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Planetary atmosphere evolution: do other habitable planets exist and can we detect them?

The goal of this conference is to consider whether it is possible within the next few decades to detect Earth-like planets around other stars using telescopes or interferometers on the ground or in space. Implicit in the term "Earth-like" is the idea that such planets might be habitable by Earth-like organisms, or that they might actually be inhabited. Here, I shall address two questions from the standpoint of planetary atmosphere evolution. First, what are the chances that habitable planets exist around other stars? And, second, if inhabited planets exist, what would be the best way to detect them?.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Terrestrial Planet Finder: science overview

The Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF) seeks to revolutionize our understanding of humanity's place in the universe - by searching for Earth-like planets using reflected light, or thermal emission in the mid-infrared. Direct detection implies that TPF must separate planet light from glare of the nearby star, a technical challenge which has only in recent years been recognized as surmountable. TPF will obtain a low-resolution spectra of each planets it detects, providing some of its basic physical characteristics and its main atmospheric constituents, thereby allowing us to assess the likelihood that habitable conditions exist there. NASA has decided the scientific importance of this research is so high that TPF will be pursued as two complementary space observatories: a visible-light coronagraph and a mid-infrared formation flying interferometer. The combination of spectra from both wavebands is much more valuable than either taken separately, and it will allow a much fuller understanding of the wide diversity of planetary atmospheres that may be expected to exist. Measurements across a broad wavelength range will yield not only physical properties such as size and albedo, but will also serve as the foundations of a reliable and robust assessment of habitability and the presence of life.

comparative planetology↗

Linear Thermal Expansion Measurements of Lead Magnesium Niobate (PMN) Electroceramic Material for the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph

Linear thermal expansion measurements of nine samples of Lead Magnesium Niobate (PMN) electroceramic material were recently performed in support of NASA's Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph (TPF-C) mission. The TPF-C mission is a visible light coronagraph designed to look at roughly 50 stars pre- selected as good candidates for possessing earth-like planets. Upon detection of an earth-like planet, TPF-C will analyze the visible-light signature of the planet's atmosphere for specific spectroscopic indicators that life may exist there. With this focus, the project's primary interest in PMN material is for use as a solid-state actuator for deformable mirrors or compensating optics. The nine test samples were machined from three distinct boules of PMN ceramic manufactured by Xinetics Inc. Thermal expansion measurements were performed in 2005 at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in their Cryogenic Dilatometer Facility. All measurements were performed in vacuum with sample temperature actively controlled over the range of 270K to 3 10K. Expansion and contraction of the test samples with temperature was measured using a JPL developed interferometric system capable of sub-nanometer accuracy. Presented in this paper is a discussion of the sample configuration, test facilities, test method, data analysis, test results, and future plans.

Terrestrial Planet Finder (TPF)↗

Characterizing Cold Giant Planets in Reflected Light: Lessons from 50 Years of Outer Solar System Exploration and Observation

A space based coronagraph, whether as part of the WFIRST/AFTA mission or on a dedicated space telescope such as Exo-C or -S, will be able to obtain photometry and spectra of multiple gas giant planets around nearby stars, including many known from radial velocity detections. Such observations will constrain the masses, atmospheric compositions, clouds, and photochemistry of these worlds. Giant planet albedo models, such as those of Cahoy et al. (2010) and Lewis et al. (this meeting), will be crucial for mission planning and interpreting the data. However it is equally important that insights gleaned from decades of solar system imaging and spectroscopy of giant planets be leveraged to optimize both instrument design and data interpretation. To illustrate these points we will draw on examples from solar system observations, by both HST and ground based telescopes, as well as by Voyager, Galileo, and Cassini, to demonstrate the importance clouds, photochemical hazes, and various molecular absorbers play in sculpting the light scattered by solar system giant planets. We will demonstrate how measurements of the relative depths of multiple methane absorption bands of varying strengths have been key to disentangling the competing effects of gas column abundances, variations in cloud height and opacity, and scattering by high altitude photochemical hazes. We will highlight both the successes, such as the accurate remote determination of the atmospheric methane abundance of Jupiter, and a few failures from these types of observations. These lessons provide insights into technical issues facing spacecraft designers, from the selection of the most valuable camera filters to carry to the required capabilities of the flight spectrometer, as well as mission design questions such as choosing the most favorable phase angles for atmospheric characterization.

