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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Modeling Freedom From Progression for Standard-Risk Medulloblastoma: A Mathematical Tumor Control Model With Multiple Modes of Failure

Purpose: As pediatric medulloblastoma (MB) is a relatively rare disease, it is important to extract the maximum information from trials and cohort studies. Here, a framework was developed for modeling tumor control with multiple modes of failure and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB, using published pattern of failure data. Methods and Materials: Outcome data for standard-risk MB published after 1990 with pattern of relapse information were used to fit a tumor control dose-response model addressing failures in both the high-dose boost volume and the elective craniospinal volume. Estimates of 5-year event-free survival from 2 large randomized MB trials were used to model the time-to-progression distribution. Uncertainty in freedom from progression (FFP) was estimated by Monte Carlo sampling over the statistical uncertainty in input data. Results: The estimated 5-year FFP (95% confidence intervals [CI]) for craniospinal doses of 15, 18, 24, and 36 Gy while maintaining 54 Gy to the posterior fossa was 77% (95% CI, 70%-81%), 78% (95% CI, 73%-81%), 79% (95% CI, 76%-82%), and 80% (95% CI, 77%-84%) respectively. The uncertainty in FFP was considerably larger for craniospinal doses below 18 Gy, reflecting the lack of data in the lower dose range. Conclusions: Estimates of tumor control and time-to-progression for standard-risk MB provides a data-driven setting for hypothesis generation or power calculations for prospective trials, taking the uncertainties into account. The presented methods can also be applied to incorporate further risk-stratification for example based on molecular biomarkers, when the necessary data become available.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-throughput spin-bath characterization of spin defects in semiconductors

Detailed knowledge of the local environments of spin defects in semiconductors, such as nitrogenvacancy (NV) centers in diamond or divacancies in silicon carbide, is crucial for optimizing control and entanglement protocols in quantum sensing and information applications. However, at present a direct experimental characterization of individual defect environments is not scalable, as conventional spin-bath measurements are time consuming and difficult to automate. Achieving high-throughput characterization requires short experiments to probe the spin bath. However, with fewer and noisier measurements, the inverse problem of recovering spin-bath properties from measured data becomes ill posed, with multiple spin baths having a high likelihood of yielding the same data. In this work, we present a set of computational tools to resolve the ill-posed inverse problem of recovering the atomic positions and hyperfine couplings of random nuclei surrounding spin defects from sparse, noisy experimental coherence data, which can be obtained in hours. Here, we use a trans-dimensional Bayesian approach that incorporates ab initio data to yield full posterior distributions over nuclear spin environments, enabling robust recovery from limited data. We also provide practical tools and guidelines to determine the limits of detectability for hyperfine couplings under specific dynamical decoupling sequences and sampling conditions. In addition, we demonstrate how the tools developed here, in combination with ab initio simulations of spin baths, can guide the design of efficient experimental protocols for application-specific high-throughput screening. To showcase the utility of our approach, we apply it to design fast dynamical decoupling experiments to characterize the spin baths often individual NV centers in diamond. While the primary focus is on accelerating spin-bath characterization of spin defects, this Bayesian approach also lays the foundation for digital-twin studies of spin defects, where a virtual model of the spin-defect system evolves in real time with ongoing experimental measurements. Together, the set of tools we designed and applied paves the way for scalable deployment of spin defects in semiconductors for quantum sensing and information applications.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-170: Evaluation of Rotational Errors in Proton Therapy Planning of Lung Cancer

