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DOE OSTI2024

Forest carbon sequestration on the west coast, USA: Role of species, productivity, and stockability

Forest ecosystems store large amounts of carbon and can be important sources, or sinks, of the atmospheric carbon dioxide that is contributing to global warming. Understanding the carbon storage potential of different forests and their response to management and disturbance events are fundamental to developing policies and scenarios to partially offset greenhouse gas emissions. Projections of live tree carbon accumulation are handled differently in different models, with inconsistent results. We developed growth-and-yield style models to predict stand-level live tree carbon density as a function of stand age in all vegetation types of the coastal Pacific region, US (California, Oregon, and Washington), from 7,523 national forest inventory plots. We incorporated site productivity and stockability within the Chapman-Richards equation and tested whether intensively managed private forests behaved differently from less managed public forests. We found that the best models incorporated stockability in the equation term controlling stand carrying capacity, and site productivity in the equation terms controlling the growth rate and shape of the curve. RMSEs ranged from 10 to 137 Mg C/ha for different vegetation types. There was not a significant effect of ownership over the standard industrial rotation length (~50 yrs) for the productive Douglas-fir/western hemlock zone, indicating that differences in stockability and productivity captured much of the variation attributed to management intensity. Our models suggest that doubling the rotation length on these intensively managed lands from 35 to 70 years would result in 2.35 times more live tree carbon stored on the landscape. These findings are at odds with some studies that have projected higher carbon densities with stand age for the same vegetation types, and have not found an increase in yields (on an annual basis) with longer rotations. We suspect that differences are primarily due to the application of yield curves developed from fully-stocked, undisturbed, single-species, “normal” stands without accounting for the substantial proportion of forests that don’t meet those assumptions. The carbon accumulation curves developed here can be applied directly in growth-and-yield style projection models, and used to validate the predictions of ecophysiological, cohort, or single-tree style models being used to project carbon futures for forests in the region. Our approach may prove useful for developing robust models in other forest types.

Chisholm, Paul J. (ORCID:0000000238784707)↗

NASA NTRS1988

The debate over the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary

Large-body impact on the Earth is a rare but indisputable geologic process. The impact rate is approximately known from objects discovered in Earth-crossing orbits and from the statistics of craters on the Earth's surface. Tektite and microtektite strewn fields constitute unmistakable ejecta deposits that can be due only to large-body impacts. The Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary coincides with an unusually severe biological trauma, and this stratigraphic horizon is marked on a worldwide basis by anomalous concentrations of noble metals in chondritic proportions, mineral spherules with relict quench-crystallization textures, and mineral and rock grains showing shock deformation. These features are precisely compatible with an impact origin. Although only impact explains all the types of K-T boundary evidence, the story may not be as simple as once thought. The original hypothesis envisioned one large impact, triggering one great extinction. Newer evidence hints at various complications. Different challenges are faced by the occupants of each apex of a three-cornered argument over the K-T event. Proponents of a non-impact explanation must show that the evidence fits their preferred model better than it fits the impact scenario. Proponents of the single impact-single extinction view must explain away the complications. Proponents of a more complex impact crisis must develop a reasonable scenario which honors the new evidence.

Alvarez, W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the MAST Upgrade physics programme: testing novel concepts at low aspect ratio to inform future devices

