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DOE OSTI2013

TIME SERIES MODELS OF THREE SETS OF RXTE OBSERVATIONS OF 4U 1543-47

The X-ray nova 4U 1543-47 was in a different physical state (low/hard, high/soft, and very high) during the acquisition of each of the three time series analyzed in this paper. Standard time series models of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) family are fitted to these series. The low/hard data can be adequately modeled by a simple low-order model with fixed coefficients, once the slowly varying mean count rate has been accounted for. The high/soft series requires a higher order model, or an ARMA model with variable coefficients. The very high state is characterized by a succession of 'dips', with roughly equal depths. These seem to appear independently of one another. The underlying stochastic series can again be modeled by an ARMA form, or roughly as the sum of an ARMA series and white noise. The structuring of each model in terms of short-lived aperiodic and 'quasi-periodic' components is discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Variability selection and quasar luminosity function

The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV/eBOSS) has an extensive quasar program that combines several selection methods. Among these, the photometric variability technique provides highly uniform samples, which are unaffected by the redshift bias of traditional optical-color selections, when z = 2.7-3.5 quasars cross the stellar locus or when host galaxy light affects quasar colors at z< 0.9. We present the variability selection of quasars in eBOSS, focusing on a specific program that led to a sample of 13 876 quasars to g dered = 22.5 over a 94.5 deg 2 region in Stripe 82, which has an areal density 1.5 times higher than over the rest of the eBOSS footprint. We use these variability-selected data to provide a new measurement of the quasar luminosity function (QLF) in the redshift range of 0.68 g (z = 2) = -21.80 at low redshift and to M g (z = 2) = -26.20 at z ~ 4. We fit the QLF using two independent double-power-law models with ten free parameters each. The first model is a pure luminosity-function evolution (PLE) with bright-end and faint-end slopes allowed to be different on either side of z = 2.2. The other is a simple PLE at z< 2.2, combined with a model that comprises both luminosity and density evolution (LEDE) at z> 2.2. Both models are constrained to be continuous at z = 2.2. They present a flattening of the bright-end slope at high redshift. The LEDE model indicates a reduction of the break density with increasing redshift, but the evolution of the break magnitude depends on the parameterization. The models are in excellent accord, predicting quasar counts that agree within 0.3% (resp., 1.1%) to g< 22.5 (resp., g< 23). The models are also in good agreement over the entire redshift range with models from previous studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the Contribution of Precipitation Loss to a Radiation Belt Electron Dropout Observed by Van Allen Probes

A drift-diffusion model is used to simulate the low-altitude electron distribution, accounting for azimuthal drift, pitch angle diffusion, and atmospheric backscattering effects during a rapid electron dropout event on 21st August 2013, at L = 4.5. Additional external loss effects are introduced during times when the low-altitude electron distribution cannot be reproduced by diffusion alone. Here, the model utilizes low-altitude electron count rate data from five POES/MetOp satellites to quantify pitch angle diffusion rates. Low-altitude data provides critical constraint on the model because it includes the drift loss cone region where the electron distribution in longitude is highly dependent on the balance between azimuthal drift and pitch angle diffusion. Furthermore, a newly derived angular response function for the detectors onboard POES/MetOp is employed to accurately incorporate the bounce loss cone measurements, which have been previously contaminated by electrons from outside the nominal field-of-view. While constrained by low-altitude data, the model also shows reasonable agreement with high-altitude data. Pitch angle diffusion rates during the event are quantified and are faster at lower energies. Precipitation is determined to account for all of the total loss observed for 450 keV electrons, 88% for 600 keV and 38% for 900 keV. Predictions made in the MeV range are deemed unreliable as the integral energy channels E3 and P6 fail to provide the necessary constraint at relativistic energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Soil biogeochemical properties and metrics of tree-mycorrhizal dominance for a 25-Ha forest in South Central Indiana, USA.

