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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

The role of excess vacancies in stabilizing solute clusters in low-alloy steels

The formation of solute clusters in irradiated low-alloy steels, such as reactor pressure vessel steels, is a critical cause of radiation hardening and embrittlement. However, the chemical interactions among solute elements and excess vacancies remain to be fully understood. This study employs density functional theory, cluster expansion, and lattice-based Monte Carlo simulations to examine the stability and morphology of nano-size coherent solute clusters with excess vacancies. The findings reveal that excess vacancies are crucial in stabilizing and promoting the growth of Mn-Ni-Si-vacancy clusters. A minimum of seven vacancies is required for stable nucleation and growth of these clusters. These Mn-Ni-Si clusters act as defect sinks, effectively trapping and absorbing mobile vacancies generated under irradiation. Furthermore, phosphorus (P) preferentially dissolves in Mn-Ni-Si clusters due to chemical coupling with vacancies. In conclusion, this study offers new insights into solute-vacancy interactions, enhancing our understanding of solute-defect cluster formation and embrittlement in low-alloy steels.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monte Carlo Analysis of Coolant Stream Impurity Gamma Emissions in Gas-Cooled Fast Reactors

It is well established that a rapid increase in the concentration of fission products in the reactor coolant stream can serve as an early indication of fuel failure. We use Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the feasibility of using several gamma detectors as diagnostic equipment to monitor the presence of major fission product isotopes in high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) coolant streams for early detection of fuel failure and therefore the prevention of fuel failure conditions. Herein we model the response of high-purity germanium (HPGe), CdZnTe, NaI(Tl), and LaBr 3 (Ce) detectors of typical commercial sizes to the gamma emissions from nuclides expected to be found within the coolant stream of the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) under development by the U.S. Department of Energy. The results indicate that for the 233- and 250-keV gamma rays from 133 Xe and 135 Xe, respectively, the 3σ detection criterion is met in under 1 min using a single HPGe detector. Changes in other spectral lines associated with Xe nuclides are detected within 1 h regardless of the choice of detector.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty analysis for techno-economic and life-cycle assessment of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction with centralized upgrading to produce fuel blendstocks

Wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising technology for producing transportation fuels with much lower greenhouse gases emissions than petroleum-based fuels. However, its techno-economic and life cycle assessment are primarily based on laboratory scale testing data, subject to considerable uncertainties, and even bias, due to knowledge gaps. Here, a preliminary uncertainty analysis of key economic measures was conducted based on the 2019 state-of-technology model for biocrude production. Building on the preliminary analysis, this work presents a comprehensive uncertainty analysis in both economic and environmental measures of the entire supply chain of wet waste hydrothermal liquefaction to fuel blendstocks including biocrude upgrading based on the 2021 state-of-technology model. The analysis includes the most recent developments in hydrothermal liquefaction and biocrude upgrading technologies and Monte Carlo simulation based on an integrated model system including an improved reactor yield model, reduced-order process model, discounted cash flow economic model and simplified life-cycle assessment model. The estimated biocrude yield ranges from 42.2% to 52.4% with a median of 47.3%. The estimated fuel yield ranges from 34.7% to 42.7% with a median of 38.7%. The estimated minimum fuel selling price ranges from $\$ $2.28/gge to $\$ $3.45/gge with a median of $\$ $2.80/gge. Relative to petroleum-derived diesel, the estimated reduction in supply chain greenhouse gas emissions ranges from 73.4% to 81.8% with a median of 77.7%. Compared to the 2019 state-of-technology analysis, a significant improvement in biocrude selectivity and economic measures and reduction in uncertainties were achieved due to the incorporation of additional continuous experimental data sets, technology development and de-risking, and improvement in model accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of neutron production and energy spectrum by the inverse kinematic reaction between an incident 7 Li 3+ beam and a proton target in PHITS

A neutron source using the inverse kinematic reaction between lithium and proton, p( 7 Li, n) 7 Be, achieves forward-directed neutrons, potentially enhancing neutron yield in the forward direction. Despite the advantage, no evaluated-cross-section data for this reaction can be used in Monte Carlo simulation codes, such as PHITS. To solve this problem, this study aims to evaluate the applicability of the user-defined cross-section data, Frag data, for p ( 7 Li, n) 7 Be in PHITS. The simulations reproduced collisions between 7 Li 3+ ions and polypropylene targets. The Frag data was edited based on the JENDL-5 by utilizing the two-body collision kinematics. The neutron yield and angular distribution were investigated in the simulation. As a result, the forward neutron convergence with a reasonable neutron yield and energy spectrum was observed. The expected neutron yield in the forward 1-steradian area is 2.46 × 10 10 n/s when lithium-ion energy and current are 16.45 MeV and 0.1 mA.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Clear-sky detection for PV degradation analysis using multiple regression

