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Energy Emergency and Preparedness Data: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) and Quick Guidance on Crisis Communications

State Energy Offices and Public Utility Commissions rely on timely, accurate, and actionable information to perform their energy emergency response duties and execute their roles as state energy security planners. In support of this need, the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) and the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissions (NARUC) hosted an Energy Security and Data Analysis Workshop in Washington, DC to identify energy security response and planning data sources; and to share successful methods of data use and integration in state, federal, and private sector tools. Following the workshop, NASEO and NARUC hosted two topical data-centric webinars based on state priorities to identify best practices in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Crisis Communications programs leveraged in energy assurance planning and response. The Crisis Communications webinar covered best practice tactics for how states can respond during energy emergencies and other crises. Based on the workshop and webinars, this document summarizes commonly used data sources and includes frequently asked questions which may be used by state energy officials (i.e., consisting of staff from Public Utility Commissions and Governor-designated State Energy Offices) to help guide them in developing or improving their Crisis Communications capabilities. A strong public information program is a key crisis management tool. Timely and accurate information helps prevent confusion and uncertainty and encourages public support and cooperation. As energy subject matter experts, state energy officials are vital in the distilling, clarifying, and conveying energy sector information and implications to decision-makers and the public. Other participants in an effective public information program include the Governor’s Office, other state agencies, local governments, energy providers, local businesses, state legislature, and the federal government. It is essential to provide stakeholders and the public with information about the nature, severity, and duration of an emergency because inadequate understanding and awareness can lead to undesirable actions that could further exacerbate the situation. Before a state government can provide information to the public, it must gather information, describe the emergency accurately, and develop recommendations to manage the situation.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Frequency and time multiplexing for multiphoton state generation

One of the primary challenges with photonic quantum information processing is that single-photon states are created and heralded probabilistically, rather than being created on demand. One solution to this problem is multiplexing , which is attempting probabilistic generation of a single photon at multiple locations, times, or frequencies, and switching one successfully generated photon into an output mode. Motivated by the development of frequency-based photonic quantum information processing, we consider multiplexing using frequency and time as our options to use to get many photon generation opportunities. We devise an approach for generating multiphoton states, with photons populating multiple frequency modes in the same spatiotemporal mode. This method uses a variable-length optical delays to manipulate the temporal mode of the photons, and spaced fiber Bragg grating (FBG) reflectors to jointly manipulate the frequency and temporal modes of the photons. Experimental progress toward implementing this multiplexing scheme is proceeding along 2 fronts, each with different ways to achieve the variable-length optical delay. First, we will implement this scheme using a free-space optical quantum memory with multiple discretely adjustable free-space delays. For this implementation method, I calculate multiphoton generation rates, accounting for loss, that are realistically achievable with commercially available hardware. This work will appear in a theory paper, currently in preparation. Second, we will implement this multiplexing scheme in an integrated manner: the variable-length optical delay will happen on-chip using a long-lifetime Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavity. The joint manipulation of the frequency and temporal modes of the photons will still happen off-chip in fiber with FBG reflectors. I report on experimental progress in constructing integrated Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lessons Learnt From the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, has been characterized by unprecedented rates of spatio-temporal spread. Here, we summarize the main events in the pandemic's timeline and evaluate what has been learnt by the public health community. We also discuss the implications for future public health policy and, specifically, the practice of epidemic control. We critically analyze this ongoing pandemic's timeline and contrast it with the 2002–2003 SARS outbreak. We identify specific areas (e.g., pathogen identification and initial reporting) wherein the international community learnt valuable lessons from the SARS outbreak. However, we also identify the key areas where international public health policy failed leading to the exponential spread of the pandemic. We outline a clear agenda for improved pandemic control in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Envelope- and Machine Learning-Based Electrical Fault Type Detection Algorithms for Electrical Distribution Grids