This data package contains a dataset used in the papers “Seeing the forest for all the trees: Mycorrhizal-associated nutrient economies are modulated by stem density and the synchrony between overstory and understory communities” and “Mycorrhizal associations of tree species influence soil nitrogen dynamics via effects on soil acid–base chemistry”. Four csv files are included along with a dataset. The dataset features chemical soil properties for a single sampling campaign within the 25 Ha Lilly-Dickey Woods Smithsonian Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO) plot in South Central Indiana, USA (ldw_dat_raw.csv). Also included are separate files focused on pH (pH_data.csv), carbon and nitrogen (CN_data.csv), and nitrification rates (Nitrification_data.csv). These variables are commonly associated with the tree-mycorrhizal dominance of forest stands. In these data subsets, each soil variable was matched to a 10 meter radius neighborhood wherein metrics of tree-mycorrhizal dominance (basal area, stem count, importance value, etc.) were calculated. Models between these soil variables and dominance metrics were used to investigate how different assessments of mycorrhizal associated nutrient economies (MANE) capture these relationships. This research was performed as a part of the Smithsonian ForestGEO project. This data package can be used to explore spatial variability in soil chemistry within a mature hardwood forest, or it can be combined with the included tree data, other fine-scale spatial information, or other tree inventory data for the site to evaluate how soil chemistry varies with tree community composition or edaphic or topographic properties.

Craig, Matthew [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000288907920)↗

DOE OSTI2025

StreamGen: Connecting Populations of Streams and Shells to Their Host Galaxies

In this work, we study how the abundance and dynamics of populations of disrupting satellite galaxies change systematically as a function of host galaxy properties. We apply a theoretical model of the phase-mixing process to classify intact satellite galaxies and stellar streamlike and shell-like debris in ∼1500 Milky Way–mass systems generated by a semi-analytic galaxy formation code, SatGen. In particular, we test the effect of host galaxy halo mass, disk mass, ratio of disk scale height to length, and stellar feedback model on disrupting satellite populations. We find that the counts of tidal debris are consistent across all host galaxy models, within a given host mass range, and that all models can have streamlike debris on low-energy orbits, consistent with that observed around the Milky Way. However, we find a preference for streamlike debris on lower-energy orbits in models with a thicker (lower-density) host disk or on higher-energy orbits in models with a more massive host disk. Importantly, we observe significant halo-to-halo variance across all models. These results highlight the importance of simulating and observing large samples of Milky Way–mass galaxies and accounting for variations in host properties when using disrupting satellites in studies of near-field cosmology.

dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2016

Peculiar transverse velocities of galaxies from quasar microlensing. Tentative estimate of the peculiar velocity dispersion at z ∼ 0.5

We propose to use the flux variability of lensed quasar images induced by gravitational microlensing to measure the transverse peculiar velocity of lens galaxies over a wide range of redshift. Microlensing variability is caused by the motions of the observer, the lens galaxy (including the motion of the stars within the galaxy), and the source. Hence, its frequency is directly related to the galaxy’s transverse peculiar velocity. The idea is to count time-event rates (e.g., peak or caustic crossing rates) in the observed microlensing light curves of lensed quasars that can be compared with model predictions for different values of the transverse peculiar velocity. To compensate for the large timescale of microlensing variability, we propose to count and model the number of events in an ensemble of gravitational lenses. We develop the methodology to achieve this goal and apply it to an ensemble of 17 lensed quasar systems. In spite of the shortcomings of the available data, we have obtained tentative estimates of the peculiar velocity dispersion of lens galaxies at z ∼ 0.5, σ{sub pec}(0.53±0.18)≃(638±213)√(〈m〉/0.3 M{sub ⊙}) km s{sup −1}. Scaling at zero redshift, we derive σ{sub pec}(0)≃(491±164)√(〈m〉/0.3 M{sub ⊙}) km s{sup −1}, consistent with peculiar motions of nearby galaxies and with recent N-body nonlinear reconstructions of the Local Universe based on ΛCDM. We analyze the different sources of uncertainty of the method and find that for the present ensemble of 17 lensed systems the error is dominated by Poisson noise, but that for larger ensembles the impact of the uncertainty on the average stellar mass may be significant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Absolute nuclear material assay

