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At least 289 records · Page 16

Bed form-induced hyporheic exchange and geochemical hotspots

Small-scale bed form topographies control hyporheic exchange and biogeochemical processes within aquatic sediments, which ultimately affect water quality and nutrient cycling at the watershed scale. The impact of three-dimensional and small-scale bed form topographies on hyporheic exchange and solute mixing is investigated in the present work. The effect of bed form morphologies on the development of zones of enhanced reaction rates (i.e., hotspots) is also studied. A computational fluid dynamics model to simulate river flow over bed forms is combined with a subsurface flow and multicomponent reactive solute transport model. A wide variety of bed form topographies are generated using geometric models by varying parameters controlling curvature as well as bed form wavelength and amplitude. The results in this research suggest that out-of-phase bed forms generate more complex hyporheic flow patterns which reduce the efficiency of solute transformations. Higher phase shifts in bed form shapes result in overall higher average velocity, larger zones of enhanced pressure and reaction rates, and higher amounts of solute exchange. Moreover, the bed form shapes control the reaction process for a wide range of sediment conductivities. Here this study advances the understanding of the effects of complex and small scale morphological features on hyporheic exchange processes including the rate and spatio-temporal distribution of reaction hotspots.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model files for estimating snow dynamics and stable water isotopes across the East River, CO.

A coupled hydrologic and snowpack stable water isotope model is used to assesses controls on isotopic inputs across the East River, Colorado, a large, mountainous basin. The hydrologic model uses the semi-empirical, spatially distributed and publicly available U.S. Geological Survey numerical code Precipitation-Modelling Runoff System (PRMS). Water and energy are tracked daily through the atmosphere, canopy and subsurface at a 100-m grid resolution. The isotope mass balance model follows previous work by Ala-aho et al. (2017) to track stable isotopes entering the soil system as snowmelt or rain. Water stores and fluxes needed for the isotope model use hydrologic model output for each timestep and model modeled grid location. This data package provides all files related to the hydrologic model (executable, input and output files), the isotopic model calibration and the historic isotopic model (water years 2015-2020). The isotope model source code and executable are provided. The file "readme.txt" includes information on the file structure, steps to run the model, and description of included folders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

General Report of the Researches of Snowpack Properties, Snowmelt Runoff and Evapotranspiration in Japan

A method was developed for estimating the distribution of snow and the snow water equivalent in Japan by combining LANDSAT data with the degree day method. A snow runoff model was improved and applied to the Okutadami River basin. The Martinec Rango model from the U.S. was applied to Japanese river basins to verify its applicability. This model was then compared with the Japanese model. Analysis of microwave measurements obtained by a radiometer on a tower over dry snow in Hokkaido indicate a certain correlation between brightness temperature and snowpack properties. A correlation between brightness temperature and depth of dry snow in an inland plain area was revealed in NIMBUS SMMR data obtained from the U.S. Calculation of evaporation using airborne remote sensing data and a Priestley-Taylor type of equation shows that the differentiation of evaporation with vegetation type is not remarkable because of little evapotransportation in winter.

Takeda, K.↗

Closure to “Coincidence Risk Analysis of Floods Using Multivariate Copulas: Case Study of Jinsha River and Min River, China” by Yang Peng, Yulong Shi, Hongxiang Yan, Kai Chen, and Jipeng Zhang

We would like to thank the discusser for his comments on the coincidence flood risk modeling in Jinsha River and Min River, China. The discusser’s comment brings focus to the discussion of extreme-value selection methodology and historical flood information. In flood risk analysis, we acknowledge that there is always an alternative modeling approach that could be used to generate desired prediction results. In this comment, the discusser made two valuable points regarding the original paper, and the following two paragraphs provide our responses.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States