This study introduces envelope- and machine learning (ML)-based electrical fault type detection algorithms for electrical distribution grids, advancing beyond traditional logic-based methods. The proposed detection model involves three stages: anomaly area detection, ML-based fault presence detection, and ML-based fault type detection. Initially, an envelope-based detector identifying the anomaly region was improved to handle noisier power grid signals from meters. The second stage acts as a switch, detecting the presence of a fault among four classes: normal, motor, switching, and fault. Finally, if a fault is detected, the third stage identifies specific fault types. This study explored various feature extraction methods and evaluated different ML algorithms to maximize prediction accuracy. The performance of the proposed algorithms is tested in an emulated software–hardware electrical grid testbed using different sample rate meters/relays, such as SEL735, SEL421, SEL734, SEL700GT, and SEL351S near and far from an inverter-based photovoltaic array farm. The performance outcomes demonstrate the proposed model’s robustness and accuracy under realistic conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Method for Spatiotemporal Solar Power Profile Estimation for a Proposed U.S.–Caribbean–South America Super Grid under Hurricanes

Solar photovoltaic (PV) generation technology stands out as a scalable and cost-effective solution to enable the transition toward decarbonization. However, PV solar output, beyond the daily solar irradiance variability and unavailability during nights, is very sensitive to weather events like hurricanes. Hurricanes nucleate massive amounts of clouds around their centers, shading hundreds of kilometers in their path, reducing PV power output. This research proposes a spatiotemporal method, implemented in MATLAB R2023b coding, to estimate the shading effect of hurricanes over a wide distribution of PV solar plants connected to a high-voltage power infrastructure called the U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid. The complete interconnection of the U.S., the Caribbean, and South America results in the lowest power valley levels, i.e., an overall percentual reduction in PV power output caused by hurricane shading. The simulations assess the impact of hurricanes in 10 synthetic trajectories spanning from Texas to Florida. The Caribbean would also experience lower power valleys with expanded interconnectivity schemes. The U.S.–Caribbean–South America super grid reduces Caribbean variability from 37.8% to 8.9% in the case study. The proposed spatiotemporal method for PV power profile estimation is a valuable tool for future solar power generation expansion, transmission planning, and system design considering the impact of hurricanes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cross Sections for Coherent Elastic and Inelastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering

The prospects of extracting new physics signals in coherent elastic neutrino–nucleus scattering (CEνNS) processes are limited by the precision with which the underlying nuclear structure physics, embedded in the weak nuclear form factor, is known. We present calculations of charge and weak nuclear form factors and CEνNS cross sections on 12C, 16O, 40Ar, 56Fe and 208Pb nuclei. We obtain the proton and neutron densities, and charge and weak form factors by solving Hartree–Fock (HF) equations with a Skyrme (SkE2) nuclear potential. We validate our approach by comparing 208Pb and 40Ar charge form factor predictions with available elastic electron scattering data. Since CEνNS experiments at stopped-pion sources are also well suited to measure inelastic charged–current and neutral–current neutrino–nucleus cross sections, we also present calculations for these processes, incorporating a continuum Random Phase Approximation (CRPA) description on top of the HF–SkE2 picture of the nucleus. Providing both coherent as well as inelastic cross sections in a consistent framework, we aim at obtaining a reliable and detailed comparison of the strength of these processes in the energy region below 100 MeV. Furthermore, we attempt to gauge the level of theoretical uncertainty pertaining to the description of the 40Ar form factor and CEνNS cross sections by comparing relative differences between recent microscopic nuclear theory and widely-used phenomenological form factor predictions. Future precision measurements of CEνNS will potentially help in constraining these nuclear structure details that will in turn improve prospects of extracting new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

