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DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Coupled Feedbacks in the Decadal Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Additionally, Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Role of Tropical Variability in Driving Decadal Shifts in the Southern Hemisphere Summertime Eddy-Driven Jet

The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1976

Seasat-A Synthetic Aperture Radar - Radar system implementation

The Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) onboard the Seasat-A satellite will conduct a number of experiments involving deep ocean waves, coastal wave patterns, polar ice and land forms. The SAR will have a 25 m by 25 m resolution over a swath of 100 km width centered about 300 km to the right of the spacecraft track. The SAR's high data rate limits operations to times when Seasat-A is in view of a few ground stations with special SAR receiving equipment. However, the SAR will collect much useful data about deep ocean and coastal waves in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans; about ice in the Northwest Atlantic, in the Great Lakes and off the coast of Alaska; and about land over much of the United States and Canada.

Thompson, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Research of the state of convection in the Earth's mantle

The behavior and mechanical properties of the lithosphere are studied. Geoid heights derived from the GEOS 3 and SEASAT radar altimeters were used. The following predictive capabilities are discussed: location of unknown seamounts from the knowledge of the geoid heights; prediction of gravity field from the knowledge of the topography and past history of the relief; or insight into the history of a region from the knowledge of both topography and geoid heights. Several geographical areas were studied, including the Walvis Ridge and Rio Grande Rise in the Southern Atlantic Ocean and several seamount chains in the Central Pacific Ocean. Two main factors influence geoid height: conditions of creation and age of the lithosphere at the time of loading.

Roufosse, M. C.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Late-Quaternary climatic change on the American North Pacific Coast

The late Quaternary climate of the North Pacific, where according to modelling the solar radiation in the early Holocene at the time of the summer solstice is high and in the late Holocene is relatively low, is investigated. Quantitative temperature and precipitation estimates from southern Alaska are compared with estimates from western Washington and British Columbia. Data extending over more than 10,000 years show a broadly consistent pattern of climatic change in general agreement with predicted variations in solar radiation and their effect on atmospheric circulation and seasonal duration of pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean. In the early Holocene, the subtropical North Pacific anticyclone annually regulated climate for a longer period at higher latitudes than at present, so that warmth and dryness increased in southern Alaska. The Aleutian low-pressure center intensified during the late Holocene, resulting in colder and more humid coastal climate and increased frequency of glacier growth in the cordillera.

Heusser, C. J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Geoid undulation computations at laser tracking stations

Geoid undulation computations were performed at 29 laser stations distributed around the world using a combination of terrestrial gravity data within a cap of radius 2 deg and a potential coefficient set up to 180 deg. The traditional methods of Stokes' and Meissl's modification together with the Molodenskii method and the modified Sjoberg method were applied. Performing numerical tests based on global error assumptions regarding the terrestrial data and the geopotential set it was concluded that the modified Sjoberg method is the most accurate and promising technique for geoid undulation computations. The numerical computations for the geoid undulations using all the four methods resulted in agreement with the ellipsoidal minus orthometric value of the undulations on the order of 60 cm or better for most of the laser stations in the eastern United States, Australia, Japan, Bermuda, and Europe. A systematic discrepancy of about 2 meters for most of the western United States stations was detected and verified by using two relatively independent data sets. For oceanic laser stations in the western Atlantic and Pacific oceans that have no terrestrial data available, the adjusted GEOS-3 and SEASAT altimeter data were used for the computation of the geoid undulation in a collocation method.