Abstract This study uses a high-resolution, process-based modeling framework to assess the impacts of changing climate on water resources for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the southeastern United States. A 33-member ensemble of hydrologic projections was generated using 3 distributed hydrologic models (Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, Variable Infiltration Capacity, and Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model) of different complexity. These hydrologic models were driven by dynamically downscaled and bias-corrected future climate simulations from 11 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 emission scenario, with 40 years each in baseline (1966–2005) and future (2011–2050) periods. The hydroclimate response, in general, projects an increase in mean seasonal precipitation, runoff, and streamflow. The high and low flows are projected to increase and decrease, respectively, in general, suggesting increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events and intensification of the hydrologic cycle. The uncertainty associated with the ensemble hydroclimate response, analyzed through an analysis of variance technique, suggests that the choice of climate model is more critical than the choice of hydrologic model for the studied region. This study provides in-depth insights of hydroclimate response and associated uncertainties to support informed decisions by water resource managers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward more mechanistic representations of biogeochemical processes in stream and river networks: Implementation and demonstration of a multiscale model : Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive supports the ORNL-SFA and IDEAS-Waterhsed publication submitted to Environmental Modeling and Software. A recently introduced multiscale model for representing the combined effect of hyporheic exchange flows and small-scale hyporheic-zone biogeochemical processes is extended from the reach scale to river network scales. The ADELS (Advection Dispersion Equation with Lagrangian Subgrid) model uses a one-dimensional advection-dispersion-reaction equation for the channel network and couples that equation at each channel location to a one-dimensional advection-reaction subgrid model representing an ensemble of streamlines that are diverted into the hyporheic zone before returning to the channel. The subgrid model is written in a computationally advantageous Lagrangian form with hyporheic age replacing the hyporheic travel distance. In the paper, we summarized implementation in the integrated surface/subsurface hydrology modeling system Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS).

East Fork Poplar Creek↗

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Intrajunction Dispersion at a Well-Mixed Tidal River Junction

In this paper, the relative importance of small-scale, intrajunction flow features such as shear layers, separation zones, and secondary flows on dispersion in a well-mixed tidal river junction is explored. A fully nonlinear, nonhydrostatic, and unstructured three-dimensional (3D) model is used to resolve supertidal dispersion via scalar transport at a well-mixed tidal river junction. Mass transport simulated in the junction is compared against predictions using a simple node-channel model to quantify the effects of small-scale, 3D intrajunction flow features on mixing and dispersion. The effects of three-dimensionality are demonstrated by quantifying the difference between two-dimensional (2D) and 3D model results. An intermediate 3D model that does not resolve the secondary circulation or the recirculating flow at the junction is also compared to the 3D model to quantify the relative sensitivity of mixing on intrajunction flow features. Resolution of complex flow features simulated by the full 3D model is not always necessary because mixing is primarily governed by bulk flow splitting due to the confluence–diffluence cycle. Finally, results in 3D are comparable to the 2D case for many flow pathways simulated, suggesting that 2D modeling may be reasonable for nonstratified and predominantly hydrostatic flows through relatively straight junctions, but not necessarily for the full junction network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Models, data, and scripts associated with “Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning”

This data package is associated with the publication “Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning’’ submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation (Scheibe et al. 2024). River sediment respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive to obtain and there is no physical model for predicting this quantity. The Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemisty Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) observational data set (Goldman et al.; 2020) is used to train machine learning (ML) models to predict respiration rates at unsampled sites. This repository archives training data, ML models, predictions, and model evaluation results for the purposes of reproducibility of the results in the associated manuscript and community reuse of the ML models trained in this project. One of the key challenges in this work was to find an optimum configuration for machine learning models to work with this feature-rich (i.e. 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we used a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: 1) a stacked ensemble of ML models that can automatically optimize hyperparameters to accelerate the process of model selection and tuning and 2) feature permutation importance to iteratively select the most important features (i.e. inputs) to the ML models. The major elements of this ML workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based, thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. This data package is associated with the GitHub repository found at Please see the file level metadata (flmd; “sl-archive-whondrs_flmd.csv”) for a list of all files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. Please see the data dictionary (dd; “sl-archive-whondrs_dd.csv”) for a list of all column headers contained within comma separated value (csv) files in this data package and descriptions for each. The GitHub repository is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; (4) “examples” contains the visualization of the results in this repository including plotting scripts for the manuscript (e.g., model evaluation, FPI results) and scripts for running predictions with the ML models (i.e., reusing the trained ML models); (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. Furthermore, depending on the number of features used to train the ML models, the preprocessing and postprocessing scripts, and their intermediate results, can also be different branch-to-branch. The “main-*” branches are meant to be starting points (i.e. trunks) for each model branch (i.e. sprouts). Please see the Branch Navigation section in the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation.

