation Overview

We live in challenging but exciting times for aviation as the sector continues to emerge from the unprecedented impact of a global pandemic while addressing its contribution to global warming. This perfect storm provides opportunity and the drivers that can lead to the most substantial changes the aviation sector has seen since the convergence of jet engines and swept wings over 60 years ago. The reality is we are entering the dawn of a new era of sustainable aviation full of opportunities and challenges that must economically address the health and transportation needs of society with unprecedentedly low impact on local, regional, and global environments. Today, commercial aviation physically connects countries across the globe and is an integral, critical part of today’s expanding global economy. Commercial aviation relies almost entirely on subsonic transport aircraft to constantly move people and goods from one place to another across the globe. While an effective means of transportation providing an unmatched combination of payload, speed, and range, future subsonic aircraft must continue to improve to meet efficiency, environmental, and economic goals established around the world to sustain the substantial growth projected in this well-established market. Commercial supersonic transports have come and gone in the global market, but they are on the verge of reemerging. Vertical lift vehicles leveraging breakthroughs in autonomous systems and electrified propulsion are positioned for massive growth in local and regional markets leading to daily flights within metropolitan areas that may exceed that across countries. To succeed, these new aircraft must be sustainable from day 1. NASA Aeronautics has a long history of contributions to aviation, and today it continues to address the challenge of sustainable growth of the traditional air transportation system through the research and development of systems and technologies for future aircraft and airspace operations. Research programs over the last decade have set the stage to demonstrate key technologies offering step-change performance and environmental impact. Through a Sustainable Flight National Partnership, NASA will partner with industry, academia, and other government agencies to demonstrate the most promising technologies during the 2020s to enable revolutionary systems in the early 2030s. In parallel, NASA will explore systems and technologies for further benefits approaching zero environmental impact beyond the 2030s. Similarly, NASA programs are addressing the challenges of emerging markets enabled by vertical take-off/landing and low-boom supersonic cruise. This oral-only presentation will focus on opportunities and challenges in the traditional subsonic transport while touching on emerging vertical lift and supersonic commercial aviation markets. NASA’s recent contributions, ongoing research, and plans for sustainable aviation will be discussed, including airframe, propulsion, and integrated vehicle systems and technologies.

James A. Kenyon↗

NASA NTRS1976

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market.

Davis, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A study of some economic factors relating to the development and implementation of a satellite power system

Areas are examined relating to the design, development and implementation of a satellite power system (SPS): an analysis of the effect of energy R&D programs in general and SPS in particular on optimal fossil fuel consumption patterns, a study of alternative uses of SPS technologies, and a study of the electric power market penetration potential for SPS. It is shown that a credible program of R&D on long-range energy alternatives leads to lower optimal prices for fossil fuels, resulting in large short-term benefits accruing to the specific program elements. Several alternative uses of SPS technologies were identified; however the markets for these technologies are generally quite diffuse and difficult to assess. The notable exception is solar array technology which has, potentially, a very large non-SPS market. It is shown that the market for SPS units derives from two components of demand: the demand created by growth in the electrical energy demand which leads to an increased demand for baseload generating capacity, and a demand created by the need to replace retiring capacity.

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NASA NTRS1978

Prospects for a civil/military transport aircraft

The similarities and disparities between commercial and military payloads, design features, missions, and transport aircraft are enumerated. Two matrices of civil/military transport aircraft designs were evaluated to determine the most cost effective payloads for a projected commercial route structure and air freight market. The probability of this market developing and the prospects for alternate route structures and freight markets are evaluated along with the possible impact on the aircraft designs. Proposals to stimulate the market and increase the viability of the common aircraft concept are reviewed and the possible impact of higher cargo demand on prospects for common civil/military freighters is postulated. The implications of planned advanced technology developments on the aircraft performance and cost are also considered.

Jobe, C. E.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Technical and economic evaluation of advanced air cargo system concepts

The paper reviews NASA air cargo market studies, reports on NASA and NASA-sponsored studies of advanced freighter concepts, and identifies the opportunities for the application of advanced technology. The air cargo market is studied to evaluate the timing for, and the potential market response to, advanced technology aircraft. The degree of elasticity in future air freight markets is also being investigated, since the demand for a new aircraft is most favorable in a price-sensitive environment. Aircraft design studies are considered with attention to mission and design requirements, incorporation of advanced technologies in transport aircraft, new cargo aircraft concepts, advanced freighter evaluation, and civil-military design commonality.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Heat and electricity from the Sun using parabolic dish collector systems

Point focus distributed receiver solar thermal technology for the production of electric power and of industrial process heat is addressed. The thermal power systems project which emphasizes the development of cost effective systems which will accelerate the commercialization and industrialization of plants up to 10 MWe, using parabolic dish collectors is described. The projected size of the isolated load market in the 1990-2000 time period is 300 to 1000 MW/year. Although this market is small in comparison to the grid connected utility market, it is indicated that by assuming only a 20 percent market penetration, up to 10,000 power modules per year would be required to meet this need. At a production rate of 25,000 units/year and assuming no energy storage, levelized bus bar energy costs of 75 mills/kWeh are projected. These numbers are based on what is believed to be a conservative estimate regarding engine-generator conversion efficiency (40 percent) for the 1990 time period. With a more optimistic estimate of efficiency (i.e., 45 percent), the bus bar cost decreases to about 67 mills/kWeh. At very large production rates (400,000 modules/years), the costs decrease to 58 mills/kWeh. Finally, the present status of the technology development effort is discussed.

