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NASA NTRS2009

Configuring the HYSPLIT Model for National Weather Service Forecast Office and Spaceflight Meteorology Group Applications

For expedience in delivering dispersion guidance in the diversity of operational situations, National Weather Service Melbourne (MLB) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) are becoming increasingly reliant on the PC-based version of the HYSPLIT model run through a graphical user interface (GUI). While the GUI offers unique advantages when compared to traditional methods, it is difficult for forecasters to run and manage in an operational environment. To alleviate the difficulty in providing scheduled real-time trajectory and concentration guidance, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) configured a Linux version of the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) (HYSPLIT) model that ingests the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) guidance, such as the North American Mesoscale (NAM) and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) models. The AMU configured the HYSPLIT system to automatically download the NCEP model products, convert the meteorological grids into HYSPLIT binary format, run the model from several pre-selected latitude/longitude sites, and post-process the data to create output graphics. In addition, the AMU configured several software programs to convert local Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model output into HYSPLIT format.

Dreher, Joseph G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space-time modeling using environmental constraints in a mobile robot system

Grid-based models of a robot's local environment have been used by many researchers building mobile robot control systems. The attraction of grid-based models is their clear parallel between the internal model and the external world. However, the discrete nature of such representations does not match well with the continuous nature of actions and usually serves to limit the abilities of the robot. This work describes a spatial modeling system that extracts information from a grid-based representation to form a symbolic representation of the robot's local environment. The approach makes a separation between the representation provided by the sensing system and the representation used by the action system. Separation allows asynchronous operation between sensing and action in a mobile robot, as well as the generation of a more continuous representation upon which to base actions.

Slack, Marc G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Expansion of the Real-Time SPoRT-Land Information System for NOAA/National Weather Service Situational Awareness and Local Modeling Applications

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014.This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations.

Case, Jonathan L↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Utilizing Airborne and Space-Based Remote Sensing Imagery to Implement the Unvegetated-Vegetated Ratio to Assess Salt Marsh Vulnerability in South Carolina

Among the most productive ecosystems on earth, salt marshes provide crucial ecosystem services including water filtration, shoreline protection, storm surge buffering, and flood mitigation. Marshes are largely dependent on their sediment budget which can significantly vary across a region and can be used to determine the life span of the marsh. Upstream land use change near Charleston, South Carolina, along with rising sea levels, are expected to alter sediment budgets and threaten marsh stability and long-term health. The unvegetated-vegetated ratio (UVVR), developed by researchers at USGS, is a scalable and efficient method to assess vulnerability. The NASA DEVELOP National Program collaborated with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control, and the United States Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center to apply the UVVR method within Google Earth Engine. Marsh vulnerability was analyzed using UVVR derived from clustering and manual interpretation of National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) high-resolution aerial imagery. NAIP derived UVVR was aggregated to Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) resolution and projection. A Random Forest Regression between Landsat derived data and UVVR was modeled to estimate a potential relationship. The estimation of this relationship was used to produce temporal change analysis maps of salt marsh vulnerability back to 1984. The NAIP imagery processed through Google Earth Engine allowed us to make detailed UVVR maps for 2009, 2015, 2017, and 2019 for decision making within South Carolina. Google Earth Engine scripting provided a novel approach to UVVR methodology that will allow decision makers to input new marsh regions and easily calculate marsh vulnerability without external data downloading. These results were used to understand what areas of the marsh need most resource allocation in the future.

NASA DEVELOP↗

NASA NTRS2003

Engine Installation Effects of Four Civil Transport Airplanes: Wallops Flight Facility Study

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Langley Research Center (LaRC), the Environmental Measurement and Modeling Division of the United States Department of Transportation s John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), and several other organizations (see Appendix A for a complete list of participating organizations and individuals) conducted a noise measurement study at NASA s Wallops Flight Facility (Wallops) near Chincoteague, Virginia during September 2000. This test was intended to determine engine installation effects on four civil transport airplanes: a Boeing 767-400, a McDonnell-Douglas DC9, a Dassault Falcon 2000, and a Beechcraft King Air. Wallops was chosen for this study because of the relatively low ambient noise of the site and the degree of control over airplane operating procedures enabled by operating over a runway closed to other uses during the test period. Measurements were conducted using a twenty microphone U-shaped array oriented perpendicular to the flight path; microphones were mounted such that ground effects were minimized and low elevation angles were observed.

