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Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from a national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Experimental study of the persistent current in RHIC superconducting dipole

The first goal [1] of this study is to reduce the high order magnetic component (mostly sextupole component) generated by persistent current in RHIC superconducting dipoles [2]. For Beam Energy Scan Phase II (BES-II) [3,4], reduction of lattice non-linearity is desirable for better beam control and beam lifetime. The sextupole component from RHIC dipole persistent current was too strong to be compensated at low operating current. The store length demonstrated in 2010 low energy operation at 3.85 GeV [5] was 10 minutes partially due to the lattice non -linearity. The measurement and compensation of lattice non-linearity were very difficult with such a short lifetime.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

A Persistence Meter for Nimble Alarming Using Ambient Synchrophasor Data

Persistent oscillations in the power grid are often indicative of fragility, and may be harbingers of systemic or cascading failures. Modernization of the grid, including increased penetration of intermittent renewables and integration of new power electronics, is making the oscillatory swing dynamics of the network both more complex and variable. In this project researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bernard Lesieutre, lead), Washington State University (Sandip Roy, lead), and the Electric Power Group (Neeraj Nayak, lead) have developed technologies that monitor persistent oscillations in the grid and provide operators with alarms and analytics when concerning oscillations are detected. Some of the algorithms have already been implemented in EPG’s PGDA software and integrated into their RTDMS system for use in control rooms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mini-cell: Compact all optical gas monitoring sensor for persistent surveillance of complex system

Persistent surveillance of complex systems by embedded sensing is the new paradigm of aging awareness and monitoring. In any complex system with a long-term lifespan plan, the persistent surveillance of critical parameters warrants the reliability and safety/security of the system by the continuous monitoring of the state of health and aging conditions. Therefore, embedded sensors of physical, chemical, and structural features/traits are critical for uncovering occurrences of undesired/unexpected events. Gas sensing can provide early detection of a broad range of problems such as decomposing components, corrosion, failures, and leaks. For the application of interest, the sensors must be: 1/highly selective and sensitive for a broad range of gas molecules, 2/compact, 3/minimally invasive, 4/rugged for vibration and thermal excursions, and 5/ environmentally inert.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Long-Term Persistence of Three Microbial Wildfire Biomarkers in Forest Soils

Long-term monitoring of microbial communities in the rhizosphere of post-fire forests is currently one of the key knowledge gaps. Knowing the time scale of the effects is indispensable to aiding post-fire recovery in vulnerable woodlands, including holm oak forests, that are subjected to a Mediterranean climate, as is the case with forests that are found in protected areas such as the Sierra Nevada National and Natural Park in southeastern Spain. We took rhizosphere soil samples from burned and unburned holm oak trees approximately 3, 6, and 9 years after the 2005 fire that devastated almost 3500 ha in southeastern Spain. We observed that the prokaryotic communities are recovering but have not yet reached the conditions observed in the unburned forest. A common denominator between this fire and other fires is the long-term persistence of three ecosystem recovery biomarkers—specifically, higher proportions of the genera Arthrobacter, Blastococcus, and Massilia in soil microbial communities after a forest fire. These pyrophilous microbes possess remarkable resilience against adverse conditions, exhibiting traits such as xerotolerance, nitrogen mineralization, degradation of aromatic compounds, and copiotrophy in favorable conditions. Furthermore, these biomarkers thrive in alkaline environments, which persist over the long term following forest fires. The relative abundance of these biomarkers showed a decreasing trend over time, but they were still far from the values of the control condition. In conclusion, a decade does not seem to be enough for the complete recovery of the prokaryotic communities in this Mediterranean ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSISTENCE MAPPING USING EUV SOLAR IMAGER DATA

We describe a simple image processing technique that is useful for the visualization and depiction of gradually evolving or intermittent structures in solar physics extreme-ultraviolet imagery. The technique is an application of image segmentation, which we call “Persistence Mapping,” to isolate extreme values in a data set, and is particularly useful for the problem of capturing phenomena that are evolving in both space and time. While integration or “time-lapse” imaging uses the full sample (of size N ), Persistence Mapping rejects ( N − 1)/ N of the data set and identifies the most relevant 1/ N values using the following rule: if a pixel reaches an extreme value, it retains that value until that value is exceeded. The simplest examples isolate minima and maxima, but any quantile or statistic can be used. This paper demonstrates how the technique has been used to extract the dynamics in long-term evolution of comet tails, erupting material, and EUV dimming regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multi-epoch spectroscopy of dwarf galaxies with AGN signatures: identifying sources with persistent broad Hα emission

