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DOE OSTI2022

Scaling CFB risers: Maintaining microstructure dynamics

Over the years there have been numerous approaches to develop a scaleup methodology for circulating fluidized beds. Many of these past approaches have relied on macroscopic definitions of similitude to define dimensionless groups such as Reynolds number, Froude number, density ratios, and dimensional ratios involving different length scales. These approaches have demonstrated various levels of success, but often fail when used outside the bounds of experimental datasets. The issue with these methods is that they rely on macroscopic similitude with the hopes that those conditions would provide microscopic similitude as it does in single phase systems where the Buckingham Pi techniques have given reasonable success. Two of the main reasons for failure are 1) changing fluidization regimes and 2) changing material properties that result in the material falling into a different Geldart group. Both are certain to change the microstructure (local instantaneous volume solids fraction) and changes to the microstructure affect the interphase transport properties of the reactor system, namely the mass transfer and heat transfer. Here, this work presents a new approach towards scaling based upon maintaining similitude at the microscale. It reviews a novel dimensionless flow regime map developed from analysis of the deterministic chaos parameters and higher order moments to ensure microstructure similitude. The work then examines four cases from the literature to assess the scaling approach used: (1) same particle-different scale risers for Geldart Group B particles, (2) Glicksman scaling of atmospheric circulating fluidized bed combustor, (3) same particle-different scale risers for Geldart Group A particles and (4) Glicksman scaling for pressurized gasification. General findings are that none of the scaling approaches produced directly applicable microstructure similar behavior based upon the chaotic and higher moment analysis. The positive take away is that the approach can define scale conditions that will provide similar microstructure that can be us to predict transport behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cost estimation of balance of plant equipment scale up for proton exchange membrane water electrolyzer systems

Water electrolyzers that use electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen could be a key technology for increasing hydrogen supply to meet expanded and emerging market applications, although currently the capital costs of these electrolyzers are high. Here we examine cost reductions that might be achieved by scaling up proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer systems and leveraging economies of scale through balance of plant (BOP) components for system sizes between 1 MW and 1 GW. We estimate BOP equipment capital costs of about $\$$848/kW at 1 MW, potentially decreasing to $\$$87/kW at 1 GW (2022-dollar year basis) with most of the cost reduction happening as systems scale from 1 MW to 100 MW. We find that BOP subsystems hydrogen drying and water knockout benefited the most from economies-of-scale cost reductions, and piping, instrumentation, and housing and power electronics were less impacted. These cost reductions from economies of scale could be more significant than estimated cost reductions from manufacturing scale-up reported in literature. These results add to the knowledge base that could guide optimal system designs that balance process scale-up with plant modularization and numbering-up. We also estimate that scaling up BOP could potentially lower the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) by $\$$1.7-$\$$4.6/kg, depending on the scale-up magnitude and the plant capacity factor.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scale dependence in functional equivalence and difference in the soil microbiome

Climatic history can shape the functioning of soil microbial communities and thus rates of ecosystem processes such as organic matter decomposition. For example, broad spatial scale differences in climatic history, such as contrasting precipitation regimes, have been shown to generate unique microbial functional responses to contemporary moisture conditions. Yet it is an open question as to whether local differences in soil microclimate similarly influence the functional potential of decomposer communities. Here, we use a multi-scale approach within and among two temperate forest field sites to investigate this question. Soils from fifty-four microsites, that vary in their soil moisture climate-regimes, were used as inocula for a common leaf litter (Quercus rubra L.) in a controlled, laboratory microcosm study. Microcosms were placed under dry, mesic and wet lab-moisture conditions and the rate of carbon (C) mineralization of the litter was measured over 202 days. Our results reveal differences in decomposition rates under controlled conditions that highlight broad-scale functional differences between the soil communities at each site. Specifically, we found that C mineralization differed by as much as two-fold for soil communities when compared between the sites. Our results also show that functional differences of soil communities are observable within one site but not the other. In the site where local-scale functional legacies were apparent, the historical soil moisture microclimate-regimes generated as much as an 89% change in C mineralization rates of the leaf litter under the same contemporary, lab-imposed moisture conditions. Here, a similar pattern was not observable in the other site; instead, laboratory moisture conditions explained almost all variation in C mineralization. Notably, for the site with pronounced local-scale functional legacies, there was much greater within-site variation in field-soil microsite moisture than at the site which did not exhibit functional legacies, suggesting that the extent of local-scale variation in microclimate may act as control on whether local-scale functional legacies are observed. Regardless of whether this mechanism does explain our findings, our observations do confirm those from prior studies where regional-scale moisture-regime differences shape microbial function, and extend this prior work by providing evidence that pronounced local-scale differences in soil moisture microclimate-regimes are associated with microbial functional legacies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

