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Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) and Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) for Disaster Resilience

"Earth systems have now been observed continuously for more than 50 years, not only from space but also from airplanes, balloons and in-situ sensors. With the addition of commercial remote sensing providers, many more Internet-of-Things sensors and new NASA and international observatories being planned, these incredible amounts of data will soon be augmented by even larger amounts of diverse data and therefore will become more and more difficult to access, integrate, understand and utilize. At the same time, because of climate change and its impacts, in order to predict, manage, and mitigate the effects of extreme science events and disasters, the information produced by all of this data needs to be optimized, organized and analyzed in such a way that it can be utilized by traditional as well as many new non-traditional users. This calls for the development of observing systems that are agile, coordinated and responsive to events of interest, and for information systems to be dynamic, interactive and fast. With these objectives in mind, the Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program has been developing technologies that will allow for the development of Novel Observing Strategies (NOS) in a distributed, coordinated fashion (i.e., similar to an “Internet-of-Earth-Things”), as well as for the development of novel information systems or Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT) that will build a digital replica of the past and current states of the Earth systems, will derive forecasts of future states under nominal assumptions and will also offer the capability to investigate many hypothetical evolution scenarios under varying impact assumptions. Both NOS and ESDT will be facilitated by the unprecedented advances of Artificial Intelligence technologies, especially Machine Learning (ML), for extracting relevant information from these large amounts of data, for fusing and assimilating diverse data together and for running complex models faster. Together NOS and ESDT will help build the capabilities needed to anticipate, predict and mitigate the effects of future disasters."

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

X-Ray and Optical Observations of A 0535+26

We present recent contemporaneous X-ray and optical observations of the Be/X-ray binary system A 0535+26 with the Fermi/Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) and several ground-based observatories. These new observations are put into the context of the rich historical data (since 1978) and discussed in terms of the neutron-star-Be-disk interaction. The Be circumstellar disk was exceptionally large just before the 2009 December giant outburst, which may explain the origin of the unusual recent X-ray activity of this source. We found a peculiar evolution of the pulse profile during this giant outburst, with the two main components evolving in opposite ways with energy. A hard 30-70 mHz X-ray quasi-periodic oscillation was detected with GBM during this 2009 December giant outburst. It becomes stronger with increasing energy and disappears at energies below 25 keV. In the long term a strong optical/X-ray correlation was found for this system, however in the medium term the Halpha equivalent width and the V-band brightness showed an anti-correlation after 2002 August. Each giant X-ray outburst occurred during a decline phase of the optical brightness, while the H showed a strong emission. In late 2010 and before the 2011 February outburst, rapid V/R variations are observed in the strength of the two peaks of the H line. These had a period of 25 days and we suggest the presence of a global one-armed oscillation to explain this scenario. A general pattern might be inferred, where the disk becomes weaker and shows V/R variability beginning 6 months following a giant outburst.

Camero-Arranz, A.↗

Dan Goldin Presentation: Pathway to the Future

In the "Path to the Future" presentation held at NASA's Langley Center on March 31, 1999, NASA's Administrator Daniel S. Goldin outlined the future direction and strategies of NASA in relation to the general space exploration enterprise. NASA's Vision, Future System Characteristics, Evolutions of Engineering, and Revolutionary Changes are the four main topics of the presentation. In part one, the Administrator talks in detail about NASA's vision in relation to the NASA Strategic Activities that are Space Science, Earth Science, Human Exploration, and Aeronautics & Space Transportation. Topics discussed in this section include: space science for the 21st century, flying in mars atmosphere (mars plane), exploring new worlds, interplanetary internets, earth observation and measurements, distributed information-system-in-the-sky, science enabling understanding and application, space station, microgravity, science and exploration strategies, human mars mission, advance space transportation program, general aviation revitalization, and reusable launch vehicles. In part two, he briefly talks about the future system characteristics. He discusses major system characteristics like resiliencey, self-sufficiency, high distribution, ultra-efficiency, and autonomy and the necessity to overcome any distance, time, and extreme environment barriers. Part three of Mr. Goldin's talk deals with engineering evolution, mainly evolution in the Computer Aided Design (CAD)/Computer Aided Engineering (CAE) systems. These systems include computer aided drafting, computerized solid models, virtual product development (VPD) systems, networked VPD systems, and knowledge enriched networked VPD systems. In part four, the last part, the Administrator talks about the need for revolutionary changes in communication and networking areas of a system. According to the administrator, the four major areas that need cultural changes in the creativity process are human-centered computing, an infrastructure for distributed collaboration, rapid synthesis and simulation tools, and life-cycle integration and validation. Mr. Goldin concludes his presentation with the following maxim "Collaborate, Integrate, Innovate or Stagnate and Evaporate." He also answers some questions after the presentation.