Purpose: To investigate the impact of rotational (roll, yaw, and pitch) errors in proton therapy planning of lung cancer. Methods: A lung cancer case treated at our center was used in this retrospective study. The original plan was generated using two proton fields (posterior-anterior and left-lateral) with XiO treatment planning system (TPS) and delivered using uniform scanning proton therapy system. First, the computed tomography (CT) set of original lung treatment plan was re-sampled for rotational (roll, yaw, and pitch) angles ranged from −5° to +5°, with an increment of 2.5°. Second, 12 new proton plans were generated in XiO using the 12 re-sampled CT datasets. The same beam conditions, isocenter, and devices were used in new treatment plans as in the original plan. All 12 new proton plans were compared with original plan for planning target volume (PTV) coverage and maximum dose to spinal cord (cord Dmax). Results: PTV coverage was reduced in all 12 new proton plans when compared to that of original plan. Specifically, PTV coverage was reduced by 0.03% to 1.22% for roll, by 0.05% to 1.14% for yaw, and by 0.10% to 3.22% for pitch errors. In comparison to original plan, the cord Dmax in new proton plans was reduced by 8.21% to 25.81% for +2.5° to +5° pitch, by 5.28% to 20.71% for +2.5° to +5° yaw, and by 5.28% to 14.47% for −2.5° to −5° roll. In contrast, cord Dmax was increased by 3.80% to 3.86% for −2.5° to −5° pitch, by 0.63% to 3.25% for −2.5° to −5° yaw, and by 3.75% to 4.54% for +2.5° to +5° roll. Conclusion: PTV coverage was reduced by up to 3.22% for rotational error of 5°. The cord Dmax could increase or decrease depending on the direction of rotational error, beam angles, and the location of lung tumor.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Dosimetric quality, accuracy, and deliverability of modulated radiotherapy treatments for spinal metastases

Cancer often metastasizes to the vertebra, and such metastases can be treated successfully using simple, static posterior or opposed-pair radiation fields. However, in some cases, including when re-irradiation is required, spinal cord avoidance becomes necessary and more complex treatment plans must be used. This study evaluated 16 sample intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) treatment plans designed to treat 6 typical vertebral and paraspinal volumes using a standard prescription, with the aim of investigating the advantages and limitations of these treatment techniques and providing recommendations for their optimal use in vertebral treatments. Treatment plan quality and beam complexity metrics were evaluated using the Treatment And Dose Assessor (TADA) code. A portal-imaging–based quality assurance (QA) system was used to evaluate treatment delivery accuracy, and radiochromic film measurements were used to provide high-resolution verification of treatment plan dose accuracy, especially in the steep dose gradient regions between each vertebral target and spinal cord. All treatment modalities delivered approximately the same doses and the same levels of dose heterogeneity to each planning target volume (PTV), although the minimum PTV doses in the vertebral plans were substantially lower than the prescription, because of the requirement that the plans meet a strict constraint on the dose to the spinal cord and cord planning risk volume (PRV). All plans met required dose constraints on all organs at risk, and all measured PTV-cord dose gradients were steeper than planned. Beam complexity analysis suggested that the IMRT treatment plans were more deliverable (less complex, leading to greater QA success) than the VMAT treatment plans, although the IMRT plans also took more time to deliver. The accuracy and deliverability of VMAT treatment plans were found to be substantially increased by limiting the number of monitor units (MU) per beam at the optimization stage, and thereby limiting beam modulation complexity. The VMAT arcs that were optimized with MU limitation had higher QA pass rates as well as higher modulation complexity scores (less complexity), lower modulation indices (less modulation), lower MU per beam, larger beam segments, and fewer small apertures than the VMAT arcs that were optimized without MU limitation. It is recommended that VMAT treatments for vertebral volumes, where the PTV abuts or surrounds the spinal cord, should be optimized with MU limitation. IMRT treatments may be preferable to the VMAT treatments, for dosimetry and deliverability reasons, but may be inappropriate for some patients because of their increased treatment delivery time.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of modelled passive margin stratigraphy to variations in sea level, sediment supply and subsidence