atmospheric methane abundance↗

Characterizing Cool Giant Planets in Reflected Light

While the James Webb Space Telescope will detect and characterize extrasolar planets by transit and direct imaging, a new generation of telescopes will be required to detect and characterize extrasolar planets by reflected light imaging. NASA's WFIRST space telescope, now in development, will image dozens of cool giant planets at optical wavelengths and will obtain spectra for several of the best and brightest targets. This mission will pave the way for the detection and characterization of terrestrial planets by the planned LUVOIR or HabEx space telescopes. In my presentation I will discuss the challenges that arise in the interpretation of direct imaging data and present the results of our group's effort to develop methods for maximizing the science yield from these planned missions.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

Characterizing Transiting Planets with JWST Spectra: Simulations and Retrievals

There are now well over a thousand confirmed exoplanets, ranging from hot to cold and large to small worlds. JWST spectra will provide much more detailed information on the molecular constituents, chemical compositions, and thermal properties of the atmospheres of transiting planets than is now known. We explore this by modeling clear, cloudy,and high mean molecular weight atmospheres of typical hot Jupiter, warm Neptune, warm sub-Neptune, and cool super-Earth planets and then simulating their JWST transmission and emission spectra. These simulations were performed for several JWST instrument modes over 1 - 11 microns and incorporate realistic signal and noise components. We then performed state-of the art retrievals to determine how well temperatures and abundances (CO, CO2, H2O, NH3) will be constrained and over what pressures for these different planet types. Using these results, we appraise what instrument modes will be most useful for determining what properties of the different planets, and we assess how well we can constrain their compositions, CO ratios, and temperature profiles.

extrasolar planets↗

Giant Planets in Reflected Light: What Science Can We Expect?

Interpreting the reflection spectra of cool giant planets will be a challenge. Spectra of such worlds are expected to be primarily shaped by scattering from clouds and hazes and punctuated by absorption bands of methane, water, and ammonia. While the warmest giants may be cloudless, their atmospheres will almost certainly sport substantial photochemical hazes. Furthermore the masses of most direct imaging targets will be constrained by radial velocity observations, their radii, and thus atmospheric gravity, will be imperfectly known. The uncertainty in planet radius and gravity will compound with uncertain aerosol properties to make estimation of key absorber abundances difficult. To address such concerns our group is developing atmospheric retrieval tools to constrain quantities of interest, particular gas mixing ratios. We have applied our Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to simulated data of the quality expected from the WFIRST CGI instrument and found that given sufficiently high SNR data we can confidentially identify and constrain the abundance of methane, cloud top pressures, gravity, and the star-planet-observer phase angle. In my presentation I will explain the expected characteristics of cool extrasolar giant planet reflection spectra, discuss these and other challenges in their interpretation, and summarize the science results we can expect from direct imaging observations.

methane↗

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Per-Target Flux-Level Transit Injection Tests of TPS for Data Release 25

