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At least 289 records · Page 16

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NASA NTRS1977

Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics and Optimum Fracture Control Analytical Procedures for a Reusable Solid Rocket Motor Case

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis is used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects of failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions are also considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different failure prevention plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Reusable solid rocket motor case - Optimum probabilistic fracture control

A methodology for the reliability analysis of a reusable solid rocket motor case is discussed in this paper. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and probability distribution for initial flaw sizes. The developed reliability analysis can be used to select the structural design variables of the solid rocket motor case on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds during the projected design life of the case. Effects on failure prevention plans such as nondestructive inspection and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed procedure for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure that has been discussed in this paper can easily be modified to consider other similar structures of reusable space vehicle systems with different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An interactive program for software reliability modeling

With the tremendous growth in computer software, the demand has arisen for producing cost effective reliable software. Over the last 10 years an area of research has developed which attempts to address this problem by estimating a program's current reliability by modeling either the times between error detections or the error counts in past testing periods. A new tool for interactive software reliability analysis using the computer is described. This computer program allows the user to perform a complete reliability analysis using any of eight well-known models appearing in the literature. Some of the capabilities of the program are illustrated by means of an analysis of a set of simulated error data.

Farr, W. H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Probabilistic fracture mechanics and optimum fracture control of the solid rocket motor case of the shuttle

Development of a procedure for the reliability analysis of the solid rocket motor case of the space shuttle is described. The analysis is based on probabilistic fracture mechanics and consideration of a probability distribution for the initial flaw sizes. The reliability analysis can be used to select design variables, such as the thickness of the SRM case, projected design life and proof factor, on the basis of minimum expected cost and specified reliability bounds. Effects of fracture control plans such as the non-destructive inspections and the material erosion between missions can also be considered in the developed methodology for selection of design variables. The reliability-based procedure can be easily modified to consider other similar structures and different fracture control plans.

Hanagud, S.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Reliability-Aware Requirements Development for Autonomy Software

Autonomy is the ability of a system to make decisions and take actions in the presence of uncertainty. Validating autonomy, therefore, is a matter of validating that the system makes intelligent decisions even when there might be discrepancies between the observed and the expected state of the world as well as when the possible outcome of each of the possible courses of action is uncertain. During the requirements engineering phase, the functions, including those that are required to be autonomous and their expected behavior are specified. However, in the case of autonomous software system, it is challenging to specify all possible scenarios that the software may encounter. Additionally, since autonomous behaviors cannot always be fully predetermined, it is difficult to reason about their completeness and correctness. While these challenges are also faced with non-autonomous system, they are more prevalent for autonomous system due to their complexity and emergent behavior. Our efforts have been three-fold. On one hand, we have developed a goal-based method for requirements decomposition. We have embedded this approach into a higher-level systems engineering framework and then developed methods for decision and reliability analysis within this framework. And finally, we use simulation analysis to validate the more theoretical methods and provide a feedback mechanism. The decision analysis approach (DA) helps in identifying and mitigating the run-time risks, by bringing to the forefront the uncertainties, decisions, interactions, and other factors that may cause autonomous software to make erroneous decisions. The DA framework is used to quantify, for each decision that the software can make, failure risk due to uncertainties. The information about the key decisions and circumstances that can cause autonomous system to make incorrect decisions are used to generate test scenarios to be run in a simulator to ensure that the system can handle error-prone circumstances. The results or outcomes from decisions, based on the simulated scenarios, can then be leveraged to further gain insight of the assured system. We combine a goal-based approach with simulation analysis to facilitate requirements development for autonomous systems and further provide a method for run-time systems level reliability considerations during the autonomous software development process. The DA and the reliability analysis methods provide a formalism for the consideration of uncertainty in the run time decision-making process for autonomous software. This formalism considers the uncertainty involved in the outcome of different courses of action, in terms of performance and cost, as well as a method to consider the system level reliability implications. System level reliability considerations for autonomous software decision making contribute to the satisfaction of the system level goals over the lifecycle of a given mission. We demonstrate our approach using a hypothetical rover path planning example. The requirements for our rover simulator are based on existing literature about Mars rovers and lessons learned from real world observations at JPL. The specifics of the autonomy design for the Mars rovers, that have not been previously cleared for external release, are not used for our demonstrations.

Lindvall, Mikael↗

DOE OSTI2022

LBNL CRADA (FP00009949) with the American Public Power Association: Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (Final Technical Report)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electricity Reliability Metrics, Analysis, and Planning (CRADA Final Report)

LBNL and APPA (the team) jointly examined the extent to which differences in distribution feeder characteristics are correlated with differences in their reliability performance when exposed to three different types of natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The team employed data-driven approaches to quantify the relationships between various measures of feeder reliability and a suite of feeder characteristics individually and jointly via a statistically-based clustering method. The team developed suggestions on how comparisons across groupings of feeders and review of the relative contributions of the constituents of SAIFI and SAIDI could be used to help prioritize utility actions to improve reliability. However, they also caution that their suggestions require further evaluation because they are based on only one year of information from a modest number of small utilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2018

Reliability-Based Design of Thermal Protection Systems with Support Vector Machines

The primary objective of this work was to develop a computationally efficient and accurate approach to reliability analysis of thermal protection systems using support vector machines. An adaptive sampling approach was introduced informs a iterative support vector machine approximation of the limit state function used for measuring reliability. The proposed sampling approach efficient adds samples along the limit state function until the reliability approximation is converged. This methodology is applied to two samples, mathematical functions to test and demonstrate the applicability. Then, the adaptive sampling-based support vector machine approach is applied to the reliability analysis of a thermal protection system. The results of all three problems highlight the potential capability of the new approach in terms of accuracy and computational saving in determining thermal protection system reliability.

