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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Data assimilation in a solar dynamo model using Ensemble Kalman Filters: sensitivity and robustness in reconstruction of meridional flow speed

We implement an Ensemble Kalman Filter procedure using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed for assimilating “synthetic” meridional flow-speed data in a Babcock–Leighton-type flux-transport solar dynamo model. By performing several “observing system simulation experiments,” we reconstruct time variation in meridional flow speed and analyze sensitivity and robustness of reconstruction. Using 192 ensemble members including 10 observations, each with 4% error, we find that flow speed is reconstructed best if observations of near-surface poloidal fields from low latitudes and tachocline toroidal fields from midlatitudes are assimilated. If observations include a mixture of poloidal and toroidal fields from different latitude locations, reconstruction is reasonably good for ⩽40% error in low-latitude data, even if observational error in polar region data becomes 200%, but deteriorates when observational error increases in low- and midlatitude data. Solar polar region observations are known to contain larger errors than those in low latitudes; our forward operator (a flux-transport dynamo model here) can sustain larger errors in polar region data, but is more sensitive to errors in low-latitude data. An optimal reconstruction is obtained if an assimilation interval of 15 days is used; 10- and 20-day assimilation intervals also give reasonably good results. Assimilation intervals <5 days do not produce faithful reconstructions of flow speed, because the system requires a minimum time to develop dynamics to respond to flow variations. Reconstruction also deteriorates if an assimilation interval >45 days is used, because the system’s inherent memory interferes with its short-term dynamics during a substantially long run without updating.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

A stochastically forced time delay solar dynamo model: Self-consistent recovery from a maunder-like grand minimum necessitates a mean-field alpha effect

Fluctuations in the Sun's magnetic activity, including episodes of grand minima such as the Maunder minimum have important consequences for space and planetary environments. However, the underlying dynamics of such extreme fluctuations remain ill-understood. Here, we use a novel mathematical model based on stochastically forced, non-linear delay differential equations to study solar cycle fluctuations in which time delays capture the physics of magnetic flux transport between spatially segregated dynamo source regions in the solar interior. Using this model, we explicitly demonstrate that the Babcock-Leighton poloidal field source based on dispersal of tilted bipolar sunspot flux, alone, cannot recover the sunspot cycle from a grand minimum. We find that an additional poloidal field source effective on weak fields—e.g., the mean-field α effect driven by helical turbulence—is necessary for self-consistent recovery of the sunspot cycle from grand minima episodes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Towards a Measurement of the Half-Life of {sup 60}Fe for Stellar and Early Solar System Models

Radioisotopes, produced in stars and ejected into the Interstellar Medium, are important for constraining stellar and early Solar System (ESS) models. In particular, the half-life of the radioisotope, Fe-60, can have an impact on calculations for the timing for ESS events, the distance to nearby Supernovae, and the brightness of individual, non-steady-state Fe gamma ray sources in the Galaxy. A half-life measurement has been undertaken at the University of Notre Dame and measurements of the Fe-60/Fe-56 concentration of our samples using Accelerator Mass Spectrometry has begun. This result will be coupled with an activity measurement of the isomeric decay in Co-60, which is the decay product of Fe. Preliminary half-life estimates of (2.53 +/- 0.24) x 10(6) years seem to confirm the recent measurement by Rugel et al. (2009). (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accelerator Mass Spectrometry↗
DOE OSTI2015

A COUPLED 2 × 2D BABCOCK–LEIGHTON SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL. I. SURFACE MAGNETIC FLUX EVOLUTION

The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series of papers we present one such dynamo model, and document its behavior and properties. This first paper focuses on one of the model’s key components, namely surface magnetic flux evolution. Using a genetic algorithm, we obtain best-fit parameters of the transport model by least-squares minimization of the differences between the associated synthetic synoptic magnetogram and real magnetographic data for activity cycle 21. Our fitting procedure also returns Monte Carlo-like error estimates. We show that the range of acceptable surface meridional flow profiles is in good agreement with Doppler measurements, even though the latter are not used in the fitting process. Using a synthetic database of bipolar magnetic region (BMR) emergences reproducing the statistical properties of observed emergences, we also ascertain the sensitivity of global cycle properties, such as the strength of the dipole moment and timing of polarity reversal, to distinct realizations of BMR emergence, and on this basis argue that this stochasticity represents a primary source of uncertainty for predicting solar cycle characteristics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Simplified model for solar cosmic ray exposure in manned Earth orbital flights

A simple calculational model is derived for use in estimating solar cosmic ray exposure to critical body organs in low-Earth orbit at the center of a large spherical shield of fixed thickness. The effects of the Earth's geomagnetic field, including storm conditions and the astronauts' self-shielding, are evaluated explicitly. The magnetic storm model is keyed to the planetary index K(sub p).