Quantifying the ability of a transiting planet survey to recover transit signals has commonly been accomplished through Monte-Carlo injection of transit signals into the observed data and subsequent running of the signal search algorithm (Gilliland et al., 2000; Weldrake et al., 2005; Burke et al., 2006). In order to characterize the performance of the Kepler pipeline (Twicken et al., 2016; Jenkins et al., 2017) on a sample of over 200,000 stars, two complementary injection and recovery tests are utilized:1. Injection of a single transit signal per target into the image or pixel-level data, hereafter referred to as pixel-level transit injection (PLTI), with subsequent processing through the Photometric Analysis (PA), Presearch Data Conditioning (PDC), Transiting Planet Search (TPS), and Data Validation (DV) modules of the Kepler pipeline. The PLTI quantification of the Kepler pipeline's completeness has been described previously by Christiansen et al. (2015, 2016); the completeness of the final SOC 9.3 Kepler pipeline acting on the Data Release 25 (DR25) light curves is described by Christiansen (2017).2. Injection of multiple transit signals per target into the normalized flux time series data with a subsequent transit search using a stream-lined version of the Transiting Planet Search (TPS) module. This test, hereafter referred to as flux-level transit injection (FLTI), is the subject of this document. By running a heavily modified version of TPS, FLTI is able to perform many injections on selected targets and determine in some detail which injected signals are recoverable. Significant numerical efficiency gains are enabled by precomputing the data conditioning steps at the onset of TPS and limiting the search parameter space (i.e., orbital period, transit duration, and ephemeris zero-point) to a small region around each injected transit signal.The PLTI test has the advantage that it follows transit signals through all processing steps of the Kepler pipeline, and the recovered signals can be further classified as planet candidates or false positives in the exact same manner as detections from the nominal (i.e., observed) pipeline run (Twicken et al., 2016, Thompson et al., in preparation). To date, the PLTI test has been the standard means of measuring pipeline completeness averaged over large samples of targets (Christiansen et al., 2015, 2016; Christiansen, 2017). However, since the PLTI test uses only one injection per target, it does not elucidate individual-target variations in pipeline completeness due to differences in stellar properties or astrophysical variability. Thus, we developed the FLTI test to provide a numerically efficient way to fully map individual targets and explore the performance of the pipeline in greater detail. The FLTI tests thereby allow a thorough validation of the pipeline completeness models (such as window function (Burke and Catanzarite, 2017a), detection efficiency (Burke Catanzarite, 2017b), etc.) across the spectrum of Kepler targets (i.e., various astrophysical phenomena and differences in instrumental noise). Tests during development of the FLTI capability revealed that there are significant target-to-target variations in the detection efficiency.

DR25↗

Kepler Planet Detection Metrics: Per-Target Detection Contours for Data Release 25

A necessary input to planet occurrence calculations is an accurate model for the pipeline completeness (Burke et al., 2015). This document describes the use of the Kepler planet occurrence rate products in order to calculate a per-target detection contour for the measured Data Release 25 (DR25) pipeline performance. A per-target detection contour measures for a given combination of orbital period, Porb, and planet radius, Rp, what fraction of transit signals are recoverable by the Kepler pipeline (Twicken et al., 2016; Jenkins et al., 2017). The steps for calculating a detection contour follow the procedure outlined in Burke et al. (2015), but have been updated to provide improved accuracy enabled by the substantially larger database of transit injection and recovery tests that were performed on the final version (i.e., SOC 9.3) of the Kepler pipeline (Christiansen, 2017; Burke Catanzarite, 2017a). In the following sections, we describe the main inputs to the per-target detection contour and provide a worked example of the python software released with this document (Kepler Planet Occurrence Rate Tools KeplerPORTs)1 that illustrates the generation of a detection contour in practice. As background material for this document and its nomenclature, we recommend the reader be familiar with the previous method of calculating a detection contour (Section 2 of Burke et al.,2015), input parameters relevant for describing the data quantity and quality of Kepler targets (Burke Catanzarite, 2017b), and the extensive new transit injection and recovery tests of the Kepler pipeline (Christiansen et al., 2016; Burke Catanzarite, 2017a; Christiansen, 2017).

Planet Detection Metrics↗

Characterizing Transiting Planets with JWST Spectra: Simulations and Retrievals

There are now well over a thousand confirmed exoplanets, ranging from hot to cold and large to small worlds. JWST spectra will provide much more detailed information on the molecular constituents, chemical compositions, and thermal properties of the atmospheres of transiting planets than is now known. We explore this by modeling clear, cloudy,and high mean molecular weight atmospheres of typical hot Jupiter, warm Neptune, warm sub-Neptune, and cool super-Earth planets and then simulating their JWST transmission and emission spectra. These simulations were performed for several JWST instrument modes over 1 - 11 microns and incorporate realistic signal and noise components. We then performed state-of the art retrievals to determine how well temperatures and abundances (CO, CO2, H2O, NH3) will be constrained and over what pressures for these different planet types. Using these results, we appraise what instrument modes will be most useful for determining what properties of the different planets, and we assess how well we can constrain their compositions, CO ratios, and temperature profiles.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