Abstract We produced a 10 Myr synthetic stratigraphic section using a forward stratigraphic model that generates marine deltaic stratigraphy over geological timescales. We recursively fit the model using a Bayesian inversion algorithm to test: (1) if it could be accurately reconstructed; (2) if the parameters used to create it could be recovered; and (3) the sensitivity of the model output to given model parameters and the attendant physical processes. The original synthetic stratigraphic section was produced with cyclical sea‐level variations of 40 and 30 m with 2.4 and 10 Myr periods respectively. Sediment was also supplied cyclically, in 2.4 and 10 Myr cycles with amplitudes of 30 and 80 tons/100 kyr, respectively, varying from a mean of 232 tons/100 kyr. Parameter values were sampled to fit the model using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, resulting in a ±5 m (1σ) variation between the experimental output and the original. Sea level varied by ±7 m (1σ) within the posterior distribution of parameters. As a result, both the 10 Myr and 2.4 Myr sea‐level cycles could be extracted from the original output. The variation in sediment supply was approximately ±38 tons/100 kyr (1σ) and, as a result, only the larger long‐term supply variations could be accurately recovered in refitting the model. The variation in thermal, flexural and total subsidence across those parameter sets is less than ±10 m (1σ). The original section experienced 150 m of total subsidence at the depocentre. Our results demonstrate the distinct and interpretable imprint of sea level and subsidence on continental margin stratigraphy can be quantified. Moreover, we conclude that sea‐level change produces a defined effect on the geometries of stratigraphic architecture, and that techniques applied for the purpose of delineating sea‐level variation from continental margin strata have a well‐founded conceptual basis.

Schmelz, William J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Project Dinos I: A joint lensing–dynamics constraint on the deviation from the power law in the mass profile of massive ellipticals

The mass distribution in massive elliptical galaxies encodes their evolutionary history, thus providing an avenue to constrain the baryonic astrophysics in their evolution. The power-law assumption for the radial mass profile in ellipticals has been sufficient to describe several observables to the noise level, including strong lensing and stellar dynamics. In this paper, we quantitatively constrained any deviation, or the lack thereof, from the power-law mass profile in massive ellipticals through joint lensing–dynamics analysis of a large statistical sample with 77 galaxy–galaxy lens systems. We performed an improved and uniform lens modelling of these systems from archival Hubble Space Telescope imaging using the automated lens modelling pipeline dolphin. We combined the lens model posteriors with the stellar dynamics to constrain the deviation from the power law after accounting for the line-of-sight lensing effects, a first for analyses on galaxy–galaxy lenses. We find that the Sloan Lens ACS Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.2 are consistent with the power-law profile within 1.1σ (2.8σ) and the Strong Lensing Legacy Survey lens galaxies with a mean redshift of 0.6 are consistent within 0.8σ (2.1σ), for a spatially constant (Osipkov–Merritt) stellar anisotropy profile. We adopted the spatially constant anisotropy profile as our baseline choice based on previous dynamical observables of local ellipticals. However, spatially resolved stellar kinematics of lens galaxies are necessary to differentiate between the two anisotropy models. Future studies will use our lens models to constrain the mass distribution individually in the dark matter and baryonic components.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Disentangling Time-series Spectra with Gaussian Processes: Applications to Radial Velocity Analysis

Measurements of radial velocity variations from the spectroscopic monitoring of stars and their companions are essential for a broad swath of astrophysics; these measurements provide access to the fundamental physical properties that dictate all phases of stellar evolution and facilitate the quantitative study of planetary systems. The conversion of those measurements into both constraints on the orbital architecture and individual component spectra can be a serious challenge, however, especially for extreme flux ratio systems and observations with relatively low sensitivity. Gaussian processes define sampling distributions of flexible, continuous functions that are well-motivated for modeling stellar spectra, enabling proficient searches for companion lines in time-series spectra. We introduce a new technique for spectral disentangling, where the posterior distributions of the orbital parameters and intrinsic, rest-frame stellar spectra are explored simultaneously without needing to invoke cross-correlation templates. To demonstrate its potential, this technique is deployed on red-optical time-series spectra of the mid-M-dwarf binary LP661-13. We report orbital parameters with improved precision compared to traditional radial velocity analysis and successfully reconstruct the primary and secondary spectra. We discuss potential applications for other stellar and exoplanet radial velocity techniques and extensions to time-variable spectra. The code used in this analysis is freely available as an open-source Python package.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Prospects for direct detection of dark matter in an effective theory approach

