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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16

Python Library for Monte Carlo Simulations with Ab Initio and Machine-Learned Interatomic Potentials

There is a growing need in the simulation community for software that provides a transparent, reproducible, usable, and extensible (TRUE) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation framework employing energies from ab initio methods and machine-learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs). We introduce a Python library (ASE-MC) that adds Monte Carlo functionality to the Atomic Simulation Environment (ASE) package. Now, we can combine the powerful tools used to build systems and perform ab initio and MLIP in ASE with MC simulation algorithms to sample the configurational space with a concise Python script. After presenting the design philosophy, we demonstrate the flexibility of our approach using selected examples. These example simulations include liquid water described with a message-passing MLIP in the canonical and isothermal–isobaric ensembles, sampling the characteristic dihedral angle of biphenyl and comparing an MLIP to first-principles calculations, and a grand canonical Monte Carlo simulation of ammonia adsorption on Pt(111). These examples showcase the main features of the software, which include flexibility in the choice of ab initio or MLIP engine, ab initio or MLIP grand canonical MC with cavity bias insertions and deletions, the ability to add custom MC moves to the move set, and how users can condense complex MC workflows into a single Python script. Finally, this library serves as a framework for reproducible Monte Carlo simulations, facilitating easy reproduction of the work and application to new systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Derivation of Effective Properties Based on Porous Scale Simulations Using Filtering Techniques

This study presents a method for derivation of effective properties at the interface and in-depth of porous materials. The method defines a Representative Elementary Volume (REV) and applies filtering techniques to computer effective properties such as porosity and flow quantities, such as velocity and pressure. The script, developed to process the data was tested on the VTK type files that contain the mesh information and the flow solution. The method allows to choose between two types of filters, such as cellular and top-hat and define the size of the REV and number of samples along the domain. Extraction of the REV from the domain is performed to exact boundaries requested for the user. This is done using a triangulation technique and cutting through the cells to comply to the requested boundaries of the volume. The method can be applied to both structured and unstructured meshes. Filtering the material porosity and flow quantities involves integration of the numerical data. The algorithm provides three integration methods, such as Riemann sum, Monte Carlo and Quadrature rule to perform the integration. The Monte-Carlo technique permits the use of either uniform or linearly spaced distribution of points. The Quadrature rule is currently applicable to tetrahedral element types. The Monte Carlo and Quadrature rule methods require interpolation of the flow quantities at the sample points. For interpolation, two methods were tested and are readily available, Gaussian interpolation and re-sampling. It has been shown that re-sampling method has better consistency and acceptable accuracy in interpolation of the data. The algorithm was written in Python language and uses a number of modules. The major module besides numpy is PyVista. It is used to process the computational domain, clip the REV and interpolate the data. Quadrature rule integration was performed using a quadpy module. ParaView software was used externally to convert the flow solution to the VTK (or more specifically VTU) format. Integration of ParaView in the same environment with PyVista encountered problems and could not be implemented in this work. The developed algorithm is expected to be applicable to unstructured meshes and more complex porous structures as soon as the data can be passed in VTK type format. With the report is provided Python script for filtering the solution and a Matlab script for simple generation and processing of 2-D and 3-D porous channel geometries. The two scripts don't communicate.

Alexsander Zibitsker↗

Improved importance sampling technique for efficient simulation of digital communication systems

A new, improved importance sampling (IIS) approach to simulation is considered. Some basic concepts of IS are introduced, and detailed evolutions of simulation estimation variances for Monte Carlo (MC) and IS simulations are given. The general results obtained from these evolutions are applied to the specific previously known conventional importance sampling (CIS) technique and the new IIS technique. The derivation for a linear system with no signal random memory is considered in some detail. For the CIS technique, the optimum input scaling parameter is found, while for the IIS technique, the optimum translation parameter is found. The results are generalized to a linear system with memory and signals. Specific numerical and simulation results are given which show the advantages of CIS over MC and IIS over CIS for simulations of digital communications systems.

Lu, Dingqing↗

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗

Radon emanation rate measurements using liquid scintillation counting

This article describes a radon emanation measurement technique using liquid scintillator counting. A model for radon loading and transport is described, along with its calibration. Detector background and blank have been studied and quantified. The Minimal detectable activity has been determined for the counting setup using a toy Monte Carlo simulation. Here, the measurement technique is validated using a butyl rubber sample previously used for cross-calibration between different radon counting facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Probing Non-Standard Interactions in NOvA with Bayesian MCMC Methods

We present a search for non-standard neutrino interactions (NSI) using NOvA's joint $\nu_e$ appearance and $\nu_\mu$ disappearance samples in both neutrino and antineutrino beam modes. A Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is used to map the posterior distribution over NSI parameters $\varepsilon_{e\mu}$, $\varepsilon_{e\tau}$, and $\varepsilon_{\mu\tau}$, simultaneously with standard oscillation parameters. We investigate the effect of prior choice for the complex NSI parameters and present projected sensitivity to off-diagonal NSI.