The research programme performed on the Mega Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) Upgrade experiment has made significant advances in developing the physics understanding of low aspect ratio tokamaks in support of the operation of ITER and design of fusion powerplants. High performance plasma scenarios have been developed to facilitate a broad programme of experiments, in which confinement is constrained by the presence of m/n = 2/1 modes that cause substantial losses of fast ions. The onset of these modes coincides with the q = 2 surface residing in a local minimum in the toroidal current density profile. The maximum electron temperature at the pedestal top, T e,ped is limited with gas fuelling to ∼350 eV to maintain regular ELMs; higher T e,ped results in a transition to a non-stationary ELM-free regime. The operational space of spherical tokamaks has been expanded into small and ELM-free regimes. Strong shaping of the last closed flux surface can induce a transition from large to small ELMs, and ELM suppression with resonant magnetic perturbations has been observed for the first time in a low aspect ratio tokamak. Negative triangularity shaping has induced a transition from ELMy H-mode to a high-performance L-mode regime for the first time in a low aspect ratio tokamak. In studies of fast ion confinement, losses of fast particles due to Global Alfvén Eigenmodes have been identified. Interactions between fast ions generated by off-axis neutral beam injection and thermal neutrals can result in significant losses of fast ions. Experiments with on- and off-axis neutral beam injection exhibit a flux pumping mechanism, where the central safety factor is held to ∼1 in the absence of sawteeth. In studies of pedestal physics, it has been found that elevated main chamber neutral pressures result in an increase in the electron density and reduction in the temperature at the pedestal top. Advances in understanding plasma exhaust include the integration of a high-performance plasma core with detached outer divertors in the X-point target configuration. A newly commissioned lower divertor cryopump reduces the lower divertor neutral pressure by up to 50%, with minimal effect on the main chamber or upper divertor. New measurements and SOLPS-ITER simulations emphasise the importance of plasma–neutral interactions on divertor detachment in the conditions accessible in experiments. Real-time control of the ionisation front location in both divertor chambers independently has been demonstrated in double null experiments, enabled by the tightly baffled divertor chambers.

MAST Upgrade↗

DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗

NASA NTRS2004

Transient Region Coverage in the Propulsion IVHM Technology Experiment

Over the last several years researchers at NASA Glenn and Ames Research Centers have developed a real-time fault detection and isolation system for propulsion subsystems of future space vehicles. The Propulsion IVHM Technology Experiment (PITEX), as it is called follows the model-based diagnostic methodology and employs Livingstone, developed at NASA Ames, as its reasoning engine. The system has been tested on,flight-like hardware through a series of nominal and fault scenarios. These scenarios have been developed using a highly detailed simulation of the X-34 flight demonstrator main propulsion system and include realistic failures involving valves, regulators, microswitches, and sensors. This paper focuses on one of the recent research and development efforts under PITEX - to provide more complete transient region coverage. It describes the development of the transient monitors, the corresponding modeling methodology, and the interface software responsible for coordinating the flow of information between the quantitative monitors and the qualitative, discrete representation Livingstone.

Balaban, Edward↗

NASA NTRS1985

Computer simulation of environmental, hazard scenarios in space

The development of the Advanced Computer Graphics Laboratory at NASA/JSC will enable NASA engineers to utilize state-of-the-art computer systems to simulate and analyze current and planned space missions. These systems utilize computer graphics to animate automated satellite rendezvous and docking, satellite servicing, tether operations, as well as remote manipulator activities and assembly of large space structures including the space station. These computer simulations enhance the engineering evaluation of possible hazardous scenarios in space by allowing users to view from any point in space these activities and determine if any potential problem could occur.

Brown, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Xcel Energy’s electric carbon emissions reduction trajectories in the context of 1.5°C and 2°C warming pathways

In 2015 the Paris Agreement established the goals of limiting global average warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit warming to below 1.5°C. A large and growing number of scenarios have been developed by the climate research community that explore global energy and emissions pathways that would achieve those goals. We draw on the most recent database of such scenarios to update a previous analysis of Xcel Energy’s emissions reduction goals in light of evolving climate science. We assess the outlook for the role of the US electricity sector in current economy-wide and global emissions pathways and compare it to Xcel Energy’s near-term resource plans to 2030. We find that global scenarios that achieve the 1.5°C goal span a range of US/North America electricity sector emissions reductions by 2030 of about 65-85%. Xcel Energy’s emissions reductions to date have exceeded those of the US electricity sector as a whole, and its projected trajectory to 2030 under current approved resource plans falls within this range. Scenarios achieving the 2°C goal have a wider range of reductions (about 40-85%). In scenarios achieving either goal, electricity sector emissions fall faster than economy-wide emissions, a robust feature of mitigation scenarios, which typically rely on low carbon electricity to achieve climate targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2004

MGS MAG/ER Data Analysis Using a Time and Magnetic Field Dependent Electron Transport Model

The goal of that project was to examine certain details about the dayside electron environment at Mars as seen by the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) magnetometer/electron reflectometer (MAG/ER) instrument. Specifically, we stated that we would use the Khazanov and Liemohn (K&L) kinetic electron transport model to analyze features in the observations. This code includes a non-uniform magnetic field and time-dependence in the result (different from most other models of this type). It was originally developed for electron motion along field lines in the Earth's magnetosphere (between conjugate ionospheres), and is thus quite appropriate for application to the Mars magnetic field scenario. Numerous code developments were implemented and the Mars version of the K&L model is fully operational. Initial results from this code have focused on the examination of MGS MAG/ER observations in the crustal field region when it is on the dayside. After several presentations at scientific meetings, this study culminated in a JGR publication last year.