Source record↗

Sensor requirements for Earth and planetary observations

Future generations of Earth and planetary remote sensing instruments will require extensive developments of new long-wave and very long-wave infrared detectors. The upcoming NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) will carry a suite of instruments to monitor a wide range of atmospheric and surface parameters with an unprecedented degree of accuracy for a period of 10 to 15 years. These instruments will observe Earth over a wide spectral range extending from the visible to nearly 17 micrometers with a moderate to high spectral and spacial resolution. In addition to expected improvements in communication bandwidth and both ground and on-board computing power, these new sensor systems will need large two-dimensional detector arrays. Such arrays exist for visible wavelengths and, to a lesser extent, for short wavelength infrared systems. The most dramatic need is for new Long Wavelength Infrared (LWIR) and Very Long Wavelength Infrared (VLWIR) detector technologies that are compatible with area array readout devices and can operate in the temperature range supported by long life, low power refrigerators. A scientific need for radiometric and calibration accuracies approaching 1 percent translates into a requirement for detectors with excellent linearity, stability and insensitivity to operating conditions and space radiation. Current examples of the kind of scientific missions these new thermal IR detectors would enhance in the future include instruments for Earth science such as Orbital Volcanological Observations (OVO), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), and Spectroscopy in the Atmosphere using Far Infrared Emission (SAFIRE). Planetary exploration missions such as Cassini also provide examples of instrument concepts that could be enhanced by new IR detector technologies.

Chahine, Moustafa T.↗

Use of EOS Data in AWIPS for Weather Forecasting

Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on real time data and modeling products for forecast preparation and dissemination of significant weather information to the public. The synthesis of this information (observations and model products) by the meteorologist is facilitated by a decision support system to display and integrate the information in a useful fashion. For the NWS this system is called Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). Over the last few years NASA has launched a series of new Earth Observation Satellites (EOS) for climate monitoring that include several instruments that provide high-resolution measurements of atmospheric and surface features important for weather forecasting and analysis. The key to the utilization of these unique new measurements by the NWS is the real time integration of the EOS data into the AWIPS system. This is currently being done in the Huntsville and Birmingham NWS Forecast Offices under the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Program. This paper describes the use of near real time MODIS and AIRS data in AWIPS to improve the detection of clouds, moisture variations, atmospheric stability, and thermal signatures that can lead to significant weather development. The paper and the conference presentation will focus on several examples where MODIS and AIRS data have made a positive impact on forecast accuracy. The results of an assessment of the utility of these products for weather forecast improvement made at the Huntsville NWS Forecast Office will be presented.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗

ISSARS Aerosol Database : an Incorporation of Atmospheric Particles into a Universal Tool to Simulate Remote Sensing Instruments

The Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote Sensing (ISSARS) entered its third and final year of development with an overall goal of providing a unified tool to simulate active and passive space borne atmospheric remote sensing instruments. These simulations focus on the atmosphere ranging from UV to microwaves. ISSARS handles all assumptions and uses various models on scattering and microphysics to fill the gaps left unspecified by the atmospheric models to create each instrument's measurements. This will help benefit mission design and reduce mission cost, create efficient implementation of multi-instrument/platform Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), and improve existing models as well as new advanced models in development. In this effort, various aerosol particles are incorporated into the system, and a simulation of input wavelength and spectral refractive indices related to each spherical test particle(s) generate its scattering properties and phase functions. These atmospheric particles being integrated into the system comprise the ones observed by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer(MISR) and by the Multiangle SpectroPolarimetric Imager(MSPI). In addition, a complex scattering database generated by Prof. Ping Yang (Texas A&M) is also incorporated into this aerosol database. Future development with a radiative transfer code will generate a series of results that can be validated with results obtained by the MISR and MSPI instruments; nevertheless, test cases are simulated to determine the validity of various plugin libraries used to determine or gather the scattering properties of particles studied by MISR and MSPI, or within the Single-scattering properties of tri-axial ellipsoidal mineral dust particles database created by Prof. Ping Yang.

Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote ↗

Asteroid surface compositions from infrared spectroscopic observations - Results and prospects

Advances in IR detector technology, the increased availability of large aperture telescopes, and the techniques of Fourier transform spectroscopy now permit IR (with wavelengths greater than 1 micron) spectroscopic observations of asteroid surfaces. Asteroids already observed include Ceres, Vesta, and Eros. These initial results demonstrate that such studies can contribute new data concerning asteroid compositions. Some of the most diagnostic features of mineral spectra are in the IR spectral region, and for featureless spectra characterized only by slopes the extension of the spectral reflectivity curve into the IR provides tighter constraints on possible mineralogies. A systematic study of additional asteroids should exploit even further this new observational link to problems of meteorite origin and solar system evolution.

Larson, H. P.↗

Meniscus Imaging for Crystal-Growth Control

Silicon crystal growth monitored by new video system reduces operator stress and improves conditions for observation and control of growing process. System optics produce greater magnification vertically than horizontally, so entire meniscus and melt is viewed with high resolution in both width and height dimensions.

Sachs, E. M.↗

A three-dimensional solution for the orbit of Capella

We have combined new radial velocities of both components of Capella, obtained at McDonald and Kitt Peak, with those recently published by Batten et al. (1991), and with interferometric observations, to derive a new 3D orbit of the Capella system. Our results agree well with those of Bagnuolo and Hartkopf (1989), and yield masses accurate to +/- 3 percent. The cooler component, which is the fainter star visually but the more luminous one bolometrically, is the more massive. The mass ratio differs from unity by more than four times its uncertainty, and this lends strong support to the hypothesis that the cool component has begun to consume its core helium. If so, it may be possible to reconcile, qualitatively at least, the orbit's circularity and the stars' rotational velocities with theories of synchronization and circularization, such as that of the Tassouls (1992).

Barlow, D. J.↗

An integrated strategy for the planetary sciences: 1995 - 2010

In 1992, the National Research Council's Space Studies Board charged its Committee on Planetary and Lunar Exploration (COMPLEX) to: (1) summarize current understanding of the planets and the solar system; (2) pose the most significant scientific questions that remain; and (3) establish the priorities for scientific exploration of the planets for the period from 1995 to 2010. The broad scientific goals of solar system exploration include: (1) understanding how physical and chemical processes determine the major characteristics of the planets, and thereby help us to understand the operation of Earth; (2) learning about how planetary systems originate and evolve; (3) determining how life developed in the solar system, particularly on Earth, and in what ways life modifies planetary environments; and (4) discovering how relatively simple, basic laws of physics and chemistry can lead to the diverse phenomena observed in complex systems. COMPLEX maintains that the most useful new programs to emphasize in the period from 1995 to 2010 are detailed investigations of comets, Mars, and Jupiter and an intensive search for, and characterization of, extrasolar planets.

