North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination
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Avraam, Charalampos↗
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Will Consumers Really Pay for Green Electricity? Comparing Stated and Revealed Preferences for Residential Programs in the United States
Public support is growing for policy initiatives to spur a transition from a fossil to renewable energy portfolio in the electricity sector. Some utilities in the United States offer programs that allow consumers to voluntarily pay premiums (0.1-7.0 cents/kWh) for electricity from renewable sources. However, it is unclear whether public support translates to paying for green electricity if given the option. Our analysis employs data from two national, longitudinal surveys on energy attitudes and willingness to pay for renewables to investigate whether environmental concerns and stated preferences for renewable energy translate to consumer behavior as measured through ratepayer participation in voluntary utility renewable energy programs known as utility green pricing. We find higher green pricing program participation rates in areas where consumers have stronger feelings about the environmental impacts of energy. Consumers in high-participation areas also have a higher stated willingness to pay for renewable energy, on average, than consumers in low-participation areas. We also find income, homeownership, and home value explain some of the difference between high- and low-participation programs. Further, program participation is lower in areas where utilities charge higher green pricing program premiums. These findings suggest that green power programs - such as utility green pricing - offer a market-based mechanism for consumers to realize their desire to purchase renewable energy. Policymakers may use these results to support further expansion of green power programs in areas where customers currently lack accessible and affordable options to act on their environmental beliefs and concerns.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Getting lost tracking the carbon footprint of hydropower
In the transition to low-carbon electricity, well-quantified estimates of carbon dynamics are needed to ensure that emissions reduction targets are achieved. Here we review the state of the science on carbon accounting for hydropower reservoirs and identify limitations and future solutions. Nearly all research on reservoir greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions has focused on individual reservoirs in isolation without considering their position in a freshwater network draining organic matter from upstream watersheds or the coordinated operation of reservoir cascades. Second, carbon inventories have extrapolated from a small, non-probabilistic sample of highly variable measurements of GHG emissions to unsampled reservoirs. A stronger statistical foundation is needed to estimate a global inventory and its uncertainty. Third, attribution to hydropower is based on ranks assigned to reservoir purpose. Instead, the physical influence of hydropower on carbon dynamics could be directly measured. Fourth, current carbon-accounting practices neglect time. A time-varying approach would quantify variation in emissions for electricity portfolios from changes in the fuel mix at different times and account for ancillary services, i.e., the ability to support the grid when variable renewables are not available without using natural gas. Reservoirs also sequester a significant portion of inflowing carbon in sediments and slow the carbon cycle by delaying the return of carbon to the atmosphere for decades to centuries. Together, these refinements would help to illuminate pathways toward meeting energy demand with the longest-possible delay in returning carbon to the atmosphere and without adding ancient sources to the pool of carbon cycling through aquatic ecosystems.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Electricity and Transportation Policies as a Means to Reduce CO2 Emissions in the United States: A Multi-Model Assessment
Two common energy policy instruments in the United States are tax incentives and technology standards. Although these instruments have been shown to be less cost-effective as a means to reduce CO2 emissions than direct emissions pricing mechanisms, it can be challenging to compare the CO2 emissions reduction costs of such policies across sectors, given the wide range in estimates for any given policy and inconsistencies in how such estimates are constructed across studies. This study addresses this analytical gap by simultaneously comparing the cost-effectiveness of policies across the electricity and transportation sectors using three publicly available US energy system models (EM-NEMS, ReEDS, and GCAM-USA). Four policies are explicitly compared: wind and solar tax credits, a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), a renewable fuel standard (RFS), and an electric vehicle (EV) tax credit. An economy-wide carbon tax is used as a benchmark for cost-effectiveness. Results from this study confirm prior insights about the cost-effectiveness of economy-wide carbon pricing relative to sectoral instruments but also reveal several novel insights about particular sectoral policies. Specifically, this study finds that (1) current electricity tax incentives provide uneven support for wind and solar technologies, (2) despite known inefficiencies, renewable energy policies in the electricity sector are less expensive than earlier estimates due to technology advancement and changes in market conditions, (3) within transportation, an expanded RFS with increasing advanced biofuel targets is more cost-effective than an EV tax credit extension under plausible assumptions, (4) EV incentives lead to a rebound in conventional vehicle fuel economy that further erodes cost-effectiveness, and (5) the change in policy costs over time is not known a priori, but the relative cost ordering among these policies does not depend on the timeframe of analysis. These results are largely robust to the underlying modeling framework, increasing the confidence with which they can be applied to climate policy evaluation.
economics↗
Building a pathway to Mars: Mars technology program analysis and case study
This paper focuses on the analysis and identification of technology development portfolios designed to meet the scientific and mission objectives of the Mars Exploration Program.
technology portfolio R&D planning Mars optimizatio↗
Building a pathway to Mars: Mars Technology Program analysis and case study
This paper focuses on the analysis and identification of technology development portfolios designed to meet the scientific and mission objectives of the Mars Exploration Program.