Composition, Structure and Formation of Low-Density Planets Within 0.5 AU of Their Star

Kepler has discovered that tens of percent of sunlike stars possess one or more planets larger than Earth within 0.5 AU. Masses of dozens of small and mid-sized exoplanets have been measured using radial velocity or transit timing variations. Few transiting planets larger than 1.6 Earth radii are rocky. Rather, the planetary mass-radius diagram for planetary radius between 1.6 and 8 times that of Earth shows a tendency for mass to increase slowly with size. The scatter is larger than can be explained by observational errors and correlations with temperature, implying that the population is heterogeneous. Many Neptune-size planets have very low densities and must have a substantial fraction of their volumes occupied by hydrogen and/or helium. Models of the structure, growth and evolution of planets made of mixtures of rock and light gases will be presented and compared with observations of both individual bodies and of the characteristics of the population as a whole.

radial velocity↗

Moist Convection in the Giant Planet Atmospheres

The outer planets of our Solar System display a myriad of interesting cloud features, of different colors and sizes. The differences between the types of observed clouds suggest a complex interplay between the dynamics and chemistry at play on these atmospheres. Particularly, the stark difference between the banded structures of Jupiter and Saturn, vs the sporadic clouds on the ice giants highlights the varieties in dynamic, chemical and thermal processes that shape these atmospheres. Since the early explorations of these planets by spacecrafts, such as Voyager and Voyager 2, there are many outstanding questions about the long term stability of the observed features. One hypothesis is that the internal heat generated during the formation of these planets is transported to the upper atmosphere through latent heat release from convecting clouds (i.e., moist convection). In this review, we present evidences of moist convective activity on the gas giant atmospheres of our Solar System from remote sensing data, both from ground- and space-based observations. We detail the processes that drive moist convective activity, both in terms of the dynamics as well as the microphysical processes that shape the resulting clouds. Finally, we also discuss the effects of moist convection on shaping the large scale dynamics (such as jet structures on these planets).

Planetary Science↗

Terrestrial Planet Formation Constrained By Mars and the Structure of the Asteroid Belt

Reproducing the large Earth/Mars mass ratio requires a strong mass depletion in solids within the protoplanetary disc between 1 and 3 au. The Grand Tack model invokes a specific migration history of the giant planets to remove most of the mass initially beyond 1 au and to dynamically excite the asteroid belt. However, one could also invoke a steep density gradient created by inward drift and pile-up of small particles induced by gas drag, as has been proposed to explain the formation of close-in super-Earths. Here we show that the asteroid belt’s orbital excitation provides a crucial constraint against this scenario for the Solar system. We performed a series of simulations of terrestrial planet formation and asteroid belt evolution starting from discs of planetesimals and planetary embryos with various radial density gradients and including Jupiter and Saturn on nearly circular and coplanar orbits. Discs with shallow density gradients reproduce the dynamical excitation of the asteroid belt by gravitational self-stirring but form Mars analogues significantly more massive than the real planet. In contrast, a disc with a surface density gradient proportional to r(exp −5.5) reproduces the Earth/Mars mass ratio but leaves the asteroid belt in a dynamical state that is far colder than the real belt. We conclude that no disc profile can simultaneously explain the structure of the terrestrial planets and asteroid belt. The asteroid belt must have been depleted and dynamically excited by a different mechanism such as, for instance, in the Grand Tack scenario.

