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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Joint Modeling of Wind Speed and Wind Direction Through a Conditional Approach

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. In this work, we develop a conditional approach to model these two variables, where the joint distribution is decomposed into the product of the marginal distribution of wind direction and the conditional distribution of wind speed given wind direction. To accommodate the circular nature of wind direction, a von Mises mixture model is used; the conditional wind speed distribution is modeled as a directional dependent Weibull distribution via a two-stage estimation procedure, consisting of a directional binned Weibull parameter estimation, followed by a harmonic regression to estimate the dependence of the Weibull parameters on wind direction. A Monte Carlo simulation study indicates that our method outperforms two other approaches in estimation efficiency: one that utilizes periodic spline quantile regression and another that generates data from the commonly used Abe-Ley distribution for cylindrical data. We illustrate our method by using the output from a regional climate model to investigate how the joint distribution of wind speed and direction may change under some future climate scenarios. Our method indicates significant changes in the variation of wind speed with respect to some directions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multiscale model to understand the interface chemistry, contacts, and dynamics during lithium stripping

A reversible Li-metal electrode, paired with a solid electrolyte, is critical for attaining higher energy density and safer batteries beyond the current lithium-ion cells. A stable stripping process may be even harder to attain as the stripping process will remove Li-atoms from the surface, and naturally reduce surface contact area, if not self-corrected by other mechanisms, such as diffusion and plastic deformation under an applied external stack pressure. Here, we capture these mechanisms occurring at multiple length- and time- scales, i.e., interface interactions, vacancy hopping, and plastic deformation, by integrating density functional theory (DFT) simulations, kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC), and continuum finite element method (FEM). By assuming the self-affine nature of multiscale contacts, we predict the steady-state contact area as a function of stripping current density, interface wettability, and stack pressure. We further estimate the exponential increase of overpotential due to contact area loss to maintain the same stripping current density. We demonstrate that a lithiophilic interface requires less stack pressure to reach the same steady-state contact area fraction than a lithiophobic interface. A “tolerable steady-state” contact area loss for maintaining stable stripping is estimated at 20 %, corresponding to a 10 % increase in overpotential. To constrain contact loss within the tolerance, the required stack pressure is 0.1, 0.5, and 2 times the yield strength of lithium metal for three distinct interfaces, lithiophilic Li/lithium oxide(Li2O), Li/lithium lanthanum zirconium oxide(LLZO), and lithiophoblic Li/lithium fluoride(LiF), respectively. The modeling results agree with experiments on the impact of the stack pressure quantitatively, while the discrepancy in stripping rate sensitivity is attributed to the simplifying interface interaction in our simulations. Overall, this multiscale simulation framework demonstrates the importance of electrochemical-mechanical coupling in understanding the dynamics of the Li/SE interface during stripping.

Feng, Min↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active space selection with self-healing diffusion Monte Carlo algorithms for periodic solids

Multideterminant Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) displays improved accuracy over single determinant DMC. Self-Healing Diffusion Monte Carlo (SHDMC) is a DMC based method that iteratively improves a multideterminant trial wavefunction. Although configuration interaction or complete active space (CAS) methods are very accurate and computationally feasible for many systems, they are not optimal for application to solids. SHDMC is accurate and designed for application to solids, so developing SHDMC based active space selection algorithms is a worthy endeavor. Here, we present and compare active space selection algorithms that are designed for use in conjunction with SHDMC, without relying on external approaches. For benchmarking, we calculated the ground state energy of a small unit cell of graphene and compared the results with a complete basis set extrapolated selected CI and a reference SHDMC trajectory. We found that systematically expanding the active space using an “auto-branching” algorithm optimally balances accuracy with computational practicality. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that demonstrates completely self-contained DMC-based active space selection algorithms that do not depend on external methods for determinant selection.

Spanedda, Nicole [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

ASCR Workshop Position Paper: Challenges and Opportunities in High Energy Physics

High energy particle physics and cosmology concern themselves with estimating fundamental parameters of nature, such as the masses and interactions of fundamental particles like the Higgs boson and the rate of expansion of the universe. In doing so, they analyze exabyte-scale datasets, some of the largest in all of science, and face many challenges in subsequent data analysis. These challenges are shared between the two disciplines, but we focus on particle physics to highlight one specific domain. In particle physics, the standard method for estimating parameters involves performing Monte Carlo (MC) integration as a function of both parameters of interest and nuisance parameters using an expensive simulator, counting the number of observed collision events (i.i.d. samples) from an experiment in the corresponding integration domains, and forming a Poisson likelihood function. This likelihood function is then used in a Frequentist manner to construct a maximum likelihood point estimate (MLE) and confidence set for the parameters. To sufficiently populate the high-dimensional integration domains, simulators consume billions of CPU-hours annually and produce hundreds of petabytes of intermediate output data. Several techniques have been developed to: optimize definitions of the integration domains so as to be maximally sensitive to a particular subset of parameters, efficiently estimate the integrals, and build robust surrogate models by interpolating between integral evaluations at different parameter points. One can view this whole endeavor as classical Simulation-Based Inference (SBI).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural refinement of sample weights