We use time-domain optical spectroscopy to distinguish between broad emission lines powered by accreting black holes (BHs) and stellar processes (i.e., supernovae) for 16 galaxies identified as active galactic nucleus (AGN) candidates by Reines et al (2013). Our study is primarily focused on those objects with narrow emission line ratios dominated by star formation, for which the origin of the broad Hα emission was unclear. Based on follow-up spectroscopy, we find that the broad Hα emission has faded or was ambiguous for all of the star-forming objects (14/16), over baselines ranging from 5–14 years, suggesting a transient stellar process was responsible for the broad emission in previous Sloan Digital Sky Survey observations. For the two objects in our follow-up sample with narrow-line AGN signatures (RGG 9 and RGG 119), we find persistent broad Hα emission consistent with an AGN origin. Additionally, we use high spectral resolution observations to measure stellar velocity dispersions for 15 objects in the Reines et al. (2013) sample, all with narrow-line ratios indicating the presence of an AGN. Stellar masses range from ∼5×10{sup 8} to 3×10{sup 9} M {sub ⊙}, and we measure σ{sub ∗} in the range of 28--71 km s{sup −1}. These σ{sub ∗} correspond to some of the lowest-mass galaxies with optical signatures of AGN activity. We show that RGG 119, the one object that has both a measured σ{sub ∗} and persistent broad Hα emission, falls near the extrapolation of the M{sub BH}−σ{sub ⋆} relation to the low-mass end.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Testing the Young Neutron Star Scenario with Persistent Radio Emission Associated with FRB 121102

Recently a repeating fast radio burst (FRB) 121102 has been confirmed to be an extragalactic event and a persistent radio counterpart has been identified. While other possibilities are not ruled out, the emission properties are broadly consistent with Murase et al. that theoretically proposed quasi-steady radio emission as a counterpart of both FRBs and pulsar-driven supernovae. Here, we constrain the model parameters of such a young neutron star scenario for FRB 121102. If the associated supernova has a conventional ejecta mass of M {sub ej} ≳ a few M {sub ⊙}, a neutron star with an age of t {sub age} ∼ 10–100 years, an initial spin period of P{sub i} ≲ a few ms, and a dipole magnetic field of B {sub dip} ≲ a few × 10{sup 13} G can be compatible with the observations. However, in this case, the magnetically powered scenario may be favored as an FRB energy source because of the efficiency problem in the rotation-powered scenario. On the other hand, if the associated supernova is an ultra-stripped one or the neutron star is born by the accretion-induced collapse with M {sub ej} ∼ 0.1 M {sub ⊙}, a younger neutron star with t {sub age} ∼ 1–10 years can be the persistent radio source and might produce FRBs with the spin-down power. These possibilities can be distinguished by the decline rate of the quasi-steady radio counterpart.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Persistent Elevated Soot Emissions Induced by Clustered Stochastic Preignition Events

Stochastic Preignition (SPI) is an abnormal combustion phenomenon that can occur in spark-ignition engines particularly under high-load operation. SPI is characterized by uncontrolled initiation of combustion prior to spark discharge, an abnormal combustion process that can lead to severe knock events and significant engine damage. SPI has been associated with fuel properties, lubricant composition, and engine design and operation. Here, in this work, a single-cylinder test engine with a dry-sump oil system was utilized to study the SPI response of E10 and E25 fuels with a range of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP). An automated test procedure was employed, consisting of ten square-waved load profile segments, with each segment composed of 5 min of low-load operation followed by 25 min of sustained high-load operation. These tests were replicated across multiple days of testing including a lubricant triple flush between tests, and an online Fuel in Oil diagnostic measurement. Exhaust particulate emissions were continuously measured by an AVL microsoot sensor (MSS). Elevated particulate matter emissions were observed to occur concurrently with SPI events as blooms of soot. Particularly after clustered events (i.e., multiple SPI cycles occurring within 10 consecutive engine cycles), high soot emissions were observed to persist over several days of sequential operation despite daily lubricant changes, a complete warm-up procedure, and sustained low-load operation between test segments. This result implies that the particulate emissions trends may be dominated by deposit-based effects, where higher load operation is needed to alter deposition and formation processes. The observed soot blooms were also found to correspond to a reduction in the engine fueling and the fuel engine oil dilution rate despite the engine exhaust remaining at stoichiometric exhaust operation. These observations suggest that post-SPI events, pathways for lubricant migration and consumption into the combustion chamber may occur until these pathways are closed from deposit formation or ring dynamics during extended operation. These observed sooting propensity persisted with all fuels tests, but a linear correlation was observed between the summation of soot and particulate matter index (PMI) value for each fuel as well as SPI events, proving that PMI is a crucial fuel property for reducing SPI.