13C↗

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of the gradient method to Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov theory

A computer code is presented for solving the equations of the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) theory by the gradient method, motivated by the need for efficient and robust codes to calculate the configurations required by extensions of the HFB theory, such as the generator coordinate method. The code is organized with a separation between the parts that are specific to the details of the Hamiltonian and the parts that are generic to the gradient method. This permits total flexibility in choosing the symmetries to be imposed on the HFB solutions. The code solves for both even and odd particle-number ground states, with the choice determined by the input data stream. Application is made to the nuclei in the sd shell using the universal sd-shell interaction B (USDB) shell-model Hamiltonian.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Simulation of annual biogeochemical cycles of nutrient balance, phytoplankton bloom(s), and DO in Puget Sound using an unstructured grid model

Nutrient pollution from rivers, nonpoint source runoff, and nearly 100 wastewater discharges is a potential threat to the ecological health of Puget Sound with evidence of hypoxia in some basins. However, the relative contributions of loads entering Puget Sound from natural and anthropogenic sources, and the effects of exchange flow from the Pacific Ocean are not well understood. Development of a quantitative model of Puget Sound is thus presented to help improve our understanding of the annual biogeochemical cycles in this system using the unstructured grid Finite-Volume Coastal Ocean Model framework and the Integrated Compartment Model (CE-QUAL-ICM) water quality kinetics. Results based on 2006 data show that phytoplankton growth and die-off, succession between two species of algae, nutrient dynamics, and dissolved oxygen in Puget Sound are strongly tied to seasonal variation of temperature, solar radiation, and the annual exchange and flushing induced by upwelled Pacific Ocean waters. Concentrations in the mixed outflow surface layer occupying approximately 5–20 m of the upper water column show strong effects of eutrophication from natural and anthropogenic sources, spring and summer algae blooms, accompanied by depleted nutrients but high dissolved oxygen levels. The bottom layer reflects dissolved oxygen and nutrient concentrations of upwelled Pacific Ocean water modulated by mixing with biologically active surface outflow in the Strait of Juan de Fuca prior to entering Puget Sound over the Admiralty Inlet. The effect of reflux mixing at the Admiralty Inlet sill resulting in lower nutrient and higher dissolved oxygen levels in bottom waters of Puget Sound than the incoming upwelled Pacific Ocean water is reproduced. Finally, by late winter, with the reduction in algal activity, water column constituents of interest, were renewed and the system appeared to reset with cooler temperature, higher nutrient, and higher dissolved oxygen waters from the Pacific Ocean.

biogeochemical model, 3-D hydrodynamic model, nutr↗

Skill of Mesoscale Models in Forecasting Springtime Macrophysical Cloud Properties at the Savannah River Site in the Southeastern US

Predicting boundary layer clouds is important for the accurate modeling of pollutant dispersion. Higher resolution mesoscale models would be expected to produce better forecasts of cloud properties that affect dispersion. Using ceilometer observations, we assess the skill of two operational mesoscale models (RAMS and WRF) to forecast cloud base altitude and cloud fraction at the Savannah River Site in the southeastern US during the springtime. Verifications were performed at small spatial and temporal scales necessary for dispersion modeling. Both models were unreliable with a 50% (RAMS) and a 46% (WRF) rate of predicting clouds observed by the ceilometer which led to low cloud fraction predictions. Results indicated that WRF better predicted daytime cloud bases from convection that occurred frequently later in the period and RAMS better predicted nighttime cloud bases. Using root mean squared error (RMSE) to score the forecast periods also highlighted this diurnal dichotomy, with WRF scores better during the day and RAMS scores better at night. Analysis of forecast errors revealed divergent model cloud base biases—WRF low and RAMS high. A hybrid solution which weighs more heavily the RAMS nighttime forecasts and WRF daytime forecasts will likely provide the best prediction of cloud properties for dispersion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – Part 2: The added value from climate forecast models

