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At least 289 records · Page 16

Carbon Monoxide Distributions and Atmosphere Transports over Southern Africa

Sources and transports of CO as measured by the Measurement of Air Pollution from Space (MAPS) over a substantial sector of the southern hemisphere between South America and southern Africa are described by air parcel trajectories based upon European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model data fields. Observations, made by NASA Shuttle astronauts during the October 1994 mission, of vegetation fires suggest a direct relationship between in situ biomass burning, at least over South America and southern Africa, and coincident tropospheric measurements of CO. Results of this paper indicate that the transport of CO from the surface to the levels of maximum MAPS sensitivity (about 450 hPa) over these regions is not of a direct nature due largely to the well stratified atmospheric environment. The atmospheric transport of CO from biomass burning within this region is found to occur over intercontinental scales over numbers of days to more than a week. Three distinct synoptic circulation and transport classes are found to have occurred over southern Africa during the October 1994 MAPS experiment: (1) transport from South America and Africa to southern Africa associated with elevated MAPS measured CO (> 150 ppbv); (2) weakening anticyclonic transport from South America associated with moderate CO (< 150 ppbv and > 105 ppbv); and (3) transport from the high southern latitudes associated with low CO (<105 ppbv).

Garstang, Michael↗

An analytical model for the vorticity associated with a transverse jet

A two dimensional model is developed for a turbulent jet injected normally into a uniform crossflow, in which particular emphasis is placed on the contra-rotating vortex pair associated with the jet. By approximating the forces acting on each of the viscous vortices, equations governing the vortex spacing and downstream jet velocity are evolved. No empirical information is incorporated into this model. A description of the variation in total vortex strength is utilized in which vorticity generated by the jet's impulse dominates the farfield. Numerical solution of the governing equations yields results for the vortex trajectory, half spacing, varying circulation, and viscous core size that correlate quite well with experimental data and asymptotic relations. Based on these findings, we conclude that vortex separation and other important characteristics of the jet cross-section are two dimensional and viscous in nature. Hence it becomes possible to predict, on purely theoretical grounds, the behavior of the vortex pair and of the jet itself.

Karagozian, A. R.↗

Separating the Chemical and Dynamical Contributions to the Ozone Change

Statistical analysis is used to extract the sensitivity of ozone to changes in stratospheric chlorine due to emissions of chlorofluorcarbons from the observed ozone record. The statistical analysis relies on a model that accounts for natural variations in ozone including the seasonal cycle, the solar cycle, variations in aerosols due to volcanic eruption, and the quasi- biennial oscillation, A noise term includes contributions to ozone variability due to inter-annual variability in the stratospheric circulation not due to the quasi-biennial oscillation, The residual circulation varies due to variability in planetary wave forcing, and studies using meteorological analyses show that the build-up of ozone over the winter is correlated with the planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux. This variability in the residual circulation is not included in the statistical model, and contributes to the apparent ozone sensitivity to chlorine derived from observations for 1979 - 2000. We have investigated these relationships using multi-decadal simulations of our off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM). Our simulations use meteorological fields output from a 50 year simulation of a general circulation model (GCM). A 50 climatology specifies the sea surface temperatures to produce the GCM simulation. The CTM was used with these winds to produce two simulations, one in which the boundary conditions for chlorofluorcarbons and other source gases vary as specified for 1973-2022 by the Scenario A2 of the World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment, and the second with source gases fixed to their 1979 values. The same statistical analysis used to derive trends from observations is applied to the CTM output. When applied to the difference between the two simulations the statistical analysis provides a more precise measure of the ozone sensitivity to chlorine change. We are testing ways of including the interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model so that we can derive the same result from the Scenario A2 simulation as is obtained when the statistical analysis is applied to the difference between the two simulations. This should provide direction as to how to account for the changes in ozone due to interannual variability in the residual circulation in the statistical model that is applied to the observed data record.