Fleming, Gregg G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $ \$ $6B annually (at $ \$ $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year), and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE) missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Surface Roughness Effects from Additive Manufacturing in High Efficiency Gas Turbine Combustion Systems

In the past, clean combustion systems were characterized by high system development costs due to growing complexity and escalating manufacturing costs from conventional manufacturing processes. As a result, high efficiency concepts are difficult to design and more difficult to be cost-effectively manufactured. In recent years, with the introduction of additive manufacturing (AM) technologies, the rapid prototyping and mass production processes of clean combustion systems are promising to be significantly simplified with significant reduction in terms of engine manufacturing cost and engine energy cost. Compared with conventional manufacturing built parts, the AM process enabled a simpler design to be adopted for the nozzle, reducing the number of required braze and weld joints from twenty-five to just five. The resulting nozzle was 25% lighter and five times more durable and contributed to a 15% reduction in fuel burn in comparison with the previous model produced. Applying these improvements to a fleet of 5,000 turbofan engines at 150 kN thrust would result in fuel cost savings of $6B annually (at $5/gallon Jet-A fuel price, 700 gallon/hour fuel consumption rate, and 2,300 operational hours per year),and reduce CO2 emissions by more than 25 million tons per year. These advances support core Department of Energy (DOE)missions in energy efficiency, improving productivity, and environmental sustainability. Maximizing the benefit of these new capabilities will require high prediction capability of high speed turbulent flow with wall modeled Large Eddy Simulation (LES). GE Aviation maintains that advanced simulation technology and supercomputing is required in order to provide the appropriate boundary conditions to realize the maximum potential of AM and Ceramic Matrix Composite to reduce cooling flow, a first order penalty on the Brayton cycle. The algorithm developed using the ANSYS/Fluent software would provide the foundation for entirely new avenues of research and development with potential multi-billion dollar impact to the US economy, and significant reduction in carbon based emissions across the aerospace and power generation industries. The formulation of this iWLES (integral wall model for LES) is generic and allows to capture the changes in flow dynamics that have a significant impact on the wall bounded flow characteristics, such as swirler effective area, bulk swirl number, local pressure distribution, exit velocity profile, and turbulence kinetic energy profile. A periodic channel flow with rough flat plate is simulated using LES (Wall-Adapting Local Eddy-viscosity) model to verify the implementation of iWLES in the Fluent User Defined Function (UDF). As the flow fields are highly sensitive due to surface roughness of the wall bounded flows in the combustion systems, there is significant potential to conduct further LES studies focusing on the turbulence boundary layer interaction. Accurately capturing near wall physics will elucidate the impact of rough surfaces on combustor flow and aero-thermal interactions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Cloud Computing Applications in Support of Earth Science Activities at Marshall Space Flight Center

Currently, the NASA Nebula Cloud Computing Platform is available to Agency personnel in a pre-release status as the system undergoes a formal operational readiness review. Over the past year, two projects within the Earth Science Office at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center have been investigating the performance and value of Nebula s "Infrastructure as a Service", or "IaaS" concept and applying cloud computing concepts to advance their respective mission goals. The Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique NASA satellite observations and weather forecasting capabilities for use within the operational forecasting community through partnerships with NOAA s National Weather Service (NWS). SPoRT has evaluated the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model on virtual machines deployed within Nebula and used Nebula instances to simulate local forecasts in support of regional forecast studies of interest to select NWS forecast offices. In addition to weather forecasting applications, rapidly deployable Nebula virtual machines have supported the processing of high resolution NASA satellite imagery to support disaster assessment following the historic severe weather and tornado outbreak of April 27, 2011. Other modeling and satellite analysis activities are underway in support of NASA s SERVIR program, which integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor environmental change and improve disaster response in Central America, the Caribbean, Africa, and the Himalayas. Leveraging SPoRT s experience, SERVIR is working to establish a real-time weather forecasting model for Central America. Other modeling efforts include hydrologic forecasts for Kenya, driven by NASA satellite observations and reanalysis data sets provided by the broader meteorological community. Forecast modeling efforts are supplemented by short-term forecasts of convective initiation, determined by geostationary satellite observations processed on virtual machines powered by Nebula.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Optical Characterization of DebriSat Fragments in Support of Orbital Debris Environmental Models