A method is presented to detect clear-sky periods for plane-of-array irradiance time-averaged data that is based on the algorithm originally described by Reno and Hansen. Here we show this new method improves the state-of-the-art by providing accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. Moreover, our new method detects clear periods in plane-of-array data, which is novel. The new method is developed by applying a Design of Experiment approach to optimize the parameters used in the Reno method, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the robustness of the found parameters. Clear-sky detection accuracy is compared among four methods: the Reno method, the default clear-sky filter in RdTools, the Ellis method, and the method outlined in this work, using a hand-labeled two-year data set of 1-min plane-of-array irradiance for a fixed tilt system. The RdTools clear-sky filter is marred by excessive false positives. The other methods all perform well at 1-min data intervals; the method developed here provides more accurate detection at longer data averaging intervals. We show that the parameters are directly linked to the data frequency in the hope that these input variables may not have to be optimized for every data frequency and location. However, only a single fixed system in one location was carefully examined. Finally, we illustrate how accurate determination of clear-sky conditions helps to eliminate data noise and bias in the assessment of long-term performance of PV plants.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational modeling of charge hopping dynamics along a disordered one-dimensional wire with energy gradients in quantum environments

This computational study investigates the effects of energy gradients on charge hopping dynamics along a one-dimensional chain of discrete sites coupled to quantum bath, which is modeled at the level of Pauli master equation (PME). This study also assesses the performance of different approximations for the hopping rates. Three different methods for solving the PME, a fourth order Runge–Kutta method, numerical diagonalization of the rate matrix followed by analytic propagation, and kinetic Monte Carlo simulation method, are tested and confirmed to produce virtually identical values of time dependent mean square displacement, diffusion constant, and mobility. Five different rate expressions, exact numerical evaluation of Fermi’s Golden Rule (FGR) rate, stationary phase interpolation (SPI) approximation, semiclassical approximation, classical Marcus rate, and Miller–Abrahams rate, are tested to help understand the effects of approximations in representing quantum environments in the presence of energy gradients. The results based on direct numerical evaluation of FGR rate exhibit transition from diffusive to non-diffusive behavior with the increase in the gradient and show that the charge transport in the quantum bath is more sensitive to the magnitude of the gradient and the disorder than in the classical bath. Among all the four approximations for the hopping rates, the SPI approximation is confirmed to work best overall. A comparison of two different methods to calculate the mobility identifies drift motion of the population distribution as the major source of non-diffusive behavior and provides more reliable information on the contribution of quantum bath.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Competing Easy-Axis Anisotropies Impacting Magnetic Tunnel Junction-Based Molecular Spintronics Devices (MTJMSDs)

Molecular spintronics devices (MSDs) attempt to harness molecules’ quantum state, size, and configurable attributes for application in computer devices—a quest that began more than 70 years ago. In the vast number of theoretical studies and limited experimental attempts, MSDs have been found to be suitable for application in memory devices and futuristic quantum computers. MSDs have recently also exhibited intriguing spin photovoltaic-like phenomena, signaling their potential application in cost-effective and novel solar cell technologies. The molecular spintronics field’s major challenge is the lack of mass-fabrication methods producing robust magnetic molecule connections with magnetic electrodes of different anisotropies. Another main challenge is the limitations of conventional theoretical methods for understanding experimental results and designing new devices. Magnetic tunnel junction-based molecular spintronics devices (MTJMSDs) are designed by covalently connecting paramagnetic molecules across an insulating tunneling barrier. The insulating tunneling barrier serves as a mechanical spacer between two ferromagnetic (FM) electrodes of tailorable magnetic anisotropies to allow molecules to undergo many intriguing phenomena. Our experimental studies showed that the paramagnetic molecules could produce strong antiferromagnetic coupling between two FM electrodes, leading to a dramatic large-scale impact on the magnetic electrode itself. Recently, we showed that the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) was effective in providing plausible insights into the observation of unusual magnetic domains based on the role of single easy-axis magnetic anisotropy. Here, we experimentally show that the response of a paramagnetic molecule is dramatically different when connected to FM electrodes of different easy-axis anisotropies. Motivated by our experimental studies, here, we report on an MCS study investigating the impact of the simultaneous presence of two easy-axis anisotropies on MTJMSD equilibrium properties. In-plane easy-axis anisotropy produced multiple magnetic phases of opposite spins. The multiple magnetic phases vanished at higher thermal energy, but the MTJMSD still maintained a higher magnetic moment because of anisotropy. The out-of-plane easy-axis anisotropy caused a dominant magnetic phase in the FM electrode rather than multiple magnetic phases. The simultaneous application of equal-magnitude in-plane and out-of-plane easy-axis anisotropies on the same electrode negated the anisotropy effect. Our experimental and MCS study provides insights for designing and understanding new spintronics-based devices.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental study of energy-dependent angular broadening of MeV electron beams for high-resolution imaging in thick samples

In scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM), spatial resolution is primarily influenced by the projected size of the electron probe within the specimen. In thin samples, a large semi-convergence angle enables a tightly focused beam and sub-nanometer resolution. However, in thick specimens, resolution is fundamentally limited by transverse beam broadening from multiple large-angle scattering events—for example, a probe with 10 mrad angular divergence can broaden by ∼100 nm over a 10 μm path. Since this broadening scales inversely with beam energy, MeV-STEM offers a promising route for high-resolution imaging in thick materials. To quantitatively assess this effect, we performed high-precision measurements at UCLA’s PEGASUS beamline, characterizing beam divergence and intensity profiles for 3–8 MeV electrons transmitted through a wedged-silicon sample of varying thickness. Our results reconcile discrepancies among analytical models and validate Monte Carlo simulations. Here, we find that increasing beam energy from 3.0 to 5.8 MeV reduces angular broadening by a factor of 2.6, with diminishing returns observed at 7.6 MeV. These findings provide a quantitative framework for optimizing MeV-STEM parameters in high-resolution imaging of thick biological and microelectronic specimens, and for guiding beam energy selection in other advanced imaging modes beyond STEM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantitative Modeling of High-Energy Electron Scattering in Thick Samples Using Monte Carlo Techniques

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a powerful tool for imaging biological samples but is typically limited by sample thickness, which is restricted to a few hundred nanometers depending on the electron energy. However, there is a growing need for imaging techniques capable of studying biological samples up to 10 µm in thickness while maintaining nanoscale resolution. This need motivates the use of mega-electron-volt scanning transmission electron microscopy (MeV-STEM), which leverages the high penetration power of MeV electrons to generate high-resolution images of thicker samples. In this study, we employ Monte Carlo simulations to model electron–sample interactions and explore the signal decay of imaging electrons through thick specimens. By incorporating material properties, interaction cross-sections for energy loss, and experimental parameters, we investigate the relationship between the incident and transmitted beam intensities. Key factors such as detector collection angle, convergence semi-angle, and the material properties of samples were analyzed. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between incident and transmitted beam intensities follows the Beer–Lambert law over thicknesses ranging from a few microns to several tens of microns, depending on material composition, electron energy, and collection angles. The linear depth of silicon dioxide reaches 3.9 µm at 3 MeV, about 6 times higher than that at 300 keV. Meanwhile, the linear depth of amorphous ice reaches 17.9 µm at 3 MeV, approximately 11.5 times higher than that at 300 keV. These findings are crucial for advancing the study of thick biological and semiconductor samples using MeV-STEM.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pathway for decarbonizing residential building operations in the US and China beyond the mid-century

With global carbon budget targets looming, residential buildings in top economies must become carbon neutral as soon as possible to reserve more emission space for emerging carbon-emitting economies. This study is the first to compare the operational decarbonization process of China’s and the United States (US) residential buildings from 2000 to 2060 by combining the end-use emission model with the decomposing structural decomposition (DSD) method and Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that from 2001 to 2020 China decarbonized 1544 mega-tons of carbon dioxide (MtCO 2 ) and the US decarbonized 1848 MtCO 2 . In the business-as-usual scenario, China will hit its emission peak in 2031 (±3) with 934 (±61) MtCO 2 , while the US will maintain a lock-in level of 736 (±133) MtCO 2 since the 2030s. In the decarbonization scenario, operational carbon neutrality for residential buildings in 2060 is promoted by an increase in clean power generation proportion, building-integrated power generation level, building electrification level, and a reduction in end-use energy intensity, which will contribute 34.4 %, 21.4 %, 14.3 %, and 29.9 % in China and 32.9 %, 33.1 %, 8.2 %, and 25.8 % in the US, respectively. Especially, building-integrated power generation in China only costs about 40 % of what it costs in the US. Besides, high-decarbonization strategies for residential building operations are proposed as references for governments to formulate targeted climate policies. Overall, this study offers data benchmarks for buildings’ carbon neutrality of top economies to further promote synergistic carbon neutrality with the buildings of emerging economies in the age of Post COP27.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic life-cycle carbon analysis for fast pyrolysis biofuel produced from pine residues: implications of carbon temporal effects