Truscello, V. C.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Effects off system factors on the economics of and demand for small solar thermal power systems

Market penetration as a function time, SPS performance factors, and market/economic considerations was estimated, and commercialization strategies were formulated. A market analysis task included personal interviews and supplemental mail surveys to acquire statistical data and to identify and measure attitudes, reactions and intentions of prospective SPS users. Interviews encompassed three ownership classes of electric utilities and industrial firms in the SIC codes for energy consumption. A market demand model was developed which utilized the data base developed, and projected energy price and consumption data to perform sensitivity analyses and estimate potential market for SPS.

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NASA NTRS1983

Customer premise service study for 30/20 GHz satellite system

Satellite systems in which the space segment operates in the 30/20 GHz frequency band are defined and compared as to their potential for providing various types of communications services to customer premises and the economic and technical feasibility of doing so. Technical tasks performed include: market postulation, definition of the ground segment, definition of the space segment, definition of the integrated satellite system, service costs for satellite systems, sensitivity analysis, and critical technology. Based on an analysis of market data, a sufficiently large market for services is projected so as to make the system economically viable. A large market, and hence a high capacity satellite system, is found to be necessary to minimize service costs, i.e., economy of scale is found to hold. The wide bandwidth expected to be available in the 30/20 GHz band, along with frequency reuse which further increases the effective system bandwidth, makes possible the high capacity system. Extensive ground networking is required in most systems to both connect users into the system and to interconnect Earth stations to provide spatial diversity. Earth station spatial diversity is found to be a cost effective means of compensating the large fading encountered in the 30/20 GHz operating band.

Milton, R. T.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Photovoltaics - Where are we going?

The directions that will be followed for solar cell development, production and marketing are projected on the basis of experiences gained during the JPL's Flat-Plate Solar Array project. It is thought that a billion dollar market for Si ribbons can be established by 1990. Thin film technology will yield a product at $2 U.S./W at the end of the 1980s. R&D is growing more focused on central station photovoltaic generators, although the residential market may be the more suitable goal. The intermediate markets, e.g., schools, hospitals and shopping centers may be developed before the central stations.

Callaghan, W. T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

NASA space communications R and D (Research and Development): Issues, derived benefits, and future directions

Space communication is making immense strides since ECHO was launched in 1962. It was a simple passive reflector of signals that demonstrated the concept. Today, satellites incorporating transponders, sophisticated high-gain antennas, and stabilization systems provide voice, video, and data communications to millions of people nationally and worldwide. Applications of emerging technology, typified by NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) to be launched in 1992, will use newer portions of the frequency spectrum (the Ka-band at 30/20 GHz), along with antennas and signal-processing that could open yet new markets and services. Government programs, directly or indirectly, are responsible for many space communications accomplishments. They are sponsored and funded in part by NASA and the U.S. Department of Defense since the early 1950s. The industry is growing rapidly and is achieving international preeminence under joint private and government sponsorship. Now, however, the U.S. space communications industry - satellite manufacturers and users, launch services providers, and communications services companies - are being forced to adapt to a different environment. International competition is growing, and terrestrial technologies such as fiber optics are claiming markets until recently dominated by satellites. At the same time, advancing technology is opening up opportunities for new applications and new markets in space exploration, for defense, and for commercial applications of several types. Space communications research, development, and applications (RD and A) programs need to adjust to these realities, be better coordinated and more efficient, and be more closely attuned to commercial markets. The programs must take advantage of RD and A results in other agencies - and in other nations.

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NASA NTRS1991

Center for Space Power, Texas A and M University

Johnson Controls is a 106 year old company employing 42,000 people worldwide with $4.7 billion annual sales. Though we are new to the aerospace industry we are a world leader in automobile battery manufacturing, automotive seating, plastic bottling, and facilities environment controls. The battery division produces over 24,000,000 batteries annually under private label for the new car manufacturers and the replacement market. We are entering the aerospace market with the nickel hydrogen battery with the help of NASA's Center for Space Power at Texas A&M. Unlike traditional nickel hydrogen battery manufacturers, we are reaching beyond the space applications to the higher volume markets of aircraft starting and utility load leveling. Though space applications alone will not provide sufficient volume to support the economies of scale and opportunities for statistical process control, these additional terrestrial applications will. For example, nickel hydrogen batteries do not have the environmental problems of nickel cadmium or lead acid and may someday start your car or power your electric vehicle. However you envision the future, keep in mind that no manufacturer moves into a large volume market without fine tuning their process. The Center for Space Power at Texas A&M is providing indepth technical analysis of all of the materials and fabricated parts of our battery as well as thermal and mechanical design computer modeling. Several examples of what we are doing with nickel hydrogen chemistry to lead to these production efficiencies are presented.