CMB-S4: Forecasting Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves

CMB-S4—the next-generation ground-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment—is set to significantly advance the sensitivity of CMB measurements and enhance our understanding of the origin and evolution of the universe. Among the science cases pursued with CMB-S4, the quest for detecting primordial gravitational waves is a central driver of the experimental design. This work details the development of a forecasting framework that includes a power-spectrum-based semianalytic projection tool, targeted explicitly toward optimizing constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r, in the presence of Galactic foregrounds and gravitational lensing of the CMB. This framework is unique in its direct use of information from the achieved performance of current Stage 2–3 CMB experiments to robustly forecast the science reach of upcoming CMB-polarization endeavors. The methodology allows for rapid iteration over experimental configurations and offers a flexible way to optimize the design of future experiments, given a desired scientific goal. To form a closed-loop process, we couple this semianalytic tool with map-based validation studies, which allow for the injection of additional complexity and verification of our forecasts with several independent analysis methods. We document multiple rounds of forecasts for CMB-S4 using this process and the resulting establishment of the current reference design of the primordial gravitational-wave component of the Stage-4 experiment, optimized to achieve our science goals of detecting primordial gravitational waves for r > 0.003 at greater than 5σ, or in the absence of a detection, of reaching an upper limit of r < 0.001 at 95% CL.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The High Fraction of Thin Disk Galaxies Continues to Challenge ΛCDM Cosmology

Any viable cosmological framework has to match the observed proportion of early- and late-type galaxies. In this contribution, we focus on the distribution of galaxy morphological types in the standard model of cosmology (Lambda cold dark matter, ΛCDM). Using the latest state-of-the-art cosmological ΛCDM simulations known as Illustris, IllustrisTNG, and EAGLE, we calculate the intrinsic and sky-projected aspect ratio distribution of the stars in subhalos with stellar mass M * > 10 10 M ⊙ at redshift z = 0. There is a significant deficit of intrinsically thin disk galaxies, which however comprise most of the locally observed galaxy population. Consequently, the sky-projected aspect ratio distribution produced by these ΛCDM simulations disagrees with the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey and Sloan Digital Sky Survey at ≥12.52σ (TNG50-1) and ≥14.82σ (EAGLE50) confidence. The deficit of intrinsically thin galaxies could be due to a much less hierarchical merger-driven build-up of observed galaxies than is given by the ΛCDM framework. It might also arise from the implemented sub-grid models, or from the limited resolution of the above-mentioned hydrodynamical simulations. We estimate that an 8 5 times better mass resolution realization than TNG50-1 would reduce the tension with GAMA to the 5.58σ level. Finally, we show that galaxies with fewer major mergers have a somewhat thinner aspect ratio distribution. Given also the high expected frequency of minor mergers in ΛCDM, the problem may be due to minor mergers. In this case, the angular momentum problem could be alleviated in Milgromian dynamics because of a reduced merger frequency arising from the absence of dynamical friction between extended dark matter halos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

COMAP Early Science. V. Constraints and Forecasts at z ~ 3

We present the current state of models for the z ~ 3 carbon monoxide (CO) line intensity signal targeted by the CO Mapping Array Project (COMAP) Pathfinder in the context of its early science results. Our fiducial model, relating dark matter halo properties to CO luminosities, informs parameter priors with empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection and previous CO (1–0) observations. The Pathfinder early science data spanning wavenumbers k = 0.051–0.62 Mpc –1 represent the first direct 3D constraint on the clustering component of the CO (1–0) power spectrum. Our 95% upper limit on the redshift-space clustering amplitude A clust ≲ 70 μK 2 greatly improves on the indirect upper limit of 420 μK 2 reported from the CO Power Spectrum Survey (COPSS) measurement at k ~ 1 Mpc –1 . The COMAP limit excludes a subset of models from previous literature and constrains interpretation of the COPSS results, demonstrating the complementary nature of COMAP and interferometric CO surveys. Using line bias expectations from our priors, we also constrain the squared mean line intensity–bias product, ${\left\langle {Tb}\right\rangle }_{2}$ ≲ 50 μK 2 , and the cosmic molecular gas density, ρ H2 < 2.5 × 10 8 M ⊙ Mpc –3 (95% upper limits). Based on early instrument performance and our current CO signal estimates, we forecast that the 5 yr Pathfinder campaign will detect the CO power spectrum with overall signal-to-noise ratio of 9–17. Between then and now, we also expect to detect the CO–galaxy cross-spectrum using overlapping galaxy survey data, enabling enhanced inferences of cosmic star formation and galaxy evolution history.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Combining Planck and SPT Cluster Catalogs: Cosmological Analysis and Impact on the Planck Scaling Relation Calibration

