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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

Development of a variational SEASAT data analysis technique

Oceans are data-sparse areas in terms of conventional weather observations. The surface pressure field obtained solely by analyzing the conventional weather data is not expected to possess high accuracy. On the other hand, in entering asynoptic data such as satellite-derived temperature soundings into an atmospheric prediction system, an improved surface analysis is crucial for obtaining more accurate weather predictions because the mass distribution of the entire atmosphere will be better represented in the system as a result of the more accurate surface pressure field. In order to obtain improved surface pressure analyses over the oceans, a variational adjustment technique was developed to help blend the densely distributed surface wind data derived from the SEASAT-A radar observations into the sparsely distributed conventional pressure data. A simple marine boundary layer scheme employed in the adjustment technique was discussed. In addition, a few aspects of the current technique were determined by numerical experiments.

Sasaki, Y. K.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Knowledge-based Autonomous Test Engineer (KATE)

Mathematical models of system components have long been used to allow simulators to predict system behavior to various stimuli. Recent efforts to monitor, diagnose, and control real-time systems using component models have experienced similar success. NASA Kennedy is continuing the development of a tool for implementing real-time knowledge-based diagnostic and control systems called KATE (Knowledge based Autonomous Test Engineer). KATE is a model-based reasoning shell designed to provide autonomous control, monitoring, fault detection, and diagnostics for complex engineering systems by applying its reasoning techniques to an exchangeable quantitative model describing the structure and function of the various system components and their systemic behavior.

Parrish, Carrie L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Distributing flight dynamics products via the World Wide Web

The NASA Flight Dynamics Products Center (FDPC), which make available selected operations products via the World Wide Web, is reported on. The FDPC can be accessed from any host machine connected to the Internet. It is a multi-mission service which provides Internet users with unrestricted access to the following standard products: antenna contact predictions; ground tracks; orbit ephemerides; mean and osculating orbital elements; earth sensor sun and moon interference predictions; space flight tracking data network summaries; and Shuttle transport system predictions. Several scientific data bases are available through the service.

Woodard, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1986

Application of the Baseline Rotonet system to the prediction of helicopter tone noise

The capabilities of the baseline Rotonet system designed to predict helicopter noise are analyzed. The modules of the system utilized for main and tail rotor geometry and blade section aerodynamic characteristics, for analyses, and for source-to-observer geometry, and atmospheric and ground effects calculations are described; a diagram of the system is provided. The Rotonet system produces axial force, tone noise, and sound pressure level information and a one third octave spectrum related to rotor tone noise and broadband noise sources. Main rotor noise predictions are compared with flight data. It is observed that both sets of data reveal increase loading on the advancing side and decrease loading on the retreating side. The tone noise and sound pressure levels for the first and second harmonics correlate well with the flight data; however, there is only fair agreement for the third harmonics of the sound pressure level. Analysis of the spectra display lower noise levels for higher altitudes and lower speeds. It is noted that the baseline Rotonet system is applicable for predicting performance and noise signatures for the lower harmonics. A phase II Rotonet system for evaluating higher harmonics is being developed.

Golub, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synergistic and Collaborative Development Strategies for FV3 Powered Next Generation Unified Global Modeling System

The GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Finite-­Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core (FV3) is a scalable and flexible dynamical core capable of both hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic atmospheric simulations. FV3 has been chosen as the dynamical core for the Next Generation Global Prediction System project (NGGPS), designed to upgrade the current NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA) operational Global Forecast System (GFS) to run as a unified, fully-coupled system in NOAA's Environmental Modeling System infrastructure. FV3 dynamic core has a long history of serving as the main engine for global atmospheric models at various Government and Academic Research Laboratories including NOAA: GFDL Climate Modeling Suite (AM4 (Atmosphere Modeling 4), CM4 (Climate Model 4) ESM4 (Earth System Model 4), Hiram (HIgh Resolution Atmospheric Model)); NASA: GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS); and NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Earth System Model (CESM). The three primary stakeholders in FV3 (GFDL, GMAO, EMC (Environmental Modeling Center - NOAA)) have embarked on synergistic and collaborative strategies with focus on the advancement of non-hydrostratic dynamic core, physics, chemistry, and data assimilation efforts, leveraging collective strengths of each of the partnering agencies. This talk presents the ongoing plans for model advancements at GFDL, GMAO and EMC, with special emphasis on contributions towards developing community based unified global modeling system for operational and research applications at respective organizations. Future plans include extending the collaborations to the development of earth system components including GMAO's aerosol chemistry models (GOCART/MAM (Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport / Modal Aerosol Model)), Land Information System (LIS), and advanced data assimilation techniques; and GFDL's Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS) for transition to operations at NCEP.

