Assessing the Perception and Comprehension of Adversarial Cyber Activity in Operational Technology Environments Using Bayesian Networks.
Abstract not provided.
Maccarone, Lee↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Operational Assessment”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for PIP-II Project at Fermilab
The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) at Fermilab represents a significant advancement in the quest to answer some of the most profound questions about our universe using the world's most intense high-energy neutrino beam. The project requires the construction of a new addition to the Fermilab accelerator complex – an 800-MeV high-intensity superconducting linear accelerator. Ensuring the safety and regulatory compliance of this ambitious project is paramount, necessitating thorough dose rate assessments under both normal operational and accidental scenarios to align with the Fermilab Radiological Control Manual (FRCM) standards. Our approach included a shielding optimization used for the simulations with the Monte Carlo code MARS [1,2,3] to incorporate new magnet and collimator designs, essential for reflecting the current state of PIP-II infrastructure. The implementation of high-resolution detector planes, despite their computational demands, enabled us to gather detailed radiation field data crucial for optimizing shielding configurations. To overcome the significant computational demands, we developed a branching code that drastically reduced simulation runtimes while maintaining statistical integrity. This was achieved through geometry splitting and the application of Russian Roulette techniques, tailored to prioritize regions of interest based on predefined importances and weight limits.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
Optimization Studies of Radiation Shielding for PIP-II Project at Fermilab
The Proton Improvement Plan-II (PIP-II) at Fermilab represents a significant advancement in the quest to answer some of the most profound questions about our universe using the world's most intense high-energy neutrino beam. The project requires the construction of a new addition to the Fermilab accelerator complex – an 800-MeV high-intensity superconducting linear accelerator. Ensuring the safety and regulatory compliance of this ambitious project is paramount, necessitating thorough dose rate assessments under both normal operational and accidental scenarios to align with the Fermilab Radiological Control Manual (FRCM) standards. Our approach included a shielding optimization used for the simulations with the Monte Carlo code MARS [1,2,3] to incorporate new magnet and collimator designs, essential for reflecting the current state of PIP-II infrastructure. The implementation of high-resolution detector planes, despite their computational demands, enabled us to gather detailed radiation field data crucial for optimizing shielding configurations. To overcome the significant computational demands, we developed a branching code that drastically reduced simulation runtimes while maintaining statistical integrity. This was achieved through geometry splitting and the application of Russian Roulette techniques, tailored to prioritize regions of interest based on predefined importances and weight limits.
Makovec, Alajos↗
Feasibility Analyses for the Microgrid of the Mountain in the Cordillera Central Region of Puerto Rico
Distributed energy resource (DER) development can benefit communities through improvement of access to reliable electricity and a resilient energy system. Many place-specific considerations must be accounted for when designing electrical systems with co-located generation and loads. This paper presents an overview of four studies focusing on different aspects for regional DER development in the Cordillera Central region of Puerto Rico, including a grid and load stability study with the introduction of solar energy generation, microgrid design based on the solar resource in the area, resilience considerations during power outage scenarios, and qualitative risk aspects for components in the microgrid. Additionally, a conceptual substation microgrid analysis is conducted using the Microgrid Design Toolkit (MDT) to evaluate trade-offs between cost and energy availability, providing insights into optimal design strategies. A microgrid resilience assessment is performed using the Resilient Nodal Cluster Analysis Tool (ReNCAT) to identify critical loads and evaluates their accessibility during outages, emphasizing the importance of community needs. Finally, a qualitative risk assessment utilizing Hazard and Operability Analysis (HAZOP) methods highlights potential hazards and mitigations for microgrid components, ensuring robust system design and operation.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Analyzing Potential Failures and Effects in a Pilot-Scale Biomass Preprocessing Facility for Improved Reliability
