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mphys-surrogate-model

This repository contains python scripts for building and studying reduced-order-modeling representations of droplet coalescence for eventual use in atmospheric models. The included data are generated from high-fidelity superdroplet methods and are utilized by machine learning pipelines to build data-driven models of droplet size distributions that evolve under coalescence. This repository further includes scripts to determine prediction (uncertainty) intervals on the data-driven model products based on conformal prediction.

Katona, JonasE [Lawrence Livermore National Labora↗

Computational aspects of maximum likelihood estimation and reduction in sensitivity function calculations

This paper discusses numerical aspects of computing maximum likelihood estimates for linear dynamical systems in state-vector form. Different gradient-based nonlinear programming methods are discussed in a unified framework and their applicability to maximum likelihood estimation is examined. The problems due to singular Hessian or singular information matrix that are common in practice are discussed in detail and methods for their solution are proposed. New results on the calculation of state sensitivity functions via reduced order models are given. Several methods for speeding convergence and reducing computation time are also discussed.

Gupta, N. K.↗

Discrete-time model reduction in limited frequency ranges

A mathematical formulation for model reduction of discrete time systems such that the reduced order model represents the system in a particular frequency range is discussed. The algorithm transforms the full order system into balanced coordinates using frequency weighted discrete controllability and observability grammians. In this form a criterion is derived to guide truncation of states based on their contribution to the frequency range of interest. Minimization of the criterion is accomplished without need for numerical optimization. Balancing requires the computation of discrete frequency weighted grammians. Close form solutions for the computation of frequency weighted grammians are developed. Numerical examples are discussed to demonstrate the algorithm.

Horta, Lucas G.↗

General modeling methods

The benefits of structural dynamics modeling methods in aerospace structures are reviewed. Four major issues in structural dynamics modeling are discussed which encompass most of its subdisciplines: reduced order modeling, constraints in problems with large motions, computational strategies, and fundamental methods. Directions for future research in these areas are addressed.

Pinson, Larry D.↗

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗

Model Order Reduction of Aeroservoelastic Model of Flexible Aircraft

This paper presents a holistic model order reduction (MOR) methodology and framework that integrates key technological elements of sequential model reduction, consistent model representation, and model interpolation for constructing high-quality linear parameter-varying (LPV) aeroservoelastic (ASE) reduced order models (ROMs) of flexible aircraft. The sequential MOR encapsulates a suite of reduction techniques, such as truncation and residualization, modal reduction, and balanced realization and truncation to achieve optimal ROMs at grid points across the flight envelope. The consistence in state representation among local ROMs is obtained by the novel method of common subspace reprojection. Model interpolation is then exploited to stitch ROMs at grid points to build a global LPV ASE ROM feasible to arbitrary flight condition. The MOR method is applied to the X-56A MUTT vehicle with flexible wing being tested at NASA/AFRC for flutter suppression and gust load alleviation. Our studies demonstrated that relative to the fullorder model, our X-56A ROM can accurately and reliably capture vehicles dynamics at various flight conditions in the target frequency regime while the number of states in ROM can be reduced by 10X (from 180 to 19), and hence, holds great promise for robust ASE controller synthesis and novel vehicle design.

aeroelasticity↗

Active Control of High Frequency Combustion Instability in Aircraft Gas-Turbine Engines

Active control of high-frequency (greater than 500 Hz) combustion instability has been demonstrated in the NASA single-nozzle combustor rig at United Technologies Research Center. The combustor rig emulates an actual engine instability and has many of the complexities of a real engine combustor (i.e. actual fuel nozzle and swirler, dilution cooling, etc.) In order to demonstrate control, a high-frequency fuel valve capable of modulating the fuel flow at up to 1kHz was developed. Characterization of the fuel delivery system was accomplished in a custom dynamic flow rig developed for that purpose. Two instability control methods, one model-based and one based on adaptive phase-shifting, were developed and evaluated against reduced order models and a Sectored-1-dimensional model of the combustor rig. Open-loop fuel modulation testing in the rig demonstrated sufficient fuel modulation authority to proceed with closed-loop testing. During closed-loop testing, both control methods were able to identify the instability from the background noise and were shown to reduce the pressure oscillations at the instability frequency by 30%. This is the first known successful demonstration of high-frequency combustion instability suppression in a realistic aero-engine environment. Future plans are to carry these technologies forward to demonstration on an advanced low-emission combustor.

Corrigan, Bob↗

Generation of linear dynamic models from a digital nonlinear simulation

The results and methodology used to derive linear models from a nonlinear simulation are presented. It is shown that averaged positive and negative perturbations in the state variables can reduce numerical errors in finite difference, partial derivative approximations and, in the control inputs, can better approximate the system response in both directions about the operating point. Both explicit and implicit formulations are addressed. Linear models are derived for the F 100 engine, and comparisons of transients are made with the nonlinear simulation. The problem of startup transients in the nonlinear simulation in making these comparisons is addressed. Also, reduction of the linear models is investigated using the modal and normal techniques. Reduced-order models of the F 100 are derived and compared with the full-state models.