Huang, Xiaoyan [Mississippi U.]↗

MORSE Monte Carlo shielding calculations for the zirconium hydride reference reactor

Verification of DOT-SPACETRAN transport calculations of a lithium hydride and tungsten shield for a SNAP reactor was performed using the MORSE (Monte Carlo) code. Transport of both neutrons and gamma rays was considered. Importance sampling was utilized in the MORSE calculations. Several quantities internal to the shield, as well as dose at several points outside of the configuration, were in satisfactory agreement with the DOT calculations of the same.

Burgart, C. E.↗

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 3

The requirements and processing logic for the LACIE Error Model program (LEM) are described. This program is an integral part of the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) system. LEM is that portion of the LPP (LACIE Performance Predictor) which simulates the sample segment classification, strata yield estimation, and production aggregation. LEM controls repetitive Monte Carlo trials based on input error distributions to obtain statistical estimates of the wheat area, yield, and production at different levels of aggregation. LEM interfaces with the rest of the LPP through a set of data files.

Source record↗

Evaluation of concepts and methods for extraction of flow parameters from laser transit anemometry data

A Monte-Carlo type simulation system was developed to test concepts and associated algorithms proposed by Mayo and Smart (1984) for the extraction of two-dimensional flow parameters from laser transit anemometry data sets. The Monte-Carlo LTA simulation program models a flow field as well as the sample volume geometry of the LTA system, thereby permitting simulation of two-dimensional data acquisition in a three-dimensional flow field. The results of these tests on the proposed processing concepts suggest that the instrument is capable of measuring mean velocities to less than +0.15 percent error and flow angles to less then +0.3 percent for turbulence intensities of up to 15.0 percent.

Humphreys, W. M., Jr.↗

Entry Dispersion Analysis for the Genesis Sample Return Capsule

Genesis will be the first mission to return samples from beyond the Earth-Moon system. The spacecraft will be inserted into a halo orbit about the L1 (Sun- Earth) libration point where it will remain for two years collecting solar wind particles. Upon Earth return, the sample return capsule, which is passively controlled, will descend under parachute to Utah. The present study describes the analysis of the entry, descent, and landing scenario of the returning sample capsule. The robustness of the entry sequence is assessed through a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis where the impact of off-nominal conditions is ascertained. The dispersion results indicate that the capsule attitude excursions near peak heating and drogue chute deployment are within Genesis mission limits. Additionally, the size of the resulting 3-sigma landing ellipse is 47.8 km in downrange by 15.2 km in crossrange, which is within the Utah Test and Training Range boundaries.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Entry Dispersion Analysis for the Genesis Sample Return Capsule

Genesis will be the first mission to return samples from beyond the Earth-Moon system. The spacecraft will be inserted into a halo orbit about the L1 (Sun-Earth) libration point where it will remain for two years collecting solar wind particles. Upon Earth return, the sample return capsule, which is passively controlled, will descend under parachute to Utah. The present study describes the analysis of the entry, descent, and landing scenario of the returning sample capsule. The robustness of the entry sequence is assessed through a Monte Carlo dispersion analysis where the impact of off-nominal conditions is ascertained. The dispersion results indicate that the capsule attitude excursions near peak heating and drogue chute deployment are within Genesis mission limits. Additionally, the size of the resulting 3-sigma landing ellipse is 47.8 km in downrange by 15.2 km in crossrange, which is within the Utah Test and Training Range boundaries.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

Recurrence Rate and Magma Effusion Rate for the Latest Volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars

Magmatism and volcanism have evolved the Martian lithosphere, surface, and climate throughout the history of Mars. Constraining the rates of magma generation and timing of volcanism on the surface clarifies the ways in which magma and volcanic activity have shaped these Martian systems. The ages of lava flows on other planets are often estimated using impact crater counts, assuming that the number and size-distribution of impact craters per unit area reflect the time the lava flow has been on the surface and exposed to potential impacts. Here we show that impact crater age model uncertainty is reduced by adding stratigraphic information observed at locations where neighboring lavas abut each other, and demonstrate the significance of this reduction in age uncertainty for understanding the history of a volcanic field comprising 29 vents in the 110-kilometer-diameter caldera of Arsia Mons, Mars. Each vent within this caldera produced lava flows several to tens of kilometers in length; these vents are likely among the youngest on Mars, since no impact craters in their lava flows are larger than 1 kilometer in diameter. First, we modeled the age of each vent with impact crater counts performed on their corresponding lava flows and found very large age uncertainties for the ages of individual vents, often spanning the estimated age for the entire volcanic field. The age model derived from impact crater counts alone is broad and unimodal, with estimated peak activity in the field around 130Ma (megaannum, 1 million years). Next we applied our volcano event age model (VEAM), which uses a directed graph of stratigraphic relationships and random sampling of the impact crater age determinations to create alternative age models. Monte Carlo simulation was used to create 10,000 possible vent age sets. The recurrence rate of volcanism is calculated for each possible age set, and these rates are combined to calculate the median recurrence rate of all simulations. Applying this approach to the 29 volcanic vents, volcanism likely began around 200-300Ma then first peaked around 150Ma, with an average production rate of 0.4 vents per Myr (million years). The recurrence rate estimated including stratigraphic data is distinctly bimodal, with a second, lower peak in activity around 100Ma. Volcanism then waned until the final vents were produced 10-90Ma. Based on this model, volume flux is also bimodal, reached a peak rate of 1-8 cubic kilometers per million years by 150Ma and remained above half this rate until about 90Ma, after which the volume flux diminished greatly. The onset of effusive volcanism from 200-150Ma might be due to a transition of volcanic style away from explosive volcanism that emplaced tephra on the western flank of Arsia Mons, while the waning of volcanism after the 150Ma peak might represent a larger-scale diminishing of volcanic activity at Arsia Mons related to the emplacement of flank apron lavas.