Technology portfolio r and d planning Mars↗
NASA's Physics of the Cosmos and Cosmic Origins Technology Development Programs
NASA's Physics of the Cosmos (PCOS) and Cosmic Origins (COR) Program Offices, established in 2011, reside at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The offices serve as the implementation arm for the Astrophysics Division at NASA Headquarters. We present an overview of the programs' technology development activities and technology investment portfolio, funded by NASA's Strategic Astrophysics Technology (SAT) program. We currently fund 19 technology advancements to enable future PCOS and COR missions to help answer the questions "How did our universe begin and evolve?" and "How did galaxies, stars, and planets come to be?" We discuss the process for addressing community-provided technology gaps and Technology Management Board (TMB)-vetted prioritization and investment recommendations that inform the SAT program. The process improves the transparency and relevance of our technology investments, provides the community a voice in the process, and promotes targeted external technology investments by defining needs and identifying customers. The programs' goal is to promote and support technology development needed to enable missions envisioned by the National Research Council's (NRC) "New Worlds, New Horizons in Astronomy and Astrophysics" (NWNH) Decadal Survey report [1] and the Astrophysics Implementation Plan (AIP) [2]. These include technology development for dark energy, gravitational waves, X-ray and inflation probe science, and a 4m-class UV/optical telescope to conduct imaging and spectroscopy studies, as a post-Hubble observatory with significantly improved sensitivity and capability.
Technology Management Board (TMB)↗
A Tool for Measuring NASA's Aeronautics Research Progress Toward Planned Strategic Community Outcomes
Description of a tool for portfolio analysis of NASA's Aeronautics research progress toward planned community strategic Outcomes is presented. For efficiency and speed, the tool takes advantage of a function developed in Excels Visual Basic for Applications. The strategic planning process for determining the community Outcomes is also briefly discussed. Stakeholder buy-in, partnership performance, progress of supporting Technical Challenges, and enablement forecast are used as the criteria for evaluating progress toward Outcomes. A few illustrative examples of using the tool are also presented.
Thrusts↗
Chapter 7: Integrative Science
A key part of DOE's mission is addressing energy and environmental problems through transformative science and technology, which includes discovering and developing new energy systems and understanding and predicting their consequences at local to global scales. Enabling these advances are the fundamental scientific discoveries and tools delivered by the Office of Science. Implicit in DOE's mission is the need to understand the complex, multiscale interactions between energy systems and the environment. Attaining this knowledge requires an integrated research portfolio that promotes understanding and discovery across different subsystems of the overall energy system and enables sustainable prosperity through a vibrant bioeconomy.
Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Com↗
ECRAM Materials, Devices, Circuits and Architectures: A Perspective
Abstract Non‐von‐Neumann computing using neuromorphic systems based on two‐terminal resistive nonvolatile memory elements has emerged as a promising approach, but its full potential has not been realized due to the lack of materials and devices with the appropriate attributes. Unlike memristors, which require large write currents to drive phase transformations or filament growth, electrochemical random access memory (ECRAM) decouples the “write” and “read” operations using a “gate” electrode to tune the conductance state through charge‐transfer reactions, and every electron transferred through the external circuit in ECRAM corresponds to the migration of ≈1 ion used to store analogue information. Like static dopants in traditional semiconductors, electrochemically inserted ions modulate the conductivity by locally perturbing a host's electronic structure; however, ECRAM does so in a dynamic and reversible manner. The resulting change in conductance can span orders of magnitude, from gradual increments needed for analog elements, to large, abrupt changes for dynamically reconfigurable adaptive architectures. In this in‐depth perspective, the history of ECRAM, the recent progress in devices spanning organic, inorganic, and 2D materials, circuits, architectures, the rich portfolio of challenging, fundamental questions, and how ECRAM can be harnessed to realize a new paradigm for low‐power neuromorphic computing are discussed.