This study demonstrates a failure identification methodology applied to a preprocessing facility generating conversion-ready feedstocks from biomass meeting conversion process critical quality attribute (CQA) specifications. Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) was used as an industrially relevant risk analysis approach to evaluate a logging residue preprocessing system to prepare feedstock for pyrolysis conversion. Risk evaluations considered both system-level and operation unit-level assessments considering process efficiency, product quality, cost, sustainability, and safety. Key outputs included estimations of semi-quantitative risk scores for each failure, identification of the failure impacts, identification of failure causes associated with material attributes and process parameters, ranking success rates of failure detection methods, and speculation of potential mitigation strategies for decreasing failure risk scores. Results showed that deviations from moisture specifications had cascading consequences for other CQAs along with process safety implications. Failures linked to fixed carbon specifications carried the highest risk scores for product quality and process efficiency impacts. As increased throughput can be inversely related to meeting product quality specifications; achieving throughput and other material-based CQAs simultaneously will likely require system optimization or prioritization based on system economics. Ultimately, this work successfully demonstrates FMEA as a risk analysis approach for other bioenergy process systems.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework: Preprint
As more variable renewable energy sources are added to the grid, the critical role of hydropower as a reliable baseline and firming resource is rapidly growing. However, the U.S hydropower fleet is not fully prepared to face modern issues such as cybersecurity threats. Hydropower accounts for 37% of U.S. utility-scale renewable electricity but is challenged by diverse infrastructure and legacy devices that predate modern security practices. While new cybersecurity solutions cannot simply be added to current hydropower generation and operation technologies, custom cybersecurity assessments can reveal system-specific threats and risk probabilities and identify mitigating enhancements.
cybersecurity valuation↗
Use of Historical EM Practices and Policies for Management of Cleanup Program and Address GAO Concerns - 20222
As Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management (EM) program policies and management practices are revised over time, it might be useful to periodically reflect on the DOE EM program's past to identify practices that have worked and those that might be appropriate for possible reuse in the future. An added impetus to examine alternative approaches is the recent Government Accountability Office (GAO) report entitled 'Nuclear Waste Cleanup - DOE Could Improve Program and Project Management by Better Classifying Work and Following Leading Practices.' The February 2019 GAO report states that EM categorizes most of its work in a way that does not adequately involve independent experts and DOE senior leadership. It also noted that EM has not followed leading practices for program and project management that could help keep the cleanup efforts on schedule and control costs. The GAO report recommended that EM, working with DOE Office of Project Management (PM): - Establish requirements and then assess EM's ongoing operations activities to determine if some activities should be reclassified as capital asset projects based on these newly established requirements. - Review and revise EM's 2017 cleanup policy to include program management leading practices related to scope, cost, schedule performance, and independent reviews. - Update the cleanup policy to require that earned value management (EVM) systems be maintained and used in a way that follows EVM best practices. - Develop a policy to ensure that work is categorized as level of effort (LOE) only in appropriate, specified circumstances, such as when work is not measurable or when measurement is impractical. - Integrate EVM data into EM's performance metrics for operations activities. To assist with improving program performance and implementing audit recommendations, this paper reviewed past successful cleanups such as Weldon Springs, Rocky Flats, Fernald, Ashtabula, Battelle Columbus (abs, and other historical resources and people with experience during the early years of EM program. As such, there are several past practices which may well be suited for reuse today. Some of these practices include: - In 1990's, as the DOE EM cleanup program, known as Environmental Restoration came into effect, the known cleanup scope at each geographic location or site was organized into four levels ranging from overall site-wide cleanup effort to the individual 'release sites', providing high granularity to the program. - The cleanup program was organized by geography (Northwest, Southwest, Eastern Area Programs, etc.). These 'sub-program' managers provided a degree of Headquarters oversight and management allowing upper management (EM-1, 2, and 3) to focus on major decisions and issues. - Budget levels at selected cleanup sites were funded above 'minimum-safety' levels to accelerate actual cleanup work. - Past practice utilized EVM techniques and uniform EM oversight over all discrete project-like activities, providing for a coordinated cleanup effort. - EM managed LOE activities using benchmarking and best in class management practice techniques to help manage costs. - EM managed and reviewed entire site cleanup baselines, not only individual projects, focusing on a successful overall outcome. - Sites had a 'Road map' or 'Management Action Plan' that provided the overall strategy or plan for that site's cleanup - this helped with understanding and coordination of efforts. - EM had a robust lessons-learned program and database to capture and transmit worthy ideas. - EM had well-structured cleanup baseline change control policies to control cost and schedule changes, at the contractor and higher Headquarters levels. Finally, some of the GAO observations may be valid, however it is not clear as to their extent. For example, for some operation types of work, the use of the Level of Effort (LOE) earned value method to track progress may be appropriate. Also, to ensure independence of thought, and to obtain useful insight on past practices, it may be suitable to have former EM employees to assist with understanding past practices or to verify that activities have been properly identified. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants
The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants
Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Planning for the storm: Considering renewable energy for critical infrastructure resilience
This study uses the renewable energy optimization model to assess three critical facilities in North Carolina. Techno-economic results were then compared to analyses completed for critical facilities in California and New York to assess energy system cost effectiveness. Though solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays are cost-effective across each of the three North Carolina facilities, adopting battery storage to enable PV to operate with existing diesel generators in a hybrid energy system reduces the economic value of the system. This is in contrast to more economically viable systems in California and New York. All of these systems also offer unquantified resilience benefits by extending operation from hours to weeks across the facilities. If decision makers were able to value the resilience benefits offered by each system or utility rate structures were changed to incentivize battery storage during normal operations, it would impact these assessments. Even so, this analysis provides decision makers a key set of cost benchmarks when considering how they might improve resilience at their critical operations.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow
As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Comparing Constant and Transient Membrane Transport Parameters for Use in Wave Desalination Models
Directly pressurizing seawater for desalination with reverse osmosis membranes via wave motion is a promising and sustainable method for producing freshwater in coastal regions. However, such a system could result in significant pressure fluctuations and a departure from conventional steady-state desalination operations. This study sought to assess if membrane transport parameters (apparent water and salt permeability) should be modeled as transient or constant in solution–diffusion-based modeling efforts of dynamically operated desalination systems, such as those coupled to wave power. Two approaches were used to model membrane transport parameters: one considered each parameter to be a function of the net driving pressure of the system, and the other assumed they were constant across all conditions. A pilot-scale system was used to conduct steady-state and controlled ramping experiments. Data from steady-state experiments were used to calculate transient and constant transport parameters. Parameter combinations were used in a simulation model to predict water flux and effective permeate salinity, and simulation outcomes were compared against experimental ramping results. The transient relationships for both water and salt permeability produced the most accurate results for water flux and comparable results for effective permeate salinity. Development of such relationships would be unique to a specific system but could be valuable in modeling wave-driven desalination systems across the wide range of operating conditions they experience.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
An Assessment of the Usability of Machine Learning Based Tools for the Security Operations Center
Gartner, a large research and advisory company, anticipates that by 2024 80% of security operation centers (SOCs) will use machine learning (ML) based solutions to enhance their operations. 1 1 https://www.ciodive.com/news/how-data-science-tools-can-lighten-the-load-for-cybersecurity-teams/572209/ In light of such widespread adoption, it is vital for the research community to identify and address usability concerns. This work presents the results of the first in situ usability assessment of ML-based tools. With the support of the US Navy, we leveraged the national cyber range-a large, air-gapped cyber testbed equipped with state-of-the-art network and user emulation capabilities-to study six US Naval SOC analysts' usage of two tools. Our analysis identified several serious usability issues, including multiple violations of established usability heuristics for user interface design. We also discovered that analysts lacked a clear mental model of how these tools generate scores, resulting in mistrust a and/or misuse of the tools themselves. Surprisingly, we found no correlation between analysts' level of education or years of experience and their performance with either tool, suggesting that other factors such as prior background knowledge or personality play a significant role in ML-based tool usage. Our findings demonstrate that ML-based security tool vendors must put a renewed focus on working with analysts, both experienced and inexperienced, to ensure that their systems are usable and useful in real-world security operations settings.