Richardson, Jacob A.↗

Constraining Systematics for Future Sterile Neutrino Analysis at NOvA Experiment

In this article, we report an approach used to constrain the impact of cross-section systematic parameters in the future sterile neutrino analysis at the NOvA experiment. NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino experiment built to investigate the intricate properties of neutrinos, with the principal emphasis on active three-flavor neutrino mixing phenomena. Besides that, NOvA also explores exotic oscillations, including sterile neutrino search. Uncertainties on the neutrino flux, cross-section, and detector systematic parameters significantly contribute, complicating the disentanglement of genuine physics events from background noise. We present the impact of systematic reduction via near detector neutral current sample splitting and its implications on oscillation parameters, leveraging results primarily from Monte Carlo simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Computational Bayesian Methods Applied to Complex Problems in Bio and Astro Statistics

In this dissertation we apply computational Bayesian methods to three distinct problems. In the first chapter, we address the issue of unrealistic covariance matrices used to estimate collision probabilities. We model covariance matrices with a Bayesian Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, which we fit with Gibbs sampling. In the second chapter, we are interested in determining the sample sizes necessary to achieve a particular interval width and establish non-inferiority in the analysis of prevalences using two fallible tests. To this end, we use a third order asymptotic approximation. In the third chapter, we wish to synthesize evidence across multiple domains in measurements taken longitudinally across time, featuring a substantial amount of structurally missing data, and fit the model with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in a simulation to analyze how estimates of a parameter of interest change across sample sizes.

Elrod, Chris↗

A numerical algorithm to propagate navigation error covariance matrices associated with generalized strapdown inertial measurement units

The design and operation of a Strapdown Navigation Analysis Program (SNAP) developed to perform covariance analysis on spacecraft inertial-measurement-unit (IMU) navigation errors are described and demonstrated. Consideration is given to the IMU modeling subroutine (with user-specified sensor characteristics), the data input procedures, state updates and the simulation of instrument failures, the determination of the nominal trajectory, the mapping-matrix and Monte Carlo covariance-matrix propagation methods, and aided-navigation simulation. Numerical results are presented in tables for sample applications involving (1) the Galileo/IUS spacecraft from its deployment from the Space Shuttle to a point 10 to the 8th ft from the center of the earth and (2) the TDRS-C/IUS spacecraft from Space Shuttle liftoff to a point about 2 h before IUS deployment. SNAP is shown to give reliable results for both cases, with good general agreement between the mapping-matrix and Monte Carlo predictions.

Weir, Kent A.↗

Cyclotron Resonant Scattering Feature Simulations I. Thermally Averaged Cyclotron Scattering Cross Sections, Mean Free Photon-Path Tables, and Electron Momentum Sampling

Electron cyclotron resonant scattering features (CRSFs) are observed as absorption-like lines in the spectra of X-ray pulsars. A significant fraction of the computing time for Monte Carlo simulations of these quantum mechanical features is spent on the calculation of the mean free path for each individual photon before scattering, since it involves a complex numerical integration over the scattering cross section and the (thermal) velocity distribution of the scattering electrons. We aim to numerically calculate interpolation tables which can be used in CRSF simulations to sample the mean free path of the scattering photon and the momentum of the scattering electron. The tables also contain all the information required for sampling the scattering electron's final spin. The tables were calculated using an adaptive Simpson integration scheme. The energy and angle grids were refined until a prescribed accuracy is reached. The tables are used by our simulation code to produce artificial CRSF spectra. The electron momenta sampled during these simulations were analyzed and justified using theoretically determined boundaries. We present a complete set of tables suited for mean free path calculations of Monte Carlo simulations of the cyclotron scattering process for conditions expected in typical X-ray pulsar accretion columns (0.01 B/B(sub crit) is less than or equal to 0.12, where B(sub crit) = 4.413 x 1013 G, and 3 keV kBT 15 keV). The sampling of the tables is chosen such that the results have an estimated relative error of at most 1/15 for all points in the grid. The tables are available online (see link in footnote, page 1).

Schwarm, F.-W.↗

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