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At least 289 records · Page 16

Development of the GEOS-MIT gcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MIT-GCM (General Circulation Model)) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies. Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (approximately 1/8 degrees) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a latitude-longitude-cap-1080 (approximately 1/12 degrees) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

A thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model with coupled electrodynamics

A new simulation model of upper atmospheric dynamics is presented that includes self-consistent electrodynamic interactions between the thermosphere and ionosphere. This model calculates the dynamo effects of thermospheric winds, and uses the resultant electric fields and currents in calculating the neutral and plasma dynamics. A realistic geomagnetic field geometry is used. Sample simulations for solar maximum equinox conditions illustrate two previously predicted effects of the feedback. Near the magnetic equator, the afternoon uplift of the ionosphere by an eastward electric field reduces ion drag on the neutral wind, so that relatively strong eastward winds can occur in the evening. In addition, a vertical electric field is generated by the low-latitude wind, which produces east-west plasma drifts in the same direction as the wind, further reducing the ion drag and resulting in stronger zonal winds.

Richmond, A. D.↗

Improved Boundary Conditions for Coupled Geospace Models: An Application in Modeling Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Abstract Spacecraft surface charging in the inner magnetosphere often occurs in the pre‐midnight to the dawn sector when electron fluxes of tens of keV increase. Inner magnetosphere ring current models can be used to simulate/predict the spacecraft surface charging environment, with their outer boundary conditions specified either based on observations or provided by other models, such as MHD models. In the latter approach, using MHD quantities, the flux spectrum at the outer boundary is commonly assumed to follow a Kappa or Maxwellian distribution function. Such a method however often departs greatly from the realistic spectrum at E < tens of keV, a crucial energy range in the surface charging anomaly. In order to achieve a better representation of the surface charging environment, we propose to combine the MHD‐parameterized flux spectrum with an empirical electron flux model of E < 40 keV to set the electron flux boundary condition. Results indicate that as opposed to the case where the MHD‐parameterized flux distribution is solely used at the model boundary, simulations with the new boundary condition yields a more intense surface charging environment. The integrated electron flux between 10 < E < 50 keV, a measure of the severity of the surface charging environment, is significantly enhanced by 1‐2 orders of magnitude, leading to a much better agreement with Van Allen Probes measurements. This study hence demonstrates a reasonable solution to the setting of outer boundary conditions for inner magnetosphere models and is recommended for coupled geospace circulation models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8 deg) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12 deg) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

The Development of the New GEOS-MITgcm Atmosphere-Ocean Model for Coupled Data Assimilation System

During the last two plus decades, The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) modeling groups have developed, respectively, atmosphere-only and ocean-only global general circulation models. These two models (GEOS and MITgcm) have demonstrated their data assimilation capabilities with the recent releases of the Modern Era Reanalysis for Research Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis and the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, Version 4 (ECCO-v4) ocean (and sea ice) state estimate. Independently, the two modeling groups have also produced global atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations with km-scale grid spacing which proved invaluable for process studies and for the development of satellite and in-situ sampling strategies.Recently, a new effort has been made to couple these two models and to leverage their data-assimilation and high resolution capabilities (i.e., eddy-permitting ocean, cloud-permitting atmosphere). The focus in the model development is put on sub-seasonal to decadal time scales. In this talk, I discuss the new coupled model and present some first coupled simulation results. This will include a high-resolution coupled GEOS-MIT simulation, whereby we have coupled a cubed-sphere-720 (~ 1/8°) configuration of the GEOS atmosphere to a lat-lon-cap-1080 (~ 1/12°) configuration of the MIT ocean. We compare near-surface diagnostics of this fully coupled ocean-atmosphere set-up to equivalent atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations. In the comparisons we focus in particular on the differences in air-sea interactions between sea surface temperature (SST) and wind for the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Strobach, Ehud↗

Effects of Increasing the Category Resolution of the Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in a Coupled Climate Model on Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Mean State