Splitter, Derek [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

A simple diagnostic tool for the investigation of persistent phenomena with application to the summer 1980 U.S. heat wave

A simple and readily-computed index for diagnostic and numerical weather prediction studies of heat waves and other persistent anomalies has been developed. The index takes into account the two important factors of intensity and persistence and it is highly correlated to the surface air temperature on a variety of time-scales. The utilization of this index for investigating the severe, summer 1980 U.S. heat wave and drought results in an instructive description of the spatial and temporal development of the phenomenon. An assessment of the skill of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) model in forecasting the initiation and breakdown of the heat wave in terms of the index is also illustrated.

Wolfson, Noah↗

Persistence of solar wind features

Using data from the plasma and magnetometer experiments on board the Voyagers 1 and 2 during the approach to Jupiter, solar wind persistence is investigated over the period from January 1978 (Voyager 1 passing by Voyager 2) through February 1979. The trajectories of both spacecraft provided a unique opportunity to study the radial evolution and variation of the solar wind over about 3 AU, and to analyze the persistence of solar wind features along the radially increasing separation distance of both Voyagers. Some emphasis is placed on a period of DOY (day of year) 152 through 212, 1978, in which the observed propagation delay time of solar wind signatures between both Voyagers significantly deviates from the expected delay time. A decrease in the correlation coefficient of the corresponding Voyager 1 and 2 data profiles indicates a remarkable change of the solar wind flow. This period in question coincides to a great extent with the interval V of June-July 1978, selected by STIP (Study of Travelling Interplanetary Phenomena).

Rucker, H. O.↗

The life cycles of persistent anomalies and blocking over the North Pacific

The evolution of persistent anomaly patterns over the central North Pacific is investigated. Composite time evolution fields of the 500-mbar anomaly patterns are constructed from low-pass and unfiltered height anomaly data; the time scales for the development and decay of these persistent anomalies are analyzed. The relationship between zonal flow in the Pacific jet region and the development of the anomaly patterns is examined. The effect of baroclinic instabilities on the development of the anomalies is studied. The vertical structure and synoptic characteristics of the evolution of the anomalies are described. It is noted that the initial rapid growth of the main center may be associated with a propagating, intensifying, synoptic-scale disturbance which originates in the midlatitudes over eastern Asia.

Dole, Randall M.↗

On the persistence of unstable bump-on-tail electron velocity distributions in the earth's foreshock

This paper presents further evidence for the persistence of bump-on-tail unstable reduced velocity distributions in the earth's electron foreshock, which contradicts the understanding of quasi-linear saturation of the bump-on-tail instability. A modified theory for the saturation of the bump-on-tail instability in the earth's foreshock is proposed to explain the mechanism of this persistence, and the predictions are compared to the results of a numerical simulation of the electron plasma in the foreshock. The results support the thesis that quasi-linear saturation of the bump-on-tail instability is modified in the foreshock, due to the driven nature of the region, so that at saturation the stabilized velocity distribution still appears bump-on-tail unstable to linear plasma analysis.