Putman, William↗
NASA NTRS2020

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS2020

Analyzing the Impact of CryoSat-2 Ice Thickness Initialization on Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Prediction

Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 for the ocean and sea ice but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M sq.km (5.27 M sq.km) versus the ensemble set of forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M sq.km (4.99 M sq.km), a 56% reduction in error. The September mean Integrated Ice Edge Error (IIEE) shows a 19% improvement for the entire Arctic with the CS2 data versus the control run. Comparison against Upward Looking Sonar (ULS) ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of experiments show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D.

time-lagged ensembles↗
NASA NTRS1971

Radiolysis of water in sealed aluminum capsules - Its prediction and inhibition.

This report presents the results of an investigation into methods of inhibiting the radiolysis of water in sealed aluminum capsules in the Plum Brook Reactor of NASA. Experimental design techniques are employed to identify the measured effects of eight variables and their interactions which control water decomposition and the resultant pressure buildup. Multiple regression analyses are used to develop predictive models for the pressure rise observed in an inpile capsule system. Predictive equations are derived for pressure rise due to the radiolysis of water with air as a cover gas or with helium cover gas containing air as an impurity or mixtures of hydrogen, oxygen, and nitrogen as impurities. Radiation induced reaction products of nitrogen and oxygen are identified as the key to radiolysis behavior. The prevention of radiolysis depends on the exclusion of air or mixtures of nitrogen and oxygen from the system. Pure inert gases, helium, neon, and argon prove to be satisfactory radiolysis inhibitors. This is demonstrated for helium by inpile tests lasting up to 14 days (one reactor cycle) in the Plum Brook Reactor.

Sheibley, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Introduction to the NASA GMAO Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System - GEOS-S2S Version 3

Recently NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a new Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction system Version 3 (GEOS-S2S-3). This upgrade replaces the GEOS-S2S-2 which is NASA's current contribution to the North American Multi-Model Experiment seasonal prediction project (Kirtman et al., 2014). The main improvements for our S2S-3 system include 1) a higher resolution MOM5 (Griffies et al., 2005) ocean model (now 0.25o x 0.25o x 50 layers), 2) an improved atmospheric/ocean interface layer (Akella and Suarez, 2018), and 3) assimilation of a long-track satellite salinity into the ocean model (Hackert et al, 2019). Atmospheric forcing is provided by the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis (Gelaro et al., 2017). Initialization for the ocean relies on the GMAO ocean reanalysis system which assimilates all available in situ temperature and salinity, satellite sea surface salinity, and sea level using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) implementation of (Penny et al., 2013) on a 5 day assimilation cycle with 20 fixed ensemble members.In this presentation, we will authenticate our new S2S-3 ocean reanalysis using standard GODAE validation metrics. For example, we will compare gridded fields of mean and standard deviation of the ocean reanalysis versus observed fields. We will show correlation/RMS of model versus observations and temperature and salinity mean profiles for the various basins and latitude bands. Basin-scale volume transports, such as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and the Indonesian Throughflow will be validated. Equatorial ocean waves will be compared by decomposing sea level into Kelvin and Rossby components. For each of these metrics, we plan to validate the results and then compare our new S2S-3 against the current production version, S2S-2. Finally, we will compare 9-month seasonal forecasts initialized from these two systems for the tropical Pacific NINO3.4 region over the period 1981-present.

Molod, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying sources of subseasonal prediction skill in CESM2

Abstract Subseasonal prediction fills the gap between weather forecasts and seasonal outlooks. There is evidence that predictability on subseasonal timescales comes from a combination of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions. Predictability from the land is often attributed to slowly varying changes in soil moisture and snowpack, while predictability from the ocean is attributed to sources such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Here we use a set of subseasonal reforecast experiments with CESM2 to quantify the respective roles of atmosphere, land, and ocean initial conditions on subseasonal prediction skill over land. These reveal that the majority of prediction skill for global surface temperature in weeks 3–4 comes from the atmosphere, while ocean initial conditions become important after week 4, especially in the Tropics. In the CESM2 subseasonal prediction system, the land initial state does not contribute to surface temperature prediction skill in weeks 3–6 and climatological land conditions lead to higher skill, disagreeing with our current understanding. However, land-atmosphere coupling is important in week 1. Subseasonal precipitation prediction skill also comes primarily from the atmospheric initial condition, except for the Tropics, where after week 4 the ocean state is more important.