We perform the first comprehensive analysis of the prospects for direct detection of dark matter with future ton-scale detectors in the general 11-dimensional effective theory of isoscalar dark matter-nucleon interactions mediated by a heavy spin-1 or spin-0 particle. The theory includes 8 momentum and velocity dependent dark matter-nucleon interaction operators, besides the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent operators. From a variegated sample of 27 benchmark points selected in the parameter space of the theory, we simulate independent sets of synthetic data for ton-scale Germanium and Xenon detectors. From the synthetic data, we then extract the marginal posterior probability density functions and the profile likelihoods of the model parameters. The associated Bayesian credible regions and frequentist confidence intervals allow us to assess the prospects for direct detection of dark matter at the 27 benchmark points. First, we analyze the data assuming the knowledge of the correct dark matter nucleon-interaction type, as it is commonly done for the familiar spin-independent and spin-dependent interactions. Then, we analyze the simulations extracting the dark matter-nucleon interaction type from the data directly, in contrast to standard analyses. This second approach requires an extensive exploration of the full 11-dimensional parameter space of the dark matter-nucleon effective theory. Interestingly, we identify 5 scenarios where the dark matter mass and the dark matter-nucleon interaction type can be reconstructed from the data simultaneously. We stress the importance of extracting the dark matter nucleon-interaction type from the data directly, discussing the main challenges found addressing this complex 11-dimensional problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable stochastic halo occupation distribution

ABSTRACT In this work, we demonstrate how differentiable stochastic sampling techniques developed in the context of deep reinforcement learning can be used to perform efficient parameter inference over stochastic, simulation-based, forward models. As a particular example, we focus on the problem of estimating parameters of halo occupation distribution (HOD) models that are used to connect galaxies with their dark matter haloes. Using a combination of continuous relaxation and gradient re-parametrization techniques, we can obtain well-defined gradients with respect to HOD parameters through discrete galaxy catalogue realizations. Having access to these gradients allows us to leverage efficient sampling schemes, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, and greatly speed up parameter inference. We demonstrate our technique on a mock galaxy catalogue generated from the Bolshoi simulation using a standard HOD model and find near-identical posteriors as standard Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques with an increase of ∼8× in convergence efficiency. Our differentiable HOD model also has broad applications in full forward model approaches to cosmic structure and cosmological analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-333: Dosimetric Impact of Rotational Error On the Target Coverage in IMPT Lung Cancer Plans

Purpose: The main purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of rotational (yaw, roll, and pitch) error on the planning target volume (PTV) coverage in lung cancer plans generated by intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT). Methods: In this retrospective study, computed tomography (CT) dataset of previously treated lung case was used. IMPT plan were generated on the original CT dataset using left-lateral (LL) and posterior-anterior (PA) beams for a total dose of 74 Gy[RBE] with 2 Gy[RBE] per fraction. In order to investigate the dosimetric impact of rotational error, 12 new CT datasets were generated by re-sampling the original CT dataset for rotational (roll, yaw, and pitch) angles ranged from −5° to +5°, with an increment of 2.5°. A total of 12 new IMPT plans were generated based on the re-sampled CT datasets using beam parameters identical to the ones in the original IMPT plan. All treatment plans were generated in XiO treatment planning system. The PTV coverage (i.e., dose received by 95% of the PTV volume, D95) in new IMPT plans were then compared with the PTV coverage in the original IMPT plan. Results: Rotational errors caused the reduction in the PTV coverage in all 12 new IMPT plans when compared to the original IMPT lung plan. Specifically, the PTV coverage was reduced by 4.94% to 50.51% for yaw, by 4.04% to 23.74% for roll, and by 5.21% to 46.88% for pitch errors. Conclusion: Unacceptable dosimetric results were observed in new IMPT plans as the PTV coverage was reduced by up to 26.87% and 50.51% for rotational error of 2.5° and 5°, respectively. Further investigation is underway in evaluating the PTV coverage loss in the IMPT lung cancer plans for smaller rotational angle change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-J-119: What Effect Have the Volume Defined in the Alignment Clipbox for Cervical Cancer Using Automatic Registration Methods for Cone- Beam CT Verification?