Talin, A. Alec↗
Accelerating Nature: Induced Atomic Order in Equiatomic FeNi
Abstract The production of locally atomically ordered FeNi (known by its meteoric mineral name, tetrataenite) is confirmed in bulk samples by simultaneous conversion X‐ray and backscattered γ‐ray 57 Fe Mössbauer spectroscopy. Up to 22 volume percent of the tetragonal tetrataenite phase is quantified in samples thermally treated under simultaneous magnetic‐ and stress‐field conditions for a period of 6 weeks, with the remainder identified as the cubic FeNi alloy. In contrast, all precursor samples consist only of the cubic FeNi alloy. Data from the processed alloys are validated using Mössbauer parameters derived from natural meteoritic tetrataenite. The meteoritic tetrataenite exhibits a substantially higher degree of atomic order than do the processed samples, consistent with their low uniaxial magnetocrystalline anisotropy energy of ≈1 kJ·m −3 . These results suggest that targeted refinements to the processing conditions of FeNi will foster greater atomic order and increased magnetocrystalline anisotropy, leading to an enhanced magnetic energy product. These outcomes also suggest that deductions concerning paleomagnetic conditions of the solar system, as derived from meteoritic data, may warrant re‐examination and re‐evaluation. Additionally, this work strengthens the argument that tetrataenite may indeed become a member of the advanced permanent magnet portfolio, helping to meet rapidly escalating green energy imperatives.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
When Machine Learning Meets 2D Materials: A Review
The availability of an ever-expanding portfolio of 2D materials with rich internal degrees of freedom (spin, excitonic, valley, sublattice, and layer pseudospin) together with the unique ability to tailor heterostructures made layer by layer in a precisely chosen stacking sequence and relative crystallographic alignments, offers an unprecedented platform for realizing materials by design. However, the breadth of multi-dimensional parameter space and massive data sets involved is emblematic of complex, resource-intensive experimentation, which not only challenges the current state of the art but also renders exhaustive sampling untenable. To this end, machine learning, a very powerful data-driven approach and subset of artificial intelligence, is a potential game-changer, enabling a cheaper – yet more efficient – alternative to traditional computational strategies. It is also a new paradigm for autonomous experimentation for accelerated discovery and machine-assisted design of functional 2D materials and heterostructures. Here, the study reviews the recent progress and challenges of such endeavors, and highlight various emerging opportunities in this frontier research area.
2D materials↗
A step towards the final frontier: Lessons learned from acceptance testing of the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system at ORNL
Summary In this article, we summarize the deployment of the Air Force Weather (AFW) HPC11 system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) including the process followed to successfully complete acceptance testing of the system. HPC11 is the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system that has been successfully released to its user community in a federal facility. HPC11 consists of two identical 800‐node supercomputers, Fawbush and Miller, with access to two independent and identical lustre parallel file systems. HPC11 is equipped with Slingshot 10 interconnect technology and relies on the HPE Performance Cluster Manager software for system configuration. ORNL has a clearly defined acceptance testing process used to ensure that every new system deployed can provide the necessary capabilities to support user workloads. We worked closely with HPE and AFW to develop a set of tests that used the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office's Unified Model and 4‐dimensional variational data assimilation. We also included benchmarks and applications from the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility portfolio to fully exercise the HPE/Cray programming environment and evaluate the functionality and performance of the system. Acceptance testing of HPC11 required parallel execution of each element on Fawbush and Miller. In addition, careful coordination was needed to ensure successful acceptance of the newly deployed lustre file systems alongside the compute resources. In this work, we present test results from specific system components and provide an overview of the issues identified, challenges encountered, and the lessons learned along the way.
Melesse Vergara, Verónica G.↗
Key Drivers for Offshore Wind Deployment in the Western United States
The western coast of the United States has abundant natural resources, including wind, sun, and water. Despite strong ocean winds, offshore wind energy (OSW) in the Western United States is in the early stages of technology development due largely to the deep water off the coast, which requires floating platforms rather than fixed‐bottom turbines. Floating OSW increases the technical difficulty of installation and thus the cost relative to both fixed‐bottom OSW and land‐based turbines. OSW is a potential generation option to help meet increasing demand on the west coast of the United States because it likely has fewer land‐use conflicts than other technologies and complements sources in the existing electricity supply by providing energy during times of high system stress. This paper examines the possible drivers and barriers to OSW deployment on the West Coast using the National Laboratory of the Rockies' state‐of‐the‐art capacity expansion model and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model. We use ReEDS to explore a multitude of future scenarios looking at key drivers for OSW deployment, including variations on the cost of OSW, electricity demand growth, and the availability of competing technologies to examine the factors that may play a role in OSW growth. Assuming coastal state policies such as renewable portfolio and clean energy standards remain in place, we find that OSW can play a role in meeting electricity demand and provide energy during stressful grid conditions and find that deployment from the least‐cost investment model ranges from 7.6 to 38 GW by 2045.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Estimating the impacts of natural gas power generation growth on solar electricity development: PJM's evolving resource mix and ramping capability