Jones, Ken↗

NASA NTRS1992

NASA's commercial research plans and opportunities

One of the primary goals of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) commercial space development plan is to encourage the development of space-based products and markets, along with the infrastructure and transportation that will support those products and markets. A three phased program has been instituted to carry out this program. The first phase utilizes government grants through the Centers for the Commercial Development of Space (CCDS) for space-related, industry driven research; the development of a technology data base; and the development of commercial space transportation and infrastructure. The second phase includes the development of these technologies by industry for new commercial markets, and features unique industry/government collaborations such as Joint Endeavor Agreements. The final phase will feature technical applications actually brought to the marketplace. The government's role will be to support industry required infrastructure to encourage start-up markets and industries through follow-on development agreements such as the Space Systems Development Agreement. The Office of Commercial Programs has an aggressive flight program underway on the Space Shuttle, suborbital rockets, orbital expendable launch vehicles, and the Commercial Middeck Accommodation Module with SPACEHAB Inc. The Office of Commercial Program's has been allocated 35 percent of the U.S. share of the Space Station Freedom resources for 1997 utilization. A utilization plan has been developed with the Centers for the Commercial Development of Space and has identified eleven materials processing and biotechnology payloads occupying 5 double racks in the pressurized module as well as two payloads external to the module in materials exposure and environment monitoring. The Office of Commercial Programs will rely on the Space Station Freedom to provide the long duration laboratory component for space-based commercial research.

Arnold, Ray J.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Highly reusable space transportation: Approaches for reducing ETO launch costs to $100 - $200 per pound of payload

The Commercial Space Transportation Study (CSTS) suggests that considerable market expansion in earth-to-orbit transportation would take place if current launch prices could be reduced to around $400 per pound of payload. If these low prices can be achieved, annual payload delivered to low earth orbit (LEO) is predicted to reach 6.7 million pounds. The primary market growth will occur in communications, government missions, and civil transportation. By establishing a cost target of $100-$200 per pound of payload for a new launch system, the Highly Reusable Space Transportation (HRST) program has clearly set its sights on removing the current restriction on market growth imposed by today's high launch costs. In particular, achieving the goal of $100-$200 per pound of payload will require significant coordinated efforts in (1) marketing strategy development, (2) business planning, (3) system operational strategy, (4) vehicle technical design, and (5) vehicle maintenance strategy.

Olds, John R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Damage accumulation in closed cross-section, laminated, composite structures

The need for safe, lightweight, less expensive, and more reliable launch vehicle components is being driven by the competitiveness of the commercial launch market. The United States has lost 2/3 of the commercial lunch market to Europe. As low cost Russian and Chinese vehicles become available, the US market share could be reduced even further. This international climate is driving the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) program at NASA. The goal of the SSTO program is to radically reduce the cost of safe, routine transportation to and from space with a totally reusable launch vehicle designed for low-cost aircraft-like operations. Achieving this goal will require more efficient uses of materials. Composite materials can provide this program with the material and structural efficiencies needed to stay competitive in the international launch market place. In satellite systems the high specific properties, design flexibility, improved corrosion and wear resistance, increased fatigue life, and low coefficient of thermal expansion that are characteristic of composite materials can all be used to improve the overall satellite performance. Some of the satellites that may be able to take advantage of these performance characteristics are the Tethered Satellite Systems (TOSCIFER, AIRSEDS, TSS2, SEDS1, and SEDS2), AXAF, GRO, and the next generation Hubble Space Telescope. These materials can also be utilized in projects at the NASAIMSFC Space Optics Technology and System Center of Excellence. The successful implementation of composite materials requires accurate performance characterization. Materials characterization data for composite materials is typically generated using flat coupons of finite width. At the free edge of these coupons the stress state is exacerbated by the presence of stiffness and geometric discontinuities. The exacerbated stress state has been shown to dominate the damage accumulation in these materials and to have a profound affect on the material constants. Space structures typically have closed cross-sections, absent of free edges. As a result, composite material characterization data generated using finite width flat specimens does not accurately reflect the performance of the composite materials used in a closed cross-section structural configuration. Several investigators have recognized the need to develop characterization techniques for composite materials in closed cross-sectioned structures. In these investigations test methods were developed and cylindrical specimens were evaluated. The behavior of the cylindrical specimens were observed to depart from behavior typical of flat coupons. However, no attempts were made to identify and monitor the progression of damage in these cylindrical specimens during loading. The identification and monitoring of damage is fundamental to the characterization of composite materials in closed cross-section configurations. In the study reported here, a closed cross-sectioned test method was developed to monitor damage progression in 2 in. diameter cylindrical specimens and 1.5 in. finite width flat coupons subjected to quasi-static, tensile loading conditions. Damage in these specimen configurations was monitored using pulse echo ultrasonic, acoustic emission, and X-ray techniques.

Bucinell, Ronald B.↗