A method of absolute nuclear material assay of an unknown source comprising counting neutrons from the unknown source and providing an absolute nuclear material assay utilizing a model to optimally compare to the measured count distributions. In one embodiment, the step of providing an absolute nuclear material assay comprises utilizing a random sampling of analytically computed fission chain distributions to generate a continuous time-evolving sequence of event-counts by spreading the fission chain distribution in time.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2012

Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Absolute nuclear material assay using count distribution (LAMBDA) space

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Informing solar blind radioluminescence imaging through a calibrated spectrum

While direct radiation detection methods offer great insight into the origin of ionizing particles and photons, their use to locate contaminated areas or concealed radioactive sources can lead to undue exposure of personnel and equipment to ionizing radiation or the potential for contamination. These same sources induce ultraviolet (UV) optical photon fluorescence in air – a process referred to as radioluminescence – that may be imaged from low dose regions over larger attenuation lengths than ionizing radiation. However, most optical detection methods are limited to low lighting conditions to image the more abundant ultraviolet-A (UV-A) photons. To extend this capability to room light or daytime conditions, the solar blind region (Ultraviolet-C (UV-C), <280 nm) can be tapped. Though the emission yield of UV-C photons is roughly two orders of magnitude lower than that in the UV-A regime, the UV-C offers dramatic improvements in signal-to-noise ratios under bright lighting conditions due to decreased background interferences. The yield of specific UV-C lines, if present in the literature at all, varies widely, which has a large impact in modeling and analyzing standoff UV-C measurement scenarios. Thus, we have captured improved radioluminescence spectra over 250–400 nm and identified observed emission peaks in ambient air. Many of the UV-C photons produced by ionizing radiation excitation result from high-energy, molecular nitrogen Gaydon-Herman transitions which have had limited study to date for this application. Relating these findings to published UV-A yields, we estimate emissions between 0.15–0.19 photons/MeV over 250–280 nm. Additionally, we also use a commercial corona-discharge imaging camera to demonstrate outdoor UV-C radiation mapping of alpha and gamma emitters from 50 and 75 m standoffs, respectively. The imaged “counts” are compared to optically modelled values and show the same trend over distance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

The NuSTAR extragalactic surveys: the number counts of active galactic nuclei and the resolved fraction of the cosmic X-ray background

We present the 3–8 keV and 8–24 keV number counts of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) identified in the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) extragalactic surveys. NuSTAR has now resolved 33%–39% of the X-ray background in the 8–24 keV band, directly identifying AGNs with obscuring columns up to ∼10{sup 25} cm{sup −2}. In the softer 3–8 keV band the number counts are in general agreement with those measured by XMM-Newton and Chandra over the flux range 5×10{sup −15} ≲ S(3–8 keV)/erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2} ≲ 10{sup −12} probed by NuSTAR. In the hard 8–24 keV band NuSTAR probes fluxes over the range 2×10{sup −14} ≲ S(8–24 keV)/erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2} ≲ 10{sup −12}, a factor ∼100 fainter than previous measurements. The 8–24 keV number counts match predictions from AGN population synthesis models, directly confirming the existence of a population of obscured and/or hard X-ray sources inferred from the shape of the integrated cosmic X-ray background. The measured NuSTAR counts lie significantly above simple extrapolation with a Euclidian slope to low flux of the Swift/BAT 15–55 keV number counts measured at higher fluxes (S(15–55 keV) ≳ 10{sup −11} erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2}), reflecting the evolution of the AGN population between the Swift/BAT local (z<0.1) sample and NuSTAR’s z∼1 sample. CXB synthesis models, which account for AGN evolution, lie above the Swift/BAT measurements, suggesting that they do not fully capture the evolution of obscured AGNs at low redshifts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2023

ENSO and MJO Modulation of U.S. Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Activity