Abstract Background Woody biomass has been considered as a promising feedstock for biofuel production via thermochemical conversion technologies such as fast pyrolysis. Extensive Life Cycle Assessment studies have been completed to evaluate the carbon intensity of woody biomass-derived biofuels via fast pyrolysis. However, most studies assumed that woody biomass such as forest residues is a carbon–neutral feedstock like annual crops, despite a distinctive timeframe it takes to grow woody biomass. Besides, few studies have investigated the impacts of forest dynamics and the temporal effects of carbon on the overall carbon intensity of woody-derived biofuels. This study addressed such gaps by developing a life-cycle carbon analysis framework integrating dynamic modeling for forest and biorefinery systems with a time-based discounted Global Warming Potential (GWP) method developed in this work. The framework analyzed dynamic carbon and energy flows of a supply chain for biofuel production from pine residues via fast pyrolysis. Results The mean carbon intensity of biofuel given by Monte Carlo simulation across three pine growth cases ranges from 40.8–41.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) to 51.0–65.2 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (using the time-based discounted GWP method) when combusting biochar for energy recovery. If biochar is utilized as soil amendment, the carbon intensity reduces to 19.0–19.7 g CO 2 e MJ −1 (static method) and 29.6–43.4 g CO 2 e MJ −1 in the time-based method. Forest growth and yields (controlled by forest management strategies) show more significant impacts on biofuel carbon intensity when the temporal effect of carbon is taken into consideration. Variation in forest operations and management (e.g., energy consumption of thinning and harvesting), on the other hand, has little impact on the biofuel carbon intensity. Conclusions The carbon temporal effect, particularly the time lag of carbon sequestration during pine growth, has direct impacts on the carbon intensity of biofuels produced from pine residues from a stand-level pine growth and management point of view. The carbon implications are also significantly impacted by the assumptions of biochar end-of-life cases and forest management strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimize Electron Beam Energy toward In Situ Imaging of Thick Frozen Bio-Samples with Nanometer Resolution Using MeV-STEM

To optimize electron energy for in situ imaging of large biological samples up to 10 μm in thickness with nanoscale resolutions, we implemented an analytical model based on elastic and inelastic characteristic angles. This model has been benchmarked by Monte Carlo simulations and can be used to predict the transverse beam size broadening as a function of electron energy while the probe beam traverses through the sample. As a result, the optimal choice of the electron beam energy can be realized. In addition, the impact of the dose-limited resolution was analysed. While the sample thickness is less than 10 μm, there exists an optimal electron beam energy below 10 MeV regarding a specific sample thickness. However, for samples thicker than 10 μm, the optimal beam energy is 10 MeV or higher depending on the sample thickness, and the ultimate resolution could become worse with the increase in the sample thickness. Moreover, a MeV-STEM column based on a two-stage lens system can be applied to reduce the beam size from one micron at aperture to one nanometre at the sample with the energy tuning range from 3 to 10 MeV. In conjunction with the state-of-the-art ultralow emittance electron source that we recently implemented, the maximum size of an electron beam when it traverses through an up to 10 μm thick bio-sample can be kept less than 10 nm . This is a critical step toward the in situ imaging of large, thick biological samples with nanometer resolution.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing reliable machine learning interatomic potential for Fe–Cr–Ni austenitic alloys

Gaining atomistic understanding of mechanical behavior of heat-resistant structural materials such as Fe–Cr–Ni-based alloys requires an approach with an accuracy close to density functional theory (DFT) that considers the intrinsic properties of the bulk lattice and important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces. This work aims to develop reliable machine learning interatomic potential (MLIAP) at cross-scale for Fe–Cr–Ni ternary alloys with a focus on the face-centered-cubic (fcc) solid solution structure. Leveraging the advantages of moment tensor potentials, which typically necessitate a relatively small training dataset and enable rapid calculations using the large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator package, we ensure the stability and accuracy of the trained potentials. Important defects such as stacking faults, grain boundaries, and surfaces for wide-range compositions are investigated. Structural, thermal, elastic, and defect properties are determined from molecular dynamics simulations comprising several thousand atoms, generated via canonical Monte Carlo simulations guided by the trained potential. The trained potential allows efficient atomic simulations of structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of fcc Fe–Cr–Ni solid solution alloys as a function of composition and temperature. Therefore, the MLIAP approach represents a major advancement from DFT calculations that are limited to small simulation sizes and traditional molecular dynamics simulations using relatively low accuracy potentials. Furthermore, this work outlines a practical foundation for further investigating the structural evolution and mechanical behavior of austenitic stainless steel and nickel-based alloys in a wide array of applications in extreme environments.