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) develops, maintains, and updates orbital debris environmental models, such as the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), to support satellite designers and operators by estimating the risk from orbital debris impacts on their vehicles in orbit. Updates to ORDEM utilize the most recent validated datasets from radar, optical, and in situ sources to provide estimates of the debris flux as a function of size, material density, impact speed, and direction along a mission orbit. On-going efforts within the NASA ODPO to update the next version of ORDEM include a new parameter that highly affects the damage risk – shape. Shape can be binned by material density and size to better understand the damage assessments on spacecraft. The in situ and laboratory research activities at the NASA ODPO are focused on cataloging and characterizing fragments from a laboratory hypervelocity-impact test using a high-fidelity, mock-up satellite, DebriSat, in controlled and instrumented laboratory conditions. DebriSat is representative of present-day, low Earth orbit satellites, having been constructed with modern spacecraft materials and techniques. The DebriSat fragment ensemble provides a variety of shapes, bulk densities, and dimensions. Fragments down to 2 mm in size are being characterized by their physical and derived properties. A subset of fragments is being analyzed further in NASA’s Optical Measurement Center (OMC) using broadband, bidirectional reflectance measurements to provide insight into the optical-based NASA Size Estimation Model. Additionally, pre-impact spectral measurements on a subset of DebriSat materials were acquired for baseline material characterization. This paper provides an overview of DebriSat, the status of the project, and ongoing fragment characterization efforts within the OMC.

Heather M Cowardin↗

NASA NTRS2021

Optical Characterization of DebriSat Fragments in Support of Orbital Debris Environmental Models

Heather M. Cowardin↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Machine Learning Algorithm in Generating an Evapotranspiration Data Product From Coupled Thermal Infrared and Microwave Satellite Observations

Land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the main energy sources for atmospheric dynamics and a critical component of the local, regional, and global water cycles. Consequently, accurate measurement or estimation of ET is one of the most active topics in hydro-climatology research. With massive and spatially distributed observational data sets of land surface properties and environmental conditions being collected from the ground, airborne or space-borne platforms daily over the past few decades, many research teams have started to use big data science to advance the ET estimation methods. The Geostationary satellite Evapotranspiration and Drought (GET-D) product system was developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in 2016 to generate daily ET and drought maps operationally. The primary inputs of the current GET-D system are the thermal infrared (TIR) observations from NOAA GOES satellite series. Because of the cloud contamination to the TIR observations, the spatial coverage of the daily GET-D ET product has been severely impacted. Based on the most recent advances, we have tested a machine learning algorithm to estimate all-weather land surface temperature (LST) from TIR and microwave (MW) combined satellite observations. With the regression tree machine learning approach, we can combine the high accuracy and high spatial resolution of GOES TIR data with the better spatial coverage of passive microwave observations and LST simulations from a land surface model (LSM). The regression tree model combines the three LST data sources for both clear and cloudy days, which enables the GET-D system to derive an all-weather ET product. This paper reports how the all-weather LST and ET are generated in the upgraded GET-D system and provides an evaluation of these LST and ET estimates with ground measurements. The results demonstrate that the regression tree machine learning method is feasible and effective for generating daily ET under all weather conditions with satisfactory accuracy from the big volume of satellite observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Short-lived noble gas effluent trends from a research reactor

An understanding of anthropogenic sources of radioactive noble gases in the atmosphere is needed to enhance the discrimination ability of the International Monitoring System's sensors. These sources include commercial and research nuclear reactors and medical isotope production facilities. While abiding by local environmental ordinances these facilities all emit noble gas radioisotopes through normal operation. Here, this research presents measurements and analysis of noble gas isotopes ( 41 Ar, 135 Xe, 135m Xe, 137 Xe, 138 Xe, 87 Kr, 88 Kr, and 89 Kr) made directly at the stack of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The Xe and Kr noble gases are concurrently observed with 41 Ar, a neutron activation product, when the reactor is operational. The magnitude of the Xe and Kr noble gases released is not constant over the HFIR cycle, but they temporally match the 41 Ar trend. An isotope activity ratio analysis of these shorter lived isotopes combined with the observation of the cycle's temporal trend helps understand the noble gas production mechanism at the HFIR. Isotopes with short half-lives are not useful for long-range environmental monitoring. However, these measurements could potentially be combined with atmospheric modeling to predict the background source term of the longer-lived Xe ratios at a monitoring station.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Structural Load Alleviation Applied to Next Generation Aircraft and Wind Turbines