Wilson, John W.↗
DOE OSTI2016

A semiparametric spatio-temporal model for solar irradiance data

Here, we evaluate semiparametric spatio-temporal models for global horizontal irradiance at high spatial and temporal resolution. These models represent the spatial domain as a lattice and are capable of predicting irradiance at lattice points, given data measured at other lattice points. Using data from a 1.2 MW PV plant located in Lanai, Hawaii, we show that a semiparametric model can be more accurate than simple interpolation between sensor locations. We investigate spatio-temporal models with separable and nonseparable covariance structures and find no evidence to support assuming a separable covariance structure. These results indicate a promising approach for modeling irradiance at high spatial resolution consistent with available ground-based measurements. Moreover, this kind of modeling may find application in design, valuation, and operation of fleets of utility-scale photovoltaic power systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Solar Wind: From the Coronal Base to the Outer Heliosphere

We have developed a global fully three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic solar wind model for the region that extends from the coronal base to 100 AU. The simulation domain consists of tree spherical shell subdomains with computational boundaries between them placed at 20 solar radii and 0.3 AU. The location of the first boundary ensures that the flow at the boundary is both supersonic and super-Alfvenic. A steady-state solution in the innermost (coronal) region is obtained by the time-relaxation method. The solution uses a tilted dipole model or solar magnetograms as the boundary condition at the coronal base and includes a flux of Alfven waves in the WKB approximation which provide additional acceleration for the coronal outflow in the open field regions. The intermediate region solution is constructed by the integration of steady-state equations along radius using a marching scheme. The outer region solution (0.3-100 AU) is obtained again by the time relaxation and takes into account turbulence transport and heating as well as heating, flow deceleration, and other effects due to the interstellar pickup protons treated as a separate fluid. We use the model to simulate the global steady-state structure of the solar wind from the coronal base to the heliospheric boundary and compare the results with Ulysses and Voyager observations.

Usmanov, A. V↗
NASA NTRS1979

An expanded system simulation model for solar energy storage (technical report), volume 1

The simulation model for wind energy storage (SIMWEST) program now includes wind and/or photovoltaic systems utilizing any combination of five types of storage (pumped hydro, battery, thermal, flywheel and pneumatic) and is available for the UNIVAC 1100 series and the CDC 6000 series computers. The level of detail is consistent with a role of evaluating the economic feasibility as well as the general performance of wind and/or photovoltaic energy systems. The software package consists of two basic programs and a library of system, environmental, and load components. The first program is a precompiler which generates computer models (in FORTRAN) of complex wind and/or photovoltaic source/storage/application systems, from user specifications using the respective library components. The second program provides the techno-economic system analysis with the respective I/0, the integration of system dynamics, and the iteration for conveyance of variables.

Warren, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

A thermal/nonthermal model for solar microwave bursts

A theoretical framework is developed for modeling high-resolution spectra of microwave bursts from the Owens Valley Radio Observatory which can account for departures from expectations based on simple thermal or nonthermal models. Specifically, 80 percent of the events show more than one spectral peak; many bursts have a low-side spectral index steeper than the maximum expected slope; and the peak frequency stays relatively constant and changes intensity in concert with the secondary peaks throughout a given event's solution. It is shown that the observed spectral features can be explained through gyrosynchrotron radiation. The 'secondary' components seen on the LF side of many spectra are nonthermal enhancements superposed upon thermal radiation, occurring between the thermal harmonics. A steep optically thick slope is accounted for by the thermal absorption of nonthermal radiation. If the coexistence of thermal and nonthermal particles is interpreted in terms of electron heating and acceleration in current sheets, a changing electric field strength can account for the gross evolution of the microwave spectra.

Benka, Stephen G.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Flexible Models for Solar Sail Control

Solar sails employ a unique form of propulsion, gaining momentum from incident and reflected photons. However, the momentum transferred by an individual photon is extremely small. Consequently, a solar sail must have an extremely large surface area and also be extremely light. The flexibility of the sail then must be considered when designing or evaluating control laws. In this paper, solar sail flexibility and its influence on control effectiveness is considered using idealized two-dimensional models to represent physical phenomena rather than a specific design. Differential equations of motion are derived for a distributed parameter model of a flexible solar sail idealized as a rotating central hub with two opposing flexible booms. This idealization is appropriate for solar sail designs in which the vibrational modes of the sail and supporting booms move together allowing the sail mass to be distributed along the booms in the idealized model. A reduced analytical model of the flexible response is considered. Linear feedback torque control is applied at the central hub. Two translational disturbances and a torque disturbance also act at the central hub representing the equivalent effect of deflecting sail shape about a reference line. Transient simulations explore different control designs and their effectiveness for controlling orientation, for reducing flexible motion and for disturbance rejection. A second model also is developed as a two-dimensional "pathfinder" model to calculate the effect of solar sail shape on the resultant thrust, in-plane force and torque at the hub. The analysis is then extended to larger models using the finite element method. The finite element modeling approach is verified by comparing results from a two-dimensional finite element model with those from the analytical model. The utility of the finite element modeling approach for this application is then illustrated through examples based on a full finite element model.