GLUE Code: A framework handling communication and interfaces between scales

Many scientific applications are inherently multiscale in nature. Such complex physical phenomena often require simultaneous execution and coordination of simulations spanning multiple time and length scales. This is possible by combining expensive small-scale simulations (such as molecular dynamics simulations) with larger scale simulations (such continuum limit/hydro solvers) to allow for considerably larger systems using task and data parallelism. However, the granularity of the tasks can be very large and often leads to load imbalance. Traditionally, we use approximations to streamline the computation of the more costly interactions and this introduces trade-offs between simulation cost and accuracy. In recent years, the available computational power and the advances in machine learning have made computing these scale-bridging interactions and multiscale simulations more feasible. One driving application has been plasma modeling in inertial confinement fusion (ICF), which is fundamentally multiscale in nature. This requires deep understanding of how to extrapolate microscopic information into macroscopically relevant scales. For example, in ICF one needs an accurate understanding of the connection between experimental observables and the underlying microphysics. The properties of the larger scales are often affected by the microscale behavior incorporated usually into the equations of state and ionic and electronic transport coefficients (Liboff, 1959; Rinderknecht et al., 2014; Rosenberg et al., 2015; Ross et al., 2017). Instead of incorporating this information using reliable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, one often needs to use theoretical models, due to the inability of MD to reach engineering scales (Glosli et al., 2007; Marinak et al., 1998). One approach to resolve this issue is by coupling two MD simulations of different scales via force interpolation, e.g., the AdResS method (Krekeler et al., 2018; Nagarajan et al., 2013). Another approach, which we will pursue in the scope of this work, is by enabling scale bridging between MD simulations and meso/macro-scale models through the development and support of application programming interfaces that these different applications can interact through.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the hierarchy of structural and mechanical length scales in granular systems

Continuum modeling of granular media is made possible by the existence of a length scale at and above which grain-resolved properties can be meaningfully homogenized. Progress has been made in identifying such length scales relevant to local structural properties such as porosity. However, a systematic analysis of scales above which different mechanical properties can be homogenized has yet to emerge. Here, X-ray tomography and 3D X-ray diffraction data are examined to identify such length scales. The data was obtained in-situ in compressed granular materials with rigid and flexible confinement. The experimental data are supplemented with validated discrete element simulations which examine different system sizes and different boundary conditions. Overall, our study reveals a hierarchy in the length scales of granular solids, with lengths governing structural variables being the shortest, lengths of stress variables being intermediate, and lengths of energy dissipation being the longest. All structural and mechanical length scales obey a power law based on the theory of Geostatistics, implying that the length scales can be found by analyzing samples significantly smaller than the length scales themselves. The length scales are also found to be sensitive to boundary conditions, implying that they are extrinsic features of granular media.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Morphological and chemical characteristics of oxide scales formed on δ-Phase plutonium metal alloys I: 3.5 at% ga

Focused ion-beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM) and three-dimensional (3D) microscopy were applied to characterize the subsurface morphological features of oxide scales formed on an ~3.5 at.% Ga plutonium (Pu) metal alloy. Using the FIB-SEM technique, a number of morphological features formed in the interior of the oxide scale from Pu metal's environmental exposure were observed and identified. Here, Auger electron spectroscopy (AES) was utilized to characterize the cross-sectional composition and chemistry of the oxide scale. The oxide scale formed during inert storage and operational environments has a characteristic internal scale structure that includes a relatively dense oxide layer with some lateral and transverse cracking. Generally, after subsequent exposure to dry air environment, the oxide scale retained most of the original structural and chemical characteristics. However, after aging in a moist air environment, while the oxide scale was found to maintain the chemical characteristics of the source oxide, the scale was found to be on average thinner and without the previously observed internal microcracking, likely the result of spallation of the source scale during exposure to the new environment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic evolution of stochastic dynamical systems: A meso-scale perspective