Liemohn, Michael W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mars Pathfinder mission operations concepts

The Mars Pathfinder Project plans a December 1996 launch of a single spacecraft. After jettisoning a cruise stage, an entry body containing a lander and microrover will directly enter the Mars atmosphere and parachute to a hard landing near the sub-solar latitude of 15 degrees North in July 1997. Primary surface operations last for 30 days. Cost estimates for Pathfinder ground systems development and operations are not only lower in absolute dollars, but also are a lower percentage of total project costs than in past planetary missions. Operations teams will be smaller and fewer than typical flight projects. Operations scenarios have been developed early in the project and are being used to guide operations implementation and flight system design. Recovery of key engineering data from entry, descent, and landing is a top mission priority. These data will be recorded for playback after landing. Real-time tracking of a modified carrier signal through this phase can provide important insight into the spacecraft performance during entry, descent, and landing in the event recorded data is never recovered. Surface scenarios are dominated by microrover activity and lander imaging during 7 hours of the Mars day from 0700 to 1400 local solar time. Efficient uplink and downlink processes have been designed to command the lander and microrover each Mars day.

Sturms, Francis M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Eastern Airlines LOFT program

Beginning with scenario design and development issues, Eastern Airlines committed itself to the full four-hour LOFT training format without the additional time for specific maneuvers. Abnormals and emergency conditions, pacing, and quiet periods are included in the scenarios which are written for the instructor to follow verbatim. Simulator capabilities, performance assessment; training vs. checking; crew composition and scheduling; satisfactory completion; the use of video performance printouts; the number of instructors; instructor training and standardization; and initial, transition, and upgrade training are discussed.

Beach, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Education and Public Outreach and Engagement at NASA's Analog Missions in 2012

Analog missions are integrated, multi-disciplinary activities that test key features of future human space exploration missions in an integrated fashion to gain a deeper understanding of system-level interactions and operations early in conceptual development. These tests often are conducted in remote and extreme environments that are representative in one or more ways to that of future spaceflight destinations. They may also be conducted at NASA facilities, using advanced modeling and human-in-the-loop scenarios. As NASA develops a capability driven framework to transport crew to a variety of space environments, it will use analog missions to gather requirements and develop the technologies necessary to ensure successful exploration beyond low Earth orbit. NASA s Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Division conducts these high-fidelity integrated tests, including the coordination and execution of a robust education and public outreach (EPO) and engagement program for each mission. Conducting these mission scenarios in unique environments not only provides an opportunity to test the EPO concepts for the particular future-mission scenario, such as the best methods for conducting events with a communication time delay, but it also provides an avenue to deliver NASA s human space exploration key messages. These analogs are extremely exciting to students and the public, and they are performed in such a way that the public can feel like part of the mission. They also provide an opportunity for crew members to obtain training in education and public outreach activities similar to what they would perform in space. The analog EPO team is responsible for the coordination and execution of the events, the overall social media component for each mission, and public affairs events such as media visits and interviews. They also create new and exciting ways to engage the public, manage and create website content, coordinate video footage for missions, and coordinate and integrate each activity into the mission timeline. In 2012, the AES Analog Missions Project performed three distinct missions - NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO), which simulated a mission to an asteroid using an undersea laboratory; In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) Field Test, which simulated a robotic mission to the moon searching and drilling for water; and Research and Technology Studies (RATS) integrated tests, which also simulated a mission to an asteroid. This paper will discuss the education and public engagement that occurred during these missions.

Watkins, Wendy L.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A Mercury orbiter mission design

The paper presents the results of the first stage of a Mercury Orbiter Mission Concept Definition study originated by NASA, with emphasis on a proposed end-to-end mission scenario. The science rationale and the strawman payload are presented, along with the spacecraft design based on a novel use of conventional technology that eliminates the need for high-cost high-risk technology development. A mission scenario demonstrating the capability of conducting desired science investigations is addressed. It is shown that complete imaging coverage of the planet at 1-km or better resolution, and with at least three different phase angles, is possible. Focus is placed on launch period analysis, mission performance, and mission opportunities.