Numerical methods↗

ROCKE-3D 2.0: An Updated General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

We present the second generation of ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics), the generalized 3-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) for use in Solar System and exoplanetary simulations of rocky planet climates. ROCKE-3D version 2.0 is a descendant of GISS ModelE2.1, the flagship GCM of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) used in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) assessment. ROCKE-3D is a continuous effort to expand the capabilities of GISS ModelE to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including different atmospheric planet sizes, gravities, pressures, rotation rates, more diverse chemistries and atmospheric compositions, diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. We present in this release many more supported configurations which can serve as starting points to simulate terrestrial planets of interest. Two different radiation schemes are supported, the GISS radiation, valid for Earth-like planets, and SOCRATES, which is more generalized but requires more CPU resources. In addition, three different atmospheric compositions are supported, three ocean configurations (prescribed, q-flux, and dynamic), and two resolutions: the medium resolution (4 x 5 degrees in latitude x longitude) used in ROCKE-3D 1.0, and the fine resolution, which has double the resolution in the atmosphere and 4 times the resolution in the ocean. We quantify how the different component choices affect model results, and discuss strengths and limitations of using each component, together with how one can select which component to use. ROCKE-3D is publicly available and tutorial sessions are available for the community, greatly facilitating its use by any interested group.

ROCKE-3D↗

Magnetometer instrument team studies for the definition phase of the outer planets grand tour

The objectives of magnetic field investigations on missions to the outer planets were defined as well as an instrumentation system, a program of studies and instrument development tasks was proposed for the mission definition phase of the Outer Planets Grand Tour project. A report on the status of this program is given. Requirements were also established for the spacecraft and the mission which would insure their compatibility with the magnetic field investigation proposed for the outer planets missions and developed figures of merit for encounter trajectories. The spacecraft-instrumentation interface and the on-board data handling system were defined in various reports by the Project Team and in the reports by the Science Steering Group. The defining program for exploring the outer planets within the more restrictive constraints of the Mariner Jupiter-Saturn project included defining a limited magnetic field investigation.

Coleman, P. J., Jr.↗

Thermoelectric Outer Planets Spacecraft (TOPS)

The research and advanced development work is reported on a ballistic-mode, outer planet spacecraft using radioisotope thermoelectric generator (RTG) power. The Thermoelectric Outer Planet Spacecraft (TOPS) project was established to provide the advanced systems technology that would allow the realistic estimates of performance, cost, reliability, and scheduling that are required for an actual flight mission. A system design of the complete RTG-powered outer planet spacecraft was made; major technical innovations of certain hardware elements were designed, developed, and tested; and reliability and quality assurance concepts were developed for long-life requirements. At the conclusion of its active phase, the TOPS Project reached its principal objectives: a development and experience base was established for project definition, and for estimating cost, performance, and reliability; an understanding of system and subsystem capabilities for successful outer planets missions was achieved. The system design answered long-life requirements with massive redundancy, controlled by on-board analysis of spacecraft performance data.

Source record↗

Study of ephemeris accuracy of the minor planets

The current state of minor planet ephemerides was assessed, and the means for providing and updating these emphemerides for use by both the mission planner and the astronomer were developed. A system of obtaining data for all the numbered minor planets was planned, and computer programs for its initial mechanization were developed. The computer based system furnishes the osculating elements for all of the numbered minor planets at an adopted date of October 10, 1972, and at every 400 day interval over the years of interest. It also furnishes the perturbations in the rectangular coordinates relative to the osculating elements at every 4 day interval. Another computer program was designed and developed to integrate the perturbed motion of a group of 50 minor planets simultaneously. Sampled data resulting from the operation of the computer based systems are presented.

Brooks, D. R.↗

The evolution of the moon and the terrestrial planets

The thermal evolutions of the Moon, Mars, Venus and Mercury are calculated theoretically starting from cosmochemical condensation models. An assortment of geological, geochemical and geophysical data are used to constrain both the present day temperatures and the thermal histories of the planets' interiors. Such data imply that the planets were heated during or shortly after formation and that all the terrestrial planets started their differentiations early in their history. The moon, smallest in size, is characterized as a differentiated body with a crust, a thick solid mantle and an interior region which may be partially molten. Mars, intermediate in size, is assumed to have differentiated an Fe-FeS core. Venus is characterized as a planet not unlike the earth in many respects. Core formation has occurred probably during the first billion years after the formation. Mercury, which probably has a large core, may have a 500 km thick solid lithosphere and a partially molten core if it is assumed that some heat sources exist in the core.

Toksoez, M. N.↗