Reducing the environmental impact of aviation is a goal of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Project under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program of NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. Environmental impact of aviation is being addressed by novel aircraft configurations and materials that reduce aircraft weight and increase aerodynamic efficiency. NASA is developing tools to address the challenges of increased airframe flexibility created by wings constructed with reduced structural material and novel light-weight materials. This talk will present a framework and demonstration of a flight control system using optimal control allocation with structural load feedback and constraints to achieve safe aircraft operation. As wind turbines age, they become susceptible to many forms of blade degradation. Results will be presented on work in progress that uses adaptive contingency control for load mitigation in a wind turbine simulation with blade damage progression modeled.

adaptive control↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Local modeling with a customized configuration is conducted at National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) to produce high-resolution numerical forecasts that can better simulate local weather phenomena and complement larger scale global and regional models. The advent of the Environmental Modeling System (EMS), which provides a pre-compiled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and wrapper Perl scripts, has enabled forecasters to easily configure and execute the WRF model on local workstations. NWS WFOs often use EMS output to help in forecasting highly localized, mesoscale features such as convective initiation, the timing and inland extent of lake effect snow bands, lake and sea breezes, and topographically-modified winds. However, quantitatively evaluating model performance to determine errors and biases still proves to be one of the challenges in running a local model. Developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification software makes performing these types of quantitative analyses easier, but operational forecasters do not generally have time to familiarize themselves with navigating the sometimes complex configurations associated with the MET tools. To assist forecasters in running a subset of MET programs and capabilities, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed and transitioned a set of dynamic, easily configurable Perl scripts to collaborating NWS WFOs. The objective of these scripts is to provide SPoRT collaborating partners in the NWS with the ability to evaluate the skill of their local EMS model runs in near real time with little prior knowledge of the MET package. The ultimate goal is to make these verification scripts available to the broader NWS community in a future version of the EMS software. This paper provides an overview of the SPoRT MET scripts, instructions for how the scripts are run, and example use cases.

Zavordsky, Bradley↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development and Implementation of Dynamic Scripts to Support Local Model Verification at National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Variable Renewable Energy and Storage in the Power Sector

The emergence of variable renewable energy and battery storage technologies have fundamentally transformed the electric power sector and generated demand for analysis to understand their roles in future energy systems. Although unique characteristics of these resources are well-recognized and require more sophisticated methodologies to capture effectively, guidance is limited on best practices and research gaps. This paper selectively reviews recent literature and draws upon our collective modeling experience to offer recommendations to analysts and consumers of model outputs on approaches for modeling variable renewable energy and storage in long-term electric sector models. We focus on regional- and national-scale models with technological, temporal, and spatial detail given their prevalence in planning and policy analysis, though insights are applicable in other settings. The review highlights how the research frontier has advanced in representing renewables and energy storage over the past decade; however, given the many considerations involved with appropriately capturing salient economic and operational characteristics of renewables, there is a gap between commonly used models and state-of-the-art methods. Model simplifications can materially impact policy analysis associated with power sector decarbonization and high renewables deployment, and improving model representations of variable renewables can enhance insights for policymakers and other stakeholders. This review can point the way for improved methods for established models and designs for emerging ones.

energy and environmental policy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bankhead National Forest Fact Sheet

By the end of 2023, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility plans to open a new atmospheric observatory in northwestern Alabama. For at least five years, the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) atmospheric observatory will collect data for researchers to learn more about aerosols, clouds, and land-atmosphere interactions in the Southeastern United States. In turn, their studies will lead to improvements in models of the Earth’s climate. A U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) workshop in August 2018 identified the Southeast as a priority region of interest for further study by ARM, a DOE Office of Science user facility that operates fixed-location and mobile observatories worldwide. The Southeast experiences high humidity, frequent convection, and high biogenic emissions. The land surface, boundary layer, vegetation, and aerosol properties across the region are markedly different from those seen at ARM’s long-term observatory in Oklahoma, allowing opportunities to explore new research questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