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning substantially impacts human health and property. However, the relations between U.S. lightning activity and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), two predictable drivers of global climate variability, remain uncertain, in part because most lightning datasets have short records that cannot robustly reveal MJO- and ENSO-related patterns. To overcome this limitation, we developed an empirical model of 6-hourly lightning flash count over the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) using environmental variables (convective available potential energy and precipitation) andNational Lightning Detection Network data for 2003–2016. This model is shown to reproduce the observed daily and seasonal variability of lightning over most of CONUS. Then, the empirical model was applied to construct a proxy lightning dataset for the period 1979–2021, which was used to investigate the summer MJO-lightning relationship at daily resolution and the winter-spring ENSO-lightning relationship at seasonal resolution. Overall, no robust relationship between MJO phase and lightning patterns was found when seasonality was taken into consideration. El Niño is associated with increased lightning activity over the Coastal Southeast U.S. during early winter, the Southwest during winter through spring, and the Northwest during late spring, whereas La Niña is associated with increased lightning activity over the Tennessee River Valley during winter.

Lightning↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA Tech Briefs, November 2011

The topics include: 1) Flight Test Results from the Rake Airflow Gage Experiment on the F-15B; 2) Telemetry and Science Data Software System; 3) CropEx Web-Based Agricultural Monitoring and Decision Support; 4) High-Performance Data Analysis Tools for Sun-Earth Connection Missions; 5) Experiment in Onboard Synthetic Aperture Radar Data Processing; 6) Microfabrication of a High-Throughput Nanochannel Delivery/Filtration System; 7) Improved Design and Fabrication of Hydrated-Salt Pills; 8) Monolithic Flexure Pre-Stressed Ultrasonic Horns; 9) Cryogenic Quenching Process for Electronic Part Screening; 10) Broadband Via-Less Microwave Crossover Using Microstrip-CPW Transitions; 11) Wheel-Based Ice Sensors for Road Vehicles; 12) G-DYN Multibody Dynamics Engine; 13) Multibody Simulation Software Testbed for Small-Body Exploration and Sampling; 14) Propulsive Reaction Control System Model; 15) Licklider Transmission Protocol Implementation; 16) Core Recursive Hierarchical Image Segmentation; 17) Two-Stage Centrifugal Fan; 18) Combined Structural and Trajectory Control of Variable-Geometry Planetary Entry Systems; 19) Pressure Regulator With Internal Ejector Circulation Pump, Flow and Pressure Measurement Porting, and Fuel Cell System Integration Options; 20) Temperature-Sensitive Coating Sensor Based on Hematite; 21) Standardization of a Volumetric Displacement Measurement for Two-Body Abrasion Scratch Test Data Analysis; 22) Detection of Carbon Monoxide Using Polymer-Carbon Composite Films; 23) Substituted Quaternary Ammonium Salts Improve Low-Temperature Performance of Double-Layer Capacitors; 24) Sustainably Sourced, Thermally Resistant, Radiation Hard Biopolymer; 25) Integrated Lens Antennas for Multi-Pixel Receivers; 26) 180-GHz Interferometric Imager; 27) Maturation of Structural Health Management Systems for Solid Rocket Motors; 28) Validating Phasing and Geometry of Large Focal Plane Arrays; 29) Transverse Pupil Shifts for Adaptive Optics Non-Common Path Calibration; 30) Qualification of Fiber Optic Cables for Martian Extreme Temperature Environments; 31) Solid-State Spectral Light Source System; 32) Multiple-Event, Single-Photon Counting Imaging Sensor; 33) Surface Modeling to Support Small-Body Spacecraft Exploration and Proximity Operations; and 34) Achieving Exact and Constant Turnaround Ratio in a DDS-Based Coherent Transponder.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

DOE OSTI2014

TU-F-18A-07: To Explore the More Realistic Energy Responses of the In-Depth Photon Counting Detectors