Douglass, Anne R.↗

The Green Sahara: Climate Change, Hydrologic History and Human Occupation

Archaeology can provide insight into interactions of climate change and human activities in sensitive areas such as the Sahara, to the benefit of both disciplines. Such analyses can help set bounds on climate change projections, perhaps identify elements of tipping points, and provide constraints on models. The opportunity exists to more precisely constrain the relationship of natural solar and climate interactions, improving understanding of present and future anthropogenic forcing. We are beginning to explore the relationship of human occupation of the Sahara and long-term solar irradiance variations synergetic with changes in atmospheric-ocean circulation patterns. Archaeological and climate records for the last 12 K years are gaining adequate precision to make such comparisons possible. We employ a range of climate records taken over the globe (e.g. Antarctica, Greenland, Cariaco Basin, West African Ocean cores, records from caves) to identify the timing and spatial patterns affecting Saharan climate to compare with archaeological records. We see correlation in changing ocean temperature patterns approx. contemporaneous with drying of the Sahara approx. 6K years BP. The role of radar images and other remote sensing in this work includes providing a geographically comprehensive geomorphic overview of this key area. Such coverage is becoming available from the Japanese PALSAR radar system, which can guide field work to collect archaeological and climatic data to further constrain the climate change chronology and link to models. Our initial remote sensing efforts concentrate on the Gilf Kebir area of Egypt.

remote sensing↗

Life cycle assessment of a novel gas switching reforming for sustainable hydrogen production with CO2 capture

Gas switching reforming for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) presents an efficient, low-carbon hydrogen production method that incorporates integrated carbon capture, offering efficiency gains over traditional methods such as proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, steam methane reforming (SMR) and the newer method of chemical looping reforming (CLR). GSR-H2 has been demonstrated in lab scale which operates as an exothermic process that eliminates the need for additional natural gas combustion, using its own waste heat to generate process steam and partially offset energy usage through electricity production. Beyond its thermal self-sufficiency, GSR-H2 advances upon CLR by integrating all reaction stages within a single reactor cluster, eliminating the complexities of solid circulation, reducing capital costs, and enhancing overall process efficiency. This streamlined design simplifies scale-up and enables inherent CO2 separation with minimal energy penalty, making GSR-H2 a highly competitive pathway for low-carbon hydrogen production. This study presents the first life cycle assessment (LCA) of GSR-H2, offering a novel evaluation of this new process’s environmental impacts across diverse energy scenarios. Key findings reveal that in the renewables-powered scenario, GSR-H2 achieves a GWP of 2.77 kg CO2 eq per kg H2, a substantial improvement over SMR’s 10.4 kg CO2 eq and close to the low emissions of CLR (1.84 kg CO2 eq) and PEM electrolysis (1.85 kg CO2 eq). These results demonstrate GSR-H2’s competitive advantage as a lower-emission alternative, combining design simplicity and efficiency gains, especially in renewable-integrated systems. These results establish GSR-H2 as a competitive, scalable option for hydrogen production, particularly in decarbonization efforts.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thundercloud electrification models in atmospheric electricity and meteorology

A survey is presented of presently-available theoretical models. The models are classified into three main groups: (1) convection models, (2) precipitation models, and (3) general models. The strengths and weaknesses of the models, their dimensionalities and degrees of sophistication, the nature of their inputs and outputs, and the various specific charging mechanisms treated by them, are considered. In results obtained to date, the convection models predict no significant electrification enhancement based on conductivity gradients and convection alone, with the assumed air circulation patterns. Results of the precipitation models show that the initial electrification can occur rapidly and stably through noninductive collision mechanisms involving ice, and breakdown-strength electric fields can relatively easily be achieved subsequently through the collisional-inductive mechanism. A critical difficulty of the collision mechanisms is imprecise knowledge of relaxation times versus contact times, which can easily lead to overestimates of electrification. The general model results tend to support those of the precipitation models in emphasizing the high potential effectiveness of the collisional-inductive mechanism.