Daniele, C. J.↗

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗

Dissolution zone model of the oxide structure in additively manufactured dispersion-strengthened alloys

The structural evolution of oxides in dispersion-strengthened superalloys during laser-powder bed fusion is considered in detail. Alloy chemistry and process parameter effects on oxide structure are assessed through a parameter study on the model alloy Ni-20Cr, doped with varying concentrations of Y 2 O 3 and Al. Small angle neutron scattering measurements of the dispersoid size distribution show the dispersoid size increases with higher laser power, slower scan speed, and increasing Y 2 O 3 and Al content. Complementary electron microscopy measurements reveal reactions between Y 2 O 3 and Al, even in nanoscale dispersoids, and the presence of micron-scale oxide slag inclusions in select specimens. A scaling analysis of mass and momentum transport within the melt pool, presented here, establishes that diffusional structural evolution mechanisms dominate for nanoscale dispersoids, while fluid forces and advection become significant for larger slag inclusions. These findings are developed into a theory of dispersoid structural evolution, integrating quantitative models of diffusional processes – dispersoid dissolution, nucleation, growth, coarsening – with a reduced order model of time-temperature trajectories of fluid parcels within the melt pool. Calculations of the dispersoid size in single-pass melting reveal a zone in the center of the melt track in which the oxide feedstock fully dissolves. Within this zone the final Y 2 O 3 size is independent of feedstock size and determined by nucleation and growth kinetics. If the dissolution zones of adjacent melt tracks overlap sufficiently with each other to dissolve large oxides, formed during printing or present in the powder feedstock, then the dispersoid structure throughout the build volume is homogeneous and matches that from a single pass within the dissolution zone. Gaps between adjacent dissolution zones result in oxide accumulation into larger slag inclusions. Predictions of final dispersoid size and slag formation using this dissolution zone model match the present experimental data and explain process-structure linkages speculated in the open literature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A mechanistic, multiscale model for predicting Pd penetration in TRISO fuels using BISON

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles use silicon carbide (SiC) as the primary structural member and barrier against metallic fission product (FP) release. palladiums (PDs), produced by fission in the fuel kernel, can diffuse to and chemically interact with the SiC layer, degrading its structural integrity and ability to contain radioactive FPs. Existing temperature-dependent correlations for predicting Pd penetration rely on experimental data with significant scatter due to varying conditions, potentially complicating ongoing fuel qualification and licensing efforts for advanced reactors that would subject TRISO fuels to operating conditions outside of those examined in the experiments. A mechanistic model of Pd production, transport, and reaction is developed in this work to better understand and predict PD attack of SiC in TRISO particles. molecular dynamicss (MDs) simulations are utilized to calculate the Pd diffusivity in SiC grain bulk and grain boundaries. A mesoscale phase-field diffusion model, informed by the MD diffusivities, is used to develop a reduced order model (ROM) for the effect of SiC microstructure on the Pd penetration rate. The engineering scale BISON model calculates Pd production and transport, utilizing the ROM to predict penetration rates consistent with experimental data. This novel mechanistic ROM captures the effect of temperature, microstructure, and irradiation history on Pd penetration. In conclusion, these new capabilities are expected to support ongoing qualification and licensing efforts associated with near-term TRISO-fueled reactor applications.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Variable Eddington Factor Model for Thermal Radiative Transfer with Closure Based on Data-Driven Shape Function

Here, a new variable Eddington factor (VEF) model is presented for nonlinear problems of thermal radiative transfer (TRT). The VEF model is data-driven and acts on known (a-priori) radiation-diffusion solutions for material temperatures in the TRT problem. A linear auxiliary problem is constructed for the radiative transfer equation (RTE) whose emission source and opacities are evaluated at these known material temperatures. The solution to this RTE approximates the specific intensity distribution in phase-space and time. It is applied as a shape function to define the Eddington tensor for the presented VEF model. The shape function computed via the auxiliary RTE problem will capture some degree of transport effects within the TRT problem. The VEF moment equations closed with this approximate Eddington tensor will thus carry with them these captured transport effects. In this study, the temperature data comes from multigroup P 1 , P 1/3 , and flux-limited diffusion radiative transfer models. The proposed VEF model can be interpreted as a transport-corrected diffusion reduced-order model. Numerical results are presented on the Fleck-Cummings test problem which models a supersonic wavefront of radiation. The VEF model is shown to improve accuracy by 1–2 orders of magnitude compared to the considered radiation-diffusion model solutions to the TRT problem.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Eigenspace techniques for active flutter suppression

Mathematical models to be used in the control system design were developed. A computer program, which takes aerodynamic and structural data for the ARW-2 aircraft and converts these data into state space models suitable for use in modern control synthesis procedures, was developed. Reduced order models of inboard and outboard control surface actuator dynamics and a second order vertical wind gust model were developed. An analysis of the rigid body motion of the ARW-2 was conducted. The deletion of the aerodynamic lag states in the rigid body modes resulted in more accurate values for the eigenvalues associated with the plunge and pitch modes than were obtainable if the lag states were retained.