Stochastic dynamical systems arise naturally across nearly all areas of science and engineering. Typically, a dynamical system model is based on some prior knowledge about the underlying dynamics of interest in which probabilistic features are used to quantify and propagate uncertainties associated with the initial conditions, external excitations, etc. From a probabilistic modeling standing point, two broad classes of methods exist, i.e. macro-scale methods and micro-scale methods. Classically, macro-scale methods such as statistical moments-based strategies are usually too coarse to capture the multi-mode shape or tails of a non-Gaussian distribution. Micro-scale methods such as random samples-based approaches, on the other hand, become computationally very challenging in dealing with high-dimensional stochastic systems. In view of these potential limitations, a meso-scale scheme is proposed here that utilizes a meso-scale statistical structure to describe the dynamical evolution from a probabilistic perspective. The significance of this statistical structure is twofold. First, it can be tailored to any arbitrary random space. Second, it not only maintains the probability evolution around sample trajectories but also requires fewer meso-scale components than the micro-scale samples. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed meso-scale scheme, a set of examples of increasing complexity are provided. Connections to the benchmark stochastic models as conservative and Markov models along with practical implementation guidelines are presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Temporal dynamics of large-scale structures for turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection in a moderate aspect-ratio cylinder

We investigate the spatial organization and temporal dynamics of large-scale, coherent structures in turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection via direct numerical simulation of a 6.3 aspect-ratio cylinder with Rayleigh and Prandtl numbers of 9.6×10 7 and 6.7, respectively. Fourier modal decomposition is performed to investigate the structural organization of the coherent turbulent motions by analysing the length scales, time scales and the underlying dynamical processes that are ultimately responsible for the large-scale structure formation and evolution. We observe a high level of rotational symmetry in the large-scale structure in this study and that the structure is well described by the first four azimuthal Fourier modes. Two different large-scale organizations are observed during the duration of the simulation and these patterns are dominated spatially and energetically by azimuthal Fourier modes with frequencies of 2 and 3. Studies of the transition between these two large-scale patterns, radial and vertical variations in the azimuthal energy spectra, as well as the spatial and modal variations in the system's correlation time are conducted. Rotational dynamics are observed for individual Fourier modes and the global structure with strong similarities to the dynamics that have been reported for unit aspect-ratio domains in prior works. It is shown that the large-scale structures have very long correlation time scales, on the order of hundreds to thousands of free-fall time units, and that they are the primary source for a horizontal inhomogeneity within the system that can be observed during a finite, but a very long-time simulation or experiment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Small-scale properties from exascale computations of turbulence on a $\mathbf{32\,768^3}$ periodic cube

To study the physics of small-scale properties of homogeneous isotropic turbulence at increasingly high Reynolds numbers, direct numerical simulation results have been obtained for forced isotropic turbulence at Taylor-scale Reynolds number R λ = 2500 on a 32 768 3 three-dimensional periodic domain using a GPU pseudo-spectral code on a 1.1 exaflop GPU supercomputer (Frontier). These simulations employ the multi-resolution independent simulation (MRIS) technique (Yeung & Ravikumar 2020, Phys. Rev. Fluids, vol. 5, 110517) where ensemble averaging is performed over multiple short segments initiated from velocity fields at modest resolution, and subsequently taken to higher resolution in both space and time. Reynolds numbers are increased by reducing the viscosity with the large-scale forcing parameters unchanged. Although MRIS segments at the highest resolution for each Reynolds number last for only a few Kolmogorov time scales, small-scale physics in the dissipation range is well captured – for instance, in the probability density functions and higher moments of the dissipation rate and enstrophy density, which appear to show monotonic trends persisting well beyond the Reynolds number range in prior works in the literature. Attainment of range of length and time scales consistent with classical scaling also reinforces the potential utility of the present high-resolution data for studies of short-time-scale turbulence physics at high Reynolds numbers where full-length simulations spanning many large-eddy time scales are still not accessible. A single snapshot of the 32 768 3 data is publicly available for further analyses via the Johns Hopkins Turbulence Database.

intermittency↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Electromagnetic Fields on Gypsum and Silica Scaling in Reverse Osmosis