White, Laura M.↗

NASA NTRS1996

The Verification-based Analysis of Reliable Multicast Protocol

Reliable Multicast Protocol (RMP) is a communication protocol that provides an atomic, totally ordered, reliable multicast service on top of unreliable IP Multicasting. In this paper, we develop formal models for R.W using existing automatic verification systems, and perform verification-based analysis on the formal RMP specifications. We also use the formal models of RW specifications to generate a test suite for conformance testing of the RMP implementation. Throughout the process of RMP development, we follow an iterative, interactive approach that emphasizes concurrent and parallel progress between the implementation and verification processes. Through this approach, we incorporate formal techniques into our development process, promote a common understanding for the protocol, increase the reliability of our software, and maintain high fidelity between the specifications of RMP and its implementation.

Wu, Yunqing↗

NASA NTRS2019

Model Based Engineering for Software Assurance

NASA's successful development of next generation space vehicles, habitats, and robotic systems will require reliable hardware and software systems. The aim of this initiative is to develop modeling methodology and tools to support Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) for software assurance and reliability analysis. This effort expands the Unified Modeling Language (UML) software design models to include fault data for the extraction of Failure Modes and Effects Criticality Analysis (FMECA) and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) for software. We explored different modeling approaches to integrate the UML software design models with the Systems Modeling Language (SysML) system models to generate an integrated model and reliability tools that take into account software and hardware interfaces.The benefits of this concept directly affect the safety community with quick turnarounds to produce software assurance and reliability analysis artifacts and the ability to visualize failure effects, both hardware and software. The result is enhanced system design integrity and early identification of system risks. This initiative will enable software assurance activities early in the system design lifecycle, facilitating the discovery of design weaknesses and enhancing the capability to produce safe, hazard-free systems

Wang, Lui↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Integrated Risk Assessment Process for Digital Instrumentation and Control Upgrades of Nuclear Power Plants

Most of the existing nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the world rely on traditional analog instrumentation and control (I&C) systems for monitoring, control, and protection functions. With the industrial base largely moving to digital systems, the operation and maintenance of plants involves managing issues including lack of needed analog spare parts, increasing maintenance costs, and the loss of vendor support. Compared with existing analog I&C systems, digital I&C systems have significant functional advantages, such as reliable system performance in terms of accuracy and computational capability, high data handling and storage capabilities to fully measure and display operating conditions, and improved capabilities (e.g., fault tolerance, self-testing, signal validation, process system diagnostics). Therefore, the U.S. nuclear power industry has initiated the replacement of existing, aging analog systems with digital I&C technology, and is developing new designs for advanced plants using digital systems in integrated control rooms to provide modern control and protection systems. However, the qualification of digital I&C systems remains a challenge, especially the issue of software common cause failure (CCF), which has been difficult to address. A CCF is the malfunction of two or more plant components or functions due to a single failure source. CCFs have the potential to generate unanalyzed events or sequences that may not be bounded by previous plant accident analyses, therefore, to challenge the plant safety. Existing analyses on CCF in I&C systems are mainly focusing on hardware failures. With the application and upgrades of new digital I&C systems, software CCFs due to design flaws have become a potential threat to plant safety considering most redundancy designs are using the similar digital platforms or software in the operating and application systems. With complex multi-layer redundancy designs to meet the single failure criterion, these I&C safety systems are of a particular concern in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) licensing procedures. Therefore, there is a need to develop an integrated risk assessment strategy with digital CCF and plant transient responses considered to assure the long-term safety and reliability of vital digital systems and reduce uncertainties in costs, time, and support integration of digital systems in the plant. The overall goal of this project is to deliver a strong technical basis to support effective, licensable, and secure digital I&C technologies for the digital upgrades to existing NPPs. To deal with the expensive licensing justifications from regulatory insights, this technical basis is instructive for nuclear vendors and utilities to effectively lower the costs associated with digital compliance and speed-up industry advances by: (1) defining an integrated risk-informed analysis process for digital I&C upgrades including hazard analysis, reliability analysis, and consequence analysis; (2) applying systematic and risk-informed tools to address CCFs and quantify responding failure probabilities for digital I&C technologies; (3) evaluating the impact of digital failures at the individual level, system level, and plant level; and (4) providing insights and suggestions on designs to manage the risks, thus to support the development, licensing, and deployment of advanced digital I&C technologies on NPPs. Upgrading digital I&C (safety and non-safety related) systems in existing NPPs within a cost-effective and regulatory acceptable way offers the foremost means of performance improvements and cost-reductions for existing NPPs. One key outcome of this project is to perform plant-specific risk assessment to provide a sustainable scientific support for enabling industry to balance the digital-related risks, costs, reliability, and safety.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) Reliability and Analysis Evolution

The Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is a large thrust class, reusable, staged combustion cycle rocket engine employing liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen propellants. A cluster of three SSMEs is used on every space shuttle mission to propel the space shuttle orbiter vehicle into low earth orbit. Development of the SSME began in the early 70 s and the first flight of the space shuttle occurred in 1981. Today, the SSME has accrued over one million seconds of ground test and flight operational time, launching 129 space shuttle missions. Given that the SSME is used to launch a manned vehicle, its reliability must be commensurate for the task. At the same time, the SSME is a high performance, high power density engine which traditionally does not lend itself towards high reliability. Furthermore, throughout its history, the SSME operational envelope has been explored and expanded leading to several major test failures. Hence, assessing the reliability of the SSME throughout its history has been a challenging undertaking. This paper provides a review and discussion of SSME reliability assessment techniques and results over its history. Basic reliability drivers such as engine design, test program, major failures, redesigns and upgrades will also be discussed.

Stephens, Walter E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of HRA method predictions against operating crew performance: Part II: Overall simulator data, HRA method predictions, and intra-method comparisons

This is the third in a series of four papers documenting two large-scale human reliability analysis (HRA) empirical studies – the International HRA Empirical Study and the US HRA Empirical Study. Here, the goal of the two studies was to develop an empirically-based understanding of the performance, strengths, and weaknesses of HRA methods by comparing HRA method predictions against actual operator performance in simulated accident scenarios on nuclear power plant (NPP) simulators. However, since in most cases only a single HRA team applied a given method in the International study, it was often difficult to separate analyst effects from variability in results related to the methods themselves. Since at least two HRA teams used each of the HRA methods in the US Study, intra-method comparisons were performed to identify method strengths and weaknesses independent of analyst specific effects where possible. This paper first summarizes the intra-method comparison results from the U.S. Study. Then, it discusses the reasons for the observed HRA predictive differences and the underlying methodological and guidance limitations that permitted the differences to arise. In the fourth paper, this information is combined wit h the results of the comparisons of method predictions to the actual crew data, from both the International and U.S. Studies, to develop the final conclusions about overall strengths and weaknesses of HRA methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

PV Field Reliability Status--Analysis of 100,000 Solar Systems

In this paper, we analyzed annual production data from 100 000 photovoltaic systems as well as comments relating to their performance and maintenance. Our analysis revealed that 80% to 90% of all systems performed within 10% of the predicted production or better. Also, 56% of the systems were still performing above P50 or the median at 5 years. However, a small but significant tail of about 7000 systems perform below P90 expectations. In general, residential systems have a lower rate of failure than utility or commercial systems. Despite higher rates of component failures, utility systems lose less power than residential or commercial systems. This outcome is likely due to closer monitoring and better operations and maintenance practices. Inverters are still the components that reportedly fail most often (4%-6%), but other failures such as unspecified repair and meters cause more production loss. Reported module failures are relatively rare (0.2%) and are within the range of historical values. Installation quality affects performance and safety as indicated by data showing connector, wiring, breaker, and fuse failures due to undersizing, electrical design, and improper connection. Lastly, early detection of degradation and proactive response resulted in less impact on production than reactive, unplanned repairs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A reliable numerical analysis for large-scale modelling of a high-level radioactive waste repository in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone

Not Available

Plúa, C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Physics-informed machine learning assisted uncertainty quantification for the corrosion of dissimilar material joints

Jointing techniques like the Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR), Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) and Rivet-Weld (RW) joints are used for mass production of dissimilar material joints due to their high performance, short cycle time, and adaptability. However, the service life and safety usage of these joints can be largely impacted by the galvanic corrosion due to the difference in equilibrium potentials between the metals with the presence of electrolyte. Here, in this paper, we focus on Al-Fe galvanic corrosion and develop physics-informed machine learning based surrogate model for statistical corrosion analysis, which enables the reliability analysis of dissimilar material joints under corrosion environment. In this study, a physics-based finite element (FE) corrosion model has been developed to simulate the galvanic corrosion between a Fe cathode and an Al anode. Geometric and environmental factors including crevice gap, roughness of anode, conductivity, and the temperature of the electrolyte are investigated. Further, a thorough Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis is conducted for the overall corrosion behavior of the Fe-Al joints. It is found that the electrolyte conductivity has the largest effects on the material loss and needs to be managed closely for better corrosion control. This will help in designing and manufacturing joints with improved corrosion performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 4: Drivetrain Analysis for Reliable Design

This chapter described common design practices for the wind-turbine gearboxes and main bearings, along with modelling and simulation techniques employed to support and evaluate the development process. These design criteria and requirements are based on several major failure modes for gears and bearings. However, not all of the failure modes are understood well enough to be included in the design standards primarily because of the complexity of the modelling and loading conditions. Drivetrain modelling for design was discussed, and most of the modelling tools used in design are static in nature.

17 WIND ENERGY↗