Weaver Smith, Suzanne↗
NASA NTRS1977

Onboard magnetic field modeling for Solar Maximum Mission /SMM/

Analysis and simulation results are presented for magnetic field models for use in attitude acquisition onboard Solar Maximum Mission (SMM). A study was made of the degree of the spherical harmonic expansion of the magnetic field required, considering mission requirements, modeling errors, and magnetometer quantization and biases. It is shown that a fifth-degree field is sufficient to provide two-degree roll angle determination accuracy with a residual magnetic bias of 10 milligauss. Also, a spherical harmonic expansion for the McIlwain L-parameter is included for the first time. This parameter will be telemetered to ground with experimental data. The fifth-degree expansion will provide the L-parameter to within two percent of accepted values. The additional onboard computational burden is the storage of 36 coefficients and an increase of about 15% in computation time. Prototype flight code was developed which is anticipated to require about 2000 bytes of core storage and 30 milliseconds of computation time per orbit point on the NSSC-1 computer.

Headrick, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

Solar energetic particles↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Data-driven, Physics-based Transport Model of Solar Energetic Particles Accelerated by Coronal Mass Ejection Shocks Propagating through the Solar Coronal and Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

Abstract In an effort to develop computational tools for predicting radiation hazards from solar energetic particles (SEPs), we have created a data-driven physics-based particle transport model to calculate the injection, acceleration, and propagation of SEPs from coronal mass ejection (CME) shocks traversing through the solar corona and interplanetary magnetic fields. The model runs on an input of corona and heliospheric plasma and magnetic field configuration from a magnetohydrodynamic model driven by solar photospheric magnetic field measurements superposed with observed CME shocks determined from coronagraph images. SEP source particles are injected at the shock using the result of diffusive shock acceleration formulation from a characteristic obliquity-dependent injection from a heated solar wind thermal tail population. With several advanced computation techniques involving stochastic simulation and integration, the model obtains the particle intensity at any location in interplanetary space through the rigorous solution to the time-dependent 5D focus transport equation in the phase space that includes perpendicular diffusion. We apply the model to the 2011 November 3 CME event. The calculation results reproduce multispacecraft SEP observations at Earth and STEREO-B reasonably well without normalization of particle flux. The observations at STEREO-A can be reproduced by rescaling particle energy or modified energy dependence of particle diffusion coefficients. This circumsolar SEP event seen by spacecraft at Earth, STEREO-A, and STEREO-B at widely separated longitudes can be explained by diffusive shock acceleration by a single CME shock with a moderate speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Dynamic MHD modeling of solar wind corotating stream interaction regions observed by Pioneer 10 and 11

The use of the Pioneer 10 and 11 projects to test an MHD one-dimensional time-dependent model of corotating solar wind streams during the period from Sept. 30 to Nov. 25, 1973 is described. During this period, five or six corotating interaction regions streamed past the two spacecraft, and, as a result of multiple-spacecraft radial alignment and temporally varying conditions at the solar wind source, the pattern predicted by the Steinolfson et al. (1975) model could be compared with observations. The results, in general, support the validity of the model, although the neglect of thermal energy exchange leads to incorrect values for the proton temperature. A detailed analysis of a stream is discussed.

Dryer, M.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluating the Value of High Spatial Resolution in National Capacity Expansion Models using ReEDS

Power sector capacity expansion models (CEMs) have a broad range of spatial resolutions. This paper uses the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, a long-term national scale electric sector CEM, to evaluate the value of high spatial resolution for CEMs. ReEDS models the United States with 134 load balancing areas (BAs) and captures the variability in existing generation parameters, future technology costs, performance, and resource availability using very high spatial resolution data, especially for wind and solar modeled at 356 resource regions. In this paper we perform planning studies at three different spatial resolutions--native resolution (134 BAs), state-level, and NERC region level--and evaluate how results change under different levels of spatial aggregation in terms of renewable capacity deployment and location, associated transmission builds, and system costs. The results are used to ascertain the value of high geographically resolved models in terms of their impact on relative competitiveness among renewable energy resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