We provide the first combined cosmological analysis of the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and Planck cluster catalogs. The aim is to provide an independent calibration for Planck scaling relations, exploiting the cosmological constraining power of the SPT-SZ cluster catalog and its dedicated weak lensing (WL) and X-ray follow-up observations. We build a new version of the Planck cluster likelihood. In the νΛ CDM scenario, focusing on the mass slope and mass bias of Planck scaling relations, we find ${\alpha }_{\mathrm{SZ}}={1.49}_{-0.10}^{+0.07}$ and ${\left(1-b\right)}_{\mathrm{SZ}}={0.69}_{-0.14}^{+0.07}$, respectively. The results for the mass slope show a ~4 σ departure from the self-similar evolution, α SZ ~ 1.8. This shift is mainly driven by the matter density value preferred by SPT data, Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.03, lower than the one obtained by Planck data alone, ${{\rm{\Omega }}}_{m}={0.37}_{-0.06}^{+0.02}$. The mass bias constraints are consistent both with outcomes of hydrodynamical simulations and external WL calibrations, (1 – b) ~ 0.8, and with results required by the Planck cosmic microwave background cosmology, (1 – b) ~ 0.6. From this analysis, we obtain a new catalog of Planck cluster masses M 500 . We estimate the ratio between the published Planck M SZ masses and our derived masses M 500 , as a "measured mass bias," ${\left(1-b\right)}_{M}$. We analyze the mass, redshift, and detection noise dependence of ${\left(1-b\right)}_{M}$, finding an increasing trend toward high redshift and low mass. These results mimic the effect of departure from self-similarity in cluster evolution, showing different dependencies for the low-mass, high-mass, low-z, and high-z regimes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Formulating the r-mode Problem for Slowly Rotating Neutron Stars

We revisit the problem of inertial r-modes in stratified stars, drawing on a more precise description of the composition stratification in a mature neutron star. The results highlight issues with the traditional approach to the problem, leading us to rethink the computational strategy for the r-modes of nonbarotropic neutron stars. We outline two strategies for dealing with the problem. For moderate to slowly rotating neutron stars the only viable alternative may be to approach the problem numerically from the outset, while a meaningful slow-rotation calculation can be carried out for the fastest known spinning stars (which may be close to being driven unstable by the emission of gravitational waves). We demonstrate that the latter approach leads to a problem close, but not identical, to that for barotropic inertial modes. We also suggest that these reformulations of the problem likely resolve the long-standing problem of singular behavior associated with a corotation point in rotating relativistic neutron stars. This issue needs to be resolved in order to guide future gravitational-wave searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing the Directionality of Gravitational Wave Emission from Matter Motions within Core-collapse Supernovae

Abstract We analyze the directional dependence of the gravitational wave (GW) emission from 15 3D neutrino radiation hydrodynamic simulations of core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe). Using spin weighted spherical harmonics, we develop a new analytic technique to quantify the evolution of the distribution of GW emission over all angles. We construct a physics-informed toy model that can be used to approximate GW distributions for general ellipsoid-like systems, and use it to provide closed form expressions for the distribution of GWs for different CCSN phases. Using these toy models, we approximate the protoneutron star (PNS) dynamics during multiple CCSN stages and obtain similar GW distributions to simulation outputs. When considering all viewing angles, we apply this new technique to quantify the evolution of preferred directions of GW emission. For nonrotating cases, this dominant viewing angle drifts isotropically throughout the supernova, set by the dynamical timescale of the PNS. For rotating cases, during core bounce and the following tens of milliseconds, the strongest GW signal is observed along the equator. During the accretion phase, comparable—if not stronger—GW amplitudes are generated along the axis of rotation, which can be enhanced by the low T /∣ W ∣ instability. We show two dominant factors influencing the directionality of GW emission are the degree of initial rotation and explosion morphology. Lastly, looking forward, we note the sensitive interplay between GW detector site and supernova orientation, along with its effect on detecting individual polarization modes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