Electromagnetic field (EMF) is a cost-effective, simple, and energy-efficient method for scale control in reverse osmosis (RO) systems. However, its effects on gypsum and silica scaling, as well as the underlying mechanisms, remain poorly understood. This study systematically investigates the effects of EMF treatment on gypsum and silica scaling in RO systems, utilizing synthetic brackish water and natural RO concentrate (ROC) from a desalination facility. For gypsum, EMF changes the crystal morphology, resulting in the formation of a porous, less compact scaling layer. It is more readily removed through hydraulic flushing (HF), enhancing scaling reversibility and water recovery. In the case of silica scaling, EMF promotes homogeneous polymerization in the bulk solution, producing larger silica particles that inhibit the formation of a dense, cross-linked gel layer on the membrane surface, mitigating flux decline. This study thus demonstrates EMF’s effectiveness in controlling gypsum scaling in undersaturated feedwaters when combined with HF and in mitigating silica scaling under both HF and non-HF conditions for supersaturated feedwaters. These findings underscore EMF’s versatility as a nonchemical approach for scale control in RO desalination and show its substantial potential to enhance membrane performance and operational efficiency in real-world water treatment applications.

Du, Xuewei [New Mexico State University, Las Cruce↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of dynamic-screw-pinch-driven, current-scaled MagLIF target implosion performance using 3D magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Analytic studies and two-dimensional “clean” radiation-magnetohydrodynamic (rad-MHD) simulations employing dynamical similarity driver-target scaling prescriptions [Ruiz et al., Phys. Plasmas 30, 032708 (2023)] suggest that Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) target implosions can scale to > 10 MJ DT fusion yields when peak drive current is increased beyond 60 MA. We present results from three-dimensional (3D) rad-MHD simulations of similarity-scaled MagLIF target implosions at peak drive currents ranging from 15 to 40 MA. Simulations in this study suggest that magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI) growth and feedthrough to the fuel region are more severe at higher drive current scales, which reduces the fusion yield compared to prior analytic and 2D clean simulation predictions. In contrast to standard MagLIF, simulations of current-scaled MagLIF target implosions driven by a dynamic screw pinch (DSP) demonstrate reduced MRTI feedthrough and greater fuel magnetization, resulting in improved thermonuclear performance and enhanced performance scaling with peak drive current. DSP drive enables additional scaling of the liner mass to increase liner radius but maintain implosion time, resulting in higher implosion velocities at the expense of increased susceptibility to MRTI. We present a current- and mass-scaled simulated DSP-MagLIF target implosion at the ∼ 40 MA peak current level that produces ignition scale performance, demonstrating a burn-averaged Lawson ignition parameter above unity and DT fusion yield above 1 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of ion-scale micro-turbulence in pedestal width of the DIII-D wide-pedestal QH mode

The low-edge rotation, intrinsically ELM-free, and improved confinement wide-pedestal quiescent H-mode (QH-mode), discovered in DIII-D tokamak, has pedestal widths exceeding the EPED-kinetic-ballooning mode (KBM) model scaling typically by at least 25%. Ion-scale ($k_yp_s$ < 1) microturbulence and its role in setting the pedestal structure is investigated using the radially local δ$f$ gyrokinetic code CGYRO. The electromagnetic trapped electron mode (TEM) is unstable at the pedestal top, while plasma beta (β$_e$) is ∼60% below the KBM onset threshold and the electron temperature gradient mode is found to be unstable in the peak gradient region. Nonlinear simulation reveals that the ion-scale turbulence could produce electron energy flux consistent with the flux inferred from power balance at the pedestal top, with a reasonable variation of the local shearing rate; and the local neoclassical transport from NEO is dominant over the simulated turbulent transport in the ion energy flux channel. The simulated ion-scale turbulence produces much lower electron energy flux than inferred from experiment in the pedestal peak gradient region. A correction to the EPED-KBM pedestal width scaling is obtained based on the two-dimensional scan of pedestal top plasma beta (β$_e$) and normalized electron density and temperature scale lengths,${a}$/${L_n}_e$, ${a}$/${L_T}_n$using CGYRO linear simulations. Mode transitions among TEM, micro-tearing mode, ion-temperature gradient mode and KBM, are observed in the 2D scan at the pedestal top. A fixed normalized growth rate for these drift-type modes is taken to determine the pedestal width scaling, which shows good consistency with the QH experimental database on pedestal heights and widths. The onset of KBM instabilities and the local E × B shear suppression criterion set the lower and upper limit for the pedestal width of standard QH-mode, wide-pedestal QH-mode and type-I ELMy H mode. A potentially higher and wider pedestal is expected from the new scaling of pedestal width. This work presents an improved understanding of the ion-scale micro-turbulence of wide-pedestal QH-mode and sheds light on a promising scenario for future reactors, including ITER and beyond.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Magnetorotational dynamo can generate large-scale vertical magnetic fields in 3D GRMHD simulations of accreting black holes