Crystal structure↗
DOE OSTI2020

Feasibility of Observing Gamma-Ray Polarization from Cygnus X-1 Using a CubeSat

Instruments flown on CubeSats are small. Meaningful applications of CubeSats in astronomical observations rely on the choice of a particular subject that is feasible for CubeSats. Here we report the result of a feasibility study for observing gamma-ray polarization from Cygnus X-1 using a small Compton polarimeter on board a 3U CubeSat. Silicon detectors and cerium bromide scintillators were employed in the instrument models that we discuss in this study. Through Monte Carlo simulations with a Geant4-based MEGAlib package, we found that, with a 10 Ms on-axis, zenith-direction observation in a low-inclination, low-altitude, Earth-orbit radiation background environment, the minimum detectable polarization degree can be down to about 10% in 160–250 keV, 20% in 250–400 keV, and 65% in 400–2000 keV. A 3U CubeSat dedicated to observing Cygnus X-1 can therefore yield useful information on the polarization state of gamma-ray emissions from the brightest persistent X-ray black hole binary in the sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of uncertain feedstock quality on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries with blended feedstocks and decentralized preprocessing sites in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study performs techno‐economic analysis and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) to explore the effects that variations in biomass feedstock quality have on the economic feasibility of fast pyrolysis biorefineries using decentralized preprocessing sites (i.e., depots that produce pellets). Two biomass resources in the Southeastern United States, that is, pine residues and switchgrass, were examined as feedstocks. A scenario analysis was conducted for an array of different combinations, including different pellet ash control levels, feedstock blending ratios, different biorefinery capacities, and different biorefinery on‐stream capacities, followed by a comparison with the traditional centralized system. MCS results show that, with depot preprocessing, variations in the feedstock moisture and feedstock ash content can be significantly reduced compared with a traditional centralized system. For a biorefinery operating at 100% of its designed capacity, the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the decentralized system is $3.97–$4.39 per gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) based on the mean value across all scenarios, whereas the mean MFSP for the traditional centralized system was $3.79–$4.12/GGE. To understand the potential benefits of highly flowable pellets in decreasing biorefinery downtime due to feedstock handling and plugging problems, this study also compares the MFSP of the decentralized system at 90% of its designed capacity with a traditional system at 80%. The analysis illustrates that using low ash pellets mixed with switchgrass and pine residues generates a more competitive MFSP. Specifically, for a biorefinery designed for 2,000 oven dry metric ton per day, running a blended pellet made from 75% switchgrass and 25% pine residues with 2% ash level, and operating at 90% of designed capacity could make an MFSP between $4.49 and $4.71/GGE. In contrast, a traditional centralized biorefinery operating at 80% of designed capacity marks an MFSP between $4.72 and $5.28.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty in determining carbon dioxide removal potential of biochar

A quantitative and systematic assessment of uncertainty in life-cycle assessment is critical to informing sustainable development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Biochar is the most commonly sold form of CDR to date and it can be used in applications ranging from concrete to agricultural soil amendments. Previous analyses of biochar rely on modeled or estimated life-cycle data and suggest a cradle-to-gate range of 0.20–1.3 kg CO 2 net removal per kg of biomass feedstock, with the range reported driven by differences in energy consumption, pyrolysis temperature, and feedstock sourcing. Herein, we quantify the distribution of CDR possible for biochar production with a compositional life-cycle inventory model paired with scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation in a 'best practice' (incorporating lower transportation distances, high pyrolysis temperatures, high energy efficiency, recapture of energy for drying and pyrolysis energy requirements, and co-generation of heat and electricity) and 'poor practice' (higher transportation distances, lower pyrolysis temperatures, low energy efficiency, natural gas for energy requirements, and no energy recovery) scenarios. In the best-practice scenario, cradle-to-gate CDR (which is representative of the upper limit of removal across the entire life cycle) is highly certain, with a median removal of 1.4 kg of CO 2 e/kg biomass and results in net removal across the entire distribution. In contrast, the poor-practice scenario results in median net emissions of 0.090 kg CO 2 e/kg biomass. Whether this scenario emits (66% likelihood) or removes (34% likelihood) carbon dioxide is highly uncertain. The emission intensity of energy inputs to the pyrolysis process and whether the bio-oil co-product is used as a chemical feedstock or combusted are critical factors impacting the net carbon dioxide emissions of biochar production, together responsible for 98% of the difference between the best- and poor-practice scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