A Measurement of Atmospheric Circular Polarization with POLARBEAR

At millimeter wavelengths, the atmospheric emission is circularly polarized owing to the Zeeman splitting of molecular oxygen by the Earth's magnetic field. We report a measurement of the signal in the 150 GHz band using 3 yr of observational data with the POLARBEAR project. Nonidealities of a continuously rotating half-wave plate (HWP) partially convert circularly polarized light to linearly polarized light. While POLARBEAR detectors are sensitive to linear polarization, this effect makes them sensitive to circular polarization. Although this was not the intended use, we utilized this conversion to measure circular polarization. We reconstruct the azimuthal gradient of the circular polarization signal and measure its dependency from the scanning direction and the detector bandpass. We compare the signal with a simulation based on atmospheric emission theory, the detector bandpass, and the HWP leakage spectrum model. We find the ratio of the observed azimuthal slope to the simulated slope is 0.92 ± 0.01(stat) ± 0.07(sys). This ratio corresponds to a brightness temperature of 3.8 mK at the effective band center of 121.8 GHz and bandwidth of 3.5 GHz estimated from representative detector bandpass and the spectrum of Zeeman emission. This result validates our understanding of the instrument and reinforces the feasibility of measuring the circular polarization using the imperfection of continuously rotating HWP. Continuously rotating HWP is popular in ongoing and future cosmic microwave background experiments to modulate the polarized signal. This work shows a method for signal extraction and leakage subtraction that can help measure circular polarization in such experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Unified and consistent structure growth measurements from joint ACT, SPT and \textit{Planck} CMB lensing

We present the tightest cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing constraints to date on the growth of structure by combining CMB lensing measurements from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), the South Pole Telescope (SPT) and \textit{Planck}. Each of these surveys individually provides lensing measurements with similarly high statistical power, achieving signal-to-noise ratios of approximately 40. The combined lensing bandpowers represent the most precise CMB lensing power spectrum measurement to date with a signal-to-noise ratio of 61 and an amplitude of $A_\mathrm{lens}^\mathrm{recon} = 1.025 \pm 0.017$ with respect to the theory prediction from the best-fit CMB \textit{Planck}-ACT cosmology. The bandpowers from all three lensing datasets, analyzed jointly, yield a $1.6\%$ measurement of the parameter combination $S_8^\mathrm{CMBL} \equiv σ_8\,(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.25} = 0.825^{+0.015}_{-0.013}$. Including Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) data improves the constraint on the amplitude of matter fluctuations to $σ_8 = 0.829 \pm 0.009$ (a $1.1\%$ determination). When combining with uncalibrated supernovae from \texttt{Pantheon+}, we present a $4\%$ sound-horizon-independent estimate of $H_0=66.4\pm2.5\,\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}} $. The joint lensing constraints on structure growth and present-day Hubble rate are fully consistent with a $Λ$CDM model fit to the primary CMB data from \textit{Planck} and ACT. While the precise upper limit is sensitive to the choice of data and underlying model assumptions, when varying the neutrino mass sum within the $Λ\mathrm{CDM}$ cosmological model, the combination of primary CMB, BAO and CMB lensing drives the probable upper limit for the mass sum towards lower values, comparable to the minimum mass prior required by neutrino oscillation experiments.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