Oesch, T↗
The Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework
Hydropower remains one of the strongest forms of renewable energy generation methods. It is crucial to address the increasing risks associated with the rapid digitization. The push towards decarbonization also factors in the need to ensure security and resilience for grid-connected renewable energy resources. This report summarizes the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office's effort to develop a cybersecurity valuation methodology that assists hydropower stakeholders in assessing risks associated with plan operations and gathers valuation guidance through a web-based applicaiton. The Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework delivers a platform for industry members to perform self assessments and make informed decisions on their cybersecurity investments.
CVF↗
Considering Climate Change Scenarios in Site Resilience Planning
This paper was prepared in support of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Federal Energy Management Program. The paper serves as a resource for site-level personnel who are performing energy and water resilience planning at their sites and who need to identify and incorporate data that may help them assess risks to infrastructure and operations as a result of future climate change impacts. Specifically, the paper is a high-level look at available scenarios of future climate that can be incorporated into assessments based on U.S. regional models.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework
Hydropower remains one of the strongest forms of renewable energy generation methods. It is crucial to address the increasing risks associated with the rapid digitization. The push towards decarbonization also factors in the need to ensure security and resilience for grid-connected renewable energy resources. This report summarizes the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office's effort to develop a cybersecurity valuation methodology that assists hydropower stakeholders in assessing risks associated with plan operations and gathers valuation guidance through a web-based application. The Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework delivers a platform for industry members to perform self-assessments and make informed decisions on their cybersecurity investments.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Accident event progression, gaps, and key performance indicators for steam generator tube rupture events in water-cooled SMRs: A review
According to historical records of reactor-related incidents, a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) is one of the most common occurrences at operating pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Such design-basis accidents (DBAs) could lead to a direct path for radionuclides to be released to the atmosphere via the safety and relief valves, making assessments of radionuclide discharge from operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) into the environment crucial for ensuring safety. In such analyses, the primary focus has been on the extent of radioactive release, not the potential damage to the core. Moreover, significant and timely intervention by operators is needed during the initial stages of SGTRs in order to avert overfilling of the SGs, as well as to restrict the dissemination of radioactive materials. Determining the event sequence and phases that occur during an SGTR incident in an advanced passive (e.g., AP1000) water-cooled nuclear reactor is crucial for implementing effective passive safety systems (PSSs) for a specific water-cooled small modular reactor (SMR) design. Here this study provides a comprehensive review of the accident event progression, associated physical phenomena, knowledge gaps, and key performance indicators that must be evaluated and assessed in thermal-hydraulics models, based on relevant test data, respectively.
21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
Recommendations for Secure Transport: Material Conveyance Physical Protection Technology
Nuclear material is at higher risk of theft and sabotage during transport than during any other phase of the nuclear fuel lifecycle. Nuclear materials are transported in the public domain where adversaries have an upper hand by taking advantage of the time and location of the theft or sabotage attempt. As such, even modest threat profiles for transport of nuclear and radioactive material can require substantial detection and delay measures to support timely response. Conveyance tracking augmented with technology that improves on-the-scene situational awareness at a remote monitoring center has been adopted as a de-facto standard approach for transportation security. At present, the extended tracking and situational awareness capabilities needed for a nuclear material shipment, as is provided by the purpose designed, Transportation – Security, Tracking and Reporting (T-STAR) System, do not exist in a single commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) solution. Typically, the COTS systems that excel in one area are deficient in other areas, presenting challenges to designing well-rounded, robust systems. Still, COTS solutions can offer the basic set of tracking and situational awareness capabilities by indicating last update time, current location, and route taken. By incorporating vehicle and driver performance measures via the vehicle’s controller area network (CAN bus) and video alongside other data streams allows telemetry and other shipment information to be assessed in novel ways.This paper describes the operation, capabilities and features of various conveyance protection systems and approaches, assesses emerging technologies and how they could be used through a unified interface, and enumerates additional ways to provide early detection using vehicle, onboard technologies, effective delay technologies and approaches and simple equipment to improve protection during transport.
Shannon, Michael↗