Klimas, Alexander J.↗

Propagation of a westward traveling surge and the development of persistent auroral features

Imaging instrumentation on board the spacecraft Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) is used to observe the large-scale motion of a surge over 7000 km along the auroral oval from near local midnight. Average speed of the surge is 2.2 km/s. Ground-based observations at Fort Yukon, Alaska, show the classical looped, multiple-arc structure of a westward traveling surge as it passes overhead. Within the 6-min temporal resolution provided with DE 1, the surge advances initially at a speed of about 8 km/s followed by a steady decline to about 1 km/s over a period of 17 min. This sequence is then repeated a second time, beginning with a significant intensification of the surge form. This intense surge activity is not accompanied by significant auroral activity near magnetic midnight. Following passage of the surge, persistent and localized bright emission regions remain along the auroral oval for several tens of minutes. Average separation distances are approximately 700 km. If these persistent features identify the sites of individual stepwise advances of the surge, the average time per advance is about 5 min.

Craven, J. D.↗

Persistence of polar stratospheric clouds in the southern polar region

Observations of Antarctic polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) were examined using the 1-micron aerosol extinction ratio data from the SAM II satellite experiment for the years 1979-1982 and 1984-1987. PSCs were sighted between 10 and 25 km and were usually first observed by mid-June. Clouds disappeared earlier at higher altitudes (late August near 24 km, in most cases) and later at lower altitudes (late September or October near 16 km). It was found that PSCs persisted longer in 1985 and 1987 at 18 km and were more frequently observed in September and October 1987 than the other years. Inference of likely PSC formation regions from National Meteorological Center temperature data indicated that clouds would begin forming in late May and usually disappear in September. This analysis confirmed the persistence of colder conditions during the spring of 1987.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Constraints on the inner accretion flow of 4U/MXB 1636-53 (V 801 Arae) from a comparison of X-ray burst and persistent emission

A detailed analysis is presented of the importance of Comptonization in burst and persistent spectra of the low-mass X-ray binary 4U/MXB 1636-53, and from this analysis it is inferred that the inner accretion flow is geometrically thin. It is found that burst spectra of 1636-53 are very nearly Planckian in shape; from an upper limit to a high-energy excess in these spectra it is inferred that the Thomson scattering optical depth of a possible intervening hot cloud must be less than 1 during bursts, and that the Compton y parameter of that cloud must be less than 0.5. During persistent emission, Thomson optical depth of 4-8, an electron temperature of 2-5 keV, and a value of 0.8-1.1 for y are inferred.

Damen, E.↗

Improvement of persistent magnetic field trapping in bulk Y-Ba-Cu-O superconductors

For type-II superconductors, magnetic field can be trapped due to persistent internal supercurrent. Quasi-persistent magnetic fields near 2 T at 60 K (and 1.4 T at 77 K) have been measured in minimagnets made of proton-irradiated melt-textured Y-Ba-Cu-O (MT-Y123) samples. Using the trapping effect, high-field permanent magnets with dipole, quadrupole, or more complicated configurations can be made of existing MT-Y123 material, thus bypassing the need for high-temperature superconductor (HTS) wires. A phenomenological current model has been developed to account for the trapped field intensity and profile in HTS samples. This model is also a guide to select directions of materials development to further improve field trapping properties. General properties such as magnetic field intensities, spatial distributions, stabilities, and temperature dependence of trapped field are discussed.

Chen, In-Gann↗

Long-term persistence of solar activity

The solar irradiance has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiance of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected? We examine the question of the persistence of non-periodic variations in solar activity. The Huerst exponent, which characterizes the persistence of a time series (Mandelbrot and Wallis, 1969), is evaluated for the series of C-14 data for the time interval from about 6000 BC to 1950 AD (Stuiver and Pearson, 1986). We find a constant Huerst exponent, suggesting that solar activity in the frequency range of from 100 to 3000 years includes an important continuum component in addition to the well-known periodic variations. The value we calculate, H approximately equal to 0.8, is significantly larger than the value of 0.5 that would correspond to variations produced by a white-noise process. This value is in good agreement with the results for the monthly sunspot data reported elsewhere, indicating that the physics that produces the continuum is a correlated random process (Ruzmaikin et al., 1992), and that is is the same type of process over a wide range of time interval lengths. We conclude that the time period over which an irradiance change of 0.5% can be expected to occur is significantly shorter than that which would be expected for variations produced by a white-noise process.

Ruzmaikin, Alexander↗