Source record↗

Chandra Imaging of the X-Ray Nebula Powered by Pulsar B1509-58

We present observations with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory of the pulsar wind nebula (PWN) powered by the energetic young pulsar B1509-58. These data confirm the complicated morphology of the system indicated by previous observations, and in addition reveal several new components to the nebula. The overall PWN shows a clear symmetry axis oriented at a position angle 150" +- 5" (north through east), which we argue corresponds to the pulsar spin axis. We show that a previously identified radio feature matches well with the overall extent of the X-ray PWN, and propose the former as the long-sought radio nebula powered by the pulsar. We further identify a bright collimated feature, at least 4' long, lying along the nebula's main symmetry axis; we interpret this feature as a physical outflow from the pulsar, and infer a velocity for this jet of greater than 0.2c. The lack of any observed counterjet implies that the pulsar spin axis is inclined at -30" to the line of sight, contrary to previous estimates made from lower resolution data. We also identify a variety of compact features close to the pulsar. A pair of semicircular X-ray arcs lie 17" and 30" to the north of the pulsar; the latter arc shows a highly polarized radio counterpart. We show that these features can be interpreted as ion compression wisps in a particle-dominated equatorial flow, and use their properties to infer a ratio of electromagnetic to particle energy in pairs at the wind shock 0.005, similar to that seen in the Crab Nebula. We further identify several compact knots seen very close to the pulsar; we use these to infer cr < 0.003 at a separation from the pulsar of 0.1 pc.

Gaensler, B. M.↗

Long Term Surface Salinity Measurements

Our long-term goal is to establish a reliable system for monitoring surface salinity around the global ocean. Salinity is a strong indicator of the freshwater cycle and has a great influence on upper ocean stratification. Global salinity measurements have potential to improve climate forecasts if an observation system can be developed. This project is developing a new internal field conductivity cell that can be protected from biological fouling for two years. Combined with a temperature sensor, this foul-proof cell can be deployed widely on surface drifters. A reliable in-situ network of surface salinity sensors will be an important adjunct to the salinity sensing satellite AQUARIUS to be deployed by NASA in 2009. A new internal-field conductivity cell has been developed by N Brown, along with new electronics. This sensor system has been combined with a temperature sensor to make a conductivity - temperature (UT) sensor suitable for deployment on drifters. The basic sensor concepts have been proven on a high resolution CTD. A simpler (lower cost) circuit has been built for this application. A protection mechanism for the conductivity cell that includes antifouling protection has also been designed and built. Mr. A.Walsh of our commercial partner E-Paint has designed and delivered time-release formulations of antifoulants for our application. Mr. G. Williams of partner Clearwater Instrumentation advised on power and communication issues and supplied surface drifters for testing.

Schmitt, Raymond W.↗

Resource Prospector: An Update on the Lunar Volatiles Prospecting and ISRU Demonstration Mission

Over the last two decades a wealth of new observations of the moon have demonstrated a lunar water system dramatically more complex and rich than was deduced following the Apollo era. Lunar water, and other volatiles, have the potential to be a valuable or enabling resource for future exploration. The NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) have selected a lunar volatiles prospecting mission for a concept study and potential flight in CY2021. The mission includes a rover-borne payload that (1) can locate surface and near-subsurface volatiles, (2) excavate and analyze samples of the volatile-bearing regolith, and (3) demonstrate the form, extractability and usefulness of the materials.

Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directora↗

Resource Prospector: An Update on the Lunar Volatiles Prospecting and ISRU Demonstration Mission

Over the last two decades a wealth of new observations of the moon have demonstrated a lunar water system dramatically more complex and rich than was deduced following the Apollo era. Lunar water, and other volatiles, have the potential to be a valuable or enabling resource for future exploration. The NASA Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) have selected a lunar volatiles prospecting mission for a concept study and potential flight in CY2021. The mission includes a rover-borne payload that (1) can locate surface and near-subsurface volatiles, (2) excavate and analyze samples of the volatile- bearing regolith, and (3) demonstrate the form, extractability and usefulness of the materials.

