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Probabilistic modeling and stochastic process investigations to provide measures of quality of performance and reliability for systems engineering - Chebyshev approximation
GRCop-84 (Cu-8 at.% Cr-4 at.% Nb) was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center for use in regeneratively cooled rocket engines. This alloy possesses an excellent combination of conductivity, thermal expansion, strength, creep resistance, ductility, and low-cycle fatigue (LCF) life. In comparison to the currently used alloy, NARloy-Z (Cu-3 wt % Ag-0.5 wt % Zr), GRCop-84's significantly better properties give it the potential for significant gains in engine performance and reliability. For GRCop-84 to be safely used in a rocket engine, it is critical to develop a detailed data base of the important thermophysical and mechanical properties. Work has focused on five major properties: thermal conductivity, thermal expansion, tensile strength, creep resistance, and LCF life. The analysis went beyond simply measuring the data and reporting averages. A detailed statistical analysis was conducted that allowed regression of the data over the entire temperature range tested and establishment of design minimums. The design values were expressed as simple mathematical formulas that are highly amenable to use in computer codes such as in finite element analysis and related computer modeling work.
The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. [7] The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a “single source of truth” about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the designs. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering, using these recommended modeling techniques, to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risk assessment and communication.
The incorporation of a number of additional capabilities into an existing Weibull analysis computer program and the results of Monte Carlo computer simulation study to evaluate the usefulness of the Weibull methods using samples with a very small number of failures and extensive censoring are discussed. Since the censoring mechanism inherent in the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) data is hard to analyze, it was decided to use a random censoring model, generating censoring times from a uniform probability distribution. Some of the statistical techniques and computer programs that are used in the SSME Weibull analysis are described. The methods documented in were supplemented by adding computer calculations of approximate (using iteractive methods) confidence intervals for several parameters of interest. These calculations are based on a likelihood ratio statistic which is asymptotically a chisquared statistic with one degree of freedom. The assumptions built into the computer simulations are described. The simulation program and the techniques used in it are described there also. Simulation results are tabulated for various combinations of Weibull shape parameters and the numbers of failures in the samples.
A plasma igniter has been developed for initiating combustion in liquid-propellant rocket engines. The device propels a hot, dense plasma jet, consisting of elemental fluorine and fluorine compounds, into the combustion chamber to ignite the cold propellant mixture. The igniter consists of two coaxial, cylindrical electrodes with a cylindrical bar of solid Teflon plastic in the region between them. The outer electrode is a metal (stainless steel) tube; the inner electrode is a metal pin (mild steel, stainless steel, tungsten, or thoriated-tungsten). The Teflon bar fits snugly between the two electrodes and provides electrical insulation between them. The Teflon bar may have either a flat surface, or a concave, conical surface at the open, down-stream end of the igniter (the igniter face). The igniter would be mounted on the combustion chamber of the rocket engine, either on the injector-plate at the upstream side of the engine, or on the sidewalls of the chamber. It also might sit behind a valve that would be opened just prior to ignition, and closed just after, in order to prevent the Teflon from melting due to heating from the combustion chamber.
Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) has tested rocket engines with high pulse frequencies. This has resulted in the use of some of WSTF's existing thrust stands, which were designed for static loading, in tests with large dynamic forces. In order to ensure that the thrust stands can withstand the dynamic loading of high pulse frequency engines while still accurately reporting the test data, their vibrational modes must be characterized. If it is found that they have vibrational modes with frequencies near the pulsing frequency of the test, then they must be modified to withstand the dynamic forces from the pulsing rocket engines. To make this determination the Mobile Modal Testing Unit (MMTU), a system capable of determining the resonant frequencies and mode shapes of a structure, was used on the test stands at WSTF. Once the resonant frequency has been determined for a test stand, it can be compared to the pulse frequency of a test engine to determine whether or not that stand can avoid resonance and reliably test that engine. After analysis of test stand 406 at White Sands Test Facility, it was determined that natural frequencies for the structure are located around 75, 125, and 240 Hz, and thus should be avoided during testing.
This presentation discusses the facts, trends and challenges in software engineering and software reliability for space applications.
NASA's Vision for Exploration requires a safe, reliable, affordable upper stage engine to power the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle (CLV) and the Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle (CaLV). The J-2X engine epitomizes NASA's philosophy of employing legacy knowledge, heritage hardware, and commonality to carry the next generation of explorers into low-Earth orbit and out into the solar system. As envisioned by the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS), the reference lunar mission would begin by launching the Ares V into orbit with the Earth Departure Stage (EDS) transporting the Lunar Surface Access Module (LSAM), followed by the Ares I, carrying the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle, which would rendezvous with the EDS/LSAM before beginning its journey to the Moon.
The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.
The engineering process of Design for Reliability (DfR) is well established in the automotive and aerospace industries. DfR should be useful in the future development of space life support systems. DfR is a sequence of tasks that develop system requirements and plan reliability analysis and testing. First and fundamentally, the reliability requirement is defined. Next the system reliability model is developed, often using a reliability block diagram. The overall system reliability requirement is allocated to the subsystems and an estimate of the attainable reliability is made. This expected reliability can be improved by simplifying the design by removing components or by replacing less reliable components. Improving reliability can require difficult compromises, such as reducing performance requirements, increasing budget, or extending testing. The actual system reliability can be determined only by testing, which should continue long enough to provide the required confidence in the measured value. New systems often have unexpected design errors that cause failures in early testing. The usual reliability improvement process of testing, finding the failure modes, and redesigning to remove them reduces the failure rate and is referred to as “reliability growth.” After redesign has been completed, the system should be further tested to determine the actual achieved reliability more accurately. If the final system failure rate is too high, redundant systems can be used to improve overall operational reliability. Adding redundancy simply to increase the one- or two-fault tolerance metric may sometimes reduce reliability. Reliability can be improved in three ways: redesigning the system to include more reliable subsystems and components, reliability growth testing and failure mode removal, and by using parallel redundant systems. DfR should combine these approaches to achieve the required reliability while managing performance, cost, and schedule.