Monte Carlo simulations are an essential tool in particle physics data analysis. Events are typically generated alongside weights that redistribute the cross section of the simulated process across the phase space. These weights can be negative, and several post hoc methods have been developed to eliminate or mitigate the negative values. All of these methods share the common strategy of approximating the average weight as a function of phase space. We introduce an alternative approach, which, instead of reweighting to the average, refines the initial weights with a scaling transformation, utilizing a phase space-dependent factor. Since this new refinement method does not need to model the full weight distribution, it can be more accurate. High-dimensional and unbinned phase space is processed using neural networks for the refinement method. In addition to the refinement method, we introduce a new resampling protocol, which can be used in conjunction with any weight transformation to not only preserve the average weight but also the statistical uncertainties of the initial distribution. Using both realistic and synthetic examples, we show that the new neural refinement method is able to match or exceed the accuracy of similar weight transformations and that the new resampling protocol is simpler in implementation than previous methods while exhibiting equivalent statistical properties.

Artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bootstrap-determined p values in lattice QCD

We present a general method to determine the probability that stochastic Monte Carlo data, in particular those generated in a lattice QCD calculation, would have been obtained were that data drawn from the distribution predicted by a given theoretical hypothesis. Such a probability, or p -value, is often used as an important heuristic measure of the validity of that hypothesis. The proposed method offers the benefit that it remains usable in cases where the standard Hotelling T 2 methods based on the conventional χ 2 statistic do not apply, such as for uncorrelated fits. Specifically, we analyze q 2 , defined as the correlated χ 2 statistic obtained using an arbitrary covariance matrix estimator, and show how to use the bootstrap as a data-driven method to determine the expected distribution of q 2 for a given hypothesis with minimal assumptions. This distribution can then be used to determine the p -value for a fit to the data. We also describe a bootstrap approach for quantifying the impact upon this p -value of estimating population parameters from a single ensemble of N samples. The overall method is accurate up to a 1 / N bias which we do not attempt to quantify. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monte Carlo Explicitly Correlated Second-Order Many-Body Green’s Function Calculations of Semiconductor Band Gaps

A systematically converging series of ab initio, post-density-functional, size-consistent, electron-correlated approximations is desired for predictive computing of felectronic band structures of insulating, semiconducting, and metallic solids. A series that meets all of these desiderata (except the applicability to metals) is ab initio many-body Green's function theory based on Gaussian-type-orbital (GTO) basis sets. Here, its leading-order approximation, the second-order Green's function (GF2) method in the diagonal and frequency-independent approximations with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set, is applied to the fundamental band gaps of three semiconductors (diamond, silicon, and silicon carbide in the zincblende structure) using cluster models. Corrections are made to the basis-set-incompleteness errors by the explicit-correlation (F12) ansatz (GF2-F12) for the valence band edges. The crystals are modeled as surface-passivated clusters of increasing sizes, whose wave functions are expanded by up to 2709 GTO basis functions. Immense computational costs of these calculations are overcome by the highly scalable stochastic algorithm of the Monte Carlo GF2-F12 method, whose operation cost per state increases only as a cubic power of system size, which has a tiny memory footprint and easily achieves near-perfect parallel efficiency on thousands of CPUs or on hundreds of GPUs. The correlated, F12-corrected highest-occupied and lowest-unoccupied molecular-orbital energy (HOMO-LUMO) gap is 5.78 ± 0.07 eV for C 87 H 76 as compared with the experimental value of the fundamental (indirect) band gap of bulk diamond at 5.48 eV. The correlated, F12-corrected HOMO-LUMO gaps for Si 75 H 76 and Si 32 C 43 H 76 are 2.56 ± 0.15 eV and 3.50 ± 0.12 eV, respectively, which are expected to decrease further with increasing cluster sizes. As a result, the experimental fundamental (indirect) band gaps of bulk silicon and silicon carbide are 1.17 eV and 2.42 eV, respectively.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward shell model interactions with credible uncertainties

