Noble Gas Surface Flux Simulations And Atmospheric Transport
Signatures from underground nuclear explosions or UNEs are strongly influenced by the containment regime surrounding them. The degree of gas leakage from the detonation cavity to the surface obviously affects the magnitude of surface fluxes of radioxenon that might be detected during the course of a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty On-Site Inspection. In turn, the magnitude of surface fluxes will influence the downwind detectability of the radioxenon atmospheric signature from the event. Less obvious is the influence that leakage rates have on the evolution of radioxenon isotopes in the cavity or the downwind radioisotopic measurements that might be made. The objective of this letter report is to summarize our attempt to better understand how containment conditions affect both the detection and interpretation of radioxenon signatures obtained from sampling at the ground surface near an event as well as at greater distances in the atmosphere. In the discussion that follows, we make no attempt to consider other sources of radioactive noble gases such as natural backgrounds or atmospheric contamination and, for simplicity, only focus on detonation-produced radioxenon gases. Summarizing our simulations, they show that the decay of radioxenon isotopes (e.g., Xe-133, Xe-131m, Xe-133m and Xe-135) and their migration to the surface following a UNE means that the possibility of detecting these gases exists within a window of opportunity. In some cases, seeps or venting of detonation gases may allow significant quantities to reach the surface and be released into the atmosphere immediately following a UNE. In other release scenarios – the ones we consider here – hours to days may be required for gases to reach the surface at detectable levels. These release models are most likely more characteristic of “fully contained” events that lack prompt venting, but which still leak gas slowly across the surface for periods of months.