Abstract Expansion of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and natural gas‐fired generation capacity in the United States has put a renewed spotlight on methods and tools for power system planning and grid modernization. This article investigates the impact of increasing natural gas‐fired electricity generation assets on installed distributed solar PV systems in the Pennsylvania–New Jersey–Maryland (PJM) Interconnection in the United States over the period 2008–2018. We developed an empirical dynamic panel data model using the system‐generalized method of moments (system‐GMM) estimation approach. The model accounts for the impact of past and current technical, market and policy changes over time, forecasting errors, and business cycles by controlling for PJM jurisdictions‐level effects and year fixed effects. Using an instrumental variable to control for endogeneity, we concluded that natural gas does not crowd out renewables like solar PV in the PJM capacity market; however, we also found considerable heterogeneity. Such heterogeneity was displayed in the relationship between solar PV systems and electricity prices. More interestingly, we found no evidence suggesting any relationship between distributed solar PV development and nuclear, coal, hydro, or electricity consumption. In addition, considering policy effects of state renewable portfolio standards, net energy metering, differences in the PJM market structure, and other demand and cost‐related factors proved important in assessing their impacts on solar PV generation capacity, including energy storage as a non‐wire alternative policy technique. This article is categorized under: Photovoltaics > Economics and Policy Fossil Fuels > Climate and Environment Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
CubeSats for Gamma-Ray Astronomy [Book Chapter]
After many years of flying in space primarily for educational purposes, CubeSats – tiny satellites with form factors corresponding to arrangements of “1U” units, or cubes, each 10 cm on a side – have come into their own as valuable platforms for technology advancement and scientific investigations. CubeSats offer comparatively rapid, low-cost access to space for payloads that can be built, tested, and operated by relatively small teams, with substantial contributions from students and early career researchers. Continuing advances in compact, low-power detectors, readout electronics, and flight computers have now enabled X-ray and gamma-ray sensing payloads that can fit within the constraints of CubeSat missions, permitting in-orbit demonstrations of new techniques and innovative high-energy astronomy observations. Gamma-ray-sensing CubeSats are certain to make an important contribution in the new era of multi-messenger, time-domain astronomy by detecting and localizing bright transients such as gamma-ray bursts, solar flares, and terrestrial gamma-ray flashes; however, other astrophysical science areas requiring long observations in a low-background environment, including gamma-ray polarimetry, studies of nuclear lines, and measurement of diffuse backgrounds, will likely benefit as well. Here we present the primary benefits of CubeSats for high-energy astronomy, highlight the scientific areas currently or soon to be studied, and review the missions that are currently operating, under development, or proposed. A rich portfolio of CubeSats for gamma-ray astronomy already exists, and the potential for a broad range of creative and scientifically productive missions in the near future is very high.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
The impact of development priorities on power system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa faces unique barriers to electricity development due to the large proportion of the population that is un-electrified and the prevalence of rural populations. Typically, power system expansion planning models assume all potential consumers can be immediately electrified. This assumption is unrealistic in sub-Saharan Africa, where electrification will likely be a gradual process over a number of years. Furthermore, since a large proportion of the population in sub-Saharan Africa is located in rural regions, the prioritization of these regions may impact how the grid develops. In this research, we develop a multi-period optimization model for power generation and transmission system expansion planning in sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast to existing models, which assume full electrification, we consider a variety of electrification policies and analyze the impact of varying the electrification rate and policy on the cost and resources selected for power system expansion. We test our model on a case study of Rwanda. We find that varying the year in which full electrification is reached has a larger impact on cost and generation capacity than varying the electrification policy does, although, when urban and rural regions are considered equitably, more rooftop solar is built. Varying the electrification policies has a larger impact on transmission expansion than on generation expansion and this impact is amplified when starting from zero initial system capacity rather than the original Rwanda system. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis shows that tightening the bounds on CO 2eq emissions has a large impact on the generation portfolio and cost.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Preliminary studies on diversion and misuse for TRISO-fueled heat-pipe-cooled microreactors
Microreactors are being developed by multiple reactor designers to mass-produce nuclear facilities for worldwide deployment. Including microreactors in a country’s energy portfolio introduces new concerns for international safeguards regarding the number of reactor locations. Microreactors have smaller quantities of nuclear material compared to current light-water reactors, which makes diverting enough material for clandestine purposes difficult for a single reactor. Diversion or misuse of multiple microreactors to obtain a significant quantity introduces a new acquisition pathway. This work examines diversion and misuse scenarios for a realistic heat-pipe-cooled microreactor to understand how these scenarios would effect reactor operations to determine if monitoring key parameters could reduce the burden of inspection on monitoring agencies. Here, we determined misuse caused too drastic of an effect on core operations to be a valid acquisition pathway for the realistic heat-pipe-cooled microreactor. Diversion was explored across varying levels of severity, where potential diversion scenarios could yield one significant quantity of material from between six and eleven microreactors. Through examining the critical control drum angle, excess reactivity, control drum worth, and power distribution changes from nominal were detected over the operational lifetime, which could indicate a divergence from normal operations.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