Purpose: To investigate the impact of different clipbox volumes with automated registration techniques using commercially available software with on board volumetric imaging(OBI) for treatment verification in cervical cancer patients. Methods: Fifty cervical cancer patients received daily CBCT scans(on-board imaging v1.5 system, Varian Medical Systems) during the first treatment week and weekly thereafter were included this analysis. A total of 450 CBCT scans were registered to the planning CTscan using pelvic clipbox(clipbox-Pelvic) and around PTV clip box(clipbox- PTV). The translations(anterior-posterior, left-right, superior-inferior) and the rotations(yaw, pitch and roll) errors for each matches were recorded. The setup errors and the systematic and random errors for both of the clip-boxes were calculated. Paired Samples t test was used to analysis the differences between clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV. Results: . The SD of systematic error(σ) was 1.0mm, 2.0mm,3.2mm and 1.9mm,2.3mm, 3.0mm in the AP, LR and SI directions for clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV, respectively. The average random error(Σ)was 1.7mm, 2.0mm,4.2mm and 1.7mm,3.4mm, 4.4mm in the AP, LR and SI directions for clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV, respectively. But, only the SI direction was acquired significantly differences between two image registration volumes(p=0.002,p=0.01 for mean and SD). For rotations, the yaw mean/SD and the pitch SD were acquired significantly differences between clipbox-Pelvic and clipbox-PTV. Conclusion: The defined volume for Image registration is important for cervical cancer when 3D/3D match was used. The alignment clipbox can effect the setup errors obtained. Further analysis is need to determine the optimal defined volume to use the image registration in cervical cancer. Conflict of interest: none.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2008

Joint Bayesian Component Separation and CMB Power Spectrum Estimation

We describe and implement an exact, flexible, and computationally efficient algorithm for joint component separation and CMB power spectrum estimation, building on a Gibbs sampling framework. Two essential new features are (1) conditional sampling of foreground spectral parameters and (2) joint sampling of all amplitude-type degrees of freedom (e.g., CMB, foreground pixel amplitudes, and global template amplitudes) given spectral parameters. Given a parametric model of the foreground signals, we estimate efficiently and accurately the exact joint foreground- CMB posterior distribution and, therefore, all marginal distributions such as the CMB power spectrum or foreground spectral index posteriors. The main limitation of the current implementation is the requirement of identical beam responses at all frequencies, which restricts the analysis to the lowest resolution of a given experiment. We outline a future generalization to multiresolution observations. To verify the method, we analyze simple models and compare the results to analytical predictions. We then analyze a realistic simulation with properties similar to the 3 yr WMAP data, downgraded to a common resolution of 3 deg FWHM. The results from the actual 3 yr WMAP temperature analysis are presented in a companion Letter.

numerical↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selection of a Pair of Experiments to Optimally Reduce Uncertainty in Targeted Nuclear Data

We propose a novel process to select a pair of differential and integral experiments that best reduce uncertainties in targeted 239 ⁢Pu nuclear data while compressing the current nuclear data pipeline from 20 to 3 years. 239⁢ Pu nuclear data are poorly understood for neutrons in the intermediate energy range due to sparsity and uncertainty in historical experiments. New experiments targeting this range will enable better understanding of these nuclear data, but choosing the ideal experiments to conduct is challenging. Beginning with a prior distribution represented by samples of nuclear data generated from theory, generalized least squares adjustments are made to incorporate data from historical experiments. To quantify potential uncertainty reduction obtainable from a pair of candidate experiments, we compute the D-optimality criterion of the posterior covariance of intermediate energy range nuclear data compared to the equivalent covariance after additional adjustment to the pair of candidate experiments. Repeating the process for each of many candidate pairs facilitates the final selection. Results support 63⁢ Cu total cross section measurements for differential experiments and alumina and alumina/graphite configurations for integral experiments. This analysis enables choosing differential and integral experiments to be executed concurrently while shortening decision times relative to the current nuclear data pipeline.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Combining Emergent Constraints for Climate Sensitivity