ABSTRACT Jetted astrophysical phenomena with black hole engines, including binary mergers, jetted tidal disruption events, and X-ray binaries, require a large-scale vertical magnetic field for efficient jet formation. However, a dynamo mechanism that could generate these crucial large-scale magnetic fields has not been identified and characterized. We have employed three-dimensional global general relativistic magnetohydrodynamical simulations of accretion discs to quantify, for the first time, a dynamo mechanism that generates large-scale magnetic fields. This dynamo mechanism primarily arises from the non-linear evolution of the magnetorotational instability (MRI). In this mechanism, large non-axisymmetric MRI-amplified shearing wave modes, mediated by the axisymmetric azimuthal magnetic field, generate and sustain the large-scale vertical magnetic field through their non-linear interactions. We identify the advection of magnetic loops as a crucial feature, transporting the large-scale vertical magnetic field from the outer regions to the inner regions of the accretion disc. This leads to a larger characteristic size of the, now advected, magnetic field when compared to the local disc height. We characterize the complete dynamo mechanism with two time-scales: one for the local magnetic field generation, $t_{\rm gen}$, and one for the large-scale scale advection, $t_{\rm adv}$. Whereas the dynamo we describe is non-linear, we explore the potential of linear mean field models to replicate its core features. Our findings indicate that traditional $\alpha$-dynamo models, often computed in stratified shearing box simulations, are inadequate and that the effective large-scale dynamics is better described by the shear current effects or stochastic $\alpha$-dynamos.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model with dynamic tensorial coefficients

A major drawback of Boussinesq-type subgrid-scale stress models used in large-eddy simulations is the inherent assumption of alignment between large-scale strain rates and filtered subgrid-stresses. A priori analyses using direct numerical simulation (DNS) data have shown that this assumption is invalid locally as subgrid-scale stresses are poorly correlated with the large-scale strain rates [J. Bardina, J. Ferziger, and W. Reynolds, Improved subgrid-scale models for large-eddy simulation, in Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference, AIAA (1980); C. Meneveau and K. Katz, Scale-invariance and turbulence models for large-eddy simulation, Ann. Rev. Fluid Mech. 32, 1 (2000)]. In the present work, a new, non-Boussinesq subgrid-scale model is presented where the model coefficients are computed dynamically. Some previous non-Boussinesq models have observed issues in providing adequate dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy [e.g., Bardina et al., Proceedings of the 13th Fluid and Plasmadynamics Conference (1980); R. A. Clark, J. Ferziger, and W.C. Reynolds. Evaluation of subgrid-scale models using an accurately simulated turbulent flow, J. Fluid Mech. 91, 1 (1979); S. Stolz and N. A. Adams, An approximate deconvolution procedure for large-eddy simulation, Phys. Fluids 11, 1699 (1999)]; however, the present model is shown to provide sufficient dissipation using dynamic coefficients. Modeled subgrid-scale Reynolds stresses satisfy the consistency requirements of the governing equations for large-eddy simulation (LES), vanish in laminar flow and at solid boundaries, and have the correct asymptotic behavior in the near-wall region of a turbulent boundary layer. The new model, referred to as the dynamic tensor-coefficient Smagorinsky model (DTCSM), has been tested in simulations of canonical flows: decaying and forced homogeneous isotropic turbulence, and wall-modeled turbulent channel flow at high Reynolds numbers. The results show favorable agreement with DNS data. It has been shown that DTCSM offers similar predictive capabilities as the dynamic Smagorinsky model for canonical flows. In order to assess the performance of DTCSM in more complex flows, wall-modeled simulations of high Reynolds number flow over a Gaussian bump (Boeing speed bump) exhibiting smooth-body flow separation are performed. Predictions of surface pressure and skin friction, compared against DNS and experimental data, show improved accuracy from DTCSM in comparison to existing static coefficient (Vreman) and dynamic Smagorinsky model. The computational cost of performing LES with this model is up to 15% higher than the dynamic Smagorinsky model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measuring scale-dependent shape anisotropy by coarse-graining: Application to inhomogeneous Rayleigh-Taylor turbulence