Despotakis, Vasilios K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Global shortwave energy budget at the earth's surface from ERBE observations

A method is proposed to compute the net solar (shortwave) irradiance at the earth's surface from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) data in the S4 format. The S4 data are monthly averaged broadband planetary albedo collected at selected times during the day. Net surface shortwave irradiance is obtained from the shortwave irradiance incident at the top of the atmosphere (known) by subtracting both the shortwave energy flux reflected by the earth-atmosphere system (measured) and the energy flux absorbed by the atmosphere (modeled). Precalculated atmospheric- and surface-dependent functions that characterize scattering and absorption in the atmosphere are used, which makes the method easily applicable and computationally efficient. Four surface types are distinguished, namely, ocean, vegetation, desert, and snow/ice. Over the tropical Pacific Ocean, the estimates based on ERBE data compare well with those obtained from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) B3 data. For the 9 months analyzed the linear correlation coefficient and the standard difference between the two datasets are 0.95 and 14 W/sq m (about 6% of the average shortwave irradiance), respectively, and the bias is 15 W/sq m (higher ERBE values). The bias, a strong function of ISCCP satellite viewing zenith angle, is mostly in the ISCCP-based estimates. Over snow/ice, vegetation, and desert no comparison is made with other satellite-based estimates, but theoretical calculations using the discrete ordinate method suggest that over highly reflective surfaces (snow/ice, desert) the model, which accounts crudely for multiple reflection between the surface and clouds, may substantially overestimate the absorbed solar energy flux at the surface, especially when clouds are optically thick. The monthly surface shortwave irradiance fields produced for 1986 exhibit the main features characteristic of the earth's climate. As found in other studies, our values are generally higher than Esbensen and Kushnir's by as much as 80 W/sq m in the tropical oceans. A cloud parameter, defined as the difference between clear-sky and actual irradiances normalized to top-of-atmosphere clear-sky irradiance, is also examined. This parameter, minimally affected by sun zenith angle, is higher in the midlatitude regions of storm tracks than in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), suggesting that, on average, the higher cloud coverage in midlatitudes is more effective at reducing surface shortwave irradiance than opaque, convective, yet sparser clouds in the ITCZ. Surface albedo estimates are realistic, generally not exceeding 0.06 in the ocean, as high as 0.9 in polar regions, and reaching 0.5 in the Sahara and Arabian deserts.

Breon, Francois-Marie↗

NASA NTRS2001

Whole Air Sampling During NASA's March-April 1999 Pacific Exploratory Expedition (PEM-Tropics B)

University of California, Irvine (UCI) collected more than 4500 samples whole air samples collected over the remote Pacific Ocean during NASA's Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE) Pacific Exploratory Mission-Tropics B (PEM-Tropics B) in March and early April 1999. Approximately 140 samples during a typical 8-hour DC-8 flight, and 120 canisters for each 8-hour flight aboard the P-3B. These samples were obtained roughly every 3-7 min during horizontal flight legs and 1-3 min during vertical legs. The filled canisters were analyzed in the laboratory at UCI within ten days of collection. The mixing ratios of 58 trace gases comprising hydrocarbons, halocarbons, alkyl nitrates and DMS were reported (and archived) for each sample. Two identical analytical systems sharing the same standards were operated simultaneously around the clock to improve canister turn-around time and to keep our measurement precision optimal. This report presents a summary of the results for sample collected.

Blake, Donald R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Marine Environmental Degradation of Additive Manufacturing Materials for Renewable Energy Applications

Marine renewable energy is a relatively young industry where there is a great need for rapid prototyping in design-build-test campaigns to quickly mature groundbreaking technologies. Additive manufacturing has an important role to play in the industry; however, little information is available to marine energy developers to help inform them on which additive manufacturing materials are appropriate for highly loaded structures in harsh marine environments. This paper presents an initial study on the mechanical characterization of polymeric additive manufacturing materials and the degradation effects due to the marine environment. Ultem 9085, acrylonitrile styrene acrylate, and chopped carbon-filled nylon, as well as continuous carbon and glass fiber-reinforced nylon were chosen for this study. Samples were manufactured to perform a variety of tension, shear, and compression mechanical characterization tests on the materials. Half of the samples were conditioned in Pacific Ocean water for approximately 6 months at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory before being returned for mechanical characterization. The mechanical testing results showed that the Ultem 9085 and acrylonitrile styrene acrylate materials experienced little to no degradation in stiffness or strength after exposure to the marine environment. On the other hand, the nylon-based materials suffered significant stiffness and strength degradation (over 50% in some cases) after environmental conditioning. Ultimately, these data sets should serve as starting points to allow marine renewable energy developers to make informed additive manufacturing material choices for their prototype deployments.