Parker, L. W.↗

Antarctic ozone - Meteoric control of HNO3

Atmospheric circulation leads to an accumulation of debris from meteors in the Antarctic stratosphere at the beginning of austral spring. The major component of meteoric material is alkaline, comprised predominantly of the oxides of magnesium and iron. These metals may neutralize the natural acidity of stratospheric aerosols, remove nitric acid from the gas phase, and bond it as metal nitrates in the aerosol phase. Removal of nitric acid vapor has been previously shown to be a critical link in the photochemical depletion of ozone in the Antarctic spring, by allowing for increased catalytic loss from chlorine and bromine.

Prather, Michael J.↗

The Change in Oceanic O2 Inventory Associated with Recent Global Warming

Oceans general circulation models predict that global warming may cause a decrease in the oceanic O2 inventory and an associated O2 outgassing. An independent argument is presented here in support of this prediction based on observational evidence of the ocean's biogeochemical response to natural warming. On time scales from seasonal to centennial, natural O2 flux/heat flux ratios are shown to occur in a range of 2 to 10 nmol O2 per Joule of warming, with larger ratios typically occurring at higher latitudes and over longer time scales. The ratios are several times larger than would be expected solely from the effect of heating on the O2 solubility, indicating that most of the O2 exchange is biologically mediated through links between heating and stratification. The change in oceanic O2 inventory through the 1990's is estimated to be 0.3 - 0.4 x 10(exp 14) mol O2 per year based on scaling the observed anomalous long-term ocean warming by natural O2 flux/heating ratios and allowing for uncertainty due to decadal variability. Implications are discussed for carbon budgets based on observed changes in atmospheric O2/N2 ratio and based on observed changes in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon.

Keeling, Ralph↗

Global measurements of wind fields using the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) on the Earth Observing System (EOS)

The technology for measuring global wind fields in space by the Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) to be flown on the Earth Observing System (EOS) is discussed. Studies initiated by NASA to determine the feasibility of using Doppler lidar from a platform in space to measure the wind globally have shown the general feasibility of the technique and have identified the technological problems that need to be resolved. Among the lidar systems being evaluated, CO2 coherent detection lidar is given special consideration. A comprehensive research program, the Global Backscatter Experiment, has been established to study global distribution of naturally occurring atmospheric aerosols that provide signal return at the wavelengths used by the techniques under consideration. Wind profiles from space will provide essential information for advancing the skill of numerical weather prediction, furthering the present knowledge of the large-scale atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics, and of global biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles.

Fitzjarrald, Daniel E.↗

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) Dataset

The NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset is comprised of downscaled climate projections that are derived from 21 General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and across two of the four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Each of the climate projections includes daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation for the periods from 1950 through 2100 and the spatial resolution is 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km by 25 km). The GDDP dataset has received warm welcome from the science community in conducting studies of climate change impacts at local to regional scales, but a comprehensive evaluation of its uncertainties is still missing. In this study, we apply the Perfect Model Experiment framework (Dixon et al. 2016) to quantify the key sources of uncertainties from the observational baseline dataset, the downscaling algorithm, and some intrinsic assumptions (e.g., the stationary assumption) inherent to the statistical downscaling techniques. We developed a set of metrics to evaluate downscaling errors resulted from bias-correction ("quantile-mapping"), spatial disaggregation, as well as the temporal-spatial non-stationarity of climate variability. Our results highlight the spatial disaggregation (or interpolation) errors, which dominate the overall uncertainties of the GDDP dataset, especially over heterogeneous and complex terrains (e.g., mountains and coastal area). In comparison, the temporal errors in the GDDP dataset tend to be more constrained. Our results also indicate that the downscaled daily precipitation also has relatively larger uncertainties than the temperature fields, reflecting the rather stochastic nature of precipitation in space. Therefore, our results provide insights in improving statistical downscaling algorithms and products in the future.