Garrard, W. L.↗

Model reduction and control of flexible structures using Krylov subspaces

Krylov vectors and the concept of parameter-matching are combined to develop a model reduction algorithm for a damped structural dynamics system. The reduced-order model obtained matches a certain number of low-frequency moments of the full-order system. The major application of the present method is to the control of flexible structures. It is shown that, in the control of flexible structures, there generally exist three types of control energy spillover, namely, the control spillover, the observation spillover, and dynamic spillover. The formulation based on Krylov subspaces can eliminate the control and the observation spillover, while leaving only the dynamic spillover to be considered. Two examples are used to illustrate the efficacy of the Krylov method.

Craig, Roy R., Jr.↗

Uncertainty Due to Unsteady Fluid/Structure Interaction for the Ares I Vehicle Traversing the Transonic Regime

Rapid reduced-order numerical models are being investigated as candidates to simulate the dynamics of a flexible launch vehicle during atmospheric ascent. There has also been the extension of these new approaches to include gust response. These methods are used to perform aeroelastic and gust response analyses at isolated Mach numbers. Such models require a method to time march through a succession of ascent Mach numbers. An approach is presented for interpolating reduced-order models of the unsteady aerodynamics at successive Mach numbers. The transonic Mach number range is considered here since launch vehicles can suffer the highest dynamic loads through this range. Realistic simulations of the flexible vehicle behavior as it traverses this Mach number range are presented. The response of the vehicle due to gusts is computed. Uncertainties in root mean square and maximum bending moment and crew module accelerations are presented due to assumed probability distributions in design parameters, ascent flight conditions, gusts. The primary focus is on the uncertainty introduced by modeling fidelity. It is found that an unsteady reduced order model produces larger excursions in the root mean square loading and accelerations than does a quasi-steady reduced order model.

Bartels, Robert E.↗

Adaptive model reduction for continuous systems via recursive rational interpolation

A method for adaptive identification of reduced-order models for continuous stable SISO and MIMO plants is presented. The method recursively finds a model whose transfer function (matrix) matches that of the plant on a set of frequencies chosen by the designer. The algorithm utilizes the Moving Discrete Fourier Transform (MDFT) to continuously monitor the frequency-domain profile of the system input and output signals. The MDFT is an efficient method of monitoring discrete points in the frequency domain of an evolving function of time. The model parameters are estimated from MDFT data using standard recursive parameter estimation techniques. The algorithm has been shown in simulations to be quite robust to additive noise in the inputs and outputs. A significant advantage of the method is that it enables a type of on-line model validation. This is accomplished by simultaneously identifying a number of models and comparing each with the plant in the frequency domain. Simulations of the method applied to an 8th-order SISO plant and a 10-state 2-input 2-output plant are presented. An example of on-line model validation applied to the SISO plant is also presented.

Lilly, John H.↗

On model reduction

Three model reduction methods are described. These are the discrete balanced realizations of Mullis and Roberts (1976) where a characterization of the reduction error is given and a previously unknown L(infinity) norm bound on the reduction error, is obtained. Another method is a new model reduction technique for discrete time systems which has the advantage that the reduced order model is balanced and has an L(infinity) norm bound on the reduction error. The last method derived is a frequency weighting technique for continuous and discrete systems where it is possible to specify the approximation accuracy with frequency and also, for this method, an L(infinity) norm on the weighted reduction error is obtained.

Al-Saggaf, Ubaid M.↗

Design of the Next Generation Aircraft Noise Prediction Program: ANOPP2

The requirements, constraints, and design of NASA's next generation Aircraft NOise Prediction Program (ANOPP2) are introduced. Similar to its predecessor (ANOPP), ANOPP2 provides the U.S. Government with an independent aircraft system noise prediction capability that can be used as a stand-alone program or within larger trade studies that include performance, emissions, and fuel burn. The ANOPP2 framework is designed to facilitate the combination of acoustic approaches of varying fidelity for the analysis of noise from conventional and unconventional aircraft. ANOPP2 integrates noise prediction and propagation methods, including those found in ANOPP, into a unified system that is compatible for use within general aircraft analysis software. The design of the system is described in terms of its functionality and capability to perform predictions accounting for distributed sources, installation effects, and propagation through a non-uniform atmosphere including refraction and the influence of terrain. The philosophy of mixed fidelity noise prediction through the use of nested Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings surfaces is presented and specific issues associated with its implementation are identified. Demonstrations for a conventional twin-aisle and an unconventional hybrid wing body aircraft configuration are presented to show the feasibility and capabilities of the system. Isolated model-scale jet noise predictions are also presented using high-fidelity and reduced order models, further demonstrating ANOPP2's ability to provide predictions for model-scale test configurations.

Lopes, Leonard V., Dr.↗