This is the second paper of a two-part series on introducing an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin in northern China. While the natural hydrological predictability in terms of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) is investigated in a companion paper, the added value from eight North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate forecast models with a grand ensemble of 99 members is assessed in this paper, with an implicit consideration of human-induced uncertainty in the hydrological models through a post-processing procedure. The forecast skill in terms of anomaly correlation (AC) for 2 m air temperature and precipitation does not necessarily decrease over leads but is dependent on the target month due to a strong seasonality for the climate over the Yellow River basin. As there is more diversity in the model performance for the temperature forecasts than the precipitation forecasts, the grand NMME ensemble mean forecast has consistently higher skill than the best single model up to 6 months for the temperature but up to 2 months for the precipitation. The NMME climate predictions are downscaled to drive the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model and a global routing model regionalized over the Yellow River basin to produce forecasts of soil moisture, runoff and streamflow. And the NMME/VIC forecasts are compared with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction method (ESP/VIC) through 6-month hindcast experiments for each calendar month during 1982–2010. As verified by the VIC offline simulations, the NMME/VIC is comparable to the ESP/VIC for the soil moisture forecasts, and the former has higher skill than the latter only for the forecasts at long leads and for those initialized in the rainy season. The forecast skill for runoff is lower for both forecast approaches, but the added value from NMME/VIC is more obvious, with an increase of the average AC by 0.08–0.2. To compare with the observed streamflow, both the hindcasts from NMME/VIC and ESP/VIC are post-processed through a linear regression model fitted by using VIC offline-simulated streamflow. The post-processed NMME/VIC reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) from the post-processed ESP/VIC by 5–15 %. And the reduction occurs mostly during the transition from wet to dry seasons. As a result, with the consideration of the uncertainty in the hydrological models, the added value from climate forecast models is decreased especially at short leads, suggesting the necessity of improving the large-scale hydrological models in human-intervened river basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

L3:PHI.CMD.P13.02 Support for CILC L1 Milestone Using STAR-CCM+

This report documents work performed to support Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL) modeling of Chalk River Unidentified Deposit (CRUD) Induced Power Shift (CIPS) and CRUD Induced Local Corrosion (CILC) using the Cicada package. The work documented here is intended to complement current and future CIPS and CILC modeling activities in CASL. We provide tools for crud and corrosion-related simulation and analysis by developing a better understanding of the interplay between the coupled physics that describe the phenomena at different time and length scales. We intend to use these models to better inform future simulation capability and development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impact of climate change on adaptive management decisions in the face of water scarcity

Reoccurring drought through the early 2000s has caused a serious water scarcity issue in the Colorado River Basin. Previous modeling studies have focused on the impact of climate change without considering the adaptive behaviors of farmers and under-utilized Indian water rights. Here, we use a coupled agent-based water resource model (ABM) to investigate how the adaptive decisions of farmers can affect water resource management under both climate change impacts and fully utilized Indian water right conditions. We used five General Circulation Model projections with RCP8.5 scenarios for the study. The results of farm-level decision-making showed different responses in irrigated areas that were changing due to climate change impact. While winter precipitation changes might partially explain the behavior changes, no specific pattern could be concluded based on their location. Also, farmers’ responses about annual water diversion showed more significant inter-year variation compared to irrigated areas. Basin-level metrics showed that climate change impacts will generally worsen water scarcity issues as measured in Navajo Reservoir storage, flow to Lake Powell, and instream flow requirement. But these basin-level water scarcity metrics cannot reflect individual farm-level impacts under climate change, which is why modeling the bottom-up management actions is necessary. When the under-utilized Indian water rights are fully used, it is more likely to trigger the shortage sharing agreement due to the higher tribal water depletion. Evaluation of model uncertainty and a more realistic setup for adaptive actions under drought contingency plans are suggested for future research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