general circulation model (GCM)↗

Dust-dynamic feedbacks in the Martian atmosphere: Surface dust lifting

Numerical models have been developed to study surface dust lifting in the Martian atmosphere. The present model is comprised of interactively coupled 3-D dynamical and aerosol transport/microphysical models. The nature of possible feedbacks between surface dust lifting and the amplification/damping of near-surface wind and thermal fields and their implications for additional lifting is investigated. These studies have examined large scale Martian topography for its impact upon the ability of the atmospheric circulation to lift dust from the surface, and the particular component(s) responsible for the lifting (e.g. overturning circulation, thermal tides, baroclinic waves). Analogous experiments in which the lifted dust is radiatively inactive (passive tracer) have been conducted to act as a control against which feedbacks are defined.

Murphy, James R.↗

The nature of symmetric instability and its similarity to convective and inertial instability

It is presently noted that, even for the case of fully nonlinear viscous motion, there exists a local similarity among symmetric, buoyancy or convective, and inertial instabilities. The most unstable slope angles for symmetric instability are analyzed through consideration of parcel energetics; the results obtained suggest that qualitatively conditional symmetric instability circulations will be slantwise, and will lie between the moist and most unstable and the dry and least stable slopes of the basic state.

Xu, Q.↗

The Shortwave Cloud-SST Feedback Amplifies Multi-Decadal Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends: Implications for Observed Cooling

Climate models struggle to produce sea surface temperature (SST) gradient trends in the tropical Pacific comparable to those seen recently in nature. Here, we find that the magnitude of the cloud-SST feedback in the subtropical Southeast Pacific is correlated across models with the magnitude of Eastern Pacific multi-decadal SST variability. A heat-budget analysis reveals coupling between cloud-radiative effects, circulation, and SST gradients in driving multi-decadal variability in the Eastern Pacific. Using this relationship and observed feedback estimates, we find that internal Eastern Pacific SST variability is underestimated in most models. Adjusting for model bias increases the likelihood of generating a cooling trend at least as large as observations in preindustrial control simulations by ~56% on average. If models underestimate climate “noise,” as our results suggest, this bias should be accounted for when attributing the relative importance of forced versus unforced changes in the climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Capillary Pumped Loop (CPL) GAS experiment G-471

The Capillary Pumped Loop (CPL) experiment, 6-471 is a thermal control system with high density heat acquisition and transport capability. The CPL consists of two capillary pumped evaporators with integral heaters, a fluid loop charged with ammonia (NH3), a condenser plate (heat sink), and various control electronics. The purpose of the experiment is to demonstrate the capability of a capillary pumped system under zero gravity conditions for use in the thermal control of large scientific instruments, advanced orbiting spacecraft, and space station components. A unique feature of the CPL is the capillary pumps, which contain no moving parts. Each pump contains a wick of porous material which is saturated with the working fluid (anhydrous ammonia). As heat is added to the fluid, it evaporates and travels to the condenser, thus transporting the heat (via the latent heat of vaporization) from the heat source to its sink at nearly a constant temperature. The evaporation process produces the pressure gradient or pumping action that circulates the fluid. This is the same principal that plants and trees use to transport water and nutrients from their roots to their leaves against gravity. The difference is that the CPL employs a closed system to return the fluid directly to the pumps, whereas "Mother Nature'' has an open system where the fluid is indirectly returned to the roots by condensation of water from the clouds in the form of rain. It should be noted that the CPL experiment was the first flight of a thermal control system of this type. It was also the first shuttle experiment from the Space Station Advanced Development Program.

Dan Butler↗

The nature of symmetric instability and its similarity to convective and inertial instability

It is shown that there exists a local similarity among SI (Symmetric Instability), BI (Buoyancy or Convective Instability), and II (Inertial Instability) even for fully nonlinear viscous motion. The most unstable slope angles for SI and Moist SI motions are analyzed based on parcel energetics. These considerations also suggest qualitatively that CSI (Conditional SI) circulations will be slantwise and lie between the moist most unstable slope and dry least stable slope of the basic state.

Xu, Q.↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