additive manufacturing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigating Marine Environmental Degradation Of Additive Manufacturing Materials For Renewable Energy Applications

Marine renewable energy is a relatively young industry where there is a great need for rapid prototyping in design-build-test campaigns to quickly mature ground-breaking technologies. Additive manufacturing has an important role to play in the industry; however, little information is available to marine energy developers to help inform them on which additive manufacturing materials are appropriate for harsh marine environments. This paper presents an initial study on the mechanical characterization of polymeric additive manufacturing materials and degradation effects due to the marine environment. Ultem 9085, acrylonitrile styrene acrylate (ASA), and chopped carbon-filled Nylon, as well as continuous carbon and glass fiber reinforced Nylon were chosen for this study. Samples were manufactured to perform a variety of tension, shear, and compression mechanical characterization tests on the materials. Half of the samples were conditioned in Pacific Ocean water for approximately 6 months at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Marine and Coastal Research Laboratory before being returned for mechanical characterization. The mechanical testing results showed that the Ultem 9085 and ASA materials experienced little to no degradation in stiffness or strength after exposure to the marine environment. On the other hand, the Nylon-based materials suffered significant stiffness and strength degradation (over 50% in some cases) after environmental conditioning. Ultimately, these results should serve as starting points to allow marine renewable energy developers to make informed additive manufacturing material choices for their prototype deployments.

Murdy, Paul↗

NASA NTRS1993

TOPEX Press Conference (2 of 2)

Footage shows the continuation of the TOPEX Press Conference. The panelists are seen answering questions from the participating audience as well as from NASA Centers. Answers address Kelvin waves, pulses of warm water, sea surface temperature, and the direction in which the project is heading. Also presented are TOPEX/POSEIDON playbacks of the topography and currents of the World Ocean. The video also shows stills of the Central Pacific Ocean from Nov. 1992 to Jan. 1993 and observations of the El Nino events.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Global Distribution and Sources of Volatile and Nonvolatile Aerosol In the Remote Troposphere

Airborne measurements of aerosol (Condensation Nuclei, CN) and selected trace gases made in the areas of the North Atlantic Ocean during SONEX (October/November 1997), and the south tropical Pacific Ocean during PEM-Tropics A (September/October 1996) and PEM-Tropics B (March/April 1999) have been analyzed. Emphasis is on the interpretations of variations in the number densities of the fine (>17 nm) and ultrafine (>8 nm) CN in the upper troposphere (8-12 km). These data suggest that large number densities of highly volatile CN (10(exp 4)-10(exp 5)/cu cm) are present in the clean upper troposphere with highest values over the tropical1subtropical region. Through marine convection and long-distance horizontal transport, volatile CN originating from the tropical/subtropical regions can frequently impact the abundance of aerosol in the middle and upper troposphere at mid to high latitudes. Nonvolatile aerosol particles behave in a manner similar to tracers of combustion (CO) and photochemical pollution (PAN), implying a source from continental pollution of industrial or biomass burning origin. In the upper troposphere, we find that volatile and nonvolatile partials number densities are inversely correlated. An aerosol microphysical model is used to suggest that coagulation of fine volatile particles with fewer larger nonvolatile particles provides one possible mechanism for this relationship. It appears that nonvolatile particles, of principally anthropogenic origin,provide a highly efficient removal process for the fine volatile aerosol.