Yen, Chen-Wan L.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Man-Vehicle Systems Research Facility - Design and operating characteristics

This paper describes the full-mission flight simulation facility at the NASA Ames Research Center. The Man-Vehicle Systems Research Facility (MVSRF) supports aeronautical human factors research and consists of two full-mission flight simulators and an air-traffic-control simulator. The facility is used for a broad range of human factors research in both conventional and advanced aviation systems. The objectives of the research are to improve the understanding of the causes and effects of human errors in aviation operations, and to limit their occurrence. The facility is used to: (1) develop fundamental analytical expressions of the functional performance characteristics of aircraft flight crews; (2) formulate principles and design criteria for aviation environments; (3) evaluate the integration of subsystems in contemporary flight and air traffic control scenarios; and (4) develop training and simulation technologies.

Shiner, Robert J.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of physics results from MAST upgrade towards core-pedestal-exhaust integration

Recent results from MAST Upgrade are presented, emphasising understanding the capabilities of this new device and deepening understanding of key physics issues for the operation of ITER and the design of future fusion power plants. The impact of MHD instabilities on fast ion confinement have been studied, including the first observation of fast ion losses correlated with Compressional and Global Alfvén Eigenmodes. High-performance plasma scenarios have been developed by tailoring the early plasma current ramp phase to avoid internal reconnection events, resulting in a more monotonic q profile with low central shear. The impact of m/n = 3/2, 2/1 and 1/1 modes on thermal plasma confinement and rotation profiles has been quantified, and scenarios optimised to avoid them have transiently reached values of normalised beta approaching 4.2. In pedestal and ELM physics, a maximum pedestal top temperature of ~350 eV has been achieved, exceeding the value achieved on MAST at similar heating power. Mitigation of type-I ELMs with n = 1 RMPs has been observed. Studies of plasma exhaust have concentrated on comparing conventional and Super-X divertor configurations, while X-point target, X-divertor and snowflake configurations have been developed and studied in parallel. In L-mode discharges, the separatrix density required to detach the outer divertors is approximately a factor 2 lower in the Super-X than the conventional configuration, in agreement with simulations. Detailed analysis of spectroscopy data from studies of the Super-X configuration reveal the importance of including plasma-molecule interactions and D 2 Fulcher band emission to properly quantify the rates of ionisation, plasma-molecule interactions and volumetric recombination processes governing divertor detachment. In H-mode with conventional and Super-X configurations, the outer divertors are attached in the former and detached in the latter with no impact on core or pedestal confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1981

Fuel quality processing study, volume 1

A fuel quality processing study to provide a data base for an intelligent tradeoff between advanced turbine technology and liquid fuel quality, and also, to guide the development of specifications of future synthetic fuels anticipated for use in the time period 1985 to 2000 is given. Four technical performance tests are discussed: on-site pretreating, existing refineries to upgrade fuels, new refineries to upgrade fuels, and data evaluation. The base case refinery is a modern Midwest refinery processing 200,000 BPD of a 60/40 domestic/import petroleum crude mix. The synthetic crudes used for upgrading to marketable products and turbine fuel are shale oil and coal liquids. Of these syncrudes, 50,000 BPD are processed in the existing petroleum refinery, requiring additional process units and reducing petroleum feed, and in a new refinery designed for processing each syncrude to produce gasoline, distillate fuels, resid fuels, and turbine fuel, JPGs and coke. An extensive collection of synfuel properties and upgrading data was prepared for the application of a linear program model to investigate the most economical production slate meeting petroleum product specifications and turbine fuels of various quality grades. Technical and economic projections were developed for 36 scenarios, based on 4 different crude feeds to either modified existing or new refineries operated in 2 different modes to produce 7 differing grades of turbine fuels. A required product selling price of turbine fuel for each processing route was calculated. Procedures and projected economics were developed for on-site treatment of turbine fuel to meet limitations of impurities and emission of pollutants.

Ohara, J. B.↗