Purpose: We study the effect of the secondary photon events on modeling the energy response functions of the In-depth photon counting X-ray detectors (PCXD) and the potential impact of the spectral distortion on material decompositions. Methods: Square-shape wafers of three potential PCXD materials were constructed (5-by-20-by-30 mm{sup 3} for Si, 4-by-20-by-5 mm{sup 3} for GaAs and 4-by-20-by-3 mm{sup 3} for CdTe), with pixel size of 5-by-4 mm{sup 2} for Si and 5-by-5 mm{sup 2} for GaAs and CdTe. The depth direction (z-direction) was segmented into 5 layers with exponentially increasing thicknesses of each layer. X-rays from 10keV to 120keV with 20000 photons per keV bin was simulated to characterize the energy response function of each PCXD using Geant4. Secondary photons events were recorded and we omitted the photons exiting the detector. The Energy Response Functions (ERFs) from the Monte Carlo (MC) simulations were compared with those from a semi-ideal model developed earlier. Results: For Si, detection of secondary events in the center detector were minimal due to the long aspect ratio of the detector, which results in the agreement between the theoretical prediction and the MC simulation with and without the secondary photons. For CdTe, the secondary photons captured by the center pixel were important, leading to obvious disagreement between the analytical and the simulated ERF. After correction for secondary events, the two curves were more similar except for the escape peaks which are not correctly portrayed by the semi-ideal model. For GaAs, the behavior is in between Si and CdTe. Conclusion: Given the complexity of the In-Depth PCXD's geometry, the uniform semi-ideal model does not fully characterize the ERF at each layer. Therefore, more realistic models need to be explored for better modeling of the spectral distortion.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Configuration Space Integration for Adsorbate Partition Functions: The Effect of Anharmonicity on the Thermophysical Properties of CO–Pt(111) and CH 3 OH–Cu(111)

A method for computing anharmonic thermophysical properties for adsorbates on metal surfaces has been extended to include libration, or frustrated rotation. Classical phase space integration is used with Monte Carlo sampling of the configuration space to obtain the partition function of CO on Pt(111) and CH 3 OH on Cu(111). A minima-preserving neural network potential energy surrogate is used within the integration routines. Direct state counting using discrete variable representation is used to benchmark the results. We find that the phase space integration approach is in excellent agreement with the direct state counting results. Comparison with standard models such as the harmonic oscillator indicates that anharmonicity contributes significantly to the thermodynamic properties of CH 3 OH on Cu(111). We find that there is also a considerable difference between the harmonic oscillator and phase space integration for CO on Pt(111), although the discrepancy can largely be attributed to the presence of multiple binding sites within the unit cell. We demonstrate that a multisite harmonic oscillator model might be sufficient for CO-Pt(111). A more thorough description of the potential energy surface, which can be achieved with phase space integration, is necessary for weakly bound adsorbates such as CH 3 OH. In conclusion, the thermophysical properties were used to calculate free energies of adsorption on the respective metals, and subsequently the equilibrium constants and Langmuir isotherms in relevant temperature ranges. The results show that the choice of model to obtain partition functions greatly affects the resulting surface coverages in kinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Swift and extensive Omicron outbreak in China after sudden exit from ‘zero-COVID’ policy

In late 2022, China transitioned from a strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy to rapidly abandoning nearly all interventions and data reporting. This raised great concern about the presumably-rapid but unreported spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in a very large population of very low pre-existing immunity. By modeling a combination of case count and survey data, we show that Omicron spread extremely rapidly, at a rate of 0.42/day (95% credibility interval: [0.35, 0.51]/day), translating to an epidemic doubling time of 1.6 days ([1.6, 2.0] days) after the full exit from zero-COVID on Dec. 7, 2022. Consequently, we estimate that the vast majority of the population (97% [95%, 99%], sensitivity analysis lower limit of 90%) was infected during December, with the nation-wide epidemic peaking on Dec. 23. Overall, our results highlight the extremely high transmissibility of the variant and the importance of proper design of intervention exit strategies to avoid large infection waves.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