This paper provides a personal view of computational fluid dynamics. The main theme is divided into two categories - one dealing with algorithms and engineering applications and the other with scientific investigations. The former category may be termed computational aerodynamics, with the objective of providing reliable aerodynamic or engineering predictions. The latter category is essentially basic research, where the algorithmic tools are used to unravel and elucidate fluid-dynamic phenomena hard to obtain in a laboratory. A critique of the numerical solution techniques for both compressible and incompressible flows is included. The discussion on scientific investigations deals in particular with transition and turbulence.
Under NASA's Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI), the NASA Lewis Research Center is developing the technology needed for free-piston Stirling engines as a candidate power source for space systems in the late 1990's and into the next century. Space power requirements include high efficiency, very long life, high reliability, and low vibration. Furthermore, system weight and operating temperature are important. The free-piston Stirling engine has the potential for a highly reliable engine with long life because it has only a few moving parts, non-contacting gas bearings, and can be hermetically sealed. These attributes of the free-piston Stirling engine also make it a viable candidate for terrestrial applications. In cooperation with the Department of Energy, system designs are currently being completed that feature the free-piston Stirling engine for terrestrial applications. Industry teams were assembled and are currently completing designs for two Advanced Stirling Conversion Systems utilizing technology being developed under the NASA CSTI Program. These systems, when coupled with a parabolic mirror to collect the solar energy, are capable of producing about 25 kW of electricity to a utility grid. Industry has identified a niche market for dish Stirling systems for worldwide remote power application. They believe that these niche markets may play a major role in the introduction of Stirling products into the commercial market.
The objective of any reliability growth study is prediction of reliability at some future instant. Another objective is statistical inference, estimation of reliability for reliability demonstration. A cause of concern for the development engineer and management is that reliability demands an excessive number of tests for reliability demonstration. For example, the Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) program requirements call for .99 reliability at 90 pct. confidence for demonstration. This requires running 230 tests with zero failure if a classical binomial model is used. It is therefore also an objective to explore the reliability growth models for reliability demonstration and tracking and their applicability to NASA programs. A reliability growth model is an analytical tool used to monitor the reliability progress during the development program and to establish a test plan to demonstrate an acceptable system reliability.
The use of analytical redundancy to improve gas turbine engine control system reliability through sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation is surveyed. Both the theoretical and application papers that form the technology base of turbine engine analytical redundancy research are discussed. Also, several important application efforts are reviewed. An assessment of the state-of-the-art in analytical redundancy technology is given.
The use of analytical redundancy to improve gas turbine engine control system reliability through sensor failure detection, isolation, and accommodation is surveyed. Both the theoretical and application papers that form the technology base of turbine engine analytical redundancy research are discussed. Also, several important application efforts are reviewed. An assessment of the state-of-the-art in analytical redundancy technology is given.
The use of reliable, high-temperature, lightweight materials in the manufacture of aircraft engines is expected to result in lower fossil and biofuel consumption, thereby leading to cost savings and lower carbon emissions due to air travel. Although nickel-based superalloy blades and vanes have been successfully used in aircraft engines for several decades, there has been an increased effort to develop high-temperature, lightweight, creep-resistant substitute materials under various NASA programs over the last two decades. As a result, there has been a great deal of interest in developing SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) due to their higher damage tolerance compared to monolithic ceramics. Current-generation SiC/SiC ceramic matrix composites rely almost entirely on the SiC fibers to carry the load, owing to the premature cracking of the matrix during loading. Thus, the high-temperature usefulness of these CMCs falls well below their theoretical capabilities. The objective of this work is to develop a new class of high-temperature, lightweight, self-healing, SiC fiber-reinforced, engineered matrix ceramic composites.
The successful hot fire demonstration of a pulsing liquid hydrogen/liquid oxygen and gaseous hydrogen/liquid oxygen attitude control propulsion system thruster is described. The test was the result of research to develop a simple, lightweight, and high performance reaction control system without the traditional requirements for extensive periods of engine thermal conditioning, or the use of complex equipment to convert both liquid propellants to gas prior to delivery to the engine. Significant departures from conventional injector design practice were employed to achieve an operable design. The work discussed includes thermal and injector manifold priming analyses, subscale injector chilldown tests, and 168 full scale and 550 N (1250 lbF) rocket engine tests. Ignition experiments, at propellant temperatures ranging from cryogenic to ambient, led to the generation of a universal spark ignition system which can reliably ignite an engine when supplied with liquid, two phase, or gaseous propellants. Electrical power requirements for spark igniter are very low.
Engine trade studies and systems analyses leading to a baseline engine selection for advanced expander cycle engine are discussed with emphasis on: (1) performance optimization of advanced expander cycle engines in the 10 to 20K pound thrust range; (2) selection of a recommended advanced expander engine configuration based on maximized performance and minimized mission risk, and definition of the components for this configuration; (3) characterization of the low thrust adaptation requirements and performance for the staged combustion engine; (4) generation of a suggested safety and reliability approach for OTV engines independent of engine cycle; (5) definition of program risk relationships between expander and staged combustion cycle engines; and (6) development of schedules and costs for the DDT&E, production, and operation phases of the 10K pound thrust expander engine program.