Singh, Hanwant B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Technical Findings, Lessons Learned, and Recommendations Resulting from the Helios Prototype Vehicle Mishap

The Helios Prototype was originally planned to be two separate vehicles, but because of resource limitations only one vehicle was developed to demonstrate two missions. The vehicle consisted of two configurations, one for each mission. One configuration, designated HP01, was designed to operate at extremely high altitudes using batteries and high-efficiency solar cells spread across the upper surface of its 247-foot wingspan. On August 13, 2001, the HP01 configuration reached an altitude of 96,863 feet, a world record for sustained horizontal flight by a winged aircraft. The other configuration, designated HP03, was designed for long-duration flight. The plan was to use the solar cells to power the vehicle's electric motors and subsystems during the day and to use a modified commercial hydrogen-air fuel cell system for use during the night. The aircraft design used wing dihedral, engine power, elevator control surfaces, and a stability augmentation and control system to provide aerodynamic stability and control. At about 30 minutes into the second flight of HP03, the aircraft encountered a disturbance in the way of turbulence and morphed into an unexpected, persistent, high dihedral configuration. As a result of the persistent high dihedral, the aircraft became unstable in a very divergent pitch mode in which the airspeed excursions from the nominal flight speed about doubled every cycle of the oscillation. The aircraft s design airspeed was subsequently exceeded and the resulting high dynamic pressures caused the wing leading edge secondary structure on the outer wing panels to fail and the solar cells and skin on the upper surface of the wing to rip away. As a result, the vehicle lost its ability to maintain lift, fell into the Pacific Ocean within the confines of the U.S. Navy's Pacific Missile Range Facility, and was destroyed. This paper describes the mishap and its causes, and presents the technical recommendations and lessons learned for improving the design, analysis, and testing methods and techniques required for this class of vehicle.

Noll, Thomas E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Variability of Radiation, Water and Energy in the Deep Tropics Over the Last 3 Decades

Global surface energy closure and its variability depends heavily upon the surface radiative energy budget in the deep tropics. A key process observed is the change in convection regimes from disorganized convection to organized deep convection. During these periods an imbalance is observed between energy and water fluxes in terms of energy closure in some atmospheric reanalysis systems, implying that processes are not simulated well. A recent paper by Hsaio et al (2023, pre-published version) found that the transition process has wind shear and longwave cloud radiative feedback signatures. In this presentation, we assess the surface radiative budget in the deep tropics by comparing multiple data products (GEWEX SRB Rel4IP, CERES Ed4.1, ISSCP FH, etc.) and describing the variability across the deep tropics for the period from 1988 to near present. We assess this variability of the radiative flux anomalies (including the net TOA, surface and the atmospheric divergence fluxes) against water vapor divergence, cloud properties (include ISCCP “Weather States, Tselioudis et al. 2021) and larger scale wind shear. We include further analysis contrasting 6 key tropical oceanic regions (Indian Ocean east and west, tropical western, central and eastern Pacific Ocean, and Tropical Atlantic Ocean) and the sensitivity of the fluxes as a function of fluctuations in cloud types in response to various larger scale atmospheric processes (e.g. El Niño, Indian Ocean Dipole). These are contrasted against the modeled radiative fluxes from ERA-5 and MERRA-2. Ocean buoy measurements of radiative fluxes are utilized to help assess data radiative flux uncertainty over the nearly 40 year period. In general, the variability for overlap periods of these various data products agrees well, but there are significant differences in the net fluxes that vary according to the rendering of surface, atmospheric, aerosol and cloud properties. We conclude with recommendations for continuing work.

Radiation budget↗

NASA NTRS1989

The cloud and surface contributions to the net radiation balance during the 1982-83 El Nino

This paper investigates the interannual fluctuations in cloud and surface forcing associated with the unusually intense ENSO event of 1982-1983. The analysis was performed over a six-year period for which global radiation budget and cloudiness measurements from the Nimbus-7 experiments were available simultaneously. It is shown that major anomalies in cloudiness, due mostly to shifts of a major convective center in the Pacific Ocean associated with inactive or active ENSO phase, are most notable over the equatorial central Pacific, the maritime continent over the western Pacific, the South Pacific convergence zone, and the Indian Ocean.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

NASA NTRS2003

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Chou, Shu-Hsien↗