Background: The nuclear shell model is a powerful framework for predicting nuclear structure observables, but relies on interaction matrix elements fit to experimental data as its inputs. Extending the shell model's applicability, particularly toward dripline nuclei, requires efficient fitting methods and credible uncertainty quantification. Traditional approaches face computational challenges and may underestimate uncertainties. Purpose: We develop and test a framework combining eigenvector continuation and Markov chain Monte Carlo to efficiently fit shell model interaction matrix elements and quantify their uncertainties. Methods: Eigenvector continuation is used to emulate shell model calculations, reducing computational costs. The emulator enables Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling to optimize interaction matrix elements and rigorously assess parametric uncertainties. Here, the framework is benchmarked using the USDB interaction in the 𝑠⁢𝑑 shell. Results: The emulator reproduces the USDB interaction with negligible error, validating its use in shell model fitting applications. However, we find that to obtain credible predictive intervals, the model defect of the shell model itself, rather than experimental or emulator error, must be taken into account in order to obtain credible uncertainties. Conclusions: The proposed framework provides an efficient and rigorous approach for fitting shell model interactions and quantifying uncertainties. Further, the normality assumption used in the past appears sufficient to describe the distribution of interaction matrix elements. However, it is crucial to account for model correlations to avoid underestimating uncertainties.

Nuclear forces↗
DOE OSTI2025

X-Ray Spectra from General Relativistic Radiation Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Thin Disks

We compare X-ray emission from several general relativistic, multifrequency, radiation magnetohydrodynamic simulations of thin black hole accretion disks with different accretion rates and spins. The simulations were performed using the M1 closure scheme, resolved with 12 frequency (energy) bins logarithmically spaced from 5 × 10 −3 to 5 × 10 3 ​​​ keV. We apply a general relativistic Monte Carlo transport code to postprocess the simulation data with greater fidelity in frequency resolution and Compton scattering treatment. Despite the relatively few energy bins and Kompaneets approximation to Compton scattering utilized in the M1 method, we find generally good agreement between the methods. Both produce prominent thermal profiles with peaks around 2–2.5 keV, where agreement is particularly strong and representative of the soft state. Both also find weaker (lower-luminosity) thermally sourced emission extending out to 100 keV due to the hotter innermost regions of the disks. Inverse Compton scattering becomes increasingly effective at hardening spectral outputs with increasing black hole spin, and becomes the dominant mechanism for photons that escape with energies between 10 to several hundred keV. At very high rates of spin, the radiation flux in this upscattered component becomes comparable to the thermal flux, a phenomenon typically associated with intermediate states. Beyond 10 4 keV, we observe faint, free–free emission from hot, optically thin coronal regions developing near the horizon, common to both spinning and nonspinning black holes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving statistical precision in Monte Carlo samples with negative weights via reweighting and uncertainty quantification

High statistical precision is critical for Monte Carlo (MC) samples in high energy physics and is degraded by negatively weighted events. This paper investigates a procedure to learn the relationship between the negative and positive weight distributions of any sample, allowing the reduction of statistical uncertainty by reweighting kinematically equivalent events with the same sign. A robust uncertainty quantification method is required for the practical application of such method. Two methods for the estimation of the reweighting uncertainty are developed: one at the event and another one at the final observable level. The latter method is strongly favored. The gains in statistical precision are then quantified. The method is demonstrated on Sherpa vector boson plus jets samples when using all generated events and when restricted to the signal region of a mock analysis. It is demonstrated to significantly reduce stochastic behavior in sparse MC samples while decreasing the overall uncertainty with a sufficiently well-known reweighting function.

Monte Carlo methods↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Monte Carlo calculations of electron scattering from 12 C in the short-time approximation

The short-time approximation is a method introduced to evaluate electroweak nuclear response for systems with A ≥ 12, extending the reach of first-principle many-body quantum Monte Carlo calculations. Using realistic two- and three-body nuclear interactions and consistent one- and two-body electromagnetic currents, we calculate longitudinal and transverse response densities and response functions of 12 C. Here, we compare the resulting cross sections with experimental data for electron-nucleus scattering, finding good agreement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ab initio calculation of atomic solid hydrogen phases based on Gutzwiller many-body wave functions

We apply two ab initio many-body methods based on Gutzwiller wave functions, i.e., correlation matrix renormalization theory (CMRT) and Gutzwiller conjugate gradient minimization (GCGM), to the study of crystalline phases of atomic hydrogen. Both methods avoid empirical Hubbard U parameters and are free from double-counting issues. CMRT employs a Gutzwiller-type approximation that enables efficient calculations, while GCGM goes beyond this approximation to achieve higher accuracy at higher computational cost. By benchmarking against available quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) results, we demonstrate that while both methods are more accurate than the widely used density-functional theory, GCGM systematically captures additional correlation energy missing in CMRT, leading to significantly improved total energy predictions. We also show that by including the correlation energy Ec from local density approximation in the CMRT calculation, CMRT + E c produces energy in better agreement with the QMC results in these hydrogen lattice systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagation of Noise Uncertainty Through Virtual Strain Gauge Formulations for 2D Digital Image Correlation