Here, we generalize the “filtering spectrum” to probe scales along different directions by spatial coarse-graining. This multidimensional filtering spectrum quantifies the spectral content of flows that are not necessarily homogeneous. From multidimensional spectral information, we propose a simple metric for shape anisotropy at various scales. The method is applied to simulations of two-dimensional (2D) and 3D Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) turbulence, which is inhomogeneous and anisotropic. We show that 3D RT has clear shape anisotropy at large scales with approximately 4:3 vertical to horizontal aspect ratio but tends toward isotropy at small scales as expected. In sharp contrast, we find that RT in 2D simulations, which are still the main modeling framework for many applications, is isotropic at large scales and its shape anisotropy increases at smaller scales where structures tend to be horizontally elongated. While this may be surprising, it is consistent with recent results that large-scale isotropy in 2D RT is due to the generation of a large-scale overturning circulation via an upscale cascade, while small-scale anisotropy is due to the stable stratification resultant from such overturning and the inefficient mixing in 2D.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scaling Laws of Graph Neural Networks for Atomistic Materials Modeling

Atomistic materials modeling is a critical task with wide-ranging applications, from drug discovery to materials science, where accurate predictions of the target material property can lead to significant advancements in scientific discovery. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) represent the state-of-the-art approach for modeling atomistic material data thanks to their capacity to capture complex relational structures. While machine learning performance has historically improved with larger models and datasets, GNNs for atomistic materials modeling remain relatively small compared to large language models (LLMs), which leverage billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets to achieve remarkable performance in their respective domains. To address this gap, we explore the scaling limits of GNNs for atomistic materials modeling by developing a foundational model with billions of parameters, trained on extensive datasets in terabytescale. Our approach incorporates techniques from LLM libraries to efficiently manage large-scale data and models, enabling both effective training and deployment of these large-scale GNN models. This work addresses three fundamental questions in scaling GNNs: the potential for scaling GNN model architectures, the effect of dataset size on model accuracy, and the applicability of LLM-inspired techniques to GNN architectures. Specifically, the outcomes of this study include (1) insights into the scaling laws for GNNs, highlighting the relationship between model size, dataset volume, and accuracy, (2) a foundational GNN model optimized for atomistic materials modeling, and (3) a GNN codebase enhanced with advanced LLM-based training techniques. Our findings lay the groundwork for large-scale GNNs with billions of parameters and terabyte-scale datasets, establishing a scalable pathway for future advancements in atomistic materials modeling.

Li, Chaojian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000340309777)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales

Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. Here we evaluate changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The “extra” broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly “wetting” areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in “drying” areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Assessment of the Potential for Utility-Scale Solar Energy Development on the Navajo Nation

The Navajo Nation covers about 27,000 square miles in the Southwestern United States with approximately 270 sunny days a year. Therefore, the Navajo Nation has the potential to develop utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) energy for the Navajo people and export electricity to major cities to generate revenues. In April 2019, the Navajo Nation issued a proclamation to increase residential and utility-scale renewable energy development on the Navajo Nation. In response, this research assesses the potential for utility-scale solar energy development on the Navajo Nation using criteria such as access to roads, transmission lines, slope/terrain data, aspect/direction, and culturally sensitive sites. These datasets are applied as layers using ArcGIS to identify regions that have good potential for utility-scale solar PV installations. Land availability on the Navajo Nation has been an issue for developing utility-scale solar PV, so this study proposes potential locations for solar PV and how much energy these potential sites could generate. Furthermore, two coal-fired power plants, the Navajo Generating Station and the San Juan Generating Station, will close soon and impact the Navajo Nation's energy supply and economy. This study seeks to answer two main questions: whether utility- scale solar energy could be used to replace the energy generated by both coal-fired powerplants, and what percentage of the Navajo Nation's energy demands can be met by utility-scale solar energy development? Economic development is a major concern; therefore, this study also examines what utility-scale solar development will mean for the Navajo Nation economy. The results of this study show that the Navajo Nation has a potential PV capacity of 45,729 MW to 91,459 MW. Even with the lowest calculated capacity, utility-scale solar PV has the potential to generate more than 11 times the power of the NGS and SJGS combined.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