Moon↗

The Importance of Earth Observations and Data Collaboration within Environmental Intelligence Supporting Arctic Research

Within the IARPC Collaboration Team activities of 2016, Arctic in-situ and remote earth observations advanced topics such as :1) exploring the role for new and innovative autonomous observing technologies in the Arctic; 2) advancing catalytic national and international community based observing efforts in support of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region; and 3) enhancing the use of discovery tools for observing system collaboration such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Arctic Environmental Response Management Application (ERMA) and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project geo reference visualization decision support and exploitation internet based tools. Critical to the success of these earth observations for both in-situ and remote systems is the emerging of new and innovative data collection technologies and comprehensive modeling as well as enhanced communications and cyber infrastructure capabilities which effectively assimilate and dissemination many environmental intelligence products in a timely manner. The Arctic Collaborative Environment (ACE) project is well positioned to greatly enhance user capabilities for accessing, organizing, visualizing, sharing and producing collaborative knowledge for the Arctic.

Casas, Joseph↗

Dynamics in Layer Models of Solid Flame Propagation

Self-propagating high-temperature synthesis (SHS) is a process in which combustion waves, e.g., "solid flames", which are considered here, are employed to synthesize desired materials. Like many other systems, SHS is a pattern forming system. The problem of describing experimentally observed patterns and of predicting new, as yet unobserved, patterns continues to attract the attention of scientists and mathematicians due to the fundamental significance of the phenomena in combustion in particular, and in nonlinear science in general. Here, we analyze the dynamics of solid flame propagation in a 2D region by considering the region to be composed of parallel, identical layers aligned along the direction of propagation and having thermal contact. Each layer is then described by wave propagation in 1D, with the transverse Laplacian replaced by a term describing heat exchange between neighboring layers. This configuration is the simplest model of a 2D system because it accounts, in a simple way, for the principal feature of the problem, i.e., heat exchange between neighbors in the transverse direction. For simplicity, we describe the situation for two layers. Because the layers are identical, uniformly propagating waves in each layer must be identical, independent of the heat exchange rate alpha. When the Zeldovich number Z exceeds a critical value Z(sub c), which depends on alpha, uniformly propagating waves become unstable. The stability diagram for the two coupled layers reproduces that for the full 2D problem after appropriate identification of parameters in the two problems. Depending on parameter values, we determine three different steady-state dynamical behaviors (though additional behaviors are also expected to occur). The three behaviors are: (i) waves in each layer which pulsate in phase as they propagate, so that together they form a single pulsating propagating wave; (ii) the waves in each layer are no longer identical, and antiphase pulsations occur, with the two waves alternately advancing and receding as they propagate. This wave is the analog of the spinning wave on the surface of a circular cylinder; (iii) finally, there is a region of bistability between the in phase and antiphase waves. with each having its own domain of attraction, so that which of the two behaviors occur depends on the condition of initiation of the wave. The results of our computations indicate a qualitative similarity in the behavior of combustion waves in the layer model and in the full 2D model. Specifically, due to the similarity between the small alpha wave behavior in the layer model and the large diameter behavior in the model of waves on the surface of a cylinder, we are able to predict the behavior of the mean velocity for the waves on the cylinder, where computations of the full problem can be rather difficult. We also compute solutions for three or more layers. The results of our computations prompt us to predict that, while planar uniformly propagating waves are unstable, the wave will be quasiplanar, i.e., the resulting spinning waves have very low amplitude hot spots, and travel with the velocity close to that of the uniformly propagating wave. Such waves may be difficult to distinguish from uniformly propagating waves in experiments. We also find that for both the layer model and full 2D problem, steady-state time-dependent waves, e.g., pulsating and spinning wave, have a conserved quantity H which characterizes the excess energy in the wave, just as in the case of uniformly propagating waves. The quantity H, which is generated by dissipation, does not vary in time and is proportional to the diffusivity and caloricity of the system, and inversely proportional to the mean wave velocity.

Aldushin, A. P.↗