The effect of displacement uncertainty is examined on 2-dimensional strain, calculated using linear surfaces fitted to the displacement field. A classical engineering error propagation method is used to calculate uncertainty in Green-Lagrangian strain calculations. The derived uncertainty is compared to a Monte Carlo simulation and discrepancies under 2% are seen between these two methods. The effect of virtual strain gauge size, displacement uncertainty, and boundaries on the region of interest on the strain uncertainty are considered. Here, an exponential decay relationship is observed between strain uncertainty and virtual strain gauge size, while a linear relationship is seen between strain and displacement uncertainty. For boundaries in the region of interest, strain uncertainty is affected by the reduced number of points available to perform the regression.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining Hamiltonians from chiral effective field theory with neutron-star data

Multi-messenger observations of neutron stars (NSs) and their mergers have placed strong constraints on the dense-matter equation of state (EOS). The EOS, in turn, depends on microscopic nuclear interactions that are described by nuclear Hamiltonians. These Hamiltonians are commonly derived within chiral effective field theory (EFT). Ideally, multi-messenger observations of NSs could be used to directly inform our understanding of EFT interactions, but such a direct inference necessitates millions of model evaluations. This is computationally prohibitive because each evaluation requires us to calculate the EOS from a Hamiltonian by solving the quantum many-body problem with methods such as auxiliary-field diffusion Monte Carlo (AFDMC), which provides very accurate and precise solutions but at a significant computational cost. Additionally, we need to solve the stellar structure equations for each EOS which further slows down each model evaluation by a few seconds. In this work, we combine emulators for AFDMC calculations of neutron matter, built using parametric matrix models, and for the stellar structure equations, built using multilayer perceptron neural networks, with the PyCBC data-analysis framework to enable a direct inference of coupling constants in an EFT Hamiltonian using multi-messenger observations of NSs. We find that astrophysical data can provide informative constraints on two-nucleon couplings despite the high densities probed in NS interiors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Are better combinations of DERs more profitable?: Combinatorial optimization for aggregation of DERs in wholesale electricity markets

Recently, regulatory changes in various countries have enabled the participation of small-scale distributed energy resources (DERs) aggregated in virtual power plants (VPPs) in wholesale electricity markets. The inherent uncertainty and variability of resources comprising VPPs can lead to imbalances between forecasted and metered outputs, potentially resulting in the deficient settlement of generation under imbalance settlement rules. To address this challenge, it is essential to manage variability in the planning phase and uncertainty in the operation phase. Most current research focuses on managing forecasting errors in the operational phase, with insufficient attention given to the planning phase. Here, to bridge this gap, this paper proposes an optimal combination strategy for DERs to maximize the market participation revenue of VPPs by proactively managing variability in the planning phase. To estimate the expected revenue, we conducted analyses for homogeneous and heterogeneous DERs using Monte Carlo simulations and genetic algorithms. Remarkably, the proposed method demonstrated approximately 8 % higher revenue compared to the neighboring group case when considering diversity in DER set configuration with equal proportions of photovoltaics and wind.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Electronic Structure Methods for Predicting the Hydrogenation Energies of Candidate Molecules for Hydrogen Storage

The development of novel energy materials and fuels is required to expand current available energy sources. Aiming to reach this goal, there is growing interest in using molecular hydrogen as an energy carrier due to its abundance and high energy density. Liquid organic hydrogen carriers (LOHCs) are a promising route to the large-scale storage and transport of hydrogen for use in the energy economy. The search for thermodynamically viable LOHC molecules for real world use has led to a set of constraints on the dehydrogenation enthalpy and the minimum gravimetric hydrogen capacity. These constraints allow one to formulate the search for an ideal LOHC candidate molecule as an optimization problem well suited to the strengths of machine learning and artificial intelligence computational approaches. A critical barrier to a large-scale, high-throughput screening of LOHC candidate molecules is the lack of reliable training data. Computational electronic structure methods including density functional theory, coupled cluster approximations, and diffusion Monte Carlo can be used to provide training data where experimental data are either unreliable or do not exist. In this work, we use these methods to calculate the dehydrogenation energies and enthalpies of candidate LOHC molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

S U ( 2 ) principal chiral model with tensor renormalization group on a cubic lattice

We study the continuous phase transition and thermodynamic observables in the three-dimensional Euclidean S U ( 2 ) principal chiral field model with the triad tensor renormalization group and the anisotropic tensor renormalization group methods. Using these methods, we find results that are consistent with previous Monte Carlo estimates and the predicted renormalization group scaling of the magnetization close to criticality. These results bring us one step closer to studying finite-density quantum chromodynamics in four dimensions using tensor network methods. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