Many modern sea ice models used in global climate models represent the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in sea ice thickness with an ice thickness distribution (ITD), which improves model realism by representing the significant impact of the high spatial heterogeneity of sea ice thickness on thermodynamic and dynamic processes. Most models default to five thickness categories. However, little has been done to explore the effects of the resolution of this distribution (number of categories) on sea-ice feedbacks in a coupled model framework and resulting representation of the sea ice mean state. Here, we explore this using sensitivity experiments in CESM2 with the standard 5 ice thickness categories and 15 ice thickness categories. Increasing the resolution of the ITD in a run with preindustrial climate forcing results in substantially thicker Arctic sea ice year-round. Analyses show that this is a result of the ITD influence on ice strength. With 15 ITD categories, weaker ice occurs for the same average thickness, resulting in a higher fraction of ridged sea ice. In contrast, the higher resolution of thin ice categories results in enhanced heat conduction and bottom growth and leads to only somewhat increased winter Antarctic sea ice volume. The spatial resolution of the ICESat-2 satellite mission provides a new opportunity to compare model outputs with observations of seasonal evolution of the ITD in the Arctic (ICESat-2; 2018–2021). Comparisons highlight significant differences from the ITD modeled with both runs over this period, likely pointing to underlying issues contributing to the representation of average thickness.

Madison M. Smith↗

The Impact of Winds on AMOC in a Fully-Coupled Climate Model

Here we investigate the role of the atmospheric circulation in AMOC by comparing a fully-coupled large ensemble, a forced-ocean simulation, and new experiments using a fully-coupled global climate model where winds above the boundary layer are nudged towards reanalysis. When winds are nudged north of 45°N, agreement with RAPID array observations of AMOC at 26.5°N improves across several metrics. The phasing of interannual variability is well-captured due to the response of the local Ekman component in both wind-nudging and forced-ocean simulations, however the variance remains underestimated. The mean AMOC strength is substantially reduced relative to the fully-coupled model large ensemble, which is biased high, due to the impact of winds on surface buoyancy fluxes over the subpolar gyre. Nudging winds towards observations also reduces the 1979-2016 trend in AMOC, suggesting that improvement in the representation of the high-latitude atmosphere is important for projecting long-term AMOC changes.

AMOC↗

The effect of limiting aerodynamic and structural coupling in models of mistuned bladed disk vibration

A model has been developed for studying the effect of mistuning on bladed disk vibration which has the unique feature that the extent of aerodynamic and structural interaction which it simulates can be readily varied from full coupling of all blades on the disk to coupling of each blade with only its nearest neighbors. Simulations utilizing the resulting algorithm show that limited coupling models may be used to predict the statistical distribution of blade amplitudes that characterizes the mistuning effect, which in turn determines stage durability. This approach is used to study the effect of changing various system parameters on amplitude scatter. Gas density, the number of blades on the disk, disk stiffness, and the engine order of the excitation are considered. The results are used to draw some conclusions about how to improve laboratory tests and component design.

Basu, P.↗

Validation of a reduced-order jet model for subsonic and underexpanded hydrogen jets

Much effort has been made to model hydrogen releases from leaks during potential failures of hydrogen storage systems. A reduced-order jet model can be used to quickly characterize these flows, with low computational cost. Notional nozzle models are often used to avoid modeling the complex shock structures produced by the underexpanded jets by determining an “effective” source to produce the observed downstream trends. In our work, the mean hydrogen concentration fields were measured in a series of subsonic and underexpanded jets using a planar laser Rayleigh scattering system. Furthermore, we compared the experimental data to a reduced order jet model for subsonic flows and a notional nozzle model coupled to the jet model for underexpanded jets. The values of some key model parameters were determined by comparisons with the experimental data. Finally, the coupled model was also validated against hydrogen concentrations measurements for 100 and 200 bar hydrogen jets with the predictions agreeing well with data in the literature.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Coupled SAM/Griffin Model of a Reference Fluoride-Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor for Multi-Physics Simulations

A multi-physics coupled simulation model of a reference pebble bed fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (PB-FHR) has been developed with SAM and Griffin computer codes for transient safety analysis. The reference problem of a prototypical reactor design serves as the foundation for the U.S. NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) to verify the adequacy of computer codes and evaluation models for specific reactor types. In this work, the previously developed SAM model for PB-FHR primary loop has been updated for the coupled simulation. The updated SAM PB-FHR model includes a 2-D axial symmetric core region and external core components in 0-D/1-D. In addition to the primary loop, a detailed model of the RCCS (reactor cavity cooling system) is added. The 2-D and 1-D domains are tightly coupled using the single-solve approach developed in SAM. In the pebble bed region, the SAM multiscale explicit pebble model is applied to calculate the pebble and TRISO fuel kernel temperatures. The Griffin model used in this work is based on a model developed at Idaho National Laboratory in collaboration with the U.S. NRC. The Griffin neutronics model and SAM thermal hydraulics model is coupled with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (CRAB or alternately BlueCRAB) application. Both steady-state and transient scenarios are simulated to demonstrate the model's suitability for multi-physics simulations of PB-FHR transients.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Orbifolds and Exact Solutions of Strongly-Coupled Matrix Models

Here we find an exact solution to strongly-coupled matrix models with a single-trace monomial potential. Our solution yields closed form expressions for the partition function as well as averages of Schur functions. The results are fully factorized into a product of terms linear in the rank of the matrix and the parameters of the model. We extend our formulas to include both logarthmic and finite-difference deformations, thereby generalizing the celebrated Selberg and Kadell integrals. We conjecture a formula for correlators of two Schur functions in these models, and explain how our results follow from a general orbifold-like procedure that can be applied to any one-matrix model with a single-trace potential.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bifurcations in the Time-Delayed Kuramoto Model of Coupled Oscillators: Exact Results

In the context of the Kuramoto model of coupled oscillators with distributed natural frequencies interacting through a time-delayed mean-field, we derive as a function of the delay exact results for the stability boundary between the incoherent and the synchronized state and the nature in which the latter bifurcates from the former at the critical point. Our results are based on an unstable manifold expansion in the vicinity of the bifurcation, which we apply to both the kinetic equation for the single-oscillator distribution function in the case of a generic frequency distribution and the corresponding Ott–Antonsen (OA)-reduced dynamics in the special case of a Lorentzian distribution. Besides elucidating the effects of delay on the nature of bifurcation, we show that the approach due to Ott and Antonsen, although an ansatz, gives an amplitude dynamics of the unstable modes close to the bifurcation that remarkably coincides with the one derived from the kinetic equation. Further more, quite interestingly and remarkably, we show that close to the bifurcation, the unstable manifold derived from the kinetic equation has the same form as the OA manifold, implying thereby that the OA-ansatz form follows also as a result of the unstable manifold expansion. In conclusion, we illustrate our results by showing how delay can affect dramatically the bifurcation of a bimodal distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Future Sea Level Change Under CMIP5 and CMIP6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Antarctica↗

THE ROLE OF CORE MASS IN CONTROLLING EVAPORATION: THE KEPLER RADIUS DISTRIBUTION AND THE KEPLER-36 DENSITY DICHOTOMY

We use models of coupled thermal evolution and photo-evaporative mass loss to understand the formation and evolution of the Kepler-36 system. We show that the large contrast in mean planetary density observed by Carter et al. can be explained as a natural consequence of photo-evaporation from planets that formed with similar initial compositions. However, rather than being due to differences in XUV irradiation between the planets, we find that this contrast is due to the difference in the masses of the planets' rock/iron cores and the impact that this has on mass-loss evolution. We explore in detail how our coupled models depend on irradiation, mass, age, composition, and the efficiency of mass loss. Based on fits to large numbers of coupled evolution and mass-loss runs, we provide analytic fits to understand threshold XUV fluxes for significant atmospheric loss, as a function of core mass and mass-loss efficiency. Finally we discuss these results in the context of recent studies of the radius distribution of Kepler candidates. Using our parameter study, we make testable predictions for the frequency of sub-Neptune-sized planets. We show that 1.8-4.0 R{sub ⊕} planets should become significantly less common on orbits within 10 days and discuss the possibility of a narrow 'occurrence valley' in the radius-flux distribution. Moreover, we describe how photo-evaporation provides a natural explanation for the recent observations of Ciardi et al. that inner planets are preferentially smaller within the systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

One-Dimensional Coupled Ecosystem-Carbon Flux Model for the Simulation of Biogeochemical Parameters at Ocean Weather Station P

In this Technical Publication, we describe the model functionality and analyze its application to the seasonal and interannual variations of phytoplankton, nutrients, pCO2 and CO2 concentrations in the eastern subarctic Pacific at Ocean Weather Station P (OWSP, 50 deg. N 145 deg. W). We use a verified one-dimensional ecosystem model, coupled with newly incorporated carbon flux and carbon chemistry components, to simulate 22 years (1958-1980) of pCO2 and CO2 variability at Ocean Weather Station P (OWS P). This relatively long period of simulation verifies and extends the findings of previous studies using an explicit approach for the biological component and realistic coupling with the carbon flux dynamics. The slow currents and the horizontally homogeneous ocean in the subarctic Pacific make OWS P one of the best available candidates for modeling the chemistry of the upper ocean in one dimension. The chlorophyll and ocean currents composite for 1998 illustrates this premise. The chlorophyll concentration map was derived from SeaWiFS data and the currents are from an OGCM simulation (from R. Murtugudde).

Signorini, S.↗

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