Richter, Jadwiga H. (ORCID:0000000170480781)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Intervention Assessment and Attribution

Focal Area(s): To ensure the US is positioned to scientifically attribute noncooperative climate interventions, we propose developing a foundational analytical framework for increased confidence in the assessment and attribution of observed changes in the climate. This framework will enable probabilistic attribution of prospective climate interventions. The target is to glean insight from complex Earth system data (Focal Area 3) by using AI to develop a prediction system comprised of a hierarchy of models (Focal Area 2).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Shuttle communication systems compatibility and performance testing

The Shuttle communications system consists of major space and ground elements. The compatibility and performance of each of these major elements functioning as a complete system must be certified prior to operational missions. This paper discusses the Shuttle communication systems compatibility and performance testing. The system test philosophy for the complex communication channels is described in terms of the major phases, which include early breadboard system design evaluation tests, system development tests with prototype hardware, and system certification testing with qualifiable (flight) hardware. The system hardware configuration, facility requirements, test and evaluation techniques, and operational approaches required to accomplish each major phase of testing are reviewed. Results of recently completed space-to-space and space-to-ground system tests are presented. Test techniques and measurement accuracies proven over ten years of unique system-evaluation experience are reviewed. Techniques used in relating experimental and predicted system performance, and conclusions regarding the effectiveness of system level testing of such complex hardware, are addressed.

Seyl, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Overview of Ecological Modeling and Machine Learning Research Within the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration

In the early 1980 s NASA began research to understand global habitability and quantify the processes and fluxes between the Earth's vegetation and the biosphere. This effort evolved into the Earth Observing System Program which current encompasses 18 platforms and 80 sensors. During this time, the global environmental research community has evolved from a data poor to a data rich research area and is challenged to provide timely use of these new data. This talk will outline some of the data mining research NASA has funded in support for the environmental sciences in the Intelligent Systems project and will give a specific example in ecological forecasting, predicting the land surface properties given nowcasts and weather forecasts, using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS).

Coughlan, Joseph C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Program Predicts Broadband Noise from a Turbofan Engine

Broadband Fan Noise Prediction System (BFaNS) is a computer program that, as its name indicates, predicts the broadband noise generated by the fan stage of a turbofan engine. This noise is the sum of (1) turbulent-inflow noise, which is caused by turbulence impinging on leading edges of the fan and the fan exit guide vane and (2) self noise, which is caused by turbulence convecting past the corresponding trailing edges. The user provides input data on the fan-blade, vane, and flow-path geometries and on the mean and turbulent components of the flow field. BFaNS then calculates the turbulent-inflow noise by use of D. B. Hanson's theory, which relates sound power to the inflow turbulence characteristics and the cascade geometry. Hanson s program, BBCASCADE, is incorporated into BFaNS, wherein it is applied to the rotor and stator in a stripwise manner. The spectra of upstream and downstream sound powers radiated by each strip are summed to obtain the total upstream and downstream sound-power spectra. The self-noise contributions are calculated by S. A. L. Glegg's theory, which is also applied in a stripwise manner. The current version of BFaNS is limited to fans with subsonic tip speeds.

Morin, Bruce L.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Human-Robot Interaction in High Vulnerability Domains

Future NASA missions will require successful integration of the human with highly complex systems. Highly complex systems are likely to involve humans, automation, and some level of robotic assistance. The complex environments will require successful integration of the human with automation, with robots, and with human-automation-robot teams to accomplish mission critical goals. Many challenges exist for the human performing in these types of operational environments with these kinds of systems. Systems must be designed to optimally integrate various levels of inputs and outputs based on the roles and responsibilities of the human, the automation, and the robots; from direct manual control, shared human-robotic control, or no active human control (i.e. human supervisory control). It is assumed that the human will remain involved at some level. Technologies that vary based on contextual demands and on operator characteristics (workload, situation awareness) will be needed when the human integrates into these systems. Predictive models that estimate the impact of the technologies on the system performance and the on the human operator are also needed to meet the challenges associated with such future complex human-automation-robot systems in extreme environments.

workload↗
NASA NTRS2022

Finite Element Modeling of Rigid-Flex PCB Robotic Structures for Dynamic Environments

Rigid-flex circuit boards are becoming moreprevalent as the limits are pushed on the size, mass, and geometryof electronic systems. A key aspect of designing a rigid-flexprinted circuit boards (PCB) system is an assessment of thedynamic properties of the PCB and predicting system perfor-mance under dynamic loading. Among current modeling method-ologies for rigid-flex PCB, a simplified modeling methodology thatadequately captures the system dynamics does not exist. This arti-cle presents a novel, computationally efficient approach formodeling rigid-flex PCB systems and the calibration of the mate-rial models via modal testing. The resulting simplified model isable to capture system frequencies, mode shapes, and representa-tive force-displacement behavior. The proposed methodology isused to model NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Pop-Up FlatFolding Explorer Robot (PUFFER) and assess the sensitivity of asystem model to input parameters.

John Bell↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