A method is proposed for combining information from several emergent constraints into a probabilistic estimate for a climate sensitivity proxy Y such as equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). The method is based on fitting a multivariate Gaussian PDF for Y and the emergent constraints using an ensemble of global climate models (GCMs); it can be viewed as a form of multiple linear regression of Y on the constraints. The method accounts for uncertainties in sampling this multidimensional PDF with a small number of models, for observational uncertainties in the constraints, and for overconfidence about the correlation of the constraints with the climate sensitivity. Its general form (Method C) accounts for correlations between the constraints. Method C becomes less robust when some constraints are too strongly related to each other; this can be mitigated using regularization approaches such as ridge regression. An illuminating special case, Method U, neglects any correlations between constraints except through their mutual relationship to the climate proxy; it is more robust to small GCM sample size and is appealingly interpretable. These methods are applied to ECS and the climate feedback parameter using a previously published set of 11 possible emergent constraints derived from climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The ±2σ posterior range of ECS for Method C with no overconfidence adjustment is 4.3 ± 0.7 K. For Method U with a large overconfidence adjustment, it is 4.0 ± 1.3 K. This study adds confidence to past findings that most constraints predict higher climate sensitivity than the CMIP mean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

MRI-Guided Percutaneous Biopsy of Mediastinal Masses Using a Large Bore Magnet: Technical Feasibility

ObjectiveTo evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and safety of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-guided percutaneous biopsy of mediastinal masses performed using a wide-bore high-field scanner.Materials and MethodsThis is a retrospective study of 16 consecutive patients (8 male, 8 female; mean age 74 years) who underwent MRI-guided core needle biopsy of a mediastinal mass between February 2010 and January 2014. Size and location of lesion, approach taken, time for needle placement, overall duration of procedure, and post-procedural complications were evaluated. Technical success rates and correlation with surgical pathology (where available) were assessed.ResultsTarget lesions were located in the anterior (n = 13), middle (n = 2), and posterior mediastinum (n = 1), respectively. Mean size was 7.2 cm (range 3.6–11 cm). Average time for needle placement was 9.4 min (range 3–18 min); average duration of entire procedure was 42 min (range 27–62 min). 2–5 core samples were obtained from each lesion (mean 2.6). Technical success rate was 100 %, with specimens successfully obtained in all 16 patients. There were no immediate complications. Histopathology revealed malignancy in 12 cases (4 of which were surgically confirmed), benign lesions in 3 cases (1 of which was false negative following surgical resection), and one inconclusive specimen (treated as inaccurate since repeat CT-guided biopsy demonstrated thymic hyperplasia). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy in our study were 92.3, 100, 100, 66.7, and 87.5 %, respectively.ConclusionMRI-guided mediastinal biopsy is a safe procedure with high diagnostic accuracy, which may offer a non-ionizing alternative to CT guidance.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2022

ADAPTIVE GROUP TESTING WITH MISMATCHED MODELS

Accurate detection of infected individuals is one of the critical steps in stopping any pandemic. When the underlying infection rate of the disease is low, testing people in groups, instead of testing each individual in the population, can be more efficient. In this work, we consider noisy adaptive group testing design with specific test sensitivity and specificity that select the optimal group given previous test results based on pre-selected utility function. As in prior studies on group testing, we model this problem as a sequential Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) to adaptively design the groups for each test. We analyze the required number of group tests when using the updated posterior on the infection status and the corresponding Mutual Information (MI) as our utility function for selecting new groups. More importantly, we study how the potential bias on the ground-truth noise of group tests may affect the group testing sample complexity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On Finding Black Holes in Photometric Microlensing Surveys

There are expected to be millions of isolated black holes in the galaxy resulting from the deaths of massive stars. Measuring the abundance and properties of this remnant population would shed light on the end stages of stellar evolution and the evolution paths of black hole systems. Detecting isolated black holes is currently only possible via gravitational microlensing, which has so far yielded one definitive detection. The difficulty in finding microlensing black holes lies in having to choose a small subset of events, based on characteristics of their light curves, to allocate expensive and scarce follow-up resources to confirm the identity of the lens. Current methods either rely on simple cuts in parameter space without using the full distribution information or are only effective on small subsets of events. In this paper, we present a new lens classification method. The classifier takes in posterior constraints on light-curve parameters and combines them with a Galactic simulation to estimate the lens class probability. This method is flexible and can be used with any set of microlensing light-curve parameters, making it applicable to large samples of events. We make this classification framework available via the popclass Python package. We apply the classifier to ~10,000 microlensing events from the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment survey and find 23 high-probability black hole candidates. Our classifier also suggests that the only known isolated black hole is an observational outlier, according to current Galactic models, and the allocation of astrometric follow-up on this